Search

Background Carpal tunnel decompression surgery to treat carpal tunnel syndrome is a common procedure, yet data on safety and effectiveness of the operation in the general population remain scarce. We aimed to estimate the incidence of reoperation and serious postoperative complications (requiring admission to hospital or further surgery) following carpal tunnel decompression in routine clinical practice and to identify the patient factors associated with these adverse outcomes. Methods We did a nationwide cohort analysis including all carpal tunnel decompression surgeries in patients aged 18 years or older, done in the National Health Service in England between April 1, 1998, and March 31, 2017, using the Hospital Episode Statistics dataset linked to mortality records. Patients were followed-up until death or until the end of the study (March 31, 2017). Primary outcomes were the overall incidence of carpal tunnel decompression reoperation and serious postoperative complications (surgical site infection or dehiscence, or neurovascular or tendon injury, requiring admission to hospital or further surgery) within 30 days and 90 days after surgery. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to identify factors influencing complications and reoperation, and the Fine and Gray method was used to adjust for the competing risk of mortality. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03573765. Findings 855 832 carpal tunnel decompression surgeries were done between April 1, 1998, and March 31, 2017 (incidence rate 1·10 per 1000 person-years [95% CI 1·02–1·17]). 29 288 procedures (3·42%) led to carpal tunnel decompression reoperation (incidence rate 3·18 per 1000 person-years [95% CI 3·12–3·23]). Of the 855 832 initial surgeries, 620 procedures (0·070% [95% CI 0·067–0·078]) led to a serious complication within 30 days after surgery, and 698 procedures (0·082% [0·076–0·088]) within 90 days. Local complications within 90 days after surgery were associated with male sex (adjusted hazard ratio 2·32 [95% CI 1·74–3·09]) and age category 18–29 years (2·25 [1·10–4·62]). Male sex (adjusted subhazard ratio 1·09 [95% CI 1·06–1·13]), old age (>80 years vs 50–59 years: 1·09 [1·03–1·15]), and greater levels of comorbidity (Charlson score ≥5 vs 0: 1·25 [1·19–1·32]) and socioeconomic deprivation (most deprived 10% vs least deprived 10%: 1·18 [1·10–1·27]) were associated with increased reoperation risk. Interpretation To our knowledge, this is the largest national study on carpal tunnel decompression to date, providing strong evidence on serious postoperative complication and reoperation rates. Carpal tunnel decompression appears to be a safe operation in most patients, with an overall serious complication rate (requiring admission to hospital or further surgery) of less than 0·1%. Funding Versus Arthritis; Medical Research Council; Royal College of Surgeons of England and National Joint Registry research fellowship; University of Oxford; National Institute for Health Research; and National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford.

Progressive hand interphalangeal joint (IPJ) osteoarthritis is associated with pain, reduced function and impaired quality of life. However, the evidence surrounding risk factors for IPJ osteoarthritis progression is unclear. Identifying risk factors for IPJ osteoarthritis progression may inform preventative strategies and early interventions to improve long-term outcomes for individuals at risk of IPJ osteoarthritis progression. The objectives of the study were to describe methods used to measure the progression of IPJ osteoarthritis and identify risk factors for IPJ osteoarthritis progression. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, and The Cochrane Library were searched from inception to 19th February 2020 (PROSPERO CRD42019121034). Eligible studies assessed potential risk factor/s associated with IPJ osteoarthritis progression. Risk of bias was assessed using a modified QUIPS Tool, and a best evidence synthesis was performed. Of eight eligible studies, all measured osteoarthritis progression radiographically, and none considered symptoms. Eighteen potential risk factors were assessed. Diabetes (adjusted mean difference between 2.06 and 7.78), and larger finger epiphyseal index in males (regression coefficient β = 0.202) and females (β = 0.325) were identified as risk factors (limited evidence). Older age in men and women showed mixed results; 13 variables were not risk factors (all limited evidence). Patients with diabetes and larger finger epiphyseal index might be at higher risk of radiographic IPJ osteoarthritis progression, though evidence is limited and studies are biased. Studies assessing symptomatic IPJ osteoarthritis progression are lacking. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s00296-020-04687-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

We aimed to assess the association between bariatric surgery and incident Dupuytren's disease (DD) using propensity score-matched cohort studies among Swedish nationwide healthcare registries. Patients aged 30-79 years who underwent bariatric surgery 2006-2019 were matched on their propensity scores, up to two obese bariatric surgery-free (unexposed) patients. We applied Cox proportional hazard regression to calculate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the risk of DD overall, in subgroups of age, sex, bariatric surgery type and duration of follow-up. Among 34,959 bariatric surgery patients and 54,769 propensity score-matched obese patients, the risk of DD was increased in bariatric surgery patients compared with obese unexposed patients (HR 1.30, 95% CI 1.02-1.65), among women (HR 1.36; 1.00-1.84); those undergoing gastric bypass (HR 1.33; 1.04-1.71) and those with >5 years follow-up (HR 1.63; 1.14-2.34). Our results suggest that substantial weight loss is associated with an increased risk of DD in an obese population., Journal of Hand Surgery (European Volume), 47 (3), ISSN:1753-1934, ISSN:2043-6289

Background Dupuytren disease (DD) is a common fibroproliferative disease of the palmar fascia. The mainstay of DD treatment in England is surgery with either percutaneous needle fasciotomy, limited fasciectomy, or dermofasciectomy. This study aimed to investigate the temporal trends and geographical variation of primary DD surgery in England. Methods A longitudinal population-based cohort study was perfomed using the Hospital Episode Statistics database from April 1, 2007, to March 31, 2017. Directly standarized rates were estimated over time (between financial years 2007-2008 and 2016-2017) and by geographic region (by clinical commissioning groups [CCGs]; financial years 2010-2011, 2013-2014, and 2016-2017). The Office for National Statistics midyear population estimates were used as the reference population. Main findings Primary DD surgery was undertaken at a steadily increasing rate from financial year 2007 to 2008, to 2016 to 2017 in England. There was a striking 3.6-fold variation in the rates of primary DD surgery among National Health Service CCGs in England place of residence. Conclusions This significant variation in DD surgical treatment in England suggests a need for the development of standardized surgical practice across all CCGs and National Health Service hospitals, promoting equality of access to cost-effective health care.

ObjectivesConcern has been raised in the rheumatology community regarding recent regulatory warnings that HCQ used in the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic could cause acute psychiatric events. We aimed to study whether there is risk of incident depression, suicidal ideation or psychosis associated with HCQ as used for RA.MethodsWe performed a new-user cohort study using claims and electronic medical records from 10 sources and 3 countries (Germany, UK and USA). RA patients ≥18 years of age and initiating HCQ were compared with those initiating SSZ (active comparator) and followed up in the short (30 days) and long term (on treatment). Study outcomes included depression, suicide/suicidal ideation and hospitalization for psychosis. Propensity score stratification and calibration using negative control outcomes were used to address confounding. Cox models were fitted to estimate database-specific calibrated hazard ratios (HRs), with estimates pooled where I2

Objective To investigate the use of repurposed and adjuvant drugs in patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 across three continents. Design Multinational network cohort study. Setting Hospital electronic health records from the United States, Spain, and China, and nationwide claims data from South Korea. Participants 303 264 patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 from January 2020 to December 2020. Main outcome measures Prescriptions or dispensations of any drug on or 30 days after the date of hospital admission for covid-19. Results Of the 303 264 patients included, 290 131 were from the US, 7599 from South Korea, 5230 from Spain, and 304 from China. 3455 drugs were identified. Common repurposed drugs were hydroxychloroquine (used in from Conclusions Multiple drugs were used in the first few months of the covid-19 pandemic, with substantial geographical and temporal variation. Hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, lopinavir-ritonavir, and umifenovir (in China only) were the most prescribed repurposed drugs. Antithrombotics, antibiotics, H2 receptor antagonists, and corticosteroids were often used as adjunctive treatments. Research is needed on the comparative risk and benefit of these treatments in the management of covid-19.

