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Funding: European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant agreement No. 834103). Background : Previous work identifies conservative family behaviour amongst Pakistanis in the United Kingdom relative to natives, including earlier marriages, fewer dissolutions, and higher fertility. However, few studies have investigated how fertility and partnership are intertwined and interdependent. Objective : Our aims are, first, to identify differences between the family trajectories of Pakistanis and natives and, second, to determine if patterns are consistent across immigrant generations. Finally, we aim to identify how family trajectories vary across birth cohorts and education levels. Methods : We apply multichannel sequence analysis (MCSA) to data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study. We first use clustering methods to group similar individuals and then apply multinomial logistic regression to calculate the probability of belonging to a cluster based on individual characteristics. Results : The Pakistani population exhibits a higher likelihood of entering a direct marriage and having large families compared to natives. Cohabitation is rare amongst Pakistani population. These patterns have changed little between immigrant generations. Degree-level education is associated with a higher likelihood of adopting behaviours typical to ancestral natives; however, the effects are not large enough to indicate convergence. Contribution : We demonstrate the need to investigate partnership and fertility trajectories simultaneously and show the value of MCSA for identifying differences between migrant groups. The results improve our understanding of family formation patterns of Pakistani immigrants and their descendants in the United Kingdom. Publisher PDF

Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL. Since 2010, the Nordic countries have experienced substantial fertility decline. This was unexpected, as these countries have well-established systems of family support policies and they did not experience a fertility shock in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 economic recession like many other European countries. Previous studies paid little attention to the spatial dimension of this unexpected fertility change, despite evidence of large spatial variation in fertility. This paper aims to close this gap through a spatial perspective and deepen our understanding of how Nordic fertility change varies by economic and social contexts. We apply advanced spatial panel models on data for 1,099 municipalities covering Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Next to analyzing total fertility rates, we also compare the relevance of economic and social contexts for spatial fertility variation at younger or older ages. We note distinct differences by levels of urbanization and differing trends between the age groups. We also find that measures of unemployment and union stability are associated with lower levels of fertility across space and time, while support for conservative parties is related to higher fertility. Age-specific analyses highlighted that economic conditions are more relevant for fertility variation under age thirty than over age thirty. Overall, our analysis provides support for the view that both economic and social factors are highly relevant for understanding spatial variation in the Nordic fertility decline. Given the strong spatial component in Nordic fertility change, policy initiatives would also benefit from a spatial dimension to effectively address fertility change. Publisher PDF

Background Air pollution is associated with poor health; though it is unclear whether this association is stronger for ethnic minorities compared to the rest of the population. This study uses longitudinal data to investigate the spatial–temporal effect of air pollution on individuals’ reported health and its variation by ethnicity in the United-Kingdom (UK). Methods Longitudinal individual-level data from Understanding Society: the UK Household Longitudinal Study including 67,982 adult individuals with 404,264 repeated responses over 11 years (2009–2019) were utilized and were linked to yearly concentrations of NO2, SO2, and particulate-matter (PM10, PM2.5) pollution once at the local authority and once at the census Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) of residence for each individual. This allows for analysis at two geographical scales over time. The association between air pollution and individuals’ health (Likert scale: 1–5, Excellent to poor) and its variation by ethnicity was assessed using three-level mixed-effects ordered logistic models. Analysis distinguished between spatial (between areas) and temporal (across time within each area) effects of air pollution on health. Results Higher concentrations of NO2, SO2, PM10, and PM2.5 pollution were associated with poorer health. Decomposing air pollution into between (spatial: across local authorities or LSOAs) and within (temporal: across years within each local authority or LSOA) effects showed a significant between effect for NO2 and SO2 pollutants at both geographical scales, while a significant between effect for PM10 and PM2.5 was shown only at the LSOAs level. No significant within effects were detected at an either geographical level. Indian, Pakistani/Bangladeshi, Black/African/Caribbean and other ethnic groups and non-UK-born individuals reported poorer health with increasing concentrations of NO2, SO2, PM10, and PM2.5 pollutants in comparison to the British-white and UK-born individuals. Conclusion Using longitudinal data on individuals’ health linked with air pollution data at two geographical scales (local authorities and LSOAs), this study supports the presence of a spatial–temporal association between air pollution and poor self-reported health, which is stronger for ethnic minorities and foreign-born individuals in the UK, partly explained by location-specific differences. Air pollution mitigation is necessary to improve individuals’ health, especially for ethnic minorities who are affected the most.

This project is led by Hill Kulu and funded by the European Research Council under the European Commission’s Horizon 2020 Framework Programme: H2020 Excellent Science (H2020 European Research Council, grant number 834103). While there is a large literature investigating migrant marriage or fertility, little research has examined how childbearing and partnerships are interrelated. In this paper, we investigate how childbearing and partnership trajectories evolve and interact over the life course for immigrants and their descendants and how the relationship varies by migrant origin. We apply multichannel sequence analysis to rich longitudinal survey data from France and find significant differences in family-related behaviour between immigrants, their descendants, and the native French. Immigrants’ family behaviour is characterized by stronger association between marriage and childbearing than in the native population. However, there are significant differences across migrant groups. Turkish immigrants exhibit the most conservative family pathways. By contrast, the family behaviour of European immigrants is similar to that of the native population. The study also demonstrates that the family behaviour of some descendant groups has gradually become indistinguishable from that of the native French, whereas for other groups significant differences in family behaviour persist. Publisher PDF

