Search

In this paper we estimate a fully-fledged structural system for the housing market in Italy, taking into account the multi-fold link with bank lending to both households and construction firms. The model allows the house supply to vary in the short-run and the banking sector to affect the equilibrium in the housing market, through its effect on housing supply and demand. We show that house prices react mostly to standard drivers such as, disposable income and demographic pressures. Lending conditions also exert a significant impact, especially through their effects on mortgage loans, and consequently on housing demand. Allowing short-run adjustment in house supply implies a weaker response of house prices to a change in monetary policy or in banks’ deleveraging process. Finally, we find that since the mid-80s house price developments in Italy have been broadly in line with fundamentals; during the global financial crisis, the worsening in credit supply conditions dampened house price dynamics, partly offsetting the positive stimulus provided by the loosing monetary policy stance.

Since the mid-2000s standard price-competitiveness indicators for euro-area countries have recently provided conflicting signals, particularly in Italy. The manufacturing unit labor cost (ULCM)-based indicator reports a major competitiveness loss in Italy. Owing to the internationalization of production processes and to the fading representativeness of labor on overall costs we argue that price-based measures are more appropriate than those based on ULCMs to assess external competitiveness and play a more important role in explaining export growth. Measuring non-price competitiveness and considering global value chains are also crucial to correctly identify the determinants of trade flows in the four largest euro-area countries.

In this paper we provide fresh evidence on TFP performance in the Italian economy since 1995, taking into account the changing composition of primary inputs across different capital goods and employment skills, as well as technical progress embodied in different vintages of the productive assets. We first estimate a technical depreciation rate by using individual data on Italian industrial firms. We then obtain an experimental measure of the capital stock adjusted for technical efficiency, by augmenting the standard depreciation rate by our own estimate of technical depreciation (about 5 per cent per year). Once we introduce our measure of capital stock in a standard growth accounting exercise, we find a less dismal performance of the Italian TFP than usually estimated. Focusing on the years between 2007 and 2016, the upward correction in TFP amounts to around 1.5 percentage points in the overall period for the total economy and to about 2.5 percentage points when only considering manufacturing. These findings shed a somewhat more positive light on future TFP developments in Italy, suggesting a more rapid increase of potential output than otherwise estimated. In addition, the efficiency of installed capital might soon return to growth, as the expected recovery of investment results in the replacement of old vintages with new and more technically advanced ones.

Based on updated datasets of value added and of labour and capital inputs, this paper provides a reassessment of the proximate causes of Italy’s economic development since its political unification in 1861 to 2016. Italy’s pre-WWII economy featured weak productivity growth, with the exception of the Giolitti era and the 1920s. Italy then embarked on an exceptional catching-up process relative to the technological leaders during the Golden Age. Compared with the pre-WWII years, when the Italian economy was held back by slow productivity growth in the large agricultural sector, the catching-up process during the Golden Age was propelled by the rapid shift of labour out of agriculture. As in many countries, this rapid growth in productivity could not be sustained after 1973, but the further slowdown since the 1990s has been more pronounced in Italy than elsewhere. The disappointing performance of the Italian economy since the early 1990s is largely explained by slow labour productivity growth in the now dominant services sector and by sluggish aggregate total factor productivity. Labour productivity developments actually turned negative during the protracted crisis following the global financial turmoil, due to the decline in capital accumulation and in total factor productivity. Since the start of the recovery in 2013, while total factor productivity has returned to a moderately positive trend, the capital stock has not fully overcome the legacy of the crisis.

This paper reviews the main macroeconomic trends and the debate on policy priorities in Italy since the advent of EMU. It argues that, in the decade up to the outbreak of the global crisis (1998-2007), in Italy the reform process came to a virtual standstill and fiscal policy was inconsistent with the commitments taken on at the European level. The paper suggests that the lack of resolute policy reactions to the institutional dysfunctions and structural weaknesses was due to the fragmentation of the political constituency, while a variety of favourable contingent factors masked the difficulties of the productive system. Had Italy been better positioned in terms of public finances and structural features in 2007, some of the adverse effects of the global and sovereign crises would have been avoided. JEL Classification: E6, H3, K0, N1 Keywords: EMU, fiscal policy, macroeconomic imbalances, global crisis, PSL Quarterly Review, V. 67, N. 268 (2014)

The article reviews the key steps in the construction of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the accompanying debate in the academics and within the European institutions, stressing that most vulnerabilities unveiled by the sovereign debt crisis were known long before the inception of the EMU. But the rules, although later amended, largely neglected the critical implications of macroeconomic imbalances for fiscal and sustainability. As the financial tensions deepened, significant progress has been made in enhancing European economic governance, including the new procedure for macroeconomic imbalance surveillance (EIP). The article argues that preventing and correcting macroeconomic imbalances is now one of the EU’s most challenging tasks as major technical and political difficulties still need to be overcome. The EIP represents a major step forward in strengthening the EU’s capability for managing the risks to macroeconomic stability, largely contributing to a common understanding among Member State...

