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In October 2020, the Australian Parliament legislated what appear to be significant changes in HECS–HELP prices, the tuition charges levied on domestic undergraduate students Through this policy change, the Government aims to influence student choices in order to help deliver the skill changes presumed to be required for the economy's post-COVID make-up This paper examines, in conceptual and empirical terms, a key aspect of the motivation for the reform, the true meaning of prices in the HECS–HELP world of an income-contingent loan (ICL) We explain the conceptual basis of ICL charges and, with 2016 Census data, illustrate the meaning of the price changes between disciplines, by gender, and for a suite of expected future graduate lifetime income distributions Our analysis points strongly to the conclusion that the true price changes are far less than they appear to be, highlighting the potential of there being quite muted consequences for student discipline choices © 2021 Institute of Public Administration Australia

We deploy a stochastic life‐cycle model to examine how the superannuation guarantee (SG) impacts on welfare for Australian superannuation fund members under a reference‐dependent utility function that evaluates consumption relative to target, allowing for existing superannuation, taxation and Age Pension eligibility rules. The analysis highlights how the optimal SG can vary substantially with pre‐retirement income, the post‐retirement consumption target and various other assumptions. We conclude that no single SG rate is appropriate for all members and suggest that the main reason for increasing the SG above 9.5 percent would be an aim of replacing the Age Pension where possible.

The most accurate estimation of transition probabilities for a multi-state model of health status requires longitudinal data. However, for many countries such data are usually not available. Instead, population level mortality incidence and disability prevalence rates are often all that can be accessed. In this paper, for a three-state no-recovery model (with states healthy, disabled, dead), using simple mathematical derivations, we propose a framework to estimate the age- and gender-specific boundaries within which each of the transition probabilities should fall. We then provide two methods for estimating unique transition probabilities—a least squares procedure and a method based on the ‘extra mortality’ factor proposed by Rickayzen and Walsh (Br Actuarial J 8(2):341–393, 2002, https://doi.org/10.1017/s1357321700003755 ). We also show the acceptable range for the ‘extra mortality’ factor given the mortality and disability data. Furthermore, we provide a critique of the method proposed by Van der Gaag et al. (Demogr Res 32:75, 2015), as their estimates can fall outside the acceptable boundaries. Finally, we estimate life and health expectancies, as well as premium rates for a life care annuity and a disability annuity using our derived transition probabilities.

We examine the implications for Australian retirees of full access to dividend imputation credits using a stochastic life‐cycle model. We find that the availability of imputation credits can justify a significant bias towards Australian equities in retirement portfolios, largely at the expense of world equities. We also generate estimates of the value of imputation credits to retirees, finding it could potentially support increased consumption during retirement of 5–6 per cent, or equivalent value to a 8–9 per cent higher balance at retirement. Our study enhances the understanding of equity home bias, and provides insights relevant for public policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This article sets out principles and decision rules for setting appropriate drawdown and investment strategies during retirement given an individual’s objectives and risk tolerance. In particular, we highlight how the suitable drawdown strategy can relate to the objective, and how annuities might be combined with other investments to help manage risk. Our aim is to offer research-based guidance to product providers, financial advisers and individuals in formulating retirement strategies.

We deploy a stochastic life-cycle model to examine how differing levels of the superannuation guarantee (SG) impact on the welfare of individual Australians under existing superannuation, tax and pension eligibility rules. Our main focus is the effect of various assumptions on the optimal SG, emphasizing the role of income and the retirement objectives of the individual. The analysis supports estimating the gains and losses from changing the SG for various individuals, and associated impacts on net government revenue. We find the optimal SG to vary substantially with income and objectives. While our baseline analysis indicates a SG of below the current level of 9.5%, higher estimates emerge if access to the Age Pension is excluded, and if the SG is used as a mechanism to self-insure against living to a very old age, being forced into early retirement, or incurring lower investment returns. We conclude that the case for raising the SG above 9.5% depends on the underlying assumptions, with the policy objectives that the SG is intended to achieve being critical.

