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Beef production represents a complex global sustainability challenge including reducing poverty and hunger and the need for climate action. Understanding the trade-offs between these goals at a global scale and at resolutions to inform land use is critical for a global transition towards sustainable beef. Here we optimize global beef production at fine spatial resolution and identify trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives interpretable to global sustainability ambitions. We reveal that shifting production areas, compositions of current feeds and informed land restoration enable large emissions reductions of 34–85% annually (612–1,506 MtCO2e yr−1) without increasing costs. Even further reductions are possible but come at a trade-off with costs of production. Critically our approach can help to identify such trade-offs among multiple sustainability goals, produces fine-resolution mapping to inform required land-use change and does so at the scale necessary to shift towards a globally sustainable industry for beef and to sectors beyond.

Humanity is on a pathway of unsustainable loss of the natural systems upon which we, and all life, rely. To date, global efforts to deliver internationally-agreed goals to reduce carbon emissions, halt biodiversity loss, and retain essential ecosystem services, have been poorly integrated. All these goals rely in part on preserving natural (e.g. native, largely unmodified) and semi-natural (e.g. under some form of low intensity/sustainable human use) forests, woodlands and grasslands. Here, we show how to unify these goals by empirically deriving spatially explicit, quantitative area-based targets for the retention of natural and semi-natural (e.g. native) terrestrial vegetation. We found that at least 67 million km

Summary: Background: Previous studies focusing on urban, industrialised regions have found that excess heat exposure can increase all-cause mortality, heat-related illnesses, and occupational injuries. However, little research has examined how deforestation and climate change can adversely affect work conditions and population health in low latitude, industrialising countries. Methods: For this modelling study we used data at 1 km2 resolution to compare forest cover and temperature conditions in the Berau regency, Indonesia, between 2002 and 2018. We used spatially explicit satellite, climate model, and population data to estimate the effects of global warming, between 2002 and 2018 and after applying 1·0°C, 1·5°C, and 2·0°C of global warming to 2018 temperatures, on all-cause mortality and unsafe work conditions in the Berau regency, Indonesia. Findings: Between 2002 and 2018, 4375 km2 of forested land in Berau was cleared, corresponding to approximately 17% of the entire regency. Deforestation increased mean daily maximum temperatures by 0·95°C (95% CI 0·97–0·92; p

In the past two decades, drifting fish aggregation devices (FADs) have revolutionised pelagic fisheries, and are now responsible for the majority of tuna purse seine catches. Here, we argue that by taking advantage of the same proven aggregative properties, FADs could be used to enhance the benefits provided by blue water Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). Using models of commercially-targeted fish populations, we explore the potential benefits that could be achieved if unfished conservation FADs were positioned within blue water MPAs. Our results suggest that conservation FADs could deliver benefits, both to target species and the broader ecosystem. By increasing the residence time of exploited species, conservation FADs will reduce average mortality rates inside MPAs. By increasing the local density of species whose populations are depressed by exploitation, FADs can also improve the function of ecosystems in blue water MPAs. Conservation FADs could therefore amplify the benefits of blue water MPAs. We find this amplification is largest in those contexts where blue water MPAs have attracted the most criticism - when their area is small compared to both the open ocean and the distribution of fish stocks that move through them.

Indigenous knowledge systems hold detailed information on current and past environments that can inform ecological understanding as well as contemporary environmental management. Despite its applicability, there are limited examples of indigenous knowledge being incorporated in species distribution models, which are widely used in the ecological sciences. In a collaborative manner, we designed a structured elicitation process and statistical framework to combine indigenous knowledge with survey data to model the distribution of a threatened and culturally significant species (greater bilby or mankarr [Macrotis lagotis]). We used Martu (Aboriginal people of the Australian western deserts) occurrence knowledge and presence data from track-based surveys to create predictive species distribution models with the Maxent program. Predictions of species distribution based on Martu knowledge were broader than those created with survey data. Together the Martu and survey models showed potential local declines, which were supported by Martu observation. Both data types were influenced by sampling bias that appeared to affect model predictions and performance. Martu provided additional information on habitat associations and locations of decline and descriptions of the ecosystem dynamics and disturbance regimes that influence occupancy. We concluded that intercultural approaches that draw on multiple sources of knowledge and information types may improve species distribution modeling and inform management of threatened or culturally significant species.Inclusión del Conocimiento Indígena en el Modelado de la Distribución de Especies para Incrementar el Conocimiento Ecológico Resumen Los sistemas de conocimiento indígena albergan información detallada sobre ambientes actuales y pasados que pueden informar al entendimiento ecológico así como al manejo ambiental contemporáneo. A pesar de su utilidad, los ejemplos de incorporación del conocimiento indígena dentro de los modelos de distribución de especies, usados ampliamente en las ciencias ecológicas, son limitados. Diseñamos de manera colaborativa un proceso estructurado de elicitación y un marco de trabajo estadístico para combinar el conocimiento indígena con información de censos para modelar la distribución de una especie amenazada y culturalmente significativa (el bilbi mayor o mankarr [Macrotis lagotis]). Usamos el conocimiento de los Martu (pueblo aborigen de los desiertos occidentales de Australia) sobre la incidencia de la especie junto con los datos de presencia de la misma obtenidos de censos basados en rastros para crear modelos predictivos de la distribución de la especie mediante el programa Maxent. Las predicciones de la distribución de la especie basados en el conocimiento de los Martu fueron más amplias que aquéllas creadas con los datos de los censos. En conjunto, ambos modelos, el de los Martu y el de los censos, mostraron declinaciones locales potenciales, las cuales estuvieron respaldadas con las observaciones de los Martu. Ambos tipos de datos estuvieron influenciados por el sesgo de muestreo que pareció afectar al desempeño y a las predicciones del modelo. Los Martu proporcionaron información adicional sobre las asociaciones de hábitat y las ubicaciones de las declinaciones, además de descripciones de las dinámicas del ecosistema y los regímenes de perturbación que influyen sobre la ocupación de la especie. Concluimos que las estrategias interculturales que parten de varias fuentes de conocimiento y tipos de información pueden mejorar el modelado de la distribución de especies y generar información para el manejo de especies amenazadas o culturalmente significativas.原住民知识系统保存着关于当前和过去的环境情况, 可以为生态学知识和当代环境管理提供重要信息。虽然原住民知识具有利用价值, 但将其纳入生态学中广泛使用的物种分布模型的例子却十分有限。我们以合作的方式设计了一套结构化启发式过程和统计框架, 结合了原住民知识和调查数据, 对一个受威胁且具有文化意义的物种 (兔袋狸 Macrotis lagotis) 的分布进行建模 。我们用马尔图人 (澳大利亚西部沙漠原住民) 对动物出现情况的了解和追踪调查获得的分布数据, 通过 Maxent 软件建立了该物种分布预测模型。基于马尔图人知识的物种分布预测比基于调查数据的预测范围更广, 且二者都显示当地种群有潜在下降趋势, 这也与马尔图人的观察结果一致。这两种数据类型都受到抽样偏差的影响, 可能会进而影响模型预测和性能。此外, 马尔图人还提供了关于生境相关性和种群下降地点的更多信息, 以及影响物种占据生境的生态系统动态和扰动情况的描述。总的来说, 利用多种知识来源和信息类型的跨文化方法有助于改进物种分布建模, 并为受威胁或具有文化意义的物种的管理提供信息。 翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚.

