Search

Background Institutions or clinicians (units) are often compared according to a performance indicator such as in-hospital mortality. Several approaches have been proposed for the detection of outlying units, whose performance deviates from the overall performance. Methods We provide an overview of three approaches commonly used to monitor institutional performances for outlier detection. These are the common-mean model, the ‘Normal-Poisson’ random effects model and the ‘Logistic’ random effects model. For the latter we also propose a visualisation technique. The common-mean model assumes that the underlying true performance of all units is equal and that any observed variation between units is due to chance. Even after applying case-mix adjustment, this assumption is often violated due to overdispersion and a post-hoc correction may need to be applied. The random effects models relax this assumption and explicitly allow the true performance to differ between units, thus offering a more flexible approach. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each approach and illustrate their application using audit data from England and Wales on Adult Cardiac Surgery (ACS) and Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI). Results In general, the overdispersion-corrected common-mean model and the random effects approaches produced similar p-values for the detection of outliers. For the ACS dataset (41 hospitals) three outliers were identified in total but only one was identified by all methods above. For the PCI dataset (88 hospitals), seven outliers were identified in total but only two were identified by all methods. The common-mean model uncorrected for overdispersion produced several more outliers. The reason for observing similar p-values for all three approaches could be attributed to the fact that the between-hospital variance was relatively small in both datasets, resulting only in a mild violation of the common-mean assumption; in this situation, the overdispersion correction worked well. Conclusion If the common-mean assumption is likely to hold, all three methods are appropriate to use for outlier detection and their results should be similar. Random effect methods may be the preferred approach when the common-mean assumption is likely to be violated.

Background Little is known about the effectiveness of befriending for people with intellectual disability and whether or not befriending improves depressive symptoms and social outcomes. Objective This pilot trial aimed to assess the feasibility and acceptability of conducting a future full-scale randomised controlled trial of one-to-one befriending for people with intellectual disability who had depressive symptoms. Design This was a parallel-group, two-armed randomised controlled trial incorporating an exploratory economic analysis and a mixed-methods process evaluation. Outcome assessments were conducted at baseline and at 6 months post randomisation by a research assistant who was blind to allocation. We aimed to approach 50 participants, with a view to recruiting 40. Setting Participants with intellectual disability were recruited from one NHS trust and from referrals to two community befriending services. The intervention was delivered by community befriending services. Participants Adults with mild or moderate intellectual disability with a score on the Glasgow Depression Scale for people with a Learning Disability of ≥ 5 were included. Those attending a day service/college for ≥ 3 days a week were excluded. Volunteers were aged ≥ 18 years and had no history of prior convictions. Intervention Participants in the intervention group were matched with a volunteer befriender and were expected to meet once per week for 1 hour, over 6 months. Volunteers recorded activities in a logbook. Volunteers received training and regular supervision. Both groups received usual care and a resource booklet of local activities. Main outcome measures The feasibility outcomes and progression criteria were recruitment of at least 70% of participants approached; matching of at least 70% of participants in the intervention group to a volunteer; a dropout rate of Results We recruited only 16 participants with intellectual disability (40% of target) and 10 volunteers. Six of the eight (75%) participants in the intervention group were matched with a befriender and there was good adherence (mean number of meetings attended 11.8; range 1–21 meetings). Going to a cafe/restaurant and having a conversation were the most frequent activities. All participants were retained at follow-up, but two volunteers dropped out. Trial procedures and the intervention might be acceptable, but modifications were suggested. Data on costs and resource use were obtained, but there were discrepancies in the health-related quality-of-life data. Limitations Delays to the study prevented the use of alternative recruitment strategies and the planned 12-month follow-up could not be completed. Conclusions Recruitment was not feasible, but other feasibility outcomes were more positive. Future work Evaluating befriending for people with intellectual disability could be explored through alternative study designs, such as observational studies. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN63779614. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 9, No. 10. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

BACKGROUND People with intellectual disability (ID) are more likely to experience chronic depression compared with the general population, which may be compounded by loneliness and lower levels of social support. Befriending aims to provide social support and promote engagement in community activities. No randomised controlled trials have examined whether befriending improves symptoms of depression and social outcomes in people with ID. The aim of this pilot trial was to assess the feasibility and acceptability of a future larger trial of one-to-one befriending by volunteers in people with ID and depressive symptoms. METHODS Participants were adults with mild or moderate ID with a score of 5 or more on the Glasgow Depression Scale for People with Learning Disabilities (GDS-LD). They were randomised to the intervention arm (matched to a volunteer befriender for 6 months) or the control arm (usual care). Volunteers received training and supervision provided by two community befriending schemes. The main outcomes were feasibility of recruitment (minimum target n = 35), retention rate of participants, adherence (minimum 10 meetings), acceptability of the intervention, changes in depressive symptoms (assessed at baseline and 6 months) and feasibility of collecting data for a health economic analysis. RESULTS Recruitment was challenging, and only 16 participants with ID and 10 volunteers were recruited. Six participants were matched with a volunteer and no participants dropped out (except for two volunteers). Four participants completed 10 meetings (mean 11.8). Befriending was thought to be acceptable, but modifications were suggested. An exploratory analysis suggested that GDS-LD score was lower in the intervention group compared with the control group after adjusting for baseline scores, but not significant (adjusted mean difference: -4.0; 95% confidence interval: -11.2 to 3.2). CONCLUSIONS A large trial would not be feasible based on the recruitment strategies employed in this study. A further feasibility study addressing these challenges or the use of other study designs should be considered.

Multiple primary outcomes are sometimes collected and analysed in randomised controlled trials (RCTs), and are used in favour of a single outcome. By collecting multiple primary outcomes, it is possible to fully evaluate the effect that an intervention has for a given disease process. A simple approach to analysing multiple outcomes is to consider each outcome separately, however, this approach does not account for any pairwise correlations between the outcomes. Any cases with missing values must be ignored, unless an additional imputation step is performed. Alternatively, multivariate methods that explicitly model the pairwise correlations between the outcomes may be more efficient when some of the outcomes have missing values. In this paper, we present an overview of relevant methods that can be used to analyse multiple outcome measures in RCTs, including methods based on multivariate multilevel (MM) models. We perform simulation studies to evaluate the bias in the estimates of the intervention effects and the power of detecting true intervention effects observed when using selected methods. Different simulation scenarios were constructed by varying the number of outcomes, the type of outcomes, the degree of correlations between the outcomes and the proportions and mechanisms of missing data. We compare multivariate methods to univariate methods with and without multiple imputation. When there are strong correlations between the outcome measures (ρ > .4), our simulation studies suggest that there are small power gains when using the MM model when compared to analysing the outcome measures separately. In contrast, when there are weak correlations (ρ < .4), the power is reduced when using univariate methods with multiple imputation when compared to analysing the outcome measures separately.

Objective:Nearly half of care home residents with advanced dementia have clinically significant agitation. Little is known about costs associated with these symptoms toward the end of life. We calculated monetary costs associated with agitation from UK National Health Service, personal social services, and societal perspectives.Design:Prospective cohort study.Setting:Thirteen nursing homes in London and the southeast of England.Participants:Seventy-nine people with advanced dementia (Functional Assessment Staging Tool grade 6e and above) residing in nursing homes, and thirty-five of their informal carers.Measurements:Data collected at study entry and monthly for up to 9 months, extrapolated for expression per annum. Agitation was assessed using the Cohen-Mansfield Agitation Inventory (CMAI). Health and social care costs of residing in care homes, and costs of contacts with health and social care services were calculated from national unit costs; for a societal perspective, costs of providing informal care were estimated using the resource utilization in dementia (RUD)-Lite scale.Results:After adjustment, health and social care costs, and costs of providing informal care varied significantly by level of agitation as death approached, from £23,000 over a 1-year period with no agitation symptoms (CMAI agitation score 0–10) to £45,000 at the most severe level (CMAI agitation score >100). On average, agitation accounted for 30% of health and social care costs. Informal care costs were substantial, constituting 29% of total costs.Conclusions:With the increasing prevalence of dementia, costs of care will impact on healthcare and social services systems, as well as informal carers. Agitation is a key driver of these costs in people with advanced dementia presenting complex challenges for symptom management, service planners, and providers.

