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We propose a Bayesian, noisy-input, spatial-temporal generalised additive model to examine regional relative sea-level (RSL) changes over time. The model provides probabilistic estimates of component drivers of regional RSL change via the combination of a univariate spline capturing a common regional signal over time, random slopes and intercepts capturing site-specific (local), long-term linear trends and a spatial-temporal spline capturing residual, non-linear, local variations. Proxy and instrumental records of RSL and corresponding measurement errors inform the model and a noisy-input method accounts for proxy temporal uncertainties. Results focus on the decomposition of RSL over the past 3000 years along the Atlantic coast of North America.

Additional file 1. Participant Questionnaire.

Additional file 3: Table S2. Health Service Utilisation in the last 12 months (n=174) a.

Observational oceanographers are integral to the Blue‑Action consortium. The Blue-Action project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 727852. The consortium has provided coordinated feedback in the attached document, with inputs on the following: -Sustainability of Ocean observations; -Planning and sharing: planning of observations, data sharing and compliance with FAIR guidelines; -Maximising the Ocean Data.

Gerard McCarthy IAPSO Early Career medal talk entitled 'Overturning Variability with Observations'

Additional file 1. SPIRIT 2013 Checklist: Recommended items to address in a clinical trial protocol and related documents.

Kick off for Blue Action Project. Overview of Work Package 2 objectives.

RAPID - US AMOC International Science Meeting, Towards a holistic picture of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation : Via observation modelling and synthesis, 21-24 July 2015, Bristol, U.K., Mediterranean Outflow Water spreads into the North Atlantic Ocean below the thermocline, forming a tongue that slowly moves westward until it reaches the North American coast. Meanwhile, Labrador Sea Water formed at high latitudes in the North Atlantic flows southward along the American coast in the Deep Western Boundary Current, and flows on similar density levels as the Mediterranean Outflow Water. The two water masses mix at some point, to jointly cross the Equator in the Deep Western Boundary Current. The question is how and where this mixing happens. In particularly, it is unclear how variability in the strength of formation the two water mass relates and impacts on the southward export of mid-depth water. This is important because, while the two water masses have the same density, they have vastly different temperature and salinity properties. Better knowledge of the mixing processes will allow for an improved understanding of AMOC dynamics. Here, we show results from eddy-resolving models where we track the water flowing from both the southern tip of the Labrador Sea and the Strait of Gibraltar, using virtual Lagrangian particles. We analyse the trajectories of these particles to see where and how the two water masses mix, and reconcile this with information on the modeled and observed salinity field in the North Atlantic. We show what the role of meso-scale eddies is, and how the interaction of the two water masses ultimately sets the thermohaline structure of the mid-depth North Atlantic Ocean

Poster presented at the Understanding Change and Variability in the North Atlantic Climate System, ACSIS - OSNAP - RAPID, Joint Science Meeting, 19-21 September 2017, Oxford, UK.

Overview of Work Package 2 of Blue-Action "Lower latitude drivers of Arctic change"

A novel ocean mixed layer heat budget analysis methodology is developed and used to investigate the physicalprocesses which determine Subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) SST and OHC variability on decadal-multidecadaltimescales using the state-of-the-art coupled climate model HadGEM3-GC2. Contributions to OHC and SSTvariability from three sources are evaluated i) the net ocean-atmosphere heat flux, ii) divergence of the oceanichorizontal temperature transport and iii) entrainment between the ocean surface mixed layer and the layer beneath.Anomalies in OHC and SST tendency propagate anticlockwise around the SPNA on multidecadal timescaleswith a clear relationship to the Phase of the AMOC. AMOC anomalies lead SST tendencies which in turn leadOHC tendencies. This result is common to both eastern and western SPNA, although the primary driver of OHCvariability differs with surface fluxes dominant in the west and advection-diffusion in the east. The reciprocal ofthe mixed layer depth is found to be an important variable which causes SST to respond faster to AMOC changesthan OHC. The implications of these new results for interpretation of lower resolution coupled models, includingmany of those used in the CMIP6 assessment are discussed.

Presentation at the AGU Ocean Sciences Meeting, Portland Oregon, 11-16th February 2018. PL23A: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Modeling and Observations

Presentation at: Blue-Action 2018 Annual Meeting, 19th January 2018, Bologna, Italy

The North Atlantic is notable for large decadal variability in sea surface temperature (SST) manifested as Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV). Whether the AMV is driven by external atmospheric or internal oceanic influences is an oft-disputed point. Long time series of atmospheric and ocean variables, in particular long timeseries of Gulf Stream position, reveal differing drivers of SST variability on quasi- and multi-decadal timescales. On quasi-decadal timescales an oscillatory signal identified in the North Atlantic Oscillation controls SST evolution directly via air-sea heat uxes. However, on multi-decadal timescales this relationship with SST changes, while remaining consistent in phase. and resonant in amplitude with Gulf Stream position. A recent reversal of the long term positive trend in Gulf Stream position coincides with a weakening and broadening in the Gulf Stream Extension indicating the onset of an AMV decline.