Establishing systems of protected areas (PAs) and other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs) is a key strategy to reversing biodiversity loss (CBD SBSTA, 2021; Maxwell et al., 2020). As part of its mandate to safeguard biodiversity, the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) provided clear international targets on establishing PAs and OECMs in 2010. Aichi Target 11 called for the protection of 10% of marine and 17% of terrestrial areas globally (CBD, 2010). These percentages were interim targets to encourage ambition while ensuring tractability and not necessarily based on conservation needs (Woodley et al. 2019). There is general consensus that the percentages behind Target 11 were insufficient to protect all important aspects of Earth's biodiversity. Proposed replacement percentages range from 28% to 80%, depending on the desired outcome (Butchart et al., 2015, Dinerstein et al. 2019, Woodley et al. 2019, Jones et al., 2020). As the CBD finalizes its post-2020 strategic plan - the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) - there is consensus that it must include more ambitious area-based targets paired with stronger implementation mechanisms (Visconti et al., 2019; Maxwell et al., 2020). Most lessons learned from the outcomes of Aichi Target 11 relate to the suitability of its environmental targets, potentially obscuring how it affected social equity (the absence of avoidable and unfair cost and benefit distributions) (McDermott et al., 2013). The power to implement CBD targets lies with countries through their national biodiversity strategic and action plans (NBSAPs). Whether targets are achieved equitably depends on decision-makers within national borders. However, global conservation is inherently a transboundary pursuit; costs of environmental degradation and benefits of conservation spill over borders (Mason et al., 2020; Roberson et al., 2020). Geopolitical states have high variability in the numbers of threatened species and habitats within their borders and varied abilities to conserve based on financial capacities, conflict, and collective attitudes toward conservation. These realities require consideration of equity beyond the local scale to equity among geopolitical states in global conservation efforts (Sarkki & Garcia, 2019). To date, the CBD has emphasized equitable benefit sharing, or the fair distribution of benefits from the harvest or study of biological resources (Nagoya Protocol). There has been less emphasis on equitable cost-sharing, which includes direct costs of establishing and managing PAs and opportunity costs of not undertaking certain economic activities (e.g., agriculture) in PAs (Naidoo & Iwamura, 2007). Costs pose significant short-term barriers to halting biodiversity loss (Waldron et al., 2013; Maxwell et al., 2020). Once adequate financing and equitable cost-sharing are achieved, long-term revenues and ecosystem services of most PAs are projected to exceed implementation and opportunity costs (Waldron et al., 2020). However, interventions are still needed to alleviate the short-term costs certain groups may bear. Although the CBD does not legally require that countries implement equitable cost-sharing, finalization of the GBF presents an opportunity to apply social equity concepts to its revised area-based conservation strategy for just and effective implementation. We highlighted this opportunity by identifying lessons learned from Aichi Target 11 through the lens of social equity theory. We then devised recommendations on how to approach equitable cost-sharing among countries for PAs in the post-2020 GBF.

Competition for land resources is intense, with growing demand for food and resources to support humanity. Despite this, global agricultural area has significantly declined over the past two decades due to socio–political trends, market changes and environmental degradation. Although expensive, restoring degraded lands that are no longer contested for agricultural use due to low productivity may present a major conservation opportunity with minimal social or political opposition. Here we present a new perspective for conservation that highlights the potential conservation value of uncontested lands. We highlight key factors that make lands uncontested, define an approach for evaluating costs and benefits on uncontested land parcels and propose methods for identifying these lands. Land use is one of the most contested issues facing global conservation, but degraded lands should be the focus of governments and trusts to take and conserve uncontested areas for nature.

Socio–environmental synthesis as a research approach contributes to broader sustainability policy and practice by reusing data from disparate disciplines in innovative ways. Synthesizing diverse data sources and types of evidence can help to better conceptualize, investigate and address increasingly complex socio–environmental problems. However, sharing qualitative data for re-use remains uncommon when compared to sharing quantitative data. We argue that qualitative data present untapped opportunities for sustainability science, and discuss practical pathways to facilitate and realize the benefits from sharing and reusing qualitative data. However, these opportunities and benefits are also hindered by practical, ethical and epistemological challenges. To address these challenges and accelerate qualitative data sharing, we outline enabling conditions and suggest actions for researchers, institutions, funders, data repository managers and publishers. Opportunities, challenges and recommended targeted actions to accelerate qualitative data sharing to address complex socio–environmental problems

Selective logging in tropical forests changes the local number of animal species (alpha diversity), but it also likely affects species turnover (beta diversity). Whilst such changes are documented in many ecosystems under different disturbances, they are poorly understood in selectively logged tropical forests. By using soundscape recordings across broad spatial scales, we measured soundscape saturation and dissimilarity of pairs of soundscapes, as a proxy of alpha and beta diversity, respectively, in selectively logged and protected tropical forest in Indonesian Borneo. Soundscapes of selectively logged forests were more homogeneous than the soundscapes of never logged forest, and that soundscape saturation of protected forest was higher during the day and lower at night in comparison with selective logging concessions. Synthesis and applications. Selectively logged forests act as an important reservoir of biodiversity. Optimizing such production forests for biodiversity conservation requires the consideration of the total continuous area that is assigned to selective logging, and spatial arrangement of annual cutting blocks, as these could affect beta diversity and its recovery.

Innovation has the potential to enable conservation science and practice to keep pace with the escalating threats to global biodiversity, but this potential will only be realized if such innovations are designed and developed to fulfill specific needs and solve well-defined conservation problems. We propose that business-world strategies for assessing the practicality of innovation can be applied to assess the viability of innovations, such as new technology, for addressing biodiversity conservation challenges. Here, we outline a five-step, "lean start-up" based approach for considering conservation innovation from a business-planning perspective. Then, using three prominent conservation initiatives - Marxan (software), Conservation Drones (technology support), and Mataki (wildlife-tracking devices) - as case studies, we show how considering proposed initiatives from the perspective of a conceptual business model can support innovative technologies in achieving desired conservation outcomes.

