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Additional file 1: Appendix 1. Overview of the statements and panel scores for every Delphi round.

To develop and validate a clinical prediction model of patient-reported pain and function after undergoing total knee replacement (TKR). We used data of 1,649 patients from the Knee Arthroplasty Trial who received primary TKR across 34 centres in the UK. The external validation included 595 patients from Southampton University Hospital, and Nuffield Orthopaedic Centre (Oxford). The outcome was the Oxford Knee Score (OKS) 12-month after TKR. Pre-operative predictors including patient characteristics and clinical factors were considered. Bootstrap backward linear regression analysis was used. Low pre-operative OKS, living in poor areas, high body mass index, and patient-reported anxiety or depression were associated with worse outcome. The clinical factors associated with worse outcome were worse pre-operative physical status, presence of other conditions affecting mobility and previous knee arthroscopy. Presence of fixed flexion deformity and an absent or damaged pre-operative anterior cruciate ligament (compared with intact) were associated with better outcome. Discrimination and calibration statistics were satisfactory. External validation predicted 21.1% of the variance of outcome. This is the first clinical prediction model for predicting self-reported pain and function 12 months after TKR to be externally validated. It will help to inform to patients regarding expectations of the outcome after knee replacement surgery.

Objective Hip pain and injury as a result of activity can lead to the development of early hip osteoarthritis (OA) in susceptible individuals. Our understanding of the factors that increase susceptibility continues to evolve. The ability to clearly identify individuals (and cohorts) with activity-related hip pain who are at risk of early hip OA is currently lacking. The purpose of this study was to gain expert consensus on which key clinical measures might help predict the risk of early hip OA in individuals presenting with activity-related hip pain. The agreed measures would constitute a standardised approach to initial clinical assessment to help identify these individuals. Methods This Dephi study used online surveys to gain concordance of expert opinion in a structured process of ‘rounds’. In this study, we asked ‘What outcome measures are useful in predicting hip OA in activity-related hip pain?’ The Delphi panel consisted of experts from sport and exercise medicine, orthopaedics, rheumatology, physiotherapy and OA research. Results The study identified key clinical measures in the history, examination and investigations (plain anteroposterior radiograph and femoroacetabular impingement views) that the panel agreed would be useful in predicting future risk of hip OA when assessing activity-related hip pain. The panel also agreed that certain investigations and tests (eg, MR angiography) did not currently have a role in routine assessment. There was a lack of consensus regarding the role of MRI, patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) and certain biomechanical and functional assessments. Conclusions We provide a standardised approach to the clinical assessment of patients with activity-related hip pain. Assessment measures rejected by the Delphi panel were newer, more expensive investigations that currently lack evidence. Assessment measures that did not reach consensus include MRI and PROMs. Their role remains ambiguous and would benefit from further research.

We previously reported an association between high bone mass (HBM) and a bone-forming phenotype of radiographic hip osteoarthritis (OA). As knee and hip OA have distinct risk factors, in this study we aimed to determine (i) whether HBM is also associated with knee OA, and (ii) whether the HBM knee OA phenotype demonstrates a similar pattern of radiographic features to that observed at the hip. HBM cases (defined by DXA BMD Z-scores) from the UK-based HBM study were compared with unaffected family controls and general population controls from the Chingford and Hertfordshire cohort studies. A single blinded observer graded AP weight-bearing knee radiographs for features of OA (Kellgren–Lawrence score, osteophytes, joint space narrowing (JSN), sclerosis) using an atlas. Analyses used logistic regression, adjusting a priori for age and gender, and additionally for BMI as a potential mediator of the HBM–OA association, using Stata v12. 609 HBM knees in 311 cases (mean age 60.8 years, 74% female) and 1937 control knees in 991 controls (63.4 years, 81% female) were analysed. The prevalence of radiographic knee OA, defined as Kellgren–Lawrence grade ≥ 2, was increased in cases (31.5% vs. 20.9%), with age and gender adjusted OR [95% CI] 2.38 [1.81, 3.14], p, Highlights • We examined associations between high bone mass and radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA). • High bone mass cases had an increased prevalence of knee OA compared with controls. • The OA phenotype in high bone mass is characterised by osteophytosis. • Body mass index is a partial mediator of the high bone mass–OA association.

