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We address the problem of modeling complex target behavior using a stochastic model that integrates object dynamics, statistics gathered from the environment and semantic knowledge about the scene. The method exploits prior knowledge to build point-wise polar histograms that provide the ability to forecast target motion to the most likely paths. Physical constraints are included in the model through a ray-launching procedure, while semantic scene segmentation is used to provide a coarser representation of the most likely crossable areas. The model is enhanced with statistics extracted from previously observed trajectories and with nearly-constant velocity dynamics. Information regarding the target's destination may also be included steering the prediction to a predetermined area. Our experimental results, validated in comparison to actual targets' trajectories, demonstrate that our approach can be effective in forecasting objects' behavior in structured scenes.

Inspired by the fair regularity of the motion of ships, we present a method to derive a representation of the commercial maritime traffic in the form of a graph, whose nodes represent way-point areas, or regions of likely direction changes, and whose edges represent navigational legs with constant cruise velocity. The proposed method is based on the representation of a ship's velocity with an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and on the detection of changes of its long-run mean to identify navigational way-points. In order to assess the graph representativeness of the traffic, two performance metrics are introduced, leading to distinct graph construction criteria. Finally, the proposed method is validated against real-world Automatic Identification System data collected in a large area.