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The global health security (GHS) Index assesses countries’ level of preparedness to health risks. However, there is no evidence on how and whether the effects of health systems building blocks and socioeconomic indicators on the level of preparedness differ for low and high prepared countries. The aim of this study was to examine the contributions of health systems building blocks and socioeconomic indicators to show differences in the level of preparedness to health risks. The study also aimed to examine trends in the level of preparedness and the World Health Organization (WHO) regional differences before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. We used the 2021 GHS index report data and employed quantile regression, log-linear, double-logarithmic, and time-fixed effects models. As robustness checks, these functional form specifications corroborated with one another, and interval validity tests confirmed. The results show that increases in effective governance, supply chain capacity in terms of medicines and technologies, and health financing had positive effects on countries’ level of preparedness to health risks. These effects were considerably larger for countries with higher levels of preparedness to health risks. The positive gradient trends signaled a sense of capacity on the part of countries with higher global health security. However, the health workforce including doctors, and health services including hospital beds, were not statistically significant in explaining variations in countries’ level of preparedness. While economic factors had positive effects on the level of preparedness to health risks, their impacts across the distribution of countries’ level of preparedness to health risks were mixed. The effects of Social Development Goals (SDGs) were greater for countries with higher levels of preparedness to health risks. The effect of the Human Development Index (HDI) was greatest for countries whose overall GHS index lies at the midpoint of the distribution of countries’ level of preparedness. High-income levels were associated with a negative effect on the level of preparedness, especially if countries were in the lower quantiles across the distributions of preparedness. Relative to poor countries, middle- and high-income groups had lower levels of preparedness to health risks, an indication of a sense of complacency. We find the pandemic period (year 2021) was associated with a decrease in the level of preparedness to health risks in comparison to the pre-pandemic period. There were significant WHO regional differences. Apart from the Eastern Mediterranean, the rest of the regions were more prepared to health risks compared to Africa. There was a negative trend in the level of preparedness to health risks from 2019 to 2021 although regional differences in changes over time were not statistically significant. In conclusion, attempts to strengthen countries’ level of preparedness to health shocks should be more focused on enhancing essentials such as supply chain capacity in terms of medicines and technologies; health financing, and communication infrastructure. Countries should also strengthen their already existing health workforce and health services. Together, strengthening these health systems essentials will be beneficial to less prepared countries where their impact we find to be weaker. Similarly, boosting SDGs, particularly health-related sub-scales, will be helpful to less prepared countries. Moreover, there is a need to curb complacency in preparedness to health risks during pandemics by high-income countries. The negative trend in the level of preparedness to health risks would suggest that there is a need for better preparedness during pandemics by conflating national health with global health risks. This will ensure the imperative of having a synergistic response to global health risks, which is understood by and communicated to all countries and regions.

Low tuberculosis (TB) detection and conflict and fragility have overburdened Somalia. This study estimated economic loss associated with TB deaths among persons aged14 years.Using epidemiologic and economic data, we calculated the cost based on the framework of the World Health Organization guide of identifying the economic consequences of disease and injury. Baseline loss is the product of years of life lost, non-health expenditure, and number of deaths. Adjusting for conflict and fragility conditions and growth of non-health expenditure, we discounted the loss at 3% rate. We conducted a sensitivity analysis of epidemiologic and economic factors.In 2017 values, the 9180 reported deaths result in a loss of US$ 44.77 million, a US$ 4877 per death over the discounted years. Conflict conditions would increase the loss by 5.3%, while simultaneous adjustment for conflict and attunement to growth of non-health expenditure would increase the burden by 54% to US$ 67.28 million. Male fatalities account for 59% of the burden. The baseline result is robust to input variations, although sensitivity analysis suggests conflict and fragility conditions account for greater uncertainty of the loss.Stakeholders in the healthcare system should minimise the sizeable economic loss by taking measures to enhance surveillance of TB and security.

