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Background Long-term follow-up of large cohorts is needed to determine the effects of HPV and screening on CIN3 (grade 3 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia) and ICC (invasive cervical cancer). Methods Women were recruited when attending for routine cervical screening in Greater Manchester, UK: 1987–93 for the Manchester Cohort (MC: 47,625 women) and 2001–03 for the ARTISTIC Cohort (AC: 24,496 women). Both were followed through national registration for cancer incidence and mortality to 2020. Results Risk patterns following HPV infection differed for CIN3 and ICC. Risk of ICC in the MC rises for 30 years following a single positive HPV test, reaching 2.5% (95% CI: 1.3–4.5%). A similar pattern was seen in the AC, but the risks of cancer were approximately halved. CIN3 was diagnosed much sooner in the AC due to more efficient cytology. More sensitive HPV testing was able to better predict future risk. Conclusion The sensitivity of HPV testing and cytology influences the CIN3 detection rate. Sensitive HPV testing enables effective risk stratification. Increased risk of ICC is observed 15–30 years after HPV infection. Women testing HPV + should be followed until their infection clears. Discharging women from screening programmes whilst they remain HPV + may not be safe, even if cytology and colposcopy tests are normal.

Background: A 2017 meta-analysis of data from 25 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of vitamin D supplementation for the prevention of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) revealed a protective effect of this intervention. We aimed to examine the link between vitamin D supplementation and prevention of ARIs in an updated meta-analysis. Methods: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Web of Science, and the ClinicalTrials.gov registry for studies listed from database inception to May 1, 2020. Double-blind RCTs of vitamin D3, vitamin D2, or 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) supplementation for any duration, with a placebo or low-dose vitamin D control, were eligible if they had been approved by a research ethics committee, and if ARI incidence was collected prospectively and prespecified as an efficacy outcome. Studies reporting results of long-term follow-up of primary RCTs were excluded. Aggregated study-level data, stratified by baseline 25(OH)D concentration and age, were obtained from study authors. Using the proportion of participants in each trial who had one or more ARIs, we did a random-effects meta-analysis to obtain pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs to estimate the effect of vitamin D supplementation on the risk of having one or more ARIs (primary outcome) compared with placebo. Subgroup analyses were done to estimate whether the effects of vitamin D supplementation on the risk of ARI varied according to baseline 25(OH)D concentration (vs 25·0–49·9 nmol/L vs 50·0–74·9 nmol/L vs >75·0 nmol/L), vitamin D dose (daily equivalent of vs 400–1000 IU vs 1001–2000 IU vs >2000 IU), dosing frequency (daily vs weekly vs once per month to once every 3 months), trial duration (≤12 months vs >12 months), age at enrolment (vs 1·00–15·99 years vs 16·00–64·99 years vs ≥65·00 years), and presence versus absence of airway disease (ie, asthma only, COPD only, or unrestricted). Risk of bias was assessed with the Cochrane Collaboration Risk of Bias Tool. The study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020190633. Findings: We identified 1528 articles, of which 46 RCTs (75 541 participants) were eligible. Data for the primary outcome were obtained for 48 488 (98·1%) of 49 419 participants (aged 0–95 years) in 43 studies. A significantly lower proportion of participants in the vitamin D supplementation group had one or more ARIs (14 332 [61·3%] of 23 364 participants) than in the placebo group (14 217 [62·3%] of 22 802 participants), with an OR of 0·92 (95% CI 0·86–0·99; 37 studies; I2=35·6%, pheterogeneity=0·018). No significant effect of vitamin D supplementation on the risk of having one or more ARIs was observed for any of the subgroups defined by baseline 25(OH)D concentration. However, protective effects of supplementation were observed in trials in which vitamin D was given in a daily dosing regimen (OR 0·78 [95% CI 0·65–0·94]; 19 studies; I2=53·5%, pheterogeneity=0·003), at daily dose equivalents of 400–1000 IU (0·70 [0·55–0·89]; ten studies; I2=31·2%, pheterogeneity=0·16), for a duration of 12 months or less (0·82 [0·72–0·93]; 29 studies; I2=38·1%, pheterogeneity=0·021), and to participants aged 1·00–15·99 years at enrolment (0·71 [0·57–0·90]; 15 studies; I2=46·0%, pheterogeneity=0·027). No significant interaction between allocation to the vitamin D supplementation group versus the placebo group and dose, dose frequency, study duration, or age was observed. In addition, no significant difference in the proportion of participants who had at least one serious adverse event in the vitamin supplementation group compared with the placebo group was observed (0·97 [0·86–1·07]; 36 studies; I2=0·0%, pheterogeneity=0·99). Risk of bias within individual studies was assessed as being low for all but three trials. Interpretation: Despite evidence of significant heterogeneity across trials, vitamin D supplementation was safe and overall reduced the risk of ARI compared with placebo, although the risk reduction was small. Protection was associated with administration of daily doses of 400–1000 IU for up to 12 months, and age at enrolment of 1·00–15·99 years. The relevance of these findings to COVID-19 is not known and requires further investigation. Funding: None.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the performance of the Swede score to detect cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) in women with HIV-1 in Johannesburg, South Africa. METHODS A cross-sectional study using secondary data analysis from the HPV in Africa Research Partnership (HARP) study that compared the performance of three different screening tests to detect CIN. Colposcopy was performed on any woman who screened positive and findings were recorded using the Swede score. A biopsy of any lesion and a four-quadrant biopsy was taken. The score was evaluated against a histological diagnosis of >CIN1. The sensistivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for each score was calculated. RESULTS Median age and CD4+ count of the 576 women eligible from the Johannesburg cohort was 34 years (IQR, 30-39) and 427 cells/mm3 (IQR, 323-579), respectively. Almost two-thirds (64%) were on ART and about 21% had CIN 2+ on histology. A Swede score of 5 or greater had the best combination of sensitivity and specificity for CIN 2+ with an AUC of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.68-0.76) corresponding to a sensitivity of 72.1 (95% CI, 63.5-79.6) and specificity of 71.8 (95% CI, 67.4-75.9). CONCLUSION The Swede score can assist in determining whether women with HIV/AIDS should have treatment at the first colposcopy visit versus those who may be followed up, thereby individualizing treatment.