We investigate the determinants of Italian house prices and residential investments in a structural model with possible disequilibria in the market for lending to both households and firms in the building sector. Based on a structural approach that takes into account the multi-fold relationships between demand and supply within the housing and the credit markets, we find that, while house prices react mostly to disposable income and demographic pressures, lending conditions also exert a significant impact. During the recent crises the contribution of declining bank rates to household lending was limited, due to the greater deleveraging needs of Italian banks. Conventional monetary policy has supported house prices, albeit with declining intensity as policy rates have gradually approached the lower bound. At the same time, unconventional monetary policy measures have sustained house prices via their effect on Italian sovereign spreads, which have shrunk by a sizeable amount since they peaked in the period between late 2011 and early 2013. Finally, we find that house price developments stayed in line with the fundamentals, during both the global financial and sovereign debt crisis, with only minor and occasional discrepancies.

In this paper we provide a detailed explanation of the methodology underlying the construction of a new labour and capital stock dataset for Italy since 1861. The existing seminal paper (Rossi, Sorgato and Toniolo 1993) only covered the period 1911-1990 for labour and 1890-1990 for capital; moreover, sectoral disaggregation was limited. The labour dataset presented here includes both headcount and full-time equivalent annual estimates and provides a ten-sector breakdown. Net capital stock annual estimates are instead disaggregated by asset type (transport equipment, machinery and equipment, and construction, in turn divided into residential and non-residential). We then analyse the key features of the structural change in the Italian economy over the more than 150 years since unification. This dataset, combined with the new historical national accounts time series published by the Bank of Italy, finally makes a sectoral analysis of Italy’s long-run development possible.

Since the mid-2000s standard price-competitiveness indicators for some European countries have been providing conflicting signals, particularly in Italy. Against a broad stability of the producer price (PPI)-based measure, the manufacturing unit labour cost (ULCM)-deflated indicator points to a major cumulated loss of competitiveness in Italy. We find that this discrepancy mostly reflects the divergence of ULCM and PPI trends in competitor countries while in Italy they have actually progressed hand in hand. Owing to the internationalization of production processes and to the subsequent fading representativeness of labour in respect of overall costs, seen to a different degree across countries, price-based indicators are arguably more appropriate than those based on ULCMs to assess external competitiveness and external performance. We provide empirical evidence that points in the same direction. In Italy ULC-based indicators play a less important role relative to price-deflated measures in explaining both export and import trends; this result does not hold for Germany and France. Moreover, a proxy for non-price competitiveness proves important in explaining Italian, German and, in particular, Spanish exports.

The volume collects the essays presented at the 15th Workshop on Public Finance organised by Banca d'Italia in Perugia from 4 to 6 April 2013. The workshop focused on the link between fiscal policy and macroeconomic imbalances and comprised four sessions. The first session concentrated on the interaction between fiscal policy and macroeconomic imbalances. The second session dealt with the specific problems of the euro area, where insufficient attention to macroeconomic developments contributed to increase fiscal and financial tensions. The third session scrutinized fiscal policy with an eye to the inequalities of emerging economies and resource-rich countries. The last session analysed the experiences so far and the potential prescriptions about the use of fiscal tools in addressing macroeconomic problems.

Italy's economic growth over its 150 years of unified history did not occur at a steady pace, nor was it balanced across sectors. Relying on an entirely new input (labor and capital) database, this chapter evaluates the different labor productivity growth trends within the Italian economy's sectors, as well as the contribution of structural change to productivity growth. Italy's performance is then set in an international context: a comparison of sectoral labor productivity growth rates and levels within a selected sample of countries (United Kingdom, United States, Germany, Japan, India) allows us to better time, quantify, and gauge the causes of Italy's catching-up process and subsequent more recent slowdown. Finally, the paper analyzes the proximate sources of Italy's growth, relative to the other countries, in a standard growth accounting framework, in an attempt also to disentangle the contribution of both total factor productivity growth and capital deepening to the country's labor productivity dynamics.

The real estate sector is of particular interest from a central bank's perspective; due to its size, it directly and indirectly affects economic developments, financial stability and the monetary policy stance. The volume collects the papers by economists of the Bank of Italy and the discussions by external experts which were presented at the workshop "Trends in the housing market: Italy and the international comparison", held in Rome at the Bank of Italy on 20 November 2012. The various contributions are organised in three sections, which respectively deal with the cyclical pattern of the real estate market in Italy, its structural characteristics and the international comparison.