Background Elective total knee replacement (TKR) is a safe and cost-effective surgical procedure for treating severe knee osteoarthritis (OA). Although complications following surgery are rare, prediction tools could help identify those patients who are at particularly high risk who could then be targeted with preventative interventions. We aimed to develop a simple model to help inform treatment choices. Methods We trained and externally validated adverse event prediction models for patients with TKR using electronic health records (EHR) and claims data from the US (OPTUM, CCAE, MDCR, and MDCD) and general practice data in the UK (IQVIA Medical Research Database ([IMRD], incorporating data from The Health Improvement Network [THIN], a Cegedim database). The target population consisted of patients undergoing a primary TKR, aged ≥40 years and registered in any of the contributing data sources for ≥1 year before surgery. LASSO logistic regression models were developed for four adverse outcomes: post-operative (90-day) mortality, venous thromboembolism (VTE), readmission, and long-term (5-year) revision surgery. A second model was developed with a reduced feature set to increase interpretability and usability. Findings A total of 508,082 patients were included, with sample size per data source ranging from 1,853 to 158,549 patients. Overall, 90-day mortality, VTE, and readmission prevalence occurred in a range of 0.20%-0.32%, 1.7%-3.0% and 2.2%-4.8%, respectively. Five-year revision surgery was observed in 1.5%-3.1% of patients. The full model predicting 90-day mortality yielded AUROC of 0.78 when trained in OPTUM and yielded an AUROC of 0.70 when externally validated on THIN. We then developed a 12 variable model which achieved internal AUROC of 0.77 and external AUROC of 0.71 in THIN. The discriminative performances of the models predicting 90-day VTE, readmission, and 5-year revision were consistently poor across the datasets (AUROC Interpretation We developed and externally validated a simple prediction model based on sex, age, and 10 comorbidities that can identify patients at high risk of short-term mortality following TKR. Our model had a greater discriminative ability than the Charlson Comorbidity Index in predicting 90-day mortality. The 12-feature mortality model is easily implemented and the performance suggests it could be used to inform evidence based shared decision-making prior to surgery and for appropriate precautions to be taken for those at high risk. The other outcomes examined had low performance. Funding This activity under the European Health Data & Evidence Network (EHDEN) has received funding from the Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking under grant agreement No 806968. This Joint Undertaking receives support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme and EFPIA. The sponsor of the study did not have any involvement in the writing of the manuscript or the decision to submit it for publication. The research was supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). DPA is funded by a National Institute for Health Research Clinician Scientist award (CS-2013-13-012). TDS is funded by the Department of Health of the Generalitat de Catalunya under the Strategic Plan for Research and Innovation in Health (PERIS; SLT002/16/00308). The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not those of the NHS, the National Institute for Health Research or the Department of Health. The corresponding author had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication. Key Points Question Is it possible to predict adverse events following total knee replacement? Findings Mortality was the only adverse event studied that we were able to predict with adequate performance. We produced a 12 variable prediction model for 90-day post-operative mortality that achieved an AUROC of 0.77 on internal test validation (Optum) and 0.71 when externally validated in THIN. The model also showed adequate calibration. Meaning Patients can now be presented with an accurate risk assessment for short term mortality such that they are well-informed before the decision for surgery is taken. Importance Total Knee Replacement is generally a safe, effective procedure that is performed on thousands of patients each year. However, a small number of those patients will experience adverse events. Due to the surgery’s elective nature, a well calibrated, high performing risk model could pre-emptively inform the patient and clinician decision making process and help to guide preventative treatment.

ObjectiveMost patients severely affected by COVID-19 have been elderly and patients with underlying chronic disease such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, or respiratory disease. People living with HIV (PLHIV) may have greater risk of contracting or developing severe COVID-19 due to the underlying HIV infection or higher prevalence of comorbidities.DesignThis is a cohort study, including PLHIV diagnosed, hospitalized, or requiring intensive services for COVID-19.MethodsData sources include routine electronic medical record or claims data from the U.S. and Spain. Patient demographics, comorbidities, and medication history are described.ResultFour data sources had a population of HIV/COVID-19 coinfected patients ranging from 288 to 4606 lives. PLHIV diagnosed with COVID-19 were younger than HIV-negative patients diagnosed with COVID-19. PLHIV diagnosed with COVID-19 diagnosis had similar comorbidities as HIV-negative COVID-19 patients with higher prevalence of those comorbidities and history of severe disease. Treatment regimens were similar between PLHIV diagnosed with COVID-19 or PLHIV requiring intensive services.ConclusionsOur study uses routine practice data to explore HIV impact on COVID-19, providing insight into patient history prior to COVID-19. We found that HIV and COVID-19 coinfected patients have higher prevalence of underlying comorbidities such as cardiovascular and respiratory disease as compared to HIV-negative COVID-19 infected patients. We also found that, across the care cascade, co-infected patients who received intensive services were more likely to have more serious underlying disease or a history of more serious events as compared to PLHIV who were diagnosed with COVID-19.

Early identification of symptoms and comorbidities most predictive of COVID-19 is critical to identify infection, guide policies to effectively contain the pandemic, and improve health systems’ response. Here, we characterised socio-demographics and comorbidity in 3,316,107persons tested and 219,072 persons tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 since January 2020, and their key health outcomes in the month following the first positive test. Routine care data from primary care electronic health records (EHR) from Spain, hospital EHR from the United States (US), and claims data from South Korea and the US were used. The majority of study participants were women aged 18-65 years old. Positive/tested ratio varied greatly geographically (2.2:100 to 31.2:100) and over time (from 50:100 in February-April to 6.8:100 in May-June). Fever, cough and dyspnoea were the most common symptoms at presentation. Between 4%-38% required admission and 1-10.5% died within a month from their first positive test. Observed disparity in testing practices led to variable baseline characteristics and outcomes, both nationally (US) and internationally. Our findings highlight the importance of large scale characterization of COVID-19 international cohorts to inform planning and resource allocation including testing as countries face a second wave.

