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Introduction Ventilator-associated tracheobronchitis is a condition that occurs prior to the development of ventilator-associated pneumonia among patients who have been intubated. This study aimed to determine the impact of nosocomial tracheobronchitis (NTB) related to new bacteria on the outcome in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Methodology A prospective, observational study was conducted in the department of surgical ICU of a tertiary care hospital between May 2019 and December 2019. All patients ventilated, irrespective of age and gender, were enrolled in the study. Individuals who had nosocomial pneumonia, before or followed by NTB, were excluded. Throughout the study, endotracheal aspirates for quantitative bacterial cultures were obtained routinely on admission, weekly thereafter, and whenever NTB or nosocomial pneumonia was suspected. All data were prospectively collected by the researchers from admission day till discharge or death of the patient. The outcomes of NTB patients were compared with those without NTB. Results A total of 24 patients with NTB and 214 patients without NTB were evaluated. There were a total of 24 patients who were diagnosed with NTB and 214 patients were NTB negative. There was a dominance of the male gender in the NTB group; however, the difference was not significant. The most common complication in patients was renal failure. During hospitalization, the Aspergillus tracheobronchitis (ATB) rate was significantly higher in patients with NTB as compared to patients with no NTB, i.e., 18 (75%) vs. 80 (37.4%) (p < 0.001). The mean length of stay in patients with NTB was significantly greater than the NTB negative group (p < 0.0001). The mortality in the case group was significantly greater than in the NTB negative group, i.e., 66.67% vs. 48.50% (p = 0.03). Conclusion NTB is associated with an increased duration of mechanical ventilation and hospitalization in intensive care units. The mortality rate in the NTB group was considerably higher than in the patients who did not have NTB. Future studies can explore the interventional and management aspect of the disease, such as determining whether early administration of broad-spectrum antibiotics can help improve the prognostic outcome of patients with NTB on mechanical ventilation.

With support from the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), the Center on Contemporary Conflict (CCC) at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) organized the inaugural U.S.-Pakistan Naval Track II Strategic Dialogue on October 17-18, 2016. This two- day dialogue began the engagement of retired senior naval officers from the United States and Pakistan in a candid bilateral strategic dialogue on both long-standing and emerging security challenges in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), especially the changing maritime dynamics in the North Arabian Sea. This dialogue fostered a deeper understanding of Pakistani and American thinking on naval and maritime issues, particularly the implications of the introduction of sea-based nuclear weapons for strategic stability in the region and beyond. During this workshop, senior retired military officers from both countries discussed three broad clusters of issues: Peacetime/Status Quo Issues; Conventional Conflict Issues; and Nuclear Issues. This report is the product of the Center on Contemporary Conflict (CCC) at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS), with support from the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Naval Research Program Report This report is the product of collaboration between the Naval Postgraduate School Center on Contemporary Conflict, the Naval Research Program at the Naval Postgraduate School, and Office of the Chief of Naval Operations’ Strategy and Policy Division (OPNAV N51). Naval Research Program This project was sponsored by the Naval Research Program (Project Number: NPS-N16-N173-A) at the Naval Postgraduate School in support of OPNAV N3/N5. NPS-N16-N173-A

In the literature on nuclear weapons and international security, a strong argument has been made that a norm against the use of nuclear weapons has developed since 1945. This literature rests almost exclusively on observations of the behavior of specific states (Western ones) during a specific time period (the Cold War). However, Western ideas about the usability of nuclear weapons are likely to differ from those of newer, non- Western nuclear weapon states. Social and cultural norms, experiences with nuclear weapons, and regional security dynamics may lead newer nuclear powers to different conclusions about the circumstances under which nuclear use could be contemplated. To assess the existence and strength of the nuclear taboo outside the Western world, this study examined three non-Western cases – India, Iran, and Pakistan – to identify their cultural, social, and experiential differences and determine how these differences influence the countries’ views of the nuclear taboo. The authors found weak support for the nuclear taboo as typically defined in the literature, especially in Pakistan. Nonetheless, they found that some in Iran believe that the use of nuclear weapons would be normatively unacceptable. They also concluded that India and possibly other non-Western countries are likely to avoid using nuclear weapons in a war-fighting capacity, but will continue using them in the same way Western countries have done— as instruments of coercion that carry high but acceptable risks. Naval Research Program Prepared for Topic Sponsor: OPNAV N514; Research POC Mr. Curt Buckles NPS-N16-N173-A

SinR is a transcription factor which controls expression of stress tolerance sin genes related to alternate development processes under stress condition. Identification of genome wide SinR-box motif and their regulated genes has not been worked out yet in Bradyrhizobium japonicum. For this, a weight matrix of 9 bp was developed from the known promoter sequences of Bacillus subtilis, which was then used for genome wide identification of co-regulated genes. The methodology first involves phylogenetic footprinting of SinR regulated genes and then construction of scoring matrix through ‘Consensus’ and confirmation through MEME & D-Matrix tools. Genomic prediction was done through ‘Patser’ program and confirmation through ‘PossumSearch’ program in Linux system. Results showed that all the 371 predicted genes belongs to 9 different functional classes, in which 221 found in operons with more than 80% Sin-box motif similarity. Similar approach can be used in other bacteria to explore hidden genomic regulatory network.

