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Many countries affected by the global outbreak of monkeypox in 2022 have observed a decline in cases. Our mathematical model incorporating empirical estimates of the heavy-tailed sexual partnership distribution among men who have sex with men (MSM) suggests that monkeypox epidemics can hit the infection-derived herd immunity threshold and begin to decline with less than 1% of sexually active MSM population infected regardless of interventions or behavioural changes. Consistently, we found that many countries and US states experienced an epidemic peak with cumulative cases of around 0.1–0.7% of MSM population. The observed decline in cases may not necessarily be attributable to interventions or behavioural changes primarily, although continuing these approaches in the most effective manner is still warranted to minimise total epidemic size.

The outbreak of monkeypox across non-endemic regions confirmed in May 2022 shows epidemiological features distinct from previously imported outbreaks, most notably its observed growth and predominance amongst men who have sex with men (MSM). We use a transmission model fitted to empirical sexual partnership data to show that the heavy-tailed sexual partnership distribution, in which a handful of individuals have disproportionately many partners, can explain the sustained growth of monkeypox among MSM despite the absence of such patterns previously. We suggest that the basic reproduction number (R0) for monkeypox over the MSM sexual network may be substantially above 1, which poses challenges to outbreak containment. Ensuring support and tailored messaging to facilitate prevention and early detection among MSM with high numbers of partners is warranted., Science, 378(6615), pp.90-94; 2022

Monitoring time-varying vaccine effectiveness (e.g., due to waning of immunity and the emergence of novel variants) provides crucial information for outbreak control. Existing studies of time-varying vaccine effectiveness have used individual-level data, most importantly dates of vaccination and variant classification, which are often not available in a timely manner or from a wide range of population groups. We present a novel Bayesian framework for estimating the waning of variant-specific vaccine effectiveness in the presence of multi-variant circulation from population-level surveillance data. Applications to simulated outbreak and COVID-19 epidemic in Japan are also presented. Our results show that variant-specific waning vaccine effectiveness estimated from population-level surveillance data could approximately reproduce the estimates from previous test-negative design studies, allowing for rapid, if crude, assessment of the epidemic situation before fine-scale studies are made available.Author summaryThe emergence of immunity-escaping SARS-CoV-2 variants and the waning of vaccine effectiveness have highlighted the need for near-real-time monitoring of variant-specific protection in the population to guide control efforts. However, standard epidemiological studies to this end typically require access to detailed individual-level dataset, which may not be timely available in an ongoing outbreak. A more convenient and less resource-intensive approach using routinely-collected data could complement such studies by providing tentative estimates of waning vaccine effectiveness until the conclusive evidence becomes available. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian framework for estimating waning vaccine effectiveness against multiple co-circulating variants that requires only population-level surveillance data. Using simulated outbreak data of multiple variants,we showed that the proposed method can plausibly recover the ground truth from population-level data. We also applied the proposed method to empirical COVID-19 data in Japan, which yielded estimates that are overall in line with those derived from studies using individual-level data.

COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against death in Japan remains unknown. Furthermore, although evidence indicates that healthcare capacity influences case-fatality risk (CFR), it remains unknown whether this relationship is mediated by age. With a modeling study, we analyzed daily COVID-19 cases and deaths during January-August 2021 by using Tokyo surveillance data to jointly estimate COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against death and age-specific CFR. We also examined daily healthcare operations to determine the association between healthcare burden and age-specific CFR. Among fully vaccinated patients, vaccine effectiveness against death was 88.6% among patients 60-69 years of age, 83.9% among patients 70-79 years of age, 83.5% among patients 80-89 years of age, and 77.7% among patients90 years of age. A positive association of several indicators of healthcare burden with CFR among patients70 years of age suggested an age-dependent effect of healthcare burden on CFR in Japan.

A global outbreak of monkeypox across non-endemic regions including Europe and North America was confirmed in May 2022. The current outbreak has shown distinct epidemiological features compared with past outbreaks in non-endemic settings, most notably its observed rapid growth and predominant spread among men who have sex with men (MSM). We use a branching process transmission model fitted to empirical sexual partnership data in the UK to show that the heavy-tailed nature of the sexual partnership degree distribution, where a small fraction of individuals have disproportionately large numbers of partners, can explain the sustained growth of monkeypox cases among the MSM population despite the absence of such patterns of spread in past outbreaks. We also suggest that the basic reproduction number (R0) for monkeypox over the MSM sexual contact network may be substantially greater than 1 for a plausible range of assumptions, which poses a challenge to outbreak containment efforts. Ensuring ongoing support and tailored public health messaging to facilitate prevention and early detection among MSM with a large number of sexual partners is warranted.

