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PT.PQR adalah perusahaan penyedia jasa minyak dan gas di Indonesia yang memiliki beberapa jembatan sebagai infrastruktur penunjang transportasi dalam pengeboran minyak yang tersebar di Provinsi Riau. Jembatan PCK-03-B yang dibangun pada tahun 1959 menjadi obyek penelitian dengan fokus pada pipa-pipa penyangganya yang memiliki sambung­an pengelasan yang rentan mengalami korosi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meminimalisasi tingkat risiko yang ditimbulkan akibat kerusakan material pada pipa penyangga jembatan sebagai bagian dari kegiatan pemeliharaan terhadap kondisi material pipa penyangga. Metode Risk-Based Maintenance (RBM) digunakan dengan menentukan Probability of Failure (PoF) dan Consequence of Failure (CoF). CoF terdiri dari Stand by Availability, Financial Model dan Location Model yang dihitung untuk mendapatkan hasil berupa Criticality Matrix. Pipa penyangga PL 2 C dijadikan acuan kondisi keseluruhan jembatan PCK-03-B karena memiliki laju korosi terkritis sebesar 0,151 mm/tahun dengan sisa umur layan jembatan paling pendek yaitu 9 tahun mendatang jika dibandingkan dengan yang lainnya. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa pipa penyangga PL 2 C diperoleh nilai PoF sebesar 2 dan CoF sebesar 10 yang menunjukkan dalam kategori 2D dengan tingkat kerusakan kategori sedang. Rentang penjadwalan perbaikan jembatan PCK-03-B ditetapkan pada 8 tahun (per-2019) mendatang yaitu di tahun 2027, sebelum masa umur pakai habis, sehingga dapat meng­hindari risiko terjadinya kecelakaan yang tidak diharapkan.

This study aims to determine the risks that occur in the Construction Project of the Integrated Laboratory Building and Man 1 Library, Central Maluku. The method used is a qualitative analysis method. The subjects in this study were workers in the Integrated Laboratory Building Development Project and the Man 1 Library in Central Maluku totaling 30 samples. The primary data collection techniques are through questionnaires and secondary data collection is through work items while the data analysis methods used are Validity Test, Reality Test, and data analysis with a risk matrix., Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui risiko-risiko yang terjadi pada Proyek Pembangunan Gedung Laboratorium Terpadu dan Perpustakaan Man 1 Maluku Tengah. Metode yang digunakan adalah metode analisis kualitatif. Subjek dalam penelitian ini adalah pekerja di Proyek Pembangunan Gedung Laboratorium Terpadu dan Perpustakaan Man 1 Maluku Tengah yang berjumlah 30 sampel. Teknik pengumpulan data primer melalui kuesioner dan pengumpulan data sekunder melalui item pekerjaan sedangkan metode analisis data yang digunakan adalah Uji Validitas, Uji Realitas, dan analisis data dengan matriks risiko.

Introduction The Royal College of Pathologists of Australasia Quality Assurance Programs (RCPAQAP) Key Incident Monitoring and Management Systems (KIMMS) program has found that some existing Quality Indicators are too broad or not well defined. The risk matrix in use does not allow changes in incident Detection or Probability. In 2020, a review was performed: what issues should KIMMS include as Key Incidents and how could risk measurement be improved? Materials and methods Twenty-seven networked and stand-alone laboratories enrolled in KIMMS during 2020 were surveyed on 45 current and new indicators of risk in the total testing process. They were asked which indicators they considered were significant in causing patient harm. Existing risk matrices in use by members of the KIMMS Advisory Committee laboratories were reviewed regarding their size or structure (3x3 or 5x5) and the descriptions of consequences and probability. Results Thirteen participants indicated 21 indicators should be monitored, and the KIMMS Advisory committee added a further 13 (11 from the remaining 24 and 2 new). Of the five risk matrices reviewed, all consistently used a 5x5 matrix to estimate Consequences vs Probability of harm. The KIMMS advisory committee added a third parameter to the calculation of Risk, Detectability. Conclusion All 34 pre- and post- indicators should be monitored, covering all aspects of the total testing cycle other than analytical. The risk measurement can be improved by introducing a 5x5 risk matrix to evaluate harm (consequences x probability) and then evaluating risk by adding detectability; risk equals harm x detectability.

