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One of humanity’s major challenges of the 21st century will be meeting future food demands on an increasingly resource constrained-planet. Global food production will have to rise by 70 percent between 2000 and 2050 to meet effective demand which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity is an even greater challenge. This study looks at the interdependencies between land and water resources, agricultural production and environmental outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), an area of growing importance in international agricultural markets. Special emphasis is given to the role of LAC’s agriculture for (a) global food security and (b) environmental sustainability. We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)—a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector—to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050, and assess changes in related environmental indicators. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Finally, our analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths.

This report has been prepared in response to growing concerns about the impacts of climate change on Latin American economies, agriculture, and people. Findings suggest that because of the climate change impacts on agricultural production (yield change) and international food prices, unless proper mitigation measures are implemented, by 2050 Brazil and Mexico may face accumulated economic loses between US$ 272.7 billion and US$ 550.6 billion and between US$ 91.0 billion and US$ 194.7, respectively. Peru, with a different productive structure, may face both economic gain and loss (a gain of US$11.0 billion against a loss of US$ 43.3 billion).

Agriculture’s reliance on irrigation and concerns over water scarcity raise the question of how global food output and trade could be affected if the issue of water shortfall needs to be resolved on the back of agriculture. To understand changes in food production and international agricultural trade as the responses to local water shortage, we construct a computable general equilibrium model in which irrigation water supply reliability is perturbed. The results suggest that regions under water stress cut back food production and turn into net food importers, although domestic water productivity improves. The regions’ welfare falls, primarily due to less endowment available for agriculture and decline in the terms of trade.

Changes in the agriculture sector are essential to mitigate and adapt to climate change, ensure food security for the growing population, and improve the livelihoods of poor smallholder producers. What agricultural strategies are needed to meet these challenges? To what extent are there synergies among these strategies? This paper examines these issues for smallholder producers in Kenya. Several practices emerge as triple wins in terms of climate adaptation, GHG mitigation, and productivity and profitability. In particular, integrated soil fertility management and improved livestock feeding are shown to provide multiple benefits across the agroecological zones examined. In addition, irrigation and soil and water conservation are also shown to be essential in the arid zone. The results suggest that agricultural investments targeted towards triple-win strategies will have the greatest payoff in terms of increased resilience of farm and pastoralist households to climate change, rural development, and climate change mitigation for generations to come.

In 1999, the Government of China enforced a cross-provincial, quota-based Water Allocation Agreement that was developed in 1987 and titled Unified Water Flow Regulation (UWFR) to ensure that flow to the Yellow River mouth would not be cut off. This policy was in line with the refocus of the Government, over the last decade, on sustainable water use and keeping the Yellow River healthy. The policy enforcement ended more than two decades of flow-cutoffs, that is, periods when the Yellow River did not reach the Bohai Sea at its mouth, during an increasing number of days every year.

This series of IFPRI Research Briefs is based on research supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany, under the project "Food and Water Security under Global Change: Developing Adaptive Capacity with a Focus on Rural Africa," which forms part of the CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food. Through collaboration with the Center for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, the Ethiopian Development Research Institute, the Ethiopian Economics Association, and the University of Hamburg, the project aims to provide policymakers and stakeholders in Ethiopia and South Africa with tools to better understand and analyze the consequences of global change-in particular climate change-and to form policy decisions that facilitate adaptation in these countries and bey." from text

According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, warming in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is expected to be greater than the global average, and rainfall will decline in certain areas. Global circulation models (GCMs), which provide an understanding of climate and project climate change, tend to agree that temperatures are increasing across the region, but models vary widely regarding predicted changes in precipitation—with the exception of some agreement that precipitation decreases from June to August in southern Africa and increases from December to February in eastern Africa. Whether the Sahel will be more or less wet in the future remains uncertain. Given the limited agreement of GCMs, the University of Illinois and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) developed a global comprehensive climate change scenario combining 17 models selected for their past performance in predicting temperature and precipitation.

