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We propose target date funds modified to exploit stock return predictability driven by the variance risk premium. The portfolio rule of these tactical target date funds (TTDFs) is extremely simplified relative to the optimal one, making it easy to implement and to communicate to investors. We show that saving for retirement in TTDFs generates economically large welfare gains, even after we introduce turnover restrictions and transaction costs, and after taking into account parameter uncertainty. This predictability also appears to be uncorrelated with individual household risk, suggesting that households are in a prime position to exploit it. This paper was accepted by Tomasz Piskorski, finance.

A large body of work argues that the accumulation of organizational experience fosters learning because firms can correctly modify their understandings on the basis of past actions and their outcomes. But although performance information on past decisions can often be delayed, little research considered how firms respond to experience without complete performance information. In this study, we propose that experience is a double-edged sword: whereas experience with performance feedback can foster learning, experience without complete performance feedback impedes learning. Using a sample of 7,223 private equity buyout investments, we find that experience with (in)complete performance information increases (decreases) the performance of a subsequent investment. The positive impact of experience with complete performance information is amplified when firms engage in search, following a shortfall in their performance. Moreover, we find that experience with (in)complete performance information decreases (increases) excessive risk taking. Overall, we advance the experiential learning literature by unpacking the positive and negative impact of experiential learning.

In recent years, it has become easier than ever to launch entrepreneurial ventures due to digitization and the ensuing drop in the cost of computational power, distribution channels, and so on (Greenstein et al., 2013). The lower cost of entry has led to higher failure rates as more individuals pursue entrepreneurship (Klepper, 2015; Nanda & Rhodes-Korpf, 2014). Individuals now experiment with launching not one but multiple entrepreneurial ventures. Among those engaged in entrepreneurship, many have previously launched a venture and failed. This fact marks a qualitative change in entrepreneurship in general and has immediate implications for studying entrepreneurial resource acquisition in particular (Huang, 2018; Vissa, 2011). Hence, we ask: How do investors evaluate past entrepreneurial outcomes? Specifically, how do investors evaluate entrepreneurs who have previously experienced failure?

The article studies problems and prospects of managerial decisions dealing with the process of import-substitution of certain products and puts forward the method of raising its efficiency. This research is based on costs – output tables, as a result of which a special algorithm is designed to estimate the efficiency and accompanying effects for different lines of import-substitution. The authors analyze in what way the process of import-substitution can affect the output of certain industries (both inside the country and for other countries) and how it can change import and export by each industry of each country. By using this algorithm two tests were carried out based on computer modeling, where a proportion of import in a chosen industry of the country was replaced by home production, at first for one type of products and then for another. Results of these tests show a number of predicted values of macro-economic indices as a result of import-substitution of one or another product, whose analysis helps identify the best variant of importing such product, which should be substituted by home produce in order to reach the set criterion of efficiency. The designed algorithm can be used as a support system for decision-making in importsubstitution policy.

Research background: An investment appraisal applies a single discount rate across all effects. However, this may be insufficient for heterogenous environmental impacts, mixing private and public goods as well as use and non-use values, where individuals may have multiple intertemporal preferences due to their duality to act as consumer or citizen. Purpose: The paper aims at identifying the scope of discrepancies in the level of discount rate for public and private as well as use-and non-use investment gains. Research methodology: The contingent valuation method is used to elicit stated discount rates for 2 hypothetical investments: environmental or financial gains to distinguish between public and private domain accompanied by two time-frames: short (use values) and long (non-use values). Results: The discount rate for the environment is lower than for money. It is also lower for the long-term horizon in comparison with the short-term perspective. The discrepancies are observed also for explanatory variables in respect to a socio-economic profile and attitude characteristics. Novelty: The paper adds to the discussion on valuation discrepancies between self-interested consumers and socially oriented citizens. The scarcity of previous research examining discount rates for public/private goods as well as the short/long-time horizon make the results relevant for public policy dealing with climate change and environmental protection, providing an insight into individual intertemporal preferences.

