629 results on '"Duncan, K"'
Search Results
2. macroH2A2 antagonizes epigenetic programs of stemness in glioblastoma
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Ana Nikolic, Francesca Maule, Anna Bobyn, Katrina Ellestad, Seungil Paik, Sajid A. Marhon, Parinaz Mehdipour, Xueqing Lun, Huey-Miin Chen, Claire Mallard, Alexander J. Hay, Michael J. Johnston, Christopher J. Gafuik, Franz J. Zemp, Yaoqing Shen, Nicoletta Ninkovic, Katalin Osz, Elodie Labit, N. Daniel Berger, Duncan K. Brownsey, John J. Kelly, Jeff Biernaskie, Peter B. Dirks, Darren J. Derksen, Steven J. M. Jones, Donna L. Senger, Jennifer A. Chan, Douglas J. Mahoney, Daniel D. De Carvalho, and Marco Gallo
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Multidisciplinary ,General Physics and Astronomy ,General Chemistry ,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology - Abstract
Self-renewal is a crucial property of glioblastoma cells that is enabled by the choreographed functions of chromatin regulators and transcription factors. Identifying targetable epigenetic mechanisms of self-renewal could therefore represent an important step toward developing effective treatments for this universally lethal cancer. Here we uncover an epigenetic axis of self-renewal mediated by the histone variant macroH2A2. With omics and functional assays deploying patient-derived in vitro and in vivo models, we show that macroH2A2 shapes chromatin accessibility at enhancer elements to antagonize transcriptional programs of self-renewal. macroH2A2 also sensitizes cells to small molecule-mediated cell death via activation of a viral mimicry response. Consistent with these results, our analyses of clinical cohorts indicate that high transcriptional levels of this histone variant are associated with better prognosis of high-grade glioma patients. Our results reveal a targetable epigenetic mechanism of self-renewal controlled by macroH2A2 and suggest additional treatment approaches for glioblastoma patients.
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- 2023
3. Single B cell transcriptomics identifies multiple isotypes of broadly neutralizing antibodies against flaviviruses
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Jay Lubow, Lisa M. Levoir, Duncan K. Ralph, Laura Belmont, Maya Contreras, Catiana H. Cartwright-Acar, Caroline Kikawa, Shruthi Kannan, Edgar Davidson, Benjamin J. Doranz, Veronica Duran, David ER. Sanchez, Ana M. Sanz, Fernando Rosso, Shirit Einav, Frederick A. Matsen, and Leslie Goo
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Article - Abstract
SUMMARYSequential dengue virus (DENV) infections often generate neutralizing antibodies against all four DENV serotypes and sometimes, Zika virus. Characterizing cross-flavivirus broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) responses can inform countermeasure strategies that avoid infection enhancement associated with non-neutralizing antibodies. Here, we used single cell transcriptomics to mine the bnAb repertoire following secondary DENV infection. We identified several new bnAbs with comparable or superior breadth and potency to known bnAbs, and with distinct recognition determinants. Unlike all known flavivirus bnAbs, which are IgG1, one newly identified cross-flavivirus bnAb (F25.S02) was derived from IgA1. Both IgG1 and IgA1 versions of F25.S02 and known bnAbs displayed neutralizing activity, but only IgG1 enhanced infection in monocytes expressing IgG and IgA Fc receptors. Moreover, IgG-mediated enhancement of infection was inhibited by IgA1 versions of bnAbs. We demonstrate a role for IgA in flavivirus infection and immunity with implications for vaccine and therapeutic strategies.
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- 2023
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4. Quantification of Exciton Fine Structure Splitting in a Two-Dimensional Perovskite Compound
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Katarzyna Posmyk, Natalia Zawadzka, Mateusz Dyksik, Alessandro Surrente, Duncan K. Maude, Tomasz Kazimierczuk, Adam Babiński, Maciej R. Molas, Watcharaphol Paritmongkol, Mirosław Mączka, William A. Tisdale, Paulina Płochocka, Michał Baranowski, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Physics [Warsaw] (FUW), University of Warsaw (UW), Laboratoire national des champs magnétiques intenses - Toulouse (LNCMI-T), Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Toulouse (INSA Toulouse), Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN), and ANR-17-EURE-0009,NanoX,Science et Ingénierie à l'Echelle Nano(2017)
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high magnetic field ,Energy ,Metal halide perovskites, high magnetic field, 2D perovskites ,Crystal structure ,Polarization ,Magnetic properties ,Excitons ,General Materials Science ,[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-CHEM-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Chemical Physics [physics.chem-ph] ,Metal halide perovskites ,2D perovskites ,Physical and Theoretical Chemistry - Abstract
International audience; Applications of two-dimensional (2D) perovskites have significantly outpaced the understanding of many fundamental aspects of their photophysics. The optical response of 2D lead halide perovskites is dominated by strongly bound excitonic states. However, a comprehensive experimental verification of the exciton fine structure splitting and associated transition symmetries remains elusive. Here we employ low temperature magneto-optical spectroscopy to reveal the exciton fine structure of (PEA)2PbI4 (here PEA is phenylethylammonium) single crystals. We observe two orthogonally polarized bright in-plane free exciton (FX) states, both accompanied by a manifold of phonon-dressed states that preserve the polarization of the corresponding FX state. Introducing a magnetic field perpendicular to the 2D plane, we resolve the lowest energy dark exciton state, which although theoretically predicted, has systematically escaped experimental observation (in Faraday configuration) until now. These results corroborate standard multiband, effective-mass theories for the exciton fine structure in 2D perovskites and provide valuable quantification of the fine structure splitting in (PEA)2PbI4.
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- 2022
5. Understanding the Constraints in Maximum Entropy Methods for Modeling and Inference
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Amos Golan and Duncan K. Foley
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Computational Theory and Mathematics ,Artificial Intelligence ,Applied Mathematics ,Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition ,Software - Abstract
The principle of maximum entropy, developed more than six decades ago, provides a systematic approach to modeling inference, and data analysis grounded in the principles of information theory, Bayesian probability and constrained optimization. Since its formulation, criticisms about the consistency of that method and the role of constraints have been raised. Among these, the chief criticism is that maximum entropy does not satisfy the principle of causation, or similarly, that maximum entropy updating is inconsistent due to an inadequate representation of causal information. We show that these criticisms rest on misunderstanding and misapplication of the way constraints have to be specified within the maximum entropy method. Correction of these problems eliminates the seeming paradoxes and inconsistencies critics claim to have detected. We demonstrate that properly formulated maximum entropy models satisfy the principle of causation.
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- 2022
6. A vinylogous Norrish reaction as a strategy for light-mediated ring expansion
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Evgueni Gorobets, James W. Papatzimas, Jorge Dourado, Goonay Yousefalizadeh, JinGyu Lee, Duncan K. Brownsey, Kevin Stamplecoskie, Rebecca Davis, and Darren J. Derksen
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Materials Chemistry ,Metals and Alloys ,Ceramics and Composites ,General Chemistry ,Catalysis ,Surfaces, Coatings and Films ,Electronic, Optical and Magnetic Materials - Abstract
The reactions of bicyclic divinyl ketones display wavelength-dependent changes in product formation. UV irradiation results in the formation of competitive [6,3,5] and [7,3,5] tricyclic unsaturated ketones that subsequently undergo ring expansion and reaction with a range of nucleophiles. DFT calculations and transient absorption experiments were completed that are consistent with a vinylogous Type II Norrish pathway.
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- 2022
7. Spectrum and pulse profile formation in strong-field X-ray pulsars
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Galloway, Duncan K.
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I present the results of an analytic and modelling study of X-ray pulsar emission. Satellite X-ray observations of the binary pulsars GX 1+4 and RX J0812.4-3114 made using the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) and the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) aboard the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO) were analysed to quantify source variations with time and pulse phase. A numerical model simulating X-ray emission from pulsars in terms of Compton scattering of photons within a neutron star accretion column has been developed to test the consistency of the analysis results and to further investigate the spectral and pulse profile formation. Mean Proportional Counter Array (PCA) spectra of both pulsars over the range 2-40 keV are adequately fitted with a Comptonization model, with blackbody source spectrum To1-1.3 keV, plasma temperature Te 6-10 keV, and optical depth T P..- 2-6. The source spectrum temperature is consistent with an origin at the neutron star polar cap, with Compton scattering taking place primarily in the hot plasma of the accretion column. Both the fitted optical depth and plasma temperature vary significantly with the source flux. The wide range of source luminosity spanned by archival observations of GX 1+4 offers evidence for two distinct spectral states above and below Lx1.4 x 10 erg s' (2-20 keV, assuming a source distance of 10 kpc). GX 1+4 additionally exhibits dramatic hourly variations in neutral column density nHindicative of density variations in the stellar wind from the giant companion. Pulse profiles from GX 1+4 vary dramatically over timescales as short as 6 h. Low-order Fourier decomposition of pulse profiles in the 20-50 keV band from BATSE monitoring of the source, in addition to the pulse profiles observed by RXTE over a broader energy range have been used to investigate the relationship between source flux and profile asymmetry suggested on the basis of previously published profiles. The asymmetry of the pulse profiles (as measured by the asymmetry parameter a, Greenhill et al., 1998) exhibits large variation which decreases as the flux increases. No significant relationship is suggested by the recent data, although the span in flux is significantly narrower than from historical profiles which cover the 1970s during which the source was consistently very bright. Pulse-phase spectroscopy of RXTE data from GX 1+4 and RX J0812.4-3114 support the interpretation of the sharp dips in the pulse profile as 'eclipses' of the emission region by the accretion column. The dip phase corresponds with the closest approach of the column axis to the line of sight, and the additional optical depth experienced by photons escaping from the column in this direction gives rise to both the decrease in flux and increase in the fitted T measured at this phase. Analysis of the arrival time of individual dips in GX 1+4 provides the first measurement of azimuthal wandering of a neutron star accretion column. The column longitude varies stochastically with standard deviation 2-6° depending on the source luminosity. Measurements of the phase width of the dip both from mean pulse profiles and individual eclipses demonstrates that the dip width is proportional to the flux. The variation is consistent with that expected if the azimuthal extent of the accretion column depends only upon the Keplerian velocity at the inner disc radius, which varies as a consequence of the accretion rate M. A numerical model using a Monte-Carlo approach has been developed to investigate the behaviour of the emission model suggested by the analysis results. The model simulates Comptonization of a source of blackbody photons emitted from the polar cap of a canonical neutron star in a semi-infinite cylindrical accretion column. The mean spectra vary with both inclination angle and magnetic colatitude (the source aspect). For certain ranges of aspect the pulse profiles exhibit dips similar to those observed in GX 1+4 and RX J0812.4-3114, although not as sharp. Pulse phase spectroscopy of the model data confirms the increase in fitted T coincident with the dip. Latitudinal variations in density across the column, suggested as a possible source of profile asymmetry, result in significant asymmetry only if the brightness of the two poles is unequal.