Objectives To estimate long-term cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3) risks associated with different triage strategies for human papillomavirus positive (HPV+) women with a view to reducing unnecessary referrals. Design The ARTISTIC trial cohort was recruited in Manchester in 2001-03 and was followed up for CIN3 and cancer notification through national registration until December 2015. Results The 10-year cumulative risk of CIN3+ was much higher for women with HPV16/18 infection (19.4%, 95% CI 15.8-23.8% with borderline/low-grade cytology and 10.7%, 95% CI 8.3-13.9% with normal cytology) than for those with other HPV types (7.3%, 95% CI 5.4-9.7% with borderline/low-grade cytology and 3.2%, 95% CI 2.2-4.5% with normal cytology). Among the 379 women with normal to low-grade cytology and new HPV infection, the 10-year cumulative CIN3+ risk was 2.9% (95% CI 1.6-5.2%). Conclusions The CIN3 risk is confined to women with persistent type-specific HPV so partial genotyping test assays identifying HPV16/18 as a minimum are essential for efficient risk stratification. Immediate referral to colposcopy for HPV+ women with borderline or low-grade cytology and referral after a year if still HPV+ with normal cytology may be unnecessary. Low-grade lesions can safely be retested to identify those with persistent HPV. Recall intervals of 1 year for HPV16/18 and 2 years for other high-risk HPVs are justified for women with normal cytology and might also be considered for women with borderline/low-grade cytology. The minimal risk of invasive cancer that has progressed beyond stage 1A must be weighed against the advantages for patients and the NHS of reducing the number of referrals to colposcopy. Tweetable abstract Cervical screening would be better for women and cheaper for the NHS if women with HPV and normal to low-grade cytology were retested after a year or two when many infections will have cleared.

Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). The risk of radiation effects in children of individuals exposed to ionising radiation remains an ongoing concern for aged veterans of the British nuclear testing programme. The genetic and cytogenetic family trio (GCFT) study is the first study to obtain blood samples from a group of British nuclear test veterans and their families for the purposes of identifying genetic alterations in offspring as a consequence of historical paternal exposure to ionising radiation. In this report, we describe the processes for recruitment and sampling, and provide a general description of the study population recruited. In total, blood samples were received from 91 (49 test and 42 control) families representing veteran servicemen from the army, Royal Air Force and Royal Navy. This translated to an overall response rate of 14% (49/353) for test veterans and 4% (42/992) for control veterans (excluding responders known to be ineligible). Due to the lack of dose information available, test veterans were allocated to a three-point exposure rank. Thirty (61%) test veterans were ranked in the lower group. Nineteen (39%) of the 49 test veterans were classified in the mid (5 veterans; 10%)/high (14 veterans; 29%) exposure ranks and included 12 veterans previously identified as belonging to the special groups or listed in health physics documents. An increased number of test veteran families (20%), compared with control families (5%), self-reported offspring with congenital abnormalities (p = 0.03). Whether this observation in this small group is reflective of the entire UK test veteran cohort or whether it is selection bias requires further work. The cohort described here represent an important and unique family trio grouping whose participation is enabling genetic studies, as part of the GCFT study, to be carried out. The outcomes of these studies will be published elsewhere. ISRCTN Registry: 17461668. Nuclear Community Charity Fund (NCCF) through funds received by The Armed Forces Covenant Fund Trust under the Aged Veterans Fund Grant AVF16; Brunel University London under Grant 10790100.

For 50 years, the effect of age at first birth (AFB) has been thought to explain the strong association between breast cancer risk and age at first marriage (AFM), which was first reported in 1926. The independent effects of AFM, AFB and number of sexual partners adjusted for parity and other risk factors were estimated in reanalysis of a large international case-control study conducted in 1979 to 1982 (2274 breast cancers, 18209 controls) by unconditional logistic regression. Respective AFB and AFM breast cancer odds ratios (ORs) for ≥31 years relative to ≤18 years were 3.01 (95% CI 2.44-3.71;P(trend) P(trend) P(trend) P(trend) P(trend)&thinsp

Objective To evaluate the association between childhood leukemia and residential proximity to nuclear power plants (NPP). Methods We performed a systematic review by searching the MEDLINE database for published studies of childhood leukemia incidence and proximity to NPP. The primary analysis included children Results A meta-analysis including eight studies (1,665 cases) of childhood leukemia within 25km of NPPs produced a pooled estimate of 1.00 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.95–1.05). A secondary analysis of a subset of three case-control studies (53 cases) examining the risk in children Conclusion Meta-estimates for ecological/cohort and case-control studies did not provide evidence of an increase in leukemia incidence in children

Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing is used in primary cervical screening, as an adjunct to cervical cytology for the management of low grade abnormal cytology, and in a test of cure. PapilloCheck (Greiner Bio-One) is a PCR-based DNA microarray system that can individually identify 24 HPV types, including the 13 high-risk (HR) types identified by Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2). Here, we compare PapilloCheck with HC2 for the detection of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2+) in a total of 8,610 cervical cytology samples from the ARTISTIC population-based cervical screening study. We performed a retrospective analysis of 3,518 cytology samples from round 1 ARTISTIC enriched for underlying CIN2+ ( n = 723) and a prospective analysis of 5,092 samples from round 3 ARTISTIC. Discrepant results were tested using the Roche reverse line blot (RLB) or Linear Array (LA) assay. The relative sensitivity and specificity of HR PapilloCheck compared with that of HC2 for the detection of CIN2+ in women aged over 30 years were 0.94 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91, 0.97) and 1.05 (95% CI, 1.04, 1.05), respectively. HC2 missed 44/672 (7%) CIN2+ lesions, while HR PapilloCheck missed 74/672 (11%) CIN2+ lesions. Thirty-six percent of HC2-positive normal cytology samples were HR HPV negative by both PapilloCheck and RLB/LA, indicating that the use of HR PapilloCheck rather than HC2 in population-based primary screening would reduce the number of additional tests required (e.g., reflex cytology) in women where underlying CIN2+ is extremely unlikely. HR PapilloCheck could be a suitable HPV detection assay for use in the cervical screening setting.