2014 Workshop Report With the sponsorship of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), the Center on Contemporary Conflict (CCC) at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) convened the 2014 Battlefield Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence Strategies: Phase III workshop. This event was a continuation of the professional engagement between former senior military officials and leading security experts from Pakistan, the United States, and the United Kingdom. This Battlefield Nuclear Weapons series of workshops has focused on the implications of the introduction of short-range nuclear weapons, also known as battlefield or tactical nuclear weapons (hereafter referred to as TNW), in South Asia. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The article of record as published may be found at https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/e/9780203709528/chapters/10.4324/9780203709528-15

Published as a contributed paper for "Nuclear Learning in South Asia: The Next Decade" (2014). The sustainability of strategic stability in South Asia remains of the highest importance to U.S. national security policy. The South Asian Nuclear Learning project was accordingly conceived to examine the region’s nuclear experiences after the 1998 tests. The end of the first decade (1998-2008) represented a good starting point. Later, the project expanded to further analyze the nuclear learning curve in the next decade, when security environment and technological innovations undertook major shifts. The National Nuclear Security Administration sponsored this research, which involved selected scholars and experts from Pakistan, India and United States. Some of these contributors also helped shape their state’s nuclear decisions in the earlier period following the nuclear tests.

The selected papers explore a range of factors that have shaped/induced and inhibited nuclear learning in South Asia. Feroz Khan and Ryan Jacobs start the conversation by summarizing the key findings over the five year period of this research project. They explain the divergent learning pathways that India and Pakistan took and analyze proposals to enhance nuclear learning proffered during the round table discussions at the two iterations of the project. Happymon Jacob and Naeem Salik provide theoretical insights into India and Pakistan’s respective nuclear learning experiences. Next, Vipin Narang and Mansoor Ahmed identify technological trends and their impact on security doctrines as well as emphasize the role of political leadership in promoting stability. They also assess the implication of military modernization on strategic stability in the region. Contributing authors Naeem Salik and Sadia Tasleem describe steps Pakistan has taken to develop institutional mechanisms to manage its nuclear capability and tackle the relationship between nuclear learning and doctrinal thinking in Pakistan. Christopher Clary’s chapter traces the differing trends and analyzes the forthcoming challenges in command and control in both India and Pakistan. Following, Ghulam Mujaddid critically analyzes Pakistan’s existing command and control structure and advocates a single joint strategic force command for the future. In her chapter, Manpreet Sethi explains the causes of regional failure on restraint and détente and offers suggestions for improving nuclear arms control and regional confidence building measures. Last, Zafar Jaspal discusses the instability likely to affect in South Asia with the introduction of Ballistic Missile Defense. Both Sethi and Jaspal emphasize the importance of constructive dialogue and ultimately an arms control arrangement to ensure strategic stability. The following chapters are produced as written and researched by the authors and edited for content, brevity, and scholarly convention. The views and content are the authors’ alone and do not represent the official policy of any government, the editors, the Naval Postgraduate School, or the project’s sponsors. This collection of selected papers brings together findings from the Center on Contemporary Conflict’s (CCC) South Asian Nuclear Learning project. With support from the National Nuclear Security Administration, a group of regional scholars from India, Pakistan, and the United States convened in Bangkok, Thailand in 2012 to discuss the concept of nuclear learning and apply it to the regional context of South Asia. Participants presented research findings assessing regional perspectives on nuclear learning, doctrinal developments, command and control setups, deterrence strategies, and approaches towards arms control, and confidence-building measures.

Since India and Pakistan conducted their nuclear tests in 1998, every danger associated with nuclear weapons – proliferation, instability, and terrorism – has been linked to the region. And despite nuclear deterrence and the modernization of nuclear forces, South Asia is a far cry from achieving stability. Indeed, the security situation in South Asia has deteriorated and violent extremism has surged to unprecedentedly high levels. In the past decades, both states have operationalized their nuclear deterrent forces, increased production of fissile material and nuclear delivery means, and developed plans to field a nuclear capable triad. Concurrently, both countries are expanding civilian nuclear facilities in their quests for a cleaner source of energy to combat current and future energy shortages. As tensions and violence in the region have increased, both states blame the other’s policy choices for the scourge of terrorism that has seized the region. New leadership in India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan however, creates an opening to tackle the immediate scourge of violent extremist organizations and unresolved historic conflicts. Ironically the traditional stabilizing force in the region - the United States - is drawing down in Afghanistan and shifting its focus to the Asia-Pacific region and to Russia where new tensions have erupted. Within this security context, India and Pakistan will be left on their own devise mechanisms to mitigate and eliminate the regional risk of terrorism.

A project of the Dudley Knox Library at the Naval Postgraduate School.

In computational molecular biology, gene regulatory binding sites prediction in whole genome remains a challenge for the researchers. Now a days, the genome wide regulatory binding site prediction tools required either direct pattern sequence or weight matrix. Although there are known transcription factor binding sites databases available for genome wide prediction but no tool is available which can construct different weight matrices as per need of user or tools available for large data set scanning by first aligning the input upstream or promoter sequences and than construct the matrices in different level and file format. Considering this, we developed a DNA MATRIX tool for searching putative regulatory binding sites in gene upstream sequences. This tool uses the simple biological rule based heuristic algorithm for weight matrix construction, which can be transformed into different formats after motif alignment and therefore provides the possibility to identify the most potential conserved binding sites in the regulated genes. The user may construct and save specific weight or frequency matrices in different form and file formats based on user based selection of conserved aligned block of short sequences ranges from 6 to 20 base pairs and prior nucleotide frequency before weight scoring., Comment: 3 pages IEEE format, International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security, IJCSIS December 2009, ISSN 1947 5500, http://sites.google.com/site/ijcsis/

Pakistan is passing through an extremely delicate phase in its history. Recent instability in Pakistan, including the Taliban's advance into settled areas, prompted the Pakistani military to undertake large-scale military operations in the Swat Valley. As military and Taliban forces fight in the rugged tribal terrain, several Western analysts have raised concerns about the future of nuclear Pakistan.