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- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
8. Time-independent Simulations of Steady-State Accretion with Nuclear Burning
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Tse, Kaho, Heger, Alexander, Hirai, Ryosuke, and Galloway, Duncan K.
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High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena (astro-ph.HE) ,FOS: Physical sciences ,Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena - Abstract
We construct a new formulation that allows efficient exploration of steady-state accretion processes onto compact objects. Accretion onto compact objects is a common scenario in astronomy. These systems serve as laboratories to probe the nuclear burning of the accreted matter. Conventional stellar evolution codes have been developed to simulate in detail the nuclear reactions on the compact objects. In order to follow the case of steady burning, however, using these codes can be very expensive as they are designed to follow a time-dependent problem. Here we introduce our new code $\textsc{StarShot}$, which resolves the structure of the compact objects for the case of stable thermonuclear burning, and is able to follow all nuclear species using an adaptive nuclear reaction network and adaptive zoning. Compared to dynamical codes, the governing equations can be reduced to time-independent forms under the assumption of steady-state accretion. We show an application to accreting low mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs) with accretion onto a neutron-star as compact object. The computational efficiency of $\textsc{StarShot}$ allows to to explore the parameter space for stable burning regimes, and can be used to generate initial conditions for time-dependent evolution models., Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures
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- 2023
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9. Decadal-scale trends and variability in Bering Sea ice extent, wind and wave conditions
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Fischer, R., Farrell, S., Duncan, K., and Kuhn, J.
- Abstract
The Bering Sea in winter (October-April) is defined by a seasonal ice cover and stormy seas; average significant wave height (SWH) is 2.7 m, double the May-September average. Every winter, 20 days on average exhibit SWHs larger than 9 m. Our analysis of surface wind and wave conditions suggests enhanced storminess. The past 5 years are among the 6 stormiest in the last 20 years, indicated by an increase of 0.5 m/s/decade in the highest 1% of surface wind speeds and an increase of 0.5 m/decade in the highest 1% of SWHs. Observations also show a trend in Bering Sea ice extent of -30.5 %/decade in March between 2012-2022. This is in stark contrast to the previous three decades when ice extent was relatively stable (+1.7 %/decade). If we were to assume a continuing linear decline in ice extent, current conditions suggest the Central Shelf area (St. Matthew Island) would be ice free in winter by the early 2030s. Since the sea ice and storm seasons overlap, we hypothesize that a decline in sea ice would increase the frequency of high waves over the shelf, severely impacting coastal communities. In September 2022, extratropical cyclone Merbok caused unprecedented wave conditions (SWH > 15 m) over the shelf that were uncharacteristic for the season, resulting in widespread coastal inundation and property damage. This demonstrated the emerging threat storms pose in a future where sea ice is largely absent from the Bering Sea shelf region in winter, when severe storms are common., The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)
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- 2023
- Full Text
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10. Regioselective Synthesis of C3-Hydroxyarylated Pyrazoles
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Leonie O’Sullivan, Ketul V. Patel, Ben C. Rowley, Duncan K. Brownsey, Evgueni Gorobets, Benjamin S. Gelfand, Jeffrey F. Van Humbeck, and Darren J. Derksen
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Molecular Structure ,010405 organic chemistry ,Organic Chemistry ,Pyrazoles ,010402 general chemistry ,01 natural sciences ,0104 chemical sciences - Abstract
Pyrazoles are ubiquitous structures in medicinal chemistry. We report the first regioselective route to C3-hydroxyarylated pyrazoles obtained through reaction of pyrazole
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- 2021
11. A generalized ordinal finite mixture regression model for market segmentation
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Wayne S. DeSarbo, Duncan K. H. Fong, and Yifan Zhang
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Marketing ,Variables ,Computer science ,media_common.quotation_subject ,05 social sciences ,Bayesian probability ,Feature selection ,Regression analysis ,computer.software_genre ,Ordinal regression ,Market segmentation ,0502 economics and business ,Outlier ,050211 marketing ,Segmentation ,Data mining ,computer ,050203 business & management ,media_common - Abstract
Model-based market segmentation analyses often involve an ordinal dependent variable as ordinal responses are frequently collected in marketing research. In the Bayesian segmentation literature, there are models for an interval- or ratio-scaled dependent variable but there is not any general model for an ordinal dependent variable. In this manuscript, the authors propose a new Bayesian procedure to simultaneously perform segmentation and ordinal regression with variable selection within each derived segment. The procedure is robust to outliers and it also provides an option to include concomitant variables that allows the simultaneous profiling of the derived segments. The authors demonstrate that the practice of treating ordinal responses as interval- or ratio-scales to apply existing Bayesian segmentation procedures can lead to very misleading results and conclusions. Through simulation studies, the authors show that the proposed procedure outperforms several benchmark Bayesian segmentation models in parameter recovery, segment retention, and segment membership prediction for such data. Finally, they provide a commercial business customer satisfaction empirical application to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed model.
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- 2021
12. Deep searches for X-ray pulsations from Scorpius X-1 and Cygnus X-2 in support of continuous gravitational wave searches
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Duncan K. Galloway, S. Galaudage, C. Messenger, and K. Wette
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High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena (astro-ph.HE) ,Physics ,010308 nuclear & particles physics ,Gravitational wave ,Astrophysics::High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,FOS: Physical sciences ,Flux ,Proportional counter ,Astronomy and Astrophysics ,Astrophysics ,Parameter space ,01 natural sciences ,Neutron star ,Space and Planetary Science ,0103 physical sciences ,Astrophysics::Solar and Stellar Astrophysics ,Sensitivity (control systems) ,Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,Low Mass ,010303 astronomy & astrophysics ,Astrophysics::Galaxy Astrophysics ,Spin-½ - Abstract
Neutron stars in low mass X-ray binaries are hypothesised to emit continuous gravitational waves that may be detectable by ground-based observatories. The torque balance model predicts that a higher accretion rate produces larger-amplitude gravitational waves, hence low mass X-ray binaries with high X-ray flux are promising targets for gravitational wave searches. The detection of X-ray pulsations would identify the spin frequency of these neutron stars, and thereby improve the sensitivity of continuous gravitational-wave searches by reducing the volume of the search parameter space. We perform a semi-coherent search for pulsations in the two low mass X-ray binaries Scorpius X-1 and Cygnus X-2 using X-ray data from the \textit{ Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer} Proportional Counter Array. We find no clear evidence for pulsations, and obtain upper limits (at $90\%$ confidence) on the fractional pulse amplitude, with the most stringent being $0.034\%$ for Scorpius X-1 and $0.23\%$ for Cygnus X-2. These upper limits improve upon those of Vaughan et al. (1994) by factors of $\sim 8.2$ and $\sim 1.6$ respectively., 10 pages, 11 figures
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- 2021
13. Thickness-Dependent Dark-Bright Exciton Splitting and Phonon Bottleneck in CsPbBr
- Author
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Shuli, Wang, Mateusz, Dyksik, Carola, Lampe, Moritz, Gramlich, Duncan K, Maude, Michał, Baranowski, Alexander S, Urban, Paulina, Plochocka, and Alessandro, Surrente
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The optimized exploitation of perovskite nanocrystals and nanoplatelets as highly efficient light sources requires a detailed understanding of the energy spacing within the exciton manifold. Dark exciton states are particularly relevant because they represent a channel that reduces radiative efficiency. Here, we apply large in-plane magnetic fields to brighten optically inactive states of CsPbBr