Background Recent studies suggest an association between ambient air pollution and mental well-being, though evidence is mostly fragmented and inconclusive. Research also suffers from methodological limitations related to study design and moderating effect of key demographics (e.g., ethnicity). This study examines the effect of air pollution on reported mental well-being in United Kingdom (UK) using spatial-temporal (between-within) longitudinal design and assesses the moderating effect of ethnicity. Methods Data for 60,146 adult individuals (age:16+) with 349,748 repeated responses across 10-data collection waves (2009–2019) from “Understanding-Society: The-UK-Household-Longitudinal-Study” were linked to annual concentrations of NO2, SO2, PM10, and PM2.5 pollutants using the individuals’ place of residence, given at the local-authority and at the finer Lower-Super-Output-Areas (LSOAs) levels; allowing for analysis at two geographical scales across time. The association between air pollution and mental well-being (assessed through general-health-questionnaire-GHQ12) and its modification by ethnicity and being non-UK born was assessed using multilevel mixed-effect logit models. Results Higher odds of poor mental well-being was observed with every 10μg/m3 increase in NO2, SO2, PM10 and PM2.5 pollutants at both LSOAs and local-authority levels. Decomposing air pollution into spatial-temporal (between-within) effects showed significant between, but not within effects; thus, residing in more polluted local-authorities/LSOAs have higher impact on poor mental well-being than the air pollution variation across time within each geographical area. Analysis by ethnicity revealed higher odds of poor mental well-being with increasing concentrations of SO2, PM10, and PM2.5 only for Pakistani/Bangladeshi, other-ethnicities and non-UK born individuals compared to British-white and natives, but not for other ethnic groups. Conclusion Using longitudinal individual-level and contextual-linked data, this study highlights the negative effect of air pollution on individuals’ mental well-being. Environmental policies to reduce air pollution emissions can eventually improve the mental well-being of people in UK. However, there is inconclusive evidence on the moderating effect of ethnicity.

The work of Marika Jalovaara was funded by the Academy of Finland (decisions 275030, 321264, and 320162). The work by Hill Kulu was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council [ES/L01663X/1] under the Open Research Area Plus scheme. Background : Divorce and separation have become common life-course events in many European countries. Previous studies show that separated individuals are likely to move from homeownership to renting and to experience a period of residential instability. However, little is known about postseparation homeownership levels in the long run. Objective : This paper investigates homeownership levels after union dissolution. We extend previous research by examining changes in homeownership levels after separation by time (since union dissolution) and across population subgroups. We study whether and how postseparation homeownership levels are associated with repartnering and gender. Methods : We use Finnish register data and logistic regression analysis. Results : Compared to partnered individuals, homeownership levels among recently separated individuals are low. With increasing time since union dissolution, homeownership levels increase. However, the levels are high only among repartnered persons and remain low among separated individuals who remain single. Homeownership levels are slightly lower among separated women than among separated men. Contribution : The study shows the short- and long-term effects of separation on individuals’ housing careers. After separation many individuals move from homeownership to rental accommodation, and most previous renters continue to rent. Separated individuals who form new unions are likely to move or return to homeownership. By contrast, those who remain unpartnered following separation have a low likelihood of living in owner-occupied dwellings. This likely reflects both individuals’ choices and their constrained opportunities in a country with high homeownership aspirations and levels. Publisher PDF

Funding: This study is supported by China Scholarship Council (CSC No. 201703780011), People’s Republic of China, and Population and Health Research Group (PHRG), School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, United Kingdom. PM2.5 data in this study is from the work of Yang Liu, supported by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences of the National Institutes of Health, USA (Grant No. 1R01ES032140). This study is also supported by the Centre for Population Change (CPC) (ES/R009139/1). While previous studies have emphasised the role of individual factors in understanding multimorbidity disparities, few have investigated contextual factors such as air pollution (AP). We first use cross-sectional latent class analysis (LCA) to assess the associations between PM2.5 exposure and multimorbidity disease clusters, and then estimate the associations between PM2.5 exposure and the development of multimorbidity longitudinally using growth curve modelling (GCM) among adults aged 45–85 in China. The results of LCA modelling suggest four latent classes representing three multimorbidity patterns (respiratory, musculoskeletal, cardio-metabolic) and one healthy pattern. The analysis shows that a 1 μg/m3 increase in cumulative exposure to PM2.5 is associated with a higher likelihood of belonging to respiratory, musculoskeletal or cardio-metabolic clusters: 2.4% (95% CI: 1.02, 1.03), 1.5% (95% CI: 1.01, 1.02) and 3.3% (95% CI: 1.03, 1.04), respectively. The GCM models show that there is a u-shaped association between PM2.5 exposure and multimorbidity, indicating that both lower and higher PM2.5 exposure is associated with increased multimorbidity levels. Higher multimorbidity in areas of low AP is explained by clustering of musculoskeletal diseases, whereas higher AP is associated with cardio-metabolic disease clusters. The study shows how multimorbidity clusters vary contextually and that PM2.5 exposure is more detrimental to health among older adults. Publisher PDF

Since 2010, some of the Nordic countries have experienced fertility declines down to unprecedented levels. Fertility decline in the Nordic countries was unexpected for most experts, considering that these countries were not heavily affected by the 2008 economic recession which was related to fertility declines in other European countries. Researchers have sought to understand why fertility is declining in these countries but have so far paid little attention to the spatial dimension of this process, despite evidence of large spatial variation of fertility. This paper contributes new understanding to the role of space in Nordic fertility changa and how the uncertainty perspective is related to spatial patterns of fertility. We apply advanced spatial panel models to data covering 1,099 municipalities in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden to separate out spatial variation and temporal variation. Our models use both economic (employment, income) and social (partnership dissolution, voting) measures of uncertainty to explore how uncertainty is related to fertility. Results show that fertility levels and trends by age vary substantially by level of urbanization. Differences in uncertainty by age appear essential to spatial variation – while social contexts are related to variation at all ages, economic measures are more related to fertility under age thirty than over age thirty. In addition, stability in fertility over age thirty seems to be an important buffer for the overall rate of total fertility decline, especially in rural municipalities.