Background Hydroxychloroquine, a drug commonly used in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, has received much negative publicity for adverse events associated with its authorisation for emergency use to treat patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. We studied the safety of hydroxychloroquine, alone and in combination with azithromycin, to determine the risk associated with its use in routine care in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. Methods In this multinational, retrospective study, new user cohort studies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis aged 18 years or older and initiating hydroxychloroquine were compared with those initiating sulfasalazine and followed up over 30 days, with 16 severe adverse events studied. Self-controlled case series were done to further establish safety in wider populations, and included all users of hydroxychloroquine regardless of rheumatoid arthritis status or indication. Separately, severe adverse events associated with hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin (compared with hydroxychloroquine plus amoxicillin) were studied. Data comprised 14 sources of claims data or electronic medical records from Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, and the USA. Propensity score stratification and calibration using negative control outcomes were used to address confounding. Cox models were fitted to estimate calibrated hazard ratios (HRs) according to drug use. Estimates were pooled where the I² value was less than 0·4. Findings The study included 956 374 users of hydroxychloroquine, 310 350 users of sulfasalazine, 323 122 users of hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin, and 351 956 users of hydroxychloroquine plus amoxicillin. No excess risk of severe adverse events was identified when 30-day hydroxychloroquine and sulfasalazine use were compared. Selfcontrolled case series confirmed these findings. However, long-term use of hydroxychloroquine appeared to be associated with increased cardiovascular mortality (calibrated HR 1·65 [95% CI 1·12–2·44]). Addition of azithromycin appeared to be associated with an increased risk of 30-day cardiovascular mortality (calibrated HR 2·19 [95% CI 1·22–3·95]), chest pain or angina (1·15 [1·05–1·26]), and heart failure (1·22 [1·02–1·45]). Interpretation Hydroxychloroquine treatment appears to have no increased risk in the short term among patients with rheumatoid arthritis, but in the long term it appears to be associated with excess cardiovascular mortality. The addition of azithromycin increases the risk of heart failure and cardiovascular mortality even in the short term. We call for careful consideration of the benefit–risk trade-off when counselling those on hydroxychloroquine treatment.

Background To better understand the profile of individuals with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), we characterised individuals hospitalised with COVID-19 and compared them to individuals previously hospitalised with influenza. Methods We report the characteristics (demographics, prior conditions and medication use) of patients hospitalised with COVID-19 between December 2019 and April 2020 in the US (Columbia University Irving Medical Center [CUIMC], STAnford Medicine Research data Repository [STARR-OMOP], and the Department of Veterans Affairs [VA OMOP]) and Health Insurance Review & Assessment [HIRA] of South Korea. Patients hospitalised with COVID-19 were compared with patients previously hospitalised with influenza in 2014–19. Results 6,806 (US: 1,634, South Korea: 5,172) individuals hospitalised with COVID-19 were included. Patients in the US were majority male (VA OMOP: 94%, STARR-OMOP: 57%, CUIMC: 52%), but were majority female in HIRA (56%). Age profiles varied across data sources. Prevalence of asthma ranged from 7% to 14%, diabetes from 18% to 43%, and hypertensive disorder from 22% to 70% across data sources, while between 9% and 39% were taking drugs acting on the renin-angiotensin system in the 30 days prior to their hospitalisation. Compared to 52,422 individuals hospitalised with influenza, patients admitted with COVID-19 were more likely male, younger, and, in the US, had fewer comorbidities and lower medication use. Conclusions Rates of comorbidities and medication use are high among individuals hospitalised with COVID-19. However, COVID-19 patients are more likely to be male and appear to be younger and, in the US, generally healthier than those typically admitted with influenza.

Objectives A plethora of medicines have been repurposed or used as adjunctive therapies for COVID-19. We characterized the utilization of medicines as prescribed in routine practice amongst patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in South Korea, China, Spain, and the USA. Design International network cohort Setting Hospital electronic health records from Columbia University Irving Medical Centre (NYC, USA), Stanford (CA, USA), Tufts (MA, USA), Premier (USA), Optum EHR (USA), department of veterans affairs (USA), NFHCRD (Honghu, China) and HM Hospitals (Spain); and nationwide claims from HIRA (South Korea) Participants patients hospitalized for COVID-19 from January to June 2020 Main outcome measures Prescription/dispensation of any medicine on or 30 days after hospital admission date Analyses Number and percentage of users overall and over time Results 71,921 people were included: 304 from China, 2,089 from Spain, 7,599 from South Korea, and 61,929 from the USA. A total of 3,455 medicines were identified. Common repurposed medicines included hydroxychloroquine ( Conclusions Multiple medicines were used in the first months of COVID-19 pandemic, with substantial geographic and temporal variation. Hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, lopinavir-ritonavir, and umifenovir (in China only) were the most prescribed repurposed medicines. Antithrombotics, antibiotics, H2 receptor antagonists and corticosteroids were often used as adjunctive treatments. Research is needed on the comparative risk and benefit of these treatments in the management of COVID-19. What is already known in this topic Drug repurposing is a common approach in the clinical management of novel diseases and conditions for which there are no available pharmacotherapies Hydroxychloroquine was widely used in the management of COVID-19 patients during the early phases of the pandemic Recent NIH (and other) guidelines recommend the use of concomitant therapies including immune-based, antithrombotic, antibiotic and other treatments What this study adds This study demonstrates great variability and extensive drug repurposing and utilization in the management of COVID-19 patients. A wide range of adjunctive treatments has been used, including antithrombotics, antibiotics, H2 receptor antagonists, and systemic corticosteroids. Emerging clinical data on the safety and efficacy of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin impacted their rise and rapid decline in use internationally Conversely, the use of corticosteroids grew only in more recent months, with little use in the early stages of the pandemic (January to April)

