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The COVID-19 pandemic was reported from March 2020 in Zimbabwe. COVID-19 containment measures which included repeated lockdowns have disrupted community interactions, reduced working hours, restricted travel and restricted HIV services for people living with HIV (PLHIV), among others. The study adopted a cross-sectional design. Both qualitative and quantitative data were collected in all the 10 provinces and analysed. A sample size of 480 was calculated for the cross-sectional survey. Secondary data on HIV early warning indicators from 2018 to 2021 were extracted from 20 randomly selected health facilities and used for modelling. Mathematical modelling was conducted to assess the impact of COVID-19 on PLHIV. AIDS-related deaths increased from 20 100 in 2019 to 22 200 in 2020. In addition, there were significant years of life lost (yLLs) from premature mortality and years of life lost due to disability (yLDs) from COVID-19. Prevalence of COVID-19 among PLHIV was 4%. COVID-19 vaccination coverage was 64%, which is higher than the national average of 42%. Stress and breach of confidentiality as ARV medicines were given out in open spaces and fear of contracting COVID-19 were the perceived psychological issues. COVID-19 disrupted HIV service provision, increased AIDS-related deaths and caused psychological challenges.

Understanding the economic implications of COVID-19 for the HIV epidemic and response is critical for designing policies and strategies to effectively sustain past gains and accelerate progress to end these colliding pandemics. While considerable cross-national empirical evidence exists at the global level, there is a paucity of such deep-dive evidence at national level. This article addresses this gap. While Zimbabwe experienced fewer COVID-19 cases and deaths than most countries, the pandemic has had profound economic effects, reducing gross domestic product by nearly 7% in 2020. This exacerbates the long-term economic crisis that began in 1998. This has left many households vulnerable to the economic fallout from COVID-19, with the number of the extreme poor having increased to 49% of the population in 2020 (up from 38% in 2019). The national HIV response, largely financed externally, has been one of the few bright spots. Overall, macro-economic and social conditions heavily affected the capacity of Zimbabwe to respond to COVID-19. Few options were available for borrowing the needed sums of money. National outlays for COVID-19 mitigation and vaccination amounted to 2% of GDP, with one-third funded by external donors. Service delivery innovations helped sustain access to HIV treatment during national lockdowns. As a result of reduced access to HIV testing, the number of people initiating HIV treatment declined. In the short term, there are likely to be few immediate health care consequences of the slowdown in treatment initiation due to the country’s already high level of HIV treatment coverage. However, a longer-lasting slowdown could impede national progress towards ending HIV and AIDS. The findings suggest a need to finance the global commons, specifically recognising that investing in health care is investing in economic recovery.

In Zimbabwe, as in other East and Southern African countries, HIV prevalence is largely geographically heterogeneous. We determined if, and to what extent, this heterogeneity is associated with proximity to sex work sites by type of site (city, economic growth point, international, seasonal, or transport), using Demographic and Health Surveys location-specific HIV prevalence data—including 16,121 individuals (aged 15-49 years) from 400 sample locations—and Centre for Sexual Health and HIV/AIDS Research data on locations of 56 sex work sites throughout Zimbabwe. We conducted univariate and multivariate multilevel logistic regression to determine the association between sex work proximity—calculated as the shortest distance by road from each survey sample location to the nearest sex work site—and HIV seropositivity. We found no association between locations of sex work and heterogeneity in HIV prevalence in the general population, possibly explained by the mobile nature of both female sex workers and their clients as individual-level indicators of sex work were still significantly associated with HIV.

Background In 2013, the World Health Organisation (WHO) recommended Option B+ as a strategy to prevent mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV. In option B+ , lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) is offered to all HIV positive pregnant and breastfeeding women to reduce MTCT rate to less than or equal to 5%. Its success depends on retaining women on ART during pregnancy, delivery and breast-feeding period. There is limited data on early retention on ART among pregnant women in Zimbabwe. We therefore assessed early retention among women on Option B + from antenatal care (ANC) until 6 months post ANC booking and at delivery in Bulawayo city and Mazowe rural district of Zimbabwe. Methods We collected data for pregnant women booking for ANC between January and March 2018, comparing early retention among ART naïve women and those already on ART. The two cohorts were followed up for 6 months post ANC booking, and this was done in two districts. Data were collected from routine tools used at facility level which include ANC, delivery and ART registers. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to estimate retention probabilities at 1, 3 and 6 months post-delivery and for retention at delivery proportions were used. Poisson regression was used to investigate factors associated with non-retention at 6 months post ANC booking. Results A total of 388 women were included in the study with median age of 29 years (IQR: 25–34). Two-thirds booked in their second trimester. Retention at 3 and 6 months post ANC booking was 84% (95% CI 80–88) and 73% (95% CI 69–78) respectively. At delivery 81% (95% CI 76–84) were retained in care, 18% lost-to-follow-up and 1% transferred out. In this study we did not find marital status, gestation age, facility location, ART status at ANC booking, to be associated with loss to follow-up. Conclusion In this study, we found low retention at 3, 6 months and delivery, a threat to elimination of Mother-to-child Transmission of HIV in Zimbabwe. Our findings emphasize the need for enhanced interventions to improve early retention such as post-test counselling, patient tracing and visit reminders.

