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Background The epidemiological advantage of Omicron variant is evidenced by its rapid spread and the ability to outcompete prior variants. Among Omicron sublineages, early outbreaks were dominated by BA.1, while BA.2 has gained dominance since February 2022. The relative pathogenicity and transmissibility of BA.1 and BA.2 have not been fully defined. Methods We compared viral loads and clinical signs in Syrian hamsters after infection with BA.1, BA.2, or D614G variant. A competitive transmission model and next-generation sequencing were used to compare the relative transmission potential of BA.1 and BA.2. Results BA.1 and BA.2 caused no apparent clinical signs, while D614G caused more than 10% weight loss. Higher viral loads were detected in nasal wash samples and nasal turbinate and lung tissues from BA.1-inoculated hamsters compared with BA.2-inoculated hamsters. No aerosol transmission was observed for BA.1 or BA.2 under the experimental condition in which D614G transmitted efficiently. BA.1 and BA.2 were able to transmit among hamsters via direct contact; however, BA.1 transmitted more efficiently than BA.2 under the competitive transmission model. No recombination was detected from direct contacts exposed simultaneously to BA.1 and BA.2. Conclusions Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 demonstrated attenuated pathogenicity and reduced transmission potential in hamsters compared with early SARS-CoV-2 strains.

After keeping infections at bay for two years, Hong Kong experienced a surge of Omicron BA.2 infections in early 2022 that overwhelmed the health care system, isolation facilities, and contact tracing capacity, leading to one of the highest per-capita death rates of COVID-19 in early 2022. The outbreak occurred against a backdrop of a dense population with low immunity towards natural SARS-CoV-2 infection, high vaccine hesitancy in vulnerable populations, comprehensive disease surveillance and the capacity for stringent public health and social measures. Using genome sequences and epidemiological data from this time, we reconstruct the epidemic trajectory of the BA.2 wave, estimate transmission and incidence rates, and evaluate the effectiveness of policy changes. We identify an increase in the effective reproductive rate (Re) to 9.5 in mid-January 2022, which preceded real-time estimates of transmission (Rt), revealing that BA.2 community transmission was under-ascertained weeks before the epidemic appeared to surge in mid-February 2022. Due to this, public health measures were relaxed in early February (Spring Festival) while Re increased and remained > 1 throughout February. An independent estimation of point prevalence and incidence using phylodynamics also indicates extensive superspreading at this time, which likely contributed to the rapid expansion of the epidemic. This study demonstrates that relying on Rt estimation methods dependent on case reporting can misinform epidemic response planning, sometimes with substantial consequences. There is a need for future research and implementation of improved estimates of epidemic growth in near real-time that combine multiple disparate data sources to better inform outbreak response policy.

