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This paper investigates the relationships between the global oil market, stock markets, and economic policy, focusing on China and the US. We use a time-varying parameter stochastic volatility vector autoregression model to examine the transmission mechanisms between fluctuation in the global oil price, the volatility of the Chinese and US stock markets, and economic policy uncertainty in China and the US from 2003 to 2020. We observe significant correlations between the volatility of the two countries’ stock markets and fluctuation in the global oil price. Compared with the Chinese stock market, the US stock market has a greater impact on the global oil market. We also find that an increase in economic policy uncertainty in the two countries exacerbates fluctuation in the global oil price, particularly during times of crisis. In turn, greater fluctuation in the global oil price increases stock market volatility and economic policy uncertainty in both countries.

Traditional types of energy resources, among which oil is primary, have a huge influence on economic development in various manifestations. In our research, we discuss dependence of economic growth in oil-exporting countries on first-order factors, such as oil prices, oil production, and structural shift in a share of oil exports. To review 2005-2019, we chose leading oil-exporting nations, including the OPEC members (Iraq, Iran, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Nigeria), as well as countries outside this group (Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Norway). Having used statistical and regression techniques, we confirm that the correlation between oil price fluctuations and economic growth raises with the scale effect. Larger economies (by absolute GDP in oil-exporting nations and hydrocarbon production) might generate more intensive economic growth from positive changes in oil prices than small economies. Also, the OPEC members show the strongest structural shifts in the change of the share of oil exports than the other countries. Resulting regression dependences led us to the conclusion that in oil-exporting countries, economic growth largely depends on an increase in oil prices and changes in oil production rates. But contrary to the expectations saying that in time of downturns, as far as global oil prices fall, nations will reduce oil exports, we observe the reverse picture – changed role of the price factor. We explain this with the keeping income-balance strategy, where the oil price parameter is a tool to choose ideal production. Our findings show that with the 1%-increase in oil production, the countries under considerations (the OPEC members) might reach GDP from 0.0367% (Iraq) to 0.437% (Libya). For countries outside OPEC, such a GDP growth might be more intensive. For instance, in Russia, it might be up to 1.559%. This also points out that the joint coordinating policy in oil production affects the economic growth potential.

This study examined the relationship between the air quality index (AQI), COVID-19, and the oil market using China’s provincial data for the first four months of the pandemic (1 January–22 April 2020). The results show that air quality improved significantly during this period. Our income and regional group analyses further clarified that the middle-income group and Eastern and Central provinces, which were most affected by COVID-19, showed a more robust relationship between AQI and COVID-19 cases than other Chinese provinces. The national oil market, which saw a 57% decline in the oil price over the period of 13 January to 22 April, was also found to be insignificantly related to AQI. All in all, our paper implies that an improvement in air quality due to a drastic decline in economic activity. We provide some future research directions in the paper.

This paper explores the effect of market concentration of the Norwegian oil production sector (NPS) on Norway's second-largest industry, the oilfield services companies (OFS). To capture this effect, we use the system generalized method of moments approach (GMM) to estimate an empirical model, spanning the period 1993–2013. The findings indicate that increased market concentration is consistent with lower profitability of the oilfield services companies, as the bargaining power of oil companies relative to service companies increases. Increased knowledge about this effect could contribute to improving strategies for the further development of these industries by stakeholders.

The energy sector is known for its enormous investments, despite the erratic behaviour of the oil market (e.g. changes in crude oil prices). Therefore, strategic and tactical planning of the Hydroc...

This study examines frustration in oil market price shock effect on external reserves Nigeria 1970-2019. Objectives are; to examine frustration in oil market price shock on the Nigerian external reserves 1970 to 2019 and to ascertain the impact of frustration in oil price on the Nigerian external reserves. The study employed the following advanced econometric techniques; Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests, Structural VAR approach, Choleski decomposition and Imposing Short-run Restrictions test, statistical tests & Co-integration test. Based on the above econometric techniques conducted, it was observed that all the variables used became stationary after the first differences at degree of order one I (I). There is Co-integration (long run relations) among variables used in the study. Our results indicated that oil price does significantly influence shocks on external reserves in Nigeria the period of the study. Furthermore, frustration in oil price does insignificantly have impact on the external reserves in Nigeria from 1970 to 2019. The researcher recommends that; less emphasis of control should be placed on international market oil price since the oil price has 81% influences of international market externalities ‘shock on Nigeria external reserves. Rather, more emphasis should be place on other non-oil sector contributions to Nigeria external reserves since it may has virtually neutral or significant internal control that could lend to positive effect on external reserves in Nigeria. Direct manipulation of cured oil production and supply control policy should be Nigeria interest since Nigeria economy operates system of floating exchange rates