Objectives. To investigate how COVID-19-related health and socio-economic vulnerabilities occur at the household level, and how they are distributed across household types and geographical areas in the United Kingdom. Design. Cross-sectional, nationally representative study. Setting. The United Kingdom. Participants. ~19,500 households. Main outcome measures. Using multiple household-level indicators and principal components analysis, we derive summary measures representing different dimensions of household vulnerabilities critical during the COVID-19 epidemic: health, employment, housing, financial and digital. Results. Our analysis highlights three key findings. First, although COVID-19 health risks are concentrated in retirement-age households, a substantial proportion of working age households also face these risks. Second, different types of households exhibit different vulnerabilities, with working-age households more likely to face financial, housing and employment precarities, and retirement-age households health and digital vulnerabilities. Third, there are area-level differences in the distribution of vulnerabilities across England and the constituent countries of the United Kingdom. Conclusions. The findings imply that the short- and long-term consequences of the COVID-19 crisis are likely to vary by household type. Policy measures that aim to mitigate the health and socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic should consider how vulnerabilities cluster together across different household types, and how these may exacerbate already existing inequalities.

Background: The global COVID-19 pandemic means that people spend much more time in their immediate households, elevating the importance of intersecting househol

Supplementary_material_v2 for Trends in multimorbidity, complex multimorbidity and multiple functional limitations in the ageing population of England, 2002–2015 by Leo Singer, Mark Green, Francisco Rowe, Yoav Ben-Shlomo, Hill Kulu and Karyn Morrissey in Journal of Comorbidity

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007‒2013) for the research project FamiliesAndSocieties under grant agreement no. 320116. Background : Previous research has shown high total fertility among certain UK-born ethnic minorities, but the reasons behind their high fertility have remained far from clear. Some researchers attribute their elevated fertility levels to cultural factors, whereas others argue that high fertility is the consequence of their poor education and labour market prospects. Objective : This study investigates fertility among the descendants of immigrants in the UK and examines the determinants of high fertility among certain ethnic minority groups. Methods : We use data from the Understanding Society study and apply multivariate event history analysis. Results : The analysis shows, first, that relatively high second-, third-, and fourth-birth rates are responsible for the elevated total fertility among certain UK-born minorities, especially women of Pakistani and Bangladeshi origin. There is little variation in the first-birth rates among natives and immigrant descendants. Second, although fertility differences between ethnic minorities and native British women slightly decrease once religiosity and number of siblings are controlled for, significant differences persist. We conclude that cultural factors account for some elevated fertility among ethnic groups in the UK, whereas the role of education and employment seem to be only minor. Publisher PDF

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no. 320116 for the research project FamiliesAndSocieties. This study investigates formation of endogamous and exogamous marriages among immigrants and their descendants in the UK. While there is a growing literature on various aspects of ethnic minorities’ lives in Britain, their marriage patterns have been little studied and understood. We apply event-history analysis to data from the Understanding Society study and use multiple imputation to determine the type of marriage for individuals with missing information on the origin of their spouse. The analysis shows, first, significant differences among immigrants and their descendants in the likelihood of marrying within and outside of their ethnic groups. While immigrants from European countries have relatively high exogamous marriage rates, South Asians exhibit a high likelihood of marrying a partner from their own ethnic group; Caribbeans hold an intermediate position. Second, the descendants of immigrants have lower endogamous and higher exogamous marriage rates than their parents; however, for some ethnic groups, particularly for South Asians the differences across generations are small. Third, the exogamy rates are high among ethnic minority women and men with better English skills, individuals who are less religious and those who are older at first marriage. Fourth, highly-educated native British men have an elevated likelihood of forming an inter-ethnic marriage; exogamous marriages are also formed at later ages among the native men and women. Publisher PDF

The aim of this study is to investigate spatial mobility over time. Research on 'new mobilities' suggests increasing movement of individuals, technology, and information. By contrast, studies of internal migration report declining spatial mobility in recent decades. Using longitudinal register data from Sweden, we calculate annual order-specific migration rates to investigate the spatial mobility of young adults over the last three decades. We standardize mobility rates for educational enrolment, educational level, family status, and place of residence to determine how much changes in individuals' life domains explain changes in mobility. Young adults' migration rates increased significantly in the 1990s; although all order-specific migration rates increased, first migration rates increased the most. Changes in population composition, particularly increased enrolment in higher education, accounted for much of the elevated spatial mobility in the 1990s. The analysis supports neither ever increasing mobility nor a long-term rise in rootedness among young adults in Sweden.

Recent research has found a migrant mortality advantage among immigrants relative to the UK-born population living in England and Wales. However, while all-cause mortality is useful to show differences in mortality between immigrants and the host population, it can mask variation in mortality patterns from specific causes of death. This study analyses differences in the causes of death among immigrants living in England and Wales. We extend previous research by applying competing-risks survival analysis to study a large-scale longitudinal dataset from 1971 to 2012 to directly compare causes of death. We confirm low all-cause mortality among nearly all immigrants, except immigrants from Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland (who have high mortality). In most cases, low all-cause mortality among immigrants is driven by lower mortality from chronic diseases (in nearly all cases by lower cancer mortality and in some cases by lower mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD)). This low all-cause mortality often coexists with low respiratory disease mortality and among non-western immigrants, coexists with high mortality from infectious diseases; however, these two causes of death contribute little to mortality among immigrants. For men, CVD is the leading cause of death (particularly among South Asians). For women, cancer is the leading cause of death (except among South Asians, for whom CVD is also the leading cause). Differences in CVD mortality over time remain constant between immigrants relative to UK-born, but immigrant cancer patterns shows signs of some convergence to the cancer mortality among the UK-born (though cancer mortality is still low among immigrants by age 80). The study provides the most up-to-date, reliable UK-based analysis of immigrant mortality.

