1. PredictCBC-2.0: a contralateral breast cancer risk prediction model developed and validated in ~ 200,000 patients
- Author
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Giardiello, D., Hooning, M.J., Hauptmann, M., Keeman, R., Heemskerk-Gerritsen, B.A.M., Becher, H., Blomqvist, C., Bojesen, S.E., Bolla, M.K., Camp, N.J., Czene, K., Devilee, P., Eccles, D.M., Fasching, P.A., Figueroa, J.D., Flyger, H., Garcia-Closas, M., Haiman, C.A., Hamann, U., Hopper, J.L., Jakubowska, A., Leeuwen, F.E., Lindblom, A., Lubinski, J., Margolin, S., Martinez, M.E., Nevanlinna, H., Nevelsteen, I., Pelders, S., Pharoah, P.D.P., Siesling, S., Southey, M.C., Hout, A.H. van der, Hest, L.P. van, Chang-Claude, J., Hall, P., Easton, D.F., Steyerberg, E.W., Schmidt, M.K., Medical Oncology, Public Health, Human genetics, CCA - Cancer Treatment and quality of life, Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository, Faculteit Medische Wetenschappen/UMCG, Medicum, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, Department of Oncology, Clinicum, University of Helsinki, HUS Gynecology and Obstetrics, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, and García-Closas, Montserrat [0000-0003-1033-2650]
- Subjects
Clinical Decision-making ,3122 Cancers ,Oncology and Carcinogenesis ,Breast Neoplasms ,BRCA1/2 germline mutation ,Polygenic risk score ,SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being ,Breast Cancer Genetic Predisposition ,Risk Factors ,Breast Cancer ,Genetics ,Humans ,ddc:610 ,Oncology & Carcinogenesis ,Contralateral Preventive Mastectomy ,BCAC ,Breast cancer genetic predisposition ,Mastectomy ,Germ-Line Mutation ,Cancer ,Polygenic Risk Score ,Prevention ,Research ,Brca1/2 Germline Mutation ,Risk prediction ,Contralateral preventive mastectomy ,Prophylactic Mastectomy ,Prediction Performance ,Contralateral breast cancer ,Breast Cancer Association Consortium ,Prediction performance ,Contralateral Breast Cancer ,Female ,Risk Prediction ,Bcac ,Clinical decision-making - Abstract
Background Prediction of contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk is challenging due to moderate performances of the known risk factors. We aimed to improve our previous risk prediction model (PredictCBC) by updated follow-up and including additional risk factors. Methods We included data from 207,510 invasive breast cancer patients participating in 23 studies. In total, 8225 CBC events occurred over a median follow-up of 10.2 years. In addition to the previously included risk factors, PredictCBC-2.0 included CHEK2 c.1100delC, a 313 variant polygenic risk score (PRS-313), body mass index (BMI), and parity. Fine and Gray regression was used to fit the model. Calibration and a time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) at 5 and 10 years were assessed to determine the performance of the models. Decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate the net benefit of PredictCBC-2.0 and previous PredictCBC models. Results The discrimination of PredictCBC-2.0 at 10 years was higher than PredictCBC with an AUC of 0.65 (95% prediction intervals (PI) 0.56–0.74) versus 0.63 (95%PI 0.54–0.71). PredictCBC-2.0 was well calibrated with an observed/expected ratio at 10 years of 0.92 (95%PI 0.34–2.54). Decision curve analysis for contralateral preventive mastectomy (CPM) showed the potential clinical utility of PredictCBC-2.0 between thresholds of 4 and 12% 10-year CBC risk for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and non-carriers. Conclusions Additional genetic information beyond BRCA1/2 germline mutations improved CBC risk prediction and might help tailor clinical decision-making toward CPM or alternative preventive strategies. Identifying patients who benefit from CPM, especially in the general breast cancer population, remains challenging.
- Published
- 2022
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