The variation of and the interrelation between different energy markets significantly affect the competitiveness of various energy technologies, therefore complicate the decision-making problem for a complex energy system consisting of multiple competing technologies, especially in a long-term time frame. The interrelations between these markets have not been accounted for in the existing energy system modelling efforts, leading to a distortion of understanding of the market impact on the technological choices and operations in the real world. This study investigates the strategic and operational decision-making problem for such an energy system characterized by three competing technologies from crude oil, natural gas, and coal. A stochastic programming model is constructed by incorporating multiple volatile energy prices interrelated with each other. Oil price is modelled by the mean-reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process and serves as the exogenous variable in the ARIMAX models for natural gas and downstream plastic prices. The K-means clustering method is employed to extract a handful of distinctive patterns from a large number of simulated price projections to enhance the computing efficiency without losing retaining critical information and insights from the price co-movement. The model results suggest that the high volatility of the energy market weakens the possibility of selecting the corresponding technology. The oil-based route, for example, gradually loses its market share to the coal approach, attributed to a higher volatile oil market. The proposed method is applicable to other problems of the same kind with high-dimensional stochastic variables. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10479-021-04229-3.

This study investigates the effect of financial stress (financial stress index; FSI) on oil market realized volatility using Markov-regime switching MIDAS models. The empirical results show that FS...

This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus permanent shocks, pointing to the importance of disentangling their distinct effects. Permanent supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements during the most recent decades, while speculative shocks became less influential.

The article analyzes the global oil market, determines what factors and conditions affect its transformation. The situation in the oil market is developing in such a way that the price is the main indicator in the transformation of the world oil market. The article focuses on global oil production and global oil consumption, which are dependent on the price environment. That is, the conjectural factor that is most well-known in the development of the oil market and is associated with changes in world production (supply), consumption (demand), which dictates price offers. At the same time, there are significant price fluctuations and caused by other factors that affect the transformation of the world oil market, such as: economic factors, geopolitical factors, as well as technological factors.The purpose of the article is to determine the transformational factors of the world oil market in the conditions of shock conditions that occurred in the conditions of price “collapses” in the market, leading to sharp and significant changes in the entire world economic system.Methodological tools of scientific articles are based on an integrated approach of analysis of the world oil market based on scientific research methods, which include methods of system approach, comparative analysis, synthesis, empirical research - systematization, economic and statistical groups, as well as historical-logical method.

This study examines the relationship among the price variables in the Thailand stock market, the foreign exchange market, the international gold market, and the crude oil market. Specifically, the study investigates whether (1) there exists a long-run equilibrium among oil price, gold price, foreign exchange, and the stock market index in Thailand, and (2) there is any dynamic effect of each asset market on other asset markets. All asset price series have shown both upward and downward trends over the study period. All monthly series in four markets from January 2000 to December 2018 are nonstationary and are integrated of order one. Then, the Johansen cointegration test is employed. The normalized cointegrating coefficients are negative. Such empirical result reveals that a significant long-run relationship exists among price variables in all asset markets, so that each asset class acts as a hedge against each other. The Granger causality test shows that the causations run from the stock price to the foreign exchange rate and the international gold price to the foreign exchange rate. Other short-run relationships have no significant causal links.

The global market for high-value fatty acids production, mainly omega-3/6, hydroxy fatty-acids, waxes and their derivatives, has seen strong development in the last decade. The reason for this growth was the increasing utilization of these lipids as significant ingredients for cosmetics, food and the oleochemical industries. The large demand for these compounds resulted in a greater scientific interest in research focused on alternative sources of oil production - among which microorganisms attracted the most attention. Microbial oil production offers the possibility to engineer the pathways and store lipids enriched with the desired fatty acids. Moreover, costly chemical steps are avoided and direct commercial use of these fatty acids is available. Among all microorganisms, the oleaginous yeasts have become the most promising hosts for lipid production - their efficient lipogenesis, ability to use various (often highly affordable) carbon sources, feasible large-scale cultivations and wide range of available genetic engineering tools turns them into powerful micro-factories. This review is an in-depth description of the recent developments in the engineering of the lipid biosynthetic pathway with oleaginous yeasts. The different classes of valuable lipid compounds with their derivatives are described and their importance for human health and industry is presented. The emphasis is also placed on the optimization of culture conditions in order to improve the yield and titer of these valuable compounds. Furthermore, the important economic aspects of the current microbial oil production are discussed.

