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Hibernation is an important energy- and water-conserving strategy in many endotherms. Global warming is changing species’ phenology and hibernation patterns, but whether such changes are beneficial or harmful depends on the species’ life-history traits, physiology, morphology and behaviour. Nonetheless, large decreases in the duration of hibernation will likely be detrimental to hibernators because they typically must contend with greater energy and water demands, as well as increased interaction with competitors and/or predators. Mechanistic niche models can be used to make strong inferences on such responses by explicitly quantifying the consequences of changed hibernation patterns for energy and water requirements. However, they are rarely applied in this context. Here we developed a general approach to this problem by adapting the endotherm biophysical model of the NicheMapR package. We then used this approach to assess the effect of climate change on the critically endangered mountain pygmy possum (Burramys parvus). Specifically, we contrasted 2010 conditions to two future climate-change scenarios (2°C or 4°C of average warming) for: (i) patterns in the energetic and hydric advantages of hibernation and changes in hibernation; (ii) the consequences of these hibernation changes for the species’ energy and water requirements; and (iii) the areas across southeast Australia that could continue to support hibernation. We project a 11-43% reduction in current hibernation hours for the mountain pygmy possum under climate change. This increase in activity caused the energy and water required for physiological maintenance to rise by 4-21% and 10-34%, respectively. Individuals would need to consume between 77-110% more energy and 48-72% more water annually and if they did not hibernate. This energetic and hydric advantage of hibernation declined with climate change at all four sites. Currently occupied areas and Tasmania were found to be the only areas in Australia suitable for hibernation under a 4° warming scenario. Our results indicate that climate change will have a profound impact on the duration and patterns of hibernation, a key survival strategy, for the mountain pygmy possum. Our framework for analysing changing hibernation patterns provides a new and general way to test the vulnerability and adaptability of endotherms facing global change.

Plant science is critical for humankind as plants form the fundamental basis of society (i.e. food and fibre). Plant biotechnology has been identified as a key research area by the Irish Government, but this research also raises concerns regarding possible risks. As a result, understanding the factors that shape plant biotechnology risk management policy in Ireland is essential to the development of associated policy and regulatory frameworks. The project first explores the background to plant biotechnology and genetic modification (GM). Subsequently, GM policy in Ireland (from 1974 to date) and the European Union (from 1973 to date) is examined and mapped. Key policy periods are identified and investigated. A longitudinal analysis of Irish public attitudes to modern biotechnology from 1996 to 2010 follows. Using both quantitative and qualitative tools, key groups (i.e. university based life scientists and the feed industry) in the innovation value chain are surveyed as to their attitudes regarding modern plant biotechnology. In addition, a content analysis of Irish daily newsprint media articles from 2007 to 2010 is carried out to identify coverage intensity, actors, framing and tone of GM articles. The project also compares the potential ex-ante environmental and agronomic impacts of GM glyphosate tolerant maize cultivation with current Irish maize production as maize provides an important source of animal feed to Irish farmers. The various elements of this project are used to test the hypothesis that the development of Irish plant biotechnology policy corresponds with the punctuated equilibrium theory of policy change. It is indeed demonstrated that in the case of Ireland, punctuated equilibrium is at play, expressed by long periods of stability, punctuated by sudden shifts that are characterized by radical change (mainly driven by political considerations). Based on lessons learned and characteristics that apply when punctuated-type dynamics exist within a policy arena, recommendations are made regarding the future development of policy. These include a more appropriate policy approach that focuses on a comparative analysis of the risks and benefits of a plant trait, rather than on the process by which this trait was obtained, and that assesses risks and benefits in the context of current products and practices.

The breakdown of the woodland and grassland variables.

The breakdown of the woodland and grassland variables.