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The objective of this paper is to estimate the energy saving potential in China's paper industry by determining energy intensity under different scenarios. Cointegration model and stability test are applied to formulate the equilibrium equation. Results show that energy price, industry structure, profit margin and technology have significant impact as they are negatively correlated to changes in energy intensity. Three scenarios (BAU (business as usual), intermediate and active) are designed to estimate the future trend of energy intensity in paper industry. In 2010, the energy intensity (energy consumption per unit of value added) was 4 tce/10,000 RMB, and by the scenarios it is expected to considerably decline. According to the BAU (business as usual) scenario, the energy intensity will decrease to 2.56, 1.43 and 0.70 tce/10,000 RMB by 2015, 2020 and 2025, respectively. With respect to the intermediate scenario it is expected to drop further to 0.44 tce/10,000 RMB. Yet by the active scenario, the energy intensity is expected to considerably decline to 0.36 tce/10,000 RMB by 2025. Using the BAU forecast as a baseline, the quantity of energy savings is estimated to be 185.6 billion tce by 2025. Considering this important potential, we also provided some policy suggestions.

provides R codes and RMarkdown files for all the experiments in the paper "State-Space Models on Stiefel Manifold with A New Approach to Nonlinear Filtering". The codes and the corresponding RMarkdown were written in November 2018. Notice that you will have to install the package "SMFilter" before running the RMarkdown code. The package can be found SMFilter@CRAN or on my GitHub https://github.com/yukai-yang/SMFilter

The law of the one price (LOP) was examined in the main European markets for lightweight coated paper (LWC paper) and uncoated wood-free paper (office paper) using monthly data for the period 1992–2005. The study focused on whether floating and fixed exchange rates impacted on the uniformity of price linkages between the main markets. Bivariate cointegration analysis between 12 pairs of paper prices largely indicated uniform price behaviour between the UK, France and Germany in both commodity groups. Although there was slight indication of the extent of market integration becoming stronger after European currency union, our results were not able to strongly distinguish the floating and fixed exchange rate regimes. Despite the different end-use sectors of the LWC paper used by the publication industry and fine paper, which is dominantly for office use, the cointegration test results did not indicate behavioural differences between the two paper grades.

Using the cointegration technique, this paper examines the revenue and expenditure behaviour of the Nepalese government in the presence of foreign aid for the period 1975–2002. The results show that aid positively affects both development and non-development expenditure in the long run. However, the long-run relationship between aid and non-development expenditure is found to be stronger than that between aid and development expenditure. Since aid is generally given for development expenditure, these results indicate the possibility of diversion of aid to non-development expenditure. Thus, the long-run relationship between aid and non-development expenditure may indicate aid fungibility. On the other hand, no evidence is found in favour of the hypothesis that aid availability makes the government lazy in terms of domestic revenue mobilisation.

This paper presents long-run exchange rate elasticities of Finnish newsprint and pulp export prices in the United Kingdom (UK) and Germany over the period 1980–94. The elasticities were estimated for a markup pricing model using Johansen's cointegration method. The magnitudes of the elasticity estimates obtained by imposing price homogeneity indicate that pass-through of exchange rate changes to export prices has been incomplete in both markets. For newsprint, the pass-through elasticity was 0.60 in the UK and 0.46 in Germany, which means that about one half of the changes in the exchange rates is reflected in prices as expressed in the destination countries' currencies and about a half in prices measured in Finnish markka. Instead, in pulp exports the pass-through elasticities differed from each other between the two destination countries more clearly than in newsprint exports, indicating a different pricing behaviour of Finnish pulp exporters in the UK and Germany when exchange rate changes. Pass-throug...

The analysis of the celebrated Bullion Report of 1810 was anticipated in large part by the lesser-known Currency Report of 1804. Both claimed that the phenomena under investigation--the depreciation of the Irish pound in 1803-04 and the rise in the price of gold in 1808-10--were exclusively monetary in origin. The paper uses cointegration techniques in order to test the proposition of the Irish Report. In that case, a 'hard' bullionist interpretation is insufficient to account for the observed exchange rate movements. Copyright 1993 by Royal Economic Society.