The glass manufacturing includes operations, such as batch forming using raw materials, melting, forming, annealing, quality check and package. Due to risky processes in glass manufacturing, significant health hazards for workers are present in the glass industry. Risk assessment is effective way to prevent accidents and protect workers from serious accidents during glass manufacturing. To assess health hazards associated with glass manufacturing, in this study Risk Matrix and The Technique for Order Preferences by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method are integrated under Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy (IVIF) environment to prioritize risk factors and suggest required preventive and protective measures. Suggested preventive and protective measures provide technical, economic and environmental challenges for glass manufacturing firms. Once the importance weight of risk parameters in Risk Matrix’ are determined, the risk factors are assessed by performing IVIF-TOPSIS method during glass manufacturing. In order to verify the validity and stability of the proposed risk assessment model, sensitivity and comparative analysis are accomplished at the end of the study.

El objetivo de este trabajo es destacar la importancia de las Asociaciones Publico privadas y el rol activo que juega la Entidad Estatal concedente en la adecuada distribución, administración y mitigación de riesgos en estos contratos, especialmente lo relacionado con el “Riesgo social”, toda vez que el mismo están relacionados con la imposibilidad de instalación y ubicación del peajes, contingencia que es relevante considerando que los recursos del recaudo de los peajes son una fuente fundamental de recursos para apalancar financieramente este tipo de contratos, por ello mediante la metodología cualitativa, con el estudio de casos, se brindan recomendaciones, para evitar la ocurrencia del riesgo social en la instalación de peajes en contractos de concesión vial bajo la modalidad APP, así mismo recomendamos a las Entidades Públicas repensar el proceso de prevención y administración del riesgo social, adaptando herramientas fundamentadas en la sostenibilidad de proyectos las cuales han sido utilizadas en matrices de riesgos de otras entidades como el Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores (programa de implementación de sostenibilidad del plan fronteras) y la Veeduría Distrital (Programa de Bogotá Como Vamos). Universidad Libre de Colombia - Facultad de Derecho - Maestría en Derecho Administrativo The objective of this work is to highlight the importance of Public Private Associations and the active role played by the granting State Entity in the adequate distribution, administration and mitigation of risks in these contracts, especially those related to "Social Risk", since that it is related to the impossibility of installing and locating the tolls, a contingency that is relevant considering that the resources from the collection of tolls are a fundamental source of resources to financially leverage this type of contract, therefore through the qualitative methodology, with In the case study, recommendations are provided to avoid the occurrence of social risk in the installation of tolls in road concession contracts under the PPP modality, likewise we recommend that Public Entities rethink the process of prevention and management of social risk, adapting tools based on the sustainability of projects which They have been used in risk matrices of other entities such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (sustainability implementation program of the border plan) and the District Oversight Office (Bogotá Como Vamos Program).

The fragmented nature of the construction industry makes the management of a project a challenge mission. The interfaces between activities require attention to ensure a smooth performance. Interfa...

This paper proposes a 3D (three dimensions) continuous risk matrix to assess the operational safety in inland container terminals (ICTs). In this paper, based on the operational features of ICTs and relevant literature, the risk factors (RFs) affecting the operational safety in ICTs are first investigated. A 3D continuous risk matrix based on a fuzzy AHP (Analytic Hierarchical Process) approach is then proposed to assess the operational safety in ICTs. Unlike the traditional risk matrix constructed by risk measures of likelihood and consequence, the proposed risk matrix considers one more risk measure: preventive-ability of an organization that can provide more accurate information for decision makers in risk assessments. Finally, the ICTs in Taiwan were empirically investigated to validate the model. Based on the results, theoretical and managerial implications are discussed.

Work accidents are things that must be avoided, so that's not inflicted loss on the company and the workers. However, several workers still not pay attention to occupational health and safety regulations and in the work area still found several potential hazards. The research is conducted at PT Pindo Deli Pulp and Paper Mills Indonesia in Karawang Regency and focuses on preventive and corrective maintenance activities that prevent paper machine breakdown. The purpose of this study is to measure how big the potential hazard and impact by using Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP) method. This method is a systematic study, which aims to find the factors that causing work accidents and find out how big the potential accidents and their impacts. The data is collected by distributing questionnaires to the employee. The results show that hazards caused by the work area and the workers themselves are 18% and 82%, respectively. Based on the severity, the number of extreme, high, medium and low risk hazards are 1, 8, 1 and 1, respectively.

The transport process is characterized by transport operations and the relationships between them, the route, the time of transport and the type of product transported. One of these parameters is the degree of risk associated with a possible disruption of the transport process. Therefore, this article aims to present the possibility of calculating the degree of risk on the selected transport route. The risk level is calculated on based on the actual risk incidents on the transport route.

This paper summarises the methodologies that HORIBA MIRA have developed to ensure acceptable safety mitigations are identified and applied within research projects involving the physical trialling ...