Global climate change influences the economic performance of all countries, and Indonesia is no exception. Under climate change, Indonesia is predicted to experience temperature increases of approximately 0.8°C by 2030. Moreover, rainfall patterns are predicted to change, with the rainy season ending earlier and the length of the rainy season becoming shorter. Climate change affects all economic sectors, but the agricultural sector is generally the hardest hit in terms of the number of poor affected. We assess climate change impacts for Indonesia using an Indonesian computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that focuses on the agricultural sector. Climate change input data were obtained from the International Food Policy Research Institute's International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade. Our results show that by 2030, global climate change will have a significant and negative effect on the Indonesian economy as a whole. In these projections, we see important impacts for particular sectors in the CGE model, especially for the agricultural sector (both producers and consumers) and in rural areas and for poorer households. Real gross domestic product (GDP) drops slightly and the consumer price index (CPI) increases by a small amount. Negative GDP growth is chiefly the result of adverse impacts on agriculture and agro-based industries, with the largest impact for soybeans, rice, and paddy (unmilled rice). Decreasing output of paddy and rice will adversely affect the country's food security. Domestic prices for paddy and rice increase significantly, pushing up the CPI. Taking international food price shocks into account would increase negative impacts. We find that addressing constraints to agricultural productivity growth through increased public agricultural research investments will be important to counteract adverse impacts of climate change. Enhanced awareness of both government agencies and farmers will be needed for the rural economy to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change.

Water scaricity is an increasingly critical issue for food production around the world. This is particularly true for the world's poorest region, Sub-Saharan Africa, due to its growing malnutrition and almost complete dependence on rainfed agriculture. Given that agriculture is the primary consumer of freshwater around the globe and the demand for domestic, industrial, and environment water uses is steadily rising, strategies for the sustainable use of water in agriculture are urgently needed

Two factors critical to assuring food security, whether at the local or the global level, are increasing crop productivity and increasing access to sustainable water supplies. These factors are also vital to the economic success of agriculture, which is particu­larly important in Ethiopia given that the sector accounts for about 41 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), produces 80 percent of its exports, employs 80 percent of the labor force, and is a major source of income and subsistence for the nation’s poor.

Although irrigation in Africa has the potential to boost agricultural productivities by at least 50 percent, food production on the continent is almost entirely rainfed. The area equipped for irrigation, currently slightly more than 13 million hectares, makes up just 6 percent of the total cultivated area. Eighty-five percent of Africa’s poor live in rural areas and mostly depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. As a result, agricultural development is key to ending poverty on the continent. Many development organizations have recently proposed to significantly increase investments in irrigation in the region. However, the potential for irrigation investments in Africa is highly dependent upon geographic, hydrologic, agronomic, and economic factors that need to be taken into account when assessing the long-term viability and sustainability of planned projects. This paper analyzes large, dam-based and small-scale irrigation investment needs in Africa based on agronomic, hydrologic, and economic factors. This type of analysis can guide country- and local-level assessment of irrigation potential, which will be important to agricultural and economic development in Africa.

Ethiopia is susceptible to frequent climate extremes such as disastrous droughts and floods. These disastrous climatic events, which have caused significant adverse effects on the country’s economy and society, are expected to become more pronounced in the future under climate change. To identify the potential threat of climate change to the Ethiopian economy, this study analyzes three major factors that are changing under global warming: water availability under higher temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, the impact of changing precipitation patterns on flooding, and the potential impact on crop production of the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect. These issues are analyzed based on an existing multi-market-sector model for the Ethiopian economy, with a focus on agriculture. Our analysis finds that the major impact of climate change on Ethiopia’s economy will result from more frequent occurrence of extreme hydrologic events, which cause losses in both the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors. To adapt to these long-term changes, Ethiopia should invest in enhanced water control to expand irrigation and improve flood protection.

This paper analyzes the effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Limpopo River Basin of Southern Africa, using a semidistributed hydrological model and the Water Simulation Module of the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). The analysis focuses on the effects of climate change on hydrology and irrigation in parts of the four riparian countries within the basin: Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. Results show that water resources of the Limpopo River Basin are already stressed under todays climate conditions. Projected water management and infrastructure changes are expected to improve the situation by 2030 if current climate conditions continue into the future. However, under the four climate change scenarios studied here, water supply situations are expected to worsen considerably by 2030. Assessing hydrological impacts of climate change is crucial given that expansion of irrigated areas has been postulated as a key adaptation strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa. Such expansion will need to take into account future changes in water availability in African river basins.