This paper revisits the question of interest rate pass-through from the federal funds rate to bank and open market rates from the years 1987 to 2015. We employ cointegration tests with improved testing power by using information in non-normal errors. Using this approach, we find evidence of cointegration between the federal funds rate and the prime rate, the federal funds rate and the 3-month financial commercial paper rate, but no evidence of cointegration between the federal funds rate and the 30-year conventional mortgage rate. Moreover, we estimate the degree of long-run pass-through for both the prime and commercial paper rates to be less than one. Our results confirm that there is not only significant co-movement between the federal funds rate and short-term borrowing rates, but also that interest rate pass-through, in the long run, is incomplete.

This research determines the intertemporal relationships caused by the coal, oil, and natural gas consumption in the carbon dioxide emission by the G7 countries from 1965 to 2018. Auto-regressive and Distributed Lags models and Bound test were used to detect cointegration and understand the dynamic effect. Due to structural breaks occurred in the variables, two dummy variables for the periods of breaks, 1978 and 1990 were incorporated respectively. Positive causality was identified, in the sense that the consumption of fossil fuels provides an increase in carbon dioxide emissions. Short-term elasticities indicate that an increase of 1 percentage point in the consumption of oil, coal, and natural gas will cause, respectively, an increase of 0.4823%, 0.3140%, and 0.1717% in carbon dioxide emissions. In the long run, the increase of 1 percentage point in the consumption of oil, coal, and natural gas will cause, respectively, an increase of 0.4924%, 0.2692%, and 0.1829% in carbon dioxide emissions. The error correction model (ECM = −0.4739) indicates that 47.39% of a shock in the carbon dioxide emissions variable is resolved in one year and after 2 years, carbon dioxide emissions return to long term equilibrium.

Background The popularity of dengue can be inferred from Google Trends that summarizes Google searches of related topics. Both the disease and its Google Trends have a similar source of causation in the dengue virus, leading us to hypothesize that dengue incidence and Google Trends results have a long-run equilibrium. Objective This research aimed to investigate the properties of this long-run equilibrium in the hope of using the information derived from Google Trends for the early detection of upcoming dengue outbreaks. Methods This research used the cointegration method to assess a long-run equilibrium between dengue incidence and Google Trends results. The long-run equilibrium was characterized by their linear combination that generated a stationary process. The Dickey-Fuller test was adopted to check the stationarity of the processes. An error correction model (ECM) was then adopted to measure deviations from the long-run equilibrium to examine the short-term and long-term effects. The resulting models were used to determine the Granger causality between the two processes. Additional information about the two processes was obtained by examining the impulse response function and variance decomposition. Results The Dickey-Fuller test supported an implicit null hypothesis that the dengue incidence and Google Trends results are nonstationary processes (P=.01). A further test showed that the processes were cointegrated (P=.01), indicating that their particular linear combination is a stationary process. These results permitted us to construct ECMs. The model showed the direction of causality of the two processes, indicating that Google Trends results will Granger-cause dengue incidence (not in the reverse order). Conclusions Various hypothesis testing results in this research concluded that Google Trends results can be used as an initial indicator of upcoming dengue outbreaks.

In this paper we analyse the relationship between crude oil prices and prices of basic petrochemical feedstock. In particular, we estimate dynamic effects of Brent oil prices on naphtha, benzene, ethylene, propylene, acrylonitrile (ACN), vinyl chloride polymer (VCM), purified terephthalic acid (PTA), and monoethylene glycol (MEG). We first analyse cointegration properties among these variables using bounds testing approach. Then we estimate error correction models to assess long- and short-run effects of oil price changes on prices of these petrochemical feedstocks. We find that naphtha prices move one to one with oil prices in the long run. Prices of other feedstock react less than unity in the long run. We also find that only prices of benzene and naphtha react more than unity in the short run whereas prices of propylene and ethylene react less than unity to changes in oil prices.

