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This paper discusses the possible use of the Graduate Reference Curriculum for Systems Engineering (GRCSE) to inform engineering accreditation efforts. The paper is organized as follows: The first section provides background on the genesis of GRCSE. The second section discusses the status of accreditation of systems engineering in the United States and Europe. The third section discusses the objectives, outcomes, and core body of knowledge contained in GRCSE. The last section concludes with a discussion of how the GRCSE work might be expected to influence future accreditation.

The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1559-3584.2011.00337.x An earlier nonparametric statistical study of GE F414 engine removals from operational F/A-18 aircraft in US Navy service provided insights into the lifetime patterns of engine removals for various causes. Inspection of the estimated hazard function for engine removals for foreign object damage (FOD) suggested that a parametric analysis using Erlang distributions might be fruitful, bolstered by a hypothesized relevance to the maintenance procedures governing engine removals for this cause, and their outcomes. The objective was both a better model to forecast engine removals and to provide insight into the number of FOD incidents it took to drive an engine removal. Gamma and Erlang distributions did better fit the removals data and provide a tool for predicting engine removals, aircraft availability impact, and the resultant maintenance workload. A parametric model using a cascade of Erlang functions was developed to simulate the combined FOD/line maintenance process, which provides insight into the outcomes expected under reasonable simplifying assumptions. This model predicts that the key research issue, the probability that a typical FOD event prompts a removal, cannot be estimated from engine removals data alone. Field data must be collected to gain understanding of the underlying frequency of FOD and the utility of the present inspection criteria.

This report was prepared for CAPT Mike Lilienthal, PhD, CPE, and funded by ASN (RDA) CHENG and the Modeling and Simulation Coordination Office (MSCO). This technical report presents the deliverables for calendar year 2007 for the "Educating the Modeling and Simulation Workforce" project performed for the DoD Modeling and Simulation Steering Committee. It includes the results for spirals one and two. Spiral one is an analysis of the educational needs of the program manager, systems engineer, and test and evaluation workforces against a set of educational skill requirements developed by the project team. This is referred to as the 'learning matrix'. Spiral two is a set of module and course matrices, along with delivery options, that meets the educational needs indentified in spiral one. This is referred to as the 'learning architecture'. Supporting materials, such as case studies and a handbook, are included. These documents serve as the design framework for spirals three and four, to be completed in CY2008, and which involve the actual production and testing of the courses in the learning architecture and their longitudinal assessment. This report includes the creative work of a seven university consortium and a group of M&S stake-holders, together comprising over 60 personnel. ASN (RDA) CHENG and the Modeling and Simulation Coordination Office (MSCO). This report was prepared for CAPT Mike Lilienthal, PhD, CPE, and funded by ASN (RDA) CHENG and the Modeling and Simulation Coordination Office (MSCO).

CGF Computer Generated Forces and Behavioral Representation This paper presents two important interoperability issues for computer-generated forces. The first is fundamental and concerns the inconsistent representation of interfiring times of direct-fire weapons in ground combat in entity-level (i.e. discrete-event) and aggregated-force (with attrition modeled by Lanchester-type equations) combat simulations. The second is behavioral and again concerns inconsistent representation of platform-level command and control in such combat in entity-level and aggregated-force simulations. This second inconsistency concerns combatsystem behavior in acquiring and attacking (i.e. firing at) enemy systems, i.e. whether or not new targets can be acquired while an enemy target is being engaged. Computational evidence of the seriousness of the consequences of such inconsistencies on simulation output is presented. This paper shows how they can be avoided by appropriate mathematical modeling of Lanchester attrition-rate coefficients in aggregated-force combat simulations. Without such modeling, however, fundamental inconsistencies (with significant consequences) currently exist between all entity-level and aggregated-force combat simulations.