In this article, we provide a structured review of crude oil price dynamics. Specifically, we summarize evidence on important factors determining oil prices, cover the impact of oil market shocks o...

In this paper, we assess the dynamic impact of the U.S. monetary policy announcements on oil market futures returns and volatility. We use intra-day data for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil futures together with a time-varying modeling approach to study the nature of this dynamic impact. In addition, we also control for macroeconomic news shocks and separately study the response of good and bad realized volatility. Evidence suggests that there is a significant time variation in the response of oil returns, as well as its volatility to the Federal Reserve policy announcements. Broadly, we also find that higher (lower) uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy actions is associated with a weaker (stronger) impact of the surprise policy announcements on oil returns and volatility.

The article considers the main mechanisms for controlling the formation of oil prices, including Brent and Urals brands. Based on the analysis of trends in the oil market and their dynamics over the past decades, the authors identify factors affecting pricing in the oil market, different oil market price control systems, and their dynamics. Our results show that there is a substantial price gap in the world oil market between the Brent reference grade and the Urals crude grade, while the formation of the Urals brand price is opaque. Comparing the key characteristics of different systems of price control in the oil market, we revealed that under the influence of external and internal factors, the system of control over pricing in the oil market underwent significant changes throughout its existence. The authors conclude that at present, there are real prerequisites for the institutional correction of the global oil market in terms of strengthening the administrative levers of developed countries control over exchange and OTC pricing mechanisms.Keywords: oil market, Brent brand, Urals brand, oil price, pricing factors, pricing system, pricing control mechanism.JEL Classifications: G23; L52; O24DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.11022

The conception of financialization and the impacts of the oil market will be presented in this work from an alternative perspective. Financialization will not be analyzed as a dominance of finance ...

Digitalization of the economic system of the Russian Federation is a natural process dictated by modern requirements for the development of the international market of goods and services. The widespread adoption of digital technologies will reduce the costs of the production process, as well as spend less time on obtaining a unit of production or on providing a service. The purpose of this study is to identify the advantages and disadvantages of digital platforms for the oil market. The research is based on the analysis of digital platforms developed by vertically integrated oil companies and other legal entities. As a result of the conducted research, it was revealed that the existing digital platforms differ in their functional purpose: some allow to optimize and control all stages of the production process; others are platforms for the implementation of various software solutions for the oil industry; others are an ecosystem designed for the purchase and sale of various product categories. The results obtained allow us to conclude that the oil market is in a favorable position for the development of a modern digital platform that takes into account the advantages and disadvantages of analogues, as well as creating its own ecosystem

This paper discusses issues related to the current state of the world oil market. The system of indicators of the development of the world oil market has been determined. Analyzed the current state of the world oil market and changes in it that followed due to the outbreak of coronavirus and the rupture of the OPEC + deal. The modern world market for oil and oil products is one of the key markets in the world economy, which explains the importance of its research in the context of analyzing industry markets. The basic forecast of the development of the world oil market for 2020 is considered. The reasons for the change in the forecast of the oil market development for 2020 are revealed.

This study employs the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity-mixed data sample framework to examine the role of oil market shocks in determining the long-term volatility of cryptocurrencies. We analyzed three cryptocurrencies, namely, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, and six oil market shocks, namely, oil price return (OR), oil realized volatility (ORV), oil realized skewness (ORSV), oil supply shocks (OSS), and oil demand shocks [global aggregate demand for industrial commodities (OADS) and crude oil market demand shocks (OSDS)]. The empirical results of the study reveal that OR, ORV, ORSV, and the two types of oil demand shocks (OADS and OSDS) and OSS have negative and positive impacts, respectively, on the long-term volatility of cryptocurrencies. We further gained insights on the economic underpinnings and observed that the ability of the oil market shocks to signal the uncertainty of the macroeconomic environment is clearly the most important source of its negative and significant impact on the volatility of cryptocurrencies. Moreover, an adverse oil market shock increases the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies, as they could provide shelter from sovereign risk and weakness. Overall, our study highlights a clear and comprehensive understanding of the association between the oil market risk and the cryptocurrency volatility dynamic and the possibility for cryptocurrencies to act as a hedge under specific uncertain economic conditions.