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- 2022
14. Transient-optimized real-bogus classification with Bayesian convolutional neural networks - sifting the GOTO candidate stream
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P. T. O'Brien, David Mkrtichian, Kendall Ackley, U. Burhanudin, T. Heikkilä, R. Cutter, Andrew J. Levan, Paul Chote, Benjamin P. Gompertz, Justyn R. Maund, Supachai Awiphan, Y. L. Mong, Klaas Wiersema, E. J. Daw, James McCormac, G. Ramsay, Krzysztof Ulaczyk, S. Tooke, Enric Palle, D. Mata Sánchez, R. Eyles-Ferris, Christopher J. Duffy, T. Killestein, Saran Poshyachinda, Eric Thrane, Seppo Mattila, James Mullaney, S. Williams, E. Rol, Puji Irawati, S. Aukkaravittayapun, L. K. Nuttall, Don Pollacco, Rubina Kotak, Danny Steeghs, Rene P. Breton, Utane Sawangwit, R. L. C. Starling, A. Chrimes, J. D. Lyman, L. Makrygianni, Elizabeth R. Stanway, Mark Kennedy, S. P. Littlefair, P. A. Strøm, Duncan K. Galloway, Martin J. Dyer, and V. S. Dhillon
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Goto ,Test data generation ,Active learning (machine learning) ,Astronomy ,Bayesian probability ,FOS: Physical sciences ,Machine learning ,computer.software_genre ,01 natural sciences ,Convolutional neural network ,photometric [techniques] ,surveys ,0103 physical sciences ,Classifier (linguistics) ,ST/T007184/1 ,data analysis [methods] ,Transient (computer programming) ,010306 general physics ,QA ,010303 astronomy & astrophysics ,Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics (astro-ph.IM) ,STFC ,QC ,Physics ,astro-ph.HE ,High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena (astro-ph.HE) ,business.industry ,RCUK ,Astronomy and Astrophysics ,ST/T003103/1 ,Space and Planetary Science ,Scalability ,Artificial intelligence ,ST/P000495/1 ,business ,Astrophysics - Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics ,Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,computer ,astro-ph.IM - Abstract
Large-scale sky surveys have played a transformative role in our understanding of astrophysical transients, only made possible by increasingly powerful machine learning-based filtering to accurately sift through the vast quantities of incoming data generated. In this paper, we present a new real-bogus classifier based on a Bayesian convolutional neural network that provides nuanced, uncertainty-aware classification of transient candidates in difference imaging, and demonstrate its application to the datastream from the GOTO wide-field optical survey. Not only are candidates assigned a well-calibrated probability of being real, but also an associated confidence that can be used to prioritise human vetting efforts and inform future model optimisation via active learning. To fully realise the potential of this architecture, we present a fully-automated training set generation method which requires no human labelling, incorporating a novel data-driven augmentation method to significantly improve the recovery of faint and nuclear transient sources. We achieve competitive classification accuracy (FPR and FNR both below 1%) compared against classifiers trained with fully human-labelled datasets, whilst being significantly quicker and less labour-intensive to build. This data-driven approach is uniquely scalable to the upcoming challenges and data needs of next-generation transient surveys. We make our data generation and model training codes available to the community., 17 pages, 12 figures, resubmitted to MNRAS following reviewer comments
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- 2021
15. Rapid synthesis of pomalidomide-conjugates for the development of protein degrader libraries
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Darren J. Derksen, Benjamin S. Gelfand, Ben C. Rowley, Duncan K. Brownsey, and Evgueni Gorobets
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Chemistry ,010405 organic chemistry ,medicine ,General Chemistry ,010402 general chemistry ,Pomalidomide ,01 natural sciences ,Combinatorial chemistry ,3. Good health ,0104 chemical sciences ,Conjugate ,medicine.drug - Abstract
Current methods for the preparation of heterobifunctional pomalidomide-conjugates rely on methods that are often low yielding and produce intractable byproducts. Herein we describe our strategy for the reliable and succinct preparation of pomalidomide-linkers which is essential to the formation of these conjugates. We present the preparation of 18 pomalidomide-linkers in high yield compared to current literature methods. Our findings show that secondary amines consistently afford greater yields than their primary counterparts, a trend that we were able to exploit in the synthesis of several new pomalidomide homo-dimers in enhanced yields compared to similar literature syntheses. This trend was further utilised to develop the first one-pot synthesis of JQ1-pomalidomide conjugates in yields up to 62%, providing a method that is suited to rapid preparation of conjugate libraries as is frequently required for the development of new protein degraders., Current methods for the preparation of heterobifunctional pomalidomide-conjugates rely on methods that are often low yielding and produce intractable byproducts. Herein we describe our strategy for the succinct preparation of pomalidomide-linkers.
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- 2021
16. The LOFAR Two-metre Sky Survey
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Shimwell, T. W., Hardcastle, M. J., Tasse, C., Best, P. N., Röttgering, H. J. A., Williams, W. L., Botteon, A., Drabent, A., Mechev, A., Shulevski, A., van Weeren, R. J., Bester, L., Brüggen, M., Brunetti, G., Callingham, J. R., Chyży, K. T., Conway, J. E., Dijkema, T. J., Duncan, K., de Gasperin, F., Hale, C. L., Haverkorn, M., Hugo, B., Jackson, N., Mevius, M., Miley, G. K., Morabito, L. K., Morganti, R., Offringa, A., Oonk, J. B. R., Rafferty, D., Sabater, J., Smith, D. J. B., Schwarz, D. J., Smirnov, O., O’Sullivan, S. P., Vedantham, H., White, G. J., Albert, J. G., Alegre, L., Asabere, B., Bacon, D. J., Bonafede, A., Bonnassieux, E., Brienza, M., Bilicki, M., Bonato, M., Calistro Rivera, G., Cassano, R., Cochrane, R., Croston, J. H., Cuciti, V., Dallacasa, D., Danezi, A., Dettmar, R. J., Di Gennaro, G., Edler, H. W., Enßlin, T. A., Emig, K. L., Franzen, T. M. O., García-Vergara, C., Grange, Y. G., Gürkan, G., Hajduk, M., Heald, G., Heesen, V., Hoang, D. N., Hoeft, M., Horellou, C., Iacobelli, M., Jamrozy, M., Jelić, V., Kondapally, R., Kukreti, P., Kunert-Bajraszewska, M., Magliocchetti, M., Mahatma, V., Małek, K., Mandal, S., Massaro, F., Meyer-Zhao, Z., Mingo, B., Mostert, R. I. J., Nair, D. G., Nakoneczny, S. J., Nikiel-Wroczyński, B., Orrú, E., Pajdosz-Śmierciak, U., Pasini, T., Prandoni, I., van Piggelen, H. E., Rajpurohit, K., Retana-Montenegro, E., Riseley, C. J., Rowlinson, A., Saxena, A., Schrijvers, C., Sweijen, F., Siewert, T. M., Timmerman, R., Vaccari, M., Vink, J., West, J. L., Wołowska, A., Zhang, X., and Zheng, J.
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Astrophysics::Cosmology and Extragalactic Astrophysics - Abstract
In this data release from the ongoing LOw-Frequency ARray (LOFAR) Two-metre Sky Survey we present 120–168 MHz images covering 27% of the northern sky. Our coverage is split into two regions centred at approximately 12h45m +44◦300 and 1h00m +28◦000 and spanning 4178 and 1457 square degrees respectively. The images were derived from 3451 h (7.6 PB) of LOFAR High Band Antenna data which were corrected for the direction-independent instrumental properties as well as direction-dependent ionospheric distortions during extensive, but fully automated, data processing. A catalogue of 4 396 228 radio sources is derived from our total intensity (Stokes I) maps, where the majority of these have never been detected at radio wavelengths before. At 600 resolution, our full bandwidth Stokes I continuum maps with a central frequency of 144 MHz have: a median rms sensitivity of 83 µJy beam−1 ; a flux density scale accuracy of approximately 10%; an astrometric accuracy of 0.200; and we estimate the point-source completeness to be 90% at a peak brightness of 0.8 mJy beam−1 . By creating three 16 MHz bandwidth images across the band we are able to measure the in-band spectral index of many sources, albeit with an error on the derived spectral index of >±0.2 which is a consequence of our flux-density scale accuracy and small fractional bandwidth. Our circular polarisation (Stokes V) 2000 resolution 120–168 MHz continuum images have a median rms sensitivity of 95 µJy beam−1 , and we estimate a Stokes I to Stokes V leakage of 0.056%. Our linear polarisation (Stokes Q and Stokes U) image cubes consist of 480 × 97.6 kHz wide planes and have a median rms sensitivity per plane of 10.8 mJy beam−1 at 40 and 2.2 mJy beam−1 at 2000; we estimate the Stokes I to Stokes Q/U leakage to be approximately 0.2%. Here we characterise and publicly release our Stokes I, Q, U and V images in addition to the calibrated uv-data to facilitate the thorough scientific exploitation of this unique dataset.