We estimate a fully-fledged structural system for the housing market in Italy, taking into account the multi-fold link with bank lending to both households and construction firms. The model allows the house supply to vary in the short run and the banking sector to affect the equilibrium in the housing market, through its effect on housing supply and demand. We show that house prices react mostly to standard drivers such as disposable income, expected inflation and demographic pressures. Lending conditions also have a significant impact, especially through their effects on mortgage loans, and consequently on housing demand. Allowing short-run adjustment in house supply implies a weaker response of house prices to a change in the monetary stance or in banks� deleveraging process. Finally, we find that since the mid-eighties house price developments in Italy have been broadly in line with the fundamentals; during the recent financial crisis, the worsening in credit supply conditions dampened house price dynamics, partly offsetting the positive stimulus provided by the easing of the monetary policy stance.

The paper describes the statistical system in China, with a specific focus on the quarterly national accounts and the main source data. After reviewing the progress already made to meet increasing demand for short-term indicators by domestic and international users, we focus on four key issues that remain unresolved, namely: (1) the compilation of discrete data as against the current cumulative reporting; (2) the controversial identification of moving holidays and seasonal effects; (3) the need for new and better targeted source data to monitor infra-annual developments more effectively; (4) the remaining statistical gap for a demand-based estimation of quarterly GDP. To address these questions, we concluded that basic source data and agents reporting strategies need to be carefully reviewed and the possibility considered that sample surveys may soon complement administrative registers more often than in the current practice. Room for further, major progress in the quarterly national accounts of China could be limited in the very short term and the main pitfalls currently affecting source data must therefore be addressed as a matter of urgency.

Italy's economic growth over its 150 years of unified history did not occur at a steady pace nor was it balanced across sectors. Relying on an entirely new input (labour and capital) database by us built and presented in the Appendix, together with new Banca d'Italia estimates of GDP by sector, this paper evaluates the different labour productivity growth trends within the Italian economy's sectors, as well as the contribution of structural change to productivity growth. Italy's performance is then set in an international context: a comparison of sectoral labour productivity growth rates and levels within a selected sample of countries (UK, US, Germany, Japan, India) allows us to better time, quantify and gauge the causes of Italy's catching-up process and subsequent more recent slowdown. Finally, the paper analyses the proximate sources of Italy's growth, relative to the other countries, in a standard growth accounting framework, in an attempt also to disentangle the contribution of both total factor productivity growth and capital deepening to the country's labour productivity dynamics.

In this paper, we investigate whether the completion of the Single Market Programme has enhanced competition on the product markets across European countries, while taking into account the companion structural reforms undertaken by the member countries. In particular, since the Single Market Programme went hand in hand with major reforms in the labour market and in the institutional setting of important industries (i.e. network industries), we test for a break in both mark-ups and the division of rent between capital and labour. For this purpose we encompass efficient bargaining in the labour market in both our theoretical and empirical model. Using industry data for ten EU countries we find that, without controlling for changes in the rent sharing, mark-up estimates tend to increase in the 1990s. However, once we assume efficient bargaining in the labour market, mark-ups remain virtually unchanged or even decrease in some sectors or groups of countries; the result stems from the declining shares of rents accruing to workers owing to a decline in their bargaining power. Without controlling for this development, a rise in firms� profitability due to rent reallocation could be wrongly interpreted as an increase in market power. At the industry level the evidence is particularly strong for high and medium-tech manufacturing, for construction and for those activities that went through deep institutional changes and privatization programmes.

In this paper we focus on Italian aggregate quarterly time series covering the 1980-2008 sample period and test the presence and size of wealth effects on consumption, taking separately account of financial assets and residential property on the basis of new stock measures. We find sound evidence in favour of a cointegrating relation, in which both wealth components display the expected, positive effect on households‘ consumption. In particular, our results point to a lower marginal propensity to consume out of housing than out of non housing net worth, with a respective size laying in the range of 1.5-2 and 4-6 cents. Following the estimate of a vector error correction model, we discuss the role played by transitory and permanent shocks in driving changes in the variables we consider. We have found that both consumption and wealth respond almost exclusively to permanent shocks, which are the sole determinants of the common stochastic trend in our theoretical set-up. As a result, we are confident that our estimates of wealth coefficients in the cointegrating vector match very closely the true long run marginal propensity to consume for Italian households.