BackgroundCOVID-19 may differentially impact people with obesity. We aimed to describe and compare the demographics, comorbidities, and outcomes of obese patients with COVID-19 to those of non-obese patients with COVID-19, or obese patients with seasonal influenza.MethodsWe conducted a cohort study based on outpatient/inpatient care, and claims data from January to June 2020 from the US, Spain, and the UK. We used six databases standardized to the OMOP common data model. We defined two cohorts of patientsdiagnosedand/orhospitalizedwith COVID-19. We created corresponding cohorts for patients with influenza in 2017-2018. We followed patients from index date to 30 days or death. We report the frequency of socio-demographics, prior comorbidities, and 30-days outcomes (hospitalization, events, and death) by obesity status.FindingsWe included 627 044 COVID-19 (US: 502 650, Spain: 122 058, UK: 2336) and 4 549 568 influenza (US: 4 431 801, Spain: 115 224, UK: 2543) patients. The prevalence of obesity was higher amonghospitalizedCOVID-19 (range: 38% to 54%) thandiagnosedCOVID-19 (30% to 47%), ordiagnosed(15% to 47%) orhospitalized(27% to 48%) influenza patients. ObesehospitalizedCOVID-19 patients were more often female and younger than non-obese COVID-19 patients or obese influenza patients. Obese COVID-19 patients were more likely to have prior comorbidities, present with cardiovascular and respiratory events during hospitalization, require intensive services, or die compared to non-obese COVID-19 patients. Obese COVID-19 patients were more likely to require intensive services or die compared to obese influenza patients, despite presenting with fewer comorbidities.InterpretationWe show that obesity is more common amongst COVID-19 than influenza patients, and that obese patients present with more severe forms of COVID-19 with higher hospitalization, intensive services, and fatality than non-obese patients. These data are instrumental for guiding preventive strategies of COVID-19 infection and complications.FundingThe European Health Data & Evidence Network has received funding from the Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking (JU) under grant agreement No 806968. The JU receives support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme and EFPIA. This research received partial support from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (BRC), US National Institutes of Health, US Department of Veterans Affairs, Janssen Research & Development, and IQVIA. The University of Oxford received funding related to this work from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Investment ID INV-016201 and INV-019257). APU has received funding from the Medical Research Council (MRC) [MR/K501256/1, MR/N013468/1] and Fundación Alfonso Martín Escudero (FAME) (APU). VINCI [VA HSR RES 13-457] (SLD, MEM, KEL). JCEL has received funding from the Medical Research Council (MR/K501256/1) and Versus Arthritis (21605). No funders had a direct role in this study. The views and opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Clinician Scientist Award programme, NIHR, Department of Veterans Affairs or the United States Government, NHS, or the Department of Health, England.Research in contextEvidence before this studyPrevious evidence suggests that obese individuals are a high risk population for COVID-19 infection and complications. We searched PubMed for articles published from December 2019 until June 2020, using terms referring to SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 combined with terms for obesity. Few studies reported obesity and most of them were limited by small sample sizes and restricted to hospitalized patients. Further, they used different definitions for obesity (i.e. some reported together overweight and obesity, others only reported obesity with BMI>40kg/m2). To date, no study has provided detailed information on the characteristics of obese COVID-19 patients, such as the prevalence of comorbidities or COVID-19 related outcomes. In addition, despite the fact that COVID-19 has been often compared to seasonal influenza, there are no studies assessing whether obese patients with COVID-19 differ from obese patients with seasonal influenza.Added value of this studyWe report the largest cohort of obese patients with COVID-19 and provide information on more than 29 000 aggregate characteristics publicly available. Our findings were consistent across the participating databases and countries. We found that the prevalence of obesity is higher among COVID-19 compared to seasonal influenza patients. Obese patients with COVID-19 are more commonly female and have worse outcomes than non-obese patients. Further, they have worse outcomes than obese patients with influenza, despite presenting with fewer comorbidities.Implications of all the available evidenceOur results show that individuals with obesity present more comorbidities and worse outcomes for COVID-19 than non-obese patients. These findings may be useful in guiding clinical practice and future preventative strategies for obese individuals, as well as provide useful data to support subsequent association studies focussed on obesity and COVID-19.

Objective Radiographic hand OA affects one in five adults. Symptomatic hand OA can result in functional impairment, pain and reduced quality of life. A prevalent form of hand OA is IP joint OA, however prognostic factors for IP joint OA remain poorly understood. This systematic review aimed to identify prognostic factors for IP joint OA, and to summarize the diagnostic criteria for IP joint OA in prognostic studies. Methods EMBASE, MEDLINE, Scopus and The Cochrane Library were searched from inception until 19 February 2020 (PROSPERO CRD42019116782). Eligible studies described diagnostic criteria defining IP joint OA, and assessed potential prognostic factors for IP joint OA. Risk of bias was assessed using a modified Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool and a best evidence synthesis was used. Results Eighteen studies were included (risk of bias: eight high, three moderate, seven low). All defined OA radiographically, and three studies incorporated clinical symptoms into their definition of OA. Forty-nine potential prognostic factors were assessed. Eight were prognostic: older age in women, female gender (both moderate evidence); family history of Heberden’s nodes, Kashin–Beck disease, older age in men, dental occupation in men, finger fracture, parity (all limited evidence). Higher BMI in women (limited evidence) was prognostic for symptomatic radiographic OA. No prognostic factors for symptomatic OA were identified. Conclusion IP joint OA is most commonly defined radiographically, yet criteria were heterogeneous. Eight prognostic factors for radiographic IP joint OA and one for symptomatic radiographic IP joint OA were identified, all with limited or moderate evidence. Further studies on causality and on prognostic pathways are needed.

Comorbid conditions appear to be common among individuals hospitalised with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) but estimates of prevalence vary and little is known about the prior medication use of patients. Here, we describe the characteristics of adults hospitalised with COVID-19 and compare them with influenza patients. We include 34,128 (US: 8362, South Korea: 7341, Spain: 18,425) COVID-19 patients, summarising between 4811 and 11,643 unique aggregate characteristics. COVID-19 patients have been majority male in the US and Spain, but predominantly female in South Korea. Age profiles vary across data sources. Compared to 84,585 individuals hospitalised with influenza in 2014-19, COVID-19 patients have more typically been male, younger, and with fewer comorbidities and lower medication use. While protecting groups vulnerable to influenza is likely a useful starting point in the response to COVID-19, strategies will likely need to be broadened to reflect the particular characteristics of individuals being hospitalised with COVID-19., Detailed knowledge of the characteristics of COVID-19 patients helps with public health planning. Here, the authors use routinely-collected data from seven databases in three countries to describe the characteristics of >30,000 patients admitted with COVID-19 and compare them with those admitted for influenza in previous years.

BackgroundHydroxychloroquine has recently received Emergency Use Authorization by the FDA and is currently prescribed in combination with azithromycin for COVID-19 pneumonia. We studied the safety of hydroxychloroquine, alone and in combination with azithromycin.MethodsNew user cohort studies were conducted including 16 severe adverse events (SAEs). Rheumatoid arthritis patients aged 18+ and initiating hydroxychloroquine were compared to those initiating sulfasalazine and followed up over 30 days. Self-controlled case series (SCCS) were conducted to further establish safety in wider populations. Separately, SAEs associated with hydroxychloroquine- azithromycin (compared to hydroxychloroquine-amoxicillin) were studied. Data comprised 14 sources of claims data or electronic medical records from Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Spain, UK, and USA. Propensity score stratification and calibration using negative control outcomes were used to address confounding. Cox models were fitted to estimate calibrated hazard ratios (CalHRs) according to drug use. Estimates were pooled where I2ResultsOverall, 956,374 and 310,350 users of hydroxychloroquine and sulfasalazine, and 323,122 and 351,956 users of hydroxychloroquine-azithromycin and hydroxychloroquine-amoxicillin were included. No excess risk of SAEs was identified when 30-day hydroxychloroquine and sulfasalazine use were compared. SCCS confirmed these findings. However, when azithromycin was added to hydroxychloroquine, we observed an increased risk of 30-day cardiovascular mortality (CalHR2.19 [1.22- 3.94]), chest pain/angina (CalHR 1.15 [95% CI 1.05-1.26]), and heart failure (CalHR 1.22 [95% CI 1.02- 1.45])ConclusionsShort-term hydroxychloroquine treatment is safe, but addition of azithromycin may induce heart failure and cardiovascular mortality, potentially due to synergistic effects on QT length. We call for caution if such combination is to be used in the management of Covid-19.Trial registration numberRegistered with EU PAS; Reference number EUPAS34497 (http://www.encepp.eu/encepp/viewResource.htm?id=34498). The full study protocol and analysis source code can be found at https://github.com/ohdsi-studies/Covid19EstimationHydroxychloroquine.Funding sourcesThis research received partial support from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (BRC) and Senior Research Fellowship (DPA), US National Institutes of Health, Janssen Research & Development, IQVIA, and by a grant from the Korea Health Technology R&D Project through the Korea Health Industry Development Institute (KHIDI), funded by the Ministry of Health & Welfare, Republic of Korea [grant number: HI16C0992]. Personal funding included Versus Arthritis [21605] (JL), MRC-DTP [MR/K501256/1] (JL), MRC and FAME (APU). The European Health Data & Evidence Network has received funding from the Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking (JU) under grant agreement No 806968. The JU receives support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme and EFPIA. No funders had a direct role in this study. The views and opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Clinician Scientist Award programme, NIHR, NHS or the Department of Health, England.