To describe the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and HIV-related factors on high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) and high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia lesions (CIN2+) among women living with HIV/AIDS (WLHA) in sub-Saharan Africa. : Prospective cohort of WLHA in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso (BF) and Johannesburg, South Africa (SA). Recruitment was stratified by ART status. : At baseline and endline (median 16 months), cervical samples, and biopsies were analyzed for HPV genotyping (InnoLiPA) and by histology. Logistic regression was used to estimate associations of ART and HIV-related factors with HR-HPV and CIN2+ outcomes, and all results presented are adjusted for baseline CD4 cell count. : Among 1238 enrolled WLHA (BF = 615; SA = 623), HR-HPV prevalence was 59.1% in BF and 79.1% in SA. CIN2+ prevalence was 5.8% in BF and 22.5% in SA. Compared with long-duration ART users (>2 years), HR-HPV prevalence was higher among short-duration ART users [≤2 years; adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) = 1.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.47] in BF, and CIN2+ prevalence was higher among short-duration ART users [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.99, 95% CI 1.12-3.54) and ART-naive participants (aOR = 1.87, 95% CI 1.11-3.17) in SA. Among 963 (77.8%) women seen at endline, HR-HPV persistence was 41.1% in BF and 30.2% in SA; CIN2+ incidence over 16-months was 1.2% in BF and 5.8% in SA. HR-HPV persistence was associated with being ART-naive in BF (aPR = 1.89, 95% CI 1.26-2.83), and with short-duration ART use (aPR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.11-2.86) and HIV-1 plasma viral load at least 1000 copies/ml (aPR = 2.87, 95% CI 1.63-5.05) in SA. CIN2+ incidence was reduced among women on ART in SA (aOR = 0.39, 95% CI 0.15-1.01). : Prolonged and effective ART is important in controlling HR-HPV and the development of CIN2+.

Dr Egilman and colleagues claim our report1 implies that chrysotile does not cause mesothelioma. So did the International Chrysotile Association, the website of which highlighted our paper with the misleading headline ‘reliable scientific data confirms negligible role of chrysotile in UK patients with asbestos-related lung disease’.2 Our results are consistent with the strong evidence that chrysotile did not cause a large proportion of UK mesotheliomas, but they certainly do not show that the risk is negligible. We said ‘the rapid clearance of chrysotile from the lung with a half-life of a few months explains its virtual absence in our samples, and implies that we cannot estimate its effects except by noting that amphibole lung burdens account very well …

Background The additional sensitivity of HPV testing compared with cytology could permit extended cervical screening intervals. We wished to determine, through a further (third) round of screening in the ARTISTIC trial, the protection provided by a negative baseline HPV screen compared with that of cytology over a 6 year period. Methods Cumulative rates of CIN2 or worse (CIN2+) and CIN3 or worse (CIN3+) were correlated with baseline HPV status and cytology. HPV was detected using the Hybrid Capture 2 (Qiagen) assay for high risk types and genotyped using the Linear Array (Roche) and Papillocheck (Greiner) assays. LBC was performed using ThinPrep (Hologic). Findings Round 3 included 8,873 women of whom 6,337 had been screened in both rounds 1 and 2 and 2,536 had not been screened since round 1. The median duration of follow-up was 72.7 months. The cumulative rate of CIN2+ over three rounds was 3.88% (95%CI 3.59%, 4.17%) overall; 2.39% in round 1, 0.78% in round 2 and 0.74% in round 3. Cumulative rates by baseline status were 20.53% (95%CI 19.04%, 22.08%) for abnormal cytology, 20.12% (95%CI 18.68%, 21.61%) for HPV detection, 1.41% (95%CI 1.19%, 1.65%) for negative cytology and 0.87% (95%CI 0.70%, 1.06%) for a negative HPV test. In HPV negative women aged over 50 the cumulative rate was 0.16% (95%CI 0.07%, 0.34%). Women who were HPV positive/cytology negative at entry had a cumulative CIN2+ rate of 7.73% (95%CI 6.29%, 9.36%) over 6 years, twice the overall rate. Interpretation A negative HPV test was significantly more protective than normal cytology over three rounds. The findings of this extension of ARTISTIC suggest that the screening interval could be extended to 6 years if HPV testing replaced cytology as the primary screening test.

