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It is well documented that MGAT5 (Glycosyltransferase V) products are over expressed in carcinomas and likely accelerate metastasis by promoting neoangiogenesis. We now report a similar over expression in primary osteoblastic osteogenic sarcoma and demonstrate new intratumoural blood vessels. Expansion of the tumours is by osteoclastic resorption of both trabecular and cortical bone with the latter by cutting channels similar to physiological cutting cones. Osteoclasts, adjacent capillaries, and related mast cells also overexpress MGAT5 products and we speculate that this facilitates neoangiogenesis.

We have studied the impact of primary central conventional chondrosarcoma on the bone tissues (trabecular, endosteal and cortical) of the proximal femur. A combination of macroscopy, contact radiography, histology, lectin histochemistry and immunohistochemistry techniques were employed. The tumours expanded by driving the resorption of bone tissue progressively removing trabecular, endosteal and cortical bone ultimately causing pathological fracture of the latter. Resorption of all tissue types was by osteoclasts invariably accompanied by companion mesenchymal tissue containing capillaries, mononuclear cells and mast cells. There were no new pathological mechanisms in play, rather the usurpation of normal physiological mechanisms of bone tissue remodelling and modelling. Lectin histochemistry showed that osteoclasts, endothelial cells and mast cells expressed GnTase V (MGAT5) which has been implicated in neoangiogenesis. The linkage of osteoclasts and new blood vessels we believe is key to successful bone resorption.

Chondro/osteoclasts and mast cells are cells of interest in the cartilage and bone destruction of joints affected by rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Both are major cellular components of the vascular synovial pannus proliferation characteristic of this disease. Chondroclasts degrade calcified cartilage and osteoclasts degrade bone tissue. Chondroclasts and osteoclasts are identical cell types and differentiate from monocyte precursors. Our studies show a close microanatomical relationship between these cells and new capillary formation (shown by the lectinPsophocarpus tetragonolobus– PTL-11) in the resorption sites of the mineralized tissues. Clast and mast cells express receptors for the lectin lPHA indicating beta1,6-acetylglucosaminal transferase V (GNTase V/MGAT5) activity providing a mechanism for neoangiogenesis. In addition to an angiogenetic function for mast cells it is probable that their products control monocyte differentiation and chondro/osteoclastogenesis.

Lectin staining of benign and malignant cartilage proliferations indicates restricted glycoprofiles and significant differences. In general terms benign lesions show less cellular binding and more matrical binding than malignant lesions. This suggests that in the benign category cells are less metabolically active and the matrix more structurally stable. Chondrosarcoma cells stain with the lectin lPHA indicating increased β1-6 branching linkages in complex N-linked glycans which is also a known feature of carcinoma cells. Increased angiogenesis and increased mast cell numbers are present in the connective tissue septa separating lobules of chondrosarcoma. The blood vessels stain with the lectins PTL-II and lPHA. Mast cells stain with lPHA.β 1-6 linkage is initiated by the Golgi-bound glycosyltransferase GnTase V. Increased β1-6 linkages are believed to enhance the metastatic potential of a malignant cell by angiogenesis. LPHA ligand is present not only in chondrosarcoma cells but also in endothelial cells and mast cells of the septa.The ligand for the lectin PTL-II is a core 1 O-linked glycans produced under the auspices of the galactosyltransferase T synthase. Production of this glycans by endothelial cells is believed to be obligatory for the formation of these cells into tubes as part of the construction of functioning blood vessels.There are, therefore, two candidate genes in chondrosarcoma worthy of further study viz those for GnTase V and T synthase. Targeted disruption of the activities of these genes has therapeutic possibilities.

Both climate scientists and non-scientists (laypeople) attribute extreme weather events to various influences. Laypeople’s attributions for these events are important as these attributions likely influence their views and actions about climate change and extreme events. Research has examined laypeople’s attribution scepticism about climate change in general; however, few climate scientists are familiar with the processes underpinning laypeople’s attributions for individual extreme events. Understanding these lay attributions is important for scientists to communicate their findings to the public. Following a brief summary of the way climate scientists calculate attributions for extreme weather events, we focus on cognitive and motivational processes that underlie laypeople’s attributions for specific events. These include a tendency to prefer single-cause rather than multiple-cause explanations, a discounting of whether possible causes covary with extreme events, a preference for sufficient causes over probabilities, applying prevailing causal narratives, and the influence of motivational factors. For climate scientists and communicators who wish to inform the public about the role of climate change in extreme weather events, these patterns suggest several strategies to explain scientists’ attributions for these events and enhance public engagement with climate change. These strategies include showing more explicitly that extreme weather events reflect multiple causal influences, that climate change is a mechanism that covaries with these events and increases the probability and intensity of many of these events, that human emissions contributing to climate change are controllable, and that misleading communications about weather attributions reflect motivated interests rather than good evidence.

The complexity and scale of problems being tackled by ergonomists is growing. Work and societal systems are becoming increasingly reliant on technology, and the technologies themselves are becoming...

Mast cells and angiogenesis play roles in the synovium of both osteoarthritis and rheumatoid disease but precise mechanisms are unclear. In a study of the glycome of human synovial biopsies from normal, osteoarthritic and rheumatoid disease cases mast cell numbers were increased in both osteoarthritic and rheumatoid disease synovial samples (the latter more than the former). Both mast cells and endothelial cells expressed receptors for the lectinPhaseolus vulgarisleukagglutinin (lPHA). Endothelial cells only expressed receptors forPsophocarpus tetragonolobus(PTL-II). Mast cells and angiogenesis are, therefore, likely to have a common pathogenetic mechanism in osteoarthritis and rheumatoid synovitis, the difference being one of degree. lPHA receptor expression in both mast cells and endothelial cells indicates βl,6N–acetylglucosaminyl (GlcNAc) – transferase V (GnTaseV/MGAT5) activity. This provides a linkage between mast cells and endothelial cell proliferation. Endothelial cells show core 1 O-glycosylation (positive PTL-II staining) which is probably necessary for the formation of competent tubular structures and for continuing vascular integrity.