Intraday return predictability has firstly been identified in the equity markets, and we extend the analysis to the crude oil market by using high-frequency United States Oil Fund data from 2006 to 2018. We find a different intraday prediction pattern in the oil market, where only the first half-hour returns positively predict the last half-hour returns. A market timing strategy based on these findings generates substantial profits. We further decompose the first half-hour return into its overnight and open half-hour components and find that the former contains more predictive information. The economic mechanisms of infrequent portfolio rebalancing and the presence of late-informed investors explain our findings. Notably, unlike equity markets, the oil market exhibits a unique intraday trading volume pattern due to the release of two routine oil inventory announcements. However, the information contained in the inventory announcements does not offer predictability for the last half-hour returns.

The sharp changes in oil prices since 2004 featured a nonlinear data-generating mechanism which displayed bubble-like behavior. A popular view is that such a salient pattern cannot be explained by shifts in economic fundamentals, but was driven by speculative bubbles as a consequence of the increased financialization of oil future markets. Testing this hypothesis, however, is challenging since the fundamental component of the oil price is unobservable. This paper attempts to isolate the contribution of speculative bubbles and fundamentals to the evolution of oil prices by providing a stylized model of commodity pricing. Motivated by our theoretical model, we adopt a continuous-time model with a random and time-varying persistence parameter to empirically investigate the presence of speculative bubbles in daily oil future prices over the period April 1983 to June 2020. We do not find any evidence in favor of speculative bubbles, although we indeed find that oil prices exhibit episodes of unstable behavior after 2004.

This study aims to investigate the possible systemic risk from the oil market and to assess the risk contagions of oil price shocks that have negative consequences for international stock markets. A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise is applied in this study. The symmetric and asymmetric delta conditional value at risk (Δ C o V a R ) approach recently proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2016) on the basis of a quantile regression is also used. This novel methodology allows a measure of contagion risk related to the oil market to be identified. Then, whether the risk contribution for a given market is significant is detected when distinguishing between tail events driven by financial factors, economic fundamentals, or both. The results from the use of both in-sample and out-of-sample tests in the empirical work show that international risk spillovers are significantly affected by oil price shocks. Further, the predictability of systemic risk spillovers based on the oil market is robust during positive (or negative) oil return periods and high (or low) market volatility periods over long time horizons and is not covered by past Δ C o V a R information. Therefore, oil market returns are stated as being effective predictors of international systemic risk.

The author in the article examines the process of formation of OPEC as a regulator of the world oil market. He reveals the background causes for its creation and shows the key stages of the Organization’s development. The author considers the issues and prospects for the further evolution of the Organization, as well as the oil sector influencing the development of the participating countries. The article also defines mechanisms that allow OPEC to have an effect on the oil market: they are “free production capacities” of the Organization’s countries, and the production quotas system. It analyzes periods of the growth and decline in the oil prices, production volumes, as well as the events preceding them. The article states that for more than half a century of history, OPEC has become one of the key players in the world oil market.

The article considers the forecasts and forward-looking estimates of the development of the world economy and its oil sector, including the situation with demand and prices on the world oil market, published by the world's leading analytical and forecasting centers in the run-up to 2020, in comparison with the expected results and preliminary estimates of the actual development of the situation. It is shown that almost from the first months of 2020, events in the world began to unfold according to unforeseen scenar-ios, and how, in accordance with the developing situation, the forecasts made earlier changed. The author analyzed the evolution of predictions for oil demand in 2020 made by EIA USA and the OPEC Secretariat in the period since December 2019 and January 2021, compared to the end of 2018-2019, and the expected outcome in 2020 (as in the whole world and its main regions and countries). The article gives the latest estimates of the expected results of development of the world economy and its oil sector in 2020, made by experts of the IMF, the OECD, the IEA, the OPEC Secretariat and other organi-zations, and their projections for 2021 It is shown that the IEA experts, way USA and the OPEC Secretariat almost equally understand the dynamics of expected global oil demand this year. Their adjustment of the forecast estimates for 2021 was generally consistent with the development of the situation on the world oil markets in 2020 and followed the refinement of the estimates for 2020. Accordingly, these estimates do not contain any funda-mental changes in the current trends. Their authors assume that in 2021, the world oil markets will continue to face significant uncertainty, both directly re-lated to the coronavirus pandemic and the unresolved problems accumulat-ed over the previous two years in the global economy. It is concluded that based on the specifics of the current transition stage of the development of the world economy and energy, it is necessary to build a domestic system for monitoring and forecasting the world economy and its oil and gas sector. © 2021, Neftyanoe Khozyaistvo. All rights reserved.