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- 2022
17. Detection of millihertz quasi-periodic oscillations in the X-Ray binary 1RXS J180408.9−342058
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Alexander Heger, Kaho Tse, Hung En Hsieh, Duncan K. Galloway, and Yi Chou
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High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena (astro-ph.HE) ,Physics ,010308 nuclear & particles physics ,Oscillation ,Astrophysics::High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,Continuum (design consultancy) ,X-ray binary ,FOS: Physical sciences ,Astronomy and Astrophysics ,Astrophysics ,01 natural sciences ,Luminosity ,Neutron star ,Amplitude ,13. Climate action ,Space and Planetary Science ,Nucleosynthesis ,0103 physical sciences ,Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,010303 astronomy & astrophysics ,Noise (radio) - Abstract
Millihertz quasi-periodic oscillations (mHz QPOs) observed in neutron-star low-mass X-ray binaries (NS LMXBs) are generally explained as marginally stable thermonuclear burning on the neutron star surface. We report the discovery of mHz QPOs in an XMM-Newton observation of the transient 1RXS J180408.9$-$342058, during a regular bursting phase of its 2015 outburst. We found significant periodic signals in the March observation, with frequencies in the range $5-8\,\mathrm{mHz}$, superimposed on a strong $\sim1/f$ power-law noise continuum. Neither the QPO signals nor the power-law noise were present during the April observation, which exhibited a $2.5\times$ higher luminosity and had correspondingly more frequent bursts. When present, the QPO signal power decreases during bursts and disappears afterwards, similar to the behaviour in other sources. 1RXS J180408.9$-$342058 is the eighth source known to date that exhibits such QPOs driven by thermonuclear burning. We examine the range of properties of the QPO signals in different sources. Whereas the observed oscillation profile is similar to that predicted by numerical models, the amplitudes are significantly higher, challenging their explanation as originating from marginally stable burning., 6 pages, 6 figures, 1 table, accepted by MNRAS
- Published
- 2020
18. The efficiency of nuclear burning during thermonuclear (Type I) bursts as a function of accretion rate
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Alexander Heger, A. J. Goodwin, Zac Johnston, Duncan K. Galloway, and Yuri Cavecchi
- Subjects
Nuclear reaction ,Thermonuclear fusion ,Astrophysics::High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,Population ,FOS: Physical sciences ,Astrophysics::Cosmology and Extragalactic Astrophysics ,Astrophysics ,01 natural sciences ,7. Clean energy ,Nucleosynthesis ,0103 physical sciences ,Astrophysics::Solar and Stellar Astrophysics ,education ,010303 astronomy & astrophysics ,Astrophysics::Galaxy Astrophysics ,Spin-½ ,High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena (astro-ph.HE) ,Physics ,education.field_of_study ,Accretion (meteorology) ,010308 nuclear & particles physics ,Astronomy and Astrophysics ,Neutron star ,Space and Planetary Science ,Astrophysics::Earth and Planetary Astrophysics ,Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,Falling (sensation) - Abstract
We measured the thermonuclear burning efficiency as a function of accretion rate for the Type I X-ray bursts of five low-mass X-ray binary systems. We chose sources with measured neutron star spins and a substantial population of bursts from a large observational sample. The general trend for the burst rate is qualitatively the same for all sources; the burst rate first increases with the accretion rate up to a maximum, above which the burst rate declines, despite the increasing accretion rate. At higher accretion rates, when the burst rate decreases, the {\alpha}-value (the ratio of accretion energy and burst energy) increases by up to a factor of 10 above that in the rising burst rate regime. These observations are contrary to the predictions of 1D numerical models, but can be explained as the consequence of a zone of stable burning on the neutron star surface, which expands with increasing accretion rate. The stable burning also "pollutes" the unstable burning layer with ashes, contributing to the change in burst properties measured in the falling burst rate regime. We find that the mass accretion rate at which the burst rate begins to decrease is anti-correlated with the spin of the neutron star. We conclude that the neutron star spin is a key factor, moderating the nuclear burning stability, via the local accretion rate and fuel composition over the star., Comment: Submitted to MNRAS
- Published
- 2020
19. Three Comments on Storm 'The Economics and Politics of Social Democracy: A Reconsideration'
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Joseph Halevi, Thomas Ferguson, Duncan K. Foley, and Peter Kriesler
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Politics ,050208 finance ,Foley ,0502 economics and business ,05 social sciences ,Economic history ,Storm ,Sociology ,050207 economics ,Social democracy - Abstract
This Working Paper presents three separate comments on Servaas Storm’s “The Economics and Politics of Social Democracy: A Reconsideration”. The first is by Joseph Halevi and Peter Kriesler; the second is by Duncan Foley; and the third is by Thomas Ferguson.
- Published
- 2020
20. Socialist alternatives to capitalism I: Marx to Hayek
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Duncan K. Foley
- Subjects
Proletariat ,Capital accumulation ,Socialism ,Keynesian economics ,Economics ,International political economy ,Mixed economy ,General Medicine ,Capitalism ,Neoclassical economics ,Socialist calculation debate ,New Economic Policy - Abstract
This paper surveys the development of the concept of socialism from the French Revolution to the socialist calculation debate. Karl Marx’s politics of revolutionary socialism led by an empowered proletariat nurtured by capital accumulation envisions socialism as a “top-down” system resting on political institutions, despite Marx’s keen appreciation of the long-period analysis of the organization of social production in the classical political economists. Collectivist thinking in the work of Enrico Barone and Wilfredo Pareto paved the way for the discussion of socialism purely in terms of the allocation of resources. The Soviet experiment abandoned the mixed economy model of the New Economic Policy for a political-bureaucratic administration of production only loosely connected to theoretical concepts of socialism. The socialist calculation debate reductively recast the problem of socialism as a problem of allocation of resources, leading to general equilibrium theory. Friedrich Hayek responded to the socialist calculation debate by shifting the ground of discussion from class relations to information revelation.
- Published
- 2020
21. Socialist alternatives to capitalism II: Vienna to Santa Fe
- Author
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Duncan K. Foley
- Subjects
Socialism ,business.industry ,Political science ,International political economy ,Information technology ,Systems thinking ,General Medicine ,Workers' control ,Capitalism ,Economic system ,business ,Peer production ,Variety (cybernetics) - Abstract
Optimal control theory and information technology provide tools with the capacity to implement top-down centralized allocation of resources in complex economies organized through a social division of labor. Twentieth century political and systems thinking, however, emphasize the virtues of bottom-up spontaneously organized systems. Workers’ control can be analyzed as one variety of bottom-up spontaneous organization. Another is peer production, as in the case of open-source software. A model of peer production under the name Lifenet provides some insights into the advantages and limitations of this approach to socialism.
- Published
- 2020
22. Excitation efficiency determines the upconversion luminescence intensity of β-NaYF4:Er3+,Yb3+ nanoparticles in magnetic fields up to 70 T
- Author
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Duncan K. Maude, Paulina Plochocka, Roman Minikayev, Tomasz Wojciechowski, Michal Baranowski, Łukasz Kłopotowski, Bożena Sikora, and Anna Borodziuk
- Subjects
Photon ,Materials science ,Relaxation (NMR) ,Physics::Optics ,02 engineering and technology ,010402 general chemistry ,021001 nanoscience & nanotechnology ,7. Clean energy ,01 natural sciences ,Molecular physics ,0104 chemical sciences ,Magnetic field ,Phenomenological model ,Energy transformation ,General Materials Science ,0210 nano-technology ,Luminescence ,Absorption (electromagnetic radiation) ,Excitation - Abstract
Lanthanide-doped nanoparticles enable conversion of near-infrared photons to visible ones. This property is envisioned as a basis of a broad range of applications: from optoelectronics, via energy conversion, to bio-sensing and phototherapy. The spectrum of applications can be extended if magnetooptical properties of lanthanide dopants are well understood. However, at present, there are many conflicting reports on the influence of the magnetic field on the upconverted luminescence. In this work, we resolve this discrepancy by performing a comprehensive study of β-NaYF4:Er3+,Yb3+ nanoparticles. Crucially, we show that the magnetic field impacts the luminescence only via a Zeeman-driven detuning between the excitation laser and the absorption transition. On the other hand, the energy transfer and multiphonon relaxation rates are unaffected. We propose a phenomenological model, which qualitatively reproduces the experimental results. The presented results are expected to lead to design of novel, dual-mode opto-magnetic upconverting nanomaterials.
- Published
- 2020
23. Extragalactic Peaked-Spectrum Radio Sources at Low-Frequencies are Young Radio Galaxies
- Author
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Slob, M. M., Callingham, J. R., Röttgering, H. J. A., Williams, W. L., Duncan, K. J., de Gasperin, F., Hardcastle, M. J., and Miley, G. K.
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Space and Planetary Science ,Astrophysics of Galaxies (astro-ph.GA) ,FOS: Physical sciences ,Astronomy and Astrophysics ,Astrophysics - Astrophysics of Galaxies - Abstract
We present a sample of 373 peaked-spectrum (PS) sources with spectral peaks around 150MHz, selected using a subset of two LOFAR all-sky surveys, the LOFAR Two Meter Sky Survey and the LOFAR LBA Sky Survey. These surveys are the most sensitive low-frequency widefield surveys to date, allowing us to select low-luminosity PS sources. Our sample increases the number of known PS sources in our survey area by a factor 50. The 5GHz luminosity distribution of our PS sample shows we sample the lowest luminosity PS sources to-date by nearly an order of magnitude. Since high-frequency PS sources and compact steep-spectrum sources are hypothesised to be the precursors to large radio galaxies, we investigate whether this is also the case for our sample of low-frequency PS sources. Using optical line emission criteria, we find that our PS sources are predominately high-excitation radio galaxies instead of low-excitation radio galaxies, corresponding to a quickly evolving population. We compute the radio source counts of our PS sample, and find they are scaled down by a factor of $\sim$40 compared to a general sample of radio-loud active galactic nuclei (AGN). This implies that the lifetimes of PS sources are 40 times shorter than large scale radio galaxies, if their luminosity functions are identical. To investigate this, we compute the first radio luminosity function for a homogeneously-selected PS sample. We find that for 144MHz luminosities $\gtrsim 10^{25}$W Hz$^{-1}$, the PS luminosity function has the same shape as an unresolved radio-loud AGN population but shifted down by a factor of $\sim$10. We interpret this as strong evidence that these high-luminosity PS sources evolve into large-scale radio-loud AGN. For local, low-luminosity PS sources, there is a surplus of PS sources, which we hypothesise to be the addition of frustrated PS sources that do not evolve into large-scale AGN., Comment: 21 pages, accepted in Astronomy & Astrophysics
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
24. Shapes of galaxies hosting radio-loud AGNs with z \leq 1
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Zheng, X., Röttgering, H.J.A., Wel, A. van der, and Duncan, K.