This article appeared in Strategic Insights, v.6, issue 10 (October 2005) Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

India and Pakistan have created sizeable ballistic missile forces and are continuing to developand enlarge them. These forces can be both stabilizing (e.g., providing a survivable force for deterrence) and destabilizing (e.g., creating strategic asymmetries). Missile forces will be a factor in bilateral relations for the foreseeable future, so restraint is necessary to curtail their destabilizing effects. Such restraint, however, must develop within an atmosphere of low trust. This report presents a set of political and operational options, both unilateral and bilateral,that decreases tensions, helps rebuild the bilateral relationship, and prepares the ground for future steps in structural arms control. Significant steps, which build on precedents and do not require extensive cooperation, are possible despite strained relations. The approach is made up of three distinct phases: 1) tension reduction measures, 2) confidence building measures, and 3) arms control agreements. The goal of the first phase is to initiate unilateral stepsthat are substantive and decrease tensions, establish missiles as a security topic for bilateral discussion, and set precedents for limited bilateral cooperation. The second phase would build confidence by expanding current bilateral security agreements, formalizing bilateral understandings, and beginning discussion of monitoring procedures. The third phase could include bilateral agreements limiting some characteristics of national missile forces including the cooperative incorporation of monitoring and verification.

Has a new era of detente and stability emerged in South Asia five years after India and Pakistan first openly tested nuclear weapons? In the process, have India and Pakistan effectively demonstrated the value of nuclear weapons in deterring war? Deterrence optimists claim that fear of the ultimate weapon has restrained the otherwise rough actors who have been at each others' throats more often than any other nuclear neighbors in the nuclear age. Empirical evidance also suggests that the region has been spared from major wars, despite recurrent crises during the past two decades. Deterrence pessimists, however, dispute that nuclear weaons have had a stabilizing impact in the region. Indeed, the advent of nuclear weapons has witnessed increased tensions, a growing arms race, and a half-dozen crises nearing war. The region has come close to full blows at least twice since the open 1998 nuclear weapons tests -- in 1999 and 22001/2002--and thrice earlier in the covert nuclear period--in 1984, 1986-1987, and 1989-1990. In fact, the three most recent crises--in 1990, 1999 and 2001-2002--only avoided escalation into a full-scale war because of intense U.S. diplomacy. In fact, it could be argued that the deterrence equation in South Asia now implicitly depends on U.S. intevention. In essence, India's and Pakistan's nuclear politics involve what might be called the "independence-dependence paradox". These two proud countries have attempted to wean themselves from outside support by using nuclear weapons. But this strategy has ironically served to make them more dependent on other powers who are forced to mitigate the consequences of this arms race. No other country has played a more crucial role than the United States.

This article appeared in Strategic Insights (January 2003), v.2 no.1 Focus on South Asia over the past fifty years has primarily remained on the India-Pakistan rivalry and tensions over Kashmir. This dimension overshadowed the effect of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations on the security dynamics of the South-Central Asian region. The historical and cultural dimension of the Afghanistan-Pakistan relation has been and will remain critical in the evolving regional dynamics. Since the events of September 11, 2001 the political landscape of the region has transformed dramatically. Pakistan made a strategic about-face over the Taliban, when her decade old forward policy in Afghanistan became counterproductive to her own national security. A year after the historic Bonn Agreement on December 6, 2001, Afghanistan has now embarked on a journey towards peace and reconstruction after being ravaged by war, bloody coups, and displacement of the society. In June 2002, the Loya Jirga endorsed the leadership of President Hamid Karzai. The interim administration and coalition in Kabul however remains fragile and the potential danger for a return to civil war still remains as Afghanistan undergoes a delicate transition period until 2003. For the past year Afghanistan and Pakistan have been enjoying an unprecedented level of cooperative relations. Will both countries remain on track and for how long? Will Afghanistan and Pakistan destabilize each other this decade? What major changes have now taken place and what steps might be taken to sustain this healthy trend in the future of their relations? This essay analyzes the security dynamics of Afghanistan-Pakistan relations in their historical framework and within the context of the ongoing war on terrorism, with an eye to the future of the region.

This thesis is an observational study that investigates the systemic and domestic obstacles to proposed maritime confidence-building measures (MCBMs) between India and Pakistan. The impediments identified apply to a lack of general cooperation between the South Asian states; however, this thesis leverages prior academic work, which posits that the maritime issues are not only resolvable but may facilitate further momentum to address more contentious disputes. Following the introduction chapter, this study is partitioned into four sections to answer the question: why did the proposed MCBMs not hold between India and Pakistan? First, a thorough overview of the two relevant maritime issues, namely the Sir Creek dispute and the maritime boundary demarcation, are examined in tandem with MCBM progression and the implications left unresolved. Second, the systemic obstacle is argued by investigating 20th-century historical legacies and how they precipitated the social construction and institutionalization of enmity. Third, the domestic obstacle is posited by observing each state’s 21st-century media environments and how the fourth estate may contribute to hostility. Lastly, the conclusion argues for the urgent need for greater MCBMs, given the current maritime volatility in South Asia, and recommends proposals for the United States, India, and Pakistan. Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

In 2019, after decades of peace negotiations between the government of the Philippines (GPH) and Muslim separatist groups, the Philippines launched the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). However, in addition to the Moro separatist groups, clans also play a critical role in the region by dominating the political space. This thesis examines the contentious role of clan politics in the negotiations leading to the creation and implementation of the BARMM. It finds that clan politics contributed to the failure of past peace agreements due to corruption and inter-ethnic and intra-ethnic clan violence, often caused by land disputes and the quest for power and resources. Clan violence is also often associated with private armed groups (PAG). The Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL), used to create the BARMM, addressed many issues related to clan politics. This is evident in the BARMM’s adoption of a parliamentary form of government, establishment of an internal and state audit system for accounting of government resources, and the disarmament of PAGs. However, the BARMM’s success may depend on the sustainment of programs stipulated in the BOL, the complete disarmament of the PAGs and the strengthening of regional and local government institutions. Colonel, Philippine Army Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