While agriculture accounts for an estimated 10 to 14 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions, its role as a mitigating force is receiving increasing attention. This discussion paper provides a quick overview of the literature on the climate change mitigation potential of agriculture, the regulatory and voluntary frameworks under which such a contribution could be rewarded, and the economic literature that focuses on agriculture’s participation in climate change mitigation efforts. While there is general agreement on the potential for mitigation, several barriers have prevented farmers from entering the so-called carbon markets. The paper reviews the main challenges faced by smallholder farmers in accessing such markets.

Climate change impacts vary significantly, depending on the scenario and the Global Circulation Model (GCM) chosen. This is particularly true for Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper uses a comprehensive climate change scenario (CCC) based on ensembles of 17 GCMs selected based on their relative performance regarding past predictions of temperature and precipitation at the level of 2o x 2o grid cells, generated by a recently developed entropy-based downscaling model. Based on past performance, the effects of temperature and precipitation across the 17 GCMs are incorporated into a global hydrological model that is linked with IFPRI's IMPACT water and food projections model to assess the effects of climate change on food outcomes for the region. For Sub-Saharan Africa, the paper finds that the CCC scenario predicts consistently higher temperatures and mixed precipitation changes for the 2050 period. Compared to historic climate scenarios, climate change will lead to changes in yield and area growth, higher food prices and therefore lower affordability of food, reduced calorie availability, and growing childhood malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa.

This study adopted the multinomial logit model to analyze factors affecting the choice of coping strategies in response to climate extreme events for the Ethiopian Nile River Basin. Results from the multinomial logit model show that different socioeconomic and environmental factors affect coping with climate extreme events. Factors that positively influence coping include education of the head of household, gender of household head being male, farm income, livestock ownership, access to extension for crop and livestock production, farmer-to-farmer extension, temperature, ownership of radio, and better-quality house. Thus, to increase coping with covariate shocks, such as climate extreme events, policies should encourage income generation and asset holding (especially livestock), both of which will support consumption smoothing during and immediately after harsh climatic events. Moreover, government policies should focus on developing institutions that enhance access to education and extension services.

The agricultural sector in developing countries is particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change. Given Ethiopia's dependence on agriculture and natural resources, any adverse agricultural effects will pose serious risks to economic growth and livelihoods across the country. Soil and water conservation technologies have been suggested as a key adaptation strategy for developing countries, particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa, in light of increased water shortages, drought, desertification, and worsening soil conditions. According to a survey of 1,000 households in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia, more than 30 percent of farmers adopted soil and water conservation measures in response to perceived long-term changes in temperature and rainfall. Although soil and water conservation technologies are generally considered low-cost, they still engender risk for very low-income, risk-averse households, which are prevalent in rural Ethiopia. Thus, it is important to consider the impacts not only on crop yields, but also on risk levels. This brief is based on a study that investigates the risk implications of various soil and water conservation technologies for crop production in Ethiopia's Nile River Basin. The analysis identifies technologies that increase and decrease crop production risk-with risk defined as the degree of yield variability-for the purpose of isolating which technologies are best suited to particular regions and agroecological zones. These results could be used to improve the geographical targeting of soil conservation techniques as part of efforts to promote farm-level adaptation to climate change.

In southern Africa, by the middle of the 21st century climate change is expected to cause temperature increases of 1–3°C, broad summer rainfall reductions of 5–10 percent, and an increase in the incidence of both droughts and floods. Consequently, climate change has significant potential to negatively affect crop production in South Africa, and in turn the well-being of the country’s farmers. This brief is based on a study that examines the level of vulnerability to climate change in South Africa’s farming sector by developing a nationwide provincial-level vulnerability profile. Particular attention is paid to the underlying socioeconomic and institutional factors that determine how farmers respond to and cope with climate hazards.

