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PremiseForecasting how species will respond phenologically to future changes in climate is a major challenge. Many studies have focused on estimating species- and community-wide phenological sensitivities to climate to make such predictions, but sensitivities may vary within species, which could result in divergent phenological responses to climate change.MethodsWe used 743 herbarium specimens of the mountain jewelflower (Streptanthus tortuosus, Brassicaceae) collected over 112 years to investigate whether individuals sampled from relatively warm vs. cool regions differ in their sensitivity to climate and whether this difference has resulted in divergent phenological shifts in response to climate warming.ResultsDuring the past century, individuals sampled from warm regions exhibited a 20-day advancement in flowering date; individuals in cool regions showed no evidence of a shift. We evaluated two potential drivers of these divergent responses: differences between regions in (1) the degree of phenological sensitivity to climate and (2) the magnitude of climate change experienced by plants, or (3) both. Plants sampled from warm regions were more sensitive to temperature-related variables and were subjected to a greater degree of climate warming than those from cool regions; thus our results suggest that the greater temporal shift in flowering date in warm regions is driven by both of these factors.ConclusionsOur results are among the first to demonstrate that species exhibited intraspecific variation in sensitivity to climate and that this variation can contribute to divergent responses to climate change. Future studies attempting to forecast temporal shifts in phenology should consider intraspecific variation.

Adaptation to current and future climates can be constrained by trade-offs between fitness-related traits. Early seedling emergence often enhances plant fitness in seasonal environments, but if earlier emergence in response to seasonal cues is genetically correlated with lower potential to spread emergence among years (i.e., bet-hedging), then this functional trade-off could constrain adaptive evolution. Consequently, selection favoring both earlier within-year emergence and greater spread of emergence among years-as is expected in more arid environments-may constrain adaptive responses to trait value combinations at which a performance gain in either function (i.e., evolving earlier within- or greater among-year emergence) generates a performance loss in the other. All such trait value combinations that cannot be improved for both functions simultaneously are described as Pareto optimal and together constitute the Pareto front. To investigate how this potential emergence timing trade-off might constrain adaptation to increasing aridity, we sourced seeds of two grasses, Stipa pulchra and Bromus diandrus, from multiple maternal lines within populations across an aridity gradient in California and examined their performance in a greenhouse experiment. We monitored emergence and assayed ungerminated seeds for viability to determine seed persistence, a metric of potential among-year emergence spread. In both species, maternal lines with larger fractions of persistent seeds emerged later, indicating a trade-off between within-year emergence speed and potential among-year emergence spread. In both species, populations on the Pareto front for both earlier emergence and larger seed persistence fraction occupied significantly more arid sites than populations off the Pareto front, consistent with the hypothesis that more arid sites impose the strongest selection for earlier within-year emergence and greater among-year emergence spread. Our results provide an example of how evaluating genetically based correlations within populations and applying Pareto optimality among populations can be used to detect evolutionary constraints and adaptation across environmental gradients.

In recent decades, the final frost dates of winter have advanced throughout North America, and many angiosperm taxa have simultaneously advanced their flowering times as the climate has warmed. Phenological advancement may reduce plant fitness, as flowering prior to the final frost date of the winter/spring transition may damage flower buds or open flowers, limiting fruit and seed production. The risk of floral exposure to frost in the recent past and in the future, however, also depends on whether the last day of winter frost is advancing more rapidly, or less rapidly, than the date of onset of flowering in response to climate warming. This study presents the first continental-scale assessment of recent changes in frost risk to floral tissues, using digital records of 475,694 herbarium specimens representing 1,653 angiosperm species collected across North America from 1920 to 2015. For most species, among sites from which they have been collected, dates of last frost have advanced much more rapidly than flowering dates. As a result, frost risk has declined in 66% of sampled species. Moreover, exotic species consistently exhibit lower frost risk than native species, primarily because the former occupy warmer habitats where the annual frost-free period begins earlier. While reducing the probability of exposure to frost has clear benefits for the survival of flower buds and flowers, such phenological advancement may disrupt other ecological processes across North America, including pollination, herbivory, and disease transmission.