Viral and host factors can shape SARS-CoV-2 evolution. However, little is known about lineage-specific and vaccination-specific mutations that occur within individuals. Here, we analysed deep sequencing data from 2,820 SARS-CoV-2 respiratory samples with different viral lineages to describe the patterns of within-host diversity under different conditions, including vaccine-breakthrough infections. In unvaccinated individuals, variant of Concern (VOC) Alpha, Delta, and Omicron respiratory samples were found to have higher within-host diversity and were under neutral to purifying selection at the full genome level compared to non-VOC SARS-CoV-2. Breakthrough infections in 2-dose or 3-dose Comirnaty and CoronaVac vaccinated individuals did not increase levels of non-synonymous mutations and did not change the direction of selection pressure. Vaccine-induced antibody or T cell responses did not appear to have significant impact on within-host SARS-CoV-2 sequence diversification. Our findings suggest that vaccination does not increase exploration of SARS-CoV-2 protein sequence space and may not facilitate emergence of viral variants.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to other mammals, including pet animals, has been reported. However, with the exception of farmed mink, there is no previous evidence that these infected animals can infect humans, resulting in sustained human-to-human transmission. Following a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection of a pet shop worker, animals in the shop and the warehouse supplying it were tested for evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection.In this case study, viral swabs and blood samples were collected from animals in a pet shop and its corresponding warehouse in Hong Kong. Nasal swab or saliva samples from human COVID-19 patients epidemiologically linked to the pet shop and from subsequent local cases confirmed to be infected by SARS-CoV-2 delta variant were collected. Oral swabs were tested by quantitative RT-PCR (RT-qPCR) for SARS-CoV-2 and blood samples were serologically tested by a surrogate virus neutralisation test and plaque reduction neutralisation test. The SARS-CoV-2 RT-qPCR positive samples were sequenced by next generation viral full genome sequencing using the ISeq sequencing platform (Illumina), and the viral genomes were phylogenetically analysed.Eight (50%) of 16 individually tested Syrian hamsters in the pet shop and seven (58%) of 12 Syrian hamsters in the corresponding warehouse were positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection in RT-qPCR or serological tests. None of the dwarf hamsters (n=75), rabbits (n=246), guinea pigs (n=66), chinchillas (n=116), and mice (n=2) were confirmed positive for SARS-CoV-2 in RT-qPCR tests. SARS-CoV-2 viral genomes deduced from human and hamster cases in this incident all belong to the delta variant of concern (AY.127) that had not been circulating locally before this outbreak. The viral genomes obtained from hamsters were phylogenetically related with some sequence heterogeneity. Phylogenetic dating suggests infection in these hamsters occurred around Oct 14, 2021 (95% CI Sept 15 to Nov 9, 2021). Multiple zoonotic transmission events to humans were detected, leading to onward human-to-human transmission.Pet hamsters can be naturally infected with SARS-CoV-2. The virus can circulate among hamsters and lead to human infections. Both genetic and epidemiological results strongly suggest that there was more than one hamster-to-human transmission event in this study. This incident also led to onward human transmission. Importation of SARS-CoV-2-infected hamsters was a likely source of this outbreak.US National Institutes of Health, Research Grants Council of Hong Kong, Food and Health Bureau, and InnoHK.

Measures for mitigation of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) were set to reduce the spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses share similar transmission routes and some common clinical manifestations. Co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 and other common respiratory viruses is imminent. Therefore, development of multiplex assays for detecting these respiratory viruses is essential for being prepared for future outbreaks of respiratory viruses.A panel of three reverse transcription droplet digital PCR (RT-ddPCR) assays were developed to detect 15 different human respiratory viruses. Evaluations of its performance were demonstrated. A total of 100 local and 98 imported COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong were screened for co-infection with other common respiratory viruses.All detected viral targets showed distinct signal clusters using the multiplex RT-ddPCR assays. These assays have a broad range of linearity and good intra-/inter-assay reproducibility for each target. The lower limits of quantification for all targets were ≤46 copies per reaction. Six imported cases of COVID-19 were found to be co-infected with other respiratory viruses, whereas no local case of co-infection was observed.The multiplex RT-ddPCR assays were demonstrated to be useful for screening of respiratory virus co-infections. The strict preventive measures applied in Hong Kong may be effective in limiting the circulation of other human respiratory viruses. The multiplex assays developed in this study can achieve a robust detection method for clinical and research purposes.

Vaccines that are broadly cross-protective against current and future SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VoC) or across the sarbecoviruses subgenus remain a priority for public health. Virus neutralization is the best available correlate of protection. To define the magnitude and breadth of cross-neutralization in individuals with different exposure to SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination, we here use a multiplex surrogate neutralization assay based on virus spike receptor binding domains of multiple SARS-CoV-2 VoC, as well as related bat and pangolin viruses. We include sera from cohorts of individuals vaccinated with two or three doses of mRNA (BNT162b2) or inactivated SARS-CoV-2 (Coronavac or Sinopharm) vaccines with or without a history of previous SARS-CoV-2 or SARS-CoV-1 infection. SARS-CoV-2 or SARS-CoV-1 infection followed by BNT162b2 vaccine, Omicron BA.2 breakthrough infection following BNT162b2 vaccine or a third dose of BNT162b2 following two doses of BNT162b2 or Coronavac elicit the highest and broadest neutralization across VoCs. For both breadth and magnitude of neutralization across all sarbecoviruses, those infected with SARS-CoV-1 immunized with BNT162b2 outperform all other combinations of infection and/or vaccination. These data may inform vaccine design strategies for generating broadly neutralizing antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 variants or across the sarbecovirus subgenus.