Approximately 80 percent of poor people in Sub-Saharan Africa continue to depend on the agricultural sector for their livelihoods, but-unlike in other regions of the world-agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa is characterized by very low yields due to agroecological features, poor access to services, lack of knowledge and inputs, and low levels of investment in infrastructure and irrigation. In addition, high population growth rates, especially in rural areas, intensify pressure on agricultural production and natural resources and further complicate the challenge of reducing poverty. Against this background, potential climate change poses a significant additional challenge to the future of agriculture in the region. Climate change could cause serious deterioration of rural livelihoods and increase food insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa. Given these multiple challenges, the region's smallholders and pastoralists must adapt, in particular by adopting technologies to increase productivity and the stability and resilience of their production systems.

"This paper analyzes the vulnerability of South African farmers to climate change and variability by developing a vulnerability index and comparing vulnerability indicators across the nine provinces of the country. Nineteen environmental and socio-economic indicators are identified to reflect the three components of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results of the study show that the region's most vulnerable to climate change and variability also have a higher capacity to adapt to climate change. Furthermore, vulnerability to climate change and variability is intrinsically linked with social and economic development. The Western Cape and Gauteng provinces, which have high levels of infrastructure development, high literacy rates, and low shares of agriculture in total GDP, are relatively low on the vulnerability index. In contrast, the highly vulnerable regions of Limpopo, KwaZulu Natal and the Eastern Cape are characterized by densely populated rural areas, large numbers of small-scale farmers, high dependency on rainfed agriculture and high land degradation. These large differences in the extent of vulnerability among provinces suggest that policy makers should develop region-specific policies and address climate change at the local level." from authors' abstract

"Water management in the Pirapama River Basin in northeastern Brazil is affected by both water quantity and water quality constraints. The region is known for significant sugarcane-based ethanol production—which is key to the Brazilian economy and expected to grow dramatically under recent global changes in energy policy. Sugarcane production in the region goes hand in hand with controlled fertirrigation practices with potentially significant adverse impacts on the environment. To assess sustainable water allocation in the basin, an integrated hydrologic-economic basin model is adapted to study both water quantity and water quality aspects. The model results show that incorporating water quality aspects into water allocation decisions leads to a substantial reduction in application of vinasse to sugarcane fields. To enforce water quality restrictions, the shadow price for maintaining water in the reservoir could be used as a pollution tax for fertirrigated areas, which are currently not subject to pollution charges." from authors' abstract

"Ethiopia’s agricultural sector, which is dominated by smallscale, mixed crop, and livestock farming, is the mainstay of the country’s economy. It constitutes more than half the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP), generates more than 85 percent of the foreign exchange earnings, and employs about 80 percent of the population. Ethiopia’s dependence on agriculture makes the country particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change on crop and livestock production. This brief is based on a paper that analyzes the vulnerability of Ethiopian farmers to climate change by creating a vulnerability index and comparing vulnerability indicators across regions. A regional vulnerability index can assist in identifying the areas of Ethiopia that are most vulnerable to climate change and guide policymakers in determining where investments in adaptation may be most effective in reducing the future adverse effects of climate change." from text

Maize is the primary food staple in southern Africa, and 50 percent of the total maize output in the area is produced in South Africa, where maize constitutes approximately 70 percent of grain production and covers 60 percent of the country's cropping area. Climate change could have a significant impact on South African maize production. The scientific community has established that the temperature in South Africa increased significantly between 1960 and 2003 (by 0.13 degrees Celsius), and further temperature increases and changes in the quantity and pattern of rainfall are expected despite any attempts by the international community to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Although the maize plant is quite hardy and adaptable to harsh conditions, warmer temperatures and lower levels of precipitation could have detrimental effects on yields, thereby increasing food insecurity in the region. This brief is based on a paper that uses household survey data to explore the direct impact of climate variability, measured by changes in temperature and precipitation, on maize yields in the Limpopo Basin of South Africa.