Advancing technology represents an unprecedented opportunity to enhance our capacity to conserve the Earth's biodiversity. However, this great potential is failing to materialize and rarely endures. We contend that unleashing the power of technology for conservation requires an internationally coordinated strategy that connects the conservation community and policy-makers with technologists. We argue an international conservation technology entity could (1) provide vision and leadership, (2) coordinate and deliver key services necessary to ensure translation from innovation to effective deployment and use of technology for on-the-ground conservation across the planet, and (3) help integrate innovation into biodiversity conservation policy from local to global scales, providing tools to monitor outcomes of conservation action and progress towards national and international biodiversity targets. This proposed entity could take the shape of an international alliance of conservation institutions or a formal intergovernmental institution. Active and targeted uptake of emerging technology can help society achieve biodiversity conservation goals.

Climate change and land use change are increasing average and extreme temperatures. Hotter temperatures can detrimentally affect workers’ health and their economic productivity and livelihoods, especially in rural areas in industrializing countries that may be more vulnerable and less resilient. A growing literature has examined these factors at large spatial scales, yet few studies have done so at finer scales. Micro-level data from developing regions is needed to understand the extent of heat exposure, as well as current and future adaptation strategies of working, healthy, and rural populations. We fill this gap using objective environmental measurements from 3MTM QuestempTM 46 Heat Stress Monitors, as well as survey data from working, healthy, and rural communities in East Kalimantan, Indonesia. Our data contain two groups: those who work in only open areas, and those who work in both forests and open areas. We document workers’ livelihood strategies, work schedules, perceptions of how temperatures impact their work, and future adaptation strategies for even hotter days. Ambient temperatures are 2.6–8.3 °C cooler in forests compared to open areas, indicating the temperature effects of deforestation can be immediate and significant. Those working only in open areas face up to 6.5 h of exposure to temperatures above the accepted Threshold Limit Value for worker well-being. Workers adapt to hotter temperatures by altering the timing of their work shifts and breaks, indicating our sample is already adapting to increasing temperatures from climate and land use change. We also find differential adaptation strategies between those working only in open areas compared to those working in both forests and open areas, suggesting current acclimatization may be a factor in how people adapt. Our results suggest the need for adaptation and mitigation policies tailored to the unique constraints of rural workers that specifically incorporate extant adaptation strategies.

Spatial prioritization is a critical step in conservation planning, a process designed to ensure that limited resources are applied in ways that deliver the highest possible returns for biodiversity and human wellbeing. In practice, many spatial prioritizations fall short of their potential by focusing on places rather than actions, and by using data of snapshots of assets or threats rather than estimated impacts. We introduce spatial action mapping as an approach that overcomes these shortfalls. This approach produces a spatially explicit view of where and how much a given conservation action is likely to contribute to achieving stated conservation goals. Through seven case examples, we demonstrate simple to complex versions of how this method can be applied across local to global scales to inform decisions about a wide range of conservation actions and benefits. Spatial action mapping can support major improvements in efficient use of conservation resources and will reach its full potential as the quality of environmental, social, and economic datasets converge and conservation impact evaluations improve.

Humanity is on a pathway of unsustainable loss of the natural systems upon which we, and all life, rely. To date, global efforts to achieve internationally-agreed goals to reduce carbon emissions, halt biodiversity loss, and retain essential ecosystem services, have been poorly integrated. However, these different goals all rely on preserving natural ecosystems. Here, we show how to unify these goals by empirically deriving spatially-explicit, quantitative area-based targets for the retention of natural terrestrial ecosystems. We found that at least 67 million km2of Earth’s natural terrestrial ecosystems (~79% of the area remaining) require retention – via a combination of strict protection but more prominently through sustainably managed land use regimes complemented by restoration actions – to contribute to biodiversity, climate, soil and freshwater objectives under four United Nations’ Resolutions. This equates to retaining natural ecosystems across ~50% of the total terrestrial (excluding Antarctica) surface of Earth. Our results show where retention efforts could be focussed to contribute to multiple goals simultaneously. The retention targets concept that we present explicitly recognises that such management can and should co-occur alongside and be driven by the people who live in and rely on places where natural and semi-natural ecosystems remain on Earth.

A hopeful vision of the future is a world in which both people and nature thrive, but there is little evidence to support the feasibility of such a vision. We used a global, spatially explicit, systems modeling approach to explore the possibility of meeting the demands of increased populations and economic growth in 2050 while simultaneously advancing multiple conservation goals. Our results demonstrate that if, instead of “business as usual” practices, the world changes how and where food and energy are produced, this could help to meet projected increases in food (54%) and energy (56%) demand while achieving habitat protection (>50% of natural habitat remains unconverted in most biomes globally; 17% area of each ecoregion protected in each country), reducing atmospheric greenhouse-gas emissions consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement (≤1.6°C warming by 2100), ending overfishing, and reducing water stress and particulate air pollution. Achieving this hopeful vision for people and nature is attainable with existing technology and consumption patterns. However, success will require major shifts in production methods and an ability to overcome substantial economic, social, and political challenges.

Raising funds is critical for conserving biodiversity and hence so too is scrutinizing emerging financial mechanisms that might help achieve this goal. In this context, anecdotal evidence indicates crowdfunding is being used to support a variety of activities needed for biodiversity conservation, yet its magnitude and allocation remain largely unknown. We conducted a global analysis to help address this knowledge gap, based on empirical data from conservation‐focused projects extracted from crowdfunding platforms. For each project, we determined the funds raised, date, country of implementation, proponent characteristics, activity type, biodiversity realm, and target taxa. We identified 72 relevant platforms and 577 conservation‐focused projects that have raised US$4 790 634 since 2009. Whilst proponents were based in 38 countries, projects were delivered across 80 countries, indicating a potential mechanism of resource mobilization. Proponents were from non‐governmental organizations (35%), universities (30%), or were freelancers (26%). Most projects were for research (40%), persuasion (31%), and on‐ground actions (21%). Projects have focused primarily on species (57.7%) and terrestrial ecosystems (20.3%), and less on marine (8.8%) and freshwater ecosystems (3.6%). Projects have focused on 208 species, including a disproportionate number of threatened bird and mammal species. Crowdfunding for biodiversity conservation has now become a global phenomenon and presents signals for potential expansion, despite possible pitfalls. Opportunities arise from its spatial amplifying effect, steady increase over time, inclusion of Cinderella species, adoption by multiple actors, and funding of a range of activities beyond research. Our study paves the way for further research on key questions, such as campaign success rates, effectiveness, and drivers of adoption. Even though the capital input of crowdfunding so far has been modest compared to other conservation finance mechanisms, its contribution goes beyond funding research and providing capital. Embraced with due care, crowdfunding could potentially become an increasingly important financial mechanism for biodiversity conservation.