China has built or expanded commercial ports along the Indian Ocean littorals for the last two decades. Security analysts view these port investments in the context of China’s increasing naval presence in the Indian Ocean. In particular, Gwadar Port in Pakistan has garnered much attention. While publicized as a purely commercial venture, the port’s dismal performance thus far has led many to speculate whether China is actually building a dual-use facility for PLAN vessels. This thesis investigates these two claims using analytical frameworks to assess Gwadar Port's commercial and dual-use viability. This thesis concludes that Gwadar Port is not an economic gateway or even the most desirable transshipment port in Pakistan. While Gwadar Port appears to be a viable candidate for a dual-use port, it is likely neither the PLAN’s first nor second choice compared to Pakistan’s other naval bases along the Makran Coast. Nevertheless, China appears to have significant influence in Pakistan, indicating that if China eventually chooses to utilize Gwadar Port as a dual-use port, it has significant leverage to gain access. This finding suggests that security analysts are not misguided to be wary of China’s intentions for Gwadar Port and should continue monitoring it, as well as the rest of China’s port infrastructure investments in South Asia, for future indications suggesting a move to enhance their dual-use viability. This thesis provides an analytical framework to do so. Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The U.S. sees China as a potential challenger to the U.S.-led liberal democratic world due to its coercive economic, diplomatic, and military policies and hegemonic designs in Indo-Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. To maintain rule-based order, particularly in Asia Pacific, a democratic India emerged as a key U.S. ally to check the rise of an aggressive hegemon (China) and to safeguard interests of the liberal democratic order due to its democratic stature, burgeoning economy, military potential, aspirations for a great power, and geostrategic location in the Indo-Pacific. A democratic and pluralist India appeared well on course to meet the China challenge as the U.S. and India strategic relationship strengthened over time. However, in 2014, the Indian government transitioned from a secular party to a right-wing Hindu extremist party under Narendra Modi, whose policies are leading India toward polarization and democratic backsliding, which has started to reflect on India's economy and relations with neighbors. Prolonged continuation of such policies, and an India embroiled in domestic issues and conflicts with smaller neighbors will impact the regional peace and stability, and the role of India as net security provider and counterbalance to China in the new great power competition. The paper explores the potential impact of Hindutva-driven policies on the region and challenges posed to the rule-based liberal democratic order. Lieutenant Colonel, Pakistan Army Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

India continues its resolve in developing a sea-based strategic deterrence in the form of nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBN) carrying ballistic missiles. India’s ability to maintain security and stability within the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is increasing as the United States seeks to share its security responsibility. The IOR continues to gain importance within the international order as the stability of the world’s economy depends on the security of these oceans. Rising powers such as China depend heavily upon resources that flow through the IOR and thus have great interest in influencing the security landscape of the region. India, situated in the center of the IOR, is also seeking to achieve great power status through influencing this region of the world. The security situation in this region is also unique in that the three major nations within this region are nuclear powers and have various levels of conflict under the nuclear umbrella. Pakistan and India continue to war over Kashmir and other such partition issues. China and India also have legacy border disputes that occasionally see clashes. This thesis finds that India’s security concerns will not be alleviated with sea-based nuclear weapons. The development of SSBNs will come at the expense of much needed conventional naval modernization, which is more suited for addressing India’s security concerns. Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

After the Global War on Terrorism, the world entered a multipolar system of power distribution due to the resurgence of Russia and the rise of China. In this new system, Asia is at the center of the strategic competition between the three great powers. The United States desires allies in the region that are capable of supporting its global strategy; this desire has caused Washington to become increasingly dissatisfied with Islamabad—a historical ally since the Cold War—which has proven unwilling to support the United States in achieving its objectives. This dynamic explains Washington’s current desire to make India its preferred partner in the region. As the United States grows closer with India, the future of the United States’ relationship with Pakistan is becoming unclear. Therefore, Pakistan has searched for more reliable partners, creating uncertainty among experts, who are divided on how Pakistan will be situated among the great powers in this multipolar system. By examining Pakistan’s past behavior during the Cold War (bipolar power distribution), the Global War on Terrorism (unipolar power distribution), and the present situation (multipolar power distribution), this research concludes that Pakistan will most likely balance the great powers against one another to maximize the benefits it receives to meet its own strategic goals. Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the biggest infrastructure project in the world today. This thesis examines what factors are behind some states being supportive of the BRI and other states pushing back against it. This thesis explored three case studies—Pakistan, Australia, and Mongolia. In each case, the BRI’s economic, cultural, geopolitical, and security implications were investigated. This thesis reveals that countries that gain economic benefits from BRI are mostly supportive of it, though they have misgivings in the geopolitical and security realms. On the other hand, countries, such as Mongolia and Australia, that are prioritizing geopolitical calculations have a tendency to keep strategic ambiguity. Mongolia and Pakistan are especially concerned about the BRI bringing them long-term financial burdens. There are worries about the BRI harming the geopolitical balance and the countries’ relationships with other regional powers. Cultural aspects such Sinophobia among the Mongolian and Australian society are playing a negative role. Overall, this thesis finds that countries respond to China’s BRI based on their own security, economic, cultural, and geopolitical interests. http://archive.org/details/whatfactorsarebe1094564147 Captain, Mongolian Armed Forces Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The threat of nuclear war has been a possibility since the first atomic device was invented during World War II. From the end of World War II through the Cold War period, the greatest risk of nuclear proliferation was between the main superpowers at the time, the United States and the Soviet Union. U.S. nuclear deterrence doctrine promised mutually assured destruction (MAD): if the Soviets were to launch a nuclear missile at the United States, the United States would retaliate in such a way to ensure the annihilation of the Soviet Union. The global economic, social, and political environment has changed since the end of the Cold War; however, the threat of atomic warfare still exists with the emergence of the Democratic People’s Republic of North Korea as a nuclear threat. This thesis explores the question of whether the doctrine developed during the Cold War is still valid: Is the U.S. nuclear strategy sufficient to deter North Korea from attacking the United States and its allies in the East Asian region? In formulating an answer to the question, the author analyzed the motivations, perceptions, and intentions of North Korea’s regime from the country’s formation to present day. While it is clear that the original Cold War MAD doctrine will not work for North Korea, it is recommended that the right combination of MAD elements, conventional forces, UN sanctions, and negotiations will provide a chance for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula to become a reality. http://archive.org/details/nucleardeterrenc1094564088 Civilian, Department of Homeland Security Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Current academic literature is replete with analyses on the return of great power competition due to China’s rise. One area of concern among policy makers has been China’s One Belt and One Road Initiative (BRI) and its impact on global security. This thesis examines India and Pakistan’s reactions to China’s BRI through analysis of political, economic, and geostrategic factors. India’s non-support for the BRI stems from the perception that the BRI poses a direct threat to the rules-based international system and its own aspirations to become the South Asian region’s dominant power. Conversely, Pakistan supports and has actively engaged in the BRI to counter a growing India and to increase its national power to achieve that end. http://archive.org/details/indiapakistanand1094562779 Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