"Ethiopia's agricultural sector, which is dominated by smallscale, mixed-crop, and livestock farming, is the mainstay of the country's economy. It constitutes more than half of the country's gross domestic product, generates more than 85 percent of foreign exchange earnings, and employs about 80 percent of the population. Unfortunately, Ethiopia's dependence on agriculture makes the country particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change on crop and livestock production. Thus, a deeper understanding of the complex interdependence between changing climatic conditions and Ethiopia's agricultural sector— together with adaptation options—is crucial. Additional information about farmers' awareness of climate change and current adaptation approaches would assist policymakers in their efforts to decrease the country's vulnerability to the adverse impacts of climate change. This brief is based on a study that endeavors to guide policymakers on ways to promote greater adaptation by identifying the household characteristics that increase farmers' awareness of climate change and influence farmers' decision to adapt." from text

"Growing consensus in the scientific community indicates that higher temperatures and changing precipitation levels resulting from climate change will depress crop yields in many countries over the coming decades. This is particularly true in low-income countries, where adaptive capacity is low. Many African countries are particularly vulnerable to climate change because their economies largely depend on climate-sensitive agricultural production. This brief is based on a study that used household survey data to analyze the impact of climate change on food production in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. The study also examined the factors influencing adaptation and the implications of various adaptation strategies for farm productivity." from text

Ethiopia's agricultural sector, which is dominated by smallscale, mixed-crop, and livestock farming, is the mainstay of the country's economy. It constitutes more than half of the country's gross domestic product, generates more than 85 percent of foreign exchange earnings, and employs about 80 percent of the population. Unfortunately, Ethiopia's dependence on agriculture makes the country particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change on crop and livestock production. Thus, a deeper understanding of the complex interdependence between changing climatic conditions and Ethiopia's agricultural sector- together with adaptation options-is crucial. Additional information about farmers' awareness of climate change and current adaptation approaches would assist policymakers in their efforts to decrease the country's vulnerability to the adverse impacts of climate change. This brief is based on a study that endeavors to guide policymakers on ways to promote greater adaptation by identifying the household characteristics that increase farmers' awareness of climate change and influence farmers' decision to adapt.

"Global climate change poses great risks to poor people whose livelihoods depend directly on the use of natural resources. Mitigation of the adverse effects of climate change is a high priority on the international agenda. Carbon trading, under the Kyoto Protocol as well as outside the protocol, is growing rapidly from a small base and is expected to increase dramatically under present trends. However, developing countries, in particular Sub-Saharan Africa, remain marginalized in global carbon markets, with Africa's market share constituting less than 1 percent (excluding South Africa and North African countries). The potential for mitigation through agriculture in the African region is estimated at 17 percent of the global total, and the economic potential (i.e. considering carbon prices) is estimated at 10 percent of the total global mitigation potential. Similarly, Africa's forestry potential per year is 14 percent of the global total, and the avoided-deforestation potential accounts for 29 percent of the global total. Appropriate climate-change policies are needed to unleash this huge potential for pro-poor mitigation investment in Sub-Saharan Africa. Such policies should focus on increasing the profitability of environmentally sustainable practices that generate income for small producers and create investment flows for rural communities. Pro-poor investments, community development, new research, and capacity building can all help integrate the agriculture, forestry, and land-use systems of developing countries into the carbon trading system, both generating income gains and advancing environmental security. Achieving this result will require effective integration, from the global governance of carbon trading to the sectoral and micro-level design of markets and contracts, as well as investment in community management. Streamlining the measurement and enforcement of offsets, financial flows, and carbon credits for investors is also needed. This review paper begins with an overview of global carbon markets, including opportunities for carbon trading, and the current involvement of developing countries, with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa. This is followed by an assessment of the mitigation potential and options involving agriculture, land use, and forestry. The major constraints to the participation of Sub-Saharan Africa in global carbon markets are discussed, and options for integrating the region into global carbon markets are proposed." from authors' abstract

"This study identifies the major methods used by farmers to adapt to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia, the factors that affect their choice of method, and the barriers to adaptation. The methods identified include use of different crop varieties, tree planting, soil conservation, early and late planting, and irrigation. Results from the discrete choice model employed indicate that the level of education, gender, age, and wealth of the head of household; access to extension and credit; information on climate, social capital, agroecological settings, and temperature all influence farmers' choices. The main barriers include lack of information on adaptation methods and financial constraints. Moreover, the analysis reveals that age of the household head, wealth, information on climate change, social capital, and agroecological settings have significant effects on farmers' perceptions of climate change." from authors' abstract