Presentation at: ACSIS Ocean-Ice Theme Science Day, 27th April, National Oceanography Centre, UK.

List of the presentations included in this collection: Welcome (Gerard McCarthy, NUIM) Introduction to the observing arrays NOAC (Martin Moritz, BSH) Greenland-Scotland Ridge (Berit Rabe, MSS) Observing the Slope Current The European Slope Current (Martin White, NUIG) Observing and Understanding the Slope Current (Marie Porter and Neil Fraser, SAMS) Decadal predictions (Andre Duesterhus, NUIM) Modelling in the Eastern Subpolar Gyre Modelling the Slope Current (Bob Marsh, Univ. Southampton) Nested models on the shelf (Tomasz Dubrowski, Irish Marine Institute), Blue-Action and Atlas have received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements No 727852 (Blue-Action) and No 678760 (ATLAS). A4 (Aigéin, Aeráid, agus athrú Atlantaigh) is funded by the Marine Institute and the European Regional Development fund (grant: PBA/CC/18/01)

Presentation at: Understanding Change and Variability in the North Atlantic Climate System, ACSIS - OSNAP - RAPID Joint Science Meeting,19-21 September 2017, Oxford, UK.

A novel ocean mixed layer heat budget analysis methodology is developed and used to investigate the physicalprocesses which determine Subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) SST and OHC variability on decadal-multidecadaltimescales using the state-of-the-art coupled climate model HadGEM3-GC2. Contributions to OHC and SSTvariability from three sources are evaluated i) the net ocean-atmosphere heat flux, ii) divergence of the oceanichorizontal temperature transport and iii) entrainment between the ocean surface mixed layer and the layer beneath.Anomalies in OHC and SST tendency propagate anticlockwise around the SPNA on multidecadal timescaleswith a clear relationship to the Phase of the AMOC. AMOC anomalies lead SST tendencies which in turn leadOHC tendencies. This result is common to both eastern and western SPNA, although the primary driver of OHCvariability differs with surface fluxes dominant in the west and advection-diffusion in the east. The reciprocal ofthe mixed layer depth is found to be an important variable which causes SST to respond faster to AMOC changesthan OHC. The implications of these new results for interpretation of lower resolution coupled models, includingmany of those used in the CMIP6 assessment are discussed.

Presentation at: Understanding Change and Variability in the North Atlantic Climate System, ACSIS - OSNAP - RAPID Joint Science Meeting,19-21 September 2017, Oxford, UK.

Poster presented at the Understanding Change and Variability in the North Atlantic Climate System, ACSIS - OSNAP - RAPID, Joint Science Meeting, 19-21 September 2017, Oxford, UK.

Presentation describing Comparison of sea-level based ocean circulation indices

Presentation at: ACSIS Ocean-Ice Theme Science Day, 27th April, National Oceanography Centre, UK. &nbsp

Presentation at: Blue-Action 2018 Annual Meeting, 19th January 2018, Bologna, Italy

A novel ocean mixed layer heat budget analysis methodology is developed and used to investigate the physicalprocesses which determine Subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) SST and OHC variability on decadal-multidecadaltimescales using the state-of-the-art coupled climate model HadGEM3-GC2. Contributions to OHC and SSTvariability from three sources are evaluated i) the net ocean-atmosphere heat flux, ii) divergence of the oceanichorizontal temperature transport and iii) entrainment between the ocean surface mixed layer and the layer beneath.Anomalies in OHC and SST tendency propagate anticlockwise around the SPNA on multidecadal timescaleswith a clear relationship to the Phase of the AMOC. AMOC anomalies lead SST tendencies which in turn leadOHC tendencies. This result is common to both eastern and western SPNA, although the primary driver of OHCvariability differs with surface fluxes dominant in the west and advection-diffusion in the east. The reciprocal ofthe mixed layer depth is found to be an important variable which causes SST to respond faster to AMOC changesthan OHC. The implications of these new results for interpretation of lower resolution coupled models, includingmany of those used in the CMIP6 assessment are discussed.

Description of heat transport to the Arctic and work done by the Blue Action project, Work Package 2 in the first year.

The North Atlantic is notable for large decadal variability in sea surface temperature (SST) manifested as Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV). Whether the AMV is driven by external atmospheric or internal oceanic influences is an oft-disputed point. Long time series of atmospheric and ocean variables, in particular long timeseries of Gulf Stream position, reveal differing drivers of SST variability on quasi- and multi-decadal timescales. On quasi-decadal timescales an oscillatory signal identified in the North Atlantic Oscillation controls SST evolution directly via air-sea heat uxes. However, on multi-decadal timescales this relationship with SST changes, while remaining consistent in phase. and resonant in amplitude with Gulf Stream position. A recent reversal of the long term positive trend in Gulf Stream position coincides with a weakening and broadening in the Gulf Stream Extension indicating the onset of an AMV decline.

