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State merit aid programs have been found to reduce the likelihood that students attend college out-of-state. Using the U.S. News & World Report rankings of colleges and universities to measure college quality and Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System data to measure enrollment, we explore how this reduction in out-of-state enrollment differs by the academic quality of the institution. Our results suggest that state merit aid programs do not reduce the likelihood that a student attends a top ranked school, but that these programs do reduce the likelihood of enrolling at less prestigious out-of-state schools, with generally larger effects the lower the ranking of the schools.

We examine the effects of recently adopted state merit-based financial aid programs on college attendance and degree completion. Our primary analysis uses microdata from the 2000 Census and 2001-2010 American Community Survey to estimate the effects of merit programs on educational outcomes for 25 merit aid adopting states. We also utilize administrative data for the University System of Georgia to look more in depth at the effects of the HOPE Scholarship on degree completion in Georgia. We find strong consistent evidence that state merit aid programs have no meaningfully positive effect on college completion. Coefficient estimates for our preferred specifications are small and statistically insignificant. State merit aid programs do not appear to increase the percentage of young people with a college education.

Analyzes how state and local governments responded to the economic conditions and political movements of the 1980's. Speculates whether the 1990's will be an extension of the 1980's, or whether there are new forces that will break these trends.