Quantifying uncertainty over technologies, costs, and prices that stem from site-specific conditions, technological particularities and future projections is an important element in the investment appraisal of desalination facilities. Yet, the majority of economic assessments in the field of desalination plants, so far, use deterministic estimation methods based on ‘best guess’ estimates and ceteris paribus sensitivity analyses. Aiming to fill this gap, this paper introduces a new approach towards comparing alternative technological options for desalination facilities under uncertainty based on the Levelized Cost of Water (LCOW). The proposed framework combines Monte Carlo simulations with scenario analysis and random-walk-based models to account for the cone of uncertainty of the LCOW. For purely illustrative purposes, five alternative combinations of desalination technologies and energy sources are examined in the State of Kuwait. The findings show that the proposed framework, although it cannot eliminate uncertainty, can assist decision-makers in managing it by framing the range of possible outcomes of the LCOW. In this way, it offers an insight into the accuracy of the estimates and allows the validation of the impact of risks and uncertainties against the acceptable tolerance level. Yet, several issues need to be addressed in future research.

We present a transit model that, based on automated fare collection and train tracking data, describes pedestrian movements in train stations and vehicle-specific train ridership distributions. Our approach differs from existing models in that we describe on-board passenger dynamics and pedestrian dynamics at stations in a joint framework. We assume that travelers first decide on the train(s) they will take, and then pursue their journey through the network by successively choosing pedestrian paths, waiting positions on platforms, and specific train cars. Travelers explicitly maximize their travel utility. We model how crowding influences their walking speeds, and how it affects travel utility both at stations and on-board. To illustrate the framework, we present a real case study of a major Dutch rail corridor, for which we collect a rich set of passenger, pedestrian and train operation data. We observe a good agreement of model estimates with empirical observations, and discuss the use of the model for various transit-related problems including level-of-service assessment, crowding estimation, transit optimization, and integrated investment appraisal.

Household financial decisions are complex, interdependent, and heterogeneous, and central to the functioning of the financial system. We present an overview of the rapidly expanding literature on household finance (with some important exceptions) and suggest directions for future research. We begin with the theory and empirics of asset market participation and asset allocation over the life cycle. We then discuss household choices in insurance markets, trading behavior, decisions on retirement saving, and financial choices by retirees. We survey research on liabilities, including mortgage choice, refinancing, and default, and household behavior in unsecured credit markets, including credit cards and payday lending. We then connect the household to its social environment, including peer effects, cultural and hereditary factors, intra-household financial decision making, financial literacy, cognition and educational interventions. We also discuss literature on the provision and consumption of financial advice.

Securing resources, such as financing, is key to ensuring the growth and survival of all organizations, and especially that of new ventures, engines of innovation in today���s knowledgebased economy. And resource-acquisition success of entrepreneurial firms is driven by investors making decisions in the face of high uncertainty and relative lack of information prevalent in the entrepreneurship landscape. In order to march forward with investment decisions despite these challenges, investors are liable to use information or cues that are extraneous to entrepreneurial strategy, or subjectively construct investment opportunities in their minds. Advancing knowledge of performance variance among ventures therefore calls for advancing what we know about how investors process uncertainty along these lines. This dissertation ��� comprising three interlinked yet distinct studies - is a step towards that direction, with the eventual aim of contributing to the broader strategy & entrepreneurship field. In the first study, drawing on insights from information processing and judgement & decision-making, I examine how properties of entrepreneurial strategy gives rise to investor disagreement, and the performance implications. I study this in the context of investor disagreement on social media at the point of ventures going public, i.e., doing IPOs in the United States. In the second study, I look at the role transient, contextual shocks can play in determining ventures��� funding outcomes. Drawing on affect-as-information theory, I postulate that sunnier days improve investors mood, resulting in greater likelihood of investment. Support is found from an archival study of European accelerator demo day programmes, and an experimental study. The third and final study is based on a nuanced perspective on how entrepreneurial metaphors in pitches influence investors. Going beyond existing literature that mostly groups metaphors together (and finding unclear evidence of how they influence the investor), I contend that different metaphors will have differential effects in shaping investors response to a venture���s prospects. Empirical support is drawn from a qualitative study of online crowdfunding campaigns and an experimental study.