Cam impingement is characterized by abnormal contact between the proximal femur and acetabulum caused by a non-spherical femoral head, known as a cam deformity. A cam deformity is usually quantified by the alpha angle; greater alpha angles substantially increase the risk for osteoarthritis (OA). However, there is no consensus on which alpha angle threshold to use to define the presence of a cam deformity.To determine alpha angle thresholds that define the presence of a cam deformity and a pathological cam deformity based on development of OA.Data from both the prospective CHECK cohort of 1002 individuals (45-65 years) and the prospective population-based Chingford cohort of 1003 women (45-64 years) with respective follow-up times of 5 and 19 years were combined. The alpha angle was measured at baseline on anteroposterior radiographs, from which a threshold for the presence of a cam deformity was determined based on its distribution. Further, a pathological alpha angle threshold was determined based on the highest discriminative ability for development of end-stage OA at follow-up.A definite bimodal distribution of the alpha angle was found in both cohorts with a normal distribution up to 60°, indicating a clear distinction between normal and abnormal alpha angles. A pathological threshold of 78° resulted in the maximum area under the ROC curve.Epidemiological data of two large cohorts shows a bimodal distribution of the alpha angle. Alpha angle thresholds of 60° to define the presence of a cam deformity and 78° for a pathological cam deformity are proposed.

Objectives: To investigate the possible association between vitamin D receptor genotype and bone mineral density in a large group of postmenopausal twins. Design: Cross sectional twin study. Setting: Twin population based in Britain. Subjects: 95 dizygotic (non-identical) pairs of twins and 87 monozygotic (identical) pairs of twins aged 50-69 years, postmenopausal, and free of diseases affecting bone, recruited from a national register of twins and with a media campaign. Main outcome measures: Bone mineral density measured at the hip, lumbar spine, forearm, and for the whole body by dual energy x ray absorptiometry in relation to differences in the vitamin D receptor genotype. Results: At all sites the values of bone density among dizygotic twins were more similar in those of the same vitamin D receptor genotype than in those of differing genotype, and the values in the former were closer to the correlations seen in monozygotic twins. Women with the genotype that made them at risk of osteoporotic fracture had an adjusted bone mineral density that was significantly lower by SD 0.5 to 0.6 at the hip, lumbar spine, and for the whole body. The results could not be explained by differences in age, weight, years since menopause, or use of hormone replacement therapy. Conclusions: The findings that in postmenopausal women in Britain bone density—particularly at the hip and spine—is genetically linked and specifically associated with the vitamin D receptor genotypes should lead to novel approaches to the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis. Key messages Key messages Vitamin D has an important role in the metabolism of calcium and bone, mediated through its receptor Common variants of the vitamin D receptor gene are responsible for 7-10% of the difference in bone density between women after the menopause This genetic marker is important because of its potential role in identifying individual women at increased risk of fracture before menopause and in selecting optimal treatment

Quantitative sensory testing (QST) and questionnaire-based assessments have been used to demonstrate features of neuropathic pain in subjects with musculoskeletal pain. However, their direct relationship has not been investigated in the community. The purpose of this study was to conduct an observational study to describe the characteristics of joint pain and to examine the relationship between QST measures and the PainDETECT Questionnaire (PD-Q).Warm detection, heat pain, and mechanical pain thresholds as well as mechanical pain sensitivity over the sternum were determined and the PD-Q scores were calculated in a cross-sectional study of 462 participants in the Chingford Study. Comparisons were made between subjects with and those without joint pain. Logistic regression modeling was used to describe the association between neuropathic pain features, as determined by the PD-Q score, and each of the QST measures individually, adjusting for age, body mass index, and use of pain-modifying medications.A total of 66.2% of the subjects reported recent joint pain, with a median average pain severity of 5 of 10. There was increased sensitivity to painful stimuli in the group with pain as compared to the pain-free group, and this persisted after stratification by pain-modifying medication use. While only 6.7% of subjects had possible neuropathic pain features and 1.9% likely neuropathic pain features according to the standard PD-Q thresholds, features of neuropathic pain were common and were present in50% of those reporting pain of at least moderate severity. Heat pain thresholds and mechanical pain sensitivity were significantly associated with features of neuropathic pain identified using the PD-Q, with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.88 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.79-0.97; P = 0.011) and an OR of 1.24 (95% CI 1.04-1.48; P = 0.018), respectively.QST measures and the PD-Q identified features of neuropathic pain in subjects in this community-based study, with significant overlap between the findings of the two techniques.

