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Quantitative risk analysis is being extensively employed to support policymakers and provides a strong conceptual framework for evaluating decision alternatives under uncertainty. Many problems involving environmental risks are, however, of a spatial nature, i.e., containing spatial impacts, spatial vulnerabilities, and spatial risk-mitigation alternatives. Recent developments in multicriteria spatial analysis have enabled the assessment and aggregation of multiple impacts, supporting policymakers in spatial evaluation problems. However, recent attempts to conduct spatial multicriteria risk analysis have generally been weakly conceptualized, without adequate roots in quantitative risk analysis. Moreover, assessments of spatial risk often neglect the multidimensional nature of spatial impacts (e.g., social, economic, human) that are typically occurring in such decision problems. The aim of this article is therefore to suggest a conceptual quantitative framework for environmental multicriteria spatial risk analysis based on expected multi-attribute utility theory. The framework proposes: (i) the formal assessment of multiple spatial impacts; (ii) the aggregation of these multiple spatial impacts; (iii) the assessment of spatial vulnerabilities and probabilities of occurrence of adverse events; (iv) the computation of spatial risks; (v) the assessment of spatial risk mitigation alternatives; and (vi) the design and comparison of spatial risk mitigation alternatives (e.g., reductions of vulnerabilities and/or impacts). We illustrate the use of the framework in practice with a case study based on a flood-prone area in northern Italy.

We studied the impact of driver mutations of JAK2, CALR, (calreticulin gene) or MPL on clinical course, leukemic transformation, and survival of patients with primary myelofibrosis (PMF). Of the 617 subjects studied, 399 (64.7%) carried JAK2 (V617F), 140 (22.7%) had a CALR exon 9 indel, 25 (4.0%) carried an MPL (W515) mutation, and 53 (8.6%) had nonmutated JAK2, CALR, and MPL (so-called triple-negative PMF). Patients with CALR mutation had a lower risk of developing anemia, thrombocytopenia, and marked leukocytosis compared with other subtypes. They also had a lower risk of thrombosis compared with patients carrying JAK2 (V617F). At the opposite, triple-negative patients had higher incidence of leukemic transformation compared with either CALR-mutant or JAK2-mutant patients. Median overall survival was 17.7 years in CALR-mutant, 9.2 years in JAK2-mutant, 9.1 years in MPL-mutant, and 3.2 years in triple-negative patients. In multivariate analysis corrected for age, CALR-mutant patients had better overall survival than either JAK2-mutant or triple-negative patients. The impact of genetic lesions on survival was independent of current prognostic scoring systems. These observations indicate that driver mutations define distinct disease entities within PMF. Accounting for them is not only relevant to clinical decision-making, but should also be considered in designing clinical trials.

Bone marrow (BM) examination is essential in the staging of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) patients. Few studies have compared BM histologic findings with results of flow cytometric (FC) analysis. We analyzed the incidence and patterns of histologic BM involvement in a series of 753 patients with NHL. For 498 patients, a concurrent FC analysis on BM was available. Histologic involvement was detected at diagnosis in 311/753 (41%) patients. By FC, BM involvement was clearly detected in 150/498 (30%). After excluding 12 cases with equivocal histology, concordance between the two methods was detected in 411 (85%) cases (27% BMB+/FC+; 58% BMB-/FC-), while discordance was present in 75 (15%) (P0.001): 58 cases (12%) were BMB+/FC- and 17 (3%) were BMB-/FC+. Discordance was more frequent in FL and in lymphoplasmacytic lymphoma (LPL). These data demonstrate that the two methods are comparable in qualitative assessment of BM involvement in NHL, with the exception of FL and LPL. In FL, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and LPL, FC underestimates the extent of infiltrate with respect to histology.