Despite the importance of corporate disclosures on strategies to capital market participants, the existing academic literature provides limited insights into why and how firm managers disclose their companies��� strategies, what information is revealed specifically, and how market participants use or can potentially use such information. This thesis, which includes two studies, aims to fill the knowledge gap by exploring two types of strategy disclosures. In the first study, titled ���Strategy-Pay Linkage and Future Performance: Evidence from FTSE 350 Firms��� Annual Reports,��� I examine the economic implications of FTSE 350 firms��� strategy disclosures in the annual reports. I find that the level of strategy-pay linkage (i.e., the linkage between strategies and future CEO pay policies) disclosed in the reports is positively associated with the firms��� future operating performance. The association is stronger when firms have lower proprietary costs of disclosures, and when they have received more shareholder dissent on the directors��� remuneration reports previously. I also document that stronger strategy-pay linkage leads to greater investor consensus about firm value and lower information asymmetry between firm insiders and outsiders. The second study, titled ���Strategic Plan Disclosures of Newly Appointed CEOs,��� is co-authored with Tathagat Mukhopadhyay, James Ryans and Irem Tuna. We examine the determinants and market consequences of strategic plans disclosed by newly appointed CEOs at U.S. public firms. We find that new CEOs who are negatively perceived by investors when the appointment is announced are more likely to disclose a strategic plan within the first year of tenure, and tend to do so earlier than CEOs who are perceived positively. However, these disclosures do not seem to change investors��� negative perceptions, as we document a positive relation between market reactions to the CEO appointments and the reactions to the disclosures. In addition, we analyse the content of the strategic plans and find that the disclosures on growth strategies help improve the accuracy of future analyst forecasts.

Value investing involves buying securities that appear cheap relative to some fundamental anchor. For equity investors, that anchor is typically a measure of intrinsic value linked to financial statements. Recently, much has been written about the death of value investing. Although undoubtedly many approaches to value investing have suffered recently, the authors find the suggestion that value investing is dead to be premature. Both from a theoretical and empirical perspective, expectations of fundamental information have been and continue to be an important driver of security returns. The authors also address critiques leveled at value investing and find them generally lacking in substance. TOPICSAnalysis of individual factors/risk premia, factor-based models, fundamental equity analysis Key Findings ▪ The authors address a series of possible (ex post) rationalizations of the recent underperformance of value strategies. They find little empirical evidence or theoretical foundation to support the criticisms. ▪ Building on prior academic research, the authors find strong evidence that fundamental information is relevant for stock prices. ▪ However, the authors find that there are periods in which stock prices become less connected to fundamental information; when value underperforms significantly, it is primarily attributable to a widening gap between prices and fundamentals.

This study presents a field experiment we conducted in which media articles for a random sample of firms with earnings announcements are promoted to a one percent subset of Yahoo Finance users. The promoted firms have similar fundamental and earnings-news characteristics as control firms, yet we find that promoted firms have higher abnormal returns on the day of the earnings announcement, and some evidence of lower bid-ask spreads. Moreover, these results are more pronounced for less visible firms, negative earnings news, and on days with fewer promoted firms. We do not find evidence of significant increases in trading volume, or of information acquisition by users subject to the promotion. These findings suggest that investor attention affects the pricing of earnings and that retail investors buy stocks that catch their attention, in a setting where attention is randomly assigned.

Over the last few years, a lot of press, pundit, and political attention has been paid to share repurchases, much of it critical. Most repurchase critics assert that share repurchases are at historical highs and that dollars spent repurchasing shares would otherwise be directed toward profitable investment. Some also credit recent stock market gains to the “sugar high” of share repurchases. The authors show that most of these criticisms are without merit (at least, merit that can be demonstrated), sometimes glaringly so. Aggregate share repurchase activity has not been at historical highs when measured properly, and when netted against debt issuance it is almost a non-event: It does not mechanically create earnings growth, does not stifle aggregate investment activity, and has not been the primary cause for recent stock market strength. These myths should be discarded.