SummaryWe applied a simulation model of HIV to analyze the effects of 3 and 6-month disruptions in health services as a result of COVID-19. We found that disruptions to primary prevention programs (male circumcision, behavior change programs, condom distribution) would have small but transitory effects on new infections that might be more than offset by reductions in commercial and multi-partner sex due to lock downs. However, if COVID-19 leads to disruptions in ART services the impacts on mortality could be severe, doubling or tripling the estimated number of HIV deaths in 2020.

BACKGROUND:\ud National-level population size estimates (PSEs) for hidden populations are required for HIV programming and modelling. Various estimation methods are available at the site-level, but it remains unclear which are optimal and how best to obtain national-level estimates.\ud \ud SETTING:\ud Zimbabwe METHODS:: Using 2015-2017 data from respondent-driven sampling surveys (RDS) among female sex workers (FSW) aged 18+ years, mappings, and programme records, we calculated PSEs for each of 20 sites across Zimbabwe, using up to three methods per site (service and unique object multipliers, census, and capture-recapture). We compared estimates from different methods, and calculated site medians. We estimated prevalence of sex work at each site using census data available on the number of 15-49 year-old women, generated a list of all 'hotspot' sites for sex work nationally, and matched sites into strata in which the prevalence of sex work from sites with PSEs was applied to those without. Directly and indirectly estimated PSEs for all hotspot sites were summed to provide a national-level PSE, incorporating an adjustment accounting for sex work outside hotspots.\ud \ud RESULTS:\ud Median site PSEs ranged from 12,863 in Harare to 247 in a rural growth-point. Multiplier methods produced the highest PSEs. We identified 55 hotspots estimated to include 95% of all FSW. FSW nationally were estimated to number 40,491, 1.23% of women aged 15-49 years, (plausibility bounds 28,177-58,797, 0.86-1.79%, those under 18 considered sexually exploited minors).\ud \ud CONCLUSION:\ud There are large numbers of FSW estimated in Zimbabwe. Uncertainty in population size estimation should be reflected in policy-making.

Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread disruptions including to health services. In the early response to the pandemic many countries restricted population movements and some health services were suspended or limited. In late 2020 and early 2021 some countries re-imposed restrictions. Health authorities need to balance the potential harms of additional SARS-CoV-2 transmission due to contacts associated with health services against the benefits of those services, including fewer new HIV infections and deaths. This paper examines these trade-offs for select HIV services. Methods We used four HIV simulation models (Goals, HIV Synthesis, Optima HIV and EMOD) to estimate the benefits of continuing HIV services in terms of fewer new HIV infections and deaths. We used three COVID-19 transmission models (Covasim, Cooper/Smith and a simple contact model) to estimate the additional deaths due to SARS-CoV-2 transmission among health workers and clients. We examined four HIV services: voluntary medical male circumcision, HIV diagnostic testing, viral load testing and programs to prevent mother-to-child transmission. We compared COVID-19 deaths in 2020 and 2021 with HIV deaths occurring now and over the next 50 years discounted to present value. The models were applied to countries with a range of HIV and COVID-19 epidemics. Results Maintaining these HIV services could lead to additional COVID-19 deaths of 0.002 to 0.15 per 10,000 clients. HIV-related deaths averted are estimated to be much larger, 19–146 discounted deaths per 10,000 clients. Discussion While there is some additional short-term risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission associated with providing HIV services, the risk of additional COVID-19 deaths is at least 100 times less than the HIV deaths averted by those services. Ministries of Health need to take into account many factors in deciding when and how to offer essential health services during the COVID-19 pandemic. This work shows that the benefits of continuing key HIV services are far larger than the risks of additional SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

BackgroundZimbabwe adopted voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) as a priority HIV prevention strategy in 2007 and began implementation in 2009. We evaluated the costs and impact of this VMMC program to date and in future.MethodsThree mathematical models describing Zimbabwe's HIV epidemic and program evolution were calibrated to household survey data on prevalence and risk behaviors, with circumcision coverage calibrated to program-reported VMMCs. We compared trends in new infections and costs to a counterfactual without VMMC. Input assumptions were agreed in workshops with national stakeholders in 2015 and 2017.ResultsThe VMMC program averted 2,600-12,200 infections (among men and women combined) by the end of 2016. This impact will grow as circumcised men are protected lifelong, and onward dynamic transmission effects, which protect women via reduced incidence and prevalence in their male partners, increase over time. If other prevention interventions remain at 2016 coverages, the VMMCs already performed will avert 24,400-69,800 infections (2.3-5% of all new infections) through 2030. If coverage targets are achieved by 2021 and maintained, the program will avert 108,000-171,000 infections (10-13% of all new infections) by 2030, costing $2,100-3,250 per infection averted relative to no VMMC. Annual savings from averted treatment needs will outweigh VMMC maintenance costs once coverage targets are reached. If Zimbabwe also achieves ambitious UNAIDS targets for scaling up treatment and prevention efforts, VMMC will reduce the HIV incidence remaining at 2030 by one-third, critically contributing to the UNAIDS goal of 90% incidence reduction.ConclusionsVMMC can substantially impact Zimbabwe's HIV epidemic in the coming years; this investment will save costs in the longer term.