This paper investigates the effects of marital and non-marital separation on individuals' housing tenure in England and Wales. We apply competing risks event history models to data from the British Household Panel Survey and the UK Household Longitudinal Study to analyse the risk of a residential move to different tenure types, for single, married, cohabiting, and separated men and women. Separated individuals are more likely to move and experience a tenure change than those who are single or in a relationship. Among separated people, private renting is the most common outcome of a move; however, women are also likely to move to social renting, whereas men tend to move to homeownership. This pattern persists when we account for time since separation and order of move, indicating a potential long-term effect of separation on housing tenure. This long-term effect is especially pertinent to separated women who cannot afford homeownership.

Previous research shows low mortality for most immigrants compared to natives in host countries. This advantage is often attributed to health selection processes in migration and to protective health behaviours. Little research has examined the role of data quality, especially the registration of moves. Registration errors relating to moves between origin and host countries can mismatch deaths and risk populations, leading to denominator bias and an under-estimation of migrant mortality (data artefact). The paper investigates the mortality of immigrants in England and Wales from 1971 to 2001 using the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study (ONS LS), a 1% sample of the population of England and Wales. We apply parametric survival models to study the mortality of 450,000 individuals. We conduct sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of entry and exit uncertainty on immigrant mortality rates. The analysis shows that most international migrants have lower mortality than natives in England and Wales. Differences largely persist when we adjust models to entry and exit uncertainty and they become pronounced once we control for individual socioeconomic characteristics. This study supports low mortality among immigrants and shows that results are not a data artefact.

This study examines fertility variation by residential context in Britain. While there is a large literature on fertility trends and determinants in industrialised countries, to date longitudinal research on spatial fertility variation has been restricted to the Nordic countries. We study fertility variation across regions of different sizes, and within urban regions by distinguishing between central cities and suburbs. We use vital statistics and longitudinal data and apply event history analysis. We investigate the extent to which the socio-economic characteristics of couples and selective migrations explain fertility variation between residential contexts, and the extent to which contextual factors potentially play a role. Our analysis shows that fertility levels decline as the size of an urban area increases; within urban regions suburbs have significantly higher fertility levels than city centres. Differences in fertility by residential context persist when we control for the effect of population composition and selective migrations. Publisher PDF

This study investigates the effect of native/immigrant intermarriage on divorce. We used a rich longitudinal dataset from the German Socio-Economic Panel and applied event-history techniques to examine the risk of divorce among immigrants in Germany. Our analysis of the divorce rates of 5,648 marriages shows that immigrant couples have a lower risk of divorce than do natives. However, marriages between German-born individuals and immigrants have a higher likelihood of separation than marriages between two German-born individuals or between immigrants from the same country, supporting the exogamy hypothesis. This pattern largely persists when controlling for the socio-demographic and human-capital characteristics of the spouses. The divorce risk increases with the cultural distance between the partners and when the spouses demonstrate differences in their social backgrounds, also supporting the heterogamy hypothesis and the selectivity hypothesis. We found no support for the adaptation and convergence hypotheses. Divorce levels for mixed marriages are neither similar to the levels of one of the constituent origin groups, nor do they fall between the levels of the two groups; the divorce levels for native/immigrant marriages are higher than those for endogamous marriages.

This study examines the health of migrants between England and Scotland comparing their health patterns with those of origin and host populations. While there is a growing literature on the health and mortality of international migrants, few studies have investigated the health of people moving within a country. We use individual-level data from the UK 1991 population census and apply the technique of logistic regression to analyse health differences between migrants and non-migrants. The analysis of the prevalence of a limiting long-term illness shows that on average migrants have better health than non-migrants. Scottish migrants are origin country selective by health, whereas English migrants are host country selective by health. English men in older working ages show significant health advantages over both origin and host populations. No evidence was found to support a Salmon Bias. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Kulu H. Why do fertility levels vary between urban and rural areas?, Regional Studies. This study examines the causes of fertility variation across settlements. It uses rich longitudinal data from Finland and applies event history analysis. Analysis shows that fertility levels are the highest in small towns and rural areas and the lowest in the capital city, as expected. The socio-economic characteristics of women and selective migrations account for only a small portion of fertility variation across settlements. Housing conditions explain a significant portion of urban–rural fertility variation for the first birth, but little variation for the second and the third births. The analysis suggests that there are also significant contextual effects. Kulu H. 为什么生育水平存在城乡差异？区域研究。 本研究考察了导致不同地域生育差异的原因。研究采纳了芬兰历年数据并将其运用于历史分析。分析与预期一致：小城镇以及乡村地区生育水平最高，首都最低。妇女的社会经济特征以及选择性移民对于不同地域生育差异产生部分影响。家庭状况构成了城乡首胎生育差异的主要因素，但是对二胎三胎差异影响不大。分析表明，也存在较为明显的语境效应。 生育 城市 农村 事件历史分析 北欧 芬兰 Kulu H. Expliquer la variation urbano-rurale de la fecon...