Objectives\ud Globally, the number of people with dementia who have palliative care needs will increase fourfold over the next 40 years. The Empowering Better End‐of‐Life Dementia Care (EMBED‐Care) Programme aims to deliver a step change in care through a large sequential study, spanning multiple work streams.\ud \ud Methods\ud We will use mixed methods across settings where people with dementia live and die: their own homes, care homes, and hospitals. Beginning with policy syntheses and reviews of interventions, we will develop a conceptual framework and underpinning theory of change. We will use linked data sets to explore current service use, care transitions, and inequalities and predict future need for end‐of‐life dementia care. Longitudinal cohort studies of people with dementia (including young onset and prion dementias) and their carers will describe care transitions, quality of life, symptoms, formal and informal care provision, and costs. Data will be synthesised, underpinned by the Knowledge‐to‐Action Implementation Framework, to design a novel complex intervention to support assessment, decision making, and communication between patients, carers, and inter‐professional teams. This will be feasibility and pilot tested in UK settings. Patient and public involvement and engagement, innovative work with artists, policymakers, and third sector organisations are embedded to drive impact. We will build research capacity and develop an international network for excellence in dementia palliative care.\ud \ud Conclusions\ud EMBED‐Care will help us understand current and future need, develop novel cost‐effective care innovations, build research capacity, and promote international collaborations in research and practice to ensure people live and die well with dementia.

Background: Maximal left ventricular wall thickness (MLVWT) is a risk factor for sudden cardiac death (SCD) in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). In adults, the severity of left ventricular hypertrophy has a nonlinear relationship with SCD, but it is not known whether the same complex relationship is seen in childhood. The aim of this study was to describe the relationship between left ventricular hypertrophy and SCD risk in a large international pediatric HCM cohort. Methods: The study cohort comprised 1075 children (mean age, 10.2 years [±4.4]) diagnosed with HCM (1–16 years) from the International Paediatric Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy Consortium. Anonymized, noninvasive clinical data were collected from baseline evaluation and follow-up, and 5-year estimated SCD risk was calculated (HCM Risk-Kids). Results: MLVWT Z score was Z scores were associated with heart failure symptoms, unexplained syncope, left ventricular outflow tract obstruction, left atrial dilatation, and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia. One hundred twenty-two patients (71.3%) with MLVWT Z score ≥20 had coexisting risk factors for SCD. Over a median follow-up of 4.9 years (interquartile range, 2.3–9.3), 115 (10.7%) had an SCD event. Freedom from SCD event at 5 years for those with MLVWT Z scores Z score, peaking at Z score +23. The presence of coexisting risk factors had a summative effect on risk. Conclusions: In children with HCM, an inverted U-shaped relationship exists between left ventricular hypertrophy and estimated SCD risk. The presence of additional risk factors has a summative effect on risk. While MLVWT is important for risk stratification, it should not be used either as a binary variable or in isolation to guide implantable cardioverter defibrillator implantation decisions in children with HCM.

Introduction Sudden cardiac death is the most common cause of mortality in childhood onset hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Identifying individuals at highest risk is therefore an essential part of clinical care but remains challenging. The 12 lead electrocardiogram (ECG) has been proposed as a useful tool for risk stratification and an ECG risk score has been proposed. However, this has not been independently validated and the ECG phenotype of childhood HCM has not been previously described. The aim of this study was to describe the ECG phenotype of childhood HCM in a large, international, multi-centre cohort and investigate its role in risk prediction for arrhythmic events. Methods Participants with an available baseline resting 12-lead ECG were identified from a large, international, multi-centre, retrospective cohort of patients aged less than 16 years fulfilling the diagnostic criteria for HCM (n=1029). Resting baseline ECG was evaluated and ECG variables were extracted. In addition, the ECG risk score based on 8 parameters (deviation in QRS axis, pathological T-wave inversion in limb or precordial leads, ST-segment depression, dominant S-wave in V4, limb-lead amplitude sum, 12-lead amplitude duration product and QTc) was calculated as previously described. The primary study endpoint was a composite outcome of major cardiac events (MACE) defined as SCD, resuscitated cardiac arrest, appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy, or sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT) with haemodynamic compromise. The discriminatory performance of using an ECG risk score >5 to identify patients at increased risk of MACE at 5 years was determined using Harrell’s C-index. Results Of 356 patients with childhood HCM (68.9% male, mean age at presentation 10.1 ± 4.5 years), 347 (97.5%) had baseline ECG abnormalities such as: repolarization abnormalities (n=277, 77.8%), left ventricular hypertrophy (n=240. 67.6%), abnormal QRS axis (n=126, 35.4%) or QT prolongation (n=131, 36.8%). Over a median follow up of 3.9 years (IQR 2.0-7.7), 25 (7%) had an arrhythmic event, with an overall annual event rate of 1.38 (95% CI 0.93-2.04). No ECG variables were associated with 5-year MACE on univariable or multivariable Cox regression analysis. Of the 164 participants with an ECG score >5, 153 (93.3%) did not have a MACE within 5 years. Harrell’s C-index (the probability of correctly distinguishing between high and low risk patients using an ECG risk score threshold of >5) was 0.60 (95% CI 0.484-0.715) at 5 years. The corresponding positive and negative predictive values were 6.7% (95% CI 4.7 – 9.4%) and 96.9% (95% CI 94.2 – 98.4%). Conclusions In a large, international, multi-centre cohort of children with HCM, ECG abnormalities are common. No ECG characteristic, either in isolation or combined in the ECG risk score, was associated with 5-year MACE risk. This suggests that the role of the baseline ECG phenotype in improving risk stratification in childhood HCM is limited. Conflict of Interest None

OBJECTIVE: To understand the feasibility of recruiting people with advanced cancer into a randomised controlled trial of Acceptance and Commitment therapy (ACT) vs a standardised Talking Control (TC) and delivering ACT to this population; to explore the acceptability of outcome measures and generate normative data. METHODS: This was a feasibility two-arm randomised controlled trial. Participants were attendees with advanced cancer at one of three hospice-based day- therapy units in London, UK, who demonstrated low scores on the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapies - General (FACT-G). The primary end point was three months. RESULTS: The recruitment target was 54 participants; 42 people were recruited and randomised to up to eight individual sessions of ACT (n=20) or TC (n=22). 18/42 (43%) of participants completed the primary outcome at three months, and at least one follow-up was available in 30/42 (71%) participants. An exploratory analysis revealed a non-significant adjusted mean difference after three months in the main outcome FACT-G of -3.41 (CI= -18.61, 11.79) with TC having better functioning. Over six months the adjusted mean difference between trial arms was 2.25 (CI= -6.03, 10.52) in favour of ACT. CONCLUSIONS: It is feasible to recruit people with advanced cancer in a trial of ACT versus TC. Future research should test the effectiveness of ACT in a fully powered trial.

BACKGROUND The aim was to pilot an adapted manualised weight management programme for persons with mild-moderate intellectual disabilities affected by overweight or obesity ('Shape Up-LD'). METHOD Adults with intellectual disabilities were enrolled in a 6-month trial (3-month active intervention and 3-month follow-up) and were individually randomised to Shape Up-LD or a usual care control. Feasibility outcomes included recruitment, retention, initial effectiveness and cost. RESULTS Fifty people were enrolled. Follow-up rates were 78% at 3 months and 74% at 6 months. At 3 and 6 months, controlling for baseline weight, no difference was observed between groups (3 months: β: -0.34, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.38, 1.69, 6 months: β: -0.55, 95%CI -4.34, 3.24). CONCLUSION It may be possible to carry out a trial of Shape Up-LD, although barriers to recruitment, carer engagement and questionnaire completion need to be addressed, alongside refinements to the intervention.