The combined effects of changes in climate and land cover expose millions of people to an increased likelihood of heat illness. Impacts of heat stress on health have primarily been quantified for urban environments, particularly in developed countries. Far less is known in other settings, including the effects of ongoing tropical deforestation on local temperature and its consequences for people living in these rapidly changing landscapes. Here, we explore links between deforestation and self-reported human health and well-being in the tropical landscapes of Borneo. We use extensive social surveys from nearly 500 villages throughout Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) that asked whether forests were important for health, and why. The most frequent answer viewed forests as important for maintaining cool local temperatures (volunteered by 28% of 4634 respondents). Using boosted regression tree analysis incorporating spatial metrics of deforestation and temperature, we found that villagers were more likely to report this cooling effect if they were from villages with higher or more variable temperatures, and in recently deforested or fragmented landscapes. Our results highlight the role of forests in regulating the local climate. This ecosystem service is highly threatened, and yet increasingly vital for avoiding heat illness and enabling adaptation to global climate change.

Knowledge that can be gained from acoustic data collection in tropical ecosystems is low‐hanging fruit. There is every reason to record and with every day, there are fewer excuses not to do it. In recent years, the cost of acoustic recorders has decreased substantially (some can be purchased for under US$50, e.g., Hill et al. 2018) and the technology needed to store and analyze acoustic data is continuously improving (e.g., Corrada Bravo et al. 2017, Xie et al. 2017). Soundscape recordings provide a permanent record of a site at a given time and contain a wealth of invaluable and irreplaceable information. Although challenges remain, failure to collect acoustic data now in tropical ecosystems would represent a failure to future generations of tropical researchers and the citizens that benefit from ecological research. In this commentary, we (1) argue for the need to increase acoustic monitoring in tropical systems; (2) describe the types of research questions and conservation issues that can be addressed with passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) using both short‐ and long‐term data in terrestrial and freshwater habitats; and (3) present an initial plan for establishing a global repository of tropical recordings.

The collection of accurate fisheries catch data is critical to ensuring sustainable management of tuna fisheries, mitigating their environmental impacts and for managing transboundary fish stocks. These challenges are exemplified by the western Pacific tuna longline fishery, who’s management includes >26 nations, but is informed by critically low coverage of fishing activities by scientific observers. The gap in observer data could be filled by electronic monitoring (EM), but there are few trials that span multiple nations. A large-scale trial of EM systems on tuna longliners based in Palau, Federated States of Micronesia and the Republic of the Marshall Islands, is reported on. Comparisons are made of catch rates of market and bycatch species in corresponding EM, logbook and human observer data. Retained species were under-reported in logbooks by up to three times and discards of many species were not reported in logbooks. Discards identified in the EM data included threatened species such as marine turtles. Catch rate estimates from EM data were comparable to those estimated by human observers. EM data recorded a higher species diversity of catches than logbook data. Analysis of the EM data indicated clusters of bycatch that were associated with specific fishing practices. These results suggest further expansion of EM could inform improved management of both target and bycatch species. Ultimately greater coverage of EM data could contribute to reconciling debates in international stock allocation schemes and support actions to reduce the impacts of the fishery on threatened bycatch species.

There is global concern about tropical forest degradation, in part, because of the associated loss of biodiversity. Communities and indigenous people play a fundamental role in tropical forest management and are often efficient at preventing forest degradation. However, monitoring changes in biodiversity due to degradation, especially at a scale appropriate to local tropical forest management, is plagued by difficulties, including the need for expert training, inconsistencies across observers, and lack of baseline or reference data. We used a new biodiversity remote-sensing technology, the recording of soundscapes, to test whether the acoustic saturation of a tropical forest in Papua New Guinea decreases as land-use intensity by the communities that manage the forest increases. We sampled soundscapes continuously for 24 hours at 34 sites in different land-use zones of 3 communities. Land-use zones where forest cover was fully retained had significantly higher soundscape saturation during peak acoustic activity times (i.e., dawn and dusk chorus) compared with land-use types with fragmented forest cover. We conclude that, in Papua New Guinea, the relatively simple measure of soundscape saturation may provide a cheap, objective, reproducible, and effective tool for monitoring tropical forest deviation from an intact state, particularly if it is used to detect the presence of intact dawn and dusk choruses.

As the source providing units for several goods and services required for human survival (e.g. food, fuel, fiber, water provision and purification, etc.) ecosystems must be sustainably managed. This will require a globally comprehensive and detailed understanding of the distribution of ecosystems on Earth. While there have been several attempts to partition the planet into large ecologically meaningful areas (ecoregions), a high spatial resolution map of Earth's terrestrial ecosystems at the on-the-ground occurrences (patch) level has heretofore been lacking. A new, high resolution (250 m) map of data-derived World Terrestrial Ecosystems is characterized, and its utility for assessing policy-mandated ecosystem conservation targets is described.

Evidence-based approaches to sustainability challenges must draw on knowledge from the environment, development and health communities. To be practicable, this requires an approach to evidence that is broader and less hierarchical than the standards often applied within disciplines.

Background. With climate change, adverse human health effects caused by heat exposure are of increasing public health concern. Forests provide beneficial ecosystem services for human health, including local cooling. Few studies have assessed the relationship between deforestation and heat-related health effects in tropical, rural populations. We sought to determine whether deforested compared to forested landscapes are associated with increased physiological heat strain in a rural, tropical environment. Methods. We analyzed data from 363 healthy adult participants from ten villages who participated in a two-by-two factorial, randomized study in East Kalimantan, Indonesia from 10/1/17 to 11/6/17. Using simple randomization, field staff allocated participants equally to different conditions to conduct a 90 min outdoor activity, representative of typical work. Core body temperature (CBT) was estimated at each minute during the activity using a validated algorithm from baseline oral temperatures and sequential heart rate data, measured using chest band monitors. We used linear regression models, clustered by village and with a sandwich variance estimator, to assess the association between deforested versus forested conditions and the number of minutes each participant spent above an estimated CBT threshold of 38.5 °C. Results. Compared to those in the forested condition (n = 172), participants in the deforested condition (n = 159) spent an average of 3.08 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.57, 5.60) additional minutes with an estimated CBT exceeding 38.5 °C, after adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, and experiment start time, with a larger difference among those who began the experiment after 12 noon (5.17 [95% CI 2.20, 8.15]). Conclusions. In this experimental study in a tropical, rural setting, activity in a deforested versus a forested setting was associated with increased objectively measured heat strain. Longer durations of hyperthermia can increase the risk of serious health outcomes. Land use decisions should consider the implications of deforestation on local heat exposure and health as well as on forest services, including carbon storage functions that impact climate change mitigation.