"Ethiopia's agricultural sector, which is dominated by smallscale, mixed crop, and livestock farming, is the mainstay of the country's economy. It constitutes more than half the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), generates more than 85 percent of the foreign exchange earnings, and employs about 80 percent of the population. Ethiopia's dependence on agriculture makes the country particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change on crop and livestock production. This brief is based on a paper that analyzes the vulnerability of Ethiopian farmers to climate change by creating a vulnerability index and comparing vulnerability indicators across regions. A regional vulnerability index can assist in identifying the areas of Ethiopia that are most vulnerable to climate change and guide policymakers in determining where investments in adaptation may be most effective in reducing the future adverse effects of climate change." from text

Human activities such as fossil fuel burning and deforestation have significantly increased the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) leading to global climate change. Global climate change and its associated weather extremes pose considerable challenges worldwide, and mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change is a high priority for the international community. To reduce global emissions and curb the threat of climate change, many countries are participating in carbon trading. Carbon trading includes allowance-based agreements that impose national caps on emissions and allow participating countries to engage in emission trading as well as project-based transactions (for example, through the CDM or Clean Development Mechanism). The CDM allows industrialized countries with greenhouse gas reduction commitments to invest in emission-reducing projects in developing countries as an alternative to generally more costly emission reductions in their own countries. Funds made available by the CDM for carbon offsets provide an opportunity for cash-strapped developing countries to fund much needed adaptation measures. The potential annual value stream for Sub-Saharan Africa from mitigating GHG emissions is estimated to be US$4.8 billion at carbon prices of US$0–20/tCO2e. Moreover, agricultural mitigation measures, including soil and water conservation and agroforestry practices, also enhance ecosystem functioning, providing resilience against droughts, pests, and climate-related shocks. Yet the potential for Africa to contribute to global reductions in GHG emissions is quite substantial. Estimates suggest Africa could potentially contribute to GHG reductions of 265 MtCO2e (million tons of carbon dioxide or equivalent) per year at carbon prices of up to US$20 through agricultural measures and 1,925 MtCO2e/yr at carbon prices of up to US$100/tCO2e by 2030 through changes in the forestry sector. These amounts constitute 17 and 14 percent, respectively, of the global total potential for mitigation in these sectors. However, countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are marginalized in global carbon markets. Sub-Saharan Africa’s share of the CDM market is nine times smaller than its global share of GHG emissions, including emissions from land use and land-use change. This brief is based on a paper that examines Sub-Saharan Africa’s current involvement in carbon markets, potential for GHG emission reductions, constraints to further participation in carbon markets, and opportunities for expanding Sub-Saharan Africa’s market share.

"This paper presents an empirical analysis of the impact of climate change on food production in a typical low-income developing country. Furthermore, it provides an estimation of the determinants of adaptation to climate change and the implications of these strategies on farm productivity. The analysis relies on primary data from 1,000 farms producing cereal crops in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Based on monthly collected meteorological station data, the thin plate spline method of spatial interpolation was used to interpolate the specific rainfall and temperature values of each household. The rainfall data were disaggregated at the seasonal level. We found that climate change and climate change adaptations have significant impact on farm productivity. Extension services (both formal and farmer to farmer), as well as access to credit and information on future climate changes, affect adaptation positively and significantly. Farm households with larger access to social capital are more likely to adopt yield-related adaptation strategies." from authors' abstract

"This study analyzes the vulnerability of Ethiopian farmers to climate change based on the integrated vulnerability assessment approach using vulnerability indicators. The vulnerability indicators consist of the different socioeconomic and biophysical attributes of Ethiopia's seven agriculture-based regional states. The different socioeconomic and biophysical indicators of each region collected have been classified into three classes, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC 2001) definition of vulnerability, which consists of adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure. The results indicate that the relatively least-developed, semiarid, and arid regions—namely, Afar and Somali—are highly vulnerable to climate change. The Oromia region—a wide region characterized both by areas of good agricultural production in the highlands and midlands and by recurrent droughts, especially in the lowlands—is also vulnerable. The Tigray region, which is characterized by recurrent drought, is also vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change in comparison with the other regions. Thus, investing in the development of the relatively underdeveloped regions of Somali and Afar, irrigation for regions with high potential, early warning systems to help farmers better cope in times of drought, and production of drought-tolerant varieties of crops and species of livestock can all reduce the vulnerability of Ethiopian farmers to climate change." from authors' abstract