Perceptual discrimination requires the ability to determine that two stimuli are different. It is well established that neuronal representations in sensory cortices (i.e. the specific neuronal activity patterns evoked by the stimuli) are essential for perceptual choice 1–4. Yet, the general principles by which those representations are compared in sensory systems remain paradoxically elusive. Indeed, the resolution of the neuronal representations is an order of magnitude more precise than the discrimination capabilities of the animals during behavioral tasks 5–9. This large discrepancy between theoretical neural resolution and actual animal discrimination threshold suggests that the integrative mechanisms leading to perceptual decision are computationally limited. To determine those computational constraints, we recorded the activity of layer 2/3 neurons in the primary visual cortex (V1) of mice performing a Go/NoGo orientation discrimination task. We found that two oriented cues were perfectly perceived as distinct when there was no overlap between their neuronal representations. However, at the limit of discriminability, V1 activity stopped encoding for the orientation of the visual stimulus. Instead, we observed a funneling of the V1 activity toward distinct domains of the orientation representation space, likely generated by an orientation-dependent modulation of the neuronal excitability. The relative neuronal activity at those domains provided a probabilistic indication that the stimulus belonged to the Go or NoGo category. Thus, the categorical classification by V1 of the presented stimulus predicts accurately the probabilities of the animals’ perceptual decisions.

Comparatively little is known about the glycome (the set of glycans and glycoconjugates made by the cell, tissue or organism) of bone and cartilage. The glycome has a high-density coding capacity and is important in post-translational modification. Lectin histochemistry provides insights into the glycome and we applied this technique to an ectopic ossification site in human bronchial cartilages.Our results show that cartilage matrix at the site of erosion by chondroclasts has a limited but definite glycoprofile. In contrast, bone matrix does not express many lectin ligands. Chondroclasts have an extensive glycoprofile similar to that of, but not identical to, osteoclasts. N and O glycans are both expressed in the zone of presumptive mineralization and are relevant to that process. Bone trabecular lining cells communicate with osteocytes via intracanalicular processes and some lectin ligands were expressed by these three components.Mast cells and angiogenesis were prominent. Since cartilage normally resists vascular penetration by the secretion of antiangiogenesis factors it is postulated that the hypertrophic chondrocytes in the mineralization zone produce proteases which inhibit antiangiogenesis and facilitate angiogenesis by mast cells.

While the burden of injury is large, injury does not feature on most people’s list of global grand challenges—climate change, equity, ageing, racism, human rights, poverty, COVID-19. Each person’s ‘grand challenge list’ is different. What is yours? Does injury feature? As an injury prevention researcher, how do I make sense of a list of global grand challenges that does not include injury? As a practitioner, how can I achieve influence in a world that does not recognise injury as an important problem? There has been a tendency to explain the importance of injury prevention by highlighting the burden of injury then fragment the overall problem into its components (road safety, falls, drowning, etc) before developing countermeasures to address the burden. Rather …

The contemporary public health model for injury and violence prevention is a four-step process, which has been difficult to fully actualize in real-world contexts. This difficulty results from challenges in bridging science to practice and developing and applying population-level approaches. Prevention programmes and policies are embedded within and impacted by a range of system-level factors, which must be considered and actively managed when addressing complex public health challenges involving multiple sectors and stakeholders. To address these concerns, a systemic approach to population-level injury and violence prevention is being developed and explored by the Division of Analysis, Research, and Practice Integration in the National Center for Injury Prevention and Control at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This article makes the case for and provides a high-level overview of this systemic approach, its various components, and how it is being applied in one governmental unit.

Primary objective: People often misattribute stroke survivors' symptoms to other causes such as their personality, especially when the survivors are young. As a result, these stroke survivors experience feelings of resentment towards and from their acquaintances, and may struggle to retain employment. This study aimed to clarify how people's misattributions for stroke symptoms were affected by varying information about the stroke. Methods: Experiment 1 examined whether the stroke survivor's age (72, 32 or unstated) and the information about the person's stroke (no information, explicit stroke or implied stroke) influenced participants' causal attributions for the stroke survivor's four ambiguous symptoms, such as fatigue. Experiment 2 examined the effect of the rapidity (a week or a year) with which the symptoms appeared. Results: When the scenario explicitly referred to stroke, participants attributed the ambiguous symptoms more to stroke, whereas when it did not mention stroke, participants attributed these symptoms more to other factors. When stroke was merely implied by reference to unilateral paralysis, participants rated stroke the best explanation when the target person was 72 but not when he was 32. Experiment 2 showed that stating that the symptoms happened rapidly heightened attributions to stroke in the 72-year-old but not the 32-year-old. Conclusions: These findings show how different information about stroke survivors affect people's attributions for survivors' behaviour; this has important implications for accurate diagnosis and effective rehabilitation that targets these attributions.

Background: Treatment with sacubitril-valsartan reduces mortality and heart failure (HF) events in HF with reduced ejection fraction and may reduce HF hospitalization in women with HF with preserved ejection fraction. Methods: EVALUATE-HF randomized 464 participants (109 women) with HF with reduced ejection fraction to sacubitril-valsartan or enalapril for 12 weeks. Documented left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤0.40 within the prior 12 months was required, although core laboratory LVEF>0.40 was permitted. Assessments of aortic stiffness (pulse pressure and characteristic impedance, Z c ) were performed at baseline and at trough and 4 hours postdose at weeks 4 and 12. Results: In models of change from baseline adjusted for baseline value, treatment with sacubitril-valsartan produced greater overall reductions in mean arterial pressure (treatment group difference, −3.0±0.8 mm Hg, P P c were greater in the sacubitril-valsartan group (−16±6 dyne×second/cm 5 , P =0.012). Post hoc analyses found evidence of effect modification by LVEF (interaction P =0.036). With LVEFc were greater in the sacubitril-valsartan group (trough, −3±8 dyne×second/cm 5 versus post-dose, −17±8 dyne×second/cm 5 ; interaction P =0.024) with no sex difference (treatment×sex interaction, P =0.3). With LVEF≥0.40, treatment with sacubitril-valsartan was associated with greater overall reductions in Z c in women (women, −80±21 dyne×second/cm 5 versus men, −20±13 dyne×second/cm 5 ; interaction P =0.019). Conclusions: In prespecified analyses that include pre- and postdose assessments at 4 and 12 weeks, treatment with sacubitril-valsartan was associated with greater postdose reductions in aortic Z c . In a post hoc analysis, sacubitril-valsartan was associated with sustained reductions in Z c in women with LVEF≥0.40. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique Identifier: NCT02874794.