We report detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) in an asymptomatic, fully vaccinated traveler in a quarantine hotel in Hong Kong, China. The Omicron variant was also detected in a fully vaccinated traveler staying in a room across the corridor from the index patient, suggesting transmission despite strict quarantine precautions.

Viral and host factors can shape SARS-CoV-2 within-host viral diversity and virus evolution. However, little is known about lineage-specific and vaccination-specific mutations that occur within individuals. Here we analysed deep sequencing data from 2,146 SARS-CoV-2 samples with different viral lineages to describe the patterns of within-host diversity in different conditions, including vaccine-breakthrough infections. Variant of Concern (VOC) Alpha, Delta, and Omicron samples were found to have higher within-host nucleotide diversity while being under weaker purifying selection at full genome level compared to non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 viruses. Breakthrough Delta and Omicron infections in Comirnaty and CoronaVac vaccinated individuals appeared to have higher within-host purifying selection at the full-genome and/or Spike gene levels. Vaccine-induced antibody or T cell responses did not appear to have significant impact on within-host SARS-CoV-2 evolution. Our findings suggest that vaccination does not increase SARS-CoV-2 protein sequence space and may not facilitate emergence of more viral variants.

BackgroundOn-arrival quarantine has been one of the primary measures used to prevent the introduction of COVID-19 into Hong Kong since the start of the pandemic. Most on-arrival quarantines have been done in hotels, with the duration of quarantine and testing frequency during quarantine varying throughout the pandemic for various reasons. However, hotels are not necessarily designed with infection control in mind. We aimed to study the potential risk of transmission between persons in on-arrival quarantine.MethodsWe examined data on each laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 case identified in on-arrival quarantine in a hotel in Hong Kong between 1 May 2020 and 31 January 2022. We sequenced the full genomes of viruses from cases that overlapped with other confirmed cases in terms of the hotel of stay, date of arrival and date of testing positive. A combination of epidemiological information and sequence information was then used to identify probable transmission events.FindingsAmong 221 imported cases that overlapped with other quarantined cases, phylogenetic analysis identified eight suspected clusters comprising 20 cases in total. Only three of these clusters had been recognised as hotel transmission events.InterpretationWe have identified potential occurrences of COVID-19 transmission within hotel quarantine in Hong Kong demonstrating the underlying low but non-zero risk associated with sequestering arrivals within hotels. In future pandemics, on-arrival quarantine in hotels could be used to delay the introduction of infection, but the construction of purpose-built facilities for on-arrival quarantine might be necessary to minimize importation risk.FundingHealth and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong

Several zoonotic influenza A viruses detected in humans contain genes derived from avian H9N2 subtypes. We uncovered a Eurasian avian-like H1N1 swine influenza virus with polymerase basic 1 and matrix gene segments derived from the H9N2 subtype, suggesting that H9N2 viruses are infecting pigs and reassorting with swine influenza viruses in China.

We studied SARS-CoV-2 genomes from travelers arriving in Hong Kong during November 2021-February 2022. In addition to Omicron and Delta variants, we detected a BA.1/BA.2 recombinant with a breakpoint near the 5' end of the spike gene in 2 epidemiologically linked case-patients. Continued surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 recombinants is needed.