The aims of this study were to examine spatial variation in the risk of union dissolution (divorce or separation) and to investigate the causes of this variation. Although there is an increased interest in variations in divorce and separation across countries, surprisingly, few studies have examined the spatial variation in the levels of union disruption within countries. Using rich retrospective survey data from Austria, we examined the relative contributions of demographic and socio-economic characteristics, selective migrations, and contextual factors to spatial variation in the risk of union dissolution. Our study showed, first, that union dissolution levels varied significantly across counties, as expected. Second, geographical differences in the type of union (cohabitation or marriage) accounted for some spatial variation in the risk of separation. Third, the socio-economic characteristics of couples and selective migrations did not explain any of the spatial variations in the union dissolution levels. Fourth, a significant spatial variation in separation and divorce after controlling for compositional factors suggested that there were also contextual factors. We examined the role of various contextual characteristics for explaining spatial variation in divorce and separation, including the level of urbanisation, economic well-being of an area, and characteristics measuring the cultural-normative climate of a region. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A number of studies show that premarital cohabitation is associated with an increased risk of subsequent marital dissolution. Some argue that this is a consequence of selection effects and that once these are controlled for premarital cohabitation has no effect on dissolution. We examine the effect of premarital cohabitation on subsequent marital dissolution by using rich retrospective life-history data from Austria. We model union formation and dissolution jointly to control for unobserved selectivity of cohabiters and non-cohabiters. Our results show that those who cohabit prior to marriage have a higher risk of marital dissolution. However, once observed and unobserved characteristics are controlled for, the risks of marital dissolution for those who cohabit prior to marriage are significantly lower than for those who marry directly. The finding that premarital cohabitation decreases the risk of marital separation provides support for the "trial marriage" theory. (ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.) 1. Introduction The number of marriages ending in divorce rose rapidly in most developed nations during the 1970s and 1980s. Although divorce rates began to stabilise in the 1990s in some countries, they continued to rise in others. It has been shown that many factors are related to marriage dissolution, including women's increasing financial independence as their role in the labour market grows (Becker 1981; Hoem and Hoem 1992) and gender inequalities in wages gradually diminish (Davis and Joshi 1998); changes in gender roles (Kalmijn, de Graaf, and Poortman 2004; Lye and Biblarz 1993); factors related to the parental home, including parental separation (Amato 1996; Kiernan 1986); personal characteristics, such as educational qualifications (Hoem 1997a; Morgan and Rindfuss 1985); religious attitudes (Balakrishnan et al. 1987; Kalmijn, de Graaf, and Janssen 2005); the presence of one's own children (Erlangsen and Andersson 2001; Hoem 1997b; Morgan and Rindfuss 1985; Waite and Lillard 1991); the duration of the union (Chan and Halpin 2003); the partners' age at union formation (Tzeng and Mare 1995); the age gap between partners (Chan and Halpin 2003); the number of previous unions (O'Connor et al. 1999); and the place of residence and migration histories (Boyle et al. 2008; Muszynska and Kulu 2007). Recent research has also compared the relative influence of some of these factors across countries (Harkonen and Dronkers 2006; Liefborer and Dourleijn 2006). A detailed review of the factors associated with separation and divorce is provided by Amato (2010) and Lyngstad and Jalovaara (2010). An additional factor that has generated considerable debate in the literature, and is becoming an increasingly common phenomenon, is the role of premarital cohabitation (Bumpass, Sweet, and Cherlin 1991; Ermisch and Francesconi 2000; Gabrielli and Hoem 2010; Hoem et al. 2009; Thornton and Philipov 2009). While some might imagine that premarital cohabitation would stabilise subsequent married unions, most of the literature suggests that it is in fact related to higher risks of marital dissolution. Various reasons for this empirical finding have been suggested, but one important factor that has not usually been controlled for adequately is the role of unobserved selection. Those who cohabit prior to marriage may have different unmeasured characteristics compared to those who do not and, if true, selection effects may mask the positive role that premarital cohabitation plays in subsequent marital stability. The aim of this paper is to examine the effect of premarital cohabitation on divorce. We first study the relationship between premarital cohabitation and divorce with and without controlling for a set of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of women and their partners. We then control for unmeasured characteristics of those who cohabit prior to marriage and those who marry directly to determine whether selection effects mask the "true" relationship between premarital cohabitation and divorce. …

This research was possible through funding by the Economic and Social Research Council (ES/J500094/1; “Mortality among Immigrants and their Descendants in England and Wales”) and North West Doctoral Training Centre. Despite researchers regularly observing a migrant mortality advantage in high‐income destination countries, it remains unclear whether empirically observed low mortality among foreign‐born relative to natives is genuine or a result of censoring and selection biases inherent in the remigration of foreign‐born individuals. Our aim is to determine whether the main mode of selection bias, the “salmon bias effect” (remigration triggered by poor health), can account for this low foreign‐born mortality. We use the largest longitudinal resource in the United Kingdom, the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study, to fit discrete‐time survival models and observe which foreign‐born populations experience a migrant mortality advantage and/or salmon bias effect. For foreign‐born groups in which we observe both, we correct their mortality (using an indirect method) to see if the salmon bias can explain the observed mortality advantage. Importantly, we demonstrate that for many foreign‐born groups a mortality advantage exists in the absence of the salmon bias effect. Furthermore, in cases which we observe a mortality advantage and salmon bias (males and females from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, and the Caribbean), the latter cannot sufficiently “explain away” the former. Taken together with previous findings on censoring bias in the United Kingdom and the wider international literature on censoring and selection biases, it becomes clear that remigration biases alone cannot sufficiently explain the migrant mortality advantage. Postprint

