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Despite an increasing attention on the role of land in meeting countries’ climate pledges under the Paris Agreement, the range of estimates of carbon fluxes from Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) in available databases is very large. A good understanding of the LULUCF data reported by countries under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) – and of the differences with other datasets based on country reported data – is crucial to increase confidence in land-based climate change mitigation efforts. Here we present a new data compilation of LULUCF fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) on managed land, aiming at providing a consolidated view on the subject. Our database builds on a detailed analysis of data from National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (NGHGIs) communicated via a range of country reports to the UNFCCC, which report anthropogenic emissions and removals based on the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) methodology. Specifically, for Annex I countries, data are sourced from annual GHG inventories. For non-Annex I countries, we compiled the most recent and complete information from different sources, including National Communications, Biennial Update Reports, submissions to the REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) framework and Nationally Determined Contributions. The data are disaggregated into fluxes from forest land, deforestation, organic soils and other sources (including non-forest land uses). The CO2 flux database is complemented by information on managed and unmanaged forest area as available in NGHGIs. To ensure completeness of time series, we filled the gaps without altering the levels and trends of the country reported data. Expert judgement was applied in a few cases when data inconsistencies existed. Results indicate a mean net global sink of -1.6 Gt CO2/yr over the period 2000–2020, largely determined by a sink on forest land (-6.4 Gt CO2/yr), followed by source from deforestation (+4.4 Gt CO2/yr) and minor fluxes from organic soils (+0.9 Gt CO2/yr) and other land uses (-0.6 Gt CO2/yr). Furthermore, we compare our NGHGI database with two other sets of country-based data: those included in the UNFCCC GHG data interface, and those based on forest resources data reported by countries to FAO and used as inputs into estimates of GHG emissions in FAOSTAT. The first dataset, once gap-filled as in our study, results in a net global LULUCF sink of -5.4 Gt CO2/yr. The difference with the NGHGI database is in this case mostly explained by more updated and comprehensive data in our compilation for non-Annex I countries. The FAOSTAT GHG dataset instead estimates a net global LULUCF source of +1.1 Gt CO2/yr. In this case, most of the difference to our results is due to a much greater forest sink for non-Annex I countries in the NGHGI database than in FAOSTAT. The difference between these datasets can be mostly explained by a more complete coverage in the NGHGI database, including for non-biomass carbon pools and non-forest land uses, and by different underlying data on forest land. The latter reflects the different scopes of the country reporting to FAO, which focuses on area and biomass, and to UNFCCC, which explicitly focuses on carbon fluxes. Bearing in mind the respective strengths and weaknesses, both our NGHGI database and FAO offer a fundamental, yet incomplete, source of information on carbon-related variables for the scientific and policy communities, including under the Global Stocktake. Overall, while the quality and quantity of the LULUCF data submitted by countries to the UNFCCC significantly improved in recent years, important gaps still remain. Most developing countries still do not explicitly separate managed vs. unmanaged forest land, a few report implausibly high forest sinks, and several report incomplete estimates. With these limits in mind, the NGHGI database presented here represents the most up-to-date and complete compilation of LULUCF data based on country submissions to UNFCCC. Data from this study are openly available via the Zenodo portal (Grassi et al. 2022), at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6390739.

In this study, we investigate the effects of climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development on global forest resources use. The analysis is based on the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), which is a recursive dynamic land-use model. Climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development are included in the model as exogenous parameters taken from the SSP-RCP scenarios, which separate between the shared socioeconomic pathways(“SSPs”) and the representative concentration pathways (“RCPs”). The effect of SSP-RCP scenarios is restricted to factors that are quantitatively documented in the SSP database (economic growth, population growth, bioenergy demand, and carbon prices). Our results indicate that both climate change mitigation and socio-economic development may increase harvest volumes and harvested area considerably in the future. This happens because there are no opportunity costs of using forest area for harvesting in the model. We show that such opportunity costs can be added in the model by considering carbon storage changes between forest types and carbon payments on them. These payments increases woody biomass prices and make woody biomass harvesting for modern bioenergy less profitable mitigation option relative to carbon sequestration in the standing forests. However, the payments do not have much impact on the profitability of woody biomass harvesting for material products and traditional bioenergy. The reason is that energy crops provide a substitute for woody biomass use for modern bioenergy while there are less substitutes available for woody biomass use for material products and traditional bioenergy. Provided that carbon payments can be used as a policy instrument to control impacts of climate change mitigation on harvest volumes and harvested area, an unfavorable future socioeconomic development may cause a greater threat to the world’s forests than climate change mitigation.