Clonal cytopenia of undetermined significance (CCUS) is associated with an increased risk of developing a myeloid neoplasm with myelodysplasia (MN). To identify the features of the mutant clone(s) that is associated with clinical phenotype and progression, we studied the following cohorts of individuals: 311 patients with idiopathic cytopenia of undetermined significance (ICUS), 532 community-dwelling individuals without hematologic phenotype (n = 355) or with unexplained anemia (n = 177), and 592 patients with overt MN. Ninety-two of 311 (30%) patients with ICUS carried a somatic genetic lesion that signaled CCUS. Clonal hematopoiesis (CH) was detected in 19.7% and 27.7% of nonanemic and anemic community-dwelling individuals, respectively. Different mutation patterns and variant allele frequencies (VAFs) (clone metrics parameters) were observed in the conditions studied. Recurrent mutation patterns exhibited different VAFs associated with marrow dysplasia (0.17-0.48), indicating variable clinical expressivity of mutant clones. Unsupervised clustering analysis based on mutation profiles identified 2 major clusters, characterized by isolated DNMT3A mutations (CH-like cluster) or combinatorial mutation patterns (MN-like cluster), and showing different overall survival (HR, 1.8). In patients with CCUS, the 2 clusters had different risk of progression to MN (HR, 2.7). Within the MN-like cluster, distinct subsets with different risk of progression to MN were identified based on clone metrics. These findings unveil marked variability in the clinical expressivity of myeloid driver genes and underline the limitations of morphologic dysplasia for clinical staging of mutant hematopoietic clones. Clone metrics appears to be critical for informing clinical decision-making in patients with clonal cytopenia.

Co-crystals are crystalline complexes of two or more molecules bound together in crystal lattices through noncovalent interactions. The solubility and dissolution properties of co-crystals can allow to increase the bioavailability of poorly water-soluble active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). It is currently believed that the co-crystallization strategy should not induce changes on the pharmacological profile of the APIs, even if it is not yet clear whether a co-crystal would be defined as a physical mixture or as a new chemical entity. In order to clarify these aspects, we chose indomethacin as guest poorly aqueous soluble molecule and compared its properties with those of its co-crystals obtained with 2-hydroxy-4-methylpyridine (co-crystal 1), 2-methoxy-5-nitroaniline (co-crystal 2), and saccharine (co-crystal 3). In particular, we performed a systematic comparison among indomethacin, its co-crystals, and their parent physical mixtures by evaluating via HPLC analysis the API dissolution profile, its ability to permeate across intestinal cell monolayers (NCM460), and its oral bioavailability in rat. The indomethacin dissolution profile was not altered by the presence of co-crystallizing agents as physical mixtures, whereas significant changes were observed by the dissolution of the co-crystals. Furthermore, there was a qualitative concordance between the API dissolution patterns and the relative oral bioavailabilities in rats. Co-crystal 1 induced a drastic decrease of the transepithelial electrical resistance (TEER) value of NCM460 cell monolayers, whereas its parent mixture did not evidence any effect. The saccharin-indomethacin mixture induced a drastic decrease of the TEER value of monolayers, whereas its parent co-crystal 3 did not induce any effects on their integrity, being anyway able to increase the permeation of indomethacin. Taken together, these results demonstrate for the first time different effects induced by co-crystals and their parent physical mixtures on a biologic system, findings that could raise serious concerns about the use of co-crystal strategy to improve API bioavailability without performing appropriate investigations.

The World Health Organization classification of myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) is based on morphological evaluation of marrow dysplasia. We performed a systematic review of cytological and histological data from 1150 patients with peripheral blood cytopenia. We analyzed the frequency and discriminant power of single morphological abnormalities. A score to define minimal morphological criteria associated to the presence of marrow dysplasia was developed. This score showed high sensitivity/specificity (>90%), acceptable reproducibility and was independently validated. The severity of granulocytic and megakaryocytic dysplasia significantly affected survival. A close association was found between ring sideroblasts and SF3B1 mutations, and between severe granulocytic dysplasia and mutation of ASXL1, RUNX1, TP53 and SRSF2 genes. In myeloid neoplasms with fibrosis, multilineage dysplasia, hypolobulated/multinucleated megakaryocytes and increased CD34+ progenitors in the absence of JAK2, MPL and CALR gene mutations were significantly associated with a myelodysplastic phenotype. In myeloid disorders with marrow hypoplasia, granulocytic and/or megakaryocytic dysplasia, increased CD34+ progenitors and chromosomal abnormalities are consistent with a diagnosis of MDS. The proposed morphological score may be useful to evaluate the presence of dysplasia in cases without a clearly objective myelodysplastic phenotype. The integration of cytological and histological parameters improves the identification of MDS cases among myeloid disorders with fibrosis and hypocellularity.