We present data on the use of the Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) test for the detection of high-risk human papillomavirus (HR HPV) with different thresholds for positivity within a primary screening setting and as a method of triage for low-grade cytology. In the ARTISTIC population-based trial, 18,386 women were screened by cytology and for HPV. Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia lesions of grade two and higher (CIN2+ lesions) were identified for 453 women within 30 months of an abnormal baseline sample. When a relative light unit/cutoff (RLU/Co) ratio of > or = 1 was used as the threshold for considering an HC2 result positive, 15.6% of results were positive, and the proportion of CIN2+ lesions in this group was 14.7%. The relative sensitivity for CIN2+ lesion detection was 93.4%. When an RLU/Co ratio of > or = 2 was used as the threshold, there was a 2.5% reduction in positivity, with an increase in the proportion of CIN2+ lesions detected. The relative sensitivity decreased slightly, to 90.3%. Among women with low-grade cytology, HPV prevalences were 43.7% and 40.3% at RLU/Co ratios of > or = 1 and > or = 2, respectively. The proportions of CIN2+ lesions detected were 17.3% and 18.0%, with relative sensitivities of 87.7% at an RLU/Co ratio of > or = 1 and 84.2% at an RLU/Co ratio of > or = 2. At an RLU/Co ratio of > or = 1, 68.3% of HC2-positive results were confirmed by the Roche line blot assay, compared to 77.2% of those at an RLU/Co ratio of > or = 2. Fewer HC2-positive results were confirmed for 35- to 64-year-olds (50.3% at an RLU/Co ratio of > or = 1 and 63.2% at an RLU/Co ratio of > 2) than for 20- to 34-year-olds (78.7% at an RLU/Co ratio of > or = 1 and 83.7% at an RLU/Co ratio of > 2). If the HC2 test is used for routine screening as an initial test or as a method of triage for low-grade cytology, we would suggest increasing the threshold for positivity from the RLU/Co ratio of > or = 1, recommended by the manufacturer, to an RLU/Co ratio of > or = 2, since this study has shown that a beneficial balance between relative sensitivity and the proportion of CIN2+ lesions detected is achieved at this threshold.

To evaluate the effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) testing in primary cervical screening. This was a cross-sectional study from the recruitment phase of a prospective randomised trial. Women were screened for HPV in addition to routine cervical cytology testing. Greater Manchester, attendees at routine NHS Cervical Screening Programme. In all, 24 510 women aged 20-64 screened with liquid-based cytology (LBC) and HPV testing at entry. HPV testing in primary cervical screening. Type-specific HPV prevalence rates are presented in relation to age as well as cytological and histological findings at entry. In all, 24 510 women had adequate cytology and HPV results. Cytology results at entry were: 87% normal, 11% borderline or mild, 1.1% moderate and 0.6% severe dyskaryosis or worse. Prevalence of HPV decreased sharply with age, from 40% at age 20-24 to 12% at 35-39 and 7% or less above age 50. It increased with cytological grade, from 10% of normal cytology and 31% of borderline to 70% mild, 86% moderate, and 96% of severe dyskaryosis or worse. HPV 16 or HPV 18 accounted for 64% of infections in women with severe or worse cytology, and one or both were found in 61% of women with severe dyskaryosis but in only 2.2% of those with normal cytology. The majority of young women in Greater Manchester have been infected with a high-risk HPV by the age of 30. HPV testing is practicable as a primary routine screening test, but in women aged under 30 years, this would lead to a substantial increase in retesting and referral rates. HPV 16 and HPV 18 are more predictive of underlying disease, but other HPV types account for 30% of high-grade disease.

Summary Background Recent reports suggest that the reduction in mortality achieved by the UK national cervical screening programme is too small to justify its financial and psychosocial costs, except perhaps in a few high-risk women. Methods We analysed trends in mortality before 1988, when the British national screening programme was launched, to estimate what future trends in cervical cancer mortality would have been without any screening. Findings Cervical cancer mortality in England and Wales in women younger than 35 years rose three-fold from 1967 to 1987. By 1988, incidence in this age-range was among the highest in the world despite substantial opportunistic screening. Since national screening was started in 1988, this rising trend has been reversed. Interpretation Cervical screening has prevented an epidemic that would have killed about one in 65 of all British women born since 1950 and culminated in about 6000 deaths per year in this country. However, these estimates are subject to substantial uncertainty, particularly in relation to the effects of oral contraceptives and changes in sexual behaviour. 80% or more of these deaths (up to 5000 deaths per year) are likely to be prevented by screening, which means that about 100000 (one in 80) of the 8 million British women born between 1951 and 1970 will be saved from premature death by the cervical screening programme at a cost per life saved of about £36 000. The birth cohort trends also provide strong evidence that the death rate throughout life is substantially lower in women who were first screened when they were younger.

Commentary on: Dijkstra MG, van Zummeren M, Rozendaal L, et al . Safety of extending screening intervals beyond five years in cervical screening programmes with testing for high-risk human papillomavirus: 14-year follow-up of population-based randomised cohort in the Netherlands. BMJ 2016;355:i4924. The cervical screening programmes in the UK and the Netherlands are replacing cytology by human papillomavirus (HPV) testing. In the Netherlands, women will be screened routinely at ages 30, 35, 40, 50 and 60 years. In the UK, a decision on screening frequency has yet to be made by the National Screening Committee. Currently British women are screened with cytology every 3 years at ages 25–49 and every 5 years at ages 50–64. Pooled results of four randomised controlled trials in Europe showed that HPV testing reduces cervical cancer risk.1 The British ARTISTIC trial2 and several other studies have also …