Supplemental material, sj-pdf-1-smm-10.1177_09622802211007522 for Estimation of required sample size for external validation of risk models for binary outcomes by Menelaos Pavlou, Chen Qu, Rumana Z Omar, Shaun R Seaman, Ewout W Steyerberg, Ian R White and Gareth Ambler in Statistical Methods in Medical Research

Supplemental material, sj-pdf-2-smm-10.1177_09622802211007522 for Estimation of required sample size for external validation of risk models for binary outcomes by Menelaos Pavlou, Chen Qu, Rumana Z Omar, Shaun R Seaman, Ewout W Steyerberg, Ian R White and Gareth Ambler in Statistical Methods in Medical Research

Supplemental material, sj-pdf-1-smm-10.1177_09622802211007522 for Estimation of required sample size for external validation of risk models for binary outcomes by Menelaos Pavlou, Chen Qu, Rumana Z Omar, Shaun R Seaman, Ewout W Steyerberg, Ian R White and Gareth Ambler in Statistical Methods in Medical Research

Supplemental material, sj-pdf-2-smm-10.1177_09622802211007522 for Estimation of required sample size for external validation of risk models for binary outcomes by Menelaos Pavlou, Chen Qu, Rumana Z Omar, Shaun R Seaman, Ewout W Steyerberg, Ian R White and Gareth Ambler in Statistical Methods in Medical Research

Aims The 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) is routinely performed in children with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). An ECG risk score has been suggested as a useful tool for risk stratification, but this has not been independently validated. This aim of this study was to describe the ECG phenotype of childhood HCM in a large, international, multi-centre cohort and investigate its role in risk prediction for arrhythmic events. Methods and results Data from 356 childhood HCM patients with a mean age of 10.1 years (±4.5) were collected from a retrospective, multi-centre international cohort. Three hundred and forty-seven (97.5%) patients had ECG abnormalities at baseline, most commonly repolarization abnormalities (n = 277, 77.8%); left ventricular hypertrophy (n = 240, 67.7%); abnormal QRS axis (n = 126, 35.4%); or QT prolongation (n = 131, 36.8%). Over a median follow-up of 3.9 years (interquartile range 2.0–7.7), 25 (7%) had an arrhythmic event, with an overall annual event rate of 1.38 (95% CI 0.93–2.04). No ECG variables were associated with 5-year arrhythmic event on univariable or multivariable analysis. The ECG risk score threshold of >5 had modest discriminatory ability [C-index 0.60 (95% CI 0.484–0.715)], with corresponding negative and positive predictive values of 96.7% and 6.7% Conclusion In a large, international, multi-centre cohort of childhood HCM, ECG abnormalities were common and varied. No ECG characteristic, either in isolation or combined in the previously described ECG risk score, was associated with 5-year sudden cardiac death risk. This suggests that the role of baseline ECG phenotype in improving risk stratification in childhood HCM is limited.

IntroductionPeople with intellectual disability (ID) are more likely to experience loneliness and have smaller social networks, which increases vulnerability to depression. Befriending may reduce depressive symptoms in other populations, but randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have not been carried out in this population. This pilot study aims to assess the acceptability and feasibility of carrying out a full RCT of one-to-one befriending by volunteers for people with ID, compared with an active control group.Methods and analysisThe trial aims to recruit 40 participants with ID. Participants in the intervention arm will receive weekly visits from a volunteer over 6 months. Community befriending schemes will recruit, train, supervise volunteers and match them to individuals with ID. Both groups will receive a booklet about local activities and have access to usual care. Health and social outcomes will be measured at the end of the intervention and 6 months’ follow-up. The following outcomes will be assessed: (1) recruitment and retention of individuals with ID and volunteers in the trial, (2) adverse events related to the intervention, (3) the acceptability of the intervention, (4) whether the intervention is delivered as intended, (5) changes in health and social outcomes and (6) the feasibility of carrying out a cost-effectiveness analysis in a full trial. Qualitative data from participants, volunteers, staff and carers will identify barriers and facilitators of a future full trial.Ethics and disseminationThe study has been approved by the London City and East Research Ethics Committee (reference 18/LO/2188). The findings will be presented at conferences and published in a peer-reviewed journal and in the National Institute of Health Research journals library. A public engagement seminar will be held at the end of the study aimed at key stakeholders.Trial registration numberNCT63779614.

Background Preliminary studies have indicated that training staff in Positive Behaviour Support (PBS) may help to reduce challenging behaviour among people with intellectual disability (ID). Objective To evaluate whether or not such training is clinically effective in reducing challenging behaviour in routine care. The study also included longer-term follow-up (approximately 36 months). Design A multicentre, single-blind, two-arm, parallel-cluster randomised controlled trial. The unit of randomisation was the community ID service using an independent web-based randomisation system and random permuted blocks on a 1 : 1 allocation stratified by a staff-to-patient ratio for each cluster. Setting Community ID services in England. Participants Adults (aged > 18 years) across the range of ID with challenging behaviour [≥ 15 Aberrant Behaviour Checklist – Community total score (ABC-CT)]. Interventions Manual-assisted face-to-face PBS training to therapists and treatment as usual (TAU) compared with TAU only in the control arm. Main outcome measures Carer-reported changes in challenging behaviour as measured by the ABC-CT over 12 months. Secondary outcomes included psychopathology, community participation, family and paid carer burden, family carer psychopathology, costs of care and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Data on main outcome, service use and health-related quality of life were collected for the 36-month follow-up. Results A total of 246 participants were recruited from 23 teams, of whom 109 were in the intervention arm (11 teams) and 137 were in the control arm (12 teams). The difference in ABC-CT between the intervention and control arms [mean difference –2.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) –8.79 to 4.51; p = 0.528] was not statistically significant. No treatment effects were found for any of the secondary outcomes. The mean cost per participant in the intervention arm was £1201. Over 12 months, there was a difference in QALYs of 0.076 in favour of the intervention (95% CI 0.011 to 0.140 QALYs) and a 60% chance that the intervention is cost-effective compared with TAU from a health and social care cost perspective at the threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained. Twenty-nine participants experienced 45 serious adverse events (intervention arm, n = 19; control arm, n = 26). PBS plans were available for 33 participants. An independent assessment of the quality of these plans found that all were less than optimal. Forty-six qualitative interviews were conducted with service users, family carers, paid carers and service managers as part of the process evaluation. Service users reported that they had learned to manage difficult situations and had gained new skills, and carers reported a positive relationship with therapists. At 36 months’ follow-up (n = 184), the mean ABC-CT difference between arms was not significant (–3.70, 95% CI –9.25 to 1.85; p = 0.191). The initial cost-effectiveness of the intervention dissipated over time. Limitations The main limitations were low treatment fidelity and reach of the intervention. Conclusions Findings from the main study and the naturalistic follow-up suggest that staff training in PBS as delivered in this study is insufficient to achieve significant clinical gains beyond TAU in community ID services. Although there is an indication that training in PBS is potentially cost-effective, this is not maintained in the longer term. There is increased scope to develop new approaches to challenging behaviour as well as optimising the delivery of PBS in routine clinical practice. Trial registration This study is registered as NCT01680276. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 22, No. 15. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Background: Increasing number of people are dying with advanced dementia. Comfort and quality of life are key goals of care. Aims: To describe (1) physical and psychological symptoms, (2) health and social care service utilisation and (3) care at end of life in people with advanced dementia. Design: 9-month prospective cohort study. Setting and participants: Greater London, England, people with advanced dementia (Functional Assessment Staging Scale 6e and above) from 14 nursing homes or their own homes. Main outcome measures: At study entry and monthly: prescriptions, Charlson Comorbidity Index, pressure sore risk/severity (Waterlow Scale/Stirling Scale, respectively), acute medical events, pain (Pain Assessment in Advanced Dementia), neuropsychiatric symptoms (Neuropsychiatric Inventory), quality of life (Quality of Life in Late-Stage Dementia Scale), resource use (Resource Utilization in Dementia Questionnaire and Client Services Receipt Inventory), presence/type of advance care plans, interventions, mortality, place of death and comfort (Symptom Management at End of Life in Dementia Scale). Results: Of 159 potential participants, 85 were recruited (62% alive at end of follow-up). Pain (11% at rest, 61% on movement) and significant agitation (54%) were common and persistent. Aspiration, dyspnoea, septicaemia and pneumonia were more frequent in those who died. In total, 76% had ‘do not resuscitate’ statements, less than 40% advance care plans. Most received primary care visits, there was little input from geriatrics or mental health but contact with emergency paramedics was common. Conclusion: People with advanced dementia lived with distressing symptoms. Service provision was not tailored to their needs. Longitudinal multidisciplinary input could optimise symptom control and quality of life.