Background Although carcinoma metastasis to primary intracranial neoplasms has occasionally been reported, metastasis to a cerebral arteriovenous malformation (AVM) has been exceedingly rare, with only 5 cases reported to date. In the present study, we have reported a case of lung carcinoma that had metastasized to a cerebral AVM. To the best of our knowledge, the present report is the first case in which the pathological examination detected the bleeding mechanism of this rare condition, showing destruction of the feeders by the metastatic tumor. Case Description A 61-year-old man who had had a tumor shadow in the right middle lung field identified at a medical examination 5 weeks previously had suddenly experienced a disturbance of consciousness. Head computed tomography and computed tomography angiography revealed a right occipital subcortical hemorrhage with abnormal vessels, suggesting a ruptured AVM. Magnetic resonance imaging with gadolinium-based contrast agents did not show any other lesions. Cerebral angiography revealed a Spetzler-Martin grade III AVM in the right occipital lobe. Endovascular feeder embolization and subsequent removal of the AVM were performed. Histopathological examination of the resected mass showed a small cell carcinoma that had metastasized to the AVM. The tumor cells had infiltrated to the vessel walls of the feeders, which might have elicited the bleeding. Conclusion Although rare, clinicians should recognize that undifferentiated carcinomas can metastasize to AVMs and cause bleeding. Because the preoperative diagnosis can be difficult, even using the latest imaging modalities, careful examination of the resected specimen is required to reveal such pathological conditions.

Background Intraoperative confirmation of the vascular anatomy and blood flow contributes to the safety of the surgery for perimedullary arteriovenous fistulas (PAVF). However, because the PAVF at the craniocervical junction (CCJ) is mainly located on the ventral spinal cord surface, it is difficult to observe the entire pathology by a conventional surgical approach. To achieve increased viewing angle and visualization of real time blood flow, we introduced endoscope-integrated fluorescein video angiography in the treatment for PAVF at the CCJ for the first time. Case Description A 63-year-old man presented with subarachnoid hemorrhage due to rupture of PAVF at the CCJ, fed by both the right C1 radiculomedullary artery and the anterior spinal artery (ASA). Suboccipital craniotomy and C1 hemilaminotomy was performed and microscopic observation revealed partial anatomy of the PAVF covered by subarachnoid clots on the ventrolateral surface at the right C1 nerve root level. However, pathology ventral to the C1 nerve root was obscure and an endoscope-integrated fluorescein video angiography was introduced, which clearly demonstrated the PAVF components and the ASA. Conclusions According to these findings, the PAVF was coagulated and the ASA was preserved. Endoscope-integrated fluorescein video angiography allowed to visualize its real-time blood flow, leading to a safe and reliable treatment.

Background Early and late images of 123I-iomazenil (123I-IMZ) single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) are considered to show cerebral blood flow and neuronal activity, respectively, and this modality may demonstrate temporal dysfunction of the frontal lobes in obstructive hydrocephalus. In this report, we examined 123I-IMZ SPECT in a patient with chronic obstructive hydrocephalus owing to compression of the aqueduct by a partially thrombosed aneurysm of the left posterior cerebral artery for the first time. Case Description A woman aged 77 years presented with progression of cognitive decline, gait disturbance, and urinary incontinence. She had a medical history of epilepsy and subarachnoid hemorrhage due to a ruptured left posterior cerebral artery aneurysm, treated conservatively when she was age 56 years. Magnetic resonance imaging revealed a mass lesion in the pineal region, which showed a target sign with gadolinium-based contrast agents, causing obstructive hydrocephalus owing to compression of the cerebral aqueduct. A right vertebral angiogram confirmed the presence of a partially thrombosed giant aneurysm at the left posterior cerebral artery. To rule out the involvement of nonconvulsive status epilepticus in her pathology, we performed 123I-IMZ SPECT, and both early and late images demonstrated low uptake in the bilateral frontal cortex. After surgical trapping of the parent artery and resection of the aneurysm, hydrocephalus was relieved, and the symptoms disappeared along with improvement in early and late 123I-IMZ SPECT images. Conclusions The findings in the present case indicate that 123I-IMZ SPECT can detect reversible cerebral blood flow reduction and neuronal viability in the frontal lobes, which may affect the clinical manifestation of obstructive hydrocephalus.