Over half of the world's tropical forests are used for timber extraction by selective logging. Even though these forests are degraded to a variable degree, they are still important for tropical forest biodiversity. It is not yet known how biodiversity is impacted during and immediately after logging, and how fast it recovers. Here, we use ecoacoustics, and specifically the recording and analysis of soundscape dawn time series, to monitor the immediate impact and early recovery of biodiversity after selective logging. We describe the results of capturing a dawn time series of soundscapes in a Bornean tropical lowland forest before, during, and after selective logging. Soundscape saturation, which is correlated with the number of different calls that make up the soundscape, dropped significantly immediately after selective logging was carried out. The reduced saturation was mostly due to the loss of bird vocalizations, whereas insects did not seem to be impacted. In a space-for-time recording from the same area, soundscape saturation during the equivalent time of day recovered after one year, however began to drop again in years 2 and 3 after logging. Our results are suggestive of a strong effect of logging and seasonality on tropical forest soundscapes. Being able to track biodiversity changes and recovery over time in tropical forests managed for timber production can ultimately improve our odds of avoiding more species extinctions, by providing evidence-based recommendations on how much time forests need to recover biodiversity.

The effect of tropical deforestation on heat exposure and subsequent human health outcomes remains understudied, especially among an increasingly vulnerable population – healthy, adult subsistence workers in rural industrializing tropical countries. We report on a field experiment that estimated the short-term effects of heat exposure from deforestation on cognitive performance. We randomly assigned rural, adult subsistence workers in East Kalimantan, Indonesia to deforested or forested settings, and standard or high incentive piece rate payments. Participants worked in forested or deforested settings for up to 90 minutes, where ambient and black globe temperatures in deforested areas were, on average, 2.1°C and 10°C higher. After completing the experimental task, participants were asked to take a validated general cognitive assessment test (CAT) and episodic memory test (EMT). We found participants in deforested settings had statistically significant lower scores on both CAT and EMT. Effects were largely driven by heat effects on male participants and those working after noon. Our results highlight how heat exposure from tropical deforestation may lead to declines in cognitive performance even in favorable work settings. Policymakers should consider how land use planning that takes into account the cooling services of trees can play a significant role in increasing resilience to heat from climate and land use change in the tropics.

The authors regret that two co-authors were unintentionally missed in the previous paper. We have added the two co-authors to recognize their contribution to the validation data - the biophysical field observations of land conditions. The error does not change the science of this study. Zunyi Xie, Stuart R. Phinn, Edward T. Game, David J. Pannell, Richard J. Hobbs, Peter R. Briggs, Terrence S. Beutel, Christopher Holloway, Eve McDonald-MaddenKey Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia Remote Sensing Research Centre, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia The Nature Conservancy, Brisbane, QLD 4101, Australia School of Agriculture and Environment, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, Australia School of Biological Science, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, Australia CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, Parkhurst, Brisbane, QLD 4701, Australia Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, Dutton Park, Brisbane, QLD 4102, Australia The authors would like to apologise for any inconvenience caused.

Representation of ecosystems in protected area networks and conservation strategies is a core principle of global conservation priority setting approaches and a commitment in Aichi Target 11 of the Convention on Biological Diversity. The 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) explicitly call for the conservation of terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems. Accurate ecosystem distribution maps are required to assess representation of ecosystems in protected areas, but standardized, high spatial resolution, and globally comprehensive ecosystem maps have heretofore been lacking. While macroscale global ecoregions maps have been used in global conservation priority setting exercises, they do not identify distinct localized ecosystems at the occurrence (patch) level, and instead describe large ecologically meaningful areas within which additional conservation planning and management are necessary. We describe a new set of maps of globally consistent climate regions and ecosystems at a much finer spatial resolution (250 m) than existing ecological regionalizations. We then describe a global gap analysis of the representation of these ecosystems in protected areas. The new map of terrestrial World Ecosystems was derived from the objective development and integration of 1) global temperature domains, 2) global moisture domains, 3) global landforms, and 4) 2015 global vegetation and land use. These new terrestrial World Ecosystems do not include either freshwater or marine ecosystems, but analog products for the freshwater and marine domains are in development. A total of 431 World Ecosystems were identified, and of these a total of 278 units were natural or semi-natural vegetation/environment combinations, including different kinds of forestlands, shrublands, grasslands, bare areas, and ice/snow regions. The remaining classes were different kinds of croplands and settlements. Of the 278 natural and semi-natural classes, 9 were not represented in global protected areas with a strict biodiversity conservation management objective (IUCN management categories I-IV), and an additional 206 were less than 8.5% protected (half way to the 17% Aichi Target 11 goal). Forty four classes were between 8.5% and 17% protected (more than half way towards the Aichi 17% target), and only 19 classes exceeded the 17% Aichi target. However, when all protected areas (IUCN management categories I-VI plus protected areas with no IUCN designation) were included in a separate global gap analysis, representation of ecosystems increases substantially, with a third of the ecosystems exceeding the 17% Aichi target, and another third between 8.5% and 17%. The overall protection (representation) of global ecosystems in protected areas is considerably less when assessed using only strictly conserved protected areas, and more if all protected areas are included in the analysis. Protected area effectiveness should be included in further evaluations of global ecosystem protection. The ecosystems with the highest representation in protected areas were often bare or sparsely vegetated and found in inhospitable environments (e.g. cold mountains, deserts), and the eight most protected ecosystems were all snow and ice ecosystems. In addition to the global gap analysis of World Ecosystems in protected areas, we report on the representation results for the ecosystems in each biogeographic realm (Neotropical, Nearctic, Afrotropical, Palearctic, Indomalayan, Australasian, and Oceania).