We analyze the ability of different investment strategies to give pre-retirees more certainty about their income in retirement, while allowing them to benefit from taking investment risk. Specifically, we look at the optimal strategies that maximize the expected values of a loss aversion utility function and a constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility function. We also include a typical lifestyle strategy. We find that the loss aversion utility function gives a high degree of certainty about its reference point, the latter chosen to give the desired replacement ratio. Adding in constraints on the income purchased at retirement does not improve the certainty of achieving the desired replacement ratio enough to counter-balance the increased chance of obtaining an income far below it. A CRRA utility function fails to get adequate certainty on the retirement income, and becomes too risk-averse when constraints are added. The lifestyle strategy performs well but is overall out-performed by the loss aversion-derived strategy. We include inflation in our model, and allow for inflation-indexed bonds in our investment universe. Our results are analyzed in both a Brownian motion-driven financial market model and using UK historical data.

We investigate the conditions under which life-cycle investment strategies based on age may be ‘near enough’ to optimal, focusing on the treatment of the pension account balance and assumptions about risk aversion. We show that dynamically adjusting the strategy in response to fluctuations in balance as well as age can lead to moderate improvements over product designs currently seen in the market; although most of the potential gains might be captured by specifying the glide path with reference to measures reflecting the projected balance over time. The risk aversion assumption emerges as a far more important consideration, with much greater reductions in expected utility arising from mismatches between the risk aversion of the investor and that underpinning the glide path design. Our analysis suggests possibilities for improving life-cycle or target date funds, and highlights the benefit of offering a suite of such funds that cater for members with differing risk aversion.

For a retiree who must maintain both investment and longevity risks, we consider the impact on decision making of focusing on an objective relating to the terminal wealth at retirement, instead of a more correct objective relating to a retirement income. Both a shortfall and a utility objective are considered; we argue that shortfall objectives may be inappropriate due to distortion in results with non-monotonically correlated economic factors. The modelling undertaken uses a dynamic programming approach in conjunction with Monte-Carlo simulations of future experience of an individual to make optimal choices. We find that the type of objective targetted can have a significant impact on the optimal choices made, with optimal equity allocations being up to 30% higher and contribution amounts also being significantly higher under a retirement income objective as compared to a terminal wealth objective. The result of these differences can have a significant impact on retirement outcomes.

In many countries it has been established that short-run cyclical patterns in mortality are associated with economic fluctuations. This study aims to investigate the pattern of cyclical mortality in Australia, that is, whether increases or decreases in mortality rates are associated with changes in the economy. Employing logistic fixed-effects models, we show that there is a significant counter-cyclical pattern of mortality (mortality increases during economic contractions) in the general Australian population, over the period 1985–2008. This is an important finding which suggests that steps taken to stimulate the economy during downturns could, apart from other benefits, help reduce the associated increase in mortality. Further analysis by economic growth cycles indicates that the observed counter-cyclical pattern of mortality is significant during phases of expansion but not during contractionary phases.

Schwannomas (Neurilemmomas) are benign, encapsulated, slow-growing, and usually solitary tumours originating from Schwann cells of the peripheral nerve sheath with uncertain etiology. Approximately 25–48% of cases are seen in the head and neck region, of which 1% appears in the oral cavity. Lingual schwannoma can affect all age groups with peak incidence between the third and sixth decade. We report a rare case of lingual schwannoma in a 14-year-old girl complaining of asymptomatic swelling over lateral border of tongue since two years. Clinical examination revealed a nodule1.5×1 cm in size, rubbery, nontender, smooth at right lateral border of tongue covered by normal mucosa, with no cervical lymphadenopathy. Excisional biopsy of the lesion was done under local anaesthesia. The histological sections spindle cells with thin wavy nuclei arranged as typical Antoni A (with Verocay bodies) and Antoni B areas. Nuclear palisading distribution (typical of a schwannoma) was readily identifiable. The patient was recurrence-free after one year.

