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A quantum version of the Monge--Kantorovich optimal transport problem is analyzed. The transport cost is minimized over the set of all bipartite coupling states $\rho^{AB}$, such that both of its reduced density matrices $\rho^A$ and $\rho^B$ of dimension $N$ are fixed. We show that, selecting the quantum cost matrix to be proportional to the projector on the antisymmetric subspace, the minimal transport cost leads to a semidistance between $\rho^A$ and $\rho^B$, which is bounded from below by the rescaled Bures distance and from above by the root infidelity. In the single qubit case we provide a semi-analytic expression for the optimal transport cost between any two states and prove that its square root satisfies the triangle inequality and yields an analogue of the Wasserstein distance of order two on the set of density matrices. We introduce an associated measure of proximity of quantum states, called SWAP-fidelity, and discuss its properties and applications in quantum machine learning., Comment: 15 pages including appendices, 4 figures. Version v2 includes a new quantity, SWAP-fidelity, and some applications

We consider the exact recovery problem in the hypergraph stochastic block model (HSBM) with k blocks of equal size. More precisely, we consider a random d-uniform hypergraph H with n vertices partitioned into k clusters of size s = n / k . Hyperedges e are added independently with probability p if e is contained within a single cluster and q otherwise, where 0 ≤ q p ≤ 1 . We present a spectral algorithm which recovers the clusters exactly with high probability, given mild conditions on n , k , p , q , and d. Our algorithm is based on the adjacency matrix of H, which is a symmetric n × n matrix whose ( u , v ) -th entry is the number of hyperedges containing both u and v. To the best of our knowledge, our algorithm is the first to guarantee exact recovery when the number of clusters k = Θ ( n ) .

In the planted partition problem, the $n$ vertices of a random graph are partitioned into $k$ "clusters," and edges between vertices in the same cluster and different clusters are included with constant probability $p$ and $q$, respectively (where $0 \le q < p \le 1$). We give an efficient spectral algorithm that recovers the clusters with high probability, provided that the sizes of any two clusters are either very close or separated by $\geq \Omega(\sqrt n)$. We also discuss a generalization of planted partition in which the algorithm's input is not a random graph, but a random real symmetric matrix with independent above-diagonal entries. Our algorithm is an adaptation of a previous algorithm for the uniform case, i.e., when all clusters are size $n / k \geq \Omega(\sqrt n)$. The original algorithm recovers the clusters one by one via iterated projection: it constructs the orthogonal projection operator onto the dominant $k$-dimensional eigenspace of the random graph's adjacency matrix, uses it to recover one of the clusters, then deletes it and recurses on the remaining vertices. We show herein that a similar algorithm works in the nonuniform case., Comment: 22 pages, 4 figures

Suppose that $T$ is a stochastic matrix. We propose an algorithm for identifying clusters in the Markov chain associated with $T$. The algorithm is recursive in nature, and in order to identify clusters, it uses the sign pattern of a left singular vector associated with the second smallest singular value of the Laplacian matrix $I-T.$ We prove a number of results that justify the algorithm's approach, and illustrate the algorithm's performance with several numerical examples., Comment: 41 pages, 10 figures

This chapter explains and estimates a model of accommodation clusters in tourist destinations. The model variables describe a destination’s intrinsic attraction, synergies between tourism activities, increasing congestion and capacity, and competition-driven technical changes. The model engages technology parameters at four physical scales, global markets for capital and visitors, regional destinations and innovations, destination-level clustering, and characteristic accommodation size. Parameters are estimated across 20 Caribbean destinations from 1986 to 1996. Combined with island-specific tourism policies, the model plausibly backcasts earlier tourism development for Aruba reproduces overshoot in accommodations in the late-1980s, and the following decade of disruptive fluctuations. Although the model over-estimates current hotel accommodation, the excess matches emergent uncontrolled growth of “alternative” accommodation, primarily condominiums, and vacation rentals. This case study illustrates how the cluster model’s components and parameters influence critical junctures in the growth trajectory of destinations.