The budget to build ships and modernize and sustain the C4I systems installed is limited. Lead times for contracting are long, while technology changes rapidly after contract award. The shipboard C4I network examined in this thesis typifies this dichotomy. The challenge is to provide the latest shipboard network that meets the C4I capability needs of the warfighter at ship delivery, while at the same time supporting the shipbuilder’s need for Government Furnished Information (GFI) and Government Furnished Equipment (GFE) supporting the Ship Construction schedule. This thesis analyzes whether to install the legacy Shipboard Wide Area Network (SWAN), where the FGI is firm, or install the newer Consolidated Afloat Network Enterprise System (CANES), where the GFI is evolving, on LPD 28 during New Ship Construction. Recommendations include implementation of the Design Budget Approach during New Ship Construction, use of the Systems Engineering (SE) V Method during C4I network system development to verify and validate warfighter requirements can be net, and a commitment to the GFE Program of Record (POR) C4I network solutions. http://archive.org/details/meetingchallenge1094545241 Civilian, Program Executive Office C4I Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The Naval Systems Engineering Guide (NESG) was written in 2004 by representatives from NAVSEA, NAVFAC, NAVAIR, NAVSUP and MARCORSYSCOM. Since then, three other foundational systems engineering documents have been written or revised the International Standards Organization (ISO) Standard 15288 in 2008, the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) Systems Engineering Handbook in 2011, and The guide to the Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge (SEBoK) in 2012. This thesis compares the treatment of one life cycle element, in-service engineering, across all four documents, in order to offer a comparative analysis of the NESG in light of key industry standards and make recommendations for the revision of the NESG. The gap analysis performed in relation to crucial industry documents suggests that future revisions of the NSEG should include substantial discussion of Operations, Maintenance, Service Life Extension and Disposal Processes, as well as identify best practices for each process. http://archive.org/details/benchmarkingnava1094517327 Lieutenant, United States Navy (Retired)

Squadron Officer College (SOC) provides professional military education to captains in the U.S. Air Force. Improved requirements elicitation, work-breakdown structure analysis, and capacity analysis are recommended to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of SOC. Because course length is constrained by other USAF needs, a method for trading requirement satisfaction using stakeholders is recommended to maximize value from the available time. Significant efficiencies are identified that can result in increased student throughput, increased curriculum content, or both. Currently, SOC can graduate 4,060 students yearly and has facilities to handle over 6000 students per year. Increasing the percentage of staff that actively teaches has the greatest effect on throughput; 36% of staff are actively instructing. Administration and organization efficiencies should be explored to increase the percentage of active instructors. Implementing a continuous improvement cycle could increase student learning regardless of throughput. Spiral development could be implemented to update lessons or the entire course. Customer feedback and stakeholder involvement need to be improved; currently, SOC customers, Air Force commanders, do not have a direct and timely way to influence curriculum design. Using different delivery modalities, SOC may find new efficiencies or increase learning effectiveness. SOC should examine combinations of online delivery methods in order to reduce course length or costs. http://archive.org/details/systemengineerin109456827 Captain, United States Air Force

Combat operations are suffering from unnecessarily high fuel demand which degrades capability, exposes support operations to greater risk than necessary, and increases operations and support costs. This thesis describes the current suite of hybrid drivetrain technologies, evaluates their effectiveness in a tactical environment, and suggests an architecture that reduces fuel consumption while maintaining performance against mobility, transportability, survivability, and safety requirements. This thesis includes a comprehensive analysis of nine power sources and three general hybrid architectures against ten performance attributes using multiple criterion decision theory with considerations for selection criteria dependencies and vehicle duty cycles. The rating of selection criteria is not always a direct comparison of component performance parameters. In some cases, capabilities are dependent on the general hybrid architecture and on the form of energy storage in others. In a fully burden cost of fuel context, the capability of hybrid drivetrains to improve fuel economy of vehicles by up to 20% translates to $0.39-$83.54 billion in annual savings across the Army's tactical wheeled vehicle fleet depending on the fuel delivery method. The recommended hybrid drivetrain architecture is a series hybrid with a diesel engine primary power source, flywheel secondary power source, and permanent magnet traction motors. http://archive.org/details/ahybridpproachto109455603 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, questions developed over how quickly the country could respond if a bioterrorism attack was to occur. "Syndromic surveillance" systems are a relatively new concept that is being implemented and used by public health practitioners to attempt to detect a bioterrorism attack earlier than would be possible using conventional biosurveillance methods. The idea behind using syndromic surveillance is to detect a bioterrorist attack by monitoring potential leading indicators of an outbreak such as absenteeism from work or school, over-the-counter drug sales, or emergency room counts. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention's Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) is one syndromic surveillance system that is currently in operation around the United States. This thesis compares the performance of three syndromic surveillance detection algorithms, entitled C1, C2, and C3, that are implemented in EARS, versus the CUSUM applied to model-based prediction errors. The CUSUM performed significantly better than the EARS' methods across all of the scenarios evaluated. These scenarios consisted of various combinations of large and small background disease incidence rates, seasonal cycles from large to small (as well as no cycle), daily effects, and various levels of random daily variation. This results in the recommendation to replace the C1, C2, and C3 methods in existing syndromic surveillance systems with an appropriately implemented CUSUM method. http://archive.org/details/biologicalterror109453373 US Navy (USN) author. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Biological terrorism is a threat to the security and well-being of the United States. It is critical to detect the presence of these attacks in a timely manner, in order to provide sufficient and effective responses to minimize or contain the damage inflicted. Syndromic surveillance is the process of monitoring public health-related data and applying statistical tests to determine the potential presence of a disease outbreak in the observed system. Our research involved a comparative analysis of two multivariate statistical methods, the multivariate CUSUM (MCUSUM) and the multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA), both modified to look only for increases in disease incidence. While neither of these methods is currently in use in a biosurveillance system, they are among the most promising multivariate methods for this application. Our analysis was based on a series of simulations using synthetic syndromic surveillance data that mimics various types of background disease incidence and outbreaks. We found that, similar to results for the univariate CUSUM and EWMA, the directionally-sensitive MCUSUM and MEWMA perform very similarly. http://archive.org/details/acomparativenaly109453417 US Navy (USN) authors. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The first part of this thesis aims to identify and analyze what aspects of the MIL-HDBK-217 prediction model are causing the large variation between prediction and field reliability. The key findings of the literature research suggest that the main reason for the inaccuracy in prediction is because of the constant failure rate assumption used in MIL-HDBK-217 is usually not applicable. Secondly, even if the constant failure rate assumption is applicable, the disparity may still exist in the presence of design and quality related problems in new systems. A possible solution is to apply reliability growth testing (RGT) to new systems during the development phase in an attempt to remove these design deficiencies so that the system's reliability will grow and approach the predicted value. In view of the importance of RGT in minimizing the disparity, this thesis provides a detailed application of the AMSAA Extended Reliability Growth Models to the reliability growth analysis of a combat system. It shows how program managers can analyze test data using commercial software to estimate the system demonstrated reliability and the increased in reliability due to delayed fixes. http://archive.org/details/analysisofreliab109451788 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis is the second part of a three-part thesis study that was started by LTC Martin Fair in June 2004. In his initial thesis, LTC Fair built a database by joining information from the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. zip codes, and USAR zip code data. LTC Fair also formulated a network flow model and began an initial implementation of the first of many constraints. My thesis will validate the constraint models and develop the set of constraints that another project, by LTC Brau, will need to develop the network flow model. That model will optimize reserve unit readiness in the third and perhaps final part of the study. Since the early 1990's and the demise of the Cold War, the United States Army active and reserve forces have undergone dramatic restructuring. The Active component was reduced in size from 18 active divisions down to today's total of ten-a force cut of approximately 300,000 soldiers. Additionally, the United States Army Reserve forces mission shifted to a predominately Combat Support (CS) and Combat Service Support (CSS) mission. This realignment was an attempt to use the USAR component in a support role as the world situation dictated. Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent declaration of a "War on Terrorism," the United States Army Reserve (and active component) has been called upon to deploy more frequently and for extended periods of time. Maintaining unit readiness and a satisfactory "fill-rate" is probably one of the leading challenges that our reserve forces face. This thesis examines the relationship between unit location and recruiting success. We seek to maximize the fill rate of United States Army Reserve (USAR) units. Our method will correlate the vocational aptitudes of the US population with the Military Occupational Specialties (MOS) of the USAR units. http://archive.org/details/geodemographicna109451906 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Budget limitations have reduced the number of military components available for testing, and time constraints have reduced the amount of time available for actual testing resulting in many items still operating at the end of test cycles. These two factors produce small test populations (small sample size) with "heavily" censored data. The assumption of "normal approximation" for estimates based on these small sample sizes reduces the accuracy of confidence bounds of the probability plots and the associated quantities. This creates a problem in acquisition analysis because the confidence in the probability estimates influences the number of spare parts required to support a mission or deployment or determines the length of warranty ensuring proper operation of systems. This thesis develops a method that simulates small samples with censored data and examines the error of the Fisher-Matrix (FM) and the Likelihood Ratio Bounds (LRB) confidence methods of two test populations (size 10 and 20) with three, five, seven and nine observed failures for the Weibull distribution. This thesis includes a Monte Carlo simulation code written in S-Plus that can be modified by the user to meet their particular needs for any sampling and censoring scheme. To illustrate the approach, the thesis includes a catalog of corrected confidence bounds for the Weibull distribution, which can be used by acquisition analysts to adjust their confidence bounds and obtain a more accurate representation for warranty and reliability work. http://archive.org/details/asimulationstudy109451260 Civilian, Department of the Air Force Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This study models DoD suicides as a Poisson process to detect departures from usual variation using a self-starting control chart scheme. Methods are implemented in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet with Visual Basic macros for ease of use. Persistent shifts in the process mean are detected in the following months for each service component. Army: August 1985 (increase), September 1987 (decrease), April 1991 (increase), November 1997 (decrease), and September 2001 (decrease). Navy: December 1990 (decrease), January 1993 (increase), May 1994 (decrease), July 1995 (increase), and March 1996 (decrease). Marine Corps: January 1993 (increase) and March 1998 (decrease). Air Force: January 1988 (increase), April 1990 (decrease), November 1994 (increase), November 1998 (decrease), and April 1999 (decrease). http://archive.org/details/statisticalmonit109451383 Commander, United States Navy Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

"During four rounds of base realignment and closure (BRAC), the United States Army reduced its military infrastructure to meet its future national security and military requirements. After each round's closures and realignments were approved, all necessary actions (excluding some environmental cleanup) had to be scheduled over six years. The United State Army used an integer linear program, BRACAS (Base Realignment and Closure Action Schedule), to help guide the implementation of the 1995 round's actions. BRACAS schedules closure and realignment actions, and maximizes the net present value NPV of total cost savings while adhering to an annual budget and other constraints. This thesis updates BRACAS. Its main contribution is a more realistic inclusion of environmental cleanup costs. Using data based on the Army's 1995 round and letting BRACAS pick its yearly (1996-2001) budget, the refined BRACAS finds a 20-year NPV of $6 ,346 million. We examine how closures and the 20-year NPV are changed for several scenarios where we restrict yearly budgets and alter the inclusion of environmental cleanup costs."--p. i. http://archive.org/details/schedulingarmyba109451199 Major, Bahrain Defense Force (BDF) Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis develops an integer linear program called MSAMT (Model to Schedule Army Maneuver Training) to schedule an Army installation's maneuver training. We demonstrate MSAMT using a data set containing 261 platoon-level, 67 company-level and 18 battalion-level units, and 7 major training areas located at Fort Hood, Texas. Using a typical near-term planning horizon from 6 to 8 weeks, MSAMT schedules daily training for a randomly selected set of the stationed units and training requirements. For a 6-week time period and almost 65% (63 platoons 16 companies and 5 battalions) of the units there are 151 platoon-level, 51 company-level and 11 battalion-level required tasks of which MSAMT can schedule 93%. When the subset of units is increased to 80% (75 platoons, 20 companies, 6 battalions), there are 187 platoon-level, 62 