Financial integration is a phenomenon in which global financial markets are closely connected with each other. This article investigates the integration of Korean stock market with other stock markets using a multivariate GARCH analysis. We chose total seven countries including Korea for this paper based on the amount of export and then we chose major stock indices which can be thought as representative stock markets of those countries. The empirical analysis has shown that countries’ financial integration.

In this paper, the Danish wood fuel market is investigated. The analysis consists of three parts. First, the development of price dispersion over time for wood chips and wood pellets is examined as a proxy for market transparency. Second, the interconnections between the prices of pellets, chips and straw are studied by use of cointegration analysis. Finally, relations between wood fuel prices in Denmark and Sweden are analyzed. The result is that price dispersion has decreased notably for wood pellets, but not for wood chips. In terms of intra-fuel cointegration, the results point towards the presence of cointegration between prices of wood chips and straw. There are also indications that the Swedish and Danish markets for wood pellets are integrated but this is not the case for wood chips. Given that Sweden and Denmark trade wood pellets between each other and also import from common third sources, it is logical that pellet prices are cointegrated. The conclusions from this study strengthen the view that markets for wood chips and wood pellets have different characteristics, not least as a result of the lack of transparency resulting from the significant product heterogeneity for wood chips.

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between government spending and private consumption in the UK, for which there is scarce previous empirical evidence. We disaggregate public expenditure into three categories and search for the corresponding private consumption multipliers. Our analysis is based on the estimation of a structural vector error correction model with quarterly non-interpolated data for the period 1981:1 – 2007:4. Initially, we estimate negative but barely significant effects on consumption of shocks to total public spending. Then, using the public spending breaking down, we find that while shocks to public wages crowd-out private consumption as predicted by neoclassical models, shocks to the non-systematic component of social spending and government purchases of goods and services generate a positive reaction, so to crowd-in private consumption. Thus, the qualitative and quantitative dimensions of fiscal multipliers on private consumption change across different public spending categories. Our findings suggest that any empirical support of competing theoretical models on the issue would benefit from a disaggregation of government expenditure, rather than focusing on the aggregate measure.

In this paper, we study the dynamic relationship in the shadow banking system by examining the short-run and the long-run relationship among the financial assets of the money market fund, the commercial paper, and the repurchase agreement market. The evidence suggests that there exists a common long-term cointegrating trend among these three components of the shadow banking system for 1985-2013 sample period. Any disequilibrium in this long-run relationship among these variables is corrected by movement in the financial assets of the money market funds. The trend-cycle decomposition from the estimated cointegrating relationship shows that the cyclical component in the money market funds is large and captures the huge swings in these markets during the financial crisis. Our results are also robust to the exclusion of the financial crisis, and it reveals the changing role of the commercial paper and the repurchase agreement market in the shadow banking system.

SummaryIn this paper we consider a two-stage duopoly game where firms first decide whether to invest in advertising and then compete in prices. Advertising has two effects: a market enlargement for both firms and a predatory gain for the investing firm only.Both symmetric and asymmetric equilibria may arise. The two most interesting cases are a coordination game where both firms investing and non-investing are equilibria, and a chicken game where only one firm invests while the other is possibly driven (endogenously) out of the market. Our results suggest that product differentiation has an ambiguous impact on investment in advertising and that strong product substitutabihty may induce a coordination problem.

This paper analyzes the stochastic convergence in per capita income levels among the current G-7 over the period 1900-89. We show that, in the presence of possible structural breaks, the strong condition of stationary pair-wise differences between per capita GDP holds in more cases than previously supposed. However, convergence occurs more frequently in the first part of the time sample than in the second one.