Construction project of building frequently has risk. Often occurring risk often is job accident. Job accident may be one of causes inhibiting project job activity. According to the data of Social Health Organizing Agency for labor, the job accident rate was 130.926 in 2017. Application of a good Construction Safety Management System is expectable to minimize resulting risk probability. This study used method of Danger Identification and Opportunity Risk Assessment (IBPRP) and Job Safety Analysis (JSA) deriving from PURR Government Regulation Number 21/2019. This study aimed at finding IBPRP and JSA designs as well as analogy of problem identification and control variables of foundation job in the Construction Project of Learning Service Building (FISIP) of General Soedirman University of Purworejo. The results of IBPRP and JSA analysis indicated that risk identification and risk rate of foundation job in construction project of Learning Service Building (FISIP) of General Soedirman University of Purwokerto, the foundation job had 48 risks identified from 11 job sequences. All of the 49 identified risks were in low risk rate, where rate value of matrix 2 (two) and 14 risks had rate value of matrix 4 (four). Keywords: Construction Safety Management System (SMKK), risk, risk rate, risk matrix, IBPRP, JSA.

Unsafe behavior is a critical risk factor in the construction industry, but it cannot be quantitatively evaluated by the traditional risk matrix (RM) method. Based on accident cases in the building...

Research and identification of a serum cryoglobulin is a current laboratory test. This analysis is complex to accredit due to, firstly, very strict pre-analytical requirements, secondly, lack of standardization between laboratories in carrying out the different phases of sampling until results validation. The method validation of this analysis, carried out to meet requirements of the NF EN ISO 15189 standard, is a complex process divided into three sub-processes: cryoglobulin research including detection and isolation of cryoprecipitate, typing by immunofixation and quantification of cryoglobulin by immunoglobulin assays. This work made it possible, thanks to the development of a risk matrix taking into account all pre-analytical, analytical and post-analytical phases, to stress the importance of technical proficiency and management of critical equipment . With this approach, the laboratory also checked homogeneity of results validation practices.

Summary Goals: With increased wildfires in recent years, winemakers now regularly need to interpret results from analyses for smoke related marker compounds to determine if smoke intrusion has impacted their wines. The goal of this study was to examine naturally occurring baseline levels of smoke exposure marker compounds in un-oaked Pinot noir to enable winemakers to better understand smoke exposure results. This study also sought to understand how baseline concentrations of smoke marker compounds change from year to year. Key Findings: Pinot noir wines from California and Oregon had detectable baseline levels of free and bound marker compounds, including guaiacol, 4-methylguaiacol, 4-ethylphenol, and, m-, p-, and o-cresol. In 2019, the baseline free guaiacol concentration ranged from 1.2–2.3 µg/L, while total (free and bound) guaiacol ranged from 6.4–12.0 µg/L. The concentration of free guaiacol was greater in older vintages, while total guaiacol largely did not change from year to year. The ratio of free to total guaiacol approached 1:2 after 5 years, suggesting baseline guaiacol may approach an equal ratio of free to bound over time. Impact and Significance: While baseline levels identified here were low, winemakers should become familiar with the baseline concentrations in their wines to better understand risk during smoke impacted vintages. With increased analysis of non-smoke impacted, baseline samples, it may be possible to create a risk matrix by wine variety for smoke exposure. Additionally, as wines age, free volatile smoke marker compounds may increase due to normal changes to baseline compounds and may not always represent smoke-related glycosides releasing free volatiles.

PurposeThis paper aims to develop a process for prioritizing project risks that integrates the decision-maker's risk attitude, uncertainty about risks both in terms of the associated probability and impact ratings, and correlations across risk assessments.Design/methodology/approachThis paper adopts a Monte Carlo Simulation-based approach to capture the uncertainty associated with project risks. Risks are prioritized based on their relative expected utility values. The proposed process is operationalized through a real application in the construction industry.FindingsThe proposed process helped in identifying low-probability, high-impact risks that were overlooked in the conventional risk matrix-based prioritization scheme. While considering the expected risk exposure of individual risks, none of the risks were located in the high-risk exposure zone; however, the proposed Monte Carlo Simulation-based approach revealed risks with a high probability of occurrence in the high-risk exposure zone. Using the expected utility-based approach alone in prioritizing risks may lead to ignoring few critical risks, which can only be captured through a rigorous simulation-based approach.Originality/valueMonte Carlo Simulation has been used to aggregate the risk matrix-based data and disaggregate and map the resulting risk profiles with underlying distributions. The proposed process supported risk prioritization based on the decision-maker's risk attitude and identified low-probability, high-impact risks and high-probability, high-impact risks.