The global oil market is currently being heavily impacted by the build-up of renewable energy power plants due to the threat of a warming climate. Many countries have decided to restructure the energy sector to minimize the burning of fossil fuels. This decision reduces the demand for oil and forces a revision of long-term oil market forecasts. The virulent COVID-2019 virus, which emerged in late 19, has caused a massive pandemic. The pandemic has markedly reduced human activity in all countries and, in the absence of effective drugs to deal with this virus and its many strains, poses additional long-term threats to both the global econ-omy and the oil market. This is confirmed by the forecasts of oil companies and think tanks discussed in this article.

The goal of the article is to analyze the role of Saudi Arabia in the world oil market and in the world economy for a long historical period. It is shown that strategically behavior of Saudi Arabia always was and continues to be subordinated to ensuring the stable supply of oil into the world oil market. Under the Saudi Arabia leadership OPEC aims at pursuing an economically rational and responsible policy, supporting the balance of the demand for oil and its supply thus allow¬ing to avoid deep and lasting oil price decline. Until the very recently an important factor impacting the formulation of Saudi oil policy was maintaining of strategic interaction with the US. The restructuring of the world oil market driven by the shale revolution and nearing peak of global demand for oil have created new challenges for Saudi Arabia oil strategy. The OPEC+ situational agreement enacted since 2017 by OPEC and non-OPEC countries to voluntary reduce levels of oil production temporarily allows to keep a supply – demand balance in the world oil market preventing from substantial drop in oil prices. At the same time the agreement opens opportunities for competitors, first of all American producers of tight oil, to maintain and expand export niches. Shale revolution created a situation when oil interests of the US and Saudi Arabia came into open conflict. For political and strategic considerations, a price war in order to crowd American oil producers with their relatively high production costs out of the market is not a feasible option for the Kingdom. Attempts to transform the state oil company Saudi Aramco into a mega supermajor utilizing on the global economic and financial potential have failed as the leading international banks and corporations avoided the company’s IPO. The failure of Saudi Aramco partial privatization is a signal of a false start of a company to open the Saudi economy to large-scale in-flow of foreign investment. Paradoxically the long-term perspectives of Saudi Arabia crucially depend on how effectively it will use in the coming 10–20 years oil export earnings for diversification of national economy outside the oil sector. Acknowledgements. The article was prepared within the project “Post-crisis world order: challenges and technologies, competition and cooperation” supported by the grant from Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation program for research projects in priority areas of scientific and technological development (Agreement № 075-15-2020-783).