We describe an introduction of clade GH severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 causing a fourth wave of coronavirus disease in Hong Kong. The virus has an ORF3a-Q57H mutation, causing truncation of ORF3b. This virus evades induction of cytokine, chemokine, and interferon-stimulated gene expression in primary human respiratory cells.

The antibody response magnitude and kinetics may impact clinical severity, serological diagnosis and long-term protection of COVID-19, which may play a role in why children experience lower morbidity. We therefore tested samples from 122 children in Hong Kong with symptomatic (n = 78) and asymptomatic (n = 44) SARS-CoV-2 infections up to 200 days post infection, relative to 71 infected adults (symptomatic n = 61, and asymptomatic n = 10), and negative controls (n = 48). We assessed serum IgG antibodies to a 14-wide antigen panel of structural and accessory proteins by Luciferase Immuno-Precipitation System (LIPS) assay and circulating cytokines. Infected children have lower levels of Spike, Membrane, ORF3a, ORF7a, ORF7b antibodies, comparable ORF8 and elevated E-specific antibodies than adults. Combination of two unique antibody targets, ORF3d and ORF8, can accurately discriminate SARS-CoV-2 infection in children. Principal component analysis reveals distinct pediatric serological signatures, and the highest contribution to variance from adults are antibody responses to non-structural proteins ORF3d, NSP1, ORF3a and ORF8. From a diverse panel of cytokines that can modulate immune priming and relative inflammation, IL-8, MCP-1 and IL-6 correlate with the magnitude of pediatric antibody specificity and severity. Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 internal proteins may become an important sero surveillance tool of infection with the roll-out of vaccines in the pediatric population.

To determine the potential for viral adaptation to T cell responses, we probed the full influenza virus genome by next-generation sequencing directly ex vivo from infected mice, in the context of an experimental T cell–based vaccine, an H5N1-based viral vectored vaccinia vaccine Wyeth/IL-15/5Flu, versus the current standard-of-care, seasonal inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) and unvaccinated conditions. Wyeth/IL-15/5Flu vaccination was coincident with increased mutation incidence and frequency across the influenza genome; however, mutations were not enriched within T cell epitope regions, but high allele frequency mutations within conserved hemagglutinin stem regions and PB2 mammalian adaptive mutations arose. Depletion of CD4 + and CD8 + T cell subsets led to reduced frequency of mutants in vaccinated mice; therefore, vaccine-mediated T cell responses were important drivers of virus diversification. Our findings suggest that Wyeth/IL-15/5Flu does not generate T cell escape mutants but increases stochastic events for virus adaptation by stringent bottlenecks.

We studied SARS-CoV-2 genomes from travelers arriving in Hong Kong from November-2021 to February-2022. Apart from detecting Omicron (BA.1, BA1.1. and BA.2) and Delta variants, we detected a BA.1/BA.2 recombinant in two epidemiologically linked cases. This recombinant has a breakpoint near the 5’ end of Spike gene (nucleotide position 20055-21618).

The epidemiological advantage of Omicron variant is evidenced by its rapid spread and the ability to outcompete prior variants. Among Omicron sub-lineages, early outbreaks were dominated by BA.1 while BA.2 has gained dominance since February 2022. The relative pathogenicity and transmissibility of BA.1 and BA.2 have not been fully defined.We compared viral loads and clinical signs in Syrian hamsters after infection with BA.1, BA.2, or D614G variant. A competitive transmission model and next generation sequencing were used to compare the relative transmission potential of BA.1 and BA.2.BA.1 and BA.2 caused no apparent clinical signs while D614G caused more than 10% weight loss. Higher viral loads were detected from the nasal washes, nasal turbinate and lungs of BA.1 than BA.2 inoculated hamsters. No aerosol transmission was observed for BA.1 or BA.2 under the experimental condition that D614G transmitted efficiently. BA.1 and BA.2 were able to transmit among hamsters via direct contact; however, BA.1 transmitted more efficiently than BA.2 under the competitive transmission model. No recombination was detected from direct contacts exposed simultaneously to BA.1 and BA.2.Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 demonstrated attenuated pathogenicity and reduced transmission potential in hamsters when compared to early SARS-CoV-2 strains.