This study examines fertility variation across different residential contexts in four Northern European countries: Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. We move beyond the conventional urban-rural focus of most previous studies of within-nation variations in fertility by distinguishing between urban centres and suburbs of cities and towns. We base our study on aggregate and individual-level register data and our analysis shows that fertility levels are significantly higher in suburbs than in urban centres; this pattern has persisted over the past quarter of a century for all four countries. A parity-specific analysis of Swedish register data reveals that total fertility varies between central cities and suburbs due to the relatively high first- and second-birth propensities in the suburbs. Further analysis shows that fertility variation between the central cities and suburbs persists after controlling for women's socioeconomic characteristics. We discuss the role of various factors in accounting for high suburban fertility including omitted individual characteristics, contextual factors and selective residential moves of couples planning to have a child.

Fertility rates are known to be higher in city suburbs. One interpretation is that the suburban ‘context’ influences the behaviour of individuals who reside there while an alternative is that the ‘composition’ of the suburban population explains the higher fertility levels. Furthermore, suburban in-migrants who intend to have children may have a significant influence on suburban fertility rates. Using Finnish longitudinal register data we show that fertility rates are higher in the suburbs and rural areas and lower in the cities. Fertility variation across these residential contexts decreases significantly after controlling for women’s demographic and socio-economic characteristics. However, it does not disappear entirely suggesting that the local context may have some influence on fertility. While movers to suburbs do display higher fertility levels than non-migrant residents, their overall impact is not great because they form a small share of the suburban population.

There is a growing body of literature looking at the interplay between an individual's residential and other careers in the life course. Previous research has mostly studied the impact of partnership and employment changes on spatial mobility. The author focuses on the effect of child-bearing on migrations and residential moves. The study is based on retrospective event-history data from Austria, to which intensity (or hazard) regression is applied. The analysis suggests, first, that the birth of a child triggers housing-related and environment-related residential relocations. These are mostly moves within a labour-market area, but there are also migrations from cities to rural areas. Second, growing family size significantly reduces couples' wishes to and chances of moving over long distances for a job. The event of first conception also induces moves related to partnership formation.

This paper examines the effect of migration and residential mobility on union dissolution among married and cohabiting couples. Moving is a stressful life event, and a large, multidisciplinary literature has shown that family migration often benefits one partner (usually the man) more than the other. Even so, no study to date has examined the possible impact of within-nation geographical mobility on union dissolution. We base our longitudinal analysis on retrospective event-history data from Austria. Our results show that couples who move frequently have a significantly higher risk of union dissolution, and we suggest a variety of mechanisms that may explain this.

This article is an introduction to Special Collection 6 of Demographic Research whose articles investigate the interrelations between the family and migration behaviour of individuals in industrialised countries. We first review the life-course approach and previous research on the interplay between family change and migration. We then describe the contribution of the articles in the collection. This is followed by a discussion of selected issues raised in the papers and an outline of future research avenues. We argue that the life-course approach and event-history analysis offer a fruitful framework to examine how individuals simultaneously structure their family lives and residential trajectories and thus shape demographic change in society. (authors)

A growing body of literature looks at the consequences of family migration from a gender perspective. The studies show that women’s economic well-being and employment suffer from family migration, which is usually stimulated by the career of the male earner in the family. This study extends current research on the subject by examining the effect of family migration on union dissolution. We use the event-history data of two retrospective surveys from Russia and apply hazard regression. The analysis shows that couples who move frequently over long distances have a significantly higher risk of union dissolution than couples who do not move or move only once. Our further analysis reveals that the risk of disruption for frequent movers is high when the migrant woman has a job. Frequent migrants had a high risk of union dissolution in the Soviet period but not so during the post-Soviet socio-economic transition. We argue that frequent moving increases union instability through a variety of mechanisms, the effect of which may vary across socio-economic contexts, however.

This article is an introduction to Special Collection 6 of Demographic Research whose articles investigate the interrelations between the family and migration behaviour of individuals in industrialised countries. We first review the life-course approach and previous research on the interplay between family change and migration. We then describe the contribution of the articles in the collection. This is followed by a discussion of selected issues raised in the papers and an outline of future research avenues. We argue that the life-course approach and event-history analysis offer a fruitful framework to examine how individuals simultaneously structure their family lives and residential trajectories, and thus shape demographic change in society.

This study examines fertility variation across housing types and childbearing patterns after housing changes. While the effect of family changes on housing choices has been studied in detail, little is known about childbearing patterns within various housing types, despite the fact that many studies suggest housing as an important determinant of fertility. We use longitudinal register data from Finland and apply hazard regression. Firstly, we observe a significant variation in the fertility levels across housing types - fertility is highest among couples in single-family houses and lowest among those in apartments, with the variation remaining significant even after controlling for the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of women. Secondly, our results show elevated fertility levels after couples have changed their housing, suggesting that much of the fertility variation across housing types could be attributed to selective moves. Thirdly, the study also reveals relatively a high risk of third birth for couples in single-family houses several years after the move, suggesting that living in spacious housing and in a family-friendly environment for a longer time may lead to higher fertility.