BackgroundThe REAL (Rehabilitation Effectiveness for Activities for Life) research programme, funded by the National Institute for Heath Research (NIHR) from 2009 to 2015, investigated NHS mental health rehabiliation services across England. The users of these services are people with longer-term, complex mental health problems, such as schizophrenia, who have additional problems that complicate recovery. Although only around 10% of people with severe mental illness require inpatient rehabilitation, because of the severity and complexity of their problems they cost 25–50% of the total mental health budget. Despite this, there has been little research to help clinicians and commissioners to plan and deliver effective treatments and services. This research aimed to address this gap.MethodsThe programme had four phases. (1) A national survey, using quantitative and qualitative methods, was used to provide a detailed understanding of the scope and quality of NHS mental health rehabilitation services in England and the characteristics of those who use them. (2) We developed a training intervention for staff of NHS inpatient mental health rehabilitation units to facilitate service users’ activities. (3) The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the staff training programme was evaluated through a cluster randomised controlled trial involving 40 units that scored below average on our quality assessment tool in the national survey. A qualitative process evaluation and a realistic evaluation were carried out to inform our findings further. (4) A naturalistic cohort study was carried out involving 349 service users of 50 units that scored above average on our quality assessment tool in the national survey, who were followed up over 12 months. Factors associated with better clinical outcomes were investigated through exploratory analyses.ResultsMost NHS trusts provided inpatient mental health rehabilitation services. The quality of care provided was higher than that in similar facilities across Europe and was positively associated with service users’ autonomy. Our cluster trial did not find our staff training intervention to be clinically effective [coefficient 1.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) –1.35 to 4.24]; staff appeared to revert to previous practices once the training team left the unit. Our realistic review suggested that greater supervision and senior staff support could help to address this. Over half of the service users in our cohort study were successfully discharged from hospital over 12 months. Factors associated with this were service users’ activity levels [odds ratio (OR) 1.03, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.05] and social skills (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.24), and the ‘recovery’ orientation of the unit (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.08), which includes collaborative care planning with service users and holding hope for their progress. Quality of care was not associated with costs of care. A relatively small investment (£67 per service user per month) was required to achieve the improvement in everyday functioning that we found in our cohort study.ConclusionsPeople who require inpatient mental health rehabilitation are a ‘low-volume, high-needs’ group. Despite this, these services are able to successfully discharge most to the community within 18 months. Our results suggest that this may be facilitated by recovery-orientated practice that promotes service users’ activities and social skills. Further research is needed to identify effective interventions that enhance such practice to deliver these outcomes. Our research provides evidence that NHS inpatient mental health rehabilitation services deliver high-quality care that successfully supports service users with complex needs in their recovery.Main limitationOur programme included only NHS, non-secure, inpatient mental health rehabilitation services.Trial registrationCurrent Controlled Trials ISRCTN25898179.FundingThe NIHR Programme Grants for Applied Research programme.

Background Multiple primary outcomes may be specified in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). When analysing multiple outcomes it’s important to control the family wise error rate (FWER). A popular approach to do this is to adjust the p-values corresponding to each statistical test used to investigate the intervention effects by using the Bonferroni correction. It’s also important to consider the power of the trial to detect true intervention effects. In the context of multiple outcomes, depending on the clinical objective, the power can be defined as: ‘disjunctive power’, the probability of detecting at least one true intervention effect across all the outcomes or ‘marginal power’ the probability of finding a true intervention effect on a nominated outcome. We provide practical recommendations on which method may be used to adjust for multiple comparisons in the sample size calculation and the analysis of RCTs with multiple primary outcomes. We also discuss the implications on the sample size for obtaining 90% disjunctive power and 90% marginal power. Methods We use simulation studies to investigate the disjunctive power, marginal power and FWER obtained after applying Bonferroni, Holm, Hochberg, Dubey/Armitage-Parmar and Stepdown-minP adjustment methods. Different simulation scenarios were constructed by varying the number of outcomes, degree of correlation between the outcomes, intervention effect sizes and proportion of missing data. Results The Bonferroni and Holm methods provide the same disjunctive power. The Hochberg and Hommel methods provide power gains for the analysis, albeit small, in comparison to the Bonferroni method. The Stepdown-minP procedure performs well for complete data. However, it removes participants with missing values prior to the analysis resulting in a loss of power when there are missing data. The sample size requirement to achieve the desired disjunctive power may be smaller than that required to achieve the desired marginal power. The choice between whether to specify a disjunctive or marginal power should depend on the clincial objective. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12874-019-0754-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Sample size calculation methodology. Varying the effect size across outcomes. Skewed data. (DOCX 1675 kb)

5008 Background: Multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) of the prostate followed by targeted biopsy is recommended in men at risk of prostate cancer. Dissemination of this pathway may be limited by cost, variable scan and reporting quality, and contraindicated in the presence of metallic implants and claustrophobia. Multi-parametric ultrasound (mpUSS) is a point of care test with low cost that combines b-mode, colour Doppler, elastography and contrast enhancement. CADMUS compared the diagnostic performance of mpUSS to mpMRI. Methods: CADMUS recruited 370 patients from seven sites to a prospective, multicentre, paired-cohort trial (ISRCTN 38541912). Ethics committee approval was obtained. Patients underwent both mpUSS and mpMRI independently, each with a positive test defined as a Likert score of >3. Those with either a positive mpUSS or mpMRI, or both, were advised to undergo targeted biopsies. Reporting of each scan was carried out blind to the other and prior to biopsy; patients advised for biopsy were blinded to which test was positive. The order of mpUSS and mpMRI targeting was randomised. Primary outcomes were proportion of positive tests and detection of clinically significant cancer (csPCa) defined as Gleason >4+3 of any length and/or maximum cancer core length of >6mm of any grade [PROMIS definition1]. Results: 306 completed both mpUSS and mpMRI. Agreement in lesion detection between mpUSS and mpMRI was 73.2% (kappa 0.06, p = 0.14). 257 with positive results on mpUSS, mpMRI or both had targeted biopsies. Agreement on detection of csPCa was 91.1% (expected 59.8%, kappa 0.78, p < 0.01). Overall, mpUSS detected 4.3% fewer csPCa than mpMRI (95% CI = [-8.3%, -1.5%]; p = 0.042 [Bonferroni correction]). mpUSS detected 7.2% (6/83) csPCa missed by mpMRI; mpMRI detected 20.5% (17/83) csPCa that mpUSS missed. At a less stringent definition of significant cancer, Gleason grade >3+4 of any length (definition 3), agreement was 89.1% (expected 55.6%, kappa 0.75, p < 0.01) mpUSS detected 5.4% fewer definition 3 cancers than mpMRI overall. mpUSS detected 7% (7/99) definition 3 cancers that mpMRI missed; mpMRI detected 21% (21/99) definition 3 cancers that mpUSS missed. Conclusions: The CADMUS trial shows mpUSS has a diagnostic performance approaching that of mpMRI and significant cancer detection is improved by the use of both scans over mpMRI alone. Clinical trial information: 38541912. [Table: see text]

ObjectivesThe Prognosis in Palliative care Study II (PiPS2) was a large multicentre observational study validating prognostic tools in patients with advanced cancer. Many palliative care studies fail to reach their recruitment target. To inform future studies, PiPS2 rigorously monitored and identified any potential recruitment barriers.MethodsKey recruitment stages (ie, whether patients were eligible for the study, approached by the researchers and whether consent was obtained for enrolment) were monitored via comprehensive screening logs at participating sites (inpatient hospices, hospitals and community palliative care teams). The reasons for patients’ ineligibility, inaccessibility or decision not to consent were documented.Results17 014 patients were screened across 27 participating sites over a 20-month recruitment period. Of those, 4642 (27%) were ineligible for participation in the study primarily due to non-cancer diagnoses. Of 12 372 eligible patients, 9073 (73%) were not approached, the most common reason being a clinical decision not to do so. Other reasons included patients’ death or discharge before they were approached by the researchers. Of the 3299 approached patients, 1458 (44%) declined participation mainly because of feeling too unwell, experiencing severe distress or having other competing priorities. 11% (n=1841/17 014) of patients screened were enrolled in the study, representing 15% (n=1841/12 372) of eligible patients. Different recruitment patterns were observed across inpatient hospice, hospital and community palliative care teams.ConclusionsThe main barrier to recruitment was ‘accessing’ potentially eligible patients. Monitoring key recruitment stages may help to identify barriers and facilitators to enrolment and allow results to be put into better context.Trial registration numberISRCTN13688211.