The paper investigates whether credit and liquidity views of monetary policy transmission can be identified as separate elements of a system which has multiple cointegration vectors. Likelihood ratio analysis is used to determine the empirical validity of the commercial paper - Treasury bill spread and Johansen's rank condition tests identification restrictions for individual cointegration vectors. By imposing structural restrictions on a system of income, M2 and short-term interest rates, it is possible to generically identify individual cointegration vectors representing the credit and liquidity views, respectively, while a third vector is identified as a stationary relationship of short-term rates.

Public finances worldwide have been severely hit by the 2008-2009 Great Recession, stimulating the debate on the consequences of growing fiscal imbalances. Building on Paesani et al. (2006), this paper focuses on the USA, Germany and Italy over the 1983-2009 period and studies the effects of fiscal shocks and government debt accumulation on long-term interest rates, both nationally and across borders. Based on a theoretical framework, the empirical analysis disentangles permanent and transitory components of interest rates dynamics finding that sustained debt accumulation leads, at least temporarily, to higher long-term interest rates. This is particularly true for the Italian case. There is also evidence of significant cross-country linkages, mainly between Italy and the USA.

We present an empirical analysis of the determinants of labour cost in OECD countries, with particular reference to the impact of labour market institutions from 1960 to 1994. The main contribution of the paper is to show that labour market regulations can explain a large part of labour cost rise in OECD countries in the last decades once we control for productivity. These results are consistent with the findings of a companion paper (Nickell et al., 2001) where the effects of institutions on unemployment are examined. The model controls for macroeconomic shocks, and include the possibility of interactions among institutions. We present also a discussion of the potential problems encountered when estimating a macro pooled model like ours. We focus, among other things, on the hypothesis of poolability and on the cointegration properties of the model, suggesting a two way fixed effects specification in GLS form that corrects for heteroskedasticity and serial correlation. The explanatory power of the model is finally tested by means of a series of by country dynamic simulations.

This paper based on the platform of Eviews 6.0, in the view of the relationship between real estate investment and economic growth in Shenyang using the methods of the cointegration theory, Granger causality test, and error correction model to study empirically the relationship between them. The empirically study result show that, in the long term, there exist the causal relationship, that is the real estate investment growth of Shenyang has significant effect on GDP growth, which can play a good role innuendo and prediction.

This paper is concerned with the role of the output-capital ratio in growth models. In the first part we highlight the behaviour of the output-capital ratio along the balanced growth path in the models of Solow (1956) and Romer (1986). In the second part we assess the stability of the ratio for some industrial countries.

A sustainable long-run pattern in the relative competitiveness of euro area countries is a key factor for the survivorship of the monetary union. We analyze the issue focussing on unit labor cost dynamics using cointegration analysis for the whole economy and for the manufacturing sector separately. Our findings show that the introduction of the euro has increased, rather than decreased, the distance among member countries, as measured in the metric of unit labor costs. Dispersion of productivity rather than wage compensation suggests that persisting idiosyncratic dynamics are driven by real factors, i.e. diverging technological patterns rather than by monetary factors, expressed by wage compensation.

The effects of the Canada-U.S. exchange rate, the U.S. pulp price, and the domestic use of pulp on the Canadian pulp price are investigated using a cointegration analysis. Results suggest that the U.S. pulp price is more important than other variables in determining the price of pulp in Canada. The incomplete pass-through of the exchange rate indicates that Canadian pulp producers may not have market power to increase their price of pulp. The temporary increase in the price of Canadian pulp in response to a devaluation of the Canadian dollar may be due to short-term contracts which Canadian pulp producers have with their importers. Copyright 1997, Oxford University Press.

This article examines the influence of the business cycle on expenditures of three major types of legalized gambling activities: Casino gambling, lottery, and pari-mutuel wagering. Empirical results are obtained using monthly aggregated US per capita consumption time series for the period 1959.01–2010.08. Among the three gambling activities only lottery consumption appears to be recession-proof. This series is characterized by a vast and solid growth that exceeds the growth in income and the growth in other gambling sectors. Casino gambling expenditures show a positive growth during expansions and no growth during recessions. Hence, the loss in income during recessions affects casino gambling. However, income shocks which are not directly related to the business cycle do not influence casino gambling expenditures. Pari-mutuel wagering displays an overall negative trend and its average growth rate is smaller than the growth in income, especially during recessions. The findings of this article provide important implications for the gambling industry and for local governments.