There currently exists a critical consensus that India’s leaders lack a grand strategy to direct internal and external policies. Recent literature focuses increasingly on this issue to address the question of India’s ability to counter China’s rising influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region. This thesis analyzes the ideological and historical factors that have contributed to India’s grand strategy policy-making process. Specifically, the research focuses on two primary schools of strategic thought in India’s rich history: the Indira Doctrine and the Gujral Doctrine. This study builds on George Tanham’s mandala system of strategic thinking, which places India’s spheres of influence into three concentric circles: the core, periphery, and extended neighborhood. Using this analytical framework, this thesis tests the Indira and Gujral Doctrines for their ability to resolve India’s strategic concerns in each sphere of influence. The study concludes that India will not be able to counter China’s influence or project its own global power until strategic issues in the core and periphery are resolved. In light of India’s desire to wield great power, this thesis suggests that India’s leaders draw on the policies found in the Indira and Gujral Doctrines to devise a coherent grand strategy. http://archive.org/details/indiasgrandstrat1094562755 Ensign, United States Navy Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis explores how the Sri Lanka Navy (SLN) can effectively face its maritime security challenges by utilizing available resources and establishing a maritime strategy to ensure peace and stability in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Specifically, the analysis examines security concerns in the IOR, the extra-regional power rivalry between India and China, why sea lines of communication need protection, initiatives to improve maritime security, and why maritime cooperation is important to the SLN. Additionally, this thesis looks at how smaller island nations―Seychelles, Mauritius, New Zealand, and Singapore―have equipped their navies to face the evolving maritime security environment by utilizing available resources. Ultimately, this study recommends Sri Lanka and its navy establish effective security measures by implementing strict maritime laws and drafting bi-lateral agreements with India to counter transnational organized crime. Sri Lanka should also consider implementing joint maritime patrols and a permanent foreign policy in the IOR; maintaining non-aligned status with every nation; building interoperability with sister forces, maritime agencies, foreign navies, and coast guards; and implementing the SLN resources into conventional practices. Finally, based on qualitative research and analysis, this thesis recommends right-sizing the SLN and establishing research and development expertise to utilize Sri Lankan military resources effectively. http://archive.org/details/futuremaritimese1094561216 Outstanding Thesis Captain, Navy, Sri Lanka Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

China portrays the Belt and Road Initiative—an interconnected network of rail lines, oil and gas pipelines, roads, bridges, and port facilities designed to connect China with Central Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe—as an effort aimed at regional economic integration with win-win outcomes for every country involved. The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative, consisting of rail lines, fiber optic cables, power plants, and the Gwadar Port facility. CPEC provides the most tangible infrastructure projects to evaluate. Critics argue that it is a Chinese neocolonial effort to exert Chinese influence and increase Chinese power globally, burdening poor and developing countries with dangerous amounts of debt. Chinese internal and external security concerns, such as violence in Xinjiang and the perceived “Malacca Dilemma,” are also discussed as important drivers for the Belt and Road Initiative and CPEC. This thesis examines both economic and security arguments to address the question: What is the primary driver for China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor? The research shows that security is the primary driver for these projects. Economic considerations and benefits are also important to Chinese leaders, but security considerations trump economic ones. http://archive.org/details/ananalysisofthep1094560362 Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Distinctions between organized crime and new terrorism, as distinguished from old terrorism in cause and effect, have increasingly become blurred. In this context, Sri Lanka has become a vulnerable transshipment hub for transnational organized crime (TOC). This study questions how and why TOC and new terrorism might converge in Sri Lanka and proposes three hypotheses. First, new terrorism often avails itself of the means and methods of organized crime. Second, increasing TOC and the existing ethnic and religious disharmony pose a national security risk in Sri Lanka, increasing its vulnerability to new terrorism. Third, a lack of national strategies have prevented Sri Lanka from harnessing the instruments of national power to the fullest effect. A case study evaluates al Qaeda and Abu Sayyaf Group as potential examples of a TOC-new terrorism nexus. The thesis statistically proves the increasing TOC trends and provides evidence on the emerging roots of Islamic radicalization that might lead to new terrorism. The thesis concludes with several recommendations for the national security of Sri Lanka. http://archive.org/details/transnationalorg1094556778 Colonel, Sri Lanka Army Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Punjab is a strategically and economically important state for India. It shares a border with both Pakistan, a historical rival, and with the state of Kashmir, which is at the center of India's conflict with Pakistan. Punjab is also the breadbasket of India and provides a number of recruits for the military, both of which are essential for food and physical security for an economically rising country. In the 1980s, Punjab experienced a decade-long violent insurgency caused by grievances arising from the unequal distribution of benefits from the Green Revolution. The state's economy has been in decline for the past decade, which, along with a rise in drug use and trade, represents grounds for a crisis that threatens its post-insurgency stability. The unaddressed drug epidemic allows the emerging drug-crime-terror nexus to thrive. However, national and state-level elites and politicians continue to use identity as a mobilization tool for engaging with the population, mirroring the setting that led to the previous insurgency. Specifically, this research provides an insight into the growing possibility of instability in Punjab. This research derives implications for stability in a border state with porous borders experiencing increased drug use. http://archive.org/details/politicaleconomy1094553029 Outstanding Thesis Major, United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

