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The UK decision to leave the EU has larger implications for Ireland due to its historical connections and significant exposure to the UK’s economy. As such, uncertainty derived from Brexit negotiations and the variety of scenarios raise significant concerns regarding the impact, the magnitude, and the lasting effects of the shock to the Irish economy. This study explores the relationship between economic and political uncertainty surrounding Brexit and its potential causal effects on the Irish economy with the support of Pesaran’s ARDL model. The agriculture, manufacturing, chemical and pharmaceutical sectors are the focus of attention as they are considered to be the most exposed to the UK market. The research findings suggest that the manufacturing and food sectors would be the most impacted in the short run with the rest of examined sectors following suit. The research findings are of particular interest to stock market players and policymakers, who can gain a better understanding of short-term dynamics on the Irish export sectors and their potential implications for Ireland. This is especially important as we consider a double economic shock due to the combined effects of Covid-19 economic shutdown and Brexit.

This paper provides an overview of Ireland’s macroeconomic performance over the past decade. In addition, to presenting the underlying facts about the boom, bust and (currently limited) recovery, the paper also discusses some common fallacies and misrepresentations of economic events in Ireland. The paper concludes with some broader lessons from the Irish experience for Eurozone economic policy and some observations on the role that EMU and the ECB have played in Ireland’s crisis.

This paper utilizes a small-scale econometric model to study the dynamics of the Irish debt-to-GDP ratio. The role of world GDP growth, domestic GDP growth, real effective exchange rate, interest rate and primary balance is analyzed in the debt dynamics. We find that the Irish economy will recover to its normal path by 2015. Policy interventions for higher primary balance and output growth, and the external positive scenarios for variables such as the world GDP growth, rate of interest and real effective exchange rate are desirable to help further reduce the debt path.

While growth in output and employment remains relatively strong in the Irish economy, there has been considerable focus recently on some high-profile job losses, particularly in the manufacturing sector. This paper places these developments within a broader context and shows that aggregate changes in the net number of jobs arise from large numbers of firms both increasing and decreasing employment simultaneously at all points in time. Even at the height of the Celtic Tiger boom when employment grew by 8 percent, this was the result of 15 percent growth in jobs by expanding firms offset by 7 percent of positions being eliminated in firms that were contracting their workforces. One important feature of job flows is that they may contribute to productivity growth by allowing movements from low to high productivity firms. To a degree, this reflects the re-allocation of jobs from declining sectors to expanding sectors, but this is not a comprehensive explanation. A significant factor underlying job flows is the reallocation within sectors from under-performing firms to expanding firms. This study also shows that productivity growth is, on balance, positive for employment growth, as it results, more often than not, in increased employment and higher earnings rather than job losses. On the other hand, these calculations also show how hard it is for policy-makers to identify firms that will be employment and productivity growth winners.

The issue of how regional labour markets adjust to shocks has received increased attention in the context of EMU, yet relatively little is known about this aspect of the Irish economy. Using the methodology developed by Blanchard and Katz (1992) this paper explores the evolution of employment, unemployment, labour force participation rates and wage rates in the regions of the Republic. The extent to which regional employment growth is self-reinforcing, the degree of hysteresis in regional unemployment and the absence of convergence in regional wage rates is discussed. The response of regions to shocks in employment is explored by estimating a log linear system in region-specific employment growth, unemployment and labour force participation rates. The implications of the findings for Irish regional development are discussed.

This paper reviews previous research on Irish unemployment. It examines the reasons for the persistence of high unemployment and the relevance of the concept of a time-varying rate of "equilibrium" unemployment in a small and open labour market. The links between Irish and British unemployment, and the effects of economic growth on Irish unemployment, are explored. The difficulty of establishing links between Irish labour market conditions and wage price inflation is documented. The paper concludes with a discussion of contribution of centralised wage bargaining to the recent impressive performance of the Irish labour market.