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Galaxies - structure ,Space and Planetary Science ,Galaxies - fundamental parameters ,Astrophysics of Galaxies (astro-ph.GA) ,Galaxies - active ,FOS: Physical sciences ,Astronomy and Astrophysics ,Astrophysics - Astrophysics of Galaxies ,Galaxies - high-redshift - Abstract
Links between the properties of radio-loud active galactic nuclei (RLAGNs) and the morphology of their hosts may provide important clues for our understanding of how RLAGNs are triggered. In this work, focusing on passive galaxies, we study the shape of the hosts of RLAGNs selected from the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array Cosmic Evolution Survey (VLA-COSMOS) 3GHz Large Project, and compare them with previous results based on the first data release (DR1) of the LOFAR Two-Metre Sky Survey (LoTSS). We find that, at redshifts of between 0.6 and 1, high-luminosity ($L_{1.4 GHz}\gtrsim10^{24}\rm W Hz^{-1}$) RLAGNs have a wider range of optical projected axis ratios than their low-redshift counterparts, which are essentially all found in round galaxies with axis ratios of higher than 0.7. We construct control samples and show that although the hosts of high-redshift RLAGNs with the highest luminosities still have a rounder shape compared with the non-RLAGNs, they on average have a smaller axis ratio (more elongated) than the local RLAGNs with similar stellar masses and radio luminosities. This evolution can be interpreted as a byproduct of radio luminosity evolution, namely that galaxies at fixed stellar mass are more radio luminous at high redshifts: artificially increasing the radio luminosities of local galaxies ($z\leq$0.3) by a factor of 2 to 4 can remove the observed evolution of the axis ratio distribution. If this interpretation is correct then the implication is that the link between AGN radio luminosity and host galaxy shape is similar at $z\simeq1$ to in the present-day Universe., Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures. Accepted by A&A
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
25. Robust Inference of Neutron-star Parameters from Thermonuclear Burst Observations
- Author
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Duncan K. Galloway, Zac Johnston, Adelle Goodwin, and Chong-Chong He
- Subjects
High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena (astro-ph.HE) ,Space and Planetary Science ,FOS: Physical sciences ,Astronomy and Astrophysics ,Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena - Abstract
Thermonuclear (type-I) bursts arise from unstable ignition of accumulated fuel on the surface of neutron stars in low-mass X-ray binaries. Measurements of burst properties in principle enable observers to infer the properties of the host neutron star and mass donors, but a number of confounding astrophysical effects contribute to systematic uncertainties. Here we describe some commonly-used approaches for determining system parameters, including composition of the burst fuel, and introduce a new suite of software tools, concord, intended to fully account for astrophysical uncertainties. Comparison of observed burst properties with the predictions of numerical models is a complementary method of constraining host properties, and the tools presented here are intended to make comprehensive model-observation comparisons straightforward. When combined with the extensive samples of burst observations accumulated by X-ray observatories, these software tools will provide a step-change in the amount of information that can be inferred about typical burst sources., Comment: 22 pages, 11 figures, 1 table & 1 machine-readable table as supplementary data; submitted to ApJS. Accompanying software package available at https://github.com/outs1der/concord
- Published
- 2022
26. Introduction
- Author
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Duncan K. Foley
- Published
- 2021
27. Hierarchical‐matrix method for a class of diffusion‐dominated partial integro‐differential equations
- Author
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Alfio Borzì, Mario Bebendorf, and Duncan K. Gathungu
- Subjects
Class (set theory) ,Algebra and Number Theory ,Differential equation ,Applied Mathematics ,Hierarchical matrix ,Finite difference ,Applied mathematics ,Low-rank approximation ,Diffusion (business) ,Mathematics - Published
- 2021
28. Discovery of 24 radio-bright quasars at 4.9 ≤ z ≤ 6.6 using low-frequency radio observations
- Author
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Gloudemans, A. J., Duncan, K. J., Saxena, A., Harikane, Y., Hill, G. J., Zeimann, G. R., Rottgering, H. J. A., Yang, D., Best, P. N., Banados, E., Drabent, A., Hardcastle, M. J., Hennawi, J. F., Lansbury, G., Magliocchetti, M., Miley, G. K., Nanni, R., Shimwell, T. W., Smith, D. J. B., Venemans, B. P., and Wagenveld, J. D.
- Subjects
galaxies, quasars ,astro-ph.GA ,quasars ,FOS: Physical sciences ,active ,Astronomy and Astrophysics ,Astrophysics - Astrophysics of Galaxies ,radio continuum ,high-redshift ,active, Astrophysics - Astrophysics of Galaxies ,high-redshift, galaxies ,general ,Space and Planetary Science ,Astrophysics of Galaxies (astro-ph.GA) ,galaxies ,general, galaxies - Abstract
High redshift quasars ($z>5$) that also shine brightly at radio wavelengths are unique signposts of supermassive black hole activity in the early universe. However, bright radio sources at $z\ge5$ are extremely rare and therefore we have started a campaign to search for new high-$z$ quasars by combining an optical dropout selection driven by the $g$, $r$, and $z$ bands from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Legacy Imaging Surveys with low-frequency radio observations from the LOFAR Two-metre Sky Survey (LoTSS). Currently, LoTSS covers a large fraction of the northern sky (5720 deg$^2$) to such a depth (median noise level of 83 $\mu$Jy beam$^{-1}$) that about 30% of the general quasar population is detected $-$ which is a factor of 5-10 more than previous large sky radio surveys such as NVSS and FIRST, respectively. In this paper, we present the discovery of 20 new quasars (and the independent confirmation of 4) between $4.9\leq z\leq 6.6$. Out of the 24 quasars, 21 satisfy the traditional radio-loudness criterion of $R=f_{5\text{GHz}}/f_{4400A} > 10$, with the full sample spanning $R\sim$6-1000, thereby more than doubling the sample of known radio-loud quasars at $z \ge 5$. Our radio detection requirement strongly decreases the contamination of stellar sources and allows one to select these quasars in a broad redshift range. Despite selecting our quasar candidates using fewer and less conservative colour restrictions, both the optical and near-infrared colours, Ly$\alpha$ emission line properties, and dust reddening, $E(B-V)$, measurements of our quasar sample do not deviate from the known radio-quiet quasar population, suggesting similar optical quasar properties of the radio-loud and radio-quiet quasar population at high-$z$. Our campaign demonstrates the potential for discovering new high-$z$ quasar populations through next generation radio continuum surveys., Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures, Tab A1 corrected, accepted for publication in A&A
- Published
- 2022
29. Social coordination problems in classical and Marxian political economy
- Author
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Duncan K. Foley
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,Commodity production ,Social coordination ,Economics ,Per capita ,Alienation ,Hardware_ARITHMETICANDLOGICSTRUCTURES ,Neoclassical economics ,Adam smith ,Rational inattention ,Game theory - Abstract
This paper explores the application of information theory and game theory to questions arising in Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations and Karl Marx's critical reformulation of Smith's analysis in Capita...
- Published
- 2019
30. Bayesian multidimensional scaling procedure with variable selection
- Author
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Duncan K. H. Fong and Lin Lin
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,Clustering high-dimensional data ,Multivariate statistics ,Computer science ,Applied Mathematics ,Model selection ,Dimensionality reduction ,05 social sciences ,Bayesian probability ,Feature selection ,computer.software_genre ,01 natural sciences ,010104 statistics & probability ,Computational Mathematics ,Computational Theory and Mathematics ,0502 economics and business ,Covariate ,Data mining ,Multidimensional scaling ,0101 mathematics ,computer ,050205 econometrics - Abstract
Multidimensional scaling methods are frequently used by researchers and practitioners to project high dimensional data into a low dimensional space. However, it is a challenge to integrate side information which is available along with the dissimilarities to perform such dimension reduction analysis. A novel Bayesian integrative multidimensional scaling procedure, namely Bayesian multidimensional scaling with variable selection, is proposed to incorporate external information on the objects into the analysis through the use of a latent multivariate regression structure. The proposed Bayesian procedure allows the incorporation of covariate information into the dimension reduction analysis through the use of a variable selection strategy. An efficient computational algorithm to implement the procedure is also developed. A series of simulation experiments and a real data analysis are conducted, and the proposed model is shown to outperform several benchmark models based on some measures commonly used in the literature.
- Published
- 2019
31. Strain induced lifting of the charged exciton degeneracy in monolayer MoS2 on a GaAs nanomembrane
- Author
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Jakub Jasiński, Akshay Balgarkashi, Valerio Piazza, Didem Dede, Alessandro Surrente, Michał Baranowski, Duncan K Maude, Mitali Banerjee, Riccardo Frisenda, Andres Castellanos-Gomez, Anna Fontcuberta i Morral, and Paulina Plochocka
- Subjects
Mechanics of Materials ,Mechanical Engineering ,General Materials Science ,General Chemistry ,Condensed Matter Physics - Abstract
Strain is a commonly used tool to tune the optoelectronic properties of semiconductors. It is especially effective for transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs), which can withstand extreme strain up to 10%. To date, localised strain fields have been applied by transferring TMDs flakes onto a patterned SiO2 substrate. Here, we present a novel approach, where the strain in MoS2 monolayer is induced by an array of homoepitaxially grown GaAs nanomembranes. This represents a first step towards the integration of TMD monolayers with III–V semiconductor nanostructures, which is essential to develop scalable nanophotonic platforms. The strain imposed by the nanomembrane lifts the degeneracy of the exciton states, leading to linearly polarised emission. The principal axis of the linear polarisation of the emission is strictly determined by the orientation of the nanomembranes. This result is fully consistent with the expected broken crystal symmetry resulting from the imposed uniaxial strain.