Introduction This study was designed to test the feasibility and face validity of the composite time trade-off (composite TTO), a new approach to TTO allowing for a more consistent elicitation of negative health state values. Methods The new instrument combines a conventional TTO to elicit values for states regarded better than dead and a lead-time TTO for states worse than dead. Results A total of 121 participants completed the composite TTO for ten EQ-5D-5L health states. Mean values ranged from −0.104 for health state 53555 to 0.946 for 21111. The instructions were clear to 98 % of the respondents, and 95 % found the task easy to understand, indicating feasibility. Further, the average number of steps taken in the iteration procedure to achieve the point of indifference in the TTO and the average duration of each task were indicative of a deliberate cognitive process. Conclusion Face validity was confirmed by the high mean values for the mild health states (>0.90) and low mean values for the severe states (

We …rst show that most of the volatility of real eective exchange rates of major currencies can be allocated to low frequencies (i.e., below business cycle frequencies). This makes the analysis of real exchange rates at all frequencies a more sound exercise than the typical business cycle one, which compares actual data and simulated data after the Hodrick-Prescott …lter is applied. Then, we challenge the conventional wis- dom that a simple two-country, two-good model, as described in Heathcote and Perri (2002) cannot generate either enough volatility or enough persistence in real exchange rates when compared to the data. When analyzing real exchange rate of the U.S. dol- lar at all frequencies, the model explains most of its standard deviation and assigns most of its volatility to low frequencies, as in the data. In fact, the puzzle is that the model generates too much persistence of real exchange rate instead of too little, as the business cycle analysis asserts. Part of the success of our model resides in its ability to exhibit hump-shaped dynamics of RER. This is not surprising, but comforting, after Steinsson (2008) showed that real shocks in a two-country sticky-price model yields RER hump-shaped dynamics.

This study investigates the relationship between international pulp prices and producer inventories of pulp by using the Johansen cointegration method. Long-run equilibrium is found to exist between pulp price and NORSCAN inventory for the study period, 1980–95. A two-variable short-run forecasting model for the pulp price is formed, and the speed of adjustment to equilibrium is found to be slow.

This paper considers group-mean fully modified OLS estimation for a panel of cointegrating polynomial regressions, i. e., regressions that include an integrated process and its powers as explanatory variables. The stationary errors are allowed to be serially correlated, the regressor to be endogenous and { as usual in the nonstationary panel literature { we include individual specific fixed effects. We consider a fixed cross-section dimension, asymptotics in the time dimension only and show that the estimator allows for standard asymptotic inference in this setting. In both the simulations as well as an illustrative application estimating environmental Kuznets curves for carbon dioxide emissions we compare our group-mean estimator with the pooled fully modified OLS estimator of de Jong and Wagner (2018)., Discussion Paper / SFB823;27/2018

This paper investigates effects of the real exchange rate and its volatility on trade balance and real GDP using a set of eighteen countries, mainly the OECD developed countries. The paper reports econometric procedures and empirical estimates for major currency-owned large economies and non-major currency- owned countries. One task, for which the elasticities of international trade and real GDP are needed, is developing exchange rate assessments. The study finds that real currency depreciation leads to improvement of trade balance in most of the examined developed countries. But the trade balances after real depreciation of currency do not follow J-curve patterns. With regard to the real exchange rate variability, the evidence is mixed. Similarly, effects of the real currency devaluation on real GDP differ across countries. Also, we observe that major currency-owned countries could have different value-and-volume-effects with non-major currency countries.