The present study uses concurrent think-aloud verbal protocols alongside post-hoc interviews to explore how six teacher-raters determine a students' ability to explain academic concepts and argue for an academic stance supported by sources during a 25-minute group tertiary academic tutorial oral assessment. We explored how the raters arrived at decisions regarding the quality of students' academic stance and engagement in light of difficulties with rater attention in real-time, L2 language concerns, assessing engagement in a group oral setting, and the use of spoken citation to support speakers’ claims. Substantial differences in rater practice, beliefs and interpretation of assessment criteria were all found during the assessment of student performance, confirming a number of difficulties faced by raters assessing the academic ability of multiple participants over lengthy extended, interactional discourse. The findings shed real-time conceptions of (un)successful academic stance and engagement in group oral contexts, as well as confirm the usefulness of verbal protocols in revealing previously hidden complications for group oral assessments in an academic context, with accompanying suggestions for resolving such complications.

This chapter presents a method for modelling resilience in economic systems confronted by multiple irregular shocks. For this, investment portfolio theory is reformulated as a protected production function. This function determines the share of output that is dedicated to protection as economic agents attempt to maintain their preferred level of consumption and safety in the face of exogenous hazards. With this, resilience becomes the ability of production to withstand and recover from the repeated shocks. This mechanism is illustrated via model comprising aggregated domestic sector and a single export sector trading with a larger regional system. Solving the model, first as a comparative static system gives multiple stable and unstable equilibrium solutions for the level of economic activity. Equating these solutions gives the level of protection that offers greatest well-being. This production–protection relationship is then incorporated into a time-step simulation showing how the economy evolves in response to random shocks and concatenated disturbances, including irregular collapses beyond the desired resilience regime. Within this dynamic model, solutions to the static model appear as weak attractors. Thus, a further contribution of the paper is that it bridges between equilibrium and evolutionary economics, and comparable challenges in other disciplines. The method is advanced as a closure for a social accounting-event matrix based approach.

Purpose: To examine the impact of a nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) enhancement on quit outcomes. Design: Observational study using an intent to treat as treated analysis. Setting: Not available. Participants: A total of 4022 Idaho tobacco users aged ≥18 years who received services from the Idaho Tobacco Quitline or Idaho’s web-based program. Intervention: One-call phone or web-based participants were sent a single 4- or 8-week NRT shipment. Multiple-call participants were sent NRT in a single 4-week shipment or two 4-week shipments (second shipment sent only to those completing a second coaching call). Measures: North American Quitline Consortium recommended Minimal Data Set items collected at registration and follow-up. Thirty-day point prevalence quit rates were assessed at 7-month follow-up. Analysis: Multiple logistic regression models were used to examine the effects of program type and amount of NRT sent to participants while controlling for demographic and tobacco use characteristics. Results: Abstinence rates were significantly higher among 8-week versus 4-week NRT recipients (42.5% vs 33.3%). The effect was only significant between multiple-call program participants who received both 4-week NRT shipments versus only the first of 2 possible 4-week shipments (51.1% vs 31.1%). Costs per quit were lowest among web-based participants who received 4 weeks of NRT (US$183 per quit) and highest among multiple-call participants who received only 1 of 2 possible NRT shipments (US$557 per quit). Conclusion: To better balance cost with clinical effectiveness, funders of state-based tobacco cessation services may want to consider (1) allowing tobacco users to choose between phone- and web-based programs while (2) limiting longer NRT benefits only to multiple-call program participants.