تعتبر الضرائب جزءا مهما من الأنظمة الاقتصادية، و تشکل مصدرا رئيسيا لميزانية الدولة وبرامجها التنموية في الدول المتقدمة أما في الدول المنتجة للنفط، بما فيها دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي، فإن تمويل الموازنات السنوية وبرامج التنمية يعتمد أساسا على عائداتها من الصادرات النفطية. وقد شهدت دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي تحولات کبيرة بسبب التغيرات المتلاحقة في أسواق النفط وتأثير ذلک على أسعاره. مما يؤثر على مسارات التنمية في دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي، نظرا لأهمية الإيرادات النفطية في اقتصادها فهي الممول الرئيس لموازنتها وبالتالي تعتمد معدلات النمو والاستثمار في القطاعات الاقتصادية الأخرى فيها على تلک الإيرادات، کما أن عدم النظر بجدية في الماضي إلى الضرائب کأداة تنموية وتوزيعية، وکمورد رئيسي من موارد الدخل، قد تسبب في غياب المحاولات الجادة لتطوير السياسات الضريبية في دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي. إن هبوط أسعار النفط والضغوط على الميزانية المرتبطة بها في منطقة تستمد الحکومات فيها معظم عائداتها من قطاع النفط والغاز أدى إلى زيادة التوجه نحو الإصلاح الضريبي. ومن ثم فإن فرض ضرائب جديدة وخاصة ضريبة القيمة المضافة في المنطقة سيخفف من اعتماد الحکومات على عائدات النفط والغاز المتدنية وسيوفر لها مصدرا بديلا للإيرادات المستدامة. وقد خطت دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي خطوة کبيرة للتأقلم مع انخفاض سعر النفط حينما وافق وزراء المالية على فرض ضريبة القيمة المضافة، والذي يعتبر أحد أبرز الإصلاحات الاقتصادية المهمة، فقد صادق وزراء مالية دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي على مشروع اتفاق حول الضريبة على القيمة المضافة، والتي تصل إلى 5 %، بعد اتفاقهم على حزمة من الضرائب الأخرى، والغرض من ذلک هو إدخال نظام متکامل وموحد يتم من خلاله فرض ضريبة القيمة المضافة على استيراد وتوريد السلع والخدمات في کل مرحلة من مراحل سلسلة التصنيع والتوزيع. وسيتم تناول ذلک الموضوع من خلال مقدمة- مبحث تمهيدي بعنوان ضريبة القيمة المضافة و الملامح الأساسية لتطبيقها في دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي. و مبحث أول بعنوان دوافع فرض ضريبة القيمة المضافة في دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي. ومبحث ثاني بعنوان تأثيرات فرض ضريبة القيمة المضافة ومعوقاتها في دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي. ثم خاتمة ، النتائج، و توصيات Taxes are an important part of economic systems, and they constitute a major source for the state's budget and development programs in developed countries. In oil-producing countries, including the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, financing annual budgets and development programs depends mainly on their revenues from oil exports. The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council have witnessed major transformations due to the successive changes in the oil market and its impact on its prices. This affects the development paths in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, given the importance of oil revenues in their economy, as they are the main financier of their budget, and consequently the rates of growth and investment in other economic sectors in them depend on those revenues, and the lack of serious consideration in the past to taxes as a development and distribution tool, and as a major resource From income sources, it has caused the absence of serious attempts to develop tax policies in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Falling oil prices and associated budgetary pressures in a region where governments derive most of their revenues from the oil and gas sector have increased the trend towards tax reform. Hence, imposing new taxes, especially a value-added tax, in the region, will reduce governments' dependence on declining oil and gas revenues and provide them with an alternative source of sustainable revenue. The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council took a big step to cope with the low price of oil when the finance ministers agreed to impose a value-added tax, which is considered one of the most important economic reforms. Up to 5%, after they agree on a package of other taxes, and the purpose is to introduce an integrated and unified system through which value-added tax is imposed on the import and supply of goods and services at every stage of the manufacturing and distribution chain. This topic will be addressed through an introduction - an introductory topic entitled Value Added Tax and the basic features of its application in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. And a first topic entitled Motives for imposing value-added tax in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. And a second study entitled the effects of imposing value-added tax and its obstacles in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Then a conclusion, results, and recommendations

International audience; The contribution of this paper is threefold: first, it introduces a new geopolitical risk index that incorporates recent geopolitical events ignored in Caldara and Iacoviello (2018)’s index. In addition to war threats and acts, terrorist threats and acts and nuclear threats, the new indicator accounts for global trade tensions, the changing fundamentals of U.S.-China relations, the escalated U.S.-Iran conflict, Saudi Arabia’s uncertainty, Venezuela’s crisis, and OPEC news that rise in response to important OPEC meetings and events connected with OPEC production levels. Second, it addresses how the volatility of six oil prices (the Nigerian Bonny Light, Brent, Dubai, OPEC, Tapis, and WTI) behave when the developed geopolitical risk index unexpectedly changes. Third, it examines whether OPEC maintains a buffer of spare capacity that it uses to respond to potential crises that reduce oil supplies. We show that an increase in the geopolitical risk index is significantly associated with unanticipated oil price changes, though with varying sensitivities. Our findings also reveal that OPEC’s use of spare capacity reduces the reaction of oil price to geopolitical risks but moderately, thus suggesting a limited stabilizing influence on the oil market. The limited amount of spare production capacity leaves the oil market on a knife’s edge as it deals with a host of potential supply disruptions stemming from geopolitical issues.

We comprehensively study the impact of oil market volatility on mutual fund flow. In particular, using an extensive dataset on Saudi Arabia covering virtually all equity funds over 2006-2017, this paper provides the first analysis of the linkages between fund flow and oil market volatility. Our main findings show that investors shift substantially their asset allocation to the equity mutual fund sector in periods of high volatility. Our further evidence suggests that flow to high oil-exposed funds is more sensitive to oil volatility than low oil-exposed funds. This is consistent with investors valuing professional management highly during risky periods in a setting where alternatives to equity investment are limited. Our study provides new evidence for a fast-growing market and reveals important implications for the mutual fund market which helps investors, academics and regulators to better understand the behaviour of this market.