Rapid antigenic evolution of the influenza A virus surface antigen hemagglutinin undermines protection conferred by seasonal vaccines. Protective correlates targeted by universal vaccines such as cytotoxic T cells or HA stem directed broadly neutralizing antibodies have been shown to select for immune escape mutants during infection. We developed an in vivo serial passage mouse model for viral adaptation and used next generation sequencing to evaluate full genome viral evolution in the context of broadly protective immunity. Heterosubtypic immune pressure increased the incidence of genome-wide single nucleotide variants, though mutations found in early adapted populations were predominantly stochastic in nature. Prolonged adaptation under heterosubtypic immune selection resulted in the manifestation of highly virulent phenotypes that ablated vaccine mediated protection from mortality. High frequency mutations unique to escape phenotypes were identified within the polymerase encoding segments. These findings suggest that a suboptimial usage of population-wide universal influenza vaccine may drive formation of escape variants attributed to polygenic changes.

Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) with progressively increased transmissibility between humans is a threat to global public health. Omicron variant also evades immunity from natural infection or vaccines1. It is unclear whether its exceptional transmissibility is due to immune evasion or inherent virological properties.We compared the replication competence and cellular tropism of the wild type (WT) virus, D614G, Alpha, Beta, Delta and Omicron variants in ex vivo explant cultures of human bronchus and lung. Dependence on TMPRSS2 for infection was also evaluated. We show that Omicron replicated faster than all other SARS-CoV-2 in the bronchus but less efficiently in the lung parenchyma. All VOCs had similar cellular tropism as the WT. Delta was more dependent on serine protease than other VOCs tested.Our findings demonstrate that Omicron is inherently able to replicate faster than other variants known to date and this likely contributes to its inherently higher transmissibility, irrespective of its ability to evade antibody immunity. The lower replication competence of Omicron in human lung may be compatible with reduced severity but the determinants of severe disease are multifactorial. These findings provide important biological clues to the transmissibility and pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs.

We sequenced ≈50% of coronavirus disease cases imported to Hong Kong during March–July 2021 and identified 70 cases caused by Delta variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The genomic diversity detected in Hong Kong was similar to global diversity, suggesting travel hubs can play a substantial role in surveillance.

We sequenced 10% of imported severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections detected in travelers to Hong Kong and revealed the genomic diversity of regions of origin, including lineages not previously reported from those countries. Our results suggest that international or regional travel hubs might be useful surveillance sites to monitor sequence diversity.

The Omicron BA.2 sublineage has replaced BA.1 worldwide and has comparable levels of immune evasion to BA.1. These observations suggest that the increased transmissibility of BA.2 cannot be explained by the antibody evasion.Here, we characterized the replication competence and respiratory tissue tropism of three Omicron variants (BA.1, BA.1.1, BA.2), and compared these with the wild-type virus and Delta variant, in human nasal, bronchial and lung tissues cultured ex vivo.BA.2 replicated more efficiently in nasal and bronchial tissues at 33°C than wild-type, Delta and BA.1. Both BA.2 and BA.1 had higher replication competence than wild-type and Delta viruses in bronchial tissues at 37°C. BA.1, BA.1.1 and BA.2 replicated at a lower level in lung parenchymal tissues compared to wild-type and Delta viruses.Higher replication competence of Omicron BA.2 in the human upper airway at 33°C than BA.1 may be one of the reasons to explain the current advantage of BA.2 over BA.1. A lower replication level of the tested Omicron variants in human lung tissues is in line with the clinical manifestations of decreased disease severity of patients infected with the Omicron strains compared with other ancestral strains.This work was supported by US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the Theme-Based Research Scheme under University Grants Committee of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.