Purpose: To describe changes in health-related quality of life (HRQOL) related to variation in demographic characteristics, program goals, and program participation, among health coaching program participants. Design: A retrospective observational study of a health coaching program. Setting and Participants: A total of 2169 adults enrolled in an individually purchased or employer-sponsored health plan from a large health and well-being company, who participated in a health coaching program between January 2016 and April 2017. Intervention: The health coaching program used evidence-based behavior change strategies to encourage skill development, self-monitoring, and goal setting/achievement. Health coaching program modalities included online and telephonic coaching sessions. Measures: Demographic characteristics (gender, age, race, income), goal categories (weight management, fitness, nutrition, stress management, other), program modality (online, telephonic, both), engagement level (low, medium, high), and Healthy Days, a validated HRQOL measure developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Analysis: t Tests, mixed analysis of variance (ANOVA). Results: There were significant ( P < .05) reductions in average total unhealthy days (UHDs) across all goal categories. Mixed ANOVAs identified a significant main effect for time, for all demographic characteristics ( P values < .05), and a significant effect for program modality ( P < .0001), time ( P < .0001), and interaction effects, between program modality and time, on average UHD ( P = .01). Conclusion: Our findings indicate significant reductions in UHD, following 6 months of health coaching, and support the use of HRQOL measures, which are known to be highly correlated with traditional measures of health, to evaluate health coaching programs.

This paper describes the goals and development of a rural tourism Studio for Masters-level students in the Southern Tier of Western New York over the last decade. The main goal of the Studios has been to explore how tourism may be used to promote general economic development in a relatively impoverished rural area and so help to improve living conditions, including housing. The studio experience is considered to be an important part of the preparation for a career in planning. Studios almost always enter into, and attempt to contribute to, an ongoing planning and development process and are undertaken with the cooperation of local communities and agencies. The paper describes the background of students, their disciplinary skills and work experience, ethnic, age and geographic mix, and general unfamiliarity with rural issues. Also described are the various constraints and compromises with respect to course requirements and schedules, location, local participation and engaging communities. The paper...

Transmission-line modelling (TLM) is a valuable technique for numerical simulation of electromagnetic fields. Recently, investigations have been successfully carried out into the use of the TLM approach on unstructured meshes However, as the local characteristics of mesh geometry will clearly make an impact upon the fidelity of simulations, it is necessary to examine suitable techniques for mesh optimisation. Three different methods have been investigated here to find optimal meshes for subsequent TLM simulations: the centroidal Voronoi Tessellation method, the optimal Delaunay triangulation method and a spring relaxation method. These different techniques are assessed in terms of maximum efficiency of the subsequent TLM simulations and the computational cost that is incurred to identify them. Several different canonical examples of mesh are considered to determine the generality of the conclusions drawn.

Discussion of agglomeration and clustering in the tourist area life cycle (TALC) literature has not led to a corresponding change of the principal equation used to formalize the model. This paper proposes a modification that accounts for the synergies between the accommodation, entertainment, and other components of a tourist destination. The modified model is contrasted with the original TALC and estimated for a cross-section of Caribbean and other island destinations. Estimations based on visitor expenditures and experts' evaluations of destination authenticity are compared. The results illustrate how parameters representing synergy and congestion vary across tourism styles and time. The implications for destination growth are illustrated by comparing the solution to the proposed model with the TALC. The model exposes a core dilemma that while destinations should realize positive synergies to achieve self-sustaining growth, with this threshold achieved, the resulting pace of investment may drive destinations to overshoot, and uneven growth.

The paper aims to offer a good guideline for anyone who intends to do a futures or a foresight exercise for rural communities. The case presented is the one of the future of rural communities in Romania. The article begins with a brief presentation of the prevailing rural situation in Romania followed by a dialogue regarding suggestions for the possible objectives of a foresight exercise and the methods used (e.g. visioning, alternative futures, scenarios).

At a round table discussion that took place in Bucharest during a mutual learning workshop, on 9th–11th of June 2010, around 15 futurists were asked to look at this picture of a little African girl. It appears on the cover of UNESCO's Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010, which has the specific title: ‘Reaching the Marginalized’. The futurists were asked: how would you justify the work you do to the girl in the photograph. Here are some of the answers.

This commentary responds to some of the issues raised in Zia Sardar's paper “Welcome to Postnormal Times” noting and attempting to explain points of difference and similarity. From Sardar's invocation of the 3C's of complexity, chaos and contradiction emerges the idea that our postnormal times might be likened to the strange times following the Great Plague that gave rise to the Alliterative Revival. Speculating further, it is questioned whether, in such strange times, utopian futures studies substitute for prayer.