- Published
- 2022
32. Demand drives growth all the way: Goodwin, Kaldor, Pasinetti and the Steady State
- Author
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Duncan K. Foley, Armon Rezai, and Lance Taylor
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,Steady state (electronics) ,Inequality ,media_common.quotation_subject ,502047 Volkswirtschaftstheorie ,Wage ,Distribution (economics) ,Income distribution ,502027 Politische Ökonomie ,0502 economics and business ,Economics ,502027 Political economy ,050207 economics ,media_common ,502042 Umweltökonomie ,business.industry ,Keynesian economics ,05 social sciences ,Induced innovation ,502042 Environmental economics ,502046 Volkswirtschaftspolitik ,502046 Economic policy ,Dual (category theory) ,Technical progress ,502047 Economic theory ,business ,050203 business & management - Abstract
A demand-driven alternative to the conventional Solow–Swan growth model is analysed. Its medium run is built around Marx–Goodwin cycles of demand and distribution. Long-run income and wealth distributions follow rules of accumulation stated by Pasinetti in combination with a technical progress function for labour productivity growth incorporating a Kaldor effect and induced innovation. An explicit steady state solution is presented along with analysis of dynamics. When wage income of capitalist households is introduced, the Samuelson–Modigliani steady state ‘dual’ to Pasinetti’s cannot be stable. Numerical simulation loosely based on US data suggests that the long-run growth rate is around 2% per year and that the capitalist share of wealth may rise from about 40 to 70% due to positive medium-term feedback of higher wealth inequality into its own growth.
- Published
- 2018
33. Magneto-spectroscopy studies provide direct evidence for the coupling of excitons to organic ligand vibrations in 2D RP perovskites
- Author
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Omer Yaffe, Alessandro Surrente, Damien Garrot, Emmauelle Deleporte, Paulina Plochocka, Matan Menahem, Mateusz Dyksik, Michal Baranowski, Gabriel Chehade, Galle Trippé-Allard, J. M. Urban, and Duncan K. Maude
- Subjects
Coupling (electronics) ,Vibration ,Materials science ,Ligand ,Direct evidence ,Chemical physics ,Exciton ,Spectroscopy ,Magneto - Published
- 2021
34. Combining Epidemic Model and Deep Learning to Study Cyber Attacks
- Author
-
Pascal Sungu Ngoy, Duncan K. Gathungu, and Kaninda Musumbu
- Subjects
Artificial neural network ,business.industry ,Differential equation ,Computer science ,Deep learning ,Finite difference method ,Euler method ,symbols.namesake ,Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno algorithm ,Ordinary differential equation ,Conjugate gradient method ,symbols ,Applied mathematics ,Artificial intelligence ,business - Abstract
Mathematical modeling has been proven to be a remarkably effective approach for bio-mathematician to study and understand the behavior of various malicious objects in a computer system. Due to the connection that exist between computer virus and disease infection, a SEIAR compartmental model has been proposed to model and analyses cyberspace attack where S stands for Susceptible, E for Exposed, I for Infected, A for Asymptomatic and R for Recovered. The dynamic of the above model is governed by a set of differential equations which are generally solved by finite difference methods such as Euler method, Crank-Nicolson method, Runge-Kutta method. However, solutions obtained by these methods are stored in a discretized form that presents some limitations in terms of space memory occupied when high resolution result are required or an accumulation of approximation error on every step of a finite-difference methods. In that regards, a deep neural learning approach has been implemented to solve the system of ordinary differential equation of the epidemic model. It has been found that neural network with one hidden layer shows good capacity in approximating the solution of the differential equation and it required less storage comparing to the traditional finite difference methods. For the convergence of the neural network model, BFGS has been a good optimization method compering to the Conjugate Gradient as well as the Limited Memory BFGS methods.
- Published
- 2021
35. Functional development of a V3-specific broadly neutralizing antibody isolated from a case of HIV superinfection
- Author
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Mackenzie M. Shipley, Vidya Mangala Prasad, Duncan K. Ralph, Elias Harkins, Amrit Dhar, Frederick A. Matsen IV, Kelly K. Lee, and Julie M. Overbaugh
- Subjects
viruses - Abstract
Stimulating broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) directly from germline remains a barrier for HIV vaccines. HIV superinfection elicits bnAbs more frequently than single infection, providing clues of how to elicit such responses. We used longitudinal antibody sequencing and structural studies to characterize bnAb development from a superinfection case. Mature bnAb QA013.2 bound both initial transmitted and superinfecting virus, but its inferred naïve bound only the superinfecting strain and was not neutralizing. QA013.2 requires residues spanning FWRH1-CDRH1 to attain breadth, which is uncommon for V3-specific bnAbs. A 4.15 Å cryo-EM structure of QA013.2 bound to heterologous native-like trimer showed recognition of V3 signatures (N301, N332, and GDIR). Antigenic profiling revealed that viral escape was achieved not only by changes in the structurally-defined epitope, but also by mutations in V1. These results highlight shared and distinct properties of QA013.2 relative to other V3-specific bnAbs in the setting of sequential, diverse antigenic variants.
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
36. macroH2A2 shapes chromatin accessibility at enhancer elements in glioblastoma to modulate a targetable self-renewal epigenetic network
- Author
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Michael J. Johnston, Parinaz Mehdipour, Douglas J. Mahoney, Katrina Ellestad, Christopher J Gafuik, Jennifer A. Chan, Ana Nikolic, Daniel D. De Carvalho, Nicoletta Ninkovic, Steven J.M. Jones, Xueqing Lun, Anna Bobyn, Peter B. Dirks, Francesca Maule, Yaoqing Shen, Darren J. Derksen, N. Daniel Berger, Donna L. Senger, Duncan K. Brownsey, Marco Gallo, Franz J. Zemp, and Sajid A. Marhon
- Subjects
Enhancer Elements ,Histone ,medicine ,biology.protein ,Epigenetics ,Biology ,Self renewal ,medicine.disease ,Transcription factor ,Function (biology) ,Chromatin ,Glioblastoma ,Cell biology - Abstract
SUMMARYSelf-renewal is a crucial property of glioblastoma cells and is enabled by the choreographed function of chromatin regulators and transcription factors. Identifying targetable epigenetic mechanisms of self-renewal could represent an important step toward developing new and effective treatments for this universally lethal cancer. Here we uncover a targetable epigenetic axis of self-renewal mediated by the histone variant macroH2A2. Using patient-derived in vitro and in vivo models, we show that macroH2A2 has a direct role in shaping chromatin accessibility at enhancer elements to antagonize transcriptional programs of self-renewal. Pharmaceutical inhibition of the chromatin remodeler Menin increased macroH2A2 levels and repressed self- renewal. Our results reveal a targetable epigenetic mechanism of self-renewal controlled by macroH2A2 and suggest new treatment approaches for glioblastoma patients.SIGNIFICANCEGlioblastoma is an incurable brain cancer. Malignant self-renewing cells have been shown to drive tumor growth, to be refractory to current treatment approaches and to seed relapses, which ultimately prove lethal. Identifying new and targetable mechanisms associated with self-renewal could be a fundamental first step in designing effective therapies that slow or prevent glioblastoma relapses. Using patient-derived models of glioblastoma, we deployed epigenomic approaches and functional assays to define the role of the histone variant macroH2A2 in repressing self-renewal. We identified compounds that increase macroH2A2 levels and repress self-renewal, including a Menin inhibitor. As Menin inhibitors are being tested in clinical trials, these compounds could be used in new therapeutic paradigms to target self-renewing cell populations in glioblastoma.
- Published
- 2021
37. Tuning the Excitonic Properties of the 2D (PEA)
- Author
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Mateusz, Dyksik, Shuli, Wang, Watcharaphol, Paritmongkol, Duncan K, Maude, William A, Tisdale, Michal, Baranowski, and Paulina, Plochocka
- Abstract
In atomically thin two-dimensional (2D) crystals, the excitonic properties and band structure scale strongly with the thickness, providing a new playground for the investigation of exciton physics in the ultimate confinement regime. Here, we demonstrate the evolution of the fundamental excitonic properties, such as reduced mass, wave function extension, and exciton binding energy, in the 2D perovskite (PEA)
- Published
- 2021
38. Phase Gradients and Anisotropy of the Suprachiasmatic Network
- Author
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Ken-ichi Honma, Joseph LeSauter, Nicholas C. Foley, Alana Taub, Sato Honma, Scott D. Pauls, Yoshikawa T, Robert M. Silver, and Duncan K. Foley
- Subjects
Physics ,medicine.anatomical_structure ,nervous system ,Artificial neural network ,Suprachiasmatic nucleus ,medicine ,Phase (waves) ,Oscillation (cell signaling) ,Biological neural network ,Neuron ,Granularity ,Network topology ,Biological system - Abstract
Biological neural networks operate at several levels of granularity, from the individual neuron to local neural circuits to networks of thousands of cells. The daily oscillation of the brain’s master clock in the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) rests on a yet to be identified network of connectivity among its ~20,000 neurons. The SCN provides an accessible model to explore neural organization at several levels of organization. To relate cellular to local and global network behaviors, we explore network topology by examining SCN slices in three orientations using immunochemistry, light and confocal microscopy, real-time imaging, and mathematical modeling. Importantly, the results reveal small local groupings of neurons that form intermediate structures, here termed “phaseomes” which can be identified through stable local phase differences of varying magnitude among neighboring cells. These local differences in phase are distinct from the global phase relationship – that between individual cells and the mean oscillation of the overall SCN. The magnitude of the phaseomes’ local phase differences are associated with a global phase gradient observed in the SCN’s rostral-caudal extent. Modeling results show that a gradient in connectivity strength can explain the observed gradient of phaseome strength, an extremely parsimonious explanation for the heterogeneous oscillatory structure of the SCN.Significance statementOscillation is a fundamental property of information sensing and encoding in the brain. Using real time imaging and modeling, we explore encoding of time by examining circadian oscillation in single neurons, small groups of neurons, and the entire nucleus, in the brain’s master: the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN). New insights into the network organization underlying circadian rhythmicity include the discovery of intermediate structures, termed ‘phaseomes’, characterized by neurons which are stably out of phase with their neighbors. Modeling indicates that the pattern of phaseomes across the tissue encompasses a gradient in connectivity strength from the rostral to caudal aspects of the nucleus. Anisotropy in network organization emerges from comparisons of phaseomes and connectivity gradients in sagittal, horizontal and coronal slices.
