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A comprehensive assessment of European forest-based biomass harvest potentials, their future utilization and implications on international wood product markets and forest carbon dynamics requires the capability to model forest resource development as well as global markets for wood-based commodities with sufficient geographical and product detail and, most importantly, their interactions. To this aim, we apply a model framework fully integrating a European forest resource model and a global economic forest sector model. In a business-as-usual (BaU) scenario, European Union harvests increase seven percent by 2030 compared to past levels (485 million m3 on 2000-2012 average and 517 million m3 in 2030). The subsequent annual carbon stock change is a ten percent reduction by 2030 compared to 2000-2012 average (equal to 119.3 Tg C yr-1), corresponding to decreasing carbon-dioxide removal by the European forests. A second, high mobilization scenario (HM), characterized by the full utilization of the potential wood supply and a doubling of EU wood pellets consumption, was designed to explore potential impacts on forest carbon dynamics and international wood product markets under intensive exploitation of biomass resources. In the HM scenario, harvest increases by 55% (754 million m3 in 2030) compared to the BaU scenario. Fuelwood accounts for this increase in harvest levels as overall competition effects from increased wood pellets consumption outweighs synergies for material uses of wood, resulting in slightly reduced harvests of industrial roundwood. As expected, this increasing harvest level would significantly impair carbon-dioxide forest sequestration from the atmosphere in the medium term (-83% in 2030, compared to 2000-2012 average).

Made available in DSpace on 2020-12-10T19:45:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2020-02-01 Fundacao de Apoio a Pesquisa do Estado de Mato Grosso Rede ILPF Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria (Embrapa) Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the main terrestrial carbon reservoir. The spatial distribution of SOC is mainly regulated by environmental factors and anthropogenic activity. Historically, land-use change has been responsible for much of the world's greenhouse gas emissions. However, carbon storage can be improved through agricultural management, either by increasing carbon inputs through higher crop yields or by delaying the release of carbon into the atmosphere. Therefore, it is essential to correctly choose which cover crops to use and how long these crops will remain in the crop rotation system. In order to clarify these issues, the objective of this work was to evaluate the chemical quality and changes in soil carbon stock between no-tillage and soybean/com crop succession systems and integrated crop-livestock systems. The study was carried out in Querencia (MT), Brazil, located in the Cerrado/Amazon ecotone. The integrated systems were studied between 2007 and 2014. These systems followed annual crop rotation and forage rotation, and were laid out as a consortium or were isolated, with the aim of producing grain and meat. In order to determine soil chemical properties, 170 sampling plots were randomized among the treatments. The highest carbon values were observed in the integrated crop-livestock systems (ICL), probably due to higher inputs of organic residues. Crop rotation with plants of different families allowed better land use and soil exploration. However, integrated production systems comprising longer pasture periods, no-tillage, and soybean/corn crop succession decreased soil carbon. When comparing carbon stocks from 2010 to 2014, only integrated production systems ICL2 and ICL3 were able to increase carbon stocks. Our results highlight the importance of length of growing and correct choice of cover crops in maintaining SOC stocks, and thus provide insights to improve SOC stocks in agricultural land in Brazil's main producing region. Univ Sao Paulo, Luiz de Queiroz Coll Agr, Dept Soil Sci, BR-13418900 Piracicaba, Brazil Univ Fed Mato Grosso UFMT, Inst Ciencias Agr & Ambientais, BR-78557267 Sinop, Brazil Brazilian Agr Res Comporat Embrapa, BR-70770901 Brasilia, DF, Brazil Sao Paulo State Univ Julio de Mesquita Filho, Dept Plant Hlth Rural Engn & Soils, BR-15385000 Ilha Solteira, Brazil Brazilian Agr Res Comporat Embrapa, BR-78550970 Sinop, Brazil Sao Paulo State Univ Julio de Mesquita Filho, Dept Soils & Fertilizers, BR-14884900 Jaboticabal, Brazil Brazilian Agr Res Comporat Embrapa, BR-86001970 Londrina, Parana, Brazil Sao Paulo State Univ Julio de Mesquita Filho, Dept Plant Hlth Rural Engn & Soils, BR-15385000 Ilha Solteira, Brazil Sao Paulo State Univ Julio de Mesquita Filho, Dept Soils & Fertilizers, BR-14884900 Jaboticabal, Brazil Fundacao de Apoio a Pesquisa do Estado de Mato Grosso: FAPEMAT. 0561074/2016

[EN] The expected increased share of renewables due to the ongoing energy transition may reduce the estimated potential mitigation effect of wood. Here, we estimated the climate change mitigation effect for five scenarios of wood products use in Europe applying dynamic substitution factors embracing a future energy mix with an increasing share of renewables in accordance with the emission reductions necessary to achieve the Paris Agreement targets. Our innovative modelling approach also included the elimination of eternal recycling loops, the inclusion of more realistic wood use cascading scenarios, and adoption of a more realistic marginal (ceteris paribus) substitution approach. Results show that the mitigation effect derived from material substitution is 33% lower in 2030 than previously predicted, and even 96% lower in 2100, showing its expiry date by the end of the century. Nevertheless, the mitigation effect of wood product use, in addition to mitigation by forests, may represent 3.3% of the European emission reduction targets by 2030., We thank Estelle Vial and AnneLaure Levet for the help provided to adapt the substitution factors from FORMIT project (EU grant no. 311970) to our needs and EOS for providing access to their confidential work. We also thank anonymous reviewers for providing thoughtful comments on the manuscript. This research was supported by the EU through the Marie Curie Initial Training Networks (ITN) action CASTLE, grant agreement no. 316020. The content of this publication reflects only the authors' views, and the European Union is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

Short rotation plantations are often considered as holding vast potentials for future global bioenergy supply. In contrast to raising biomass harvests in forests, purpose‐grown biomass does not interfere with forest carbon (C) stocks. Provided that agricultural land can be diverted from food and feed production without impairing food security, energy plantations on current agricultural land appear as a beneficial option in terms of renewable, climate‐friendly energy supply. However, instead of supporting energy plantations, land could also be devoted to natural succession. It then acts as a long‐term C sink which also results in C benefits. We here compare the sink strength of natural succession on arable land with the C saving effects of bioenergy from plantations. Using geographically explicit data on global cropland distribution among climate and ecological zones, regionally specific C accumulation rates are calculated with IPCC default methods and values. C savings from bioenergy are given for a range of displacement factors (DFs), acknowledging the varying efficiency of bioenergy routes and technologies in fossil fuel displacement. A uniform spatial pattern is assumed for succession and bioenergy plantations, and the considered timeframes range from 20 to 100 years. For many parameter settings—in particular, longer timeframes and high DFs—bioenergy yields higher cumulative C savings than natural succession. Still, if woody biomass displaces liquid transport fuels or natural gas‐based electricity generation, natural succession is competitive or even superior for timeframes of 20–50 years. This finding has strong implications with climate and environmental policies: Freeing land for natural succession is a worthwhile low‐cost natural climate solution that has many co‐benefits for biodiversity and other ecosystem services. A considerable risk, however, is C stock losses (i.e., emissions) due to disturbances or land conversion at a later time., How can spare cropland be used more efficiently in terms of climate change mitigation? By growing short rotation coppice for bioenergy or allowing cropland to revert to its natural state. We show that the more beneficial option depends on the timeframe considered, biophysical conditions in the considered region, upstream emissions of fuel supply, and the efficiency of the particular bioenergy route in displacing fossil fuels.