PURPOSE The social impact of cancer on patients and their family is well known. Yet, unlike with physical and financial toxicities, no validated tools are available to measure this impact. This study aimed at developing, validating, and implementing a novel social toxicity assessment tool for patients with cancer diagnosis (STAT-C). METHODS Questions were generated through multiple steps including focus groups of patients, their families, and oncology care professionals. These steps along with relevant literature resulted in the development of an initial 20-item questionnaire. Content validity and relevance of the tool were assessed using Content Validity Index for individual items and Content Validity Index for the entire scale. Following expert examination, the constructed STAT-C tool consisted of 14 items grouped into three domains—social relations, social activities, and economic impact. Based on the total possible score for the survey in 150 patients for all the items, three levels of a socioeconomic toxicity were determined—severe social toxicity, mild social toxicity, and no social toxicity. RESULTS The 14 items were marked as relevant, and the Content Validity Index for individual items ranged between 0.80 and 1.00. An overall average Content Validity Index for the entire scale of 0.87 showed high content validity of the constructed tool. Exploratory factor analysis revealed retention of 13 items of the constructed STAT-C Tool, which loaded across three factors that mapped groupings into measures of social relations, social activities, and economic impact domains. CONCLUSION Our study revealed that STAT-C is a valid, reliable tool, and well captures and measures unique and pertinent social toxicity constructs for Arabic-speaking patients. The tool should enable oncology professionals to deliver better patient-centered care as a component of a comprehensive approach.

Background Incidence of cancer in Saudi Arabia has increased for the last two decades, ratcheting up to global levels. Yet, there is a dearth of research on the burden of lung cancer. This study examined the association between new cases of lung cancer and factors such as gender, age, and year of diagnosis; and forecast new cases and extrapolated future economic burden to 2030. Methods This a national-level cohort study that utilized the Saudi Cancer Registry data from 1999 to 2013. Multivariate regression was used; new lung cancer cases forecast and economic burden extrapolated to 20130. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the impact of a range of epidemiologic and economic factors on the economic burden. Results Of the 166,497 new cancer cases (1999-2013), 3.8% was lung cancer. Males and Saudis had over threefold higher cases compared with females and non-Saudis, respectively. While the age group ≥65 years had 1.14 times or 14% increase in new cases, under-30 years had 97.2% fewer cases compared with age group 45-59. Compared with 1999, the period 2011-2013 had a 106% average increase. The years 2002-2010 registered an average 50% rise in new cases compared to 1999. New cases would rise to 1058 in 2030, an upsurge of 87% from 2013. The future economic burden was estimated at $2.49 billion in 2015 value, of which $520 million was attributable to care management and $1.97 billion in lost productivity. The economic burden for the period 2015-2030 will be $50.16 billion. The present value of this burden in 2015 values will be $34.60 billion, of which 21% will be attributable to care management. Estimates were robust to uncertainty, but the aged-standardized rate and 5-year survival rate would account for much of the variability compared with the economic factors. Conclusion Findings reveal an upsurge of lung cancer burden in incidence and potential economic burden, which may inform cancer control measures.

Background HIV stigma and the resultant fear of being identified as HIV-positive can compromise the effectiveness of HIV programs by undermining early diagnosis and antiretroviral treatment initiation and adherence of people living with HIV (PLHIV). In the wake of the longstanding conflict in the country, little is known about the life experiences of PLHIV in Somalia. Methods A qualitative study using unstructured interviews was conducted in Somalia from September to December 2017. A convenience sampling approach was used to recruit 13 participants, including 10 persons who live with HIV and three senior officials who work for the HIV program at the Ministry of Health. Data were analyzed using a thematic analysis. Results Our findings show that PLHIV are alienated and prefer to isolate themselves due to widespread stigma subjected to them by their family members, society, employers, and health providers, which continue to undermine the scale-up of testing and treatment of PLHIV in Somalia. Consequently, they are reluctant to seek voluntary diagnosis and treatment of HIV. They often come to know about their status when their partners are found HIV positive, they are tested for other clinical purposes, or when an individual's health deteriorates, and all other means fail to work in improving his/her situation. The study also pointed out a shortage of facilities that provide HIV diagnosis, counseling and treatment in Somalia. Conclusion Addressing stigma and discrimination subjected to PLHIV are critical to a successful HIV response in Somalia. To successfully address stigma, HIV programs need evidence on effective interventions at individual, community, and societal levels in order to strategically incorporate stigma and discrimination reduction into national HIV programs.