This paper considers an alternative way of structuring stochastic variables in a dynamic programming framework where the model structure dictates that numerical methods of solution are necessary. Rather than estimating integrals within a Bellman equation using quadrature nodes, we use nodes directly from the underlying data. An example of the application of this approach is presented using individual lifetime financial modelling. The results show that data-driven methods lead to the least losses in result accuracy compared to quadrature and Quasi-Monte Carlo approaches, using historical data as a base. These results hold for both a single stochastic variable and multiple stochastic variables. The results are significant for improving the computational accuracy of lifetime financial models and other models that employ stochastic dynamic programming.

We explore the extent to which claim incidence in Disability Income Insurance (DII) is affected by changes in the unemployment rate in Australia. Using data from 1986 to 2001, we fit a hurdle model to explore the presence and magnitude of the effect of changes in unemployment rate on the incidence of DII claims, controlling for policy holder characteristics and seasonality. We find a clear positive association between unemployment and claim incidence, and we explore this further by gender, age, deferment period, and occupation. A multinomial logistic regression model is fitted to cause of claim data in order to explore the relationship further, and it is shown that the proportion of claims due to accident increases markedly with rising unemployment. The results suggest that during periods of rising unemployment, insurers may face increased claims from policy holders with shorter deferment periods for white-collar workers and for medium and heavy manual workers. Our findings indicate that moral hazard may have a material impact on DII claim incidence and insurer business in periods of declining economic conditions.

Reconstruction of full-thickness defects of the head and neck is a challenge. In this clinical study, we assessed the role of the bilobed/bipaddled pectoralis major myocutaneous flap (PMMF) for the reconstruction of large full-thickness defects of the cheek, after resection of oral cancer. After resection of oral cancer, 62 cases of through-and-through defects of the oral cavity were reconstructed using folded/bipaddled/bilobed PMMF flap. All were males and presented with locally advanced oral squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), which involved the buccal mucosa and gingivo buccal sulcus (n = 53) and gingivo buccal sulcus + lip (n = 9). All the flaps survived, and no patient developed a major complication. The most common complication in the current series was wound dehiscence. In 8 % of cases, wound dehiscence was found at the donor site; in 6.45 % of cases, dehiscence was present at the recipient site; and in 4.83 % of cases, dehiscence was present at the neck. All the wounds healed secondarily with regular dressings. The bilobed/bipaddled PMMF is a straightforward and reliable flap that provides an effective mechanism to reconstruct full-thickness cheek defects while avoiding the complexity of microvascular free flaps. The bilobed/bipaddled PMMF has become our preferred reconstruction option for large full-thickness defects after resection of oral carcinoma.

Airway management in patient with restricted mouth opening is a great challenge, owing to the difficulty in laryngoscopy and visualisation of the vocal cords during the procedure of intubation. The term retrograde intubation refers to a technique in which a guide wire is passed into the trachea and then into the mouth or nose. A tracheal tube is then passed down over the guide until it enters the trachea. A retrospective audit was undertaken to determine the success and complication associated with retrograde intubation. The results show that in a sample of 20 patients in which retrograde intubation was done, only three developed sore throat and cough, one had bronchospasm and one developed infection at the site of insertion of a J-tipped catheter. Retrograde tracheal intubation was easy to perform and had a high success rate and a low incidence of complications.

Mandibular fractures are relatively less frequent in children when compared to adults. Pediatric patients present a unique challenge to maxillofacial surgeons in terms of their treatment planning and in their functional needs. We currently describe our experience with lateral compression open cap splint with circummandibular wiring as a treatment modality which involves fewer risks in treating pediatric symphysis/parasymphysis/body mandibular fractures. A retrospective analysis of pediatric patients with mandibular symphysis/parasymphysis/body fractures operated from January 2007 to January 2012 was performed. Clinical photographs and orthopantomogram assessment at the time of presentation, after treatment, and at 6 months postoperatively were evaluated. All the 10 patients were followed up until the period of 6 months, and none of them had any major complications. Postoperatively, there was satisfactory healing and union of fracture fragments in all the patients. Only one patient developed infection at submental region. The 6-month follow-up showed good occlusion, without interference in teeth eruption and no signs of temporomandibular joint problems. Lateral compression open cap splints for treatment of pediatric mandibular symphysis/parasymphysis/body fractures are reliable treatment modalities with regard to occlusion-guided fracture reduction.