Style investing has become part of the investing nomenclature for equity markets. To date, despite the massive size of fixed-income markets, little research has examined the efficacy of style-based investing in fixed income. In this article, the authors summarize a common style-based framework for capturing excess returns for both government and corporate bonds. Importantly, from an investor perspective, these style-based excess returns are highly diversifying with respect to the classic risk premiums in fixed-income markets (i.e., term premium and credit risk premium) and exhibit low macroeconomic sensitivities.

This paper assesses the economic benefits of 57 World Bank Group-sponsored hydropower dam plant investments. Hydropower dams are among the main sources for producing electricity and the largest renewable source for power generation throughout the world. Hydropower dams are often a lower-cost option for power generation in Clean Energy Transition for addressing global climate change. Despite its conspicuous aspects, constructing hydropower dams has been controversial. Considering the World Bank’s long history as the largest hydropower development financier, this study investigates its performance in supporting hydropower dams. The outcomes of this study apply to the wider hydropower development community. Of the projects in this study, 70% experienced a cost overrun, and more than 80% of projects experienced time overruns, incurring potential additional costs as a result. Despite the high cost and time overruns, this hydropower portfolio of dams produced a present value of net economic benefits by 2016 of over half a trillion USD. Based on our findings, the evaluated hydropower portfolio helped avoid over a billion tonnes of CO2 for an estimated global environmental benefit valued at nearly USD 350 billion. The projects’ additional environmental benefits raise the real rate of return from 15.4% to 17.3%. The implication for hydropower developers is that the projects’ assessment should consider cost and time overrun and factor them into the project-planning contingency scenarios. There is a considerable benefit for developing countries to exploit their hydropower resources if they can be developed according to industry practices and international standards. The case for developing hydropower may be stronger when considering its climate benefits. The net economic benefits of hydropower can be even higher if there is a greater effort to manage cost and time overruns.

We use daily page views of analyst estimates, ratings, and target prices on Yahoo Finance to understand when users seek sell-side analyst research. Demand for this information is most pronounced on days with earnings announcements, management guidance, and All-Star analyst reports. Surprisingly, demand does not increase at Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filings. While the overall demand for analyst estimates is 19.9 percent less than for analyst ratings and target prices, on earnings announcement and management guidance days, this preference is reversed. Moreover, the demand for analyst information substantially trumps that of SEC filings and financial statement information. JEL Classifications: M41; G14; G24.

We provide a theoretical and empirical analysis of the link between financial and real health care markets. This link is important as financial returns drive investment in medical research and development (R&D), which, in turn, affects real spending growth. We document a “medical innovation premium” of 4–6% annually for equity returns of firms in the health care sector. We interpret this premium as compensating investors for government-induced profit risk, and we provide supportive evidence for this hypothesis through company filings and abnormal return patterns surrounding threats of government intervention. We quantify the implications of the premium for the growth in real health care spending by calibrating our model to match historical trends, predicting the share of gross domestic product (GDP) devoted to health care to be 32% in the long run. Policies that had removed government risk would have led to more than a doubling of medical R&D and would have increased the current share of health care spending by more than 3% of GDP.

Our research is aimed at identifying the current practices in respect of the financial appraisal of information communication technology and non-ICT projects. We look specifically at the UK – a well-established market economy – and the Czech Republic – an emerging market economy. Our research is based on a unique survey, which simultaneously examines the financial appraisal models used in the two types of projects, and addresses these issues from two diverse market economies. An important finding is that any differences in the financial models used relate to the two countries rather than between ICT or non-ICT projects. While both countries make extensive use of the payback model, they fully defend the view that this model influences a short-term mentality. The Czech Republic, more so than the UK, also support the view that the payback is unsuitable for appraising information communication technology projects, yet they still use it to appraise such projects. The Czech Republic places less importance on the discounted cashflow models than the UK, with the Czech Republic preferring the ‘net present value’ to the ‘internal rate of return’. The UK, by using an ‘opportunity cost of capital’ approach in the determination of the ‘discount rate’, may be making it harder to achieve a positive net present value than the Czech Republic, who adopt an approach which is nearer to the true cost of capital. This exploratory study will aid both practitioners and academics in a greater understanding of the appraisal of capital assets and focus future research in a positive way.