China has focused on improving its image in the world by relying more on its soft power by investing billions of dollars simply to convince the world to accept its rise in the international system. This paper uses both quantitative and qualitative methods in order to grade and assess China’s success with these efforts. While I could not find any significant relationship between China’s tools of soft power and its positive perception building in the international community, I could also not find any significant effect of China’s rise on its negative perception building among the international community. This may, in and of itself, be a significant result. More specifically, the research reveals that many of the ideals held by China significantly clash with existing international norms, that China lacks credibility in the exercise of its public diplomacy, and that China relies too heavily on the attractiveness of its culture. http://archive.org/details/chinassoftpowerc1094547890 Outstanding Thesis Lieutenant Colonel, Pakistan Army Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

It is widely believed that the regional dynamics in South Asia, characterized by power-asymmetry and geographical Indo-centricity, make the region a particularly brittle strategic environment. In that challenging context, this study seeks to determine why regional integration, including the creation of an important role for SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation), has been so difficult in South Asia. The paper asserts that the power asymmetry between India and other South Asian countries has fueled an environment of regional discord, which has adversely affected regionalism in South Asia. The conflictual relationships, most prominent between India and Pakistan, have manifested in a regional mindset that is highly sensitive to state sovereignty and averse to the notion of relinquishing any degree of state sovereignty to a supra-national authority, which the European countries successfully accomplished. Such a mindset has made it difficult for South Asian countries to properly institutionalize the SAARC. The paper concludes that despite the setbacks, the prospects appear positive for regional integration in South Asia. But to achieve any meaningful traction in the integration process, the onus ultimately lies on SAARC members to change their attitudes vis-à-vis each other and soften their respective stances. http://archive.org/details/asymmetricpowerb1094545192 Lieutenant, Colonel, Nepal Army Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The thesis examines the effects of U.S. drone strikes on Pakistan’s politics, internal security, and relationship with the United States. It analyzes the perspectives of the United States and Pakistan within the realm of national interests, legal framework, and ethical aspects, as well as considers short-term benefits and long-term consequences. Whatever the tactical efficacy of drone strikes may be, they have contributed to anti-American feelings and a growing trust deficit between the United States and Pakistan, and adversely affected the actual cause of fighting terrorism. The thesis concludes that drones have not achieved significant success in the war on terror. The attacks have achieved tactical successes at a very heavy cost for Pakistan—and possibly to the detriment of the global war on terror. Drone operations have supplemented terrorist recruitment and resolve, pumped up anti-U.S. feeling in Pakistan and across the globe, and have set up dangerous precedents for countries potentially possessing other countries. The study offers a number of recommendations that are not new, but if followed can promote improvement at every tier. http://archive.org/details/thedronedilemmai1094544660 Lieutenant Colonel, Pakistan Army Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The left-wing insurgency in Peru waged by the Shining Path, or Sendero Luminoso (SL), and the Maoist insurgency in Nepal launched by the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN(M)) have impacted their respective states and societies. Despite similarities in the social, economic, and political grievances in the two states, the insurgencies had dramatically different trajectories and outcomes. The SL leadership did not exploit political opportunities effectively, and when its leader was captured, the SL collapsed. In contrast, the CPN(M) leadership applied pragmatic approaches and exploited political opportunities. The CPN(M) entered into mainstream politics and even won the general election of 2008. This thesis argues that SL leadership developed around a cult of personality, applied a dogmatic military approach, and adopted a violent approach in elimination of class enemies, whereas the CPN(M) leadership style developed around moderate communists, applied progressive ideology, and embraced the grievances of the indigenous people. Whatever the trajectory, insurgencies have demonstrated a potential threat affecting state and society. Furthermore, given that terrorism is transnational and that insurgents engage in terrorist activities, it is imperative for such armed struggles to be ended expeditiously and effectively. This thesis highlights the importance of a political approach as an important means for ending an insurgency successfully. http://archive.org/details/arationaleforout1094544681 Lieutenant Colonel, Nepalese Army Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Since 2001, the West has focused on the insurgency along the Afghan-Pakistani border. The minimal achievements of Pakistans counterinsurgency operations drew U.S. scrutiny. Skeptics accused Pakistan of not being serious about eliminating Islamic militants. Pakistan has opposed, supported, or ignored Islamic militant groups. Both domestic and transnational issues complicate Islamabads decision-making ability. This thesis evaluates to what extent India, Islamic affinity, and Pashtun nationalism shaped Pakistans counterinsurgency strategy. The perceived existential Indian threat creates a security dilemma for the Pakistani military. Pakistan lacks the capacity to fight a two-front war without international assistance. Islamabads instrumental use of Islamic groups to achieve political and strategic objectives allows Islamist to become intertwined with the state. Strategic successes of the military-militant nexus created deep-rooted sympathies toward Islamic militants that make implementing counterinsurgency policies problematic. Fearing Pashtun nationalism, the Pakistan armys deployment in the region was minimal, and instead, Pashtun tribal leaders were unprotected against radical elements. The Mullahs growing strength upset the balance of authority within the tribal governance system. The spread of radical fundamentalism outside the FATA region forced Islamabad to react. http://archive.org/details/militancyinpakis1094517408 Major, United States Marine Corps Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The first military coup of Pakistan in 1958 set up a pattern that continues to show itself four decades later and dominate the government either directly or indirectly. The first military coup of Pakistan also created an institutional path for the subsequent three military coups. The first military coup was due to various factors, not just one that civil military theorists neglect to explain. The British recruitment policy during the pre-partition period had as large a role in creating the setting for the coup as did unequal distribution of resources and geographical location. Pakistani military at the time of partition was professional while the other institutions were weak, which challenges the notion that professional military do not cause coups. The Pakistani military also gained prominence because of the all-around external and internal threats. The powerful military and bureaucratic alliance further delayed the enactment of a constitution and changed seven prime ministers within first eleven years of independence by further discrediting the politicians before the people. All these events provided occasion, opportunity and disposition to the Pakistan army to affect the first coup by General Ayub Khan in 1958. The thesis also evaluates the effects of the first military coup on the present civil-military relations in Pakistan. http://archive.org/details/pakistansfirstmi109456773 Captain, Pakistan Navy