Raising funds is critical for conserving biodiversity and hence so is scrutinizing emerging financial mechanisms that may help achieve this goal. Anecdotal evidence indicates crowdfunding is being used to support activities needed for biodiversity conservation, yet its magnitude and allocation remain largely unknown. To help address this knowledge gap, we conducted a global analysis based on conservation-focused projects extracted from crowdfunding platforms. For each project, we determined the funds raised, date, country of implementation, proponent characteristics, activity type, biodiversity realm, and target taxa. We identified 72 relevant platforms and 577 conservation-focused projects that raised $4,790,634 since 2009. Although proponents were based in 38 countries, projects were delivered across 80 countries, indicating a potential mechanism of resource mobilization. Proponents were affiliated with nongovernmental organizations (35%) or universities (30%) or were freelancers (26%). Most projects were for research (40%), persuasion (31%), and on-the-ground actions (21%). Projects were more focused on species (57.7%) and terrestrial ecosystems (20.3%), and less focused on marine (8.8%) and freshwater ecosystems (3.6%). Projects focused on 208 species, including a disproportionate number of threatened birds and mammals. Crowdfunding for biodiversity conservation is a global phenomenon and there is potential for expansion, despite possible pitfalls (e.g., uncertainty about effectiveness). Opportunities to advance conservation through crowdfunding arise from its capacity to mobilize funds spatially and increase steadily over time, inclusion of overlooked species, adoption by multiple actors, and funding of activities beyond research. Our findings pave the way for further research on key questions, such as campaign success rates, effectiveness of conservation actions, and drivers of crowdfunding adoption. Even though crowdfunding capital raised has been modest relative to other conservation-finance mechanisms, its contribution goes beyond funding research and providing capital. Embraced with due care, crowdfunding could become an important financial mechanism for biodiversity conservation.

[Excerpt] We thank Lehtomaki et al. (2019) for widening the discussion of the Plan-S open-access initiative (https://www.coalition-s.org) in their response to Burgman et al. (2018). They provide useful links to Plan-S documentation. They are disappointed by the focus of our position, which we took to clarify a point central to the discussion of open access that we believe has received too little attention,namely, equity of access to publication.

Protected areas are the primary management tool for conserving ecosystems, yet their intended outcomes may often be compromised by poaching. Consequently, many protected areas are ineffective ‘paper parks’ that contribute little towards conserving ecosystems. Poaching can be prevented through enforcement and engaging with community members so they support protected areas. It is not clear how much needs to be spent on enforcement and engagement to ensure they are frequent enough to be effective at conserving biodiversity. We develop models of enforcement against illegal fishing in marine protected areas. We apply the models to data on fishing rates and fish biomass from a marine protected area in Raja Ampat, Indonesia and explore how frequent enforcement patrols need to be to achieve targets for coral reef fish biomass. Achieving pristine levels of reef fish biomass required almost year-round enforcement of the protected area. Surveillance of the protected area may also be enhanced if local fishers who support the reserve report on poaching. The opportunity for local fishing boats to participate in surveillance was too small for it to have much benefit for total reef fish biomass, which increases slowly. However, specific functional groups of fish have much higher population growth rates and their biomass was predicted to increase markedly with community surveillance. We conclude that budgets for park management must balance the cost of conducting frequent patrols against supporting alternative activities, like education to build community support. Optimized budgets will be much more likely to achieve ecological targets for recovering fish biomasses and will contribute to fiscal sustainability of protected areas.

Recording of forest soundscapes can help monitor animal biodiversity for conservation

An opportunity represents an advantageous combination of circumstances that allows goals to be achieved. We reviewed the nature of opportunity and how it manifests in different subsystems (e.g., biophysical, social, political, economic) as conceptualized in other bodies of literature, including behavior, adoption, entrepreneur, public policy, and resilience literature. We then developed a multidisciplinary conceptualization of conservation opportunity. We identified 3 types of conservation opportunity: potential, actors remove barriers to problem solving by identifying the capabilities within the system that can be manipulated to create support for conservation action; traction, actors identify windows of opportunity that arise from exogenous shocks, events, or changes that remove barriers to solving problems; and existing, everything is in place for conservation action (i.e., no barriers exist) and an actor takes advantage of the existing circumstances to solve problems. Different leverage points characterize each type of opportunity. Thus, unique stages of opportunity identification or creation and exploitation exist: characterizing the system and defining problems; identifying potential solutions; assessing the feasibility of solutions; identifying or creating opportunities; and taking advantage of opportunities. These stages can be undertaken independently or as part of a situational analysis and typically comprise the first stage, but they can also be conducted iteratively throughout a conservation planning process. Four types of entrepreneur can be identified (business, policy, social, and conservation), each possessing attributes that enable them to identify or create opportunities and take advantage of them. We examined how different types of conservation opportunity manifest in a social–ecological system (the Great Barrier Reef) and how they can be taken advantage of. Our multidisciplinary conceptualization of conservation opportunity strengthens and legitimizes the concept.

Open oceans are one of the least protected, least studied and most inadequately managed ecosystems on Earth. Three themes were investigated that differentiate the open ocean (areas beyond national jurisdiction and deep area within exclusive economic zones) from other realms and must be considered when developing planning and management options: ecosystem interactions, especially between benthic and pelagic systems; potential effects of human activities in open oceans on ecological linkages; and policy context and options. A number of key ecological factors differentiate open oceans from coastal systems for planners and managers: (1) many species are widely distributed and, especially for those at higher trophic levels, wide ranging; (2) the sizes and boundaries of biogeographical domains (patterns of co-occurrence of species, habitats and ecosystem processes) vary significantly by depth; (3) habitat types exhibit a wide range of stabilities, from ephemeral (e.g., surface frontal systems) to hyper-stable (e.g., deep sea); and (4) vertical and horizontal linkages are prevalent. Together, these ecological attributes point to interconnectedness between open ocean habitats across large spatial scales. Indeed, human activities - especially fishing, shipping, and potentially deep-sea mining and oil and gas extraction - have effects far beyond the parts of the ocean in which they operate. While managing open oceans in an integrated fashion will be challenging, the ecological characteristics of the system demand it. A promising avenue forward is to integrate aspects of marine spatial planning (MSP), systematic conservation planning (SCP), and adaptive management. These three approaches to planning and management need to be integrated to meet the unique needs of open ocean systems, with MSP providing the means to meet a diversity of stakeholder needs, SCP providing the structured process to determine and prioritise those needs and appropriate responses, and adaptive management providing rigorous monitoring and evaluation to determine whether actions or their modifications meet both ecological and defined stakeholder needs. The flexibility of MSP will be enhanced by the systematic approach of SCP, while the rigorous monitoring of adaptive management will enable continued improvement as new information becomes available and further experience is gained.