company-level and 11 battalion-level tasks of which MSAMT can schedule only 85%. Maintaining the 80% unit level but having an 8 weekperiod increases required training achieved to 94%. Such results can help determine the ability of an Army installation to satisfy training requirements of its stationed units as well as identify a shortage or excess in available training land. It can show the training impact of changing the quantity of units at an installation and thereby aid in base realignment and closure decisions. http://archive.org/details/anintegerlinearp109451566 First Lieutenant, Turkish Army Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Manning United States Army Reserve (USAR) units are fundamentally different from manning Regular Army (RA) units. A soldier assigned to a USAR unit must live within 75 miles or 90 minutes commute of his Reserve Center (RC). This makes reserve unit positioning a key factor in the ability to recruit to fill the unit. This thesis automates, documents, reconciles, and assembles data on over 30,000 ZIP Codes, over 800 RCs, and over 260 Military Occupational Specialties (MOSs), drawing on and integrating over a dozen disparate databases. This effort produces a single data file with demographic, vocational, and economic data on every ZIP Code in America, along with the six year results of its RA, USAR, sister service recruit production, and MOS suitability for each of the 264 MOSs. Preliminary model development accounts for about 70% recruit production variation by ZIP Code. This thesis also develops models for the top five MOSs to predict the maximum number of recruits obtained from a ZIP Code for that MOS. Examples illustrate that ZIP Codes vary in their ability to provide recruits with sufficient aptitude for technical fields. Two subsequent theses will use those results. One completes the MOS models. The second uses the models as constraints in an optimization model to position RCs. An initial version of the optimization model is developed in this thesis. Together, the three theses will provide a powerful tool for analysis of a strategic-based optimal reserve force stationing. http://archive.org/details/geodemographicna109451592 Lieutenant Colonel, United States Army

The USAF officer accession sources annually produce three thousand non-rated line officers who must be classified into career fields. Under the current system, many career field accession goals are not met. This mismatch occurs primarily because of unreasonable targets set for the various commissioning sources. This thesis presents an optimization-based target allocation tool that mitigates the existing mismatch between long-term manpower needs and near-term accession source outputs. This Java-based application enables users to weight multiple objectives, set priorities for filling various career fields, solve for optimal targets, and then explore results, presented in the form of interactive tables and charts. Within a friendly graphical user interface, users determine practical targets with ease by interactively adjusting the optimality criteria and fill priorities and then reviewing the resulting classifications. These new targets will vastly improve the ability of the USAF to meet accession needs, exploit the unique skills of its officers, and satisfy officer preferences. This means that officer recruiting dollars will be better utilized as long-term manpower needs are better met. Additionally, job performance and retention are likely to improve as more career fields are filled with highly qualified officers and officers are more frequently placed into their desired career fields. http://archive.org/details/allocatingairfor109456270 Second Lieutenant, United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Analysis of U.S. Army Reserve recruiting is conducted across the U.S. Army with data from the Recruit Quota System (REQUEST). A combination of partial manual data entry and a decided lack of tools for large scale data extraction make REQUEST difficult to use for analysis without an extensive knowledge of the system. In this thesis, I develop a process for screening, preparing, and evaluating REQUEST data for subsequent analysis. This process uses data mining software to progressively work through a series of rules that outline data inconsistencies, mark these records for exclusion and later investigation, and generate a "clean" dataset for analysis. I examine enlistments over a four year period with respect to Military Occupational Specialty and training program structure. Data from the Army Training Requirements and Resource System (ATRRS) are used to provide an overview of Initial Entry Training seat quotas and usage, and to confirm and/or update training dates in the REQUEST dataset. The joint examination of enlistments and training seats provides new insights into enlistment patterns. Additional analysis is possible using demographic data provided by the U.S. Army Recruiting Command. I provide summaries of a few key demographic variables for various subsets of the enlistees, and discuss how similar analyses might prove useful for targeting recruiting efforts and incentives more effectively. Good decisions require good data. This thesis is a start in providing a framework for generating quality USAR accession data for analysis. http://archive.org/details/aframeworkforarm109451003 Major, United States Army Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.