International audience; OBJECTIVES:To compare the Hybrid Capture 2 human papillomaviruses (HPV) DNA assay (HC2) and the INNO-LiPA HPV Genotyping Extra assay (INNO-LiPA) for cervical cancer screening in HIV-1-infected African women.DESIGN:The tests were compared for agreement in detecting high-risk HPV (hr-HPV) and performance to detect squamous intraepithelial lesions (SIL), by cytology, and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, by histology, in cervical samples from 1224 women in Burkina Faso (N = 604) and South Africa (N = 620).RESULTS:When considering the 13 hr-HPV types detected by HC2, 634 (51.8%) and 849 (69.4%) samples were positive by HC2 and INNO-LiPA, respectively. Agreement between assays was 73.9% [adjusted kappa coefficient value, 0.44 (95% confidence interval: 0.43 to 0.53)]. Agreement improved with analysis restricted to women with high-grade cervical lesions [adjusted kappa coefficient value, 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.74 to 0.91)]. The prevalence of hr-HPV, as determined by HC2 and INNO-LiPA, was 34.5% and 54.5%, respectively, in samples with normal cytology, 48.0% and 68.0%, respectively, in samples with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance, 51.8% and 75.2%, respectively, in samples with low-grade SIL, and 86.3% and 89.8%, respectively, in samples with high-grade SIL/atypical squamous cells that cannot exclude HSIL. Sensitivity, specificity, positive, and negative predictive values for the diagnosis of histological high-grade lesions (CIN2+) were 88.8%, 55.2%, 24.7% and 96.7%, and 92.5%, 35.1%, 19.1% and 96.6% for HC2 and INNO-LiPA, respectively.CONCLUSIONS:HC2 has lower analytical sensitivity but higher specificity than INNO-LiPA for diagnosing high-grade lesions; the 2 tests presented a comparable clinical sensitivity. HC2 might be suitable for cervical cancer screening in HIV-1-infected African women, but its use in resource-limited settings merits to be further evaluated in comparison with other prevention strategies.

BACKGROUND: The ARTISTIC (A Randomised Trial In Screening To Improve Cytology) trial originally reported after two rounds of primary cervical screening with human papillomavirus (HPV). Extended follow-up of the randomised trial cohort through a third round could provide valuable insight into the duration of protection of a negative HPV test, which could allow extended screening intervals. If HPV primary screening is to be considered in the national programme, then determining its cost-effectiveness is key, and a detailed economic analysis using ARTISTIC data is needed. AIMS/OBJECTIVES: (1) To determine the round 3 and cumulative rates of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 2 or worse (2+) and CIN grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) between the revealed and concealed arms of ARTISTIC after three screening rounds over 6 years. (2) To compare the cumulative incidence of CIN2+ over three screening rounds following negative screening cytology with that following negative baseline HPV. (3) To determine whether or not HPV screening could safely extend the screening interval from 3 to 6 years. (4) To study the potential clinical utility of an increased cut-off of 2 relative light unit/mean control (RLU/Co) for Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) and HPV genotyping in primary cervical screening. (5) To determine the potential impact of HPV vaccination with Cervarix? in terms of preventing abnormal cytology and CIN2+. (6) To determine the cost-effectiveness of HPV primary screening compared with current practice using cervical cytology in England. DESIGN: The ARTISTIC study cohort was recalled for a third round of screening 3 years after round 2 and 6 years following their enrolment to the study. Both arms of the original trial used a single protocol during round 3. SETTING: ARTISTIC study cohort undergoing cervical screening in primary care in Greater Manchester, UK. PARTICIPANTS: Between July 2007 and September 2009, 8873 women participated in round 3; 6337 had been screened in round 2 and 2536 had not been screened since round 1. INTERVENTIONS: All women underwent liquid-based cytology and HPV testing and genotyping. Colposcopy was offered to women with moderate dyskaryosis or worse and with HPV-positive mild dyskaryosis/borderline changes. Women with negative cytology or HPV-negative mild dyskaryosis/borderline changes were returned to routine recall. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Principal outcomes were cumulative rates of CIN2+ over three screening rounds by cytology and HPV status at entry; HPV type specific rates of CIN2+; effect of age on outcomes correlated with cytology and HPV status; comparison of HC2 cut-off RLU/Co of both 1 and 2; and cost-effectiveness of HPV primary screening. RESULTS: The median duration of follow-up was 72.7 months in round 3. Over the three screening rounds, there was no significant difference in CIN2+ [odds ratio (OR): 1.06, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89 to 1.26, p?=?0.5)] or CIN3+ (OR: 0.90, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.14, p?=?0.4) rates between the trial arms (revealed vs. concealed). Overall, 16% of women were HC2 positive at entry, decreasing from 40% in women aged 20-24 years to around 7% in women aged over 50 years. Abnormal cytology rates at entry were 13% for borderline+ and 2% for moderate+ cytology. Following positive cytology at entry, the cumulative rate of CIN2+ was 20.5%, and was 20.1% following a HPV-positive result at baseline. The cumulative CIN2+ rate for women who were HPV negative at baseline was only 0.87% (95% CI 0.70% to 1.06%) after three rounds of screening, significantly lower than that for women with negative cytology, which was 1.41% (95% CI 1.19% to 1.65%). Women who were HPV negative at baseline had similar protection from CIN2+ after 6 years as women who were cytology negative at baseline after 3 years. Women who were HPV positive/cytology negative at baseline had a cumulative CIN2+ rate at 6 years of 7.7%, significantly higher than that for women who were cytology positive/HPV negative (3.2%). Women who were HPV type 16 positive at baseline had a cumulative CIN2+ rate over three rounds of 43.6% compared with 20.1% for any HPV-positive test. Using a HC2 cut-off of RLU/Co???2 would maintain acceptable sensitivity and result in 16% fewer HPV-positive results. Typing data suggested that around 55-60% of high-grade cytology and CIN2+, but less than 25% of low-grade cytology, would be prevented by HPV vaccine given current rates of coverage in the UK national programme. For the cost-effectiveness analysis, most of the primary HPV strategies examined where HPV was used as the sole primary test were cost saving in both unvaccinated and vaccinated cohorts under baseline cost assumptions, with a 7-18% reduction in annual screening-associated costs in unvaccinated cohorts and a 9-22% reduction for vaccinated cohorts. Utilising partial genotyping at the primary screening stage to identify women with HPV 16/18 and referring them to colposcopy was the most effective strategy (barring co-testing, which is significantly more costly than any other strategies considered), resulting in 83 additional life-years per 100,000 women for unvaccinated women when compared with current practice, and similar life-years saved compared with current practice for vaccinated women. In unvaccinated cohorts, however, this genotyping strategy is predicted to result in a 20% increase in the number of colposcopies performed in England, although in vaccinated cohorts the number of colposcopy referrals was predicted to be lower than in current practice. For all strategies in which HPV is used as the sole primary screening test, decreasing the follow-up interval for intermediate-risk women from 24 to 12 months increased the overall effectiveness of primary HPV screening. In exploratory analysis, strategies for which cytology screening was retained until either age 30 or 35 years, and for which HPV testing was used at older ages, were predicted to be of higher costs and intermediate effectiveness than those associated with full implementation of primary HPV screening from age 25 years. However, this finding should be interpreted with caution as it depends on assumptions made about screening behaviour and compliance with recommendations at the 'switch over' point. CONCLUSIONS: HPV testing as an initial screen was significantly more protective over three rounds (6 years) than the current practice of cytology and the use of primary HPV screening could allow a safe lengthening of the screening interval. A substantial decrease in high-grade cytology and CIN2+ can be expected as a consequence of the HPV vaccination programme. A HC2 cut-off of 2RLU/Co instead of the manufacturer's recommended cut-off of 1 would be clinically beneficial in terms of an optimal balance between sensitivity and specificity. Modelled analysis predicts that primary HPV screening would be both more effective and cost saving compared with current practice with cervical cytology for a number of potential strategies in both unvaccinated and vaccinated cohorts. Compliance with surveillance and optimal management of HPV-positive/cytology-negative women after primary HPV screening is of key importance. Limitations of the economic investigation included the need to make assumptions around compliance with screening attendance and follow-up for longer screening intervals in the future, assumptions regarding maintenance of current uptake vaccination in the future, and assumptions regarding the stability of cost of HPV and cytology tests in the future. Detailed sensitivity analysis across a range of possible assumptions was conducted to address these issues. This study and the economic evaluation lend support to convert from cytology to HPV-based screening. Future work should include researching (i) the attitudes of women who test HPV positive/cytology negative, (ii) the value of complementary biomarkers and (iii) activities relevant to primary HPV screening in unvaccinated and vaccinated populations from the point of view of QALY assessment. STUDY REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN25417821.