BackgroundAssessing the impact of temperature on COVID-19 epidemiology is critical for implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, few studies have accounted for the nature of contagious diseases, i.e., their dependent happenings.AimWe aimed to quantify the impact of temperature on the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Tokyo, Japan. We employed two epidemiological measurements of transmissibility and severity: the effective reproduction number (Rt) and case fatality risk (CFR).MethodsWe used empirical surveillance data and meteorological data in Tokyo to estimate the Rt and time-delay adjusted CFR and to subsequently assess the nonlinear and delay effect of temperature on Rt and time-delay adjusted CFR.ResultsFor Rt at low temperatures, the cumulative relative risk (RR) at first temperature percentile (3.3°C) was 1.3 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1-1.7). As for the virulence to humans, moderate cold temperatures were associated with higher CFR, and CFR also increased as the temperature rose. The cumulative RR at the 10th and 99th percentiles of temperature (5.8°C and 30.8°C) for CFR were 3.5 (95%CI: 1.3-10) and 6.4 (95%CI: 4.1-10.1).ConclusionsThis study provided information on the effects of temperature on the COVID-19 epidemiology using Rt and time-delay adjusted CFR. Our results suggest the importance to take precautions to avoid infection in both cold and warm seasons to avoid severe cases of COVID-19. The results and proposed framework will also help in assessing possible seasonal course of COVID-19 in the future.

A copper/prolinol-phosphine chiral catalyst enabled the one-step synthesis of chiral α-alkylidene-β-lactams. Optimization of the chiral ligand for steric and electronic properties realized the highly enantioselective coupling of nitrones and propargyl alcohol derived alkynes. The resulting chiral α-alkylidene-β-lactams served as a platform for various β-lactams via well-established transformations of α,β-unsaturated carbonyl compounds.

Phosphine organocatalysis enabled vicinal acylcyanation of alkynoates with acyl cyanides to form acrylonitrile derivatives with a tetrasubstituted alkene moiety. The acyl and cyano groups were introduced at the α and β carbon atoms, respectively, of the C-C triple bond in the alkynoates with complete regioselectivity and high anti stereoselectivity. A variety of functional groups in the acyl cyanides and alkynoates were tolerated.

Objective Confirming the exact location of a fistula and the origins of draining veins during surgery for dural and perimedullary arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) is crucial but sometimes inadequately performed, which can result in incomplete elimination of the lesion. Intraoperative digital subtraction angiography (DSA) is the gold standard for confirming the hemodynamics of an AVF; however, it cannot reveal the location of an AVF in the operative field. In this study, the efficacy of intraoperative intraarterial fluorescence video angiography during surgery for craniocervical junction dural and perimedullary AVFs was investigated. Methods We repeatedly employed this technology to evaluate its usefulness in revealing the flow dynamics and anatomy of AVFs and to confirm complete elimination of the fistula. Results Seven AVFs were included in this study. Their locations were C1 in 5 cases and C2 in 2 cases. Intraarterial fluorescence video angiography precisely revealed the locations of 3 dural AVFs, 1 perimedullary AVF, and 3 co-occurring dural and perimedullary AVFs. Frame-by-frame review of the fluorescence video angiography clearly demonstrated that fluorescence appeared earlier in the perimedullary AVF than in the draining vein through the dural AVF after intraarterial injection in all 3 co-occurring cases. Complete elimination of the AVF was also confirmed in all cases by fluorescence video angiography, as well as intraoperative and follow-up DSA. Conclusions Intraarterial fluorescence video angiography, particularly frame-by-frame review, enables surgeons to distinguish the flow dynamics of AVFs and contributes to the planning of effective surgical strategies for optimal results.

Phosphine organocatalysis enabled vicinal acylcyanation of alkynoates with acyl cyanides to form acrylonitrile derivatives with a tetrasubstituted alkene moiety. The acyl and cyano groups were introduced at the α and β carbon atoms, respectively, of the C–C triple bond in the alkynoates with complete regioselectivity and high anti stereoselectivity. A variety of functional groups in the acyl cyanides and alkynoates were tolerated.

To assess the degree of hepatic fat content, simple and noninvasive methods with high objectivity and reproducibility are required. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is one such candidate, although its accuracy remains unclear. We aimed to validate an MRI method for quantifying hepatic fat content by calibrating MRI reading with a phantom and comparing MRI measurements in human subjects with estimates of liver fat content in liver biopsy specimens. The MRI method was performed by a combination of MRI calibration using a phantom and double-echo chemical shift gradient-echo sequence (double-echo fast low-angle shot sequence) that has been widely used on a 1.5-T scanner. Liver fat content in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD, n = 26) was derived from a calibration curve generated by scanning the phantom. Liver fat was also estimated by optical image analysis. The correlation between the MRI measurements and liver histology findings was examined prospectively. Magnetic resonance imaging measurements showed a strong correlation with liver fat content estimated from the results of light microscopic examination (correlation coefficient 0.91, P < 0.001) regardless of the degree of hepatic steatosis. Moreover, the severity of lobular inflammation or fibrosis did not influence the MRI measurements. This MRI method is simple and noninvasive, has excellent ability to quantify hepatic fat content even in NAFLD patients with mild steatosis or advanced fibrosis, and can be performed easily without special devices., Article, JOURNAL OF GASTROENTEROLOGY. 45(12):1263-1271 (2010)