Progressive hand interphalangeal joint (IPJ) osteoarthritis is associated with pain, reduced function and impaired quality of life. However, the evidence surrounding risk factors for IPJ osteoarthritis progression is unclear. Identifying risk factors for IPJ osteoarthritis progression may inform preventative strategies and early interventions to improve long-term outcomes for individuals at risk of IPJ osteoarthritis progression. The objectives of the study were to describe methods used to measure the progression of IPJ osteoarthritis and identify risk factors for IPJ osteoarthritis progression. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, and The Cochrane Library were searched from inception to 19th February 2020 (PROSPERO CRD42019121034). Eligible studies assessed potential risk factor/s associated with IPJ osteoarthritis progression. Risk of bias was assessed using a modified QUIPS Tool, and a best evidence synthesis was performed. Of eight eligible studies, all measured osteoarthritis progression radiographically, and none considered symptoms. Eighteen potential risk factors were assessed. Diabetes (adjusted mean difference between 2.06 and 7.78), and larger finger epiphyseal index in males (regression coefficient β = 0.202) and females (β = 0.325) were identified as risk factors (limited evidence). Older age in men and women showed mixed results; 13 variables were not risk factors (all limited evidence). Patients with diabetes and larger finger epiphyseal index might be at higher risk of radiographic IPJ osteoarthritis progression, though evidence is limited and studies are biased. Studies assessing symptomatic IPJ osteoarthritis progression are lacking.

Background:The lifetime prevalence of lower back pain is between 60% and 70%, with surgical treatments spared for those not responding to other options.Objectives:To investigate the age, gender and socio-economic status differences in back pain procedures in the UK between 2000, 2008 and 2016.Methods:Data was obtained from primary care electronic medical records (CPRD GOLD) linked to English hospital admissions data. Lower back procedures in patients aged 35+ were identified using OPCS-4 codes for Decompression (Dc), Fusion (F), Therapeutic injections (TI) and Denervation (Dn). Standardised incidence rates (IR) of each type of lower back procedures were calculated per 10,000 CPRD registered person years for each age group, gender, region and SES strata in 2000, 2008 and 2016. IR were also calculated for combinations of age and gender. Negative binomial regression calculated incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals.Results:The IR of lower back procedures was 21.5 [20.7, 22.3] per 10,000 person years in 2000. This doubled by 2008 (45.5 [44.5, 46.5]) and trebled by 2016 (62.5 [60.8, 64.2]). Number of events and incidence rates of each procedure type are shown in table 1 below. The incidence of Dn has increased 6-fold whilst Dc and F have doubled. Female (IR in 2016 of 73.99 [71.43, 76.61] vs 50.08 [47.90, 52.33] in men, IRR 1.50 [1.41, 1.59]) and age are associated with back procedure rates (figure 1). Large socio-economic differences were observed, with higher procedure rates seen in the most deprived areas. These differences did however narrow over time during the study period (figure 2).Table 1.Event numbers and incidence rates of different types of lower back procedure.FusionDecompressionTherapeutic InjectionDenervationEventsIR (95% CI)EventsIR (95% CI)EventsIR (95% CI)EventsIR (95% CI)20001090.86 (0.71, 1.04)4663.69 (3.36, 4.04)203516.11 (15.42, 16.82)910.72 (0.58, 0.88)20083331.77 (1.58, 1.97)11976.35 (6.00, 6.72)628333.35 (32.53, 34.18)5963.16 (2.91, 3.43)20161591.93 (1.65, 2.26)5256.39 (5.85, 6.96)386547.03 (45.56, 48.54)4875.93 (5.41, 6.48)Figure 1.Age and Gender stratified incidence rate ratios of all back procedures in 2000, 2008 and 2016Figure 2.Deprivation status incidence rate ratios by yearConclusion:The incidence of lower back procedures has more than trebled since 2000. Women are more likely to have lower back procedures than men, with patients aged 65-74 the most likely to have a procedure. Procedures in those aged 75+ have become more common over time, potentially increasing the risk of post-operative complications. Socio-economic differences in the incidence of low back procedures are probably related to the known higher prevalence of back pain in deprived areas. Whether the observed narrowing in socio-economic variation over time is explained by a reduced need or by lowered provision needs further research.Disclosure of Interests:Danielle E Robinson: None declared, Jennifer Lane: None declared, Richard Craig: None declared, Andrew Judge: None declared, James Bailey: None declared, Dahai Yu: None declared, Kelvin Jordan: None declared, George Peat: None declared, Ross Wilkie: None declared, Alan Silman: None declared, Victoria Y Strauss: None declared, Daniel Prieto-Alhambra Grant/research support from: Professor Prieto-Alhambra has received research Grants from AMGEN, UCB Biopharma and Les Laboratoires Servier, Consultant of: DPA’s department has received fees for consultancy services from UCB Biopharma, Speakers bureau: DPA’s department has received fees for speaker and advisory board membership services from Amgen

Background:Dupuytren disease (DD) is multifactorial, with several genetic and environmental risk factors contributing to disease susceptibility. High body mass index, however, was suggested to be protective of DD.1 The impact of weight loss among obese patients on DD has not been assessed to date.Objectives:To assess the association between bariatric surgery and DD in a secondary care setting.Methods:We performed a propensity score (PS)-matched cohort study using data from Swedish nationwide healthcare registries (patient registry [secondary care], causes of death registry, prescribed drug registry). Patients aged 30-79 years who underwent bariatric surgery between 2006 and 2019 were matched to up to 2 obese bariatric surgery-free patients (called unexposed patients) based on their PS. PS-matching was carried out in risk set sampling to reduce selection bias, within 4 sequential cohort entry blocks to account for time trend biases. The outcome DD was defined as a diagnosis of DD in secondary care or partial or total fasciotomy of wrist or hand. After a 1-year run-in period, patients were followed in an “as-treated” approach. We applied Cox proportional hazard regression to calculate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of incident DD among bariatric surgery patients when compared to obese unexposed patients overall, and in subgroups of age, sex, bariatric surgery type, and by duration of follow-up.Results:A total of 34 959 bariatric surgery patients were PS-matched to 54 769 obese unexposed patients. A total of 71.6% of bariatric surgery patients were women. Bariatric surgery patients had a mean age of 45.5 years and a mean follow-up of 6.9 years. All patient characteristics in obese unexposed patients were highly similar. We observed 126 and 136 severe DD cases among bariatric surgery and obese unexposed patients, respectively. The risk of DD was significantly increased in bariatric surgery patients compared to obese unexposed patients (HR = 1.30, 95% CI 1.02-1.65). The risk of DD was higher in women (HR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.00-1.84) than in men (HR = 1.05, 95% CI 0.70-1.58). Age did not modify the risk of DD among bariatric surgery patients compared to obese unexposed patients. Malabsorptive bariatric surgery yielded an increased risk of DD when compared to obese unexposed patients (HR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.04-1.71), while restrictive bariatric surgery yielded a null result. The risk of DD increased with duration of follow-up (>5 years of follow-up: HR = 1.63, 95% CI 1.14-2.34, null result in earlier follow-up).Conclusion:Our results suggest that substantial weight loss is associated with a latent increased risk of severe DD in an obese population. This observation further strengthens current evidence that high body mass index is protective against DD. The latency of risk increase of DD after bariatric surgery may suggest that slowly adapting metabolic changes may be part of the mechanism of DD emergence.References:[1]Hacquebord JH, Chiu VY, Harness NG. The Risk of Dupuytren Surgery in Obese Individuals. J Hand Surg Am. 2017, 42: 149–55.Acknowledgements:We thank Prof. Dr. Jesper Lagergren (Karolinksa Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden) for hosting Dr. Theresa Burkard for a research stay at the Upper Gastrointestinal Surgery Group and making the data available for use. Furthermore, we thank Dr. Giola Santoni (Karolinksa Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden) for her technical support.Disclosure of Interests:None declared