Aims Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the most common cause of death in children with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) recommends consideration of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) if two or more clinical risk factors (RFs) are present, but this approach to risk stratification has not been formally validated. Methods and results Four hundred and eleven paediatric HCM patients were assessed for four clinical RFs in accordance with current ESC recommendations: severe left ventricular hypertrophy, unexplained syncope, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, and family history of SCD. The primary endpoint was a composite outcome of SCD or an equivalent event (aborted cardiac arrest, appropriate ICD therapy, or sustained ventricular tachycardia), defined as a major arrhythmic cardiac event (MACE). Over a follow-up period of 2890 patient years (median 5.5 years), MACE occurred in 21 patients (7.5%) with 0 RFs, 19 (16.8%) with 1 RFs, and 3 (18.8%) with 2 or more RFs. Corresponding incidence rates were 1.13 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.7–1.73], 2.07 (95% CI 1.25–3.23), and 2.52 (95% CI 0.53–7.35) per 100 patient years at risk. Patients with two or more RFs did not have a higher incidence of MACE (log-rank test P = 0.34), with a positive and negative predictive value of 19% and 90%, respectively. The C-statistic was 0.62 (95% CI 0.52–0.72) at 5 years. Conclusions The incidence of MACE is higher for patients with increasing numbers of clinical RFs. However, the current ESC guidelines have a low ability to discriminate between high- and low-risk individuals.

BackgroundStaff training in positive behaviour support (PBS) is a widespread treatment approach for challenging behaviour in adults with intellectual disability.AimsTo evaluate whether such training is clinically effective in reducing challenging behaviour during routine care (trial registration: NCT01680276).MethodWe carried out a multicentre, cluster randomised controlled trial involving 23 community intellectual disability services in England, randomly allocated to manual-assisted staff training in PBS (n = 11) or treatment as usual (TAU, n = 12). Data were collected from 246 adult participants.ResultsNo treatment effects were found for the primary outcome (challenging behaviour over 12 months, adjusted mean difference = −2.14, 95% CI: −8.79, 4.51) or secondary outcomes.ConclusionsStaff training in PBS, as applied in this study, did not reduce challenging behaviour. Further research should tackle implementation issues and endeavour to identify other interventions that can reduce challenging behaviour.Declaration of interestNone.

Risk prediction models are used to predict a clinical outcome for patients using a set of predictors. We focus on predicting low‐dimensional binary outcomes typically arising in epidemiology, health services and public health research where logistic regression is commonly used. When the number of events is small compared with the number of regression coefficients, model overfitting can be a serious problem. An overfitted model tends to demonstrate poor predictive accuracy when applied to new data. We review frequentist and Bayesian shrinkage methods that may alleviate overfitting by shrinking the regression coefficients towards zero (some methods can also provide more parsimonious models by omitting some predictors). We evaluated their predictive performance in comparison with maximum likelihood estimation using real and simulated data. The simulation study showed that maximum likelihood estimation tends to produce overfitted models with poor predictive performance in scenarios with few events, and penalised methods can offer improvement. Ridge regression performed well, except in scenarios with many noise predictors. Lasso performed better than ridge in scenarios with many noise predictors and worse in the presence of correlated predictors. Elastic net, a hybrid of the two, performed well in all scenarios. Adaptive lasso and smoothly clipped absolute deviation performed best in scenarios with many noise predictors; in other scenarios, their performance was inferior to that of ridge and lasso. Bayesian approaches performed well when the hyperparameters for the priors were chosen carefully. Their use may aid variable selection, and they can be easily extended to clustered‐data settings and to incorporate external information. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by JohnWiley & Sons Ltd.

Summary Multiple-imputation (MI) methods for imputing missing data in observational health studies with repeated measurements were evaluated with particular focus on incomplete time varying explanatory variables. Standard and random-effects imputation by chained equations, multivariate normal imputation and Bayesian MI were compared regarding bias and efficiency of regression coefficient estimates by using simulation studies. Flexibility of the methods in handling different types of variables (binary, categorical, skewed and normally distributed) and correlations between the repeated measurements of the incomplete variables were also compared. Multivariate normal imputation produced the least bias in most situations, is theoretically well justified and allows flexible correlation for the repeated measurements. It can be recommended for imputing continuous variables. Bayesian MI is efficient and may be preferable in the presence of categorical and non-normally distributed continuous variables. Imputation by chained equations approaches were sensitive to the correlation between the repeated measurements. The moving time window approach may be used for normally distributed continuous variables with auto-regressive correlation.

Objective Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is the leading cause of blindness in patients with type 1 or type 2 diabetes. The gold standard for the detection of DR requires expensive equipment. This study was undertaken to develop a simple and practical scoring system to predict the probability of DR. Methods A total of 1782 patients who had first-degree relatives with type II diabetes were selected. Eye examinations were performed by an expert ophthalmologist. Biochemical and anthropometric predictors of DR were measured. Logistic regression was used to develop a statistical model that can be used to predict DR. Goodness of fit was examined using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results The risk model demonstrated good calibration and discrimination (ROC area=0.76) in the validation sample. Factors associated with DR in our model were duration of diabetes (odds ratio [OR]=2.14, confidence interval [CI] 95%=1.87 to 2.45); glycated hemoglobin (A1C) (OR=1.21, CI 95%=1.13 to 1.30); fasting plasma glucose (OR=1.83, CI 95%=1.28 to 2.62); systolic blood pressure (OR=1.01, CI 95%= 1.00 to 1.02); and proteinuria (OR=1.37, CI 95%=1.01 to 1.85). The only factor that had a protective effect against DR were body mass index and education level (OR=0.95, CI 95%=0.92 to 0.98). Conclusions The good performance of our risk model suggests that it may be a useful risk-prediction tool for DR. It consisted of the positive predictors like A1C, diabetes duration, sex (male), fasting plasma glucose, systolic blood pressure and proteinuria, as well as negative risk factors like body mass index and education level.

Summary Background Mental health inpatient rehabilitation services focus on people with complex psychosis who have, for example, treatment-refractory symptoms, cognitive impairment, and severe negative symptoms, which impair functioning and require lengthy admission. Engagement in activities could lead to improvement in negative symptoms and function, but few trials have been done. We aimed to investigate the effectiveness of a staff training intervention to increase patients' engagement in activities. Methods We did a single-blind, two-arm, cluster-randomised controlled trial in 40 mental health inpatient rehabilitation units across England. Units were randomly allocated to either a manual-based staff training programme delivered by a small intervention team (intervention group, n=20) or standard care (control group, n=20). The primary outcome was patients' engagement in activities 12 months after randomisation, measured with the time use diary. With this measure, both the degree of engagement in an activity and its complexity are recorded four times a day for a week, rated on a scale of 0–4 for every period (maximum score of 112). Analysis was by intention-to-treat. Random-effects models were used to compare outcomes between study groups. Cost-effectiveness was assessed by combining service costs with the primary outcome. This study is registered with Current Controlled Trials (ISRCTN25898179). Findings Patients' engagement in activities did not differ between study groups (coefficient 1·44, 95% CI −1·35 to 4·24). An extra £101 was needed to achieve a 1% increase in patients' engagement in activities with the study intervention. Interpretation Our training intervention did not increase patients' engagement in activities after 12 months of follow-up. This failure could be attributable to inadequate implementation of the intervention, a high turnover of patients in the intervention units, competing priorities on staff time, high levels of patients' morbidity, and ceiling effects because of the high quality of standard care delivered. Further studies are needed to identify interventions that can improve outcomes for people with severe and complex psychosis. Funding National Institute for Health Research.