We propose two explanations for the previously documented relation between aggregate earnings growth and future inflation: one based on firms changing their investment in response to earnings growth, and the other based on consumers varying their consumption in response to wealth effects of profitability growth. As the supply of goods and services is relatively inelastic in the short run, our arguments imply that changes to near-term demand for investment (consumption) will affect the prices of investment (consumption) goods and services. Consistent with the investment-based argument, we find that profitability changes predict investment and Producer Price Index (PPI) shifts in subsequent quarters. Our analyses also reveal that aggregate earnings growth predicts future investment and PPI forecast errors. We find, at best, weak evidence for the consumption-based link between aggregate earnings growth and future inflation.

Factor investing is popular, and its adoption is accelerating. One reason it is increasingly being embraced is that portfolio return expectations seem to be evidence based. However, much of the so-called evidence consists of repeated analysis of the very datasets used to derive an investment model in the first place. To mitigate this trap, the authors estimate the risk premiums earned from factor investing over very long periods (up to 117 years) and across many markets (up to 23). They report on the long-term profitability of following strategies based on market capitalization, value versus growth, dividend yield, stock-return momentum, and low-volatility investing.

Background: South Africa is planning to introduce a carbon tax as a Pigouvian measure for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, one of the tax bases designed as a fuel input tax. In this form, it is supposed to incentivise users to reduce and/or substitute fossil fuels, leading to a reduction of CO2 emissions. Aim: This article examines how such a carbon tax regime may affect the individual willingness to invest in greenhouse gas mitigation technologies. Setting: Mathematical derivation, using methods of linear programming, duality theory and sensitivity analysis. Methods: By employing a two-step evaluation approach, it allows to identify the factors determining the maximum price an individual investor would pay for such an investment, given the conditions of imperfect markets. Results: This price ceiling depends on the (corrected) net present values of the payments and on the interdependencies arising from changes in the optimal investment and production programmes. Although the well-established results of environmental economics usually can be confirmed for a single investment, increasing carbon taxes may entail sometimes contradictory and unexpected consequences for individual investments in greenhouse gas mitigation technologies and the resulting emissions. Under certain circumstances, they may discourage such investments and, when still undertaken, even lead to higher emissions. However, these results can be interpreted in an economically comprehensible manner. Conclusion: Under the usually given conditions of imperfect markets, the impact of a carbon tax regime on individual investment decisions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions is not as straight forward as under the usually assumed, but unrealistically simplifying perfect market conditions. To avoid undesired and discouraging effects, policy makers cannot make solitary decisions, but have to take interdependencies on the addressee´s side into account. The individual investor´s price ceiling for such an investment in imperfect markets can be interpreted as a sum of (partially corrected) net present values, which themselves are a generalisation of the net present values known from perfect markets

This paper examines how uncertainty affects corporate investment under varying degrees of asset redeployability. We develop new measures of asset redeployability by accounting for the usability of assets within and across industries. We identify plausibly exogenous shocks to economic uncertainty by using major economic and political events. We find that after an increase in uncertainty, firms using less redeployable capital reduce investment more. More redeployable assets exhibit higher recovery rates and are traded more actively in secondary markets. Overall, our results suggest that frictions in redeploying assets affect liquidation values and therefore make firms cautious about investment decisions under uncertainty.

Purpose: This paper aims to extend and contribute to prior research on the association between company characteristics and choice of capital budgeting methods (CBMs). Design/methodology/approach: A multivariate regression analysis on questionnaire data from 2005 and 2008 is used to study which factors determine the choice of CBMs in Swedish listed companies. Findings: Our results supported hypotheses that Swedish listed companies have become more sophisticated over the years (or at least less unsophisticated) which indicates a closing of the theory-practice gap; that companies with greater leverage used payback more often; and that companies with stricter debt targets and less management ownership employed accounting rate of return more frequent. Moreover, larger companies used CBMs more often. Originality/value: The paper contributes to prior research within this field by being the first Swedish study to examine the association between use of CBMs and as many as twelve independent variables, including changes over time, by using multivariate regression analysis. The results are compared to a US and a continental European study. Open access