The so-called 'fatal five' behaviours (drink and drug driving, distraction and inattention, speeding, fatigue, and failure to wear a seat belt) are known to be the major behavioural contributory factors to road trauma. However, little is known about the factors that lead to drivers engaging in each behaviour. This article presents the findings from a study which collected and analysed data on the factors that lead to drivers engaging in each behaviour. The study involved a survey of drivers' perceptions of the causes of each behaviour and a subject matter expert workshop to gain the views of road safety experts. The results were mapped onto a systems ergonomics model of the road transport system in Queensland, Australia, to show where in the system the factors reside. In addition to well-known factors relating to drivers' knowledge, experience and personality, additional factors at the higher levels of the road transport system related to road safety policy, transport system design, road rules and regulations, and societal issues were identified. It is concluded that the fatal five behaviours have a web of interacting contributory factors underpinning them and are systems problems rather than driver-centric problems. The implications for road safety interventions are discussed.

We investigated responses to the 2013 Cook Strait earthquake sequence, New Zealand. This included two foreshocks (M5.7 and M5.8) and a mainshock doublet pair: M6.5 Cook Strait (CS) earthquake on 21st July and M6.6 Lake Grassmere (LG) earthquake on Friday 16th August. We examined relationships between preparedness, experience and beliefs during the earthquakes, as well as concern and subsequent preparedness actions. Results indicate that earthquake characteristics (e.g., time, location) influence the types of preparedness actions. While there was a reduction in new actions from the first mainshock doublet earthquake (CS) to the second (LG), there were a large number of participants who reviewed or revisited their prior actions, related to their beliefs about impacts, in a form of problem-focused targeted action. Females took more actions than did males, and had a higher rate of immediate aftershock concern. For all participants, concern was greater after the CS earthquake than after the full earthquake sequence, supporting the findings of McClure et al. (2016) that there is a limited window after an event to maximise the opportunity for effective preparedness initiatives. Findings additionally suggest that such post-earthquake preparedness initiatives should consider the impacts that elicited the highest rate of concern in an event, and should tailor messages towards them. While this earthquake sequence resulted in low levels of impact and damage, it presents interesting findings regarding how disruption (in lieu of major damage) influences earthquake preparedness actions, which is particularly important to understand in highly active regions often exposed to smaller impact events.

Bismaleimide (BMI) resins are gaining popularity as matrix materials in carbon fiber composites, especially in high temperature applications, due to their very high glass transition temperatures. Extended elevated temperature exposure can cause a decrease in the matrix dominated properties of BMI-matrix composites due to thermal damage mechanisms that can be chemical (crosslinking, oxidation) or physical (microcracking, delamination) in nature. The chemical damage begins at lower thermal exposures than the physical damage; however standard ultrasonic testing (UT) techniques detect only the physical damage, which is not apparent until a significant loss in matrix dominated properties, such as shear strength, have already occurred. In this study, a thermal damage detection method using a handheld Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer to detect chemical changes caused by thermal exposure of Solvay 5250-4/IM7 BMI composite laminates was investigated. Infrared spectra were collected from samples with varying levels of thermal exposure. The spectra were analyzed using multivariate analysis techniques. The FTIR measurements were combined with mechanical property changes measured using short beam strength testing (ASTM D2344-16 ) to develop a model which identified the onset and extent of damage by predicting the change in interlaminar shear strength based on IR spectral changes. We compare our model's performance to ultrasonic inspection as a method for identifying the onset of thermal damage. The FTIR based method detected statistically significant decreases in interlaminar shear strength at thermal exposures well below those causing UT-detectable damage.

Although many countries have legislation requiring strengthening of earthquake prone buildings, there are significant obstacles to retrofitting these buildings to make them more resilient. This research examines actions in regard to earthquake prone commercial and public buildings in Wellington and checks on private homes following the 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquakes and the 2013 Seddon/Cook Strait earthquakes. The study obtained data on commercial and public buildings removed from the Wellington City Council Earthquake-prone Buildings List (EQPB List) from 2012 to 2016 due to various mitigation actions (e.g., demolition and strengthening). The study also obtained rates of self-initiated voluntary Quakecheck home assessments for the same period. Results indicate ongoing removal of significant numbers of buildings from the EQPB List in this period, with strengthening being the most frequent action. This finding suggests that despite real obstacles, various incentives including legislation are leading to consistent earthquake preparation over time, often before the legislative deadline. In contrast with the EQPB data, the Quakecheck data indicate a sharp but short-lived spike after the Seddon / Cook Strait earthquakes. As a marker of self-initiated mitigation action, this brief spike suggests that in the absence of relevant legislation or insurance incentives, citizens’ actions are only briefly influenced by the experience of an earthquake. These contrasting findings for EQPBs and Quakechecks suggest the value of legislation to drive mitigation actions for all buildings.

People tolerate different levels of risk owing to a variety of hazards. Previous research shows that the psychometric properties of hazards predict people's tolerance of them. However, this work has not taken into account events such as earthquakes. The present study tested how earthquakes score vis-à-vis risk properties and risk tolerance as compared to five other familiar hazards. Participants from Wellington, New Zealand (N=139) rated these six hazards using measures of risk characteristics and risk tolerance. Participants demonstrated different levels of risk tolerance for the different hazards and viewed earthquakes as having similar risk features to nuclear power. They also preferred different risk mitigation strategies for earthquakes (more government funding) to the other five hazards (stronger legislation). In addition, earthquake risk tolerance was predicted by different risk characteristics than the other five hazards. These findings will help risk communicators in identifying which risk characteristics to target to influence citizens' risk tolerance.