Risk matrices are a common way to communicate the likelihood and potential impacts of a variety of risks. Until now, there has been little empirical work on their effectiveness in supporting understanding and decision making, and on how different design choices affect these. In this pair of online experiments (total n = 2699), we show that risk matrices are not always superior to text for the presentation of risk information, and that a nonlinear/geometric labeling scheme helps matrix comprehension (when the likelihood/impact scales are nonlinear). To a lesser degree, results suggested that changing the shape of the matrix so that cells increase in size nonlinearly facilitates comprehension as compared to text alone, and that comprehension might be enhanced by integrating further details about the likelihood and impact onto the axes of the matrix rather than putting them in a separate key. These changes did not affect participants' preference for reducing impact over reducing likelihood when making decisions about risk mitigation. We recommend that designers of risk matrices consider these changes to facilitate better understanding of relationships among risks.

The aim of the article is to identify the main components of government overall liabilities based on the Fiscal Risk Matrix classification introduced by the World Bank in 1999, and to estimate the amount and structure of these liabilities in European Union countries (EU Fiscal Risk Matrix). The climate liabilities definition and methodology included in the EU Fiscal Risk Matrix is also a novelty of the research. The study covered EU member states in the period 2018–2019, taking into account available data from the Eurostat database. On this basis, the EU Fiscal Risk Matrix was developed with the estimated structure of the burden of government liabilities for individual countries and the EU as a whole. The article used statistical and comparative analysis. The major conclusion of our research involves the proposal to implement a unified European methodology of government overall liabilities classification based on the EU Fiscal Risk Matrix to assess the fiscal debt burden and transparency of fiscal policy.

The novel coronavirus or COVID-19 has extended its spread across the globe, and most of the countries have reported infections. In what started as a first case single reported in Egypt has now magnified and close to about 355000+ infections have been reported across the African region as on 26-6-2020. The transmission trajectory of COVID-19 across the globe remains a mystery, and much remains to be learned. The fear of spread among nations is a cause for concern, especially among African countries with weaker governance, high poverty levels, weak health systems etc. The density of population in urban areas could be a trigger factor and could be devastating. The management and control of COVID-19 are critical to check the spread, and most of it is reliant on the health facilities in countries to carryout repeated tests. This paper aims to analyses the various parameters and tabulates a risk matrix and places it analysis using SPSS based on the available data. The analysis also provides potential insight into the vulnerabilities among African countries and a relative review of factors associated with the novel coronavirus.Keywords: SPSS, Risk Matrix, COVID-19, Pandemic, SARS, MERSJEL Classifications: I0; I1; I2; C0DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/irmm.10321

Due to the limitation of assessors’ knowledge and the uncertainty of risks, risk assessment data reasonably are given in the form of linguistic terms, safety risk assessment in petrochemical industry is often a multi-criterion and multi-expert information fusion based on linguistic terms(MCMEIF-LT) problem. A novel model dealing with the MCMEIF-LT problem is presented in this paper. Firstly, the individual linguistic assessment distributions are fused to collective distributions and multiple criteria are fused to a comprehensive criterion. In the fusion process, the objective weights of assessment experts are calculated with using the credibilities of assessment data and the attitudes of decision makers are considered. Secondly, a Fuzzy Number Weighted Ordered Weighted Aggregation(FN-WOWA) operator which can transform a fuzzy number into a crisp value is proposed. In the FN-WOWA operator, the utility function can incorporate the assessors’ loss-based risk attitudes and the membership function can reflect the importance of the values in the integrated fuzzy number. Based on crisp values, a risk matrix is constructed. Finally, a real application is demonstrated to show the flexibility and practicality of the MCMEIF-LT model.

This paper develops a risk index based on an indicator of risk assessment in terms of coastal activity location and accident type. The risk index is derived from a formula which adds the consequence of failure to a vulnerability value, then subtracts the mitigation value. Specifically, the consequence of failure is the number of casualties in coastal activity locations. An indicator of vulnerability refers to coastal environment elements and social elements. A pointer of mitigation includes managerial and organizational elements that indicate the capabilities of coastal activities. A risk rating of coastal activity location is found from a risk matrix consisting of the accident location and type. The purpose of this study is to prevent accidents at coastal activity locations by allowing the Coastal police guard to monitor effectively and inform visitors of potential risks.