Background The contribution of EU forests to climate change mitigation in 2021–2025 is assessed through the Forest Reference Levels (FRLs). The FRL is a projected country-level benchmark of net greenhouse gas emissions against which the future net emissions will be compared. The FRL models the hypothetical development of EU forest carbon sink if the historical management practices were continued, taking into account age dynamics. The Member States’ FRLs have been recently adopted by the European Commission with the delegated Regulation (EU) 2021/268 amending the Regulation (EU) 2018/841. Considering the complexity of interactions between forest growth, management and carbon fluxes, there is a need to understand uncertainties linked to the FRL determination. Results We assessed the methodologies behind the modelled FRLs and evaluated the foreseen impact of continuation of management practices and age dynamics on the near-future EU27 + UK forest carbon sink. Most of the countries implemented robust modelling approaches for simulating management practices and age dynamics within the FRL framework, but faced several challenges in ensuring consistency with historical estimates. We discuss that the projected 16% increase in harvest in 2021–2025 compared to 2000–2009, mostly attributed to age dynamics, is associated to a decline of 18% of forest sink (26% for living biomass only). Conclusions We conclude that the FRL exercise was challenging but improved the modelling capacity and data availability at country scale. The present study contributes to increase the transparency of the implementation of forest-related EU policies and provides evidence-based support to future policy development.

Developing Detailed Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) Narratives for the Global Forest Sector

Sustainable forest management is driving the development of forest decision support systems (DSSs) to include models and methods concerned with climate change, biodiversity and various ecosystem services (ESs). The future development of forest landscapes is very much dependent on how forest owners act and what goes on in the wider world; thus, models are needed that incorporate these aspects. The objective of this study is to assess how nine European state-of-the-art forest DSSs cope with these issues. The assessment focuses on the ability of these DSSs to generate landscape-level scenarios to explore the output of current and alternative forest management models (FMMs) in terms of a range of ESs and the robustness of these FMMs in the face of increased risks and uncertainty. Results show that all DSSs assessed in this study can be used to quantify the impacts of both stand- and landscape-level FMMs on the provision of a range of ESs over a typical planning horizon. DSSs can be used to assess how timber price trends may impact that provision over time. The inclusion of forest owner behavior as reflected by the adoption of specific FMMs seems to be also in the reach of all DSSs. Nevertheless, some DSSs need more data and development of models to estimate the impacts of climate change on biomass production and other ESs. Spatial analysis functionality needs to be further developed for a more accurate assessment of the landscape-level output of ESs from both current and alternative FMMs. European Commission Horizon 2020 Portuguese Science Foundation

Additional file 1. Detailed input data and information sources; detailed assessment results for degree of fulfilment and model adequacy.

Additional file 2. Supplementary figure supporting the harvest-biomass sink assessment results.

Background and Objectives: Under the Paris Agreement, the European Union (EU) sets rules for accounting the greenhouse gas emissions and removals from forest land (FL). According to these rules, the average FL emissions of each member state in 2021&ndash, 2025 (compliance period 1, CP1) and in 2026&ndash, 2030 (compliance period 2, CP2) will be compared to a projected forest reference level (FRL). The FRL is estimated by modelling forest development under fixed forest management practices, based on those observed in 2000&ndash, 2009. In this context, the objective of this study was to estimate the effects of large-scale uptake of alternative forest management models (aFMMs), developed in the ALTERFOR project (Alternative models and robust decision-making for future forest management), on forest harvest and forest carbon sink, considering that the proposed aFMMs are expanded to most of the suitable areas in EU27+UK and Turkey. Methods: We applied the Global Forest Model (G4M) for projecting the harvest and sink with the aFMMs and compared our results to previous FRL projections. The simulations were performed under the condition that the countries should match the harvest levels estimated for their FRLs as closely as possible. A representation of such aFMMs as clearcut, selective logging, shelterwood logging and tree species change was included in G4M. The aFMMs were modeled under four scenarios of spatial allocation and two scenarios of uptake rate. Finally, we compared our results to the business as usual. Results: The introduction of the aFMMs enhanced the forest sink in CP1 and CP2 in all studied regions when compared to the business as usual. Conclusions: Our results suggest that if a balanced mixture of aFMMs is chosen, a similar level of wood harvest can be maintained as in the FRL projection, while at the same time enhancing the forest sink. In particular, a mixture of multifunctional aFMMs, like selective logging and shelterwood, could enhance the carbon sink by up to 21% over the ALTERFOR region while limiting harvest leakages.