Background A large cluster of 59 cases were linked to a single flight with 146 passengers from New Delhi to Hong Kong in April 2021. This outbreak coincided with early reports of exponential pandemic growth in New Delhi, which reached a peak of > 400 000 newly confirmed cases on 7 May 2021. Methods Epidemiological information including date of symptom onset, date of positive-sample detection and travel and contact history for individual cases from this flight were collected. Whole genome sequencing was performed, and sequences were classified based on the dynamic Pango nomenclature system. Maximum-likelihood phylogenetic analysis compared sequences from this flight alongside other cases imported from India to Hong Kong on 26 flights between June 2020 and April 2021, as well as sequences from India or associated with India-related travel from February to April 2021 and 1217 reference sequences. Results Sequence analysis identified six lineages of SARS-CoV-2 belonging to two variants of concern (Alpha and Delta) and one variant of public health interest (Kappa) involved in this outbreak. Phylogenetic analysis confirmed at least three independent sub-lineages of Alpha with limited onward transmission, a superspreading event comprising 37 cases of Kappa and transmission of Delta to only one passenger. Additional analysis of another 26 flights from India to Hong Kong confirmed widespread circulation of all three variants in India since early March 2021. Conclusions The broad spectrum of disease severity and long incubation period of SARS-CoV-2 pose a challenge for surveillance and control. As illustrated by this particular outbreak, opportunistic infections of SARS-CoV-2 can occur irrespective of variant lineage, and requiring a nucleic acid test within 72 hours of departure may be insufficient to prevent importation or in-flight transmission.

Hong Kong utilized an elimination strategy with intermittent use of public health and social measures and increasingly stringent travel regulations to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. By analyzing >1700 genome sequences representing 17% of confirmed cases from 23-January-2020 to 26-January-2021, we reveal the effects of fluctuating control measures on the evolution and epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Hong Kong. Despite numerous importations, only three introductions were responsible for 90% of locally-acquired cases, two of which circulated cryptically for weeks while less stringent measures were in place. We found that SARS-CoV-2 within-host diversity was most similar among transmission pairs and epidemiological clusters due to a strong transmission bottleneck through which similar genetic background generates similar within-host diversity., One sentence summary: Out of the 170 detected introductions of SARS-CoV-2 in Hong Kong during 2020, three introductions caused 90% of community cases.

BackgroundChildren are less clinically affected by SARS-CoV-2 infection than adults with the majority of cases being mild or asymptomatic and the differences in infection outcomes are poorly understood. The kinetics, magnitude and landscape of the antibody response may impact the clinical severity and serological diagnosis of COVID-19. Thus, a comprehensive investigation of the antibody landscape in children and adults is needed.MethodsWe tested 254 plasma from 122 children with symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections in Hong Kong up to 206 days post symptom onset, including 146 longitudinal samples from 58 children. Adult COVID-19 patients and pre-pandemic controls were included for comparison. We assessed antibodies to a 14-wide panel of SARS-CoV-2 structural and accessory proteins by Luciferase Immunoprecipitation System (LIPS).FindingsChildren have lower levels of Spike and Nucleocapsid antibodies than adults, and their cumulative humoral response is more expanded to accessory proteins (NSP1 and Open Reading Frames (ORFs)). Sensitive serology using the three N, ORF3b, ORF8 antibodies can discriminate COVID-19 in children. Principal component analysis revealed distinct serological signatures in children and the highest contribution to variance were responses to non-structural proteins ORF3b, NSP1, ORF7a and ORF8. Longitudinal sampling revealed maintenance or increase of antibodies for at least 6 months, except for ORF7b antibodies which showed decline. It was interesting to note that children have higher antibody responses towards known IFN antagonists: ORF3b, ORF6 and ORF7a. The diversified SARS-CoV-2 antibody response in children may be an important factor in driving control of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) viruses have been detected in several continents. However, limited viral sequence data are available from countries in the Middle East. We report full-genome analyses of highly pathogenic H5N8 viruses recently detected in different provinces in Saudi Arabia.