Background The use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) is common among cancer patients and it may reflect the individual and societal beliefs on cancer therapy. Our study aimed to evaluate the trends of CAM use among patients with cancer between 2006 and 2018. Methods We included 2 Cohorts of patients with cancer who were recruited for Cohort 1 between 2006 and 2008 and for Cohort 2 between 2016 and 2018. The study is a cross-sectional study obtaining demographic and clinical information and inquiring about the types of CAM used, the reasons to use them and the perceived benefits. We compared the changes in the patterns of CAM use and other variables between the two cohorts. Results A total of 1416 patients were included in the study, with 464 patients in Cohort 1 and 952 patients in Cohort 2. Patients in Cohort 2 used less CAM (78.9%) than Cohort 1 (96.8%). Cohort 1 was more likely to use CAM to treat cancer compared to Cohort 2 (84.4% vs. 73%, respectively, p p Conclusion There is a significant change in CAM use among cancer patients over the decade, which reflects major societal and cultural changes in this population. Further studies and interventions are needed to improve the disclosure to physicians and to improve other aspects of care to these patients.

Background As increasing the number of organ donations presents a global challenge, Saudi Arabia is no different. Intensivists can play a major role in maximizing the organ donation process and minimize the challenges. The purpose of this study was to investigate Saudi pediatric intensivists’ comfort and importance levels of organ donation competencies. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional survey whose sampling frame included 100 pediatric intensivists. The pediatrician intensivists were identified through an updated list provided by the Saudi Critical Care Society. We assessed 14 competencies categorized into four domains: the general donation, donation after brain death (DBD), neurological determination of death, and medicolegal, religious, and ethical domains. Then we investigated the association between these competencies and physicians’ characteristics. Results With a response rate of 76%, we found that 40–60% of the surveyed pediatric intensivists rated their comfort in 6 out of 14 competencies as high or very high. There was a statistically significant gap in the intensivists’ rating of 10 competencies (i.e., high importance but low comfort levels). Ordinal regression showed that comfort levels with the general donation, neurological determination of death, and medicolegal, religious, and ethical domains were higher in intensivists who were frequently involved with DBD than those who had never been exposed. Conclusions Pediatric intensivists expressed low comfort levels to organ donation competencies that are essential for maximizing donation rates. Adapting mandatory comprehensive donation education programs and dedicated physician specialists may be beneficial in critical care units aiming to increase donation rates.

Background As increasing the number of organ donations presents a global challenge, and Saudi Arabia is no different, Intensivists can play a major role in the process. The purpose of this study was to investigate Saudi pediatric intensivists’ perception of their comfort and the importance of organ donation competencies. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional survey whose sampling frame included 100 pediatric intensivists. We assessed 14 competencies categorized into four domains: the general donation, donation after brain death (DBD), neurological determination of death, and medicolegal, religious, and ethical domains. Then we investigated the association between these competencies and physicians’ characteristics. Results With a response rate of 76%, we found that 40–60% of the surveyed pediatric intensivists rated their comfort in 6 out of 14 competencies as high or very high. There was a statistically significant gap in the intensivists’ perception of 10 competencies (i.e., high importance but low comfort levels). Ordinal regression showed that comfort levels with the general donation, neurological determination of death, and medicolegal, religious, and ethical domains were higher in intensivists who were frequently involved with DBD than those who had never been exposed. Conclusions Pediatric intensivists expressed low comfort levels with organ donation competencies. The pediatric intensive care community should invest in educational opportunities in the country to boost the low levels of organ donation.