Social norms have been successfully applied in health promotion and environmental conservation, but their potential for encouraging natural hazard preparation is relatively untested. This research extends the focus theory of normative conduct to natural hazards and cognitive-behavioral outcomes by examining whether focusing individuals on descriptive and injunctive norms increases their support for earthquake-strengthening legislation in a seismically active city: Wellington, New Zealand. In a large community sample ( N = 690), the injunctive norm condition increased support for the legislation compared with the control, whereas the descriptive norm condition did not. In contrast, the descriptive norm condition raised judgments of the feasibility of the strengthening work compared with the control, whereas the injunctive norm condition did not. These findings support previous research demonstrating the differing effects of descriptive and injunctive forms of normative information, and suggest that using both in the same communication is the best strategy for enhancing support for earthquake-strengthening legislation.

With visible disabilities, observers tend to overgeneralise from the disability. In contrast, with invisible disabilities such as traumatic brain injury and stroke, observers often fail to allow for challenges resulting from the disability. Persons who have suffered a stroke claim that people misunderstand their symptoms and stigmatise them as a result of these symptoms. This misunderstanding, which happens particularly with young survivors of stroke, may reflect people's causal attributions for symptoms that follow a stroke. Using a scenario design, this cross-sectional study examined whether people attribute ambiguous symptoms that may result from stroke to other causes (the stroke survivor's personality and age) and whether these attributions reflect the age of the stroke survivor. Participants (N = 120) read scenarios describing a male who was aged either 22, 72, or whose age was unstated and who showed four symptom changes: fatigue, depression, irritability and reduced friendships. For each symptom change, participants rated three causal attributions: the person's age, his personality and stroke. The age of the person in the scenario affected attributions; when the person in the scenario was 22, participants attributed his symptoms significantly more to his personality than to his age or stroke, whereas when he was 72, participants attributed his symptoms more to his age than to his personality or stroke and when his age was unstated, they attributed his symptoms equally to age, stroke and personality. Because misattributions for stroke symptoms hinder rehabilitation, therapy can target people's misattributions to enhance rehabilitation for survivors of stroke.

This study aimed to investigate the factors associated with the choice of trains over other means of suicide. We performed a case-control study using data on all suicides in Victoria, Australia between 2009 and 2012. Cases were those who died by rail suicide and controls were those who died by suicide by any other means. A logistic regression model was used to estimate the association between the choice of trains and a range of individual-level and neighbourhood-level factors. Individuals who were never married had double odds of using trains compared to individuals who were married. Those from areas with a higher proportion of people who travel to work by train also had greater odds of dying by railway suicide compared to those from areas with a relatively lower proportion of people who travel to work by train. Prevention efforts should consider limiting access to the railways and other evidence-based suicide prevention activities.

Surface tumours of bone may be a cause of confusion and diagnostic difficulty. Confusion may arise from the several descriptive adjectives used – parosteal, periosteal and juxtacortical. Diagnostic difficulties may arise from the lack of awareness of less common entities, insufficient biopsy sampling and a failure to understand the precise relationship of a lesion and the bone surface. In this review we define and classify the important lesions and indicate imaging, macroscopic and microscopic features which are useful for diagnosis.

There is an ever-increasing need for school psychology training programs to demonstrate their ability to produce competent practitioners. One method of addressing this need is through the assessment of self-efficacy. However, little research on self-efficacy in school psychology exists likely due to the lack of a psychometrically sound measure of this construct. To address this gap, we examined the construct validity of the Huber Inventory of Self-Efficacy for School Psychologists Research Version (HIS-SP-RV), a preexisting measure of self-efficacy, with a sample of 520 school psychology graduate students. Results suggest that the HIS-SP-RV is not a valid measure of trainee self-efficacy. We then created and conducted a psychometric evaluation of a shortened measure, the Huber Inventory of Trainee Self-Efficacy (HITS). Results supported the validity of a five-factor model. Implications for the use of the HITS for program evaluation, to improve trainee competence, and for future research are discussed.

Objective An average of 91 people in the United States die every day from an opioid-related overdose (including prescription opioids and heroin). The direct dispensing of opioids from health care practitioner offices has been linked to opioid-related harms. The objective of this study is to describe the changing nature of the volume of this type of prescribing at the state level. Methods This descriptive study examines the distribution of opioids by practitioners using 1999-2015 Automation of Reports and Consolidated Orders System data. Analyses were restricted to opioids distributed to practitioners. Amount distributed (morphine milligram equivalents [MMEs]) and number of practitioners are presented. Results Patterns of distribution to practitioners and the number of practitioners varied markedly by state and changed dramatically over time. Comparing 1999 with 2015, the MME distributed to dispensing practitioners decreased in 16 states and increased in 35. Most notable was the change in Florida, which saw a peak of 8.94 MMEs per 100,000 persons in 2010 (the highest distribution in all states in all years) and a low of 0.08 in 2013. Discussion This study presents the first state estimates of office-based dispensing of opioids. Increases in direct dispensing in recent years may indicate a need to monitor this practice and consider whether changes are needed. Using controlled substances data to identify high prescribers and dispensers of opioids, as well as examining overall state trends, is a foundational activity to informing the response to potentially high-risk clinical practices.