This paper explores suggestions in the literature that the tourism industry is “chaotic” by transforming a previously developed resort model into discrete logistic equation (DLE), a widely researched chaos model. Given parameters characteristic of the industry, the logistic tourism model (LTM) explains, for example, the hesitant take-off of tourism, the role of agglomeration during the rapid growth phase, and why even in maturity, with slower average growth, a resort maintains its high growth potential and propensity for chaos. These and other findings suggest that globalizing industries, such as tourism, may exhibit quite different dynamics from those captured by traditional growth models or localized supply-demand elasticity models.

Our paper outlines the preparation of a Framework for Sustainable Tourism on the Caribbean Island of Aruba from the standpoint of futurists involved in public policy. Despite remarkable success with tourism over nearly half-a century, Arubans have become periodically concerned about the long-run sustainability of their major industry, their culture, and their Island. The paper explains the historic industrial epochs that have led to the demographic layering and cultural division of labor, the development of tourism from its beginnings in the 1950s, and to present-day concerns about over-development and migration behind the setting up of a National Tourism Council (NTC) in 2001. The basic issues confronted by the NTC were set within the overarching question of “how far and how fast” tourism in Aruba could or should expand. Following on from three exploratory scenarios, the Framework prepared by the authors makes proposals for expansion of tourism in distinctive culture regions and corresponding tourism products over the next two generations of Arubans at a pace that matches emerging needs, but below the carrying capacity of the Island. The paper explains the historic context, pragmatic assumptions made, empirical evidence used, and connects the approach to other papers in this issue.

This paper seeks the Zeitgeist of Futures from 1968 to the present. The primary effort is to discern the topics addressed by Futures over the years, how these have changed, what methods, time horizons, and moods are expressed. One goal is to shed light on questions such as whether FUTURES, or “futures studies” in general, anticipates the future or simply adds commentary on the present. If the former, by how much: if the latter, is the commentary useful? Another goal, assuming the answer is positive is to assess whether articles in FUTURES provide a “data base” for scenario building, modeling, or Delphi? Although the starting point addressed in this article is to explore trends in the use of vocabulary, and its correlations with “real world events” the goal is to comprehend connections and associations as revealed in FUTURES articles, as a step toward paradigm recognition and Zeitgeist.

Most futures methodologies might be termed “heuristic”, that is a way to promote learning, discovery, and problem solving through trial and error. This paper describes one such approach, used primarily in teaching a Masters planning program class Global Issues and Futures in a class designed to raise awareness of a variety of global concerns. After explaining the underlying framework and concepts, and their foundation in previous futures studies, the core equations, data, and a classroom application are described. The method serves primarily to raise questions rather than answer them; to broaden the perspective that students will bring to their later careers. 1

This paper explains and implements a portfolio-based framework for analyzing the progression and consequences of disruptions to small-region economies. The first section discusses the underlying relationship between hazards, events, protection, disruptions, and disasters in regional economic systems. Such systems typically are adaptive in that they constantly adjust their levels and patterns of protection and compensation to changes in the frequency and magnitude of disruptions. The section explains how portfolio theory may be re-conceptualized to address policy choices related to the above issues. The second section explains conceptual issues in defining variables and specifying the production function balancing performance and protection. This function in turn defines the optimal expenditure for each actor against which their risk-tolerance is measured. Potential “tipping points” from singularly large or cascaded shocks, including disruptions from “lumpy” investment, suggest disaster-mitigating strategies that maximize societal utility or reduce tendencies to major disaster. In the third section, this theory is implemented empirically as a computer simulation model for a stylized open economy driven by tourism and oil refining. The simulations show how the potential for major disruptions varies with policy, increasing rapidly with the risk-propensity of policy makers. They also suggest how appropriate regional economic policy, notably rebalancing and export portfolio and rescheduling major investments, might reduce the likelihood of such events.