BackgroundInjury poses a major threat to health and longevity in adults aged 50 years or older. The increased life expectancy in the Eastern Mediterranean region warrants a further understanding of the ageing population's inevitable changing health demands and challenges. We aimed to examine injury-related morbidity and mortality among adults aged 50 years or older in 22 Eastern Mediterranean countries. MethodsDrawing on data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we categorised the population into adults aged 50–69 years and adults aged 70 years and older. We examined estimates for transport injuries, self-harm injuries, and unintentional injuries for both age groups, with sex differences reported, and analysed the percentage changes from 1990 to 2019. We reported injury-related mortality rates and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index were used to better understand the association of socioeconomic factors and health-care system performance, respectively, with injuries and health status in older people. Healthy life expectancy (HALE) was compared with injury-related deaths and DALYs and to the SDI and HAQ Index to understand the effect of injuries on healthy ageing. Finally, risk factors for injury deaths between 1990 and 2019 were assessed. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) are given for all estimates. FindingsEstimated injury mortality rates in the Eastern Mediterranean region exceeded the global rates in 2019, with higher injury mortality rates in males than in females for both age groups. Transport injuries were the leading cause of deaths in adults aged 50–69 years (43·0 [95% UI 31·0–51·8] per 100 000 population) and in adults aged 70 years or older (66·2 [52·5–75·5] per 100 000 population), closely followed by conflict and terrorism for both age groups (10·2 [9·3–11·3] deaths per 100 000 population for 50–69 years and 45·7 [41·5–50·3] deaths per 100 000 population for ≥70 years). The highest annual percentage change in mortality rates due to injury was observed in Afghanistan among people aged 70 years or older (400·4% increase; mortality rate 1109·7 [1017·7–1214·7] per 100 000 population). The leading cause of DALYs was transport injuries for people aged 50–69 years (1798·8 [1394·1–2116·0] per 100 000 population) and unintentional injuries for those aged 70 years or older (2013·2 [1682·2–2408·7] per 100 000 population). The estimates for HALE at 50 years and at 70 years in the Eastern Mediterranean region were lower than global estimates. Eastern Mediterranean countries with the lowest SDIs and HAQ Index values had high prevalence of injury DALYs and ranked the lowest for HALE at 50 years of age and HALE at 70 years. The leading injury mortality risk factors were occupational exposure in people aged 50–69 years and low bone mineral density in those aged 70 years or older. InterpretationInjuries still pose a real threat to people aged 50 years or older living in the Eastern Mediterranean region, mainly due to transport and violence-related injuries. Dedicated efforts should be implemented to devise injury prevention strategies that are appropriate for older adults and cost-effective injury programmes tailored to the needs and resources of local health-care systems, and to curtail injury-associated risk and promote healthy ageing. FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation. We acknowledge the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation for funding this study.

This study estimated whether continued programming of a highly specialized four-year dentistry residency training in Saudi Arabia was cost-beneficial. We utilized a purposive sampling to administer a survey to trainees in major cities. Additionally, we used publically available market information about general practitioners. We employed Benefit-Cost Analysis accounting approach as a conceptual framework. Using general practitioners as the base category, we grouped overall social analytical perspectives into resident trainees and rest of society. The residency program was cost-beneficial to trainees, realizing an estimated return of SR 4.07 per SR 1 invested. The overall societal return was SR 0.98 per SR 1 invested, slightly shy of a bang for the buck, in part because the public sector largely runs the training. Benefits included increased earnings and enhanced restorative dentistry skills accruing to trainees; increased charitable contributions and programming-related payments accruing to programs and the public; and practice-related payments accruing to governmental, professional, and insurance agencies. Rest of society, notably government underwrote much of the cost of programming. A sensitivity analysis revealed the results were robust to uncertainties in the data and estimation. Our findings offer evidence to evaluate whether continued residency training is cost-beneficial to trainees and potentially to overall society.