Researchers are divided on the trends and causes of internal migration in postsocialist Central and Eastern Europe. Theories run in opposite directions: some scholars argue that increasing similarities with Western market economies are explaining the migration processes, whereas others claim that specific developments during the postsocialist socioeconomic restructuring are playing a major role. In this paper we contribute to the existing discussion by providing an analysis of personal and contextual determinants of migration to urban and rural destinations in post-Soviet Estonia. We base our study on the data of the Estonian Labour Force Survey from 1995. Our research population consists of 8480 people aged 15 years to 68 years in early 1989. We analyze the intensity of urban-bound and rural-bound migration from January 1989 to December 1994, using the techniques of multilevel event-history analysis. We show that personal characteristics (age, marital status, employment status, education, and ethnicity) and contextual factors (unemployment level and the share of ethnic minorities) are both important in shaping the intensity of migration to urban and rural destinations in post-Soviet Estonia. Although the differences in migration behaviour by demographic characteristics in Estonia are in line with universalistic explanations, the regionally varying effect of socioeconomic status on migration is specific to developments in postsocialist countries, as a result of general economic hardship during the socioeconomic transition.

The restoration of independence in 1991 brought the topic of ethnic integration into the forefront of societal discussions in Estonia. Two diverging views emerged about the factors that shape the process. Demographic view stresses the long term (generations-related) perspective and factors that do not depend on people themselves. Sociological view emphasizes the importance of individual choices and values in the new political and economic context. The aim of this article is to study the arguments of both views. We analyze the determinants of Estonian language skills among ethnic minorities of Estonia. Our analysis shows that the demographic factors create a favorable context for the improvement of Estonian language skills of ethnic minorities, but the sociological factors (especially education) together with the geographical ones (location in Estonia) have a critical role, especially from the perspective of future integration policies..

Kulu H. and Billari F. C. (2004) Multilevel analysis of internal migration in a transitional country: the case of Estonia, Regional Studies38, 679-696. Recent geographical migration studies have aimed at clarifying the impact of both social environment and people's desires and beliefs on migration behaviour. However, most studies have focused on migration in Western countries, using cross-sectional data and single level methods. In this paper, we study the determinants of internal migration in Estonia, a multicultural society, during the transition period (1989-94). We use longitudinal data and apply multilevel event history methods. We show that both personal and contextual (potentially time-varying) factors are important in determining migration propensity. Moreover, several personal determinants−age, employment status, ethnic origin−interact with environmental conditions in shaping behaviour. While our results of the age differences support a traditional life-course-related migration pattern, our resul...

Research on the residential and housing differences of urban populations in post-second world war Central and Eastern Europe has a tradition extending back to the 1960s. Most studies have focused on the Polish, Czech and Hungarian (large) cities using aggregatelevel data and testing simultaneously the impact of a few factors on residential and housing differences. This research clarifies the housing differences in the late Soviet era of Tartu (the second largest city in Estonia). Using the individual-level data of the 1989 Soviet census and multivariate methods, the article demonstrates that several factors (age, education, occupation, employment sector, ethnic origin, place of origin) shape the individual's housing and living conditions in the late Soviet period in Tartu. On the one hand, the results support the importance of the policy of different institutions (state, enterprises) in shaping people's living conditions; on the other hand, they also point to people's resources and desires as the cause. Depuis les annees 1960, on trouve regulierement des recherches sur les differences de quartier et de logement des populations urbaines dans l'Europe centrale et orientale de l'apres-guerre. La plupart des etudes sont consacrees aux (grandes) villes polonaises, tcheques et hongroises, a partir de donnees globales, et testent simultanement l'impact de quelques facteurs sur les differences de quartier et de logement. Cet article eclaire les differences d'habitat a Tartu (deuxieme ville d'Estonie) vers la fin de l'ere sovietique. Se basant sur les donnees individuelles du recensement sovietique de 1989 et sur des methodes multivariables, il demontre que plusieurs facteurs (âge, instruction, emploi, secteur d'activite, origine ethnique, lieu de naissance) configurent les conditions de logement et de vie des habitants de Tartu a cette epoque. D'un cote, les resultats confirment l'importance de la politique de diverses institutions (etat, entreprises) dans les conditions de vie de la population; de l'autre, ils revelent aussi comme cause les ressources et aspirations des gens.

Conventional research has used aggregate statistics and bivariate methods in studying migration in Soviet society and has stressed the critical role of a single (usually structural) determinant in an individuals migration. This research tests the dominant view using individual level data and multivariate methods. The objective is to clarify the extent to which structural-environmental factors and the extent to which personal characteristics determined the first residence and migration of Russian-born Estonians in post-war Estonia. The data of the retrospective survey on 265 ethnic Estonians born in Russia between 1915 and 1969 and settled in Estonia between 1940 and 1988 are used. It appears that the first residence and migration of the ethnic Estonians was shaped by an immigration cohort -- the variable reflecting structural-environmental conditions. However several personal characteristics -- age earlier life-environment language usage and education -- also turned out to be important determinants of residence and migration of the ethnic Estonians. The results provide evidence to the view that migration in the Soviet Union was a complex outcome of interaction of structural forces and peoples references and therefore differed less from other parts of the world than often presumed. (authors)

Two European geographers survey the change in numbers, location, and composition of Estonia's non-titular population utilizing census returns for the period 1934-2000. Much attention is devoted to an investigation of return migration of non-Estonians to other FSU republics in the 1990s. Also covered are changes in the spatial distribution of Estonia's minorities and the dynamics of age structure as a result of its natural evolution, the sharp decline in fertility, and emigration of younger cohorts. Additionally, the authors also investigate trends in employment affecting the country's principal ethnic minorities. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J10, J11, R23. 8 figures, 3 tables, 56 references.