This paper examines contagion in the foreign exchange markets of three Central European countries and the euro area. Contagion is viewed as the occurrence of extreme events taking place in different countries simultaneously and is assessed with a measure of asymptotic tail dependence among the studied distributions. Currency crisis contagion is one strand of this research. However, the main aim of the paper is to examine the potential of bubble contagion. To this end the representative exchange rates are linked to their fundamentals using a cointegration approach. Given the long-time range required by cointegration testing, the variables are first tested for unit roots with structural breaks, whose existence is supported by these tests. In the sequel, the extreme values of the differences between actual daily exchange rates and their monthly equilibrium values determine the episodes associated with large departures from equilibrium. Using tools from Extreme Value Theory, we analyse the transmission of both standard crisis and bubble formation events in the examined currency markets. The results reveal a significant potential for contagion in the currency markets of Central Europe.

Purpose: The paper examined the determinants of fiscal behavior of subnational governments in Nigeria between 1981 and 2020. Approach/Methodology/Design: An Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test for cointegration which involves an extra F-test on the lagged level variables in the ARDL equation was employed. Findings: The results reveal that finances of the lower level of governments in Nigeria have not been managed optimally as there appeared a misplaced priority in terms of government outlay. Practical Implications: The implication presented in this paper is meant for the concerned authorities. The results indicate the need for the subnational governments in Nigeria to cut the overhead costs of governance by reducing the frivolous expenditures in order to curtail the incessant borrowing habit of these tiers of government locally and internationally. Originality/value: Despite the fact that factors determining subnational fiscal behavior have been approached from diverse ideological and methodological perspectives, yet, the challenges linger on, the paper, therefore, employed sophisticated econometric technique to examine why the finances of the lower level of governments in Nigeria have not been managed optimally.

This paper focuses on the spillover dynamics of shocks originating in China during the last two decades. More specifically, the paper compares the effects of a shock to China’s GDP and exchange rate using early 2000s trade patterns with those of two decades later. We use a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model as it allows to consider trade interactions as well as financial linkages through interest rates, stock prices, and exchange rates. Our results indicate that the shock spillovers from China have become more pronounced over the past two decades. While the world has become more exposed to China’s economy, it has become more susceptible to Chinese economic shocks. This paper contributes to the literature by evaluating the dynamics of China’s spillover effects and highlights the structural changes in trade between major global trade players. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00181-021-02182-5.

Bangladesh had historically relished the fortune of being a labor surplus nation and therefore had accumulated remittances in large volumes over the last four decades. Thus, the concept of remittance-effectiveness in shaping the economy of Bangladesh emerges with utmost significance and importance amidst researchers and policy makers all around the globe. The aim of this paper is to identify the dynamics of real exchange rate movements following inflow of remittances in Bangladesh over the period of 1980 to 2013 and whether such movements caused Dutch disease problem in the country. This paper fills the gap in the empirical literature using the ARDL bounds testing approach to investigate the causal relationship between foreign remittance and real exchange rate exclusively in the context of Bangladesh. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, ARDL cointegration test, ARDL Error Correction Model (ECM) approach and ARDL Engle-Granger causality test are used in the paper. The results confirm that there is a negative correlation between remittance and real exchange rate which implies that a rise in the volume of remittance inflows exert appreciative pressures on Bangladesh’s real exchange rate. However, such real exchange rate movements were not translated into Dutch disease problems.

There is a pool of techniques and methods in addressing dynamics behaviors in higher frequency data, prominent among them is the ARCH/GARCH techniques. In this paper, the various types and assumptions of the ARCH/GARCH models were tried in examining the dynamism of exchange rate and international crude oil prices in Nigeria. And it was observed that the Nigerian foreign exchange rates behaviors did not conform with the assumptions of the ARCH/GARCH models, hence this paper adopted Lag Variables Autoregressive (LVAR) techniques originally developed by Agung and Heij multiplier to examine the dynamic response of the Nigerian foreign exchange rates to crude oil prices. The Heij coefficient was used to calculate the dynamic multipliers while the Engel & Granger two-step technique was used for cointegration analysis. The results revealed an insignificant dynamic long-term response of the exchange rate to crude oil prices within the periods under review. The coefficient of dynamism was insignificantly in most cases of the sub-periods. The paper equally revealed that the significance of the dynamic multipliers depends greatly on external information about both market indicators which are two-way interactions. Thus, the paper recommends periodic intervention in the foreign exchange market by the monetary authorities to stabilize the market against any shocks in the international crude oil market, since crude oil is the main source of foreign exchange in Nigeria.