●Many angiosperms are hermaphroditic and produce bisexual flowers in which male (pollen export) and female (stigma receptivity) functions are separated temporally. This sequential hermaphroditism may be associated with variation in flower size, color, or pattern, all of which may influence pollinator attraction. In this study, we describe variation in these traits across discrete functional sex stages within and between 225 greenhouse-grown individuals of Clarkia unguiculata (Onagraceae). In addition, to identify the effects of floral phenotype on pollinator attraction in this species, we examine the effects of these floral traits on pollen receipt in ~180 individuals in an experimental field array.●Petal area, ultraviolet (UV)-absorbing nectar guide area, and blue and green mean petal reflectance differ significantly across the functional sex stages of C. unguiculata. Male- and female-phase flowers display significantly different pollinator attraction traits. Petal and UV nectar guide area increase as flowers progress from male phase to female phase, while blue reflectance and green reflectance peak during anther maturation.●In field arrays of C. unguiculata, female-phase flowers with large UV nectar guides receive more pollen than those with small nectar guides, and female-phase flowers with high mean blue reflectance values are more likely to receive pollen than those with low blue reflectance. Female-phase flowers with green mean reflectance values that differ most from background foliage also receive more pollen than those that are more similar to foliage. These findings indicate that components of flower color and pattern influence pollen receipt, independent of other plant attributes that may covary with floral traits. We discuss these results in the context of hypotheses that have been proposed to explain sex-specific floral attraction traits, and we suggest future research that could improve our understanding of sexual dimorphism in sequentially hermaphroditic species and the evolution of features that promote outcrossing.

Premise of the studyWild plant species that require the services of pollen-feeding insects for reliable pollination may evolve features that attract and reward their mutualistic partners. Heterantherous species have been proposed to exhibit a "division of labor" whereby "feeding anthers" (which produce pollen that may be consumed by an insect) are distinguished from "reproductive anthers" (which produce pollen more likely to contribute to reproduction). In some heterantherous species, including Clarkia unguiculata (Onagraceae), these two anther types differ with respect to stamen length, anther size, pollen production, and pollen color.MethodsThe primary goal of this study was to test one component of the "division of labor" hypothesis by comparing the performance of the pollen produced by each type of anther in C. unguiculata. To achieve this goal, under greenhouse conditions, we hand pollinated and assessed pollen performance (using epifluorescence microscopy) within ~228 flowers.Key resultsThe pollen produced by the two anther types differed significantly with respect to both stigma and style penetration. The inner series of anthers produce pollen with higher performance than the outer series of longer, dark red anthers.ConclusionsThese findings contradict previous descriptions of the genus, reporting that the inner diminutive series of anthers in Clarkia produce "abortive and nonfunctional" pollen. We outline the future research required to demonstrate the ecological function of heteranthery in this iconic wildflower group.

Premise of the Study:Predicting the flowering times of angiosperm taxa is a goal of mounting importance in the face of future climate change, with applications not only in plant biology and ecology, but also horticulture, agriculture, and invasive species management. To date, no tool is available to facilitate predictions of flowering phenology using multivariate phenoclimatic models. Such a tool is needed by researchers and other stakeholders who need to predict phenological activity, but are unfamiliar with phenoclimate modeling techniques. PhenoForecaster allows users of any background to conduct species-specific phenological predictions using an intuitive graphical interface and provides an estimate of each prediction's accuracy. Methods and Results:Elastic net regression techniques were used to develop species-specific models capable of predicting the flowering dates of 2320 angiosperm species. Conclusions:PhenoForecaster is the first stand-alone package to make phenological modeling directly accessible to users without the need for in-depth phenological observations.

Shifts in plant sex ratios help plant species to expand upslope in a warmer climate

Premise of the studyOne explanation for the evolution of selfing, the drought escape hypothesis, proposes that self-fertilization may evolve under conditions of intensifying seasonal drought as part of a suite of traits that enable plants to accelerate the completion of their life cycle, thereby escaping late-season drought. Here, we test two fundamental assumptions of this hypothesis in Clarkia xantiana: (1) that a seasonal decline in precipitation causes an increase in drought stress and (2) that this results in changes in physiological performance, reflecting these deteriorating conditions.MethodsWe examined seasonal and interannual variation in abiotic environmental conditions (estimated by ambient temperature, relative humidity, predawn leaf water potentials, and carbon isotope ratios) and physiological traits (photosynthesis, conductance, transpiration, instantaneous water-use efficiency, ascorbate peroxidase and glutathione reductase activities, quantum yield of photosystem II, PSII potential efficiency) in field populations of C. xantiana in 2009 and 2010.Key resultsIn both years, plants experienced intensifying drought across the growing season. Gas exchange rates decreased over the growing season and were lower in 2009 (a relatively dry year) than in 2010, suggesting that the temporal changes from early to late spring were directly linked to the deteriorating environmental conditions.ConclusionsSeasonal declines in transpiration rate may have increased survival by protecting plants from desiccation. Concomitant declines in photosynthetic rate likely reduced the availability of resources for seed production late in the season. Thus, the physiological patterns observed are consistent with the conditions required for the drought escape hypothesis.