- Published
- 2021
39. Low frequency radio properties of the $z>5$ quasar population
- Author
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Gloudemans, A. J., Duncan, K. J., R��ttgering, H. J. A., Shimwell, T. W., Venemans, B. P., Best, P. N., Br��ggen, M., Rivera, G. Calistro, Drabent, A., Hardcastle, M. J., Miley, G. K., Schwarz, D. J., Saxena, A., Smith, D. J. B., and Williams, W. L.
- Subjects
Astrophysics::High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,Astrophysics of Galaxies (astro-ph.GA) ,Astrophysics::Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics ,FOS: Physical sciences ,Astrophysics::Cosmology and Extragalactic Astrophysics ,Astrophysics::Galaxy Astrophysics - Abstract
Optically luminous quasars at $z > 5$ are important probes of super-massive black hole (SMBH) formation. With new and future radio facilities, the discovery of the brightest low-frequency radio sources in this epoch would be an important new probe of cosmic reionization through 21-cm absorption experiments. In this work, we systematically study the low-frequency radio properties of a sample of 115 known spectroscopically confirmed $z>5$ quasars using the second data release of the Low Frequency Array (LOFAR) Two Metre Sky survey (LoTSS-DR2), reaching noise levels of $\sim$80 $��$Jy beam$^{-1}$ (at 144 MHz) over an area of $\sim5720$ deg$^2$. We find that 41 sources (36%) are detected in LoTSS-DR2 at $>2 ��$ significance and we explore the evolution of their radio properties (power, spectral index, and radio loudness) as a function of redshift and rest-frame ultra-violet properties. We obtain a median spectral index of $-0.29^{+0.10}_{-0.09}$ by stacking 93 quasars using LoTSS-DR2 and Faint Images of the Radio Sky at Twenty Centimetres (FIRST) data at 1.4 GHz, in line with observations of quasars at $z, 11 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in A&A
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
40. The return of the spin period in DW Cnc and evidence of new high state outbursts
- Author
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Duncan K. Galloway, Rosanna H. Tilbrook, Richard G. West, Mark Kennedy, P. A. Strøm, Kendall Ackley, Matthew R. Burleigh, Danny Steeghs, Beth A. Henderson, Vikram S. Dhillon, Martin Dyer, Jack S. Acton, Samuel Gill, Peter J. Wheatley, Sarah L. Casewell, Michael R. Goad, C. Duffy, David R. Anderson, and Gavin Ramsay
- Subjects
Accretion ,FOS: Physical sciences ,Astrophysics ,Intermediate polar ,Magnetorotational instability ,Astrophysics::Solar and Stellar Astrophysics ,individual: DW Cnc [Stars] ,Novae ,Solar and Stellar Astrophysics (astro-ph.SR) ,Spin-½ ,QB ,Physics ,Cataclysmic variables ,High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena (astro-ph.HE) ,Accretion (meteorology) ,White dwarf ,Astronomy and Astrophysics ,State (functional analysis) ,Magnetic field ,Amplitude ,Astrophysics - Solar and Stellar Astrophysics ,Space and Planetary Science ,Instabilities ,Astrophysics::Earth and Planetary Astrophysics ,Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,close [Binaries] ,Accretion discs - Abstract
DW Cnc is an intermediate polar which has previously been observed in both high and low states. Observations of the high state of DW Cnc have previously revealed a spin period at ~ 38.6 min, however observations from the 2018/19 low state showed no evidence of the spin period. We present results from our analysis of 12 s cadence photometric data collected by NGTS of DW Cnc during the high state which began in 2019. Following the previously reported suppression of the spin period signal we identify the return of this signal during the high state, consistent with previous observations of it. We identify this as the restarting of accretion during the high state. We further identified three short outbursts lasting ~ 1 d in DW Cnc with a mean recurrence time of ~ 60 d and an amplitude of ~ 1 mag. These are the first outbursts identified in DW Cnc since 2008. Due to the short nature of these events we identify them not as a result of accretion instabilities but instead either from instabilities originating from the interaction of the magnetorotational instability in the accretion disc and the magnetic field generated by the white dwarf or the result of magnetic gating., Comment: Accepted to MNRAS; 8 pages, 4 figues
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- 2021
- Full Text
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41. Evidence that short period AM CVn systems are diverse in outburst behaviour
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Kendall Ackley, G. Ramsay, D. Mata Sánchez, P. T. O'Brien, L. K. Nuttall, Don Pollacco, V. S. Dhillon, Duncan K. Galloway, K. Noysena, Martin J. Dyer, Krzysztof Ulaczyk, C. Duffy, Danny Steeghs, and J. D. Lyman
- Subjects
astro-ph.SR ,close [binaries] ,Astrophysics::High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,FOS: Physical sciences ,Astrophysics ,01 natural sciences ,Instability ,accretion ,surveys ,Accretion disc ,0103 physical sciences ,ST/T007184/1 ,Astrophysics::Solar and Stellar Astrophysics ,010303 astronomy & astrophysics ,STFC ,Astrophysics::Galaxy Astrophysics ,Solar and Stellar Astrophysics (astro-ph.SR) ,Physics ,Accretion (meteorology) ,010308 nuclear & particles physics ,RCUK ,Astronomy and Astrophysics ,ST/T003103/1 ,accretion discs ,Astrophysics - Solar and Stellar Astrophysics ,13. Climate action ,Space and Planetary Science ,dwarf novae [stars] - Abstract
We present results of our analysis of up to 15 years of photometric data from eight AM CVn systems with orbital periods between 22.5 and 26.8 min. Our data has been collected from the GOTO, ZTF, Pan-STARRS, ASAS-SN and Catalina all-sky surveys and amateur observations collated by the AAVSO. We find evidence that these interacting ultra-compact binaries show a similar diversity of long term optical properties as the hydrogen accreting dwarf novae. We found that AM CVn systems in the previously identified accretion disc instability region are not a homogenous group. Various members of the analysed sample exhibit behaviour reminiscent of Z Cam systems with long super outbursts and standstills, SU UMa systems with regular, shorter super outbursts, and nova-like systems which appear only in a high state. The addition of TESS full frame images of one of these systems, KL Dra, reveals the first evidence for normal outbursts appearing as a precursor to super outbursts in an AM CVn system. Our results will inform theoretical modelling of the outbursts of hydrogen deficient systems., Comment: 11 Pages, 7 Figures, 2 Tables. Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Author's final submitted version
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- 2021
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42. The Gravitational-wave Optical Transient Observer (GOTO)
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Danny Steeghs, Kendall Ackley, Rene P. Breton, P. T. O'Brien, Gavin Ramsay, K. Noysena, Don Pollacco, V. S. Dhillon, Martin J. Dyer, J. D. Lyman, Krzysztof Ulaczyk, Rubina Kotak, L. Nuttall, Duncan K. Galloway, Enric Palle, Marshall, Heather K., Spyromilio, Jason, and Usuda, Tomonori
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Goto ,Computer science ,gr-qc ,sky surveys ,FOS: Physical sciences ,Field of view ,General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology (gr-qc) ,General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology ,law.invention ,Telescope ,law ,Observatory ,ST/T007184/1 ,Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics (astro-ph.IM) ,STFC ,transient follow-up ,Gravitational wave ,RCUK ,Astronomy ,telescopes ,Observer (special relativity) ,ST/T003103/1 ,Mount ,gravitational waves ,multi-site observatories ,Magnitude (astronomy) ,Astrophysics - Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics ,astro-ph.IM - Abstract
The Gravitational-wave Optical Transient Observer (GOTO) is a wide-field telescope project focused on detecting optical counterparts to gravitational-wave sources. GOTO uses arrays of 40 cm unit telescopes (UTs) on a shared robotic mount, which scales to provide large fields of view in a cost-effective manner. A complete GOTO mount uses 8 unit telescopes to give an overall field of view of 40 square degrees, and can reach a depth of 20th magnitude in three minutes. The GOTO-4 prototype was inaugurated with 4 unit telescopes in 2017 on La Palma, and was upgraded to a full 8-telescope array in 2020. A second 8-UT mount will be installed on La Palma in early 2021, and another GOTO node with two more mount systems is planned for a southern site in Australia. When complete, each mount will be networked to form a robotic, dual-hemisphere observatory, which will survey the entire visible sky every few nights and enable rapid follow-up detections of transient sources., Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, submitted to SPIE Astronomical Telescopes + Instrumentation 2020
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- 2020
43. Developing the GOTO telescope control system
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Duncan K. Galloway, Krzysztof Ulaczyk, J. D. Lyman, V. S. Dhillon, Paul Chote, Y. L. Mong, Martin J. Dyer, S. P. Littlefair, Danny Steeghs, and Kendall Ackley
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Goto ,Computer science ,FOS: Physical sciences ,computer.software_genre ,Mount ,law.invention ,Scheduling (computing) ,Planetarium ,Telescope ,law ,Observatory ,Control system ,Operating system ,Daemon ,Astrophysics - Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics ,Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics (astro-ph.IM) ,computer - Abstract
The Gravitational-wave Optical Transient Observer (GOTO) is a wide-field telescope project focused on detecting optical counterparts to gravitational-wave sources. The GOTO Telescope Control System (G-TeCS) is a custom robotic control system which autonomously manages the GOTO telescope hardware and nightly operations. Since the commissioning the GOTO prototype on La Palma in 2017, development of the control system has focused on the alert handling and scheduling systems. These allow GOTO to receive and process transient alerts and then schedule and carry out observations, all without the need for human involvement. GOTO is ultimately anticipated to include multiple telescope arrays on independent mounts, both on La Palma and at a southern site in Australia. When complete these mounts will be linked to form a single multi-site observatory, requiring more advanced scheduling systems to best optimise survey and follow-up observations., 12 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables, submitted to SPIE Astronomical Telescopes + Instrumentation 2020
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- 2020
44. Age-structured Impact of Mitigation Strategies on COVID-19 Severity and Deaths in Kenya
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Samuel Mwalili, Mark Kimathi, Viona N. Ojiambo, Duncan K. Gathungu, and Thomas N. O. Achia