151 Background: The objective of this study was to describe the social and financial experience of cancer patients throughout the continuum of their disease. Methods: A descriptive phenomenological qualitative study was conducted in the Oncology Department in King Abdulaziz Medical City in Saudi Arabia. Four focus groups, including 15 cancer patients (9 women and 6 men) and 11 care givers (5 females and 6 males), and face-to-face interviews among 29 healthcare workers including physicians, nurses, social workers, and health educators were conducted. All discussions were transcribed verbatim and entered into NVIVO software and themes were extracted and examined. Results: Focus group discussions and interviews revealed a range of social and financial themes such as experiencing fear of spousal abandonment, concerns of becoming a social and financial burden to the family, poor physical appearance, and hair loss for females. Experiencing depression, social isolation, fear of infertility, and fear of job loss for both genders. Males were mostly affected by facial hair loss and sexual dysfunction. An emerging theme regarding the elderly patient was neglect by family members and isolation from society with the intention of protecting them. Acceptability of disease and submission as an act of religiosity was a general positive feeling. Conclusions: This descriptive phenomenological qualitative study characterized the significant social and financial toxicities among patients with cancer diagnosis in Saudi Arabia. Such phenomena and context are expected to enable a deeper understanding of oncology professionals’ experiences in order to better deliver patient-centered care as a component of a holistic approach.

Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are the second leading cause of death in Saudi Arabia. Their economic burden is significant but poorly quantified, as limited literature exists locally. We aim to estimate the impact of RTIs on healthcare costs.We included all patients from the hospital's trauma registry for the year 2017 (n = 381). Due to the availability of data, the analysis focused only on direct medical costs incurred during the hospitalization period. We computed the components of hospitalization costs and evaluated the association between patient and RTI characteristics and total hospitalization costs (the average and median) using quantile and log-linear regression techniques respectively.Patients were relatively young with an average age of 31 years (SD ± 14.6). Overall, patients treated for RTIs cost the hospital around 77,657 Saudi Riyal (SAR) on average. Pedestrian injuries incurred the highest costs. Motor vehicle injuries accounted for the highest procedure-related costs (SAR 19,537). The quantile regressions results suggest that Glasgow coma scale (GCS), admission to intensive care unit (ICU), and hospital length of stay were significantly associated with an increase in hospitalization cost. Hospital home disposition was however, associated with a decrease in cost. One additional day of stay in the hospital increases total hospitalization cost by SAR 3,508. Additionally, the log-linear showed injury severity score (ISS 16) was associated with a 20% decrease in the geometric mean of the hospitalization costs (p 0.001).This study underlines the economic burden of RTIs in addition to their impact on population health. The findings may be used to inform policymakers, researchers, and the public about the increasing burden of traffic crashes in the Kingdom. Public health interventions are warranted to reduce the severity and frequency of RTIs in order to improve traffic safety and reduce associated healthcare costs.

Minimizing the gap and ensuring agreement between patients’ perceptions and expectations is an indication of a better quality of hospital services. This study aimed to examine the agreement between patients’ perceptions and expectations of the quality of hospital services. A cross-sectional design was adopted, and quantitative methods were employed for data collection. The SERVAQUAL tool was used. The sample size was 415 participants. This study was conducted in Jordanian teaching hospitals. The study population was patients who used outpatient clinics in these hospitals. The study found that there is very low agreement between patients’ expectation and their perceptions. Overall, the perceived service quality was significantly lower than the expected service quality across all of the dimensions used to measure the service quality gap (reliability, responsiveness, assurance, empathy, and tangibles). The results suggest regional variation, where patients who sought care at hospitals in Amman have a four-fold higher perception of the quality of services than patients who visited Irbid hospitals. Also, patients who are more highly educated (Diploma, Bachelor, or Higher Studies) have a higher perception than patients who have less than secondary education. Age and gender were found to have no significant association with patients’ perceptions. The findings of this study suggest that there is a gap between patients’ perceptions and expectations. Thus, there is a need to close this gap by improving patient satisfaction with the quality of services.