Over the coming decades, global change will have an impact on food and water security in significant and highly uncertain ways, and there are strong indications that developing countries will bear the brunt of the adverse consequences, particularly from climate change. This is largely because poverty levels are high, and developing-country capacity to adapt to global change is weak. Furthermore, the rural populations of developing countries—for whom agricultural production is the primary source of direct and indirect employment and income—will be most affected due agriculture’s vulnerability to global change processes. The agricultural sector is the largest consumer of water resources, and variability in water supply has a major influence on health and welfare in poor areas. With water scarcity and extreme weather events expected to increase under climate change, water security could decline significantly in rural areas. Consequently, it is important to understand the impacts of global change (in terms of climate, demography, technology, and so on) on agriculture and natural resources in developing countries and to develop adaptive capacity to respond to these impacts. Moreover, there is a need to develop informed and effective adaptation measures and investment options that can be taken now to alleviate adverse impacts of global change in the future.

"This paper investigates the impact of climate variability on maize yield in the Limpopo Basin of South Africa using the Generalized Maximum Entropy (GME) estimator and Maximum Entropy Leuven Estimator (MELE). Precipitation and temperature were used as proxies for climate variability, which were combined with traditional inputs variables (i.e., labor, fertilizer, seed, and irrigation). We found that the MELE fits the data better than the GME. In addition, increased precipitation, increased temperature, and irrigation have a positive impact on yield. Furthermore, results of the MELE show that the impact of precipitation on maize yield is stronger than that of temperature, meaning that the impact of climate variability on maize yield could be negative if the change increases temperature but reduces precipitation at the same rate and simultaneously. Moreover, the impact of irrigation on yield is positive but with a lower elasticity coefficient than that of precipitation, which supposes that irrigation may only partially mitigate the impact of reduced precipitation on yield. " from authors' abstract

The Mekong River is the dominant geo-hydrological structure in mainland Southeast Asia, originating in China and flowing through or bordering Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. Whereas water resources in the wet season are more than adequate to fulfill basin needs, there are regional water shortages during the dry season, when only 1-2% of the annual flow reaches the Delta. Recent rapid agricultural and economic development in the basin has led to increasing competition among the riparian countries for Mekong waters. This development calls for a structured approach to the management of the basin, including efficient, equitable, and environmentally sustainable water allocation mechanisms that support the socioeconomic development in the region. Institutional mechanisms for Mekong cooperation among the riparians in the lower basin have been in place since 1957, and were revived in 1995. However, comprehensive water allocation mechanisms for the (lower) basin have not been developed to date. In this study, multi-country and intersectoral analyses of water allocation and use are carried out for the Mekong River Basin with the objective to determine tradeoffs and complementarities in water usage and strategies for the efficient allocation of water resources. An aggregate economic-hydrologic model for the basin is developed that allows for the analysis of water allocation and use under alternative policy scenarios. Results from the analytical framework indicate that although competition for Mekong water still appears to be very low, there are substantial tradeoffs between instream and off-stream water uses. An analysis of alternative water allocation mechanisms shows that to achieve both equitable and large benefits from water uses across countries and sectors, the ideal strategy would be to strive for optimal basin water use benefits and then to redistribute these benefits instead of the water resource. The development of such an integrated framework of analysis can be a critical first step to overcome some of the obstacles to effective management and joint cooperation in the Mekong River Basin. It could also facilitate the upcoming negotiations of water allocation rules in the lower basin and thus contribute to the reasonable and equitable utilization of Mekong River waters, as envisioned in the 1995 Mekong Agreement.

With growing water scarcity and increasing competition across water-using sectors, the need for water savings and more efficient water use has increased in importance in water resources management. Improvement in the physical efficiency of water use is related to water conservation through increasing the fraction of water beneficially used over water applied, while enhancing economic efficiency is a broader concept seeking the highest economic value of water use through both physical and managerial measures. Physical and economic efficiency measures are both useful indicators for water management at the irrigation system and river basin level. However, the relationship between physical efficiency and economic efficiency is not always clear and the values of these measures may indicate different directions for water policy and investments in irrigation. Open research questions include, for example: does enhancement of physical water use efficiency always lead to improved economic water use efficiency? How does the change in responsiveness of water allocation and irrigation technology to economic incentives affect physical and economic irrigation efficiency? What is the impact on physical and economic efficiency of various structural and nonstructural improvements? To explore these issues, an integrated economic-hydrologic river basin model is applied to the Maipo River Basin in Chile. A series of modeling scenarios are defined and policy implications from physical and economic efficiencies for basin-wide irrigation water management are analyzed.

