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MDM2-SNP309 (rs2279744), a common genetic modifier of cancer incidence in Li-Fraumeni syndrome, modifies risk, age of onset, or prognosis in a variety of cancers. Melanoma incidence and outcomes vary by sex, and although SNP309 exerts an effect on the estrogen receptor, no consensus exists on its effect on melanoma. MDM2 and MDM4 restrain p53-mediated tumor suppression, independently or together. We investigated SNP309, an a priori MDM4-rs4245739, and two coinherited variants, in a population-based cohort of 3663 primary incident melanomas. Per-allele and per-haplotype (MDM2_SNP309-SNP285; MDM4_rs4245739-rs1563828) odds ratios (OR) for multiple-melanoma were estimated with logistic regression models. Hazard ratios (HR) for melanoma death were estimated with Cox proportional hazards models. In analyses adjusted for covariates, females carrying MDM4-rs4245739*C were more likely to develop multiple melanomas (ORper-allele = 1.25, 95% CI 1.03-1.51, and Ptrend = 0.03), while MDM2-rs2279744*G was inversely associated with melanoma-death (HRper-allele = 0.63, 95% CI 0.42-0.95, and Ptrend = 0.03). We identified 16 coinherited expression quantitative loci that control the expression of MDM2, MDM4, and other genes in the skin, brain, and lungs. Our results suggest that MDM4/MDM2 variants are associated with the development of subsequent primaries and with the death of melanoma in a sex-dependent manner. Further investigations of the complex MDM2/MDM4 motif, and its contribution to the tumor microenvironment and observed associations, are warranted.

Statistical inference on the cancer-site specificities of collective ultra-rare whole genome somatic mutations is an open problem. Traditional statistical methods cannot handle whole-genome mutation data due to their ultra-high-dimensionality and extreme data sparsity -- e.g., >30 million unique variants are observed in the ~1700 whole-genome tumor dataset considered herein, of which >99% variants are encountered only once. To harness information in these rare variants we have recently proposed the "hidden genome model", a formal multilevel multi-logistic model that mines information in ultra-rare somatic variants to characterize tumor types. The model condenses signals in rare variants through a hierarchical layer leveraging contexts of individual mutations. The model is currently implemented using consistent, scalable point estimation techniques that can handle 10s of millions of variants detected across thousands of tumors. Our recent publications have evidenced its impressive accuracy and attributability at scale. However, principled statistical inference from the model is infeasible due to the volume, correlation, and non-interpretability of the mutation contexts. In this paper we propose a novel framework that leverages topic models from the field of computational linguistics to induce an *interpretable dimension reduction* of the mutation contexts used in the model. The proposed model is implemented using an efficient MCMC algorithm that permits rigorous full Bayesian inference at a scale that is orders of magnitude beyond the capability of out-of-the-box high-dimensional multi-class regression methods and software. We employ our model on the Pan Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) dataset, and our results reveal interesting novel insights., Keywords: multilevel Bayesian models; whole genome data; rare somatic variants; topic model; context learning; Markov chain Monte Carlo

Supplemental material, sj-pdf-1-smm-10.1177_09622802211032704 for Validity of a method for identifying disease subtypes that are etiologically heterogeneous by Emily C Zabor, Venkatraman E Seshan, Shuang Wang and Colin B Begg in Statistical Methods in Medical Research

Supplemental material, sj-pdf-1-smm-10.1177_09622802211032704 for Validity of a method for identifying disease subtypes that are etiologically heterogeneous by Emily C Zabor, Venkatraman E Seshan, Shuang Wang and Colin B Begg in Statistical Methods in Medical Research

Evidence on the relationship between the vitamin D pathway and outcomes in melanoma is growing, although it is not always clear. We investigated the impact of measured levels of sun exposure at diagnosis on associations of vitamin D receptor gene (VDR) polymorphisms and melanoma-death in 3336 incident primary melanoma cases. Interactions between six SNPs and a common 3′ end haplotype were significant (p

A rare germline variant in the microphthalmia-associated transcription factor (MITF) gene, E318K, has been reported as associated with melanoma. We confirmed its independent association with melanoma [odds ratio (OR) 1.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.1, 2.7, P = 0.03]; adjusted for age, sex, center, age × sex interaction, pigmentation characteristics, family history of melanoma, and nevus density). In stratified analyses, carriage of MITF E318K was associated with melanoma more strongly in people with dark hair than fair hair (P for interaction, 0.03) and in those with no moles than some or many moles (P for interaction

Although nevus count is an established risk factor for melanoma, relationships between nevus number and patient and tumor characteristics have not been well studied and the influence of nevus count on melanoma-specific survival is equivocal. Using data from the Genes, Environment and Melanoma (GEM) study, a large population-based study of primary cutaneous melanoma, we evaluated associations between number of nevi and patient features, including sun-sensitivity summarized in a phenotypic index, and tumor characteristics. We also assessed the association of nevus count with melanoma-specific survival. Higher nevus counts were independently and positively associated with male gender and younger age at diagnosis, and they were inversely associated with lentigo maligna histology. We observed a borderline significant trend of poorer melanoma-specific survival with increasing quartile of nevus count, but little or no association between number of nevi and pigmentary phenotypic characteristics or prognostic tumor features.