e24115 Background: The social impact of cancer on patients and their family is well known. Yet, unlike with physical and financial toxicities, no validated tools are available to measure this impact. This study aimed at developing, validating, and implementing a novel social toxicity assessment tool for patients with cancer diagnosis (STAT-C). Methods: Questions were generated through multiple steps including focus groups of patients, their families, and oncology care professionals. Content validity, internal consistency, face validity and factor analysis were conducted. The questionnaire (in Arabic language) was administered to 150 patients with cancer served at King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi, Arabia. Results: STAT-C contains 14 items covering three domains: Social Relations domain (eight questions) related to relationship with parents, spouse, children, siblings, friends, members of congregation, and caregiver; Social Activities domain (two questions) measures participation in social events and leisure; and Economic Impact domain (four questions) related to standard of living, finances, and loss of job. The total possible score for each patient for the 14 items in the tool varied between -28 and +28 (Range = 56). Dividing the range by three levels of a socioeconomic toxicity yielded the length of each level, which effectively defined the categories as- Severe social toxicity (SST score: -28 to -9.3), mild social toxicity (MST: -9.2 to 9.5) and no social toxicity (NST: 9.6 to 28). Conclusions: Our study revealed that STAT-C is a valid and reliable tool in assessing the social toxicity of cancer in Arabic-speaking patients. Validating the tool in an English-speaking population is planned. The tool should enable oncology professionals to deliver better patient-centered care as a component of a holistic approach.

e19361 Background: This study computed and analyzed aggregate and sub-aggregate healthcare costs of lung cancer care by demographic profiles, resource utilization, clinical conditions, and target therapy. Methods: This is a retrospective chart-review and descriptive analysis of resource use and direct medical cost for lung cancer care had at the Oncology Department, King Abdulaziz Medical City for the period 2016-2018. The cost difference between patients receiving targeted therapy (TT) and those with wild-type tumors and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was performed. The relationship between aggregate cost and demographic profiles, resource utilization, clinical conditions, and treatment therapies using multivariate regression technique was conducted. Results: A total of 35 patients of lung cancer patients with non-small cell lung cancer were analyzed, of which, 34% received targeted therapy; the median age was 62 years (29-84), 43% were ≥ 65 years, 20% were alive; 74% were in stage IV, 69% had visited ED more than twice, and 69% were admitted for non-ICU-related issues. The mean aggregate cost for all patients was USD 197,300 and it was USD 176,000 for TT patients compared with USD 210,600 for non-TT patients. The mean cost for targeted patients was higher for medication components, which accounts for 87.8% of all the costs. On average, the targeted group had USD 34,600 less cost compared with wild type. At least in terms of non-ICU admissions, both groups had on average two admissions. Thus, in terms of ICER, the targeted therapy dominates as it shows lower average aggregate cost for a given level of effectiveness. While longevity (survival) was associated with a higher cost, having stage IV was associated with lower cost for the targeted group compared with wild-type. Generally, being female, > 65 years of age, non-Saudi, and insurance eligibility were associated with lower costs. Conclusions: TT patients had a lower aggregate average cost in spite of expensive medications treatment. This lower aggregate cost presents an added value to the known advantages of patient survival and quality of life.

Breast cancer is classified as the most frequently diagnosed cancer site among women in Saudi Arabia [1-3], with its incidence continuing to increase rapidly during recent decades [2,4], and it can occur in women at an early age [2,3,5-7].

This study recognises periodic outbreaks of measles continue to affect conflict and fragile zones in the least developed countries. This study set out to provide evidence for the indirect costs or economic loss associated with measles-related deaths among children aged 0–14 years in Somalia. Using epidemiologic and economic data, the indirect cost was calculated based on the framework of the World Health Organisation guide of identifying the economic consequences of disease and injury. The baseline indirect cost was computed as the product of discounted future productive years of life lost (PYLL), non-health gross domestic product per capita (NHGDPPC) and the estimated total measles deaths (ETMD). The model was adjusted for conflict and fragility conditions and further extension considered a finite and stable upper limit growth of the instability-adjusted NHGDPPC. To discount future costs, a rate of 3% was applied. Using a ±20% variability assumption of the epidemiologic and economic factor inputs, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to account for uncertainty. In 2015 values, the ETMD of 3723 measles deaths of children aged 0–14 years could decrease non-health GDP of the country by $23.46 million, a potential loss of $6303 per death over the discounted PYLL. The loss would increase by 5.3% when adjusted for conflict and fragility conditions. Assuming growth, the future adjusted loss is expected to be $35.91 million in 2015 values. Girl-child deaths accounted for 51.2% of the burden. Results are robust to the variations in the model inputs, although sensitivity analyses suggest the proportion of total measles deaths and the discount rate accounted for greater uncertainty of the loss than do the proportion of growth and instability assumption. Conflict and fragility accounted for the least uncertainty, perhaps confirming their relative perpetuity in Somalia. Results show significant indirect cost related to measles deaths of children, exacerbated by conflict and fragility. This is an economic burden, but one which the health system, policy-makers, government and other stakeholders should be prepared to colossally discount by collectively taking measles surveillance and security measures now to reduce further deaths in the future.