In this paper, we consider the planted partition model, in which $n = ks$ vertices of a random graph are partitioned into $k$ "clusters," each of size $s$. Edges between vertices in the same cluster and different clusters are included with constant probability $p$ and $q$, respectively (where $0 \le q < p \le 1$). We give an efficient algorithm that, with high probability, recovers the clusters as long as the cluster sizes are are least $\Omega(\sqrt{n})$. Informally, our algorithm constructs the projection operator onto the dominant $k$-dimensional eigenspace of the graph's adjacency matrix and uses it to recover one cluster at a time. To our knowledge, our algorithm is the first purely spectral algorithm which runs in polynomial time and works even when $s = \Theta(\sqrt n)$, though there have been several non-spectral algorithms which accomplish this. Our algorithm is also among the simplest of these spectral algorithms, and its proof of correctness illustrates the usefulness of the Cauchy integral formula in this domain., Comment: 21 pages + title page

My paper describes a portfolio theoretic framework for exploring the causes and consequences of major disruptions on regions and communities. The approach can be related to theories of financial portfolio management, optimal insurance, moral hazard, and ambiguous uncertainty, and the empirical literature on sustainable livelihoods, robust engineering, and disaster management. The present paper explains how Markowitz (1959) portfolio management theory may be adapted to the situation of a small region facing periodic and irregular disruptions in local and export markets, and used to select a portfolio of disaster mitigating strategies that maximize societal utility. This theory is implemented empirically using a computer simulation model. Model simulations show how the potential for major disruptions varies with economic policy, increasing rapidly with the risk-propensity of policy-makers or policies that increase the likelihood of concatenated events. Moreover, strategies that reduce ambiguity or ...

In a recent paper in Futures, Chenoweth and Feitelson test of the validity of the projections of the Global 2000 Report to the President and The Resourceful Earth: A Response to Global 2000 . This commentary critiques their approach, focusing on their comparison of the two studies' Year 2000 projections, and the pitfalls for near-term tests of long-term projections. Empirically, their paper does little to resolve the neo-Malthusian and Cornucopian debate. Nonetheless, given the past history of this acrimonious debate, their conclusions may undermine current efforts to balance global economic, social, and environmental concerns.

My paper The delayed impacts of plant closures in a reformulated Leontief model showed that the time-varying impacts of changes to a regional economy could be approximated usefully by a simple elaboration of the Leontief inverse (Cole, 1988). I have applied the method in a variety of situations, typically to calculate the shifts in community income and its distribution following a major catastrophe. In all cases I use a single or multi-region social accounting matrix. Since Jackson et al (1997) have been unable to reproduce my results I shall begin with a step-by-step demonstration. Then I shall show that their failure lies in their treatment of the external (rest-of- world) sector. This appears to arise from their overly restrictive definition of input-output analysis in relation to other types of model, and their confusion as to the difference between simplification, approximation, and model validation.

In Closing the Case on Closure in Cole's Model Randall Jackson and Moss Madden critique my solution to the time-lagged regional input-output model. My rebuttal demonstrates that they: i) interpret my model incorrectly, ii) are inconsistent in their own specification, and iii) make inapplicable numerical comparisons between short- and long-term solutions. I show also iv) the correct solution to the totally closed model is neither trivial, nor singular, and v) this resolves the apparent paradox of infinite multipliers in a finite world. Moreover, vi) in my model, injecting exogenous demands equal to export earnings correctly reproduces the base output levels. The standard model does not meet this test.

The paper uses a reformulated input-output approach to calculate the medium-run regional economic impact of plant closures or similar changes taking nun account expenditure lags. The approach lends to a straightforward modification of the generalized Lecontief inverse method. An example is used show that the inclusion of expenditure lags m impact analysis ran he quite substantial and that the usual approach of partitioning the accounts into infinitely last and infinitely slow activities, and the Consequent assumption that equilibrium is reached, is an especially weak approximation. Revising the contribution of all activities to account for expenditure lags changes both short- and medium-term predictions by up to a factor of two. The approach has a variety of applications, but may be especially useful for calculating the distributed impact over time on household income, local taxes, employment, and other businesses.