espanolEl presente estudio de investigacion tiene por objetivo determinar el efecto de la auditoria tributaria preventiva en la empresa Protex S.A.C ano 2018, investigacion de enfoque cuantitativo de alcance descriptivo, de diseno no experimental, de corte transversal teniendo como variable independiente la auditoria tributaria preventiva y como variable dependiente el riesgo tributario; para el desarrollo se empleo las tecnicas analisis documentario y entrevista se analizo e interpreto el cumplimiento de obligaciones sustanciales y formales, asimismo a traves de una matriz de riesgo, donde se determino la existencia de un 41% de nivel de confianza bajo y un riesgo tributario alto; ademas se identifico los riesgos tributarios ante una fiscalizacion con determinacion de base cierta y base presunta, Concluyendo; que la auditoria tributaria preventiva tiene un efecto positivo en el riesgo tributario en la empresa Protex S.A.C Trujillo ano 2018, finalmente se recomienda tomar medidas para evitar contingencias tributarias ante futuras fiscalizaciones. EnglishThe purpose of this research study is to determine the effect of the preventive tax audit in the company Protex S.A.C year 2018, investigation of quantitative approach of descriptive scope, of non-experimental design, of cross-section having as independent variable the preventive tax audit and as dependent variable the tax risk; for the development, the documentary analysis and interview techniques were used, the fulfillment of substantial and formal obligations was analyzed and interpreted, also through a risk matrix, where the existence of a 41% low confidence level and a tax risk was determined high; in addition, tax risks were identified before an audit with determination of a certain basis and presumed basis, concluding; that the preventive tax audit has a positive effect on the tax risk in the company Protex S.A.C Trujillo year 2018, finally it is recommended to take measures to avoid future tax contingencies audits

With the rapidly increasing demands of e-government systems in smart cities, a myriad of challenges and issues are required to be addressed. Among them, security is one of the prime concerns. To this end, we analyze different e-government systems and find that an e-government system built with container-based technology is endowed with many features. In addition, overhauling the architecture of container-technology-driven e-government systems, we observe that securing an e-government system demands quantifying security issues (vulnerabilities, threats, attacks, and risks) and the related countermeasures. Notably, we find that the Attack Tree and Attack–Defense Tree methods are state-of-the-art approaches in these aspects. Consequently, in this paper, we work on quantifying the security attributes, measures, and metrics of an e-government system using Attack Trees and Attack–Defense Trees—in this context, we build a working prototype of an e-government system aligned with the United Kingdom (UK) government portal, which is in line with our research scope. In particular, we propose a novel measure to quantify the probability of attack success using a risk matrix and normal distribution. The probabilistic analysis distinguishes the attack and defense levels more intuitively in e-government systems. Moreover, it infers the importance of enhancing security in e-government systems. In particular, the analysis shows that an e-government system is fairly unsafe with a 99% probability of being subject to attacks, and even with a defense mechanism, the probability of attack lies around 97%, which directs us to pay close attention to e-government security. In sum, our implications can serve as a benchmark for evaluation for governments to determine the next steps in consolidating e-government system security.

В статье рассмотрены проблемы функционирования морских терминалов, связанных с технологией обработки опасных грузов, что может негативно воздействовать на здоровье рабочих и причинить экологический ущерб окружающей среде. Проведен анализ метода рисков HAZID, который является наиболее эффективным средством для уменьшения серьезных последствий при разработке и развитии новых проектов по экспорту углеводородов. Целью работы является подробное изучение алгоритма проведения метода HAZID, определение целей и задач его проведения. Для каждого выявленного сценария рисков предложено предусмотреть разработку ранжирования рисков с использованием матрицы рисков, включая ранжирование частоты и степени тяжести., The topic of this article is relevant due to the fact that the functioning of sea terminals is inextricably linked with the technology of handling dangerous goods, which, in turn, leads to negative consequences for the health of workers and environmental damage to the environment. HAZID risk analysis is the most effective tool to reduce the risks of serious consequences in the operation and development of new projects for the export of hydrocarbons. The purpose of the work is a detailed study of the algorithm for conducting the HAZID method, determining the goals and objectives of its implementation. Subsequently, for each risk scenario identified, a risk ranking is developed using a risk matrix, including frequency and severity rankings.

In the conditions of the stagnation of the global economy, the issues of finding the optimal strategy that would allow taking into account the balance of interests between costs, opportunities, performance of the company's technical assets and risks come to the forefront of the company's management. To this end, the URRAN system has been created, operated and developed in the Russian railway transport -a system for managing the reliability, safety, and resources of transport facilities based on risk assessment. Within the framework of this system, the tasks of operational collection, processing and analysis of the current state of reliability and safety of transport facilities, the activities of structural units are solved on the basis of risk assessment of maintenance management, assignments of major repairs, modernization and modification of transport facilities. The reliability and safety of transport facilities are managed within the framework of Big Data using artificial intelligence methods. Fire safety management is carried out using an automated fire risk management system, which is part of the URRAN system. It allows, based on the results of the fire risk forecast, to make a decision on the need for repair, replacement or maintenance of transport facilities and their fire safety system.

