1. Investigating the Long-term Effect of Pregnancy on the Course of Multiple Sclerosis Using Causal Inference
- Author
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Gavoille, Antoine, Rollot, Fabien, Casey, Romain, Debouverie, Marc, Le Page, Emmanuelle, Ciron, Jonathan, de Seze, Jerome, Ruet, Aurélie, Maillart, Elisabeth, Labauge, Pierre, Zephir, Helene, Papeix, Caroline, Defer, Gilles, Lebrun-Frenay, Christine, Moreau, Thibault, Laplaud, David Axel, Berger, Eric, Stankoff, Bruno, Clavelou, Pierre, Thouvenot, Eric, Heinzlef, Olivier, Pelletier, Jean, Al Khedr, Abdullatif, Casez, Olivier, Bourre, Bertrand, Cabre, Philippe, Wahab, Abir, Magy, Laurent, Camdessanche, Jean-Philippe, Maurousset, Aude, Moulin, Solène, Ben, Nasr Haifa, Boulos, Dalia Dimitri, Hankiewicz, Karolina, Neau, Jean-Philippe, Pottier, Corinne, Nifle, Chantal, Rabilloud, Muriel, Subtil, Fabien, Vukusic, Sandra, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive - UMR 5558 (LBBE), Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Hospices Civils de Lyon (HCL), Centre de recherche en neurosciences de Lyon - Lyon Neuroscience Research Center (CRNL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne (UJM)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), CHU Pontchaillou [Rennes], Centre d'Investigation Clinique [Rennes] (CIC), Université de Rennes (UR)-Hôpital Pontchaillou-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Centre hospitalier universitaire de Poitiers (CHU Poitiers), Neurocentre Magendie : Physiopathologie de la Plasticité Neuronale (U1215 Inserm - UB), Université de Bordeaux (UB)-Institut François Magendie-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire [Montpellier] (CHRU Montpellier), Université de Montpellier (UM), Laboratoire d'Immunologie (EA 2686), Université de Lille, Droit et Santé, CHU Pitié-Salpêtrière [AP-HP], Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Service de Neurologie [CHU Caen], Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-CHU Caen, Normandie Université (NU)-Tumorothèque de Caen Basse-Normandie (TCBN)-Tumorothèque de Caen Basse-Normandie (TCBN), Service de Neurologie générale, vasculaire et dégénérative (CHU de Dijon), Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Dijon - Hôpital François Mitterrand (CHU Dijon), CIC Plurithématique de Nantes, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Ministère des Affaires sociales et de la Santé-Direction générale de l'offre de soins (DGOS)-Centre hospitalier universitaire de Nantes (CHU Nantes), Centre de Recherche en Transplantation et Immunologie - Center for Research in Transplantation and Translational Immunology (U1064 Inserm - CR2TI), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Nantes Université - UFR de Médecine et des Techniques Médicales (Nantes Univ - UFR MEDECINE), Nantes Université - pôle Santé, Nantes Université (Nantes Univ)-Nantes Université (Nantes Univ)-Nantes Université - pôle Santé, Nantes Université (Nantes Univ)-Nantes Université (Nantes Univ), Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC - CNS), CHU Saint-Antoine [AP-HP], Centre de résonance magnétique biologique et médicale (CRMBM), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Marseille (APHM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Hôpital Universitaire Carémeau [Nîmes] (CHU Nîmes), Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Nîmes (CHU Nîmes), Institut de Génomique Fonctionnelle (IGF), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM), CHI Poissy-Saint-Germain, Département biostatistiques et modélisation pour la santé et l'environnement [LBBE], and Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL)
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MESH: Humans ,MESH: Multiple Sclerosis, Relapsing-Remitting ,MESH: Probability ,All CBMRT/Null Hypothesis ,MESH: Multiple Sclerosis ,MESH: Disabled Persons ,MESH: Recurrence ,Multiple sclerosis ,MESH: Pregnancy ,Cohort studies ,MESH: Disease Progression ,[SDV.NEU]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Neurons and Cognition [q-bio.NC] ,Neurology (clinical) ,MESH: Female ,MESH: Cohort Studies ,[SDV.MHEP]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology ,Research Article - Abstract
Background and ObjectivesThe question of the long-term safety of pregnancy is a major concern in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), but its study is biased by reverse causation (women with higher disability are less likely to experience pregnancy). Using a causal inference approach, we aimed to estimate the unbiased long-term effects of pregnancy on disability and relapse risk in patients with MS and secondarily the short-term effects (during the perpartum and postpartum years) and delayed effects (occurring beyond 1 year after delivery).MethodsWe conducted an observational cohort study with data from patients with MS followed in the Observatoire Français de la Sclérose en Plaques registry between 1990 and 2020. We included female patients with MS aged 18–45 years at MS onset, clinically followed up for more than 2 years, and with ≥3 Expanded Disease Status Scale (EDSS) measurements. Outcomes were the mean EDSS score at the end of follow-up and the annual probability of relapse during follow-up. Counterfactual outcomes were predicted using the longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimator in the entire study population. The patients exposed to at least 1 pregnancy during their follow-up were compared with the counterfactual situation in which, contrary to what was observed, they would not have been exposed to any pregnancy. Short-term and delayed effects were analyzed from the first pregnancy of early-exposed patients (who experienced it during their first 3 years of follow-up).ResultsWe included 9,100 patients, with a median follow-up duration of 7.8 years, of whom 2,125 (23.4%) patients were exposed to at least 1 pregnancy. Pregnancy had no significant long-term causal effect on the mean EDSS score at 9 years (causal mean difference [95% CI] = 0.00 [−0.16 to 0.15]) or on the annual probability of relapse (causal risk ratio [95% CI] = 0.95 [0.93–1.38]). For the 1,253 early-exposed patients, pregnancy significantly decreased the probability of relapse during the perpartum year and significantly increased it during the postpartum year, but no significant delayed effect was found on the EDSS and relapse rate.DiscussionUsing a causal inference approach, we found no evidence of significantly deleterious or beneficial long-term effects of pregnancy on disability. The beneficial effects found in other studies were probably related to a reverse causation bias.
- Published
- 2022