In this paper I study the choice of residence of ethnic Estonians from the Soviet Union in Estonia. The aim is to clarify the extent to which the differences in the current residence of ethnic return migrants stem from their childhood growth environment. First, the groups of foreign-born Estonians are compared based on 1989 Soviet census data. The ethnic return migrants' place of residence is significantly related to their level of education and language skills: two variables corresponding to their previous residence, migration experience, and generational belonging. Second, the survey data are used to measure how closely the return migrants' current level of education and language skills correspond to their early socialization environment. The parents' level of education and the language of childhood significantly impact upon the level of education and language skills that return migrants have today. However, the current differences in the level of education and language skills have also been influenced by their life environment in Estonia. Yet, even when the influence of the current life environment on these variables has been eliminated, the levels of education and language skills appear to be an important source of the differences in residence. Thus, the research supports the idea that an individual's earlier socialization environment has a critical impact on their choice of residence.

Previous studies have shown that the risk of divorce is low during the first months of marriage; it then increases, reaches a maximum, and thereafter begins to decline. Some researchers consider this pattern consistent with the notion of a “seven-year itch,” while others argue that the rising-falling pattern of divorce risk is a consequence of misspecification of longitudinal models because of omitted covariates or unobserved heterogeneity. The aim of this study is to investigate the causes of the rising-falling pattern of divorce risk. Using register data from Finland and applying multilevel hazard models, the analysis supports the rising-falling pattern of divorce by marriage duration: the risk of marital dissolution increases, reaches its peak, and then gradually declines. This pattern persists when I control for the sociodemographic characteristics of women and their partners. The inclusion of unobserved heterogeneity in the model leads to some changes in the shape of the baseline risk; however, the rising-falling pattern of the divorce risk persists.

This paper reviews recent research on family dynamics among immigrants and their descendants in Europe. While there is a large body of literature on various aspects of immigrant lives in Europe, research on family dynamics has emerged only in the last decade. Studies based on individual-level longitudinal data and disaggregated measures of partnership and fertility behaviour have significantly advanced our understanding of the factors shaping family patterns among immigrants and their descendants and have contributed to research on immigrant integration. By drawing on recent research, this paper proposes several ways of further developing research on ethnic minority families. We emphasise the need to study family changes among immigrants and their descendants over their life courses, investigate various modes of family behaviour and conduct more truly comparative research to deepen our understanding of how ethnic minorities structure their family lives in different institutional and policy settings.

International migration studies in Europe have been mainly directed at immigration in Western and Northern Europe from Southern Europe and Third World countries in the 1950s-60s. However return migration to Estonia during the period after re-independence (1991) has not yet been explored. The situation in Estonia is particularly interesting in the context of 1990s European return migration. This is because Estonia is one of the countries in Europe where return migrants have a varied emigration background and it already has a return migration experience that took place prior to the 1990s. This article seeks to clarify the scope of return migration of Estonians in the 1990s and to analyze the essence of return migration and the factors that have an impact on it. It begins with a short overview of the formation and condition of the Estonian diaspora at the end of the 1980s and an observation of the return migration of the 1990s. Data are drawn upon the databases of the National Computing Centre (Population Register) and the Estonian Citizenship and Migration Board as well as census data of the countries residence of the diaspora Estonians. Moreover the return of the diaspora Estonians to Estonia is analyzed on the basis of the data from a questionnaire completed by 106 returning Estonians.

In this article the author examines the role an individuals early growth environment plays in her/his later migration behavior. The research subjects are ethnic Estonians from Russia living within Estonia. The author compares different groups of foreign-born Estonians in their choices of residence by variables reflecting their early growth environment. The results support the hypothesis that the socialization variables significantly impact the choice of residence of foreign-born Estonians. The chance that foreign-borns would live in North Estonia and urban areas compared with South Estonia and rural areas is much higher in ethnic return migrants whose parents level of education was/is higher whose parental home was Russian-speaking and who grew up in cities. Thus the results of the research enable us to argue that the social environment not only influences an individuals migration behavior directly but also indirectly through the growth environment of her/his childhood. (authors)

This article examines the Estonian diaspora-policy and ethnic (return) migration from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to Estonia in the 1990s. Ethnic migration to re-independent Estonia began in 1992, when the Estonian government evacuated 170 ethnic Estonians from areas caught up in the Georgian-Abkhazian war. Along with this was created the institutional framework for receiving ethnic migrants from crisis areas of the CIS. Later, support and facilities were also granted to ethnic Estonians migrating from elsewhere in the CIS. As a result, about 1,200 ethnic Estonians from the CIS settled in Estonia in 1992–1996. The research supports that ethnic migration is a phenomenon in which the state policy plays a decisive role both in inducing migration and in selecting those who are granted the right to relocate.

Recently there has been growing interest among scholars in ethnic return migration. This article examines return migration during the post World War 2 period of descendants of Estonians who emigrated to Russia at the end of the nineteenth and at the beginning of the twentieth century. A case of return migration of West-Siberian Estonians from the Omsk province is used as an example. Structuration theory is adopted and return migration is treated as a behavioural norm that evolves, spreads and becomes embedded within an ethnic minority living outside its homeland. The research shows that in the case of West-Siberian Estonians the main carrier of the migration behavioural norm is a generation. The behavioural norm of Estonians born in the 1910s-1920s has been return migration to Estonia, while the migration behaviour of the 1930s-1940s and the 1950s-1960s generations can be characterized by urbanization in West Siberia. Behind these inter-generation differences in migration behaviour can be found the different socialization of the generations, appearing largely on the level of practical consciousness. The results give reason to assume that ethnic return migration over a long period depends neither directly nor indirectly on momentary environmental changes, but rather on changes in people’s values, habits, identity etc., which in the case of an ethnic minority living outside its historical homeland may be followed generation by generation.