Background:Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) is a chronic compression neuropathy caused by entrapment of the median nerve in the wrist causing pain and sensory loss. Prior observational research suggested that obesity increased the risk of CTS. However, the impact of weight loss among obese patients on CTS has not been assessed to date.Objectives:To assess the association between bariatric surgery and CTS in a secondary care setting.Methods:We performed a propensity score (PS)-matched cohort study using data from Swedish nationwide healthcare registries (patient registry [secondary care], causes of death registry, prescribed drug registry). Patients aged 18-79 years who underwent bariatric surgery between 2006 and 2019 were matched to up to 2 obese bariatric surgery-free patients (called unexposed patients) based on their PS. PS-matching was carried out in risk set sampling to reduce selection bias, within 4 sequential cohort entry blocks to account for time trend biases. The outcome CTS was defined as a diagnosis of CTS in secondary care or carpal tunnel decompression surgery. After a 1-year run-in period, patients were followed in an “as-treated” approach. We applied Cox proportional hazard regression to calculate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of CTS among bariatric surgery patients when compared to obese unexposed patients overall, and in subgroups of age, sex, bariatric surgery type, and by duration of follow-up.Results:A total of 40 619 bariatric surgery patients were PS-matched to 63 540 obese unexposed patients. A total of 72.3% of bariatric surgery patients were women. Bariatric surgery patients had a mean age of 41.7 years and a mean follow-up of 6.8 years. All patient characteristics in obese unexposed patients were highly similar. We observed 1 356 and 1 938 severe CTS cases among bariatric surgery and obese unexposed patients, respectively. Bariatric surgery was not associated overall with CTS (HR of 0.98, 95% CI 0.91-1.05). However, the risk of CTS seemed to decrease with age at bariatric surgery – the lowest CTS risk was observed among bariatric surgery patients aged 18-34 years (HR of 0.87, 95% CI 0.74-1.01), when compared to obese unexposed patients. Sex did not modify the risk of CTS among bariatric surgery patients compared to obese unexposed patients. Restrictive bariatric surgery yielded lower risks of CTS (HRs of 0.81, 95% CI 0.69-0.88) than did malabsorptive bariatric surgery (HR of 0.95, 95% CI 0.88-1.02) when compared to obese unexposed patients. The risk of CTS increased with duration of follow-up. The lowest risk was observed 1-3 years after bariatric surgery (HR of 0.77, 95% CI 0.68-0.88) and the highest risk 6-13 years after bariatric surgery (HR of 1.20, 95% CI 1.05-1.36) when compared to obese unexposed patients.Conclusion:Our results suggest that substantial weight loss is not overall associated with severe CTS in an obese patient population. However, bariatric surgery was associated with an initial decreased risk of CTS after bariatric surgery followed by an increased risk in later follow-up. Furthermore, restrictive bariatric surgery but not malapsorptive bariatric surgery was associated with a decreased risk of CTS.Acknowledgements:We thank Prof. Dr. Jesper Lagergren (Karolinksa Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden) for hosting Dr. Theresa Burkard for a research stay at the Upper Gastrointestinal Surgery Group and making the data available for use. Furthermore, we thank Dr. Giola Santoni (Karolinksa Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden) for her technical support.Disclosure of Interests:None declared.

Background:Treatment guidelines recommend early initiation of csDMARDs following diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), with methotrexate (MTX) as first-line therapy. Scarce evidence exists on adherence to this guidanceObjectives:To characterize first-line csDMARD treatment during the first year following an RA diagnosis.Methods:14 real world databases (3 Primary care, 6 primary/secondary care records, 5 claims) from 9 countries were included, all mapped to the OMOP common data model.Patients were included on the earliest event of: 1st diagnosis of RA or 1st DMARD prescription with an RA diagnosis within 30 days. Patients were >18 years-old, required 1+ year pre-index data, and at least 1-year follow-up. Study period covered 2000-2018. Previous users of DMARDs or non-RA inflammatory arthritis history were excluded. Only MTX, Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), Sulfasalazine (SSZ) and Leflunomide (LEF) were available in all databases.Results:We identified 323,547 eligible participants. Large variation was observed internationally (Figure 1). MTX as first-line monotherapy ranged from 33.3% to 74.5%, and in combination with HCQ from 2.1% to 6.7%. Three additional csDMARDs were used as first-line: HCQ in 10.1% to 30.2%, SSZ in 0.9% to 28.7%, and LEF in 1.8% to 15.2%.Figure 1.First line csDMARD treatment during 1yr from first observed RA diagnosisConclusion:We report wide heterogeneity of first-line csDMARDs regimens internationally. Despite recommendations for MTX to be first line therapy, data suggest that a large proportion of patients receive alternative csDMARD.Disclosure of Interests: :Anthony G Sena Shareholder of: J&J shares, Grant/research support from: Full-time employment salary from Janssen, Consultant of: Full-time employment salary from Janssen, Employee of: Janssen employee, Paid instructor for: Janssen employee, Speakers bureau: Janssen employee, Denis Granados: None declared, Nigel Hughes Shareholder of: J&J shares, Grant/research support from: Full-time employment salary from Janssen, Consultant of: Janssen employee, Employee of: Janssen employee, Paid instructor for: Janssen employee, Speakers bureau: Janssen employee, WALID FAKHOURI Shareholder of: E Lilly Shares, Employee of: Eli Lilly and Company, Antje Hottgenroth Shareholder of: Eli Lilly shares, Employee of: Lilly Deutschland GmbH, Raivo Kolde: None declared, Sulev Reisberg: None declared, Carmen Olga Torre: None declared, Talita Duarte-Salles: None declared, Yesika Díaz: None declared, Jose Felipe Golib-Dzib Grant/research support from: Full-time employment salary from Janssen, Employee of: Yes, Janssen employee, Paid instructor for: Janssen Employee, Speakers bureau: Janssen Employee, Emily S. Brouwer Shareholder of: J&J shares, Takeda shares, Grant/research support from: Full-time employment salary from Janssen, Consultant of: Janssen employee, Employee of: Janssen employee, Paid instructor for: Janssen Employee, Speakers bureau: Janssen Employee, Edward Burn: None declared, Jennifer Lane: None declared, David Vizcaya Employee of: Bayer, Sara Bruce Wirta Employee of: Janssen-Cilag Sweden AB, Marcel de Wilde: None declared, Katia Verhamme: None declared, Peter Rijnbeek: None declared, Elke Theander Employee of: Janssen-Cilag Sweden AB, Katerina Chatzidionysiou Consultant of: AbbVie, Pfizer, Lilly., Daniel Prieto-Alhambra Grant/research support from: Professor Prieto-Alhambra has received research Grants from AMGEN, UCB Biopharma and Les Laboratoires Servier, Consultant of: DPA’s department has received fees for consultancy services from UCB Biopharma, Speakers bureau: DPA’s department has received fees for speaker and advisory board membership services from Amgen, Patrick Ryan: None declared