Explores possibilities for simulating the effects of continuous disruptions to an economy using a multi‐sector social accounting model. The underlying thesis for the model is that disruptions (due to events ranging from potholes to earthquakes) are a constant and unavoidable aspect of development and that all institutions and production activities are structured and adapt over time so as to balance performance and protection. The first sections explain the role of input‐output tables, especially social accounts, as the basic framework for evaluating systemic vulnerability to disaster. The next sections explain the underlying behavioral components of the model: how the profile of protection versus disruption and costs of protection are determined, and how adaptation of the protection profile to changing events and societal discounting affects protection. In the final sections, these elements are integrated into a multi‐sector social accounting model of the Niagara Frontier region of New York State – affected by industrial decline and currency fluctuations is dependent on a major hydro‐electric power facility that is considered vulnerable to a variety of unscheduled events. Results focus on how disruptions and responses to them propagate over time and between actors.

Futures studies and planning follow parallel and sometimes overlapping paths. Both are idealistic activities seeking to make people's futures more secure and more fulfilling. Many futurists wish that their dreams could be implemented, and many planners dream that their work could be less shortsighted and parochial. If only to fulfill these needs, these groups should pay more attention to each other. In this article, I attempt to strengthen the bridge between futurists and planners. My observations come from the perspective of someone with a professional and pedagogical interest in both planning and futures studies. I illustrate past, current, and potential contributions of futures studies to planning as follows: (1) the beginnings of futures studies in science fiction films, journals, and international development; (2) the role of envisioning, polling, and forecasting methods; and (3) the challenges of linking futures studies methods to planning. I then argue for a diverse approach in terms of me...

I explain how object-oriented mapping may be carried out in spreadsheets, by use of simple user-created maps and macros. The method has uses for teaching, research, and policy. The advantage over current add-in mapping is that the macros can be written by users with basic spreadsheet skills, the procedures are relatively fast, new maps may be drawn or imported, and the macros can be adapted to a variety of applications such as real-time animation, or used in planning situations where ‘time is of the essence’. The paper raises a number of issues as to the inflexibility of some GIS modeling capabilities and spreadsheet mapping capability. The approach is illustrated for Quattro Pro for Windows and Excel with Visual Basic, with two classroom applications, and extensions to decision support, animation, and cellular modeling.

In this paper, a review of mechatronics is presented with emphasis on the desired qualities of university graduates as viewed by industry. A detailed description of a sequence of two new courses on automotive mechatronic systems and a specialized laboratory are discussed. The new coursework has been added to the curriculum towards the degree of systems engineer at Oakland University and will be first offered in Fall '97. The development of the courses and the laboratory has been supported by Ford Motor Company.

Geographers deal with global and local space and their interrelationships and thus bring new insights, perspectives, and methods to global questions. This is appealing to futurists since the principle of ‘think globally-act locally’ has been an inspiration for many years. In this paper I explore how old and new approaches in geography, as well as new information technologies such as the World Wide Web (WWW) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), might contribute to global modeling. I briefly review also the history of global economy models to discover lessons for future attempts to construct global models, not least how prevailing paradigms and institutional expediency determine the intellectual effort, and its impact. I then describe some of the new directions being undertaken by global modelers, quantitative geographers and regional scientists in the 1990s, and the possibilities and challenges for the next few years, and their contribution to the knowledge building process and its context.

This paper1 describes a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based method for evaluating disaster preparedness and recovery strategies. The first section of the paper explains the overall approach and its extension to the evaluation of specific components of lifeline systems in a small Caribbean island. The next section explains the relationship between the physical and economic parameters of the energy-electricity-water lifelines and the tourism sector on the island and describes the construction of the corresponding accounting framework. The diachronic multipliers calculated from this extended matrix are used to determine the impact of potential hazards for tourism and other economic activities on the island. The case of a water storage tank, providing back-up supply to the major hotels, is used to illustrate the approach. In the final sections, the example is elaborated to highlight trade-offs between economic and non-economic costs for particular businesses or households. The events and strategies described then may be combined into an event-based scenario analysis.

