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1. Physical and biogeochemical impacts of RCP8.5 scenario in the Peru upwelling system

Author

Vincent Echevin, Manon Gévaudan, Dante Espinoza-Morriberon, Jorge Tam, Olivier Aumont, Dimitri Gutierrez, François Colas, Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Instituto del Mar del Peru (IMARPE), Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ), Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia (UPCH), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), and Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#4.01.00 [https], 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 13. Climate action, RCP8.5 scenario, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Peru, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 14. Life underwater, 01 natural sciences, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

The northern Humboldt current system (NHCS or Peru upwelling system) sustains the world's largest small pelagic fishery. While a nearshore surface cooling has been observed off southern Peru in recent decades, there is still considerable debate on the impact of climate change on the regional ecosystem. This calls for more accurate regional climate projections of the 21st century, using adapted tools such as regional eddy-resolving coupled biophysical models. In this study 3 coarse-grid Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are selected based on their biogeochemical biases upstream of the NHCS and simulations for the so-called business-as-usual RCP8.5 climate scenario are dynamically downscaled at 10 km resolution in the NHCS. The impact of regional climate change on temperature, coastal upwelling, nutrient content, deoxygenation and the planktonic ecosystem is documented. We find that the downscaling approach allows to correct major physical and biogeochemical biases of the ESMs. All regional simulations display a surface warming regardless of the coastal upwelling trends. Contrasted evolutions of the NHCS oxygen minimum zone and enhanced stratification of phytoplankton are found in the coastal region. Whereas trends of downscaled physical parameters are consistent with ESM trends, downscaled biogeochemical trends differ markedly. These results suggest that more realism of the ESMs is needed in the eastern equatorial Pacific to gain robustness in the projection of regional trends in the NHCS.

Published
2020
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2. Current and future socio-ecological vulnerability and adaptation of artisanal fisheries communities in Peru, the case of the Huaura province

Author

Borja G. Reguero, Jorge Tam, Gladis Castillo, Manon Gévaudan, Francisco Ganoza, Carlos Romero, Américo A. Sánchez, and Hans J. Jara

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, Economics and Econometrics, Adaptive capacity, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Fishing, Vulnerability, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, Artisanal fishing, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Aquatic Science, Livelihood, 01 natural sciences, Fishery, Geography, Sustainable management, Vulnerability assessment, Sustainability, 040102 fisheries, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Law, General Environmental Science
Abstract

Marine artisanal fisheries make vital contributions to food security, livelihoods, jobs, and income in coastal communities globally. However, resources vary as a result of changes in oceanographic conditions such as sea surface temperature or wind stress, which impacts communities and also makes them more sensitive to other stressors such as climate change. In Peru, small-scale fisheries are paramount to the country's economy and food security. They are also one of most globally affected by interannual changes and potentially impacted by climate change. Assessing their present and future vulnerability and finding adaptation strategies are key to the sustainability of the sector and the livelihoods of many. This study assesses the local vulnerability in the Huaura province, Peru, where three fishing communities of very different socio-economic characteristics share the same fishing ground. The region is very sensitive to changes associated with El Nino. We assess the ecological and socio-economic vulnerability using governmental and local information, to pinpoint the main drivers of vulnerability. We find stark differences between communities: Carquin shows the greatest dependence on artisanal fishing for income and a low adaptive capacity, whereas Huacho, a larger and more diversified economy, presents greater livelihood alternatives for the artisanal fishermen. The future vulnerability analysis highlights the need to implement adaptation measures, including: economic diversification; forms to add value to the artisanal fishing; sustainable management of fishing grounds; and actions that help manage shocks from interannual variations, such as monitoring and prediction systems, but also financing mechanisms that could attenuate the socio-economic impacts.

Published
2020
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