Iran is the world’s fourth largest holder of oil reserves, and the costs of producing Iranian oil are relatively low. The dynamics of oil production has a pronounced cyclical character, and these cycles are set by political factors exogenous for the oil sector. The peak was reached in 1974, and since then Iran’s share in world oil production has declined. The authors show that, in a series of powerful exogenous shocks, unilateral and multilateral sanctions have had a strong negative impact on the dynamics of Iranian oil production. The long-term negative effects of the sanctions significantly outweigh the short-term ones. Crucially, owing to the sanctions, the technological level of the Iranian oil sector remains extremely low. Global energy companies and banks refuse to cooperate with Iranian counterparties because the expanding practice of extraterritorial application of US sanctions has turned Iranian hydrocarbons into a “toxic asset.” The countries of the Asia‒Pacific region that continue to import Iranian oil under the sanctions have become able to establish favorable terms of contracts. Iranian oil is purchased at a price discount for restricted and/or nonconvertible currencies, often in exchange for counterbarter deliveries of goods. With the accelerating race to monetize hydrocarbon reserves and the approaching global peak in oil demand, it is more likely that a significant portion of commercially competitive Iranian oil will remain in the ground.

The article examines the trends in Russia’s positioning on the world oil energy market in the 20thand early 21stcenturies, defines the role of oil in generating oil and gas revenues for the Federal budget of the Russian Federation, and shows the mechanism for filling the budget during tax maneuvers. The reasons for the occurrence of “oil dependence” of the Russianeconomy and the objective need to maintain such a situation during the period of overcoming consequences of the new coronavirus pandemic, that is, in conditions of a general decline in oil demand, are substantiated.In the 1980s, the symptoms of the so-called “Dutch disease” began to appear in the Soviet Union (by analogy with the gas sphere). Light oil money appeared and, despite the fact that in the early 1980s, revenues from oil and gas exports in the USSR budget did not exceed 10%, nevertheless, a decrease in oil prices in the second half of the 1980sled to a well-known economic and then political collapse.This was followed by a reduction in oil production and due to rising oil prices up to USD 140 perbarrel in the beginning of the XXI century, anever greater filling in the export niche of with oil. Finally, the country found itself in a “drug dependence” on the position of Russia and the economic situation on the world oil market.Today, in the context of overcoming the consequences of the new coronavirus pandemic, this should be taken for granted and optimally ensure the preservation of Russia’s competitive positions in the main regions of Russian oil consumption ––Europe and Asia-Pacific countries, mainly in China, India and South Korea,as part of a dominance policy Russia in these regions through increasing exports of oil and petroleum products.

PurposeThis study aims to test the presence of herding behavior in commodity markets, including energy, metals and agriculture. Additionally, the authors investigate the possible asymmetric effect of oil price changes on the herding behavior in these markets.Design/methodology/approachThe authors examine herding based on the cross-sectional absolute deviation (CSAD) model in a static and time-varying perspective.FindingsBy using daily data over the period 2003–2017, the authors’ findings firstly support the dynamic nature of investor behavior in commodity markets, which oscillates between antiherding during the normal period and herding during and after the global financial crisis of 2008. Furthermore, results highlight that the asymmetric impact of oil shocks on herding differs across commodity sectors and periods. Additionally, herding seems to be more pronounced when the oil market declines, which may be due to the pessimistic investors' sentiments.Practical implicationsThis study provides insight into what factors influence herd behavior in commodity markets. The understanding of factors driving herding aids investors to avoid the impact of this behavior and its consequencesOriginality/valueTo the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to examine whether the level of herding depends on the oil price fluctuations, as well as the asymmetric effect of the oil price on herding behavior in commodity markets.

President Xi Jinping defined energy cooperation as the ‘core of cooperation’ between China and Arab states, as he addressed the opening ceremony of China-Arab States Cooperation Forum (CASCF) Minis...