Balochistan, the southwestern province of Pakistan, is taking on increased importance in regional affairs. With the discovery of vast fields of natural gas, along with other valuable minerals, the region is experiencing increased interest from foreign investors and developers. Along with this, the terrain of Balochistan makes it a prime location for the development of roads, railroads and pipelines to connect the Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia. To augment this development, the construction of a deep-water port at Gwadar has the potential of bringing globalization to the region in an exponential manner. In the face of this development and growth are the Baloch whose continued insurgencies have created an unstable environment. Although deterring large-scale growth, interest in the region continues to grow, and with it, the threat of international politics and agendas colliding in a violent manner as Balochistan grows. As such, the strategic importance of Balochistan lies in its potential to either take the forefront in development in South Asia, or be the epicenter of the next large-scale multinational conflict. http://archive.org/details/thestrategicimpo109455699 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Three of the most iconic rulers of Afghanistan are Ahmad Khan Durrani, Abdur Rahman, and Mohammad Zahir Shah. The efforts of Ahmad Khan Durrani and Abdur Rahman were focused on building an Afghan nation and development of a central government authority that possessed some capacity to rule over the Afghan territories. Neither ruler sought to politically include the Afghan population in the affairs of the state beyond the cooperation of the tribal leaders who possessed the ability to commit or withdraw the manpower and resources of their tribes, which were necessary to militarily sustain their respective regimes. It was not until the reign of Mohammad Zahir Shah that central government in Afghanistan attempted to politically include the Afghan population in state affairs. However, this was only accomplished on a limited basis. The international community and President Hamid Karzai have been attempting to implement 220 years of nation-building and central governance development in Afghanistan over the past nine years. If successful, these efforts would create a government and a state that has never before existed in Afghanistan's history. This thesis argues that current efforts should be informed and mindful of the experiences of these three iconic rulers. http://archive.org/details/understandinghis109455103 US Navy (USN) author Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This study explores the Afghan imbroglio from two angles: understanding the peculiar nature of insurgency being faced by the U.S. and NATO, and the ongoing power politics and conflicting interests of Afghanistan's neighbors and other important actors in the conflict. After nine years of a bloody Afghan conflict, which has engulfed the neighboring nuclear armed Pakistan as well, the U.S. is far from achieving its desired objectives in Afghanistan and the region. The U.S. strategy employed, so far, reflects serious deficiencies that encourage the insurgents to regroup for an organized resistance against the world's mightiest military coalition. Two important factors generally ignored by many analysts are: the impact of outstanding regional disputes and politics on the war, and the willingness of important actors in the conflict to help achieve its resolution. Due to the region's geo-strategic significance, major powers have conflicting economic and political interests beyond just fighting al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. By developing a better understanding of the nature of insurgency in Afghanistan and of the broader regional politics, the international community may yet find a respectable solution to an extremely complex situation in Afghanistan, a country surrounded by nuclear-armed rivals. http://archive.org/details/thenatureofinsur109455289 Outstanding Thesis Pakistan Army author Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Pakistan's "other problem," the insurgency of the ethnic Baloch, is threatening to tear the nation apart. It is an old problem with deep wounds both in Islamabad and among the Baloch people. While explanations of this problem vary, they tend to follow two primary theories. One theory, called here the "Islamabad Theory," asserts that the blame for the difficulty between Islamabad and the Baloch lies in the policies and strategies taken by the Pakistani government. A second theory, which this thesis labels the "Baloch Theory," places the blame for the lack of Baloch integration on the culture and capabilities of the Baloch people. Their hierarchical, chief-centered culture, as well as capabilities gained through foreign influences has pushed them away from integration with Islamabad. This thesis evaluates both theories to ascertain which theory more accurately reflects the realities inherent in the Baloch-Islamabad problem. It finds that components of each theory significantly contribute to the problems. In particular, the Sardari system ,as described in the Baloch theory, presents tremendous obstacles for integration. However, after evaluating each theory, this thesis concludes that the Islamabad theory most accurately explains the failure of the Baloch people to integrate into Pakistan. http://archive.org/details/balochislamabadt109455439 USArmy (USA) author Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Since the establishment of the Durand Line in 1893 as the international border between Afghanistan and British India, the frontier areas on the eastern side of the border have not been integrated into the social fabric or political framework of the government. Conventional wisdom views integrating the tribes of the FATA as extremely difficult, if not impossible. The real reason is that neither the British nor subsequent Pakistani administrations committed the appropriate resources or attention to accomplish the task due to a lack of political will. Geopolitical influences and Islamist militants drove the resistance that deemed the effort to integrate the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, an area void of significant natural resources, not worth the cost. The terrorist organizations that Pakistan supported both covertly and overtly in the frontier areas are now uncontrollable and the very instruments intended to promote the national interests of a nuclear armed yet power deficient state pose an existential threat to the government they were intended to serve. Contemporary rhetoric now supports complete integration of the FATA into the writ of the Pakistani Government. The good news for those policy makers that see this as a daunting task is that no government has really tried. http://archive.org/details/tamingfrontiermy109455434 Outstanding Thesis US Marine Corps (USMC) author Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis examines the role of airpower in Counterinsurgency (COIN) in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The direct use of airpower is kinetic application to physically destroy the insurgents; indirect use involves support roles such as transportation, logistics, surveillance and reconnaissance. The former requires near-perfect intelligence and precision strikes to minimize unintended damage; the latter complements information warfare and supports ground mobility. This thesis focuses on how the direct application of airpower affects COIN in Afghanistan and Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Excessive use of sophisticated U.S. airpower and predator strikes has produced undesirable collateral damage, forcing exodus into FATA and complicating the regional situation. The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) operates under operational, technological and cultural constraints. The use of drones in FATA by U.S. drones, conducted without adequate coordination, planning and political sensitivity, added to the trust deficit between crucial allies, making the use of airpower controversial and counterproductive. This thesis concludes that air power produced tactical gains but was strategically costly; it destroyed enemies, but also lost friends in the process. http://archive.org/details/roleofirpowerfor109454705 Pakistan Air Force author. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