We test the effect of sentiment on returns using a sample of upstream oil stocks where we have a good proxy for fundamental value. For this sample, the influence of sentiment is highly time-varying, appearing only after the post-2000 increased interest in oil-related assets. Contrary to the hard-to-arbitrage hypothesis, sentiment affects returns on these stocks principally through their fundamentals rather than through deviations from fundamentals. Retail investor sentiment predicts short-term momentum of fundamentals and Baker–Wurgler sentiment predicts mean reversion of fundamental factors. These effects appear in a portfolio that is long hard-to-arbitrage stocks and short easy-to-arbitrage stocks, but only because this portfolio has net exposure to fundamentals.

Entrepreneurial ventures are a key source of innovation. Nowadays, ventures are backed by a wide array of investors whose complementary asset profiles differ significantly. We therefore assert that entrepreneurial ventures can no longer be studied as a homogeneous group. Rather, we harness the inherent dichotomy in the profiles of independent VCs and corporate investors to study ventures' innovation outcomes. Our sample consists of 545 U.S. biotechnology ventures founded between 1990 and 2003 and backed by independent venture capitalists (VCs) or corporate VCs (CVC). We find CVCs' investees exhibit higher rates of innovation output, compared to independent VC-backed peers. Moreover, the performance of CVC-backed ventures is sensitive to their ability to leverage corporate assets, underscoring the role of CVC accessibility and FDA approval requirements as the mechanisms associated with CVC contribution.

Serbian government has recently introduced the system of feed-in tariffs for electricity generated from renewable sources. The proposed feed-in tariff for photovoltaic electricity is set to 0.23 €/kWh paid for 12 years, with the PV electricity produced after the first 12 years being sold at the grid electricity market price for the rest of the plant lifetime. Although such FIT could have been justified by the small, average retail grid electricity price of just 0.054 €/kWh for Serbian households, the investment appraisal of a real case of 2.82 kWp PV power plant in two Serbian cities of Zlatibor and Negotin, clearly illustrates that the proposed FIT framework is not sufficient to attract investments into PV in Serbia. In the second part of the paper, we have analyzed alternative, more reasonable feed-in tarrif frameworks, with the goal of selecting those able to sustain the PV adoption and diffusion in Serbia.

Africa is a potential domain for international business. However, numerous uncertainties characterize this environment and the challenge for multinationals remains the ability to assess the true value of an Africa-bound investment project. A telecommunications’ survey was conducted on Siemens Southern Africa (Siemens) and Mobile Telecommunications’ Network (MTN) and the following observations were made: (1) Approaches used by the businesses to value Africa-bound investments were not comprehensive and inclusive. (2) Neutrality existed to the suggestion that Africa is unique and that investment decisions should be customized to suit it. (3) Certain approaches used by the businesses were modified to suit pertaining investment circumstances thereby differing from literature, and (4), participants desired to learn new ways of improving this process suggesting dissatisfaction with the current norm. This paper presents the conflicting ideologies about the decision-making process for business expansion into Africa and suggests ways of improving the process.

The US endowment model is an approach to investing popularized by Yale University that emphasizes diversification and active management of equity-oriented, illiquid assets. The writings of the British economist John Maynard Keynes were a considerable influence on the investment philosophy of Yale’s chief investment officer, David Swensen. How did Keynes gain these insights? We track Keynes’s experiences managing the King’s College, Cambridge, endowment and show how some of the lessons he learned remain relevant to endowments and foundations today.

Hydropower investments have been subject to intense criticism over environmental issues and the common experience with cost uncertainty. In this study we address the issue of uncertainty in cost projections by applying reference class forecasting (RCF) in order to improve the reliability of costs used for making decisions under uncertainty. This technique makes it possible to closely link contingency estimates to the likely incidence of uncertainty of construction costs for hydroelectric dams. A case study, the Bujagali dam in Uganda, is used to demonstrate how investment appraisal can be enhanced to better account for the risk of cost overruns. While this project has suffered from cost overruns, the net benefits of the dam are still expected to be substantial. We conclude that if historical information from the major financiers of dams is accessible, learning from the past can help to reduce the cost of uncertainty in power planning worldwide.