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Text mining ,Geography ,Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ,business.industry ,Environmental health ,business ,Age structured - Abstract
Introduction: COVID-19, a coronavirus disease 2019, is an ongoing pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). There have been a lot of attempts to model this pandemic from a global perspective. The Novel Coronavirus is still spreading quickly in several countries and the peak has not yet been reached in many countries. We developed age-structured model for describing the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya under different non-pharmaceutical interventions. The first case in Kenya was identified in March 13, 2020 with the pandemic increasing to 465 confirmed cases by end of 3rd May, 2020. We fitted an age-structured deterministic mathematical model in Kenyan context.Methods: We model the COVID-19 situation in Kenya using Age-structured Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered compartmental model. These compartments follow a cascade of the disease from the Susceptible to Exposed individuals who in return are either symptomatic or asymptomatic. The symptomatic depict mild signs, which can develop to severe symptoms warranting hospitalization or can otherwise recover. The severe cases can recover with some developing critical condition. The critical are admitted at intensive care units. The resulting age-dependent ordinary differential equations from the model are solved using fourth order Runge-Kutta methods. We controlled for school closure, social distancing and lockdown in terms of movement restrictionsResults: The model shows varying epidemic peak by age-structure and the mitigation scenarios. The peak dates for unmitigated (UM), the 45% NPI (M45) and School closure-curfew-partial lockdown NPI (SCL) are May 21st, October 17th and December 13th 2020, respectively. Their respective cumulative infections peaks are 43M, 24M and 25M. The daily reported severe cases, critical cases and death proportionately increased with age. Conclusions: The cumulative number of infections reduces greatly with introduction of school closure, social distancing and restricted movement in highly affected counties. The degree of COVID-19 severity increases with age. However, it is not immediately clear when these restrictions can be lifted.
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- 2020
45. Thermonuclear X-ray Bursts
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Laurens Keek and Duncan K. Galloway
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Experimental physics ,Physics ,Neutron star ,Thermonuclear fusion ,010308 nuclear & particles physics ,Astrophysics::High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena ,0103 physical sciences ,Fundamental physics ,Astrophysics ,010303 astronomy & astrophysics ,01 natural sciences - Abstract
Type-I X-ray bursts arise from unstable thermonuclear burning of accreted fuel on the surface of neutron stars. In this chapter we review the fundamental physics of the burning processes, and summarise the observational, numerical, and nuclear experimental progress over the preceding decade. We describe the current understanding of the conditions that lead to burst ignition, and the influence of the burst fuel on the observational characteristics. We provide an overview of the processes which shape the burst X-ray spectrum, including the observationally elusive discrete spectral features. We report on the studies of timing behaviour related to nuclear burning, including burst oscillations and mHz quasi-periodic oscillations. We describe the increasing role of nuclear experimental physics in the interpretation of astrophysical data and models. We survey the simulation projects that have taken place to date, and chart the increasing dialogue between modellers, observers, and nuclear experimentalists. Finally, we identify some open problems with prospects of a resolution within the timescale of the next such review.
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- 2020
46. Excitation efficiency determines the upconversion luminescence intensity of β-NaYF
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Anna, Borodziuk, Michał, Baranowski, Tomasz, Wojciechowski, Roman, Minikayev, Bożena, Sikora, Duncan K, Maude, Paulina, Plochocka, and Łukasz, Kłopotowski
- Abstract
Lanthanide-doped nanoparticles enable conversion of near-infrared photons to visible ones. This property is envisioned as a basis of a broad range of applications: from optoelectronics, via energy conversion, to bio-sensing and phototherapy. The spectrum of applications can be extended if magnetooptical properties of lanthanide dopants are well understood. However, at present, there are many conflicting reports on the influence of the magnetic field on the upconverted luminescence. In this work, we resolve this discrepancy by performing a comprehensive study of β-NaYF4:Er3+,Yb3+ nanoparticles. Crucially, we show that the magnetic field impacts the luminescence only via a Zeeman-driven detuning between the excitation laser and the absorption transition. On the other hand, the energy transfer and multiphonon relaxation rates are unaffected. We propose a phenomenological model, which qualitatively reproduces the experimental results. The presented results are expected to lead to design of novel, dual-mode opto-magnetic upconverting nanomaterials.
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- 2020
47. Social multipliers and the Covid-19 epidemic: Analysis through constrained maximum entropy modeling
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Duncan K. Foley
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Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ,Social distance ,Principle of maximum entropy ,Economics ,Epidemic dynamics ,Econometrics ,Individual risk - Abstract
Social multipliers occur when individual actions influence other individual actions so as to lead to amplified aggregate effects. Epidemic infections offer a dramatic example of this phenomenon since individual actions such as social distancing and masking that have small effects on individuals’ risk can have very large effects in reducing risk when they are widely adopted. This paper uses the info-metric method of constrained maximum entropy modeling to estimate the impact of social multiplier effects in the Covid-19 epidemic with a model that infers the length of infection, the rate of mortality, the base infection factor, and reductions in the infection factor due to changes in social behavior from data on daily infections and deaths. When the model takes account of the rate of reporting of infections, it can produce three rather different scenarios of epidemic dynamics, which have marginally different posterior probabilities: one in which reporting is very low, under 10% and the estimated infection is correspondingly large, and immunity effects play a significant role in stabilizing the epidemic; a second in which reporting is on the order of 25% and the model estimates a significant portion of the population as having inherent immunity to the infection; and a third where reporting rates are close to 100%, and the epidemic is controlled mostly by changes in social behavior. These qualitatively different scenarios reflect the limited data the method can extract information from in this case.
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- 2020
48. Revealing Excitonic Phonon Coupling in (PEA)
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Joanna M, Urban, Gabriel, Chehade, Mateusz, Dyksik, Matan, Menahem, Alessandro, Surrente, Gaëlle, Trippé-Allard, Duncan K, Maude, Damien, Garrot, Omer, Yaffe, Emmanuelle, Deleporte, Paulina, Plochocka, and Michal, Baranowski
- Abstract
The family of 2D Ruddlesden-Popper perovskites is currently attracting great interest of the scientific community as highly promising materials for energy harvesting and light emission applications. Despite the fact that these materials are known for decades, only recently has it become apparent that their optical properties are driven by the exciton-phonon coupling, which is controlled by the organic spacers. However, the detailed mechanism of this coupling, which gives rise to complex absorption and emission spectra, is the subject of ongoing controversy. In this work we show that the particularly rich, absorption spectra of (PEA)
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- 2020
49. Greenhouse gas and cyclical growth
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Duncan K. Foley and Lance Taylor
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Effective demand ,Greenhouse gas ,Capital (economics) ,Econometrics ,Per capita ,Economics ,Climate change ,Growth model ,Investment (macroeconomics) ,Energy productivity - Abstract
A growth model incorporating dynamics of capital per capita, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and labor and energy productivity is described. In the “medium run,†output and employment are determined by effective demand in contrast to most models of climate change. In a “long run†of several centuries the model converges to a stationary state with zero net emissions of CO2. Properties of dismal and non-dismal stationary states are explored, with a latter requiring a relatively high level of investment in mitigation of emissions. Without such investment under “business as usual,†output dynamics are strongly cyclical in numerical simulations. There is strong output growth for about eight decades, then a climate crisis, and output crash.
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- 2020
50. Unfulfilled Expectations: One Economist’s History
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Duncan K. Foley
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Rational expectations ,Futures studies ,Economic equilibrium ,Intellectual development ,Keynesian economics ,Economics ,Economic model ,Representative agent ,Structuring ,Stock (geology) - Abstract
The problem of expectations in economic models is reviewed through the intellectual development of the author. Initial efforts at macroeconomic modeling such as Foley–Sidrauski (Foley and Sidrauski 1971) treated expectations as conditioning variables for representative agent stock demands and supplies of financial and real assets. Perfect foresight (rational expectations) in this context leads to saddle-point instability of equilibrium, and the unanswered question of what behavioral forces will guarantee that the economy stays on the stable manifold. In later work such as Foley–Albin (Albin 1998), the economy appears as a complex, adaptive system far from equilibrium in which endogenous regime shifts make the statistical formation of expectations impossible. This perspective calls into question the presumed central role of expectations formation in structuring macroeconomic dynamics. The quantal response statistical equilibrium model can throw some light on the process by which markets penalize incorrect expectations of price change.
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- 2020
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