1. Mathematical modelling of a seasonal use-case for the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine
- Author
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Thompson, H, Hogan, A, Walker, P, Winskill, P, Zongo, I, Sagara, I, Tinto, H, Ouedraogo, J-B, Dicko, A, Chandramohan, D, Greenwood, B, Cairns, M, Ghani, A, Medical Research Council (MRC), and Imperial College LOndon
- Subjects
0605 Microbiology ,1117 Public Health and Health Services - Abstract
Background: A recent clinical trial of seasonal RTS,S/AS01E (RTS,S) vaccination showed that vaccination was non-inferior to seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) in preventing clinical malaria. The combination of these two interventions provided significant additional protection against clinical and severe malaria outcomes. Impact projections of this novel approach to RTS,S vaccination in seasonal transmission settings for longer time frames and across a range of epidemiological settings are needed to inform policy recommendations. Methods: We used a mathematical model of malaria transmission to assess the potential impact of an age-based or seasonally targeted RTS,S vaccination schedule in seasonal transmission settings in both the absence and presence of SMC. Estimates of cases and deaths averted in a population of 100,000 children aged 0-5 years were calculated over a 15-year time horizon for a range of levels of Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence in 2–10-year-olds and over two West African seasonality archetypes. Findings: Seasonally targeting RTS,S resulted in greater absolute reductions in malaria cases and deaths compared to an age-based strategy, averting between 32%-100% more clinical cases dependent on seasonality and transmission intensity. We predict that adding seasonally targeted RTS,S to SMC would reduce clinical incidence by up to an additional 36%-56% in children under five compared with SMC alone. Transmission season duration was a key determinant of intervention impact, with the advantage of adding RTS,S to SMC predicted to be smaller with shorter transmission seasons. Interpretation: RTS,S vaccination in seasonal settings could be a valuable additional tool to existing interventions, with seasonal delivery maximising impact relative to an age-based approach. Decisions surrounding deployment strategies of RTS,S in such settings will need to consider the local and regional variations in seasonality, current levels of other interventions and potential achievable RTS,S coverage. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, UK Foreign Commonwealth & Development Office, The Wellcome Trust and The Royal society.
- Published
- 2022