La gran importancia de las raices y tuberculos como fuente de ingresos para los agricultores pobres y como fuente de alimento para la poblacion de escasos recursos, tanto rural como urbana, es muchas veces ignorada en el debate sobre el mejoramiento de la seguridad alimentaria y la erradicacion de la pobreza en los paises en desarrollo. Es de esperarse que los analisis del presente informe, preparados en forma conjunta por el Centro Internacional de la Papa (CIP) y el Instituto Internacional de Investigaciones sobre Politicas Alimentarias (IFPRI), ayudaran a que estos cultivos sean considerados apropiadamente en las deliberaciones futuras sobre el sistema global de alimentos a nivel nacional e internacional, locual aumentaria los esfuerzos para asegurar la seguridad alimentaria e ingresos para todos los habitantes del mundo... Gregory J.Scott, Mark W.Rosegrant, y Claudia Ringler han sintetizado una cantidad significativa de datos sobre raices y tuberculos, en un esfuerzo para brindar una vision mas clara de su pasado, su presente y su papel futuro en los sistemas de alimentos de los paises en desarrollo. Resulta de vital importancia comprender como han cambiado y como cambiaran en el futuro la produccion y el uso de estos productos primarios a lo largo del tiempo, debido justamente a su contribucion en las dietas y en las actividades generadoras de ingresos de la poblacion pobre, rural y urbana en Asia, Africa y America Latina.

Latin America and the Caribbean are relatively well endowed with water resources. However, population growth and rapid urbanization are putting considerable pressure on water available for irrigation. Local and regional water scarcity problems are exacerbated by severe water quality problems; and wastewater is frequently used for irrigation. Moreover, prospects for new investments into irrigation development appear limited. This paper examines the factors underlying irrigation development in Latin America and the Caribbean, reviews the water supply situation, and describes trends in water demand and irrigated agriculture. The overall water management in the region is assessed, and recent trends in investments in the water sector, with a focus on large-scale irrigation systems, are analyzed. The paper concludes that in this context of accelerating demand and declining irrigation investments, new water development is not the primary solution to water resource challenges in the region. Much greater attention is needed on water policy and management reform to improve the efficiency and equity of irrigation and water supply systems.

"...The assessment of past trends, future prospects, and policy options reported here stems from the tradition of joint studies of roots and tubers in developing countries by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). This report builds on that previous collaboration and represents the first intercenter effort to produce future projections of demand and supply for these crops and represents the empirical foundation of a broader effort aimed at documenting not just trends and projections but also describing research activities and organizations with the overall objective of providing a vision for research on roots and tubers in the CGIAR. Gregory J. Scott, Mark W. Rosegrant, and Claudia Ringler have synthesized a significant amount of data and information on roots and tubers in order to provide a clearer vision of their past, present,a nd future roles in the food systems of developing countries. How the production and use of these commodities have changed and will continue to change over time are all the more important to understand because of the contribution they make to the diets and income-generating activities of the rural and urban poor in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. This paper provides a fuller understanding of the prospects of roots and tubers for food, feed, and other uses in developing countries in the decades ahead. " (excerpted from Forward by Per Pinstrup-Andersen and Hubert Zandstra)

The major roots and tubers—cassava, potato, sweet potato, and yam—play a significant role in the global food system.They contribute to the energy and nutrition requirements of more than 2 billion people in developing countries and will continue to do so over the next two decades. They are produced and consumed by many of the world's poorest and most food-insecure house holds. Roots and tubers also constitute an important source of employment and in come in rural, and often marginal, areas, and for women. The authors look at current trends in use and production and at projections to the year 2020. Increased production and use of roots and tubers in developing countries have drawn attention to their potential benefits and risks, which this brief describes. The authors conclude with policy recommendations.