This paper exploits inter-temporal variations in employment protection across countries and finds that rigidities in labor markets are an important determinant of firms’ capital structure decisions. Over the 1985-2007 period, we find that reforms increasing employment protection are associated with a 187 basis point reduction in leverage. We interpret this finding to suggest that employment protection increases operating leverage, crowding out financial leverage. This result is robust across measures of employment protection and leverage, and does not appear to be due to pre-treatment differences between treated and control firms, omitted variables, unobserved changes in regional economic conditions, and reverse causality. Heterogeneous treatment effects are consistent with our economic intuition: we find that the negative effect is more pronounced in firms that are subject to frequent hiring and firing.

This study addresses the issue of investment appraisal of new technology, specifically computer numerical control (CNC) machine tools in conjunction with optimal allocation of parts and operations on CNC machines as the investments take place. Part-operation allocation is the allocation of parts and operations to either the conventional machines or to the new technology as they are acquired. It is shown that part allocation is an important consideration in the assessment of profitability from investments in CNC technology. A mixed integer programming model is presented to (1) determine the optimal allocation of parts and operations to conventional machines and to new CNC machine tools; and (2) determine the optimal investment sequence and timing of investments in CNC machine tools. The optimality criterion is based on a maximization of net present value (NPV) over a specified planning horizon. The application of the model is illustrated using a numerical example, and the implications for industrial practice are also indicated. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

This study empirically conducts the sensitivity analysis for the determinants of investment appraisal of Pakistani non-financial firms listed at Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) across sectors. We employed OLS regression along with common effect and fixed effect model on panel data pertaining to 60 non-listed firms at Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) over the period from 2003 to 2015. Empirical results document that leverage, growth, dynamism and inflation have strong positive associations with investment appraisal, however, munificence and GDP influence the process conversely. The study provides useful framework for potential investors to evaluate all these vital factors besides conventional mechanism, prior to making investment decision. Policy makers for non-financial sectors may get benefit by apply this diagnostic model to evaluate prospective investment projects for the most optimistic outcome. Corporate finance literature reveals that there is no formal evidence of determinants of capital expenditure at different levels of economic recessions; therefore, the study is pioneer effort to identify the significant determinants of investment appraisal of Pakistani listed non-financial firms across sectors, eventually, a useful contribution in existing literature.

We suggest that the failure of investors to distinguish between an earnings component’s autocorrelation coefficient (unconditional persistence) and the marginal contribution of that component’s persistence to the persistence of earnings (conditional persistence) provides a partial explanation to the post-earnings-announcement drift, the post-revenue-announcement drift, and the accrual anomaly. When the conditional persistence of revenue surprises is high (low) relative to its unconditional persistence, both the post-earnings-announcement drift and the post-revenue-announcement drift are high (low), because investors’ under-reaction to revenues and earnings is stronger when the persistence of revenue surprises is more strongly associated with the persistence of earnings surprises. Also, the mispricing of accruals decreases substantially when the conditional persistence of accruals is high relative to its unconditional persistence, because investors’ over-reaction to accruals is mitigated when the persistence of accruals is indeed more strongly associated with the persistence of earnings. Our findings also suggest that financial analysts’ failure to distinguish between unconditional and conditional persistence of revenues and accruals results in more biased revenue and earnings predictions.

In investment appraisal, uncertainty can be managed through intervals or fuzzy numbers because the arithmetical properties and the extension principle are well established and can be successfully applied in a rigorous way. We apply interval and fuzzy numbers to the Average Internal Rate of Return (AIRR), recently introduced for overcoming the problems of the traditional Internal Rate of Return (IRR). In the setting of interval and fuzzy arithmetic, we establish relations between the interim capitals invested, the profits and the cash flows, which are the ingredients of the AIRR and shed lights on the different ways uncertainty propagates depending on which variable is known and which one is derived. The relations between fuzzy AIRR and fuzzy Net Present Value are also investigated.