Summary Background Testing for human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA is reportedly more sensitive than cytology for the detection of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN). The effectiveness of HPV testing in primary cervical screening was assessed in the ARTISTIC trial, which was done over two screening rounds approximately 3 years apart (2001–03 and 2004–07) by comparing liquid-based cytology (LBC) combined with HPV testing against LBC alone. Methods Women aged 20–64 years who were undergoing routine screening as part of the English National Health Service Cervical Screening Programme in Greater Manchester were randomly assigned (between July, 2001, and September, 2003) in a ratio of 3:1 to either combined LBC and HPV testing in which the results were revealed and acted on, or to combined LBC and HPV testing where the HPV result was concealed from the patient and investigator. The primary outcome was the detection rate of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) in the second screening round, analysed by intention to treat. This trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number ISRCTN25417821. Findings There were 24 510 eligible women at entry (18 386 in the revealed group, 6124 in the concealed group). In the first round of screening 233 women (1·27%) in the revealed group had CIN3+, compared with 80 (1·31%) women in the concealed group (odds ratio [OR] 0·97, 95% CI 0·75–1·25; p>0·2). There was an unexpectedly large drop in the proportion of women with CIN3+ between the first and second rounds of screening in both groups, at 0·25% (29 of 11 676) in the revealed group and 0·47% (18 of 3866 women) in the concealed group (OR 0·53, 95% CI 0·30–0·96; p=0·042). For both rounds combined, the proportion of women with CIN3+ were 1·51% (revealed) and 1·77% (concealed) (OR 0·85, 95% CI 0·67–1·08; p>0·2). Interpretation LBC combined with HPV testing resulted in a significantly lower detection rate of CIN3+ in the second round of screening compared with LBC screening alone, but the effect was small. Over the two screening rounds combined, co-testing did not detect a higher rate of CIN3+ or CIN2+ than LBC alone. Potential changes in screening methodology should be assessed over at least two screening rounds. Funding National Institute of Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Objective To test the hypothesis that reduced exposure to common infections in the first year of life increases the risk of developing acute lymphoblastic leukaemia. Design and setting The United Kingdom childhood cancer study (UKCCS) is a large population based case-control study of childhood cancer across 10 regions of the UK. Participants 6305 children (aged 2-14 years) without cancer; 3140 children with cancer (diagnosed 1991-6), of whom 1286 had acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). Main outcome measure Day care and social activity during the first year of life were used as proxies for potential exposure to infection in infancy. Results Increasing levels of social activity were associated with consistent reductions in risk of ALL; a dose-response trend was seen. When children whose mothers reported no regular activity outside the family were used as the reference group, odds ratios for increasing levels of activity were 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.62 to 0.87) for any social activity, 0.62 (0.51 to 0.75) for regular day care outside the home, and 0.48 (0.37 to 0.62) for formal day care (attendance at facility with at least four children at least twice a week) (P value for trend < 0.001). Although not as striking, results for non-ALL malignancies showed a similar pattern (P value for trend < 0.001). When children with non-ALL malignancies were taken as the reference group, a significant protective effect for ALL was seen only for formal day care (odds ratio = 0.69, 0.51 to 0.93; P = 0.02). Similar results were obtained for B cell precursor common ALL and other subgroups, as well as for cases diagnosed above and below age 5 years. Conclusion These results support the hypothesis that reduced exposure to infection in the first few months of life increases the risk of developing acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

