1. Exploring specific predictors of psychosis onset over a 2‐year period: A decision‐tree model
- Author
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Jan Olav Johannessen, Helen J. Stain, Tore Tjora, Wenche ten Velden Hegelstad, Michelle Friedman-Yakoobian, Inge Joa, Jone Bjornestad, and Johannes Hendrik Langeveld
- Subjects
Male ,Psychosis ,Adolescent ,Hallucinations ,psykose ,Prodromal Symptoms ,Social behaviour ,Medisinske Fag: 700::Klinisk medisinske fag: 750::Psykiatri, barnepsykiatri: 757 [VDP] ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Risk Factors ,Humans ,Medicine ,psychosis ,Risk factor ,psykiatri ,Biological Psychiatry ,business.industry ,Decision Trees ,medicine.disease ,030227 psychiatry ,Early intervention in psychosis ,Psychiatry and Mental health ,Psychotic Disorders ,Structured interview ,Female ,Pshychiatric Mental Health ,Male to female ,business ,030217 neurology & neurosurgery ,Decision tree model ,Clinical psychology - Abstract
Aim The fluctuating symptoms of clinical high risk for psychosis hamper conversion prediction models. Exploring specific symptoms using machine-learning has proven fruitful in accommodating this challenge. The aim of this study is to explore specific predictors and generate atheoretical hypotheses of onset using a close-monitoring, machine-learning approach. Methods Study participants, N = 96, mean age 16.55 years, male to female ratio 46:54%, were recruited from the Prevention of Psychosis Study in Rogaland, Norway. Participants were assessed using the Structured Interview for Psychosis Risk Syndromes (SIPS) at 13 separate assessment time points across 2 years, yielding 247 specific scores. A machine-learning decision-tree analysis (i) examined potential SIPS predictors of psychosis conversion and (ii) hierarchically ranked predictors of psychosis conversion. Results Four out of 247 specific SIPS symptom scores were significant: (i) reduced expression of emotion at baseline, (ii) experience of emotions and self at 5 months, (iii) perceptual abnormalities/hallucinations at 3 months and (iv) ideational richness at 6 months. No SIPS symptom scores obtained after 6 months of follow-up predicted psychosis. Conclusions Study findings suggest that early negative symptoms, particularly those observable by peers and arguably a risk factor for social exclusion, were predictive of psychosis. Self-expression and social behaviour might prove relevant entry points for early intervention in psychosis and psychosis risk. Testing study results in larger samples and at other sites is warranted.
- Published
- 2021
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