INTRODUCTION. Hairy cell leukemia (HCL) is a rare indolent B-cell malignancy, mainly characterized by peripheral cytopenias and splenomegaly. The current standard of treatment for HCL are Nucleoside Analogs (NA) cladribine and pentostatin, which produce remarkably high remission rates and durable responses. Aim of this study was to evaluate efficacy, short- and long-term toxicity of NA in HCL pts treated outside clinical trials. PATIENTS AND METHODS. We retrospectively analyzed 86 HCL patients (pts) treated with NA between 1996 and 2015 in two Hematologic Centers in Italy. The study was conducted in accordance to the Helsinki Declaration of 1964, as revised in 2000. Cladribine and pentostatin were administered according to standard schedules. Response criteria published by Jones et al. (Br J Haematol 2012) were retrospectively applied. Molecular assessment of BRAF-V600E mutation before and after NA therapy using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR)-based allelic discrimination assay (sensitivity 0.1%) was performed in 10 pts. RESULTS. The median follow-up of pts (71 males and 15 females, median age 53 years) was 5.8 years (range 0.5-28). During the disease course, 86 pts were treated with NA (cladribine n=76, 88%; pentostatin n=10, 12%); 59 pts received NA front-line (cladribine in 56/59 pts, 95%). Among the other 27 pts, receiving NA as second or subsequent line of therapy, 25 had been previously treated with interferon. Median time from diagnosis to the first NA was 3.3 months (range 0-315). Hematological toxicity was observed in 53 of 77 evaluable pts (69%), and was not significantly different with cladribine (72%) or with pentostatin (37%) (p=0.1). Grade 3-4 neutropenia, anemia and thrombocytopenia were observed in 50 (65%), 7 (9%) and 7 (9%) pts respectively. Extra-hematological toxicity was reported in 48 of 79 evaluable pts (61%). The incidence of extra-hematological toxicity with cladribine (63%) and pentostatin (37%) was not statistically different (p=0.2). Grade 3-4 febrile neutropenia was observed in 24 pts (30%); 9 pts (11%) had grade 3-4 infections; 4 pts (5%) had grade 3-4 skin toxicity, 1 pt (1%) had grade 3 hepatic toxicity. Four of 86 pts (5%) developed a second malignancy (prostatic adenocarcinoma n=2, colon adenocarcinoma n=1, diffuse large B cell lymphoma n=1). The median time from NA to second malignancy was 58 months (range 49-111). Four of 86 pts (5%) developed a skin cancer (basal-cell carcinoma n=3, squamous cell carcinoma n=1), after a median time of 59 months (range 16-126). Response was assessed at a median time of 3 months after the end of therapy. Overall Response Rate (ORR) and Complete Remission (CR) Rate were respectively 93% and 63% in the entire cohort, and 98% and 72% in pts treated with NA front-line. The allelic burden of BRAF before and after therapy with NA was available in 10 cases; none of the pts in clinical CR after NA achieved a complete molecular response (Table 1). The median Progression-Free Survival (PFS) for pts treated with NA frontline was 6.5 years. There was a trend toward a longer PFS in pts receiving NA as first-line therapy as compared to those treated in second or subsequent lines (p=0.05). PFS curves according to type of NA and line of therapy are shown in Figure 1. The 5- and 10-year Overall Survival (OS) rates were 96% (95% CI: 85% - 99%) and 90% (95% CI 76%-96%) respectively. OS was similar in pts treated with cladribine orpentostatin (p=0.49). CONCLUSIONS. This study shows that: i) NA are associated with an acceptable toxicity, neutropenia and febrile neutropenia being the main complications of therapy; ii) timing of response assessment may account for a CR rate that is slightly lower than reported in the literature, confirming the importance of waiting at least 4 months for response evaluation as recommended by current guidelines; iii) the persistence of molecular disease also in pts achieving a clinical CR supports the implementation of consolidation strategies aimed at eradicating minimal residual disease to prolong disease-free survival. Table 1. BRAF allelic burden before and after therapy Patient Age (years) Sex Line of Therapy Allelic Burden (%) Clinical Response Pre- Post- 1 33 F 1 21,8 0,1 CR 2 36 M 2 5,4 0,4 CR 3 39 M 1 24,2 0,7 CR 4 54 M 1 10,8 0,3 PR 5 42 F 1 44 1,2 CR 6 53 F 1 7,9 0,2 NV 7 56 M 1 6,5 0,3 CR 8 54 M 1 12,2 0,2 CR 9 32 M 1 35,8 9,5 PR 10 38 M 2 54,4 12,2 PR Figure 1. Progression-free survival according to type of NA and line of therapy Figure 1. Progression-free survival according to type of NA and line of therapy Disclosures Arcaini: Gilead: Consultancy, Other: Advisory Board; Celgene: Consultancy, Other: Advisory Board; Roche: Consultancy, Other: Advisory Board.