1. Recency-Weighted Statistical Modeling Approach to Attribute Illnesses Caused by 4 Pathogens to Food Sources Using Outbreak Data, United States
- Author
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Joanna S. Zablotsky Kufel, LaTonia C Richardson, Neal J. Golden, Michael C. Bazaco, R. Michael Hoekstra, Beverly J Wolpert, Patricia M. Griffin, Michael B. Batz, Susan K Schmitt, Dana Cole, Stuart J. Chirtel, Weidong Gu, and Cary Chen Parker
- Subjects
Microbiology (medical) ,Salmonella ,analysis of variance ,Epidemiology ,Listeria ,030231 tropical medicine ,lcsh:Medicine ,Campylobacteriosis ,medicine.disease_cause ,lcsh:Infectious and parasitic diseases ,Disease Outbreaks ,Foodborne Diseases ,03 medical and health sciences ,Escherichia coli 0157 ,models ,0302 clinical medicine ,Listeria monocytogenes ,Environmental health ,Campylobacter Infections ,medicine ,Animals ,risk factors ,lcsh:RC109-216 ,030212 general & internal medicine ,biology ,business.industry ,Campylobacter ,Research ,lcsh:R ,Outbreak ,food and beverages ,biology.organism_classification ,medicine.disease ,Food safety ,United States ,Gastroenteritis ,food safety ,Infectious Diseases ,Salmonella enterica ,Food Microbiology ,Recency-Weighted Statistical Modeling Approach to Attribute Illnesses Caused by 4 Pathogens to Food Sources Using Outbreak Data, United States ,Cattle ,business ,statistical - Abstract
Foodborne illness source attribution is foundational to a risk-based food safety system. We describe a method for attributing US foodborne illnesses caused by nontyphoidal Salmonella enterica, Escherichia coli O157, Listeria monocytogenes, and Campylobacter to 17 food categories using statistical modeling of outbreak data. This method adjusts for epidemiologic factors associated with outbreak size, down-weights older outbreaks, and estimates credibility intervals. On the basis of 952 reported outbreaks and 32,802 illnesses during 1998–2012, we attribute 77% of foodborne Salmonella illnesses to 7 food categories (seeded vegetables, eggs, chicken, other produce, pork, beef, and fruits), 82% of E. coli O157 illnesses to beef and vegetable row crops, 81% of L. monocytogenes illnesses to fruits and dairy, and 74% of Campylobacter illnesses to dairy and chicken. However, because Campylobacter outbreaks probably overrepresent dairy as a source of nonoutbreak campylobacteriosis, we caution against using these Campylobacter attribution estimates without further adjustment.
- Published
- 2020