Road network type and its surroundings play an important role in road traffic accidents. This heterogeneity is due to the diverse nature of the driving population, traffic characteristics, weather conditions, roadside features, and design considerations. Previous research investigation has found different factors associated with accidents, but there is a lack of research in the area-wise categorization of risk factors. In this prospect, the present study endeavors to find factors responsible for the accident in various zones in Nagpur City. And to identify the pattern and impact caused by the individual characteristics features on multiple zones. Overall, three types of zones have been selected based on accident risk level viz. high-risk zone, medium risk zone, and a low-risk zone: and represented as Zone-I, Zone-II, and Zone-III. The process of zone formation is performed in ArcGIS software using the kernel density estimator function. The accident data is obtained from the Nagpur traffic police accident database from 2016 to 2018. The fault tree analysis gave the risk factor. And risk matrix was employed to assess the risk level associated with each risk factor in a specific zone. The result shows that zone-I has more probability of a fatal crash at night-time than at daytime; Zone-II has more injury crash probability at day time. Zone-III is a low crash occurrence area but has a slightly more fatal crash probability at night-time. The average possibility of a fatal crash at night-time in zone-I is 2.97 times compared to that in the daytime.

This thesis explores how decision makers could use the Monterey Phoenix (MP) behavior modeling tool developed at the Naval Postgraduate School to assess, visualize, and prioritize cyber risk in a supply chain. Assessing supply chain risk is a complex problem because of the inter-relationships among various parts of the system and between the system and its environment. This thesis applies and extends a reusable methodology to analyze risk in MP, developed by Navy LCDR Richard Moebius in 2018, to the use case of a cyber-attack on a jet fuel supply chain, first modeled by student interns from the National Security Agency. It assesses and displays risk for single- and multi-threat use cases, and for the first time, adds the global report to an MP model for assessing risk. It demonstrates how MP can overcome the limitations of existing tools, like the risk table, risk map, and risk matrix. For example, MP automatically generates an exhaustive list of potential risk scenarios; MP sequence diagrams provide context on the system, its environment, and relationships among different risks; MP easily and quickly updates the model to support "what if" questions; and MP displays aggregate and average risk across the system and sorts scenarios by a user-defined risk threshold. Finally, the work describes how decision makers from different backgrounds can interact with the MP model to improve their understanding and prioritization of risk. Outstanding Thesis Civilian, Department of the Navy Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The risk ranking of the severity and the consequences of site closures due to Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) incidents was estimated through the development of a numerical risk matrix for the Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis L. commercial exploitation, in Greece. Results showed that site closures due to HABs that lasted more than 4 to 6 weeks during the harvest season (spring to late summer) could be catastrophic.

The working conditions of underground mining are complex and variable, and roof fall and rib spalling are one of the main types of accidents that can occur. Building an integrated model to evaluate the risk of roof fall and rib spalling is the foundation of mine safety. On the basis of the inherent attributes of event risk, the fuzzy evaluation set and probability of basic events are obtained by using the fuzzy fault tree analysis method based on the sample's fuzzy information. Subsequently, the likelihood of roof fall and rib spalling is determined. Consequence severity data are obtained by using the dynamic fuzzy logic method, and the consequence severity grade of roof fall and rib spalling is evaluated via the dynamic fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The event risk level is determined by the risk matrix method. Roof fall and rib spalling in a non-coal mine is analyzed and evaluated by using fuzzy fault tree analysis and dynamic fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The weak links in the operation of an underground mine are identified by fuzzy fault tree analysis as "mining process, roof management, support and reinforcement." Then, the risk development trend is determined by the dynamic fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The risk matrix method is integrated to determine whether the risk level of the mine is "high risk, unacceptable" and expected to deteriorate in the future. The results show the validity and feasibility of the risk analysis and prediction model for roof fall and rib spalling.

Introduction/purpose: When performing the explosive welding procedure, for the safety of workers, it is necessary to take into account the minimum distance between the workers and the place of explosion at the time of explosion. Negligence can cause temporary hearing loss, rupture of the eardrum and in some cases even the death of workers. The aim of this paper is to determine the critical distance based on the mass of explosive charge required for explosive welding, provided that the limit pressure is 6.9 kPa in the case of temporary hearing loss and 35 kPa in the case of eardrum rupture. This paper does not take into account other effects of the explosion than those caused by the shock wave. Methods: Depending on the type of explosion, the equivalent explosive mass was calculated. Based on the equivalent explosive mass and the limit pressure, the minimum distances were calculated using the Sadovsky and Kingery-Bulmash equations. Results: The corresponding tables show the results of the calculation of the critical distance of workers from the place of the explosion when there may be temporary hearing loss or rupture of the eardrum. The calculated value of the critical explosion distance by the Kingery-Bulmash method, under the condition of the maximum pressure for temporary hearing loss, is 5.62% lower than the distance value obtained by the Sadovsky method while the value of the critical explosion distance calculated by the Kingery-Bulmash method, under the condition of the maximum pressure for eardrum rupture, is 7.83% lower than the value obtained by the Sadovsky method. Conclusion: The results of the calculation showed that the critical distance from the explosion can be successfully calculated and that the obtained values have small differences depending on the applied calculation method.