ObjectivesTo provide accurate risk estimates of serious adverse events after elective shoulder replacement surgery for arthritis, including age and sex specific estimates of the lifetime risk of revision surgery.DesignPopulation based cohort study.SettingHospital episode statistics for NHS England, including civil registration mortality data.Participants58 054 elective shoulder replacements in 51 895 adults (aged ≥50 years) between April 1998 and April 2017.Main outcome measuresThe lifetime risk of revision surgery, calculated using an actuarial life table approach and the cumulative probability method. Rates of serious adverse events at 30 and 90 days post-surgery: pulmonary embolism, myocardial infarction, lower respiratory tract infection, acute kidney injury, urinary tract infection, cerebrovascular events, and all cause death. Secondary outcome measures were the number of surgeries performed each year and Kaplan-Meier estimates of revision risk at 3, 5, 10, and 15 years.ResultsThe number of shoulder replacements performed each year increased 5.6-fold between 1998 and 2017. Lifetime risks of revision surgery ranged from 1 in 37 (2.7%, 95% confidence interval 2.6% to 2.8%) in women aged 85 years and older to 1 in 4 (23.6%, 23.2% to 24.0%) in men aged 55-59 years. The risks of revision were highest during the first five years after surgery. The risk of any serious adverse event at 30 days post-surgery was 1 in 28 (3.5%, 3.4% to 3.7%), and at 90 days post-surgery was 1 in 22 (4.6%, 4.4% to 4.8%). At 30 days, the relative risk of pulmonary embolism compared with baseline population risk was 61 (95% confidence interval 50 to 73) for women aged 50-64. Serious adverse events were associated with increasing age, comorbidity, and male sex. 1 in 5 (21.2%, 17.9% to 25.1%) men aged 85 years and older experienced at least one serious adverse event within 90 days.ConclusionsYounger patients, particularly men, need to be aware of a higher likelihood of early failure of shoulder replacement and the need for further and more complex revision replacement surgery. All patients should be counselled about the risks of serious adverse events. These risks are higher than previously considered, and for some could outweigh any potential benefits. Our findings caution against unchecked expansion of shoulder replacement surgery in both younger and older patients. The more accurate age and sex specific estimates of risk from this study are long overdue and should improve shared decision making between patients and clinicians.Study registrationClinicalTrials.govNCT03573765.

Background: Healthcare related costs for carpal tunnel decompression surgery (CTD) to treat carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) exceed two billion dollars per year, despite a scarcity of data on safety and effectiveness. We estimated the incidence of revision surgery and complications following CTD, and the patient factors associated with adverse outcomes. Methods: We included all CTD surgeries undertaken in England using the Hospital Episode Statistics dataset linked to mortality records from 01/04/1998 until 31/03/2017. Patients were followed up until death or 31/03/2017. Primary outcomes were the overall incidence of revision CTD and postoperative complications (surgical site infection or dehiscence requiring surgery, neurovascular or tendon injury) within 30 and 90 days of surgery. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to identify factors influencing complications and revision surgery. The Fine and Gray method was used to adjust for the competing risk of mortality. Findings: 855 838 CTDs were performed during the 19-year period (incidence rate 1.10 per 1000 person years [95% CI 1·02 to 1·17]). Complication rates were 0·07% (95% CI 0·067 to 0·078) within 30 days, 0·08% (95% CI 0·073 to 0·085) within 90 days. 90-day local complications were associated with male sex and age category 18-29 years (adjusted hazard ratios 2·32 [1·74 to 3·09], 2·25 [1·10 to 4·62] respectively). 3·4% underwent revision CTD (incidence rate 3·18 per 1000 person years [95% CI 3·12 to 3·23]). Male sex, increasing age, greater levels of comorbidity, and increasing socioeconomic deprivation were associated with increased revision risk (adjusted subhazard ratios 1·09 [95% CI 1·05 to 1·13]; 1·09 [1·03 to 1·15]; 1·25 [1·19 to 1·32] and 1·18 [1·10 to 1·27]). Interpretation: This is the largest national study on CTD to date, providing the best available evidence on complication and revision rates. CTD is a safe operation, with an overall complication rate of less than 0.1%. Funding: Versus Arthritis; Medical Research Council; RCS England/ NJR research fellowship; University of Oxford; National Institute for Health Research; NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford. Declaration of Interest: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure and declare: no support from any organization for the submitted work; D P-A has received research grants from Amgen, Servier, UCB; departmental fees for speaker services from Amgen, departmental fees for consultancy from UCB. No other relationships or activities could appear to have influenced the submitted work. Ethical Approval: This study was approved by the University of Oxford Research Services Clinical Trials Research Group (project ID 12787), and the NHS Data Access Advisory Group (DAAG). It was carried out in accordance with the NHS Digital Data Sharing Agreement (DARS-NIC-29827-Q8Z7Q) and registered at clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03573765). Studies using non-identifiable records from Hospital Episode Statistics are exempt from research ethics committee approval.

Background The aim of this study was to assess the inter observer and intra observer reliability of acute scaphoid fracture classification methods including a novel ‘long axis’ measurement, a simple method which we have developed with the aim of improving agreement when describing acute fractures. Methods We identified sixty patients with acute scaphoid fractures at two centres who had been investigated with both plain radiographs and a CT (Computed Tomography) scan within 4 weeks of injury. The fractures were assessed by three observers at each centre using three commonly used classification systems and the ‘long axis’ method. Results Inter observer reliability: based on X-rays the ‘long axis’ measurement demonstrated substantial agreement (Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) =0.76) and was significantly more reliable than the Mayo (p Conclusions This study describes a novel pragmatic ‘long axis’ method for the assessment of acute scaphoid fractures which demonstrates substantial inter and intra observer reliability. The ‘long axis’ measurement has clear potential benefits over traditional classification systems which should be explored in future clinical research.