Background: people with severe mental illnesses, including psychosis, have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. We aimed to evaluate the effects of a primary care intervention on decreasing total cholesterol concentrations and cardiovascular disease risk in people with severe mental illnesses.Methods: we did this cluster randomised trial in general practices across England, with general practices as the cluster unit. We randomly assigned general practices (1:1) with 40 or more patients with severe mental illnesses using a computer-generated random sequence with a block size of four. Researchers were masked to allocation, but patients and general practice staff were not. We included participants aged 30–75 years with severe mental illnesses (schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, or psychosis), who had raised cholesterol concentrations (5·0 mmol/L) or a total:HDL cholesterol ratio of 4·0 mmol/L or more and one or more modifiable cardiovascular disease risk factors. Eligible participants were recruited within each practice before randomisation. The Primrose intervention consisted of appointments (≤12) with a trained primary care professional involving manualised interventions for cardiovascular disease prevention (ie, adhering to statins, improving diet or physical activity levels, reducing alcohol, or quitting smoking). Treatment as usual involved feedback of screening results only. The primary outcome was total cholesterol at 12 months and the primary economic analysis outcome was health-care costs. We used intention-to-treat analysis. The trial is registered with Current Controlled Trials, number ISRCTN13762819.Findings: between Dec 10, 2013, and Sept 30, 2015, we recruited general practices and between May 9, 2014, and Feb 10, 2016, we recruited participants and randomly assigned 76 general practices with 327 participants to the Primrose intervention (n=38 with 155 patients) or treatment as usual (n=38 with 172 patients). Total cholesterol concentration data were available at 12 months for 137 (88%) participants in the Primrose intervention group and 152 (88%) participants in the treatment-as-usual group. The mean total cholesterol concentration did not differ at 12 months between the two groups (5·4 mmol/L [SD 1·1] for Primrose vs 5·5 mmol/L [1·1] for treatment as usual; mean difference estimate 0·03, 95% CI −0·22 to 0·29; p=0·788). This result was unchanged by pre-agreed supportive analyses. Mean cholesterol decreased over 12 months (−0·22 mmol/L [1·1] for Primrose vs −0·36 mmol/L [1·1] for treatment as usual). Total health-care costs (£1286 [SE 178] in the Primrose intervention group vs £2182 [328] in the treatment-as-usual group; mean difference −£895, 95% CI −1631 to −160; p=0·012) and psychiatric inpatient costs (£157 [135] vs £956 [313]; −£799, −1480 to −117; p=0·018) were lower in the Primrose intervention group than the treatment-as-usual group. Six serious adverse events of hospital admission and one death occurred in the Primrose group (n=7) and 23, including three deaths, occurred in the treatment-as-usual group (n=18).Interpretation: total cholesterol concentration at 12 months did not differ between the Primrose and treatment-as-usual groups, possibly because of the cluster design, good care in the treatment-as-usual group, short duration of the intervention, or suboptimal focus on statin prescribing. The association between the Primrose intervention and fewer psychiatric admissions, with potential cost-effectiveness, might be important.Funding: National Institute of Health Research Programme Grants for Applied Research.

Background Many people with dementia die in nursing homes, but quality of care may be suboptimal. We developed the theory-driven ‘Compassion Intervention’ to enhance end-of-life care in advanced dementia. Objectives To (1) understand how the Intervention operated in nursing homes in different health economies; (2) collect preliminary outcome data and costs of an interdisciplinary care leader (ICL) to facilitate the Intervention; (3) check the Intervention caused no harm. Design A naturalistic feasibility study of Intervention implementation for 6 months. Settings Two nursing homes in northern London, UK. Participants Thirty residents with advanced dementia were assessed of whom nine were recruited for data collection; four of these residents’ family members were interviewed. Twenty-eight nursing home and external healthcare professionals participated in interviews at 7 (n=19), 11 (n=19) and 15 months (n=10). Intervention An ICL led two core Intervention components: (1) integrated, interdisciplinary assessment and care; (2) education and support for paid and family carers. Data collected Process and outcome data were collected. Symptoms were recorded monthly for recruited residents. Semistructured interviews were conducted at 7, 11 and 15 months with nursing home staff and external healthcare professionals and at 7 months with family carers. ICL hours were costed using Department of Health and Health Education England tariffs. Results Contextual differences were identified between sites: nursing home 2 had lower involvement with external healthcare services. Core components were implemented at both sites but multidisciplinary meetings were only established in nursing home 1. The Intervention prompted improvements in advance care planning, pain management and person-centred care; we observed no harm. Six-month ICL costs were £18 255. Conclusions Implementation was feasible to differing degrees across sites, dependent on context. Our data inform future testing to identify the Intervention’s effectiveness in improving end-of-life care in advanced dementia. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov:NCT02840318: Results

Supplemental material, 726443_Supp_mat for Living and dying with advanced dementia: A prospective cohort study of symptoms, service use and care at the end of life by Elizabeth L Sampson, Bridget Candy, Sarah Davis, Anna Buylova Gola, Jane Harrington, Michael King, Nuriye Kupeli, Gerry Leavey, Kirsten Moore, Irwin Nazareth, Rumana Z Omar, Victoria Vickerstaff and Louise Jones in Palliative Medicine

Importance: Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the most common mode of death in childhood hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), but there is no validated algorithm to identify those at highest risk.Objective: To develop and validate an SCD risk prediction model that provides individualized risk estimates.Design, Setting, and Participants: A prognostic model was developed from a retrospective, multicenter, longitudinal cohort study of 1024 consecutively evaluated patients aged 16 years or younger with HCM. The study was conducted from January 1, 1970, to December 31, 2017.Exposures: The model was developed using preselected predictor variables (unexplained syncope, maximal left-ventricular wall thickness, left atrial diameter, left-ventricular outflow tract gradient, and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia) identified from the literature and internally validated using bootstrapping.Main Outcomes and Measures: A composite outcome of SCD or an equivalent event (aborted cardiac arrest, appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy, or sustained ventricular tachycardia associated with hemodynamic compromise).Results: Of the 1024 patients included in the study, 699 were boys (68.3%); mean (interquartile range [IQR]) age was 11 (7-14) years. Over a median follow-up of 5.3 years (IQR, 2.6-8.3; total patient years, 5984), 89 patients (8.7%) died suddenly or had an equivalent event (annual event rate, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.15-1.92). The pediatric model was developed using preselected variables to predict the risk of SCD. The model's ability to predict risk at 5 years was validated; the C statistic was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.66-0.72), and the calibration slope was 0.98 (95%, CI 0.59-1.38). For every 10 implantable cardioverter defibrillators implanted in patients with 6% or more of a 5-year SCD risk, 1 patient may potentially be saved from SCD at 5 years.Conclusions and Relevance: This new, validated risk stratification model for SCD in childhood HCM may provide individualized estimates of risk at 5 years using readily obtained clinical risk factors. External validation studies are required to demonstrate the accuracy of this model's predictions in diverse patient populations.

Importance Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy causes limiting symptoms in patients, mediated partly through inefficient myocardial energy use. There is conflicting evidence for therapy with inhibitors of myocardial fatty acid metabolism in patients with nonobstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Objective To determine the effect of oral therapy with trimetazidine, a direct inhibitor of fatty acid β-oxidation, on exercise capacity in patients with symptomatic nonobstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Design, Setting, and Participants This randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind clinical trial at The Heart Hospital, University College London Hospitals, London, United Kingdom was performed between May 31, 2012, and September 8, 2014. The trial included 51 drug-refractory symptomatic (New York Heart Association class ≥2) patients aged 24 to 74 years with a maximum left ventricular outflow tract gradient 50 mm Hg or lower and a peak oxygen consumption during exercise of 80% or less predicted value for age and sex. Statistical analysis was performed from March 1, 2016 through July 4, 2018. Interventions Participants were randomly assigned to trimetazidine, 20 mg, 3 times daily (n = 27) or placebo (n = 24) for 3 months. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary end point was peak oxygen consumption during upright bicycle ergometry. Secondary end points were 6-minute walk distance, quality of life (Minnesota Living with Heart Failure questionnaire), frequency of ventricular ectopic beats, diastolic function, serum N-terminal pro–brain natriuretic peptide level, and troponin T level. Results Of 49 participants who received trimetazidine (n = 26) or placebo (n = 23) and completed the study, 34 (70%) were male; the mean (SD) age was 50 (13) years. Trimetazidine therapy did not improve exercise capacity, with patients in the trimetazidine group walking 38.4 m (95% CI, 5.13 to 71.70 m) less than patients in the placebo group at 3 months after adjustment for their baseline walking distance measurements. After adjustment for baseline values, peak oxygen consumption was 1.35 mL/kg per minute lower (95% CI, −2.58 to −0.11 mL/kg per minute;P = .03) in the intervention group after 3 months. Conclusions and Relevance In symptomatic patients with nonobstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, trimetazidine therapy does not improve exercise capacity. Pharmacologic therapy for this disease remains limited. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier:NCT01696370