This study attempts to validate an academic group tutorial discussion speaking test for undergraduate freshmen students taking initial EAP training at a university in Hong Kong in terms of task, rater and criterion validity. Three quantitative measures (Cronbach’s Alpha, Intraclass Correlation Coefficient, and Exploratory Factor Analysis) are used to assess validity of rater scores for the test using a rubric with considerations for assessment of academic stance presentation, inter-candidate interaction, and individual language proficiency. These results are triangulated with post-hoc interview data from the raters regarding the difficulties they face assessing individual proficiency and group interaction over time. The results suggest that current provisions of the rubric in dealing with the assessment of interaction in group settings (namely visual cues such as “active listening” as well as provisions for interruptions in the form of “domination”) are problematic, and that raters are unable to separate the grading of academic stance from the grading of language concerns. We also note affective and cognitive difficulties involved with assessing extended periods of interactional discourse including student talking time (or lack of it), the group dynamic, and raters” personal beliefs and practice as threats to validity that the statistical measurements were unable to capture. A new sample rubric and further suggestions for improving the validity of group tutorial assessments are provided.

This essay discusses some aspects of the World Commission on Culture and Development (WCCD), a major UN initiative. It describes, in particular, the fate of a proposal to establish a General Agreement on Culture and Development (GACD) similar to other international agreements, but which takes a ‘bottom-up’ rather than a ‘top-down’ approach to negotiation. The proposed GACD would contribute to the resolution of culture-related crises and promote new directions for development based on cultural diversity and shared global values. The aim of the essay is: to indicate the aims and progress of the Commission; to consider how cultural futures-oriented thinking might assist in the conceptualization of a GACD; and to reflect on how different voices within the world community affect the progress of such initiatives and proposals.

In this paper, a method for adapting a mesh to the fields and physical conditions of suitable problems are investigated. A new meshing scheme is introduced that will allow the sampling points of an Unstructured Transmission Line Modelling simulation to be adapted while the simulation is in progress. Two mesh adaptation methods are investigated, namely the Centroidal Voronoi Tessellation and the Optimal Delaunay Triangulation techniques. Based on these results an improved mesh adaptation using absolute field pattern, and ensuring a constant mesh topology that is critical for the UTLM simulation, has been devised. The investigations and results are presented for two-dimensional (2D) cylindrical metal resonators.

I. INTRODUCTION The cultural accounting matrix approach (CAM) in the present study is a version of the extended input-output, or social accounting matrix approach, that analysts widely apply at the national and regional levels. Hicks (1942) introduced the term "social accounting." Subsequently, Stone and his co-workers (United Nations, 1953, 1968; Stone, 1973) extended this concept to develop the System of National Accounts (SNA) framework. The innovation of cross-tabulating the conventional double entry national accounting system into a single entry social accounting matrix created both improvements in accounting consistency and the opportunity to understand the role of particular economic flows. This technique thus extended Leontief's (1951) input-output system and offered a new tool for understanding the relationship between economic change and social distribution (Pyatt and Roe, 1977). Adapting SNA to the situation of less developed countries requires rethinking many international sectoral and social classifications in order to reflect local circumstances, available data, and policy needs (see Ward, 1977; Adelman et al., 1988). The taxonomy of the CAM and the corresponding cultural division of labor introduced here originates from anthropologists in the tradition of Furnival (1948), Herskovits (1961), and Glazier (1985). These authors write of the interrelationships and the correlations between economic, political, and social relationships as a function of cultural identity. For these authors, culture is not a primary trait but is part of an adaptive behavior by a group and by those who interact with it. This adaptive behavior often serves as a social construct to maintain existing segmentation--for example, through kinship and ethnic affiliations (see Glazier, 1985). One can compare this assumption to that of economists who argue that economic segmentation is perpetuated because it is functional in reproducing a capitalist hegemony (Reich et al., 1973) or that the very exclusiveness of groups with access to specific incentives determines their likelihood to act in a group-interested manner (Olson, 1971). In the context of this paper, the cultural division of labor is the set of economic interactions between ethnically identifiable populations (see Hechter, 1978). If these populations have markedly different and persistent economic characteristics and/or relationships with the economy, then the cultural division of labor is segmented. This segmentation may be both vertical and horizontal and may exist on both the supply- and the demand-side of an economy. Horizontal segmentation exists on the supply-side of an economy when people of particular cultures are associated with particular sectors of production--for example, when indigenous people predominate in traditional activities, such as Europeans in manufacturing and Asians in commerce. Vertical segmentation has arisen, for example, when an economy is largely owned and run by Europeans but operated by indigenous people or non-European immigrants. A related characteristic of vertical segmentation arises when people with comparable skills or education but of different ethnicity, gender, or religion receive different wages for the same work. Such a marked vertical cultural division of labor implies uneven wealth distribution and social inequalities. Orthodox theory does not explain the persistence of this segmentation (see Arrow, 1971; Atkinson, 1980). Explaining segmentation typically requires some analysis of the historical evolution of the economy (see Reich et al., 1973). A cultural division of labor is not confined to small societies. However, the divisions often are sharper and sometimes easier to measure empirically, and some of the institutional factors are more apparent (Benedict, 1978; Henry, 1989). Indeed, culture related factors permeate a small economy. In small islands, the problems of scale (see Kuznets, 1969; Jalan, 1982; Srinivasan, 1986; Rojas, 1989) are compounded pathologically by those of the cultural division of the economy (Horowitz, 1971; Clarke, 1984; Ward, 1989). …