This study set out to identify and analyse trends and seasonal variations of monthly global reported cases of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). It also made a prediction based on the reported and extrapolated into the future by forecasting the trend. Finally, the study assessed contributions of various risk factors in the reported cases. The motivation for this study is that MERS-CoV remains among the list of blueprint priority and potential pandemic diseases globally. Yet, there is a paucity of empirical literature examining trends and seasonality as the available evidence is generally descriptive and anecdotal. The study is a time series analysis using monthly global reported cases of MERS-CoV by the World Health Organisation between January 2015 and January 2018. We decomposed the series into seasonal, irregular and trend components and identified patterns, smoothened series, generated predictions and employed forecasting techniques based on linear regression. We assessed contributions of various risk factors in MERS-CoV cases over time. Successive months of the MERS-CoV cases suggest a significant decreasing trend (P = 0.026 for monthly series and P = 0.047 for Quarterly series). The MERS-CoV cases are forecast to wane by end 2018. Seasonality component of the cases oscillated below or above the baseline (the centred moving average), but no association with the series over time was noted. The results revealed contributions of risk factors such as camel contact, male, old age and being from Saudi Arabia and Middle East regions to the overall reported cases of MERS-CoV. The trend component and several risk factors for global MERS-CoV cases, including camel contact, male, age and geography/region significantly affected the series. Our statistical models appear to suggest significant predictive capacity and the findings may well inform healthcare practitioners and policymakers about the underlying dynamics that produced the globally reported MERS-CoV cases.

In an era of expanding health sectors and rising costs, doctors are expected to have a working knowledge of health economics to better use resources and improve outcomes and quality of health care. This article recognizes the dearth of knowledge and application of economic analyses in medical education and clinical practice in Saudi Arabia. In particular, it highlights the desirability of knowledge of health economics in ensuring certain competencies in medical education and the rationale for inviting doctors to apply knowledge of economics in Saudi Arabia. In addition, the article discusses challenges that hinder integrating health economics into clinical practice. Furthermore, the article typifies some of the important economic phenomena that physicians need to discern. Besides, the article provides implications for incorporating economic analysis into medical education and clinical practice in Saudi Arabia. Finally, the article concludes by demonstrating how health economics can enhance doctors' knowledge and recommends the country to move towards integrating health economics into medical education and clinical practice for best practice.

Background/Objectives. This paper seeks to identify the prevalence of Phenylketonuria (PKU) in Arab countries, Turkey, and Iran. The study reviewed the existence of comprehensive national newborn screening programs and reported consanguinity rates.Methods. A computer based literature search was conducted using relevant keywords to retrieve studies conducted on PKU. A total of 34 articles were included. Prevalence was categorized based on the type of screening method used for PKU diagnoses.Results. The prevalence of classical PKU diagnosed through a comprehensive national newborn screening program ranged from 0.005% to 0.0167%. The highest prevalence was reported in Turkey at 0.0167%, whereas the lowest prevalence was reported in the UAE, 0.005%.Conclusion. The findings of this review emphasize the need for the establishment of more efficient reporting systems in these countries that would help measure Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) in order to estimate the overall societal burden of PKU.