Lifetime risks of common cancers among retinoblastoma survivors Background: Compared with the general population, carriers of germline mutations in RB1 who survive retinoblastoma (i.e., hereditary retinoblastoma survivors) are at increased risk of early-onset second cancers, particularly sarcomas, brain tumors, and melanoma. However, their risks for the epithelial cancers that commonly occur after age 50 years are not known. Methods: We used hospital records to identify British retinoblastoma survivors born between 1873 and 1950, a period when few British retinoblastoma patients received high-dose radiotherapy. Cancers and deaths were identified by linkage with national registration records. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: We could trace the cancer histories of 144 survivors of hereditary retinoblastoma. From age 25 to age 84, there were 58 subsequent cancers, for a cumulative cancer incidence of 68.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 48.0% to 87.4%) and a cumulative cancer mortality of 56.3% (95% CI = 40.5% to 73.3%). Only eight of the 58 cancers were of bone or soft tissue, in marked contrast to findings from contemporary studies of American patients treated with external beam radiotherapy, among whom most second tumors are sarcomas. Compared with the general population, hereditary retinoblastoma survivors had higher mortality from lung cancer (standardized mortality ratio [SMR] = 7.01, 95 % CI = 3.83 to 11.76), bladder cancer (SMR = 26.31, 95% CI = 8.54 to 61.41), and all other epithelial cancers combined (SMR = 3.29, 95% CI = 1.64 to 5.89). The overall standardized mortality ratio for epithelial cancer was inversely proportional to the approximate square of age (exponent of age -2.1, 95 % CI = -3.6 to -0.7), declining from 11.32 (95% CI 4.15 to 24.64) at age 25-44 to 2.83 (95% CI = 1.04 to 6.16) at age 65-84. Conclusions: Survivors of hereditary retinoblastoma who are not exposed to high-dose radiotherapy have a high lifetime risk of developing a late- onset epithelia] cancer. Most of the excess cancer risks in hereditary retinoblastoma survivors might be preventable by limiting exposures to DNA damaging agents (radiotherapy, tobacco, and UV light).

Objectifs Evaluer l’incidence, la persistance et la clairance des genotypes HPV a haut-risque (HR-HPV) chez des femmes africaines infectees par le VIH-1, leurs associations avec les lesions cervicales, et evaluer l’influence des facteurs lies au VIH. Population d’etude et methodes L’etude HARP ( HPV in Africa Reseach Partnership ) a suivi une cohorte de femmes seropositives âgees de 25–50 ans au Burkina Faso et en Afrique du Sud, dont deux-tiers prenaient des antiretroviraux (ARV). Le genotypage HPV a ete realise par INNO-LiPA l’analyse histologique des biopsies cervicales (CIN) a ete effectuee a l’inclusion et environ 16 mois plus tard. Resultats Les donnees completes de suivi, histologie et genotypage etaient disponibles pour 900 des 1 249 femmes incluses dans l’etude HARP. Ces femmes, d’âge median 35 ans (IQR 31–41), avaient une duree mediane de suivi de 16 mois (IQR 15,5–16,8). La prevalence de CIN2+ etait de 13 % a l’inclusion et de 6 % a M16. Parmi les 780 femmes qui n’avaient pas de lesions de haut grade ( L’incidence et la persistance des HR-HPV etaient plus elevees chez les femmes avec une numeration basse des CD4 a l’inclusion (40 % et 38 %, respectivement chez les femmes avec CD4 ≤ 200 cellules/μl ; contre 35 % et 33 % avec CD4 200–349 ; et 35 % et 30 % avec CD4 > 350) et, inversement la clairance des HR-HPV etait plus frequemment observee chez les femmes avec une numeration de CD4 plus elevee a l’inclusion, mais aucune de ces associations n’etait significative. Le developpement des CIN2+ etait fortement associe a la persistance d’infections HR-HPV (9 %, OR = 9,2 IC95 % 3,7–22,9), notamment les infections par HPV58 (21 %), HPV35 (18 %), HPV18 (14 %) et HPV16 (11 %). Conclusion L’acquisition et la persistance de genotypes HR-HPV sont tres frequentes parmi les femmes infectees par le VIH, et la persistance des infections sur 16 mois est liee au developpement de lesions CIN2+, en particulier pour les HPV58, −35, −18 et −16.

Introduction – objectifs Le test careHPV (Qiagen) est un test de detection de l’ADN des HPV a haut risque (HR-HPV) base sur l’hybridation d’un cocktail de sondes ciblant 14 HR-HPV (types 16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59, 66, et 68). Ce test a ete concu pour etre plus simple d’utilisation que le test HC2 et d’un cout plus abordable pour les pays a faible niveau de ressources. L’objectif de cette etude est d’evaluer les performances de careHPV pour le depistage des lesions cervicales de haut grade dans une population de femmes VIH+ en Afrique sub-saharienne. Population d’etude et methodes L’etude a ete realisee chez 1 052 femmes VIH+ enrolees dans l’etude HARP (HPV in Africa Research Partnership) : 492 au Burkina Faso (BF) et 560 en Afrique du Sud (AS). La detection des HR-HPV a 18 mois de suivi etait realisee par careHPV et la detection et genotypage des HPV par le test INNO-LiPA HPV genotyping Extra (Fujirebio). Toutes les participantes ont beneficie d’une inspection visuelle a l’acide acetique/Lugol, d’une cytologie cervicale et d’une colposcopie. Les femmes presentant un test careHPV positif, et/ou une anomalie a l’inspection visuelle, la cytologie ou la colposcopie ont eu une biopsie 4 quadrants et sur les lesions colposcopiquement observables pour analyse histologique. Resultats La prevalence de HR-HPV etait de 45,1 % par careHPV (BF : 46,5 %, AS : 43,8 %) et de 70,0 % par INNO-LiPA (BF : 67,9 %, AS : 72,0 %). La concordance entre careHPV et INNO-LiPA etait globalement de 62.5 %, mais etait de 93,5 % pour les femmes presentant une lesion histologique de haut grade (CIN2+). Un total de 62 (6,7 %) CIN2+ ont ete diagnostiquees : 10 (2,3 %) au BF et 52 (10,7 %) en AS. Les valeurs respectives de sensibilite, specificite, valeur predictive positive et valeur predictive negative etaient de 93,6 %, 58,2 %, 13,8 % et 99,2 % pour careHPV et de 96,8 %, 32,1 %, 9,2 % et 99,3 % pour INNO-LiPA. Conclusion La sensibilite analytique de careHPV est moins elevee que celle de INNO-LiPA mais les deux tests presentent une sensibilite et une valeur predictive negative similaires pour le diagnostic des CIN2+, avec une specificite plus elevee pour careHPV. Le test careHPV represente un outil bien adapte au depistage du cancer du col chez les femmes africaines infectees par le VIH.