BackgroundCurrent health policy assumes better quality services lead to better outcomes.AimsTo investigate the relationship between quality of mental health rehabilitation services in England, local deprivation, service user characteristics and clinical outcomes.MethodStandardised tools were used to assess the quality of mental health rehabilitation units and service users' autonomy, quality of life, experiences of care and ratings of the therapeutic milieu. Multiple level modelling investigated relationships between service quality, service user characteristics and outcomes.ResultsA total of 52/60 (87%) National Health Service trusts participated, comprising 133 units and 739 service users. All aspects of service quality were positively associated with service users' autonomy, experiences of care and therapeutic milieu, but there was no association with quality of life.ConclusionsQuality of care is linked to better clinical outcomes in people with complex and longer-term mental health problems. Thus, investing in quality is likely to show real clinical gains.

Patients with isolated mediastinal lymphadenopathy (IML) are a common presentation to physicians, and mediastinoscopy is traditionally considered the "gold standard" investigation when a pathological diagnosis is required. Endobronchial ultrasound-guided transbronchial needle aspiration (EBUS-TBNA) is established as an alternative to mediastinoscopy in patients with lung cancer.To determine the efficacy and health care costs of EBUS-TBNA as an alternative initial investigation to mediastinoscopy in patients with isolated IML.Prospective multicenter single-arm clinical trial of 77 consecutive patients with IML from 5 centers between April 2009 and March 2011. All patients underwent EBUS-TBNA. If EBUS-TBNA did not provide a diagnosis, then participants underwent mediastinoscopy.EBUS-TBNA prevented 87% of mediastinoscopies (95% confidence interval [CI], 77-94%; P0.001) but failed to provide a diagnosis in 10 patients (13%), all of whom underwent mediastinoscopy. The sensitivity and negative predictive value of EBUS-TBNA in patients with IML were 92% (95% CI, 83-95%) and 40% (95% CI, 12-74%), respectively. One patient developed a lower respiratory tract infection after EBUS-TBNA, requiring inpatient admission. The cost of the EBUS-TBNA procedure per patient was £1,382 ($2,190). The mean cost of the EBUS-TBNA strategy was £1,892 ($2,998) per patient, whereas a strategy of mediastinoscopy alone was significantly more costly at £3,228 ($5,115) per patient (P0.001). The EBUS-TBNA strategy is less costly than mediastinoscopy if the cost per EBUS-TBNA procedure is less than £2,718 ($4,307) per patient.EBUS-TBNA is a safe, highly sensitive, and cost-saving initial investigation in patients with IML. Clinical trial registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00932854).

Prognostic models for survival outcomes are often developed by fitting standard survival regression models, such as the Cox proportional hazards model, to representative datasets. However, these models can be unreliable if the datasets contain few events, which may be the case if either the disease or the event of interest is rare. Specific problems include predictions that are too extreme, and poor discrimination between low-risk and high-risk patients. The objective of this paper is to evaluate three existing penalised methods that have been proposed to improve predictive accuracy. In particular, ridge, lasso and the garotte, which use penalised maximum likelihood to shrink coefficient estimates and in some cases omit predictors entirely, are assessed using simulated data derived from two clinical datasets. The predictions obtained using these methods are compared with those from Cox models fitted using standard maximum likelihood. The simulation results suggest that Cox models fitted using maximum likelihood can perform poorly when there are few events, and that significant improvements are possible by taking a penalised modelling approach. The ridge method generally performed the best, although lasso is recommended if variable selection is required.

The equitable provision of care is a core principle of the National Health Service. Previous research has suggested that older cancer patients may be less likely to use specialist palliative care, but such research has been limited by retrospective design and the failure to measure clinical need. The objective of this study was to examine the extent to which the use of specialist palliative care in lung cancer patients varies by age, after accounting for need. A cross-sectional survey of patients and their carers attending four hospital lung cancer clinics in London was conducted between June 2006 and April 2007. Two hundred and fifty-two patients and 137 carers participated in the study. Thirty-nine percent of participants received specialist palliative care. Metastatic disease, global quality of life and the clinic where treatment was provided were associated with use of specialist palliative care. Age, gender, deprivation, living alone, current or most recent line of treatment, number of co-morbidities and carer stress were not associated with receipt of such services. This suggests that, for patients within the specialist cancer care system, access to specialist palliative care is offered on the basis of need.

When the number of events is low relative to the number of predictors, standard regression could produce overfitted risk models that make inaccurate predictions. Use of penalised regression may improve the accuracy of risk prediction

Objectives To review how multiple primary outcomes are currently considered in the analysis of randomised controlled trials. We briefly describe the methods available to safeguard the inferences and to raise awareness of the potential problems caused by multiple outcomes. Methods/design We reviewed randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in neurology and psychiatry disease areas, as these frequently analyse multiple outcomes. We reviewed all published RCTs from July 2011 to June 2014 inclusive in the following high impact journals: The New England Journal of Medicine, The Lancet, The American Journal of Psychiatry, JAMA Psychiatry, The Lancet Neurology and Neurology. We examined the information presented in the abstract and the methods used for sample size calculation and statistical analysis. We recorded the number of primary outcomes, the methods used to account for multiple primary outcomes, the number of outcomes discussed in the abstract and the number of outcomes used in the sample size calculation. Results Of the 209 RCTs that we identified, 60 (29%) analysed multiple primary outcomes. Of these, 45 (75%) did not adjust for multiplicity in their analyses. Had multiplicity been addressed, some of the trial conclusions would have changed. Of the 15 (25%) trials which accounted for multiplicity, Bonferroni's correction was the most commonly used method. Conclusions Our review shows that trials with multiple primary outcomes are common. However, appropriate steps are not usually taken in most of the analyses to safeguard the inferences against multiplicity. Authors should state their chosen primary outcomes clearly and justify their methods of analysis.

Background Clustered data with binary outcomes are often analysed using random intercepts models or generalised estimating equations (GEE) resulting in cluster-specific or ‘population-average’ inference, respectively. Methods When a random effects model is fitted to clustered data, predictions may be produced for a member of an existing cluster by using estimates of the fixed effects (regression coefficients) and the random effect for the cluster (conditional risk calculation), or for a member of a new cluster (marginal risk calculation). We focus on the second. Marginal risk calculation from a random effects model is obtained by integrating over the distribution of random effects. However, in practice marginal risks are often obtained, incorrectly, using only estimates of the fixed effects (i.e. by effectively setting the random effects to zero). We compare these two approaches to marginal risk calculation in terms of model calibration. Results In simulation studies, it has been seen that use of the incorrect marginal risk calculation from random effects models results in poorly calibrated overall marginal predictions (calibration slope

Objectives To determine the quality of diabetes management in primary care after the publication of the National Service Framework and examine the impact of age, gender and deprivation on the achievement of established quality indicators. Design Population-based cross sectional survey using electronic general practice records carried out between June–October 2003. Setting Thirty-four practices in Wandsworth, South-West London, UK. Participants 6035 adult patients (≥18 years) with diabetes from a total registered population of 201 572 patients. Interventions None. Main Outcome Measures Success rates for the diabetes quality indicators within the General Medical Services contract for general practitioners. Results We identified large variations in diabetes management between general practitioner practices with poorer recording of quality care in younger patients (18–44 years). In addition, younger patients had a worse cholesterol and glycaemia profile, although hypertension was more common in older patients. Gender and deprivation did not appear to be important determinants of the quality of care received. Conclusions There are large variations in diabetes management between general practitioner practices, with care seemingly worse for younger adults. Longitudinal studies are required to determine whether current UK quality improvement initiatives have been successful in attenuating existing variations in care and treatment outcomes.