In its modern form, injury prevention is about 60 years old.1 2 For all of this time injury prevention has been a leader in the field of academic public health. Injury prevention has led the way in multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary thinking, has been an early adopter of technologies supporting the data revolution and has pioneered the development of implementation science to achieve population-level improvements. In the 1960s, Haddon was explicitly linking the principles of engineering to those of epidemiology, in defining kinetic energy as the causal agent of injury (which he recommended be managed using a host-agent-environment/primary-secondary-tertiary prevention model).3 In the 1980s, authors in the USA were describing trauma deaths as a system performance issue,4 and in the 1990s the Swedish Government was articulating a systems solution to the escalating problem of road crash injury.5 With its …

Background: For countries with strong border control and an epidemic that is not yet advanced, there is an opportunity to eliminate SARS-CoV-2 that is causing the COVID-19 pandemic. We show how public health policies and their effects can be modelled to estimate the probability of elimination of SARS-COV-2 under i) strict physical distancing policies implemented in New Zealand and Australia on the 26th and 28th March, respectively, continuing until such time that elimination is achieved; and ii) the same policy, but with physical distancing decaying over 60 days to 26th and 28th of May. Methods: We developed an agent-based SEIR model that simulated key aspects of both country’s populations, disease, spatial and behavioural dynamics, as well as the mechanism and effect of public health policy responses on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Findings: Under maintained strong physical distancing, we estimated a median elimination date of July 12th for Australia (95% SI: June 5th to August 28th) and June 3rd for New Zealand (95% SI May 4th to June 27th). A 90% probability of elimination is achievable in Australia on August 17th (95% SI: August 8th – August 30th) and on June 14th (95% SI: June 17th – June 29th) in New Zealand. However, under our scenario of decaying adherence to physical distancing from implementation to 60 days post restrictions, a rebound in SARS-CoV-2 infections (i.e., a second wave) was likely in Australia and possibly in New Zealand. At 100 days, the probability of elimination was reduced to 10% in Australia and 68% in New Zealand. Interpretation: The findings suggest that with the effective implementation and maintenance of public health policies limiting physical interaction, it was possible to estimate a pattern the elimination of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in both countries. It seems highly likely NZ will have successfully eliminated as of 8 June, but not in Australia; the latter is consistent with our lower probabilities that modelled less stringent restrictions applied in Australia.

Background: For countries with strong border control and an epidemic that is not yet advanced, there is an opportunity to eliminate community transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We show how public health policies and their effects can be modelled to estimate the likely progression of SARS-COV-2 under i) strict physical distancing policies implemented in New Zealand and Australia on the 26 th and 28 th March, 2020 respectively, and ii) from September 1st, 2020 in Victoria, Australia as this state planned its exit from a significant second wave of infections. Methods: We developed a dynamic, public health policy model using an agent-based framework that simulated key aspects of both country’s populations, disease, spatial and behavioural dynamics, as well as the mechanism and effect of public health policy responses on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We demonstrate the model’s development and application through the first wave of infections in New Zealand, and first and second wave of infections experienced in Australia. Findings: Under maintained strong physical distancing, we originally estimated a median elimination date of July 12th for Australia (95% SI: June 5th to August 28th) and June 3rd for New Zealand (95% SI May 4th to June 27th). We estimated a 90% probability of elimination was achievable in Australia on August 17th (95% SI: August 8th – August 30th) and on June 14th (95% SI: June 17th – June 29th) in New Zealand. However, under our scenario of decaying adherence to physical distancing from implementation to 60 days post restrictions, we predicted a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections (i.e., a second wave) was likely in Australia and possibly in New Zealand. At 100 days, the probability of elimination was reduced to 10% in Australia and 68% in New Zealand. Having demonstrated the utility of our model above, the subsequent adaptation of the model in Victoria, Australia estimated that a threshold of less than 5 new cases per day over 14 days (from a peak of ~500 in August) could be achieved on or around the 17th of October. This would enable Victoria to move to, and sustain, lower levels of restrictions to movement and trade than had been possible under its strict lockdown policy. Interpretation: The findings suggest that during Australia and NZ’s first wave of infections, elimination of community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in both countries through effective implementation and maintenance of public health interventions was possible. Subsequently, the structure and function of the agent-based policy model developed to analyse the effect of policies during wave 1 has been instrumental in supporting decision-making among public health authorities during Australia’s current second wave of infections. Funding Statement: MS is funded by a NHMRC Fellowship (APP1136250), JT is funded by an ARC DECRA Fellowship (DE180101411). Declaration of Interests: None to declare.

This report presents findings from a follow-up exploratory study of the development of writing ability in an attempt to identify key component skills and competencies for elementary school literacy learners, grades 2nd, 4th and 6th. The first evaluation consisted in scoring first draft narrative texts for coherence, the second, an assessment of effective self-correction strategies. These two measures were compared to the results of a third test, of metalinguistic awareness related to children’s ability to distinguish between the two languages that they know, and those of a fourth measure of orthographic knowledge. Participants were bilingual elementary school students from an indigenous community in Central Mexico. Results point to important opportunities in future research for the understanding of how metalinguistic awareness is related to literacy learning.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand how framing messages about earthquake risk affect judgements about legislation requiring the strengthening of earthquake-prone buildings. Design/methodology/approach Scenarios described the legislation with a general population sample (n=271). Two types of framing effects were examined in a 2 (valence frame: positive or negative or positive) by 2 (numerical format frame: frequency/number or percentage) experimental design. Findings Scenarios reporting the number of earthquake-prone buildings (negative frequency format) increased support for the earthquake-strengthening legislation more than the same message framed positively (frequency number of resilient building) or as a percentage. Demographic variables such as previous earthquake experience and gender interacted with the framing effects, and other variables also predicted support for the legislation were identified. Research limitations/implications These results have direct implications for the use of framing effects messages in communications about earthquake risk and the wider domain. Originality/value This is the first study to show that the way the risk is framed affects citizens’ judgement of the value of earthquake legislation.