India's extremely diverse society has managed to hold together for over 60 years. There are a number of possible explanations for this, but one explanation that is often underappreciated is popular culture, and especially sport. Specifically, cricket has had a number of effects that would appear to have contributed to social cohesion. This study asks the following question: What effects has cricket had on the solidification of the Indian nation-state? This thesis focuses on three of cricket's contributions in particular. First, it finds that cricket served as a catalyst, reflection, and expression of India's independence struggle. Second, cricket provided a central social activity that created shared experiences and memories; and doing so helped represent and meld many ethno-religious sub-cultures into one broader Indian polity. Finally, cricket served as a tool for international diplomacy and as one of India's greatest expressions of national prestige. This study looks at Indian solidification by shining the narrow light of cricket through the prism of Indian nationalism. Thereby providing a small, but important piece to the complex puzzle of what brought India together. http://archive.org/details/cricketscontribu109454838 US Air Force (USAF) author. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis examines the prospects of conflict caused by water scarcity in China, India, and Pakistan. The thesis uses indicators of water tensions including: water quality, water quantity, the management of water, state institutions and national water philosophy. On its own, water shortage will unlikely be the only cause of regional conflict; however, the resource may be one catalyst of conflict or instability in the already fragile region. The indicators studied throughout this thesis continue to deteriorate and are anticipated to reach unacceptable levels by the year 2025. The current water dilemma in Asia increases the likelihood for regional conflict if practical solutions are not obtained. http://archive.org/details/thechinaindiapak109453876 US Navy (USN) author. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis compares two potential energy security strategies in the context of Beijing's perceived vulnerabilities associated with oil imports from Africa and the Arabian Gulf. The first strategy focuses on the diversification of energy import routes through the development of Pakistani and Burmese transnational pipelines. These pipelines would arguably strengthen China's energy security by reducing the ability of foreign powers to threaten China's oil sea-lines-of-communication (SLOCs) from Africa and the Arabian Gulf. The second strategy considers developing a People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) force strength capable of protecting China-bound energy SLOCs in the Indian Ocean. The overall objective of this thesis is to explore and assess the feasibility of these two energy security alternatives to determine what path, if any, proves more attractive to Beijing. As this thesis argues, both strategies prove ineffective at addressing Beijing's energy insecurities in the Indian Ocean. Yet the author submits that Beijing will still pursue these strategies for reasons of economic benefit, political stability, regional development, and national pride. In the end, Beijing's energy security does not result from transnational pipelines or strong naval capabilities, but rather, the ability to act as a responsible player on the global stage. http://archive.org/details/transnationalpip109454124 US Navy (USN) author. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis analyzes the performance of German and U.S.-led PRTs currently deployed in Afghanistan. The major conclusion of this thesis is that the PRTs are limited in their capabilities to significantly reconstruct or bring stability to Afghanistan. Despite their initial success between 2003 and 2005, they are currently unable to address the challenges in Afghanistan. Utilizing systematic case studies this thesis examines the structure, strategy, and experiences of German and U.S.-led PRTs. The assessment focuses on four different performance criteria: capacity building, stability, relationshipbuilding, and aid projects and coordination. Research is based on reports of international organizations such as the United Nations and NATO, as well as on various NGO reports. It is found that the PRTs limitations are not only a consequence of their structural limitations, but also are a result of Afghanistan's dynamic environment, with all its facets and requirements. The main external factors influencing PRTs are Islam, tribal structures, poor governance and a sobering economic situation. This thesis contributes to an advanced understanding of how PRTs function, as well as updating available information on PRTs and Afghanistan. http://archive.org/details/scrutinizingndss109454117 German Army author. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

China's reactions to the U.S.-India nuclear deal and their implications for the United States are presented in this thesis. The 1962 Sino-Indian War and the 1998 Indian Nuclear test were the prime causes of the enduring Sino-Indian rivalries, and differing views from Beijing, New Delhi, and Washington are explored. The U.S.-India Strategic Partnership is briefly covered with emphasis placed on the desired improvements in U.S.- India Civil Nuclear Cooperation. Several Chinese-specific concepts, Beijing's White Paper on arms control, as well as, Beijing's perceptions of threats from Washington and New Delhi are considered before Beijing's perceptions of and reactions to the India deal are investigated. This thesis concludes by analyzing the implications of Chinese reactions to the U.S.-India nuclear deal and offers recommendations for U.S. policy toward Asia. Although the deal has not been formally concluded as of the writing of this thesis, the intent, implications, and reactions are all relevant to policy considerations. http://archive.org/details/chinasreactionst109453041 US Navy (USN) author. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.