To give an up-to-date assessment of the association of alcohol with female breast cancer, addressing methodological issues and shortfalls in previous overviews.Meta-analysis of studies (any language) providing original data on incidence of first primary breast cancer and alcohol. Two reviewers independently extracted data. Study quality assessed by objective criteria including degree of control for confounding; funnel plots examined for publication bias; meta-regression techniques to explore heterogeneity. Risks associated with drinking versus not drinking and dose-response not constrained through the origin estimated using random effects methods.Ninety-eight unique studies were included, involving 75,728 and 60,653 cases in drinker versus non-drinker and dose-response analyses, respectively. Findings were robust to study design and analytic approaches in the meta-analyses. For studies judged high quality, controlled for appropriate confounders, excess risk associated with alcohol drinking was 22% (95% CI: 9-37%); each additional 10 g ethanol/day was associated with risk higher by 10% (95% CI: 5-15%). There was no evidence of publication bias. Risk did not differ significantly by beverage type or menopausal status. Estimated population attributable risks were 1.6 and 6.0% in USA and UK, respectively.Taking account of shortcomings in the study base and methodological concerns, we confirm the alcohol-breast cancer association. We compared our results to those of an individual patient data analysis, with similar findings. We conclude that the association between alcohol and breast cancer may be causal.

Summary Background Morbidity after major surgery is associated with low oxygen delivery. Haemodynamic therapy aimed at increasing oxygen delivery in an effort to reduce oxygen debt, tissue injury, and morbidity, is controversial. The most appropriate target for this strategy is unclear and might have several off-target effects, including loss of neural (parasympathetic)-mediated cellular protection. We hypothesised that individualised oxygen delivery targeted haemodynamic therapy (goal-directed therapy) in high-risk surgical patients would reduce postoperative morbidity, while secondarily addressing whether goal-directed therapy affected parasympathetic function. Methods In this multicentre, randomised, double-blind, controlled trial, adult patients undergoing major elective surgery were allocated by computer-generated randomisation to a postoperative protocol (fluid, with and without dobutamine) targeted to achieve their individual preoperative oxygen delivery value (goal-directed therapy) or standardised care (control). Patients and staff were masked to the intervention. The primary outcome was absolute risk reduction (ARR) in morbidity (defined by Clavien–Dindo grade II or more) on postoperative day 2. We also assessed a secondary outcome focused on parasympathetic function, using time-domain heart rate variability measures. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. The trial was registered with Controlled Clinical Trials (number ISRCTN76894700). Findings We enrolled 204 patients between May 20, 2010, and Feb 12, 2014. Intention-to-treat analysis of the 187 (92%) patients who completed the trial intervention period showed that early morbidity was similar between goal-directed therapy (44 [46%] of 95 patients) and control groups (49 [53%] of 92 patients) (ARR −7%, 95% CI −22 to 7; p=0·30). Prespecified secondary analysis showed that 123 (66%) of 187 patients achieved preoperative oxygen delivery (irrespective of intervention). These patients sustained less morbidity (ARR 19%, 95% CI 3–34; p=0·016), including less infectious complications. Goal-directed therapy reduced parasympathetic activity postoperatively (relative risk 1·33, 95% CI 1·01–1·74). Interpretation Achievement of preoperative oxygen delivery values in the postoperative phase was associated with less morbidity, but this was not affected by the use of an oxygen delivery targeted strategy. Reduced parasympathetic activity after goal-directed therapy was associated with the failure of this intervention to reduce postoperative morbidity. Funding Academy of Medical Sciences and Health Foundation Clinician Scientist Award.

Agitation in dementia is common, persistent and distressing and can lead to care breakdown. Medication is often ineffective and harmful.To systematically review randomised controlled trial evidence regarding non-pharmacological interventions. Method We reviewed 33 studies fitting predetermined criteria, assessed their validity and calculated standardised effect sizes (SES).Person-centred care, communication skills training and adapted dementia care mapping decreased symptomatic and severe agitation in care homes immediately (SES range 0.3-1.8) and for up to 6 months afterwards (SES range 0.2-2.2). Activities and music therapy by protocol (SES range 0.5-0.6) decreased overall agitation and sensory intervention decreased clinically significant agitation immediately. Aromatherapy and light therapy did not demonstrate efficacy.There are evidence-based strategies for care homes. Future interventions should focus on consistent and long-term implementation through staff training. Further research is needed for people living in their own homes.

Background— Heart valve surgery has an associated in-hospital mortality rate of 4% to 8%. This study aims to develop a simple risk model to predict the risk of in-hospital mortality for patients undergoing heart valve surgery to provide information to patients and clinicians and to facilitate institutional comparisons. Methods and Results— Data on 32 839 patients were obtained from the Society of Cardiothoracic Surgeons of Great Britain and Ireland on patients who underwent heart valve surgery between April 1995 and March 2003. Data from the first 5 years (n=16 679) were used to develop the model; its performance was evaluated on the remaining data (n=16 160). The risk model presented here is based on the combined data. The overall in-hospital mortality was 6.4%. The risk model included, in order of importance (all P P =0.78) and discriminated between high- and low-risk patients reasonably well (receiver-operating characteristics curve area, 0.77). Conclusions— This is the first risk model that predicts in-hospital mortality for aortic and/or mitral heart valve patients with or without concomitant CABG. Based on a large national database of heart valve patients, this model has been evaluated successfully on patients who had valve surgery during a subsequent time period. It is simple to use, includes routinely collected variables, and provides a useful tool for patient advice and institutional comparisons.

Background and Purpose. Controversy exists about the effectiveness of physical therapy after arthroscopic partial meniscectomy. This randomized controlled trial evaluated the effectiveness of supervised physical therapy with a home program versus a home program alone. Subjects. Eighty-four patients (86% males; overall mean age=39 years, SD=9, range=21–58; female mean age=39 years, SD=9, range=24–58; male mean age=40, SD=9, range=21–58) who underwent an uncomplicated arthroscopic partial meniscectomy participated. Methods. Subjects were randomly assigned to either a group who received 6 weeks of supervised physical therapy with a home program or a group who received only a home program. Blinded test sessions were conducted 5 and 50 days after surgery. Outcome measures were: (1) Hughston Clinic questionnaire, (2) Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36) and EuroQol EQ-5D (EQ-5D) questionnaires, (3) number of days to return to work after surgery divided by the Factor Occupational Rating System score, (4) kinematic analysis of knee function during level walking and stair use, and (5) horizontal and vertical hops. Results. No differences between groups were found for any of the outcomes measured. Discussion and Conclusion. The results indicate that the supervised physical therapy used in this study is not beneficial for patients in the early period after uncomplicated arthroscopic partial meniscectomy.

Background: Various risk stratification systems have been developed in coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG), based mainly on patients undergoing procedures with cardiopulmonary bypass. Objective: To assess the validity and applicability of the Parsonnet score, the EuroSCORE, the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) system, and the UK CABG Bayes model in patients undergoing off-pump coronary artery bypass surgery (OPCAB) in the UK. Methods: Data on 2223 patients who underwent OPCAB in eight cardiac surgical centres were collected. Predicted mortality risk scores were calculated using the four systems and compared with observed mortality. Calibration was assessed by the Hosmer–Lemeshow (HL) test. Discrimination was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve area. Results: 30 of 2223 patients (1.3%) died in hospital. For the Parsonnet score the HL test was significant (p < 0.001) and the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) area was 0.74. For the EuroSCORE the HL test was also significant (p = 0.008) and the ROC area was 0.75. For the ACC/AHA system the HL test was non-significant (p = 0.7) and the ROC area was 0.75. For the UK CABG Bayes model the HL test was also non-significant (p = 0.3) and the ROC area was 0.81. Conclusions: The UK CABG Bayes model is reasonably well calibrated and provides good discrimination when applied to OPCAB patients in the UK. Among the other three systems, the ACC/AHA system is well calibrated but its discrimination power was less than for the UK CABG Bayes model. These data suggest that the UK CABG Bayes model could be an appropriate risk stratification system to use for patients undergoing OPCAB in the UK.