ObjectiveRoutine health records can be of great value in epidemiological and genetic studies if they are able to reliably identify true disease cases, especially when linked to large cohort studies. Little research has been undertaken into whether coding within UK electronic health records (EHR) is able to accurately identify clinical disease cases of common hand conditions. There is therefore a relative paucity of hand surgical research using EHRs due to concerns that cases cannot be accurately identified.The aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of hospital and primary care coding of routine EHRs for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) and base of thumb osteoarthritis (BTOA). Self-reported disease state as recorded in UK Biobank, a large prospective cohort study was also investigated.MethodsCode lists for each condition were generated by a team of clinicians, clinical coders and epidemiologists. All patients recruited to UK Biobank in one geographical region (Lothian, Scotland) where linked primary and secondary care coded datasets available were included. A decision- making algorithm was designed to define an administratively-confirmed or a clinically confirmed disease case. Patient electronic medical records (EMRs) were independently interrogated by two clinicians and inter-observer reliability calculated.ResultsOf the 17,201 Biobank participants in NHS Lothian, 268 had at least one code for CTS and 82 for BTOA. For CTS, 159 cases were confirmed, 100 cases had insufficient information and 9 cases were refuted. Excluding missing data, the positive predictive value (PPV) for true clinical disease cases was 96% for incident disease (90% for prevalent disease; overall 94%).For BTOA, 27 cases were confirmed, 46 cases had insufficient information, and 9 cases were refuted. Excluding missing data, PPV for incident disease was 81% (prevalent disease 56%, overall PPV 75%). Interrogation of the disease cases with insufficient information noted a large proportion arising from primary care and self-report coding systems.Analyzing code combinations revealed that secondary care codes had the highest PPV for CTS and BTOA, emphasizing a more robust evaluation of PPV for patients requiring hospital based care. Overall, inter-observer reliability was good, with agreement in 90% of cases (Cohen’s kappa of 0.79) for clinical disease cases in CTS and agreement of 98%, (kappa 0.96) for BTOA.ConclusionsWe have demonstrated that coding within UK Biobank is of sufficient quality to enable use of the resource for epidemiological and genetic research into common hand conditions, and that EMRs can be used for manual validation of UK health coding systems. Further work is needed to consider potential regional and interdisciplinary differences in coding practice, in strategies for dealing with missing data in EHRs, and to validate coding of common hand conditions in primary care.

Aim Enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) produces benefits to patients by reducing the length of hospital stay and morbidity. Its effect on nursing and physiotherapy workload has been studied, but the demand upon radiology is unclear. We aimed to determine radiology use to understand possible hidden expenditure not included in existing ERAS cost-effectiveness analyses. Method Two-hundred and sixty-five patients from a prospective multidimensional ERAS database were retrospectively assessed for postoperative radiology use. All had undergone colorectal surgery within an established ERAS programme from 2008 to 2009, with all data prospectively recorded. Laparoscopy was offered for all primary colon and rectal resections. All adverse events, including gut dysfunction, surgical site infection and reoperation, were assessed. All radiology within 30 days of surgery was recorded. Results Radiology data were absent in 12 patients, leaving 253 for analysis. Postoperative radiology was used in 71 (28%) patients, and 41 (16%) had CT of the abdomen and pelvis (A/P) within 30 days of surgery. In 33 (13%) patients this was required during the primary admission, including 30% of patients with any postoperative adverse event. Nine (27%; 3.6% of the whole cohort) of the 33 patients required reoperation. No patient required interventional radiology. The median time to CT (A/P) during primary admission was 5 (interquartile range, 3–8) days. Eight (3%) patients had CT (A/P) after readmission with one reoperation. Forty (16%) patients underwent plain radiology (chest or abdominal) and six (2%) had abdominal ultrasound. Using general estimates of CT and plain radiology total costs, these data suggest an overall radiology cost of over £22 000, amounting to a radiology cost of £90 per ERAS patient. Conclusion Postoperative radiology is required in a significant proportion of ERAS patients, potentially reflecting a low threshold to investigate in the presence of an adverse event. Very few require subsequent intervention. Radiology costs incurred with ERAS should be considered in future economic analyses.

Aim Early identification of patients experiencing postoperative complications is imperative for successful management. C-reactive protein (CRP) is a nonspecific marker of inflammation used in many specialties to monitor patient condition. The role of CRP measurement early in the elective postoperative colorectal patient is unclear, particularly in the context of enhanced recovery (ERAS). Methods Five hundred and thirty-three consecutive patients who underwent elective colorectal surgery between October 2008 and October 2010 within an established ERAS programme were studied. Patients were separated into a development group of 265 patients and a validation group of 268 patients by chronological order. CRP and white cell count were added to a prospectively maintained ERAS database. The primary outcome of the study was all adverse events (including infective complications, postoperative organ dysfunction and prolonged length of stay) during the initial hospital admission. Significant predictors for adverse events on univariate analysis were submitted to multivariate regression analysis and the resulting model applied to the validation group. The validity and predictive accuracy of the regression model was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve/area under the curve (AUC) analysis. Results CRP levels > 150 mg/l on postoperative day 2 and a rising CRP on day 3 were independently associated with all adverse events during the hospital admission. A weighted model was applied to the validation group yielding an AUC of 0.65 (95% CI 0.58–0.73) indicating, at best, modest discrimination and predictive accuracy for adverse events. Conclusion Measurement of CRP in patients after elective colorectal surgery in the first few days after surgery within ERAS can assist in identifying those at risk of adverse events and a prolonged hospital stay. A CRP value of > 150 mg/l on day 2 and a rising CRP on day 3 should alert the surgeon to an increased likelihood of such events.

Traumatic injuries cause 5.8 million deaths per year globally. Before the advent of antibiotics, sepsis was considered almost inevitable after injury. Today infection continues to be a common complication after traumatic injury and is associated with increases in morbidity and mortality and longer hospital stays. Research into the prevention of post-traumatic infection has predominantly focused on thoracic and abdominal injuries. In addition, because research on sepsis following musculoskeletal injuries has predominantly been on open fractures. There is a paucity of research into the prevention of soft tissue infections following traumatic injuries. This review analyses the evidence for the role of prophylactic antibiotics in the management of soft tissue injuries. Emphasis is placed on assessing the strength of the presented evidence according to the Oxford Level of Evidence scale.

Background The radial forearm free flap (RFFF) is widely used in reconstructive surgery. Traditional donor-site closure by grafting may be associated with significant aesthetic and functional morbidity. We report our experience with primary closure using a local hatchet flap. Methods In all, 45 consecutive patients who underwent RFFF reconstruction in the head and neck during an 8-year period were retrospectively assessed with regards to their donor-site morbidity. Results The mean age of the patients was 54, with 23 being female. The mean RFFF area harvested was 37.7 cm; mean width, 7.6 cm (5.5-11 cm); and mean length, 4.7 cm (3.5-6.5 cm). All patients had their donor site closed primarily utilizing a local hatchet flap. At the time of follow-up, there were 33 surviving patients, of which 31 patients were available for assessment. Conclusions We recommend this technique of primary closure of the RFFF donor site: it is well tolerated by the patient, with good cosmesis and is associated with no discernable functional morbidity.

In this paper the complications of ear piercing are considered and the treatment of resultant deformities is described.