The paper endeavours to explore the macroeconomic impact on the Yuan SDR exchange rate of China during 2017m1-2021m6 to justify the internationalization of RMB which had entered into the SDR basket of IMF in October 2016.To evaluate the impact ,the paper used the methodology of Johansen (1988) cointegration and vector error correction model considering monthly Yuan per SDR as dependent variable and monthly GDP, inflation rate, foreign exchange reserves, export and import as the independent macro-economic variables. The pattern of trendline of Yuan per SDR is found nonlinear having cyclical fluctuations and seasonal variations according to Hamilton (2018). The paper also found that Yuan per SDR has significant long run causalities with export, import, inflation rate, GDP and foreign exchange rate of China during the specified period. Even, Yuan per SDR has significant short run causality with export only. The cointegrating equation converged towards the equilibrium with the speed of adjustment 11.83% per month significantly. The impulse response function of import to Yuan per SDR showed significantly convergent. The VECM contains autocorrelation problem and unit root for which it is non-stationary.

PurposeThe purpose of the paper is to test and analyze the equilibrium economic relationships of the East Africa Community (EAC).Design/methodology/approachTo attain the study's purpose the authors applied the Johansen cointegration test, including long-run structural modeling (LRSM), vector-error-correlation-model (VECM) and variance-decomposition (VDC).FindingsAt I(1), both Philips‐Peron (PP) and Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) tests show that the East Africa member states' economies are cointegrated. The result was further substantiated by the tests based on Johansen cointegration and VECM procedures, showing significant long-run and short-run economic relations. The result further reveals that despite some uncommon issues among member states such as Tanzania and Kenya, however, their economic relationships remain significant though it is negative. Moreover, the finding revealed positive and significant short-run economic relationships between Kenya, Burundi and Rwanda.Originality/valueThe paper applies the cointegration techniques in the context of EAC. The result is likely to be adding value to the policymaker and also to the existing literature on the subject. This may trigger policy implications and open new research direction within the region and out.

This paper aims to examine the impact of Covid-19 pandemic on stock markets. This paper also analyses the stock market cointegration of selected global equity indices that performed better and have a quick speed of recovery during the pandemic. This paper also questions how increasing uncertainty and volatility deters investors’ perception of the diversification of equity investments. The dataset for the selected 12 global equity indices has been used from Thompson Reuters’s EIKON database in a given period of time between 2010 and 2021. This paper employs Vector Error Correction Models to assess the relationship among the selected global equity indices. Findings demonstrate that (i) there is an adverse impact of Covid-19 on the Global Equity markets, (ii) there is a clear sign of cointegration in global equity indices, (ii) investors can benefit from investing in particular equity indices that have exhibited quick speed of recovery from the pandemic records lows. The findings finally provide a strong foundation for constructing a resilient equity portfolio in a highly uncertain market environment.

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between perceived corruption and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Egypt during the period 1970–2019. Using a novel back-casting methodology, it extrapolates perceived corruption time series between 1970 and 1980. The results of the Johansen cointegration technique and the multivariate vector error correction model show a positive relationship between perceived corruption and FDI, supporting the “greasing the wheels” effect of corruption. This positive association can be explained by several factors, such as the cross-interdependence of rent-generating assets with perceived corruption and FDI, and the use of FDI data based on the balance of payments that has growing financial-flows and phantom-FDI components. The findings of this paper have important policy implications. Improving the fundamental governance structure in Egypt should be accompanied by a comprehensive investment facilitation strategy to compensate for the removal of “grease” from the “wheels”.