This paper was prepared for the purpose of presenting the methodology and uses of the Monte Carlo simulation technique as applied in the evaluation of investment projects to analyse and assess risk. The first part of the paper highlights the importance of risk analysis in investment appraisal. The second part presents the various stages in the application of the risk analysis process. The third part examines the interpretation of the results generated by a risk analysis application including investment decision criteria and various measures of risk based on the expected value concept. The final part draws some conclusions regarding the usefulness and limitations of risk analysis in investment appraisal.

This paper deals with the use of the CAPM for investment decisions and evaluations. Four different measures are deductively drawn from this model: the disequilibrium Net Present Value, the equilibrium Net Present Value, the disequilibrium Net Future Value, the equilibrium Net Future Value. It is shown that all of them may be used for accept-reject decisions, but only the equilibrium Net Present Value and the disequilibrium Net Future Value may be used for valuation, given that they enjoy the additivity property. The two nonadditive indexes cannot be deducted from the CAPM assumptions if the decision problem “invest/no invest” is reframed as “invest in Z/invest in Y”. Despite their additivity, the equilibrium Net Present Value and the disequilibrium Net Future Value are unreliable for both valuation and decision, because they do not signal arbitrage opportunities whenever there is some state of nature for which they are decreasing functions with respect to the end-of-period cash flow. In this case, the equilibrium value of a project is not the price it would have if it were traded in the security market. This result is the capital-budgeting counterpart of Dybvig and Ingersoll’s (1982) result.

Privatization has increased the number of players in the decision-making process for major transport investment decisions. The main argument of this paper is that this fragmentation is creating opportunities for strategic decision-making by each actor and that this is particularly obvious in the context of demand forecasting. This paper explores some of the specific causes and consequences of this new situation, including the perverse incentives, linked to the diversity of the objectives across the actors and to the risk allocation induced by the regulatory regime. It illustrates the issues and possible solutions from a wide range of modal and country experiences. In particular, it discusses the role of the newly independent sector regulators in reconciling these diverse goals and their limitations in view of the major information asymmetries problems they face. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

One of the debates in the capital budgeting model selection is between the free cash flow and DCF methods. In this paper an attempt is made to compare SVA against NPV model based on Monte Carlo simulations. Accordingly, NPV is found less sensitive to value driver variations and has got higher forecast errors as compared to SVA model.

The inherent difficulty of making strategic investment decisions poses significant risks that need to be mitigated. At the same time, decisions on strategic investments should be framed and justified in the company's strategic choices. In this context, one of the biggest problems known may be the excessive reliance on financial tools in evaluating investment projects. In response to this concern, some mechanisms and procedures have been developed and applied that allow the integration of strategic and financial analyzes at the level of strategic investment decision making. Examining a particular case study of a company of the automotive industry, this paper sought to understand to what extent the strategic analysis influences and relates to the business investment policy of the company. The study developed is of an exploratory nature, resorting to semi-structured interviews for data gathering. The main conclusion reached is that the evaluations supported only in financial tools are not satisfactory for the decision making proving the importance of the pre-decision mechanisms and the strategic constraints in the final decision making.

The differences between the information used for the pre-investment valuation and the valuation methods used by venture capital investors in five countries (US, UK, France, Belgium and Holland) are empirically studied. The analysis is based on postal questionnaire surveys of representative samples of senior venture capitalists in each country. Differences are found, which may be attributed to the dominant corporate governance mechanism or the level of development of the venture capital market. Between-country differences persist even after taking into account between-country differences in the relative importance of investment stages and venture capital types. Apparently similar systems and venture capital markets place varying emphases on different valuation methods, with theoretically 'correct' methods not always being preferred in practice. The findings of the study highlight the need for venture capital firms entering non-domestic markets to invest considerable effort in understanding the operation of these markets if they are to exploit fully their perceived competitive advantages and minimize the likelihood of repeating the problems experienced by venture capital entrants into foreign markets in the late 1980s.