Cash on delivery is one of the payment methods provided to customers by the enterprises. In this article, the links of cash on delivery transactions were decomposed and divided into detailed nodes. Based on the survey data, the qualitative and quantitative analysis on risks associated with the cash on delivery process were carried out using the social network model. The influential risk factors of cash on delivery were precisely narrowed in scope. Fuzzy Petri Net was then used in identifying the dynamic risk factors, analyzing the correlation between dynamic risk factors and subsequent nodes, and establishing risk matrix to analyze the relationship between risk index grade, risk size and risk level. Finally, the two methods were combined and a reasonable and effective risk evaluation index system was obtained. The presented work was expected to serve as reference for the e-commerce platforms to reduce the risks and improve the service quality in the cash on delivery transactions.

Las organizaciones desarrollan sus actividades en contextos expuestos a infinidad de riesgos que amenazan su continuidad en el tiempo. El presente trabajo de investigación tiene como objetivo la realización de un diagnóstico de la administración de riesgos vinculados al suministro y gestión de insumos críticos para el proceso de producción de fertilizantes de una empresa industrial de la ciudad de Bahía Blanca, con la finalidad de desarrollar una matriz de riesgos que permita su gestión. En función del objetivo, se optó por un enfoque de carácter cualitativo y con propósito descriptivo a través del estudio de caso. Se identificaron los riesgos internos y externos a los que se encuentra expuesto el proceso analizado. Estos fueron presentados en la matriz de riesgos, lo que permitió detectar aquellos que poseen mayor criticidad y que requieren una acción de corrección inmediata. Finalmente, se propusieron acciones de control para gestionarlos.

Logging companies are extremely important in the economy of the country, but the large number of occupational accidents is of concern in this sector. It is therefore essential to act preventively in the cause of these accidents by identifying and controlling hazards. Thus, the objective of this work was to elaborate an Occupational Health and Safety Risk Matrix in a logging plant in Criciúma - SC. To this end, the applied matrix is based on the requirements set forth in BS OHSAS 18001: 2007. As a result it was observed that the greatest risk is incorrect posture and intense physical effort, as well as noise and projection of wood residues in the eyes and skin. It was inferred that with the matrix it was possible to identify the points in which a company should seek quick solutions to minimize the risks to which its employees are subjected daily.

The requirements on the design of safety instrumented systems based on safety integrity level (SIL) have been developed continuously in the oil and gas industries. IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 explain various methods to determine the target SIL for specified safety functions, such as risk graph, risk matrix and layer of protection analysis. These methods could achieve different target SIL for the same safety function, principally due to uncertainty in the models. Additionally, uncertainties in the input parameters donate uncertainty in the output (target SIL). Based on conventional practice in oil and gas industry, engineer usually use different methods such as risk graph, hazardous event severity matrix and LOPA to evaluate target SILs for the same function and accept the most conservative value as the target SIL. In this paper, the uncertainty assessment in target SIL determination evaluated by the risk graph method using new fuzzy set approach has been done and finally a new framework based on this method is proposed.

This paper mainly proposes a novel method to construct a risk matrix for assessing safety risks in oil and gas industry. There are often multiple experts and multiple criteria involved in safety risk assessment problems and the assessment data are often given in the form of interval numbers. In order to better assess risks, the definition of interval number with distribution function and utility function is proposed in this paper. The frequency and the consequence of risk are only two needed indicators in risk matrix and their values are needed in the form of crisp values. So a multi-expert and multi-criterion information fusion based on interval number(MEMCIF-IN) model is built in this paper. Firstly, a multi-expert and multi-criterion fusion model is constructed to combine individual interval numbers into a collective interval number and integrate multiple criteria into a comprehensive index. In the fusion model, the weights of assessment experts are calculated based on the objective weights and the subjective weights simultaneously and the information of individual interval numbers is preserved without information loss in the final result. Secondly, a Continuous Weighted Ordered Weighted Aggregation(C-WOWA) operator is proposed. In the C-WOWA operator, the position weights which are generated by utility function and the importance weights which are generated by probability density function are considered at the same time. The position weights in the C-WOWA operator can correct the impact of experts’ risk attitudes and the importance weights can reflect the importance of the points themselves in an interval number. Finally, a risk matrix is constructed to show which risk is high and which is low. In addition, an application is implemented to show the practicality and rationality of the proposed method.