Significant biases of dinucleotide composition in many RNA viruses including influenza A virus have been reported in recent years. Previous studies have showed that a codon-usage-altered influenza mutant with elevated CpG usage is attenuated in mammalian in vitro and in vivo models. However, the relationship between dinucleotide preference and codon usage bias is not entirely clear and changes in dinucleotide usage of influenza virus during evolution at segment level are yet to be investigated. In this study, a Monte Carlo type method was applied to identify under-represented or over-represented dinucleotide motifs, among different segments and different groups, in influenza viral sequences. After excluding the potential biases caused by codon usage and amino acid sequences, CpG and UpA were found under-represented in all viral segments from all groups, whereas UpG and CpA were found over-represented. We further explored the temporal changes of usage of these dinucleotides. Our analyses revealed significant decrease of CpG frequency in Segments 1, 3, 4, and 5 in seasonal H1 virus after its re-emergence in humans in 1977. Such temporal variations were mainly contributed by the dinucleotide changes at the codon positions 3-1 and 2-3 where silent mutations played a major role. The depletions of CpG and UpA through silent mutations consequently led to over-representations of UpG and CpA. We also found that dinucleotide preference directly results in significant synonymous codon usage bias. Our study helps to provide details on understanding the evolutionary history of influenza virus and selection pressures that shape the virus genome.

Grade and class information of the cases in the second outbreak from December 18 to 24. (DOC 49 kb)

Summary of some of the reported waterborne NoV outbreaks since 2000. (DOC 97 kb)

Supplementary result. (DOC 25 kb)

Simulation of the best execution time of different interventions and the best period of school closure in two outbreaks in Changsha, 2014. (DOC 72 kb)

Parameters estimation. (TIF 286 kb)

Demographic and clinical characteristics of the cases of two NoV outbreaks in Changsha, China. (DOC 44 kb)

Supplementary methods. (DOC 299 kb)

Parameter definitions and values for sensitivity analysis. (DOC 89 kb)

Supplementary material. (DOC 791 kb)

To establish a risk early warning model of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus and predict the area with high risk of the outbreak of H7N9 virus infection.The incidence data of human infection with H7N9 virus at prefecture level in China from February 2013 to June 2014 were collected, and the geographic and meteorological data during the same period in these areas were collected too. Spatial auto regression (SAR) model and generalized additive model (GAM) were used to estimate different risk factors. Afterwards, the risk area map was created based on the predicted value of both models.All the human infections with H7N9 virus occurred in the predicted areas by the early warning model in February 2014. The early warning model successfully predicted the spatial moving trend of the disease, and this trend was verified by two outbreaks in northern China in April and May 2014.The established early warning model showed accuracy and precision in short-term prediction, which might be applied in the active surveillance, early warning and prevention/control of the outbreak of human infection with H7N9 virus.

Dengue fever (DF) is endemic in Guangzhou and has been circulating for decades, causing significant economic loss. DF prevention mainly relies on mosquito control and change in lifestyle. However, alert fatigue may partially limit the success of these countermeasures. This study investigated the delayed effect of meteorological factors, as well as the relationships between five climatic variables and the risk for DF by boosted regression trees (BRT) over the period of 2005–2011, to determine the best timing and strategy for adapting such preventive measures. The most important meteorological factor was daily average temperature. We used BRT to investigate the lagged relationship between dengue clinical burden and climatic variables, with the 58 and 62 day lag models attaining the largest area under the curve. The climatic factors presented similar patterns between these two lag models, which can be used as references for DF prevention in the early stage. Our results facilitate the development of the Mosquito Breeding Risk Index for early warning systems. The availability of meteorological data and modeling methods enables the extension of the application to other vector-borne diseases endemic in tropical and subtropical countries.