To update evidence for available therapies in the treatment of hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA) and to examine whether research evidence has changed from 31 January 2006 to 31 January 2009.A systematic literature search was undertaken using MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, AMED, Science Citation Index and the Cochrane Library. The quality of studies was assessed. Effect sizes (ESs) and numbers needed to treat were calculated for efficacy. Relative risks, hazard ratios (HRs) or odds ratios were estimated for side effects. Publication bias and heterogeneity were examined. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken to compare the evidence pooled in different years and different qualities. Cumulative meta-analysis was used to examine the stability of evidence.Sixty-four systematic reviews, 266 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and 21 new economic evaluations (EEs) were published between 2006 and 2009. Of 51 treatment modalities, new data on efficacy have been published for more than half (26/39, 67%) of those for which research evidence was available in 2006. Among non-pharmacological therapies, ES for pain relief was unchanged for self-management, education, exercise and acupuncture. However, with new evidence the ES for pain relief for weight reduction reached statistical significance, increasing from 0.13 [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.12, 0.36] in 2006 to 0.20 (95% CI 0.00, 0.39) in 2009. By contrast, the ES for electromagnetic therapy which was large in 2006 (ES=0.77, 95% CI 0.36, 1.17) was no longer significant (ES=0.16, 95% CI -0.08, 0.39). Among pharmacological therapies, the cumulative evidence for the benefits and harms of oral and topical non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, diacerhein and intra-articular (IA) corticosteroid was not greatly changed. The ES for pain relief with acetaminophen diminished numerically, but not significantly, from 0.21 (0.02, 0.41) to 0.14 (0.05, 0.22) and was no longer significant when analysis was restricted to high quality trials (ES=0.10, 95% CI -0.0, 0.23). New evidence for increased risks of hospitalisation due to perforation, peptic ulceration and bleeding with acetaminophen3g/day have been published (HR=1.20, 95% CI 1.03, 1.40). ES for pain relief from IA hyaluronic acid, glucosamine sulphate, chondroitin sulphate and avocado soybean unsponifiables also diminished and there was greater heterogeneity of outcomes and more evidence of publication bias. Among surgical treatments further negative RCTs of lavage/debridement were published and the pooled results demonstrated that benefits from this modality of therapy were no greater than those obtained from placebo.Publication of a large amount of new research evidence has resulted in changes in the calculated risk-benefit ratio for some treatments for OA. Regular updating of research evidence can help to guide best clinical practice.

Crohn's disease is associated with reduced bone density. The power of simple markers of systemic inflammation to identify higher rates of bone loss, in Crohn's disease, is uncertain. This relationship and the role of circulating (peripheral blood) mononuclear cells were investigated in a case-control study.Urinary deoxypyridinoline/creatinine and serum osteocalcin concentrations were compared in male and premenopausal females with "active" Crohn's disease (C-reactive proteinor = 10 and/or erythrocyte sedimentation rateor = 20) (n = 22) and controls with "quiescent" Crohn's disease (C-reactive protein10 and erythrocyte sedimentation rate20) (n = 21). No patients were receiving corticosteroid therapy. Production of tumour necrosis factor-alpha, interferon-gamma and prostaglandin E(2) by peripheral blood mononuclear cells were measured.Active Crohn's disease was associated with a higher deoxypyridinoline/creatinine (P = 0.02) and deoxypyridinoline/creatinine:osteocalcin ratio (P =0.01) compared with quiescent Crohn's disease, but similar osteocalcin (P = 0.24). These were not explained by vitamin D status, dietary intake or nutritional status. However, production of interferon-gamma by concanavalin A-stimulated peripheral blood mononuclear cells was lower in active Crohn's disease (P = 0.02) and correlated negatively with the deoxypyridinoline/creatinine:osteocalcin ratio (r = -0.40, P = 0.004).In Crohn's disease, raised C-reactive protein and erythrocyte sedimentation rate may indicate higher rates of bone loss and, if persistent, the need to assess bone mass even where disease symptoms are mild. This may be partly explained by altered production of interferon-gamma by peripheral blood mononuclear cells.

