Harsha Blumer, D. R. Madison, Ryan S. Lynch, Paul Demorest, Deborah C. Good, Paul R. Brook, Megan L. Jones, Renée Spiewak, Paul T. Baker, Nathan Garver-Daniels, Jeffrey S. Hazboun, Luke Zoltan Kelley, A. Miguel Holgado, Scott M. Ransom, Caitlin A. Witt, Neil J. Cornish, Nima Laal, Joseph Simon, Timothy T. Pennucci, Michele Vallisneri, Jing Luo, Siyuan Chen, Fronefield Crawford, Zaven Arzoumanian, Ross J. Jennings, Chiara M. F. Mingarelli, Joey Shapiro Key, Elizabeth C. Ferrara, Shami Chatterjee, Cherry Ng, Adam Brazier, Jerry P. Sun, Kevin Stovall, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, Sarah J. Vigeland, Xavier Siemens, James M. Cordes, William Fiore, Timothy Dolch, Joseph K. Swiggum, Peter A. Gentile, H. Thankful Cromartie, Brent J. Shapiro-Albert, Jacob E. Turner, Paul S. Ray, B. Bécsy, David J. Nice, David L. Kaplan, T. Joseph W. Lazio, Ingrid H. Stairs, K. Islo, Nihan Pol, Duncan R. Lorimer, Justin A. Ellis, Maura McLaughlin, Andrew R. Kaiser, Michael T. Lam, Megan E. DeCesar, Emmanuel Fonseca, Stephen Taylor, Daniel R. Stinebring, Unité Scientifique de la Station de Nançay (USN), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers en région Centre (OSUC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université d'Orléans (UO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université d'Orléans (UO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université d'Orléans (UO), Franche-Comté Électronique Mécanique, Thermique et Optique - Sciences et Technologies (UMR 6174) (FEMTO-ST), Université de Technologie de Belfort-Montbeliard (UTBM)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Mécanique et des Microtechniques (ENSMM)-Université de Franche-Comté (UFC), Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC)-Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de Physique et Chimie de l'Environnement et de l'Espace (LPC2E), Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers en région Centre (OSUC), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université d'Orléans (UO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National d’Études Spatiales [Paris] (CNES), NANOGrav, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université d'Orléans (UO)-Observatoire de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université d'Orléans (UO)-Observatoire de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université d'Orléans (UO), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National d’Études Spatiales [Paris] (CNES)
We search for an isotropic stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) in the $12.5$-year pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. Our analysis finds strong evidence of a stochastic process, modeled as a power-law, with common amplitude and spectral slope across pulsars. The Bayesian posterior of the amplitude for an $f^{-2/3}$ power-law spectrum, expressed as the characteristic GW strain, has median $1.92 \times 10^{-15}$ and $5\%$--$95\%$ quantiles of $1.37$--$2.67 \times 10^{-15}$ at a reference frequency of $f_\mathrm{yr} = 1 ~\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$. The Bayes factor in favor of the common-spectrum process versus independent red-noise processes in each pulsar exceeds $10,000$. However, we find no statistically significant evidence that this process has quadrupolar spatial correlations, which we would consider necessary to claim a GWB detection consistent with general relativity. We find that the process has neither monopolar nor dipolar correlations, which may arise from, for example, reference clock or solar system ephemeris systematics, respectively. The amplitude posterior has significant support above previously reported upper limits; we explain this in terms of the Bayesian priors assumed for intrinsic pulsar red noise. We examine potential implications for the supermassive black hole binary population under the hypothesis that the signal is indeed astrophysical in nature., Comment: 25 pages, 14 figures, 5 tables, 3 appendices. Published in The Astrophysical Journal Letters. Please send any comments/questions to Joseph Simon (joe.simon@nanograv.org). Jupyter notebook tutorials and some MCMC chain files are available at https://github.com/nanograv/12p5yr_stochastic_analysis