The work is devoted to a review of the results of the 145rd meeting of the Dispute Club “Eco- nomic Policy Knots” of the Association of Russian Economic Think Tanks (hereinafter referred to as ARETT) on the topic "Oil market – when is it up again?". The purpose of the event was to discuss the situation in the oil and oil products market, as well as the prospects for the development of this mar- ket. The disputants were Mikhail Krutikhin, partner of the RusEnergy consulting agency, and Alex- ander Kurdin, Deputy Dean for Science of the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University and head of research in the Department for Energy and Utilities of the Analytical Center for the Govern- ment of the Russian Federation. The review presents the key ideas of the disputants, and also sum- marizes the main results of their answers to questions.

China experienced modern economic growth from 1890 to 1937. The expansion of foreign trade contributed to this economic growth. However, beginning at the end of the nineteenth century, dishonest pr...

We study the effects of releases from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) within the context of fully specified models of the global oil market that explicitly allow for storage demand as well as unanticipated changes in the SPR. We show that historically SPR policy interventions, defined as sequences of exogenous SPR shocks during selected periods, have helped stabilize the price of oil. Their effect on the price of oil, however, has been modest. For example, the cumulative effect of the SPR releases after the invasion of Kuwait in 1990 was a reduction of $2 per barrel in the real price of oil after 7 months. Whereas emergency drawdowns tend to lower the real price of oil, we find that exchanges tend to raise the real price of oil in the long run. We also provide a detailed analysis of the benefits of the 2018 White House proposal to sell off half of the SPR within the next decade. We show that the expected fiscal benefits of this plan are somewhat higher than the revenue of $16.6 billion dollars projected by the White House.

The paper studies the effects of underlying shocks of crude oil price movements on the stability of macroeconomic aggregates in Ghana. We develop a structural vector autoregressive to disentangle the sources that have driven shocks in crude oil market and estimate the effects of the identified shocks on macroeconomic aggregates and on three bilateral exchange rates in Ghana. In addition, we investigate the extent of transmission of the identified shocks on food and non‐food price levels. The findings show that shocks by oil supply and demand‐specific have a significant effect on real GDP. Further, the identified shocks have a weighty effect on the Ghana/Euro bilateral exchange rate. The findings also suggest that all the identified structural shocks have significant effects on food and non‐food inflation. This implies that oil market shocks are detrimental to food and non‐food inflation in Ghana.

In this paper, we investigate the impact of downside risk in the oil market on the expected stock returns in China’s A-share market, and find that downside risk positively influences the expected s...

This work reinvestigates the interrelationship between crude oil prices and stock market returns in Saudi Arabia by taking into account volatility spillovers that are exemplified by second-moment effects. Using weekly data from 2001 to 2018 and time-varying causality-in-mean and causality-in-variance tests and taking into account structural breaks, we model each series as an APARCH process to capture any leverage effects in the volatility of returns. Empirical results suggest the existence of a bidirectional causality relationship between stock and oil performance series. While we fail to document significant spillover effects stemming from the stock market to the oil market, we detected substantial spillover effects running from crude oil price changes to stock market returns. We also find evidence in favor of the presence of risk spillovers between crude oil price and stock market. In this context, unexpected loses in the oil market can be predicted by using sudden past declines in the Saudi Arabian stock market and a substantial increase in the oil price seems to have significant predictive power for a rise in the stock market in the future. These results suggest that government policies must take into account risk spillover effects between markets and that investors are better off monitoring crude oil markets in portfolio allocation decisions.

In this study, we investigate the different spillover levels of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the oil, gold, and stock markets in China. EPU has the highest levels of the growth and volatility spillover on the gold market, and EPU transmits the lowest levels of growth and volatility spillovers to the oil market. EPU receives the highest level of return spillover from the oil market and the lowest from the gold market. However, EPU receives a higher level of the volatility spillover from the gold and stock markets. Regarding growth spillover, EPU is the net spillover receiver from the oil market and the net spillover transmitter to the gold market. Regarding volatility spillover, EPU is a main spillover receiver from all three markets. All net spillovers from EPU to the oil, gold, and stock markets are time‐varying. The recent financial crisis exerts significant effects on the net spillovers of EPU on the three markets.

We contribute to the scarce literature on the oil market volatility index (OVX) by examining the presence of time‐varying jumps in OVX and by assessing the ability of OVX to predict the conditional variance of crude oil returns. Using a GARCH‐jump model, we find evidence that OVX is characterized by jump behaviour that tends to vary over time. Further analysis indicates that accounting for the jump behaviour of OVX helps improve the conditional variance forecasts of crude oil returns. Since the studied features of OVX play a crucial role in asset pricing and risk analyses, our findings have policy implications related to refining volatility prediction models and risk measures.