To examine the association between osteoarthritis (OA), as defined by radiographic evidence and self report, and osteoporotic fractures, falls, and bone loss in a cohort of elderly white women.A cohort of 5,552 elderly women from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures was followed up prospectively for a mean of 7.4 years. Self-reported, physician-diagnosed OA was recorded at interview, and radiologic OA of the hip and hand were defined from pelvis and hand radiographs obtained at baseline by validated techniques. Prevalent and incident vertebral fractures were detected by vertebral morphometry, and data on incident fractures and falls were collected by postcard surveys; fractures were confirmed by radiography. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured on 2 occasions at the hip, lumbar spine, and calcaneus, and rates of bone loss were calculated.Women with radiographic hip OA had a reduced risk of recurrent falls in the first year (relative risk [RR] 0.7, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.5-0.95). However, those with self-reported OA had an increased risk of falls (RR 1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.5). Radiographic hip OA was associated with reduced bone loss in the femoral neck compared with controls (mean +/- SD -0.29+/-0.09%/year versus -0.51+/-0.03%/year; P = 0.018). However, radiographic hip OA showed nonsignificant trends toward increased bone loss at the calcaneus and lumbar spine. There was no significant association between self-reported OA or radiographic hand OA with bone loss. No definition of OA was associated with incident nonvertebral fracture, hip fracture, or vertebral fracture.Despite having increased BMD compared with controls, subjects with OA did not have a significantly reduced risk of osteoporotic fracture, although there was a trend toward a reduced risk of femoral neck fractures in subjects with severe radiographic OA. The failure of the observed increase in BMD to translate into a reduced fracture risk may be due, in part, to the number and type of falls sustained by subjects with OA. Patients with OA should not be considered to be at a lower risk of fracture than the general population. Physicians should be aware that a high BMD in patients with OA may be falsely reassuring.

Although vertebral deformities are known to predict future vertebral deformities, little is known about their ability to predict other osteoporotic fractures. We examined the association between prevalent vertebral deformities and incident osteoporotic fractures in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures, a prospective study of 9704 women aged 65 years and older. Prevalent vertebral deformities were determined morphometrically from spinal radiographs at baseline and incident deformities from repeat spinal radiographs after a mean of 3.7 years. Appendicular fractures were collected by postcard every 4 months for a mean of 8.3 years. During follow-up, 389 women with new vertebral deformities, 464 with hip fractures, and 574 with wrist fractures were identified. Prevalent vertebral deformities were associated with a 5-fold increased risk (relative risk 5.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.4, 6.6) of sustaining a further vertebral deformity; the risk increased dramatically with both the number and severity of the prevalent deformities. Similarly, the risks of hip and any nonvertebral fractures were increased with baseline prevalent deformity, with relative risks of 2.8 (95% CI 2.3, 3.4) and 1.9 (95% CI 1.7, 2.1), respectively. Risk increased with number and severity of deformities. These associations remained significant after adjustment for age and calcaneal bone mineral density (BMD). Although there was a small increased risk of wrist fracture, this was not significant after adjusting for age and BMD. In conclusion, the presence of prevalent morphometrically defined vertebral deformities predicts future vertebral and nonvertebral fractures, including hip but not wrist fractures. Spinal radiographs identifying prevalent vertebral deformities may be a useful additional measurement to classify further a woman's risk of future fracture.