Environmental conservation activities must continue to become more efficient and effective, especially in Africa where development and population growth pressures continue to escalate. Recently, prioritization of conservation resources has focused on explicitly incorporating the economic costs of conservation along with better defining the outcomes of these expenditures. We demonstrate how new global and continental data that spans social, economic, and ecological sectors creates an opportunity to incorporate return-on-investment (ROI) principles into conservation priority setting for Africa. We suggest that combining conservation priorities that factor in biodiversity value, habitat quality, and conservation management investments across terrestrial, freshwater, and coastal marine environments provides a new lens for setting global conservation priorities. Using this approach we identified seven regions capturing interior and coastal resources that also have high ROI values that support further investment. We illustrate how spatially explicit, yet flexible ROI analysis can help to better address uncertainty, risk, and opportunities for conservation, while making values that guide prioritization more transparent. In one case the results of this prioritization process were used to support new conservation investments. Acknowledging a clear research need to improve cost information, we propose that adopting a flexible ROI framework to set conservation priorities in Africa has multiple potential benefits.

Globally, the area of agricultural land is shrinking in part due to environmental degradation. Acquisition and restoration of degraded lands no longer used for agriculture may present a major conservation opportunity with minimal social and political opposition. The ability to efficiently and accurately identify these lands from regional to global scales will aid conservation management, ultimately enhancing the global prospects of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Remote Sensing provides a potential tool to identify areas where surface property changes can be mapped and linked with land degradation. In this study, we begin to tackle a small section of this challenge by presenting novel approach to mapping changes in vegetation cover amounts at the pixel level (30 m), using Google Earth Engine (GEE). We illustrate our approach across large-scale rangelands in Queensland Australia, using three decades of Landsat satellite imagery (1988–2017) along with field observations of land condition scores for validation. The approach used an existing method for dynamic reference cover to remove the rainfall variability and focused on the human management effects on the vegetation cover changes. Results showed the identified vegetation cover changes could be categorized into five classes of decrease, increase or stable cover compared with a set reference level, which was obtained from locations of the most persistent ground cover across all dry years. In total, vegetation cover decrease was observed in 20% of our study area, with similar portion of lands recovering and the rest (~60%) staying stable. The lands with decrease in vegetation cover, covering a considerable area of ~2 × 105 km2, exhibited a markedly reduced resilience to droughts. The accuracy assessment yielded an overall classification accuracy of 82.6% (±3.32 standard error) with 75.0% (±5.16%) and 70.0% (±4.13%) producer's and user's accuracy for areas experiencing a significant decrease in vegetation cover, respectively. Identifying areas of degraded land will require multiple stages of spatial data analysis and this work provided the first stage for identifying vegetation cover changes in large-scale rangeland environment, and provides a platform for future research and development to identify degraded lands and their utility for achieving conservation endeavours.

Most conservation challenges are complex and possess all the characteristics of so called “wicked” problems. Despite widespread recognition of this complexity conservationists possess a legacy of institutional structures, tools and practices better suited to simpler systems. We highlight two specific challenges posed by this mismatch: the difficulty of adaptive management where success is ambiguous and the tension between “best practice” and creativity. Drawing on research in other disciplines (including psychology, information systems, business management, and military strategy) we suggest practices that conservation could consider to better respond to complexity. These practices include, defining clear objectives, the use of scenarios, emphasis on pattern analysis, and ensuring greater scope for creative and decentralized decision making. To help illustrate these challenges and solutions, we point to parallels between conservation and military operations.

A vast number of prioritization schemes have been developed to help conservation navigate tough decisions about the allocation of finite resources. However, the application of quantitative approaches to setting priorities in conservation frequently includes mistakes that can undermine their authors’ intention to be more rigorous and scientific in the way priorities are established and resources allocated. Drawing on well-established principles of decision science, we highlight 6 mistakes commonly associated with setting priorities for conservation: not acknowledging conservation plans are prioritizations; trying to solve an ill-defined problem; not prioritizing actions; arbitrariness; hidden value judgments; and not acknowledging risk of failure. We explain these mistakes and offer a path to help conservation planners avoid making the same mistakes in future prioritizations. Seis Errores Comunes en la Definición de Prioridades de Conservación Resumen Se ha desarrollado un vasto número de esquemas de priorización para ayudar a que la conservación navegue entre decisiones difíciles en cuanto a la asignación de recursos finitos. Sin embargo, la aplicación de métodos cuantitativos para la definición de prioridades en la conservación frecuentemente incluye errores que pueden socavar la intención de sus autores de ser más rigurosos y científicos en la manera en que se establecen las prioridades y se asignan los recursos. Con base en los bien establecidos principios de la ciencia de la decisión, resaltamos seis errores comúnmente asociados con la definición de prioridades para la conservación: no reconocer que los planes de conservación son priorizaciones; tratar de resolver un problema mal definido; no priorizar acciones; arbitrariedad; juicios de valor ocultos y no reconocer el riesgo de fracasar. Explicamos estos errores y ofrecemos un camino para que planificadores de la conservación no cometan los mismos errores en priorizaciones futuras.

At the UN Conference on Sustainable Development in Rio in June 2012, world leaders committed to the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction (the high seas). Our analysis of gaps in high seas management indicates that a paradigm shift to a more systematic approach will be needed to safeguard high seas biodiversity from mounting threats. Experience from terrestrial and coastal areas indicates that a systematic approach to conservation planning and management can help to maintain ecosystem health and productivity while enabling sustainable use. Our analysis further demonstrates that the current legal regime on the high seas is insufficient to realize these objectives: management institutions have neither an adequate mandate for integrated planning nor the ability to effectively coordinate across multiple management regimes. We identify key elements for future high seas management and posit that a two-pronged approach is most promising: the development of an improved global legal regime that incorporates systematic planning as well as the expansion of existing and new regional agreements and mandates. This combined approach is most likely to achieve the required ecosystem-based, integrated and science-based management that world leaders at Rio acknowledged should underpin ocean management.