A community accounting matrix (CAM) is an economic model that summarizes the transactions between the various industries and types of household in a neighborhood, as well as the neighborhood's links with its adjoining city and region. This article describes the construction and findings of a prototype CAM for the mainly African-American-populated East Side neighborhood of Buffalo and the more affluent, mainly white-populated city and suburbs. The CAM thus quantifies key structural relationships between race, space, and class in the Buffalo area. The CAM is used to calculate the implications of changes in this structure, such as continued shifts from manufacturing to services in the metropolitan area. It may also be used to evaluate neighborhood development projects and strategies that are designed to reverse the East Side's historic decline. The article begins with a summary of the demographic and economic history of Buffalo and the East Side and summarizes an analysis by Taylor of the need for a territorially focused community development strategy for the East Side. In the light of this analysis, several requirements for the CAM are discussed. The construction of CAM is then described, using a variety of data and a cultural accounting methodology developed elsewhere. Calculations are presented that demonstrate the “multiplier” and income distribution processes at work in the East Side's economy. Last, some possible applications of the CAM are discussed, and the empirical structure of the CAM and preliminary findings are related to other theories of poverty and the inner city.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), with support from the World Bank, has begun a project to promote national long-term perspective studies (NLTPS) for all countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. This is an important topic in view of the present concerns about the extent of famines and hunger in this part of Africa, and the widespread pessimism about the possibilities for sustained ‘development’ in Africa. This article reflects on earlier efforts by the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF), also under the auspices of UNDP, to prepare images of African futures, constructed by Africans, and considers some ways in which futures studies, including those of the WFSF, the World Bank and the Club of Rome, lend themselves to the manipulation of the development of other peoples.

COLE S. (1993) Cultural accounting in small economies, Reg. Studies 27, 121–136. This paper presents a method for describing the cultural division of labour in multi-cultural societies, and analysing its implications. The paper begins by explaining the idea of the cultural accounting approach as a derivative of social accounting. The approach is then applied to the small Caribbean island of Aruba. A precis of the island's history describes how the present-day cultural division of labour has arisen. A set of cultural accounts for the island is presented, and then used to show how the cultural–economic structure determines the relative strength of trickle-up and trickle-down processes between four types of household. This has implications for social policy and grass roots initiatives, and the consequences of all economic events on the island. Lastly, the potential of two socially-targeted economic initiatives are considered. COLE S. (1993) La comptabilite dans les petites economies, Reg. Studies 27, 121–136...