Under climate change, the importance of biomass resources is likely to increase and new approaches are needed to analyze future material and energy use of biomass globally and locally. Using Sweden as an example, we present an approach that combines global and national land-use and forest models to analyze impacts of climate change mitigation ambitions on forest management and harvesting in a specific country. National forest impact analyses in Sweden have traditionally focused on supply potential with little reference to international market developments. In this study, we use the global greenhouse gas concentration scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change to estimate global biomass demand and assess potential implications on harvesting and biodiversity in Sweden. The results show that the short-term demand for wood is close to the full harvesting potential in Sweden in all scenarios. Under high bioenergy demand, harvest levels are projected to stay high over a longer time and particularly impact the harvest levels of pulpwood. The area of old forest in the managed landscape may decrease. This study highlights the importance of global scenarios when discussing national-level analysis and pinpoints trade-offs that policy making in Sweden may need to tackle in the near future.

In northern Sweden, the forests are used simultaneously for both timber production and reindeer husbandry. During the winter months, lichen is the most important fodder for reindeer. Forest management operations are generally considered having a negative impact on reindeer husbandry as harvesting and dense stands remove or obscure the ground lichen cover. In this study, we simulate three different scenarios for forest management, differing in the intensity and types of harvest operations. The resulting 100-year scenarios are analyzed with respect to their estimated suitability for providing reindeer pasture areas. Suitability is determined by vegetation type, stand density and stand height. The results indicate that the current trend of a decrease in lichen area will continue if existing forestry practice prevails. Implementing continuous cover forestry as a management alternative and carrying out precommercial thinning could halt the decrease in reindeer pasture area and even lead to a future increase in...

Decision making in forest planning often involves situations, where the value of the stand is dependent on its location or the properties of the stands nearby. Often the most intuitive tool to describe spatial objectives and outcomes is a visual map. However, evaluating and comparing different maps may prove a considerable cognitive burden, especially over large areas and in long-term planning. In this study, we investigate the use of value functions for eliciting spatial preference information from maps. Our case study is part of a project investigating the possibilities of increasing broadleaf-tree-dominated habitats in a northern Swedish landscape. The experts involved in the project evaluated maps showing different fragmentation patterns. Different spatial indices were then calculated for the maps, and expert evaluations were used to sketch value functions describing the preferred fragmentation level. The approach was found to be a quick way of translating spatial preferences into numerical values and conceptualizing the relatively abstract concept of fragmentation in the landscape. Furthermore, the results show that the choice of a certain fragmentation index has a crucial effect on the value function.

In modern forest planning, it is important to account for the value of timber production and for other values of the forest. Important factors such as the protection of biodiversity, recreational use and traditional uses of forests are often connected to specific places in forests, or to the spatial structure of the forests. Moreover, the worth of these factors is often difficult to express in objective terms because they are usually valued based on individual preferences or subjective evaluations of complex situations. The objective of this thesis is to analyze specific issues relating to spatial preferences and test approaches that can be used to value them more accurately in forest planning processes. The individual studies appended to this thesis approach spatial preferences from different perspectives. Paper I identifies some difficulties associated with the consideration of spatial preferences in forest planning processes. Paper II describes the development and testing of a method for eliciting spatial preferences. Papers III and IV concentrate on the design and evaluation of forest plans that account for spatial considerations. In Paper III, different fragmentation indices were used to simulate changes in the distribution of different stand types within a forested region over time. Paper IV uses existing information on the requirements of reindeer husbandry concerning forest management practices to evaluate the consequences of adopting different forest management regimes for reindeer husbandry. The results highlight the importance of being careful when eliciting preferences. Particularly when dealing with spatial preferences, where it can be difficult to accurately represent objectives in numerical terms, oversimplification and misinterpretation of preferences can result in the production of plans with undesirable outcomes. The case studies examined in this thesis provide insights to the tradeoffs that must be made between different objectives. The results presented herein should be useful in increasing the efficiency of the planning process in order to ensure that the selected plans match the decision maker's preferences as closely as possible.

Forest planning in Sweden today translates not only into planning of timber production, but also for the provision of other functions and services. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods provide a way to take also non-monetary values into account in planning. The purpose of this study was to gain experience on how to use a forest decision support system combined with an MCDA tool in practical forestry. We used a new forest planning tool, PlanWise, which includes an integrated MCDA module, PlanEval. Using the software, the decision maker can compare different forest plans and evaluate them against his/her objectives in a structured and analytical manner. The analysis thus provides a ranking of the alternatives based on the individual preferences of the decision maker. PlanEval and the MCDA planning process are described in a case study, where the manager of a forest estate in southwestern Sweden used the program to compare different forest plans made for the estate. In the paper, we analyze possibilities and challenges of this approach and identify problems such as the adherence to formal requirements of MCDA techniques and the difficulty of comparing maps. Possibilities to expedite an MCDA planning process further are also discussed. The findings confirm that integration of an MCDA tool with a forest decision support system is valuable, but requires expert assistance to be successful.