There is global concern about tropical forest degradation, in part, because of the associated loss of biodiversity. Communities and indigenous people play a fundamental role in tropical forest management and are often efficient at preventing forest degradation. However, monitoring changes in biodiversity due to degradation, especially at a scale appropriate to local tropical forest management, is plagued by difficulties, including the need for expert training, inconsistencies across observers, and lack of baseline or reference data. We used a new biodiversity remote-sensing technology, the recording of soundscapes, to test whether the acoustic saturation of a tropical forest in Papua New Guinea decreases as land-use intensity by the communities that manage the forest increases. We sampled soundscapes continuously for 24 hours at 34 sites in different land-use zones of 3 communities. Land-use zones where forest cover was fully retained had significantly higher soundscape saturation during peak acoustic activity times (i.e., dawn and dusk chorus) compared with land-use types with fragmented forest cover. We conclude that, in Papua New Guinea, the relatively simple measure of soundscape saturation may provide a cheap, objective, reproducible, and effective tool for monitoring tropical forest deviation from an intact state, particularly if it is used to detect the presence of intact dawn and dusk choruses.

Tropical coastal and marine ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to ocean warming, ocean acidification, and sea-level rise. Yet these projected climate and ocean change impacts are rarely considered in conservation planning due to the lack of guidance on how existing climate and ocean change models, tools, and data can be applied. Here, we address this gap by describing how conservation planning can use available tools and data for assessing the vulnerability of tropical marine ecosystems to key climate threats. Additionally, we identify limitations of existing tools and provide recommendations for future research to improve integration of climate and ocean change information and conservation planning. Such information is critical for developing a conservation response that adequately protects these ecosystems and dependent coastal communities in the face of climate and ocean change.

The outcomes of systematic conservation planning (process of assessing, implementing, and managing conservation areas) are rarely reported or measured formally. A lack of consistent or rigorous evaluation in conservation planning has fueled debate about the extent to which conservation assessment (identification, design, and prioritization of potential conservation areas) ultimately influences actions on the ground. We interviewed staff members of a nongovernmental organization, who were involved in 5 ecoregional assessments across North and South America and the Asia-Pacific region. We conducted 17 semistructured interviews with open and closed questions about the perceived purpose, outputs, and outcomes of the ecoregional assessments in which respondents were involved. Using qualitative data collected from those interviews, we investigated the types and frequency of benefits perceived to have emerged from the ecoregional assessments and explored factors that might facilitate or constrain the flow of benefits. Some benefits reflected the intended purpose of ecoregional assessments. Other benefits included improvements in social interactions, attitudes, and institutional knowledge. Our results suggest the latter types of benefits enable ultimate benefits of assessments, such as guiding investments by institutional partners. Our results also showed a clear divergence between the respondents' expectations and perceived outcomes of implementation of conservation actions arising from ecoregional assessments. Our findings suggest the need for both a broader perspective on the contribution of assessments to planning goals and further evaluation of conservation assessments.

Zonae Cogito is a free software package that couples Marxan with a MapWindow GIS interface to provide practitioners with an easy to use GIS to support Marxan analysis. In addition to providing a method for visualizing Marxan output, Zonae Cogito extends the basic Marxan functionality to better support an iterative and interactive design process. Zonae Cogito introduces the ability to modify and refine networks identified in Marxan, and extends the basic reporting functionality of Marxan beyond features directly considered in the analysis. Zonae Cogito also introduces new tools that allow spatial flexibility in the proposed protected area networks to be more effectively leveraged during the design process, and facilitates better information flow through interoperability with other software packages.

The Convention on Biological Diversity requires that member nations establish protected area networks that are representative of the country's biodiversity. The identification of priority sites to achieve outstanding representation targets is typically accomplished through formal conservation assessments. However, representation in conservation assessments or gap analyses has largely been interpreted based on a static view of biodiversity. In a rapidly changing climate, the speed of changes in biodiversity distribution and abundance is causing us to rethink the viability of this approach. Here we describe three explicit strategies for climate change adaptation as part of national conservation assessments: conserving the geophysical stage, identifying and protecting climate refugia, and promoting cross-environment connectivity. We demonstrate how these three approaches were integrated into a national terrestrial conservation assessment for Papua New Guinea, one of the most biodiverse countries on earth. Protected areas identified based on representing geophysical diversity were able to capture over 90% of the diversity in vegetation communities, suggesting they could help protect representative biodiversity regardless of changes in the distribution of species and communities. By including climate change refugia as part of the national conservation assessment, it was possible to substantially reduce the amount of environmental change expected to be experienced within protected areas, without increasing the overall cost of the protected area network. Explicitly considering environmental heterogeneity between adjacent areas resulted in protected area networks with over 40% more internal environmental connectivity. These three climate change adaptation strategies represent defensible ways to guide national conservation priority given the uncertainty that currently exists in our ability to predict climate changes and their impacts. Importantly, they are also consistent with data and expertise typically available during national conservation assessments, including in developing nations. This means that in the vast majority of countries, these strategies could be implemented immediately.

Aim Using a probabilistic modelling framework, we aimed to incorporate landscape spatiotemporal dynamics into reserve design. We employed a spatially explicit stochastic model, which integrates both hydrological and biological processes, to simulate the wetland’s biological succession. Location Pantanal wetland (with 140,000 km2) between Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay. Methods We used the reserve design software Marxan to optimize the current and future representation (up to 50 years) of 20% of five plant communities with maximum reliability (i.e. smallest uncertainty). The Kappa statistic was used to compare selection frequencies of individual sites through a set of planning timeframes (5, 17, 25 and 50 years) and the likely pattern of biological succession over these periods. Results Solutions based on static vegetation distributions were significantly dissimilar from solutions based on the expected modelled changes resulting from the flood disturbance and succession dynamics. Increasing the required reliability of biodiversity outcomes resulted in more expensive reserve solutions. We demonstrated the flexibility of probabilistic decision-making methods to illuminate the trade-offs between reliability and efficiency of site selection. Main conclusions Considering the importance of habitat heterogeneity to the principles and practice of systematic conservation planning, it is notable that landscape dynamics have not been a central theme in conservation planning. In the case of the Pantanal hydrosere, acknowledging and planning for temporal dynamics required an ability to model succession and define acceptable levels of outcome reliability, but ultimately improved the long-term Adequacy of resulting reserve networks.

Conservation decisions often involve uncertainty about the underlying ecological and social systems and, in particular, how these systems will respond to the implementation of conservation actions. Future decision making can be improved by learning more about these systems and their responses to past conservation actions, by evaluating the performance of the actions being undertaken. This is a "passive" adaptive management approach to conservation. However, the purposeful and experimental application of different conservation actions can yield greater knowledge through more rapid and targeted learning. This is an "active" adaptive management approach to conservation. Improving future management decisions through learning should be viewed as essential to all conservation plans. Unfortunately, the incorporation of explicit learning processes within the greater framework of conservation planning processes is rare. Here, we provide an overview of factors to consider when attempting the implementation of an adaptive approach to conservation planning, along with ideas for future research.