Presentation at: Evaluating climate and Earth System models at the process level. Modelling Workshop, 23-24 May 2017, Brussels.

A novel ocean mixed layer heat budget analysis methodology is developed and used to investigate the physicalprocesses which determine Subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) SST and OHC variability on decadal-multidecadaltimescales using the state-of-the-art coupled climate model HadGEM3-GC2. Contributions to OHC and SSTvariability from three sources are evaluated i) the net ocean-atmosphere heat flux, ii) divergence of the oceanichorizontal temperature transport and iii) entrainment between the ocean surface mixed layer and the layer beneath.Anomalies in OHC and SST tendency propagate anticlockwise around the SPNA on multidecadal timescaleswith a clear relationship to the Phase of the AMOC. AMOC anomalies lead SST tendencies which in turn leadOHC tendencies. This result is common to both eastern and western SPNA, although the primary driver of OHCvariability differs with surface fluxes dominant in the west and advection-diffusion in the east. The reciprocal ofthe mixed layer depth is found to be an important variable which causes SST to respond faster to AMOC changesthan OHC. The implications of these new results for interpretation of lower resolution coupled models, includingmany of those used in the CMIP6 assessment are discussed

Presentation at: Evaluating climate and Earth System models at the process level. Modelling Workshop, 23-24 May 2017, Brussels.

Observational oceanographers are integral to the Blue‑Action consortium. The Blue-Action project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 727852. The consortium has provided coordinated feedback in the attached document, with inputs on the following: -Sustainability of Ocean observations; -Planning and sharing: planning of observations, data sharing and compliance with FAIR guidelines; -Maximising the Ocean Data., The Blue-Action project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 727852

A novel ocean mixed layer heat budget analysis methodology is developed and used to investigate the physicalprocesses which determine Subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) SST and OHC variability on decadal-multidecadaltimescales using the state-of-the-art coupled climate model HadGEM3-GC2. Contributions to OHC and SSTvariability from three sources are evaluated i) the net ocean-atmosphere heat flux, ii) divergence of the oceanichorizontal temperature transport and iii) entrainment between the ocean surface mixed layer and the layer beneath.Anomalies in OHC and SST tendency propagate anticlockwise around the SPNA on multidecadal timescaleswith a clear relationship to the Phase of the AMOC. AMOC anomalies lead SST tendencies which in turn leadOHC tendencies. This result is common to both eastern and western SPNA, although the primary driver of OHCvariability differs with surface fluxes dominant in the west and advection-diffusion in the east. The reciprocal ofthe mixed layer depth is found to be an important variable which causes SST to respond faster to AMOC changesthan OHC. The implications of these new results for interpretation of lower resolution coupled models, includingmany of those used in the CMIP6 assessment are discussed.

Description of heat transport to the Arctic and work done by the Blue Action project, Work Package 2 in the first year.

Presentation describing Comparison of sea-level based ocean circulation indices

Overview of Work Package 2 of Blue-Action "Lower latitude drivers of Arctic change"

Presentation at the AGU Ocean Sciences Meeting, Portland Oregon,11-16th February 2018. PL23A: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Modeling and Observations

List of the presentations included in this collection: Welcome (Gerard McCarthy, NUIM) Introduction to the observing arrays NOAC (Martin Moritz, BSH) Greenland-Scotland Ridge (Berit Rabe, MSS) Observing the Slope Current The European Slope Current (Martin White, NUIG) Observing and Understanding the Slope Current (Marie Porter and Neil Fraser, SAMS) Decadal predictions (Andre Duesterhus, NUIM) Modelling in the Eastern Subpolar Gyre Modelling the Slope Current (Bob Marsh, Univ. Southampton) Nested models on the shelf (Tomasz Dubrowski, Irish Marine Institute)

A novel ocean mixed layer heat budget analysis methodology is developed and used to investigate the physicalprocesses which determine Subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) SST and OHC variability on decadal-multidecadaltimescales using the state-of-the-art coupled climate model HadGEM3-GC2. Contributions to OHC and SSTvariability from three sources are evaluated i) the net ocean-atmosphere heat flux, ii) divergence of the oceanichorizontal temperature transport and iii) entrainment between the ocean surface mixed layer and the layer beneath.Anomalies in OHC and SST tendency propagate anticlockwise around the SPNA on multidecadal timescaleswith a clear relationship to the Phase of the AMOC. AMOC anomalies lead SST tendencies which in turn leadOHC tendencies. This result is common to both eastern and western SPNA, although the primary driver of OHCvariability differs with surface fluxes dominant in the west and advection-diffusion in the east. The reciprocal ofthe mixed layer depth is found to be an important variable which causes SST to respond faster to AMOC changesthan OHC. The implications of these new results for interpretation of lower resolution coupled models, includingmany of those used in the CMIP6 assessment are discussed