Background: The recent outbreak of bubonic plague in Madagascar reminds us of the continuing public health challenges posed by such deadly diseases in various parts of the world years after their eradication. This study examines the role of Twitter in public health disease surveillance with special focus on how Twitter intensity, time, and location issues explain Twitter plague message delay. Method: We retrospectively analyzed the Twitter feeds of the 2014 bubonic plague outbreak in Madagascar. The analyses are based on the plague-related data available in the public domain between November 19th and 27th 2014. The data were compiled in March 2015. We calculated the time differential between the tweets and retweets, and analyzed various characteristics of the Tweets including Twitter intensity of the users. Results: A total of 6873 Twitter users were included in the study, of which 52% tweeted plague-related information during the morning hours (before mid-day), and 87% of the tweets came from the west of the epicenter of the plague. More importantly, while session of tweet lease and relative location had effect on message lapse, absolute location did not. Additionally, we found no evidence of differential effect of location on message lapse based on relative location i.e. tweets from west or east nor number of following. However, there is evidence that more intense Twitter use appears to have significant effect on message lapse such that as the number of tweets became more intense, time differential between the tweets and retweets increased while higher number of retweets diminished message lapse. Conclusion: This study affirms that Twitter can play an important role in ongoing disease surveillance and the timely dissemination of information during public health emergencies independent of the time and space restrictions. Further ways should be explored to embed social media channels in routine public health practice. Keywords: Twitter, Social media, Bubonic plague, Madagascar, Outbreak, Surveillance, Public health

This study set out to identify and analyse trends and seasonal variations of monthly global reported cases of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). It also made a prediction based on the reported and extrapolated into the future by forecasting the trend. Finally, the study assessed contributions of various risk factors in the reported cases. The motivation for this study is that MERS-CoV remains among the list of blueprint priority and potential pandemic diseases globally. Yet, there is a paucity of empirical literature examining trends and seasonality as the available evidence is generally descriptive and anecdotal. The study is a time series analysis using monthly global reported cases of MERS-CoV by the World Health Organisation between January 2015 and January 2018. We decomposed the series into seasonal, irregular and trend components and identified patterns, smoothened series, generated predictions and employed forecasting techniques based on linear regression. We assessed contributions of various risk factors in MERS-CoV cases over time. Successive months of the MERS-CoV cases suggest a significant decreasing trend (P = 0.026 for monthly series and P = 0.047 for Quarterly series). The MERS-CoV cases are forecast to wane by end 2018. Seasonality component of the cases oscillated below or above the baseline (the centred moving average), but no association with the series over time was noted. The results revealed contributions of risk factors such as camel contact, male, old age and being from Saudi Arabia and Middle East regions to the overall reported cases of MERS-CoV. The trend component and several risk factors for global MERS-CoV cases, including camel contact, male, age and geography/region significantly affected the series. Our statistical models appear to suggest significant predictive capacity and the findings may well inform healthcare practitioners and policymakers about the underlying dynamics that produced the globally reported MERS-CoV cases.

This article analyzes the effects of copyrights on economic development and international trade. First, we apply an aggregate production function to examine the effects of “copyright-related capital” (CRC) on development. This form of capital includes personal computers, servers, and bandwidth, which embody or transmit copyrighted materials. Second, we apply the gravity model of international trade to examine the effects of copyright policies on bilateral trade in core copyright industries. Third, we integrate the above frameworks to examine the two-stage effects of copyrights on development, and then on trade. We analyze these relationships using cross-sectional data for a large sample of countries. The findings show that a country's CRC contributes positively to its economic development. The findings also show that the relative harmonization of copyright policies between countries has a positive effect on bilateral trade in core copyright industries. Finally, the findings show evidence of a two-stage process where a country's CRC contributes positively to its economic development (stage 1), which then contributes positively to its trade (stage 2).

The objective of this paper is to explore the process of aligning the College of Public Health and Health Informatics research strengths at KSAU-HS with Saudi National Science Technology and Innovation Plan (NSTIP). Nineteen participants responded to a survey and reported on their research strengths, research goals, and research barriers. All 19 participants had academic faculty appointments at the assistant professor level. Five of the 19 participants, also had administrative level positions. A thematic content analysis was performed on the data. The comments were grouped into themes in a manner that reflected the objective of the exercise. Results show that although there are a variety of research strengths within the college, funding, staffing, bureaucracy, data access, and linkages with other healthcare organizations were barriers hindering research progress. This process has led the college to focus on two NSTIP-KACST national priority areas of 1) Information technology; and 2) Medical and Health related research. Future research will assess the outcome of the plan on the research agenda of the college.