Background To assess the prevalence, genotype distribution and risk factors for high-risk HPV among HIV-positive African women, and associations with cervical histological lesions. Methods The HARP study enrolled HIV-positive women aged 25–50 in Burkina Faso (BF) and South Africa (SA). A stratified sampling strategy was used, with 2/3 of women on ART. Cervical HPV genotyping was performed using InnoLipa. Four-quadrant cervical biopsies were obtained among women with abnormalities detected by at least one test or by colposcopy. Results 628 and 624 women were enrolled in BF and SA, respectively. The distribution of CD4+ count (cells/µL) was similar in both sites: 68% with CD4+ ≥ 350 and 10% with CD4+ Conclusions HR-HPV prevalence is high among HIV-positive women with genotype distribution similar in both countries. HR-HPV prevalence is associated with young age and lower CD4+ count. Whilst HPV52 is the most prevalent type, HPV16 is most strongly associated with increasing lesion severity.

Background To assess the prevalence of Mycoplasma genitalium (MG) among HIV-positive African women and its associations with cervical infections and disease, other STI signs and CD4+ counts. Methods The HARP study aims to evaluate cervical cancer screening tests among HIV-positive women aged 25–50 in Burkina Faso (BF) and South Africa (SA). In addition, real time PCR assays were used to detect Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG), Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Trichomonas vaginalis (TV), and MG, using Sacace RT-PCRs in BF, and multiplex PCR followed by confirmatory APTIMA ® assays for NG/CT and Sacace RT-PCR for TV/MG in SA. HPV genotyping was performed using Digene ® HC2 assay. Results 628 women were enrolled in BF and 624 in SA, two-thirds of whom were on antiretroviral therapy. The distribution of CD4+ count (cells/µL) was similar in both sites: 68% with CD4+ ≥ 350 and 10% with CD4+ T vaginalis (aOR = 1.7, P = 0.06) but not with any other particular STI infection or syndrome; and tended to increase with decreasing CD4+ count (P = 0.13). Conclusions MG prevalence is relatively high among these HIV-positive African women and is associated with younger age, trichomoniasis and marginally with CD4. Table. Multivariate analysis showing factors originally associated in univariate analysis with Mycoplasma genitalium in Burkina Faso and South Africa

www.thelancet.com Vol 364 October 23, 2004 1483 Harms and benefits of screening to prevent cervical cancer Julian Peto and colleagues (July 17, p 249) present an excellent review of trends in cervical cancer mortality, and warn about the high rates observed in British women. However, both their projection of a hypothetical cervical cancer epidemic without screening and their calculated costs per life saved are an unscientific exercise in screening advocacy. First, Peto and colleagues assume that “by 1978, about 40% of cervical cancers in women younger than 40 years were already being prevented”. The selective reference to a single paper from 1985 turns a weak hypothesis, based on a short time series of 15-year cancer incidence (1963–78), into a fact. The actual report presents a time series of mortality of 50 years (1953–2002); figure 2 suggests little change before 1988. This finding is confirmed by another article referenced by Peto and colleagues, sadly omitting the fact that screening had had no impact on mortality before 1988. To obtain a 40% incidence reduction, screening needs to be very effective, with a high coverage and a good quality of Papanicolaou (Pap) testing. Opportunistic screening overscreens women at low risk, misses women at high risk, and shows a high variability in the quality of Pap test. Second, Peto and co-workers assume that cervical cancer risk in the future is a constant, unchanging one. The cohort born in 1952 was aged 16 years in 1968, the beginning of the sexual revolution. The advent of AIDS changed sexual behaviour radically. Female gonorrhoea dropped from about 25 000 at the end of the 1970s to 4000 in 1995. Peto and colleagues refer to the recent doubling of gonorrhoea. It increased again to 6000, which is less than a quarter of what it was 25 years ago; half of these new cases arise in black ethnic groups. Third, Peto and colleagues ignore the considerable costs of overdiagnosis and overtreatment, which are part of cervical cancer screening. 1% of the women might be saved, at the costs of overdiagnosing and overtreatment in 40%. While The Lancet attacks the pharmaceutical industry for only giving the good news and withholding the bad news, the bad news of cancer screening is rarely published. That the screening industry still withholds correct information on both the benefits and the harms of cancer screening, stated as number needed to treat (mortality averted) and number needed to harm (additional diagnostic and therapeutic interventions generated), is unacceptable. Peto and co-workers correctly point to a serious failure of public health in the past: a failure to maintain sexual hygiene. But, they further assume that public health remains ignorant and impotent. A-B-C campaigns (Abstain, Be faithful, use Condoms) are not only for Africans; residents of the UK did make good use of sensible sexual health promotion, witnessed by the steep decline of sexually transmitted diseases. A rational cervical cancer prevention programme would be ABCD, with the added D for Detect those at high risk. Such a programme would save resources, prevent anxiety and unnecessary treatment in many women, improve primary prevention of all sexually transmitted diseases, including AIDS, and improve detection, surveillance, and treatment of women who are truly at risk.