Reducing negative risk and the associated contingency cost in a project becomes a challenging task for managers. Inadequate and excessive contingency can lead to budget overrun and bidding loss, respectively. In the other hand, lowering the contingency also needs risk-handling cost which will, in turn, be added to project budget. Within limited budget, managers should make an optimum adjustment between reduction of contingency and the increase of risk-handling cost from multiple risk items with different levels. This study proposes a mathematical model in combination with risk matrix function and performed the computation using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm. The proposed model and algorithm are applied on a sub-sea pipeline installation project done by a company in Indonesia. This project influenced by several risk due to uncertain weather, social-economic condition, and technical condition. The computation result demonstrated that PSO could solve the adjustment problem without any violation to the model’s constraints. Besides minimizing risk contingency while keeping total budget at lowest amount, the proposed model could also provide recommendations for appropriate risk response strategy (either acceptance, mitigation, transference or avoidance).

According to the requirements of the international and state regulatory documents, all aircraft operators (AC) must have implemented and constantly evolving safety management systems (SMS). The functions of the SMS can be divided into two control profiles: flight safety assurance (FSA) and risk management (RM). If the procedures for the FSA control profile can be considered studied and implemented under operating conditions, the RM profile needs its terms to be definite as well as unambiguous and it also needs the scientific and methodological provision of mandatory procedures common to all aircraft operators. In order to avoid ambiguities in the presentation and implementation of the RM process, this article provides the basic standard definitions used in the presented methodology for quantitative risk assessment. The methodology envisages estimating the probability of an aviation event of a certain type (severity) in two ways: either through the statistical probability (frequency) of this type of events after the fact (if the events took place in the estimated period); or through the calculated statistical probability of an event of a less serious type and the conditional probability of the progress of a more serious event. In the formulas given for calculating the probabilities, a previously developed method of indirect estimation of the probability of accidents was used and the ratios of the number of events of different types of severity for each group of causal factors updated to the new statistics: "Human factor", "AC" and "Environment". In order to quantify the level of risk, an updated risk assessment matrix has been proposed and approved in the UTair airline SMS based on the ICAO matrix adapted to control risk management for the FSA. The methodology ensures the fulfillment of the requirements of the Government Decree dated November 18, 2014 No. 1215 by all aircraft operators, its scope can be extended to the SMS of all aviation service providers, taking into account the relevant specifics of the services provided.

The bursting of large-diameter water pipelines in distribution systems will lead to industrial, economic, and public safety impacts. Therefore, multi-criteria analysis (MCA) was applied in this study, which utilizes a series of quantifiable parameters to establish the mathematical method of a risk model. The risk matrix of a pipeline was defined as the multiple of the probability of pipeline failure and potential consequences of pipeline failure. By combining the GIS (geographic information system), each evaluation unit was assigned to different risk levels. The large-diameter (above 800 mm) pipeline length statistic for various risk evaluation units of Taiwan Water Corporation reveals the length of high risk is 171 km (7.7%), secondary high risk 574.6 km (25.8%), middle risk 714.3 km (32%), low risk 701.5 km (31.5%), and the unranked length is 67.8 km (3.0%). Finally, the detection frequencies were classified as high risk with a term check of every five years, sub-high risk with planned check every five to ten years, medium risk with checking/monitoring if needed, and low risk with quick repair and no need to take measurements and monitoring. Therefore, we can significantly lower the probability of bursting for large-diameter pipelines in the water distribution system.

Risk matrix, as a well know tool for corporate finance, penetrates public finance as a simplified idea in budgetary guides in a small number of leading countries only. At the same time the complexity of socio-economic environment of public finance, needs of public finance manageability and high sovereign debt call for advanced the risk matrix design. The first step of the research is the observation of the leading countries’ matrix examples and articles targeting the same topic to determine the risk matrix structure. The second step involves comprehensive reading of the most transparent countries to create a list of the matrix factors. The factors include key socio-economic events as sources of risks and key budgetary variables changes as types of risks. The third step ranges the matrix elements (cells) by their occurrence in G20 countries based on comprehensive reading of IMF countries’ reports. The research result is a one-page risk matrix with 10x13 key factors and many ranging elements, designed as the compromise between the environment complexity and manageability needs for public finance.