Recent studies, including genome-wide association studies, have identified several putative low-penetrance susceptibility loci for melanoma. We sought to determine their generalizability to genetic predisposition for multiple primary melanoma in the international population-based Genes, Environment, and Melanoma (GEM) Study. GEM is a case-control study of 1,206 incident cases of multiple primary melanoma and 2,469 incident first primary melanoma participants as the control group. We investigated the odds of developing multiple primary melanoma for 47 SNPs from 21 distinct genetic regions previously reported to be associated with melanoma. ORs and 95% confidence intervals were determined using logistic regression models adjusted for baseline features (age, sex, age by sex interaction, and study center). We investigated univariable models and built multivariable models to assess independent effects of SNPs. Eleven SNPs in 6 gene neighborhoods (TERT/CLPTM1L, TYRP1, MTAP, TYR, NCOA6, and MX2) and a PARP1 haplotype were associated with multiple primary melanoma. In a multivariable model that included only the most statistically significant findings from univariable modeling and adjusted for pigmentary phenotype, back nevi, and baseline features, we found TERT/CLPTM1L rs401681 (P = 0.004), TYRP1 rs2733832 (P = 0.006), MTAP rs1335510 (P = 0.0005), TYR rs10830253 (P = 0.003), and MX2 rs45430 (P = 0.008) to be significantly associated with multiple primary melanoma, while NCOA6 rs4911442 approached significance (P = 0.06). The GEM Study provides additional evidence for the relevance of these genetic regions to melanoma risk and estimates the magnitude of the observed genetic effect on development of subsequent primary melanoma.

Melanocortin-1 receptor (MC1R) is a marker of melanoma risk in populations of European ancestry. However, MC1R effects on survival are much less studied. We investigated associations between variation at MC1R and survival in an international, population-based series of single primary melanoma patients enrolled into the Genes, Environment, and Melanoma study. MC1R genotype data was available for 2,200 participants with a first incident primary melanoma diagnosis. We estimated the association of MC1R genotypes with melanoma-specific survival (i.e., death caused by melanoma) and overall survival using COX proportional hazards modeling, adjusting for established prognostic factors for melanoma. We also conducted stratified analyses by Breslow thickness, tumor site, phenotypic index, and age. In addition, we evaluated haplotypes involving polymorphisms near the Agouti signaling protein gene (ASIP) locus for their impacts on survival. Melanoma-specific survival was inversely associated with carriage of MC1R variants in the absence of consensus alleles compared to carriage of at least one consensus allele (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.60; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.40, 0.90). MC1R results for overall survival were consistent with no association. We did not observe any statistical evidence of heterogeneity of effect estimates in stratified analyses. We observed increased hazard of melanoma-specific death among carriers of the risk haplotype TG near the ASIP locus (HR = 1.37; 95% CI: 0.91, 2.04) when compared to carriers of the most common GG haplotype. Similar results were noted for overall survival. Upon examining the ASIP TG/TG diplotype, we observed considerably increased hazard of melanoma-specific death (HR = 5.11; 95% CI: 1.88, 13.88) compared to carriers of the most common GG/GG diplotype. Our data suggest improved melanoma-specific survival among carriers of two inherited MC1R variants.

IMPORTANCE Previous studies have reported that histopathologically amelanotic melanoma is associated with poorer survival than pigmented melanoma; however, small numbers of amelanotic melanomas, selected populations, lack of centralized pathologic review, or no adjustment for stage limit the interpretation or generalization of results from prior studies.OBJECTIVE To compare melanoma-specific survival between patients with histopathologically amelanotic and those with pigmented melanoma in a large international population-based study.DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Survival analysis with a median follow-up of 7.6 years.The study population comprised 2995 patients with 3486 invasive primary melanomas centrally scored for histologic pigmentation from the Genes, Environment, and Melanoma(GEM) Study, which enrolled incident cases of melanoma diagnosed in 1998 through 2003 from international population-based cancer registries.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Clinicopathologic predictors and melanoma-specific survival of histologically amelanotic and pigmented melanoma were compared using generalized estimating equations and Cox regression models, respectively.RESULTS Of 3467 melanomas, 275 (8%) were histopathologically amelanotic. Female sex,nodular and unclassified or other histologic subtypes, increased Breslow thickness, presence of mitoses, severe solar elastosis, and lack of a coexisting nevus were independently associated with amelanotic melanoma (each P < .05). Amelanotic melanoma was generally ofa higher American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor stage at diagnosis (odds ratios[ORs] [95%CIs] between 2.9 [1.8-4.6] and 11.1 [5.8-21.2] for tumor stages between T1b and T3b and ORs [95%CIs] of 24.6 [13.6-44.4] for T4a and 29.1 [15.5-54.9] for T4b relative to T1a;P value for trend

BackgroundWe previously reported a significant association between higher UV radiation exposure before diagnosis and greater survival with melanoma in a population-based study in Connecticut. We sought to evaluate the hypothesis that sun exposure before diagnosis was associated with greater survival in a larger, international population-based study with more detailed exposure information.MethodsWe conducted a multicenter, international population-based study in four countries-Australia, Italy, Canada, and the United States-with 3,578 cases of melanoma with an average of 7.4 years of follow-up. Measures of sun exposure included sunburn, intermittent exposure, hours of holiday sun exposure, hours of water-related outdoor activities, ambient ultraviolet B (280-320 nm) dose, histologic solar elastosis, and season of diagnosis.ResultsResults were not strongly supportive of the earlier hypothesis. Having had any sunburn in 1 year within 10 years of diagnosis was inversely associated with survival; solar elastosis-a measure of lifetime cumulative exposure-was not. In addition, none of the intermittent exposure measures-water-related activities and sunny holidays-were associated with melanoma-specific survival. Estimated ambient UVB dose was not associated with survival.ConclusionAlthough there was an apparent protective effect of sunburns within 10 years of diagnosis, there was only weak evidence in this large, international, population-based study of melanoma that sun exposure before diagnosis is associated with greater melanoma-specific survival.ImpactThis study adds to the evidence that sun exposure before melanoma diagnosis has little effect on survival with melanoma.