Objective: To describe recent trends in opioid prescribing and prescription opioid poisoning resulting in hospitalisation or death in Victoria, Australia. Method: This is a population-based ecological study of residents of Victoria, 2006 – 14. Australian Bureau of Statistics residential population data were combined with Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) opioid prescription data, Victorian Admitted Episodes Data (VAED) and cause of death data. Results: Annual opioid dispensings increased by 78% in 2006 – 13, from 0.33 to 0.58 per population. Opioid use increased with age: in 2013, 14% of Victorian residents aged ≥65 years filled at least one oxycodone prescription. In 2006 – 14, prescription opioid related hospital admissions increased by 6.8% per year, from 107 to 187 /1,000,000 person-years; 56% were due to intentional self-poisoning. Annual deaths increased from 21 to 28 /1,000,000 persons, in 2007 – 11. Admissions and deaths peaked at 25–44 years. Conclusions: Although both opioid prescribing and poisoning have increased, there is discrepancy between the exposed group (dispensings increased with age) and those with adverse consequences (rates peaked at ages 25–44 years). Implications: A better understanding is needed of drivers of prescribing and adverse consequences. Together with monitoring of prescribing and poisoning, this will facilitate early detection and prevention of a public health problem.

BACKGROUND: Case managers within injury compensation systems are confronted with various emotional demands. OBJECTIVE: Employing the concept of emotional labour, this paper explores distinctive aspects of these demands. METHODS: The findings are drawn from focus groups with 21 Australian case managers. RESULTS: Case managers work was characterised by extra-role commitments, emotional control, stress and balancing tensions arising from differing stakeholder expectations about outcomes related to compensation and return to work. CONCLUSIONS: By examining the experiences of case managers, the findings add to the literature on the emotional labour of front line service workers, especially with respect to the demands involved in managing the conflicting demands of work.

Objective: The purpose of this study was to describe the nature and extent of current powered 2-wheeler (PTW) risk exposures in order to support future efforts to improve safety for this mode of transport. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis of the control arm of a population-based case-control study was conducted. The control sample was selected from 204 sites on public roads within 150 km of the city of Melbourne that were locations of recent serious injury motorcycle crashes. Traffic observations and measurements at each site were sampled for a mean of 2 h on the same type of day (weekday, Saturday, or Sunday) and within 1 h of the crash time. Photographs of passing riders during this observation period recorded data relating to characteristics of PTWs, age of riders, travel speed of PTWs and all vehicles, time gaps between vehicles, visibility, and protective clothing use. Results: Motorcycles and scooters represented 0.6% of all traffic (compared with 4% of all vehicle registrations). Riders were significantly more likely to have larger time gaps in front and behind when compared to other vehicles. The average travel speed of motorcycles was not significantly different than the traffic, but a significantly greater proportion were exceeding the speed limit when compared to other vehicles (6 vs. 3%, respectively). The age of registered owners of passing motorcycles was 42 years. Over half of riders were wearing dark clothing with no fluorescent or reflective surfaces. One third of motorcyclists had maximum coverage of motorcycle-specific protective clothing. Conclusions: A very low prevalence of motorcyclists combined with relatively higher rates of larger time gaps to other vehicles around motorcycles may help explain their overrepresentation in injury crashes where another vehicle fails to give way. An increased risk of injury in the event of a crash exists for a small but greater proportion of motorcyclists (compared to other vehicle types) who were exceeding the speed limit. An apparent shift toward older age of the active rider population may be reducing injury crash risk relative to exposure time. There is significant scope to improve the physical conspicuity of motorcyclists and the frequency of motorcycle specific protective clothing use. These results can be used to inform policy development and monitor progress of current and future road safety initiatives.

In July and August 2013, two moment magnitude 6.6 earthquakes occurred less than 80 km from the city of Wellington, New Zealand. The earthquakes were widely felt and injured over 100 people. Following the earthquakes, a survey was conducted in coastal suburbs of Wellington, one of which (Island Bay) had previously received sustained tsunami education and participated in community-based evacuation mapping. Both earthquakes were of insufficient strength and duration to meet the thresholds to prompt evacuation from coastal areas, as communicated in civil defence and emergency management messaging. As expected, the vast majority of residents did not evacuate, however, the surveys suggest that this was unrelated to the ground shaking intensity and duration, which were commonly over-estimated. Previous education is shown to have little influence on perception of potential tsunami impact, but responses showed accurate perception of safety in relation to the tsunami hazard zone. This study highlights the continuing need to actively engage with at-risk communities, both in terms of education and training around appropriate responses to natural or official tsunami warnings, and their active participation in the defining, designing and implementation of risk management practice at a community level.

This study examined the relationship between home risk and hospital treated injury in Australian children up to five years old. Women with children between two and four years of age enrolled in the Environments for Healthy Living (EFHL): Griffith Birth Cohort Study were invited to complete a Home Injury Prevention Survey from March 2013 to June 2014. A total home risk score (HRS) was calculated and linked to the child's injury related state-wide hospital emergency and admissions data and EFHL baseline demographic surveys. Data from 562 households relating to 566 child participants were included. We found an inverse relationship between home risk and child injury, with children living in homes with the least injury risk (based on the absence of hazardous structural features of the home and safe practices reported) having 1.90 times the injury rate of children living in high risk homes (95% CI 1.15-3.14). Whilst this appears counter-intuitive, families in the lowest risk homes were more likely to be socio-economically disadvantaged than families in the highest risk homes (more sole parents, lower maternal education levels, younger maternal age and lower income). After adjusting for demographic and socio-economic factors, the relationship between home risk and injury was no longer significant (p > 0.05). Our findings suggest that children in socio-economically deprived families have higher rates of injury, despite living in a physical environment that contains substantially fewer injury risks than their less deprived counterparts. Although measures to reduce child injury risk through the modification of the physical environment remain an important part of the injury prevention approach, our study findings support continued efforts to implement societal-wide, long term policy and practice changes to address the socioeconomic differentials in child health outcomes.