In the last decade the Italian economy has underperformed compared both with the previous decades and with the main European countries. It is widely acknowledged that this evolution reflects unresolved structural problems, which have become more urgent in view of the major changes in the world economy (the new technological paradigm, globalization, European economic integration). The goal of the Report is to make a critical survey of all the empirical analyses on the Italian economy and to derive policy suggestions. The evolution of Italy's productive system is examined from a long-run perspective, highlighting weaknesses and possible signs of recovery and elaborating on the systemic features that may have negatively affected growth performance directly or indirectly through the above exogenous shocks. The focus, mostly but not exclusively microeconomic, emphasizes the considerable heterogeneity of firms, a crucial element for identifying the factors that affect economic growth.

Developments in the real-estate sector are of crucial importance for the business cycle and financial stability. This study analyses developments in the Italian housing market on the basis of both real and financial variables. Following the sharp contraction of the market during the financial crisis and the more general fall in economic activity, a few signals suggests that the recession in the housing market is easing somewhat. However, the degree of uncertainty remains considerable. In recent months the ratio between the flow of bad debts to total outstanding loans to households and construction firms has reached the highest levels since the beginning of the decade. The paper also investigates three issues of a more structural nature. First, it examines the performance and the regulatory framework of real-estate investment funds in Italy. Second, it analyses the main characteristics of the taxation of residential housing, with reference to ownership, rentals and transactions. Finally, the paper estimates the impact on residential house prices of the growing demand for housing services by immigrants.

Assembling information from several sources and a drawing on specially designed new survey, this paper finds that the shortfall in the supply of child care facilities remains large with respect to potential demand but is less severe with respect to the effective demand by households in Italy. Controlling for individual characteristics and local external environment, empirical evidence points to the key role played by the cost-quality schedule in supporting formal care. Local governments exert a significant influence on this factor through multiple channels, such as the intensity of regulation on quality standards, the degree of flexibility in the service provision, and the financing and tariff policies. These channels differ widely across geographical areas. The local set-up can give rise to contrasting effects on both the profitability of private childcare providers, who hardly fill the potential gap in the public network, and on household demand, which could benefit to a limited extent from a greater availability of facilities in case these are of unsatisfactory quality.

We present a new indicator of house prices in Italy, with more extensive geographical and time coverage. The new indicator now makes it possible to analyze medium- and long-term trends with satisfactory representation of the Italian housing market. It also allows for timely updating, for prompt assessment of housing input both to the business cycle and to inflationary pressures. We offer a preliminary identification, based solely on graphical inspection, of four different property price cycles since the late 1960s; the latest began at the end of the 1990s and signaled a slowdown since 2006. Finally, we tentatively assess the effect of including transactions in dwellings in the Italian HICP basket according to the net acquisition approach, which apparently results in about a quarter point of additional inflation each year since 2000.

The paper presents a growth accounting exercise for the Italian economy over the last twenty years to assess the role of primary inputs and total factor productivity. The exercise was run at both the aggregate and the disaggregated level. For the first time in Italy it used a measure of capital services, disaggregated into several different components. Special attention was paid to the accumulation of ICT capital goods. A productive capital stock database was prepared, disaggregated by asset and sector, and the respective user costs, adjusted for fiscal factors, were calculated. In the period 1981-2001 total factor productivity contributed for less than one fourth to the Italian economic growth, and in the second half of the nineties TFP decelerated significantly. The largest contribution to economic activity was made by capital formation and specifically by assets not directly linked to new technologies, whose contribution was very small. The service sector, in particular transport and communications and financial intermediation, contributed most to the growth of TFP. In financial intermediation sector the role played by ICT capital was very substantial.

By allowing median voter�s location and preferred policy to change over time, a variety of redistributive policies results in the long-run with no unique relationship to inequality. Single outcome depends on the interaction between the pure economic structure and policy action in determining wealth distribution over time. The standard positive correlation between redistribution and inequality is confirmed when the pattern of social mobility, potentially prevailing in a free market, proves robust to public action. Otherwise the non-linear relationship found in recent literature is confirmed. With balanced intensity of backward and upward mobility in free market, policy cycles endogenously arise, with inequality shrinking and enlarging periodically and counter-cyclically.

The paper provides an econometric analysis of the aggregate saving function of Italian households in the vein of the life cycle theory. Results from an ECM representation based on yearly data for 1951-1998 point to depressive effects on private consumption of recent reforms of social security, actual and expected for next few years. In order to compensate for both reductions in actual pension payments and increased uncertainty about their future claims, households stepped up accumulation of real and financial assets since the beginning of the nineties. First estimates of capital gains do not show a significant impact on consumption demand, in the short and in the long period: their high volatility has likely hindered a fair assessment of their contribution to personal purchasing power on the part of households. Demographic changes, while in the long run not seemingly determined in conjunction with the economic variables we consider, turn out to play a significant role in the evolution of consumption demand.