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Probabilistic statements can be a valuable tool for natural hazard risk communication, including forecasts. However, individuals often have a poor understanding of such probabilistic forecasts caused by them distorting their interpretations of event likelihoods towards the end of the time window and discounting the risk today. We investigated the use of an ‘anchoring’ time statement to mitigate this bias via an opportunistic survey run after the 2013 Cook Strait earthquakes, near Wellington, New Zealand. Participants rated their interpretations of likelihoods for an immediate aftershock forecast, and for an earthquake in the future. We explored the influence of aftershock and information concern, emotions and felt shaking, gender and education, as well as preparedness actions. The anchoring time window statement mitigated the skew in interpretations for the short (24 h to within 1 week) aftershock forecast statement. However, the skew still existed for the longer future earthquake forecast (7 days to within 1 year). We also found that heightened sensory experience (felt shaking) or emotional reactions (nervousness, fear, alertness) during the earthquakes was associated with an increase in the perceived likelihoods of future events. Gender was found to significantly influence results, with females rating higher levels of information concern and anxiety, and recording higher perceived likelihoods for the immediate aftershock forecast. Findings, including the importance of ‘anchoring’ time windows within a forecast to encourage immediate preparedness actions, support recommendations for effective crafting of these forecasts and warnings.

One of the privileges of being the editor of Injury Prevention is the opportunity to read 600 or so prepublication reports of the latest research in the injury prevention field—each year, year in year out. After some years of doing this, I have developed a sense that the field of modern injury prevention has matured. Rather than trace our development, what I will do here is use the manuscripts published in this issue to show the extent to which the field is now comfortable in its own skin. There are 14 manuscripts published in this issue. Collectively, they reveal injury prevention to be a profession no longer questioning its identity, just confidently going about important programmes of work in concert with the world of which it is part. The manuscripts in this issue have not been especially selected and collated. They are simply …

The practice of injury prevention requires that each of us, as citizens and members of the public whose absolute risk of serious injury is low1 and who believe we are at lower risk than our peers,2 complies with principles and processes that decrease the chance an unlikely event will ever occur. Berkeley might have had some trouble with that.3 Not so much Wittgenstein.4 Injury prevention is a fact, not a thing. Injury is a consequence of relationships between things, and its prevention is achieved by managing those relationships. Injury prevention is not something that can be implemented on people, but with people. If injury prevention cannot be abstracted from the world in which it occurs, then neither can the science that supports it. Injury prevention research and practice exist not in the pages of a journal but in the world of the public citizen. The more the community is engaged in the work published in the …

I might have asked the question, ‘Does Injury Prevention publish intradisciplinary, multidisciplinary, interdisciplinary, transdisciplinary or global research?’. While I did not on this occasion, the analogy is useful in its identification of the critical aspects of the question asked. A discipline is a clearly delineated area of study supported by an internally consistent epistemology.1 Intradisciplinary research works within the boundaries that circumscribe the discipline. Multidisciplinary research draws knowledge from different disciplines, and summatively, combines this knowledge to create new insights.2 Interdisciplinary research compares and contrasts knowledge from different disciplines, explores the links and interactions between them and uses the between-discipline dynamic to generate knowledge.2 Transdisciplinary research dissolves the disciplinary boundaries and uses the disciplinary DNA from a number of sources to create a new epistemological entity.2 Global research goes one step beyond this into the realm of methodological pluralism, with the obligatory integration of multiple perspectives in a globally consistent approach to the development of …

My starting point for this discussion is where we left the topic in an editorial 12 months ago; that is, the need for more ‘Public involvement in the production, dissemination and implementation of injury prevention research.’1 In this issue, Jennifer Woody Collins presents an informed critique of the challenges involved, and provides an elegant response.2 I commend her practical advice for researchers and practitioners to you for your consideration. The case for coproduced research is no longer contentious.3 Both for reasons of equity and justice, and for improved translation of research to public benefit, the compelling argument for coproduced research has been made. It is now our responsibility as editors and authors to apply the principle of coproduction in a way that fits our context and achieves the principle’s ethical and practical goals. From January 2020 all authors submitting manuscripts to Injury Prevention will be asked to consider …

Background There is general agreement that in some circumstances, sharing a sleep surface of any kind with an infant increases the risk of sudden unexpected death in infancy. There is a paucity of research conducted in Australia examining this issue. This study examines the frequency and distribution of sleep-related infant deaths in a defined population, and reports the proportion that occurred in the context of bed-sharing. Methods A retrospective population-based case series study was conducted of infants (≤365 days) who died in a sleeping context during the period 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2010 in the state of Victoria, Australia. Information about the infant, caregiver, sleeping environment and bed-sharing was collected from a review of the coroner’s death investigation record. Results During the 3-year study period, 72 infant deaths occurred in a sleeping context. Of these, 33 (45.8 %) occurred in the context of bed-sharing: n = 7 in 2008; n = 11 in 2009; and n = 15 in 2010. Further analysis of the 33 deaths occurring in the context of bed-sharing showed that in this group, bed-sharing was largely intentional, habitual and most often involved the mother as one of the parties. Conclusions Given the case series nature of the study design, a causal relationship between bed-sharing and infant death could not be inferred. However the fact that nearly half of all sleep-related deaths occurred in the context of bed-sharing, provides strong support for the need to undertake definitive analytic studies in Australia so that evidence-based advice can be provided to families regarding the safety of bed-sharing practices.

Research has shown that people often misinterpret probabilities reported by experts in the media. Previous research has found that people who are given a certain probability of a volcano eruption in a specific time window judge risk as higher in later time intervals within that window. The present study examines whether a similar pattern occurs with earthquakes and aftershocks. Participants in Wellington (N=102) and Christchurch (N=98) in New Zealand read expert forecasts of the risk of a Wellington earthquake and a large Christchurch aftershock within specified time windows, then estimated the risk in specific intervals across the time window. Participants judged the Wellington earthquake risk as higher toward the end of the 50 year time window whereas for a Christchurch aftershock, risk estimates initially increased then plateaued. Likelihood of preparing showed a different pattern to earthquake likelihood and was constant over the time windows. These findings suggest the influence of base rates and lay theories on interpretations of scientific forecasts.

Background. Older adult falls are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States. This leading cause of injury in adults aged 65 and older results in $35 billion in direct medical costs. Objective. To project the number of older adult falls by 2030 and the associated lifetime medical cost. A secondary objective is to review what clinicians can do to incorporate falls screening and prevention into their practice for community-dwelling older adults. Methods. Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System and the US Census Bureau data, the number of older adults in 2030, fatal falls, and medical costs associated with fall injuries was projected. In addition, evidence-based interventions that can be integrated into clinical practice were reviewed. Results. The number of older adult fatal falls is projected to reach 100 000 per year by 2030 with an associated cost of $100 billion. By integrating screening for falls risk into clinical practice, reviewing and modifying medications, and recommending vitamin D supplementation, physicians can reduce future falls by nearly 25%. Conclusion. Falls in older adults will continue to rise substantially and become a significant cost to our health care system if we do not begin to focus on prevention in the clinical setting.

Mental ill health after road traffic injury is common, as is the use of antidepressant medication after injury. Little is known about antidepressant use by injured people prior to their injury. The aim of this study is to describe the nature and extent of antidepressant use before and after road traffic injury.Victorian residents who claimed Transport Accident Commission (TAC) compensation for a non-catastrophic injury that occurred between 2010 and 2012 and provided consent for Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) linkage were included (n=734). PBS records dating from 12 months prior through to 12 months post injury were provided by the Department of Human Services (Canberra). PBS and TAC claims data were linked.Among participants, 12% used antidepressants before injury (84.4D efined Daily Doses/1000 person-days) and 17% used antidepressants after injury (114.1DDD/1000p-d). Only 7.7% of the injured cohort commenced antidepressant treatment post injury. Thus, of all post-injury antidepressant use, 45% could potentially be related to the incident injury, with the remaining 55% most probably a continuation of pre-injury use. Pre-injury use was more common among women (109.4 vs. 54.6 DDD/1000p-d, p0.0001), and those with whiplash injury (119.3 vs. 73.1, p=0.03). Cyclists and motorcyclists were less likely to use antidepressants pre-injury than car drivers (18.3 vs. 16.9 vs. 109.3, respectively; p0.001).Less than half of post-injury antidepressant use could potentially be attributable to the incident injury. These results highlight the importance of obtaining information on pre-injury health status before interpreting post-injury health service use to be an outcome of the injury in question.

To describe the relationship between maternal education and child health outcomes at 12 months of age in a cohort of children in urban Australia, and to determine whether this relationship could be explained by the intermediate factors of maternal health behaviour and the social environmental context. Data were derived from The Environments for Health Living Griffith Birth Cohort Study. Women attending their third trimester antenatal appointment at one of three public hospitals were recruited between 2006 and 2010 and invited to complete a 48-item, baseline self-administered questionnaire. Twelve months following the birth of their baby, a follow-up questionnaire consisting of 63 items was distributed. Women for whom complete follow-up data were not available were different from women who did complete follow-up data. The children of women with follow-up data—whom at the time of their pregnancy had not completed school or whose highest level of education was secondary school or a trade—had respectively a 59 and 57 % increased chance of having had a respiratory/infectious disease or injury in the first year of life (according to parent proxy-reports), compared to children of women with a tertiary education. When maternal behavioural and social environmental factors during pregnancy were included in the model (n=1914), the effect of secondary education was still evident but with a reduced odds ratio of 1.35 (95 % CI 1.07–1.72) and 1.19 (95 % CI 0.87–1.64), respectively. The effect of not having completed school was no longer significant. Results indicate that the relationship between maternal education and child outcomes may be mediated by maternal social environmental and behavioural factors. Results are likely an underestimation of the effect size, given the under representation in our cohort of participants with maternal characteristics associated with elevated risk of infant morbidity.

Maximising educational attainment is important for both individuals and societies. However, understanding of why some students achieve better than others is far from complete. Motivation and achievement data from a sample of 782 secondary-school students in New Zealand reveal that two specific types of outcome goals, namely maximal levels of aspiration and minimal boundary goals, predict subsequent student achievement independently of mastery, performance goals, self-efficacy, student demographics and context variables including school type and time spent in out-of-school activities. In addition, our results underline that the relationships between these two specific outcome goals and achievement are moderated by the type of assessment tasks used to index achievement. Taken together, these findings demonstrate that understanding variability in students' academic performance can be significantly enhanced by taking into consideration individual differences in the strength of their maximal levels of aspirations and minimal boundary goals.

There is a small but growing literature discussing the validity and reliability of the peer review process.1 There has been substantial effort to address the specific selection bias (usually referred to as ‘ publication bias’) where decision to publish is based on the research results.2 However, there has been little discussion in the literature about perhaps the largest publication selection bias; editorial licence. The aim of this editorial is to make explicit the critical issues that underlie Injury Prevention ’s editorial selection process and invite the journal’s readers to provide further comment. There were 250 original research articles submitted to Injury Prevention in 2017. Over that same 12-month period, 25% made their way successfully through all the many editorial filters to print. That is, 25% of only those injury prevention papers that were submitted to the journal and for which the journal’s editorial team had direct responsibility. Right from the point of choosing their research questions, authors themselves make a series of editorial decisions about what to research, what manuscripts to write …

OBJECTIVES: To describe the frequency and distribution of workplace injury claims by gender, and quantify the extent to which observed gender differences in injury claim rates are attributable to differential exposure to work-related factors. METHODS: WorkSafe Victoria (Australia) workers' compensation data (254,704 claims with affliction onset 2004-2011) were analysed. Claim rates were calculated by combining compensation data with state-wide employment data. RESULTS: Mental disorder claim rates were 1.9 times higher among women; physical injury claim rates were 1.4 times higher among men. Adjusting for occupational group reversed the gender difference in musculoskeletal and tendon injury claim rates, i.e., these were more common in women than men after adjusting for occupational exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Men had higher rates of physical injury claims than women, but this was mostly attributable to occupational factors. Women had higher rates of mental disorder claims than men; this was not fully explained by industry or occupation. Am. J. Ind. Med. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Language: en