This research paper attempts to investigate both the long-run and causality relationship among electric power consumption (EPC), technological transfer, financial development (FD), and environmental quality for the Saudi Arabia (KSA) economy from 1980 to 2019. In doing so, we propose a carbon emission function tested by incorporating multi-steps techniques such as autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) has been exploited to determine the existence of cointegration or no; while vector error correction model (VECM) has been applied to decide the direction of causality. In this paper we have proposed two proxies of technological transfer, namely imported technology (MT) and Technical cooperation grants (TCG). The results indicate the existence of cointegration between the concerned series. Besides, the existence of a feed-back effect among variables (except TCG) in the long-run. However, in the short run feed-back effect exists among EPC and EnvQ; MT and EnvQ; EPC and MT. Thus, the paper provides original visions for policy makers to encourage the technological transfer by financing and supporting the electric energy sector which constitutes the main locomotive to improve the environment quality for the KSA.JEL classification : C32, C52, O11, Q43

The recent shocks in demand and supply caused by Covid-19 influence and the current depreciation of the Georgian Lari (GEL) reduced the trust of economic agents in currency. There is no objective macroeconomic reason that would change their attitude to the future of currency for the better. Depreciation of a currency impacts all the components of GDP, leading to myriad problems in economic growth. The depreciation of the national currency is generally perceived as positively affecting the country's export. The study analyzes the impact of Georgian Lari's exchange rate depreciation on Georgia's export using monthly GEL exchange rate data from May 2006 to April 2020. The paper employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for its advantages of measuring cointegration, usefulness in the small samples, and being unbiased in measuring a long-run relationship between variables. Outcomes indicate that the exchange rate depreciation has an inverse long-run impact on export in the long-run period. The exchange rate impact on Georgia's export shows inelastic demand for Georgia's export goods. The study contributes to the literature while providing the implication of currency depreciation on exports of the Georgian economy. The estimated value of the exchange rate has been found to exert no direct pressure on the amount of export. In the paper, possible reasons for such implications are also examined. Paper found that the control variable interest rate also has an inverse impact on Georgia's export performance in the long-run as well as in the short-run. International reserves positively influence the export in the long-run with a high significance level. The paper also discusses possible ways of stabilization of national currency.

This paper employs response surface regressions based on simulation experiments to calculate asymptotic distribution functions for the Johansen-type likelihood ratio tests for cointegration. These are carried out in the context of the models recently proposed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1997) that allow for the possibility of exogenous variables integrated of order one. The paper calculates critical values that are very much more accurate than those available previously. The principal contributions of the paper are a set of data files that contain estimated asymptotic quantiles obtained from response surface estimation and a computer program for utilizing them. This program, which is freely available via the Internet, can be used to calculate both asymptotic critical values and P-values. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Objective - This study examines the relation between stock market capitalization and international financial integration for 23 developing countries during 1996 - 2018. Methodology/Technique - By using recently developed econometric panel techniques. The present paper takes into consideration cross section and structural breaks. Findings - Our findings show several interesting results. First, the existence of a long run relationship between the stock market and financial integration, particularly when private capital flows are included. Second, with the presence of structural breaks the result shows that international financial integration has a negative impact on stock market, which means that financial integration loses its explanatory power over the crisis period. Novelty - There is no applied study on the verification of the volatility of international capital flows (foreign direct investments and remittances) in the analysis of the relationship between international financial integration and stock markets. Type of Paper - Empirical Keywords: Cointegration, Cross-Section, International Financial Integration, Panel Unit Root, Structural Breaks, Stock Market. JEL Classification: C23, C51, C58, F02, F21, F24, G01.

One of the most critical problems of today is the environmental policies with the focus on economy. Despite the many efforts of global organizations, environmental pollution is the subject of human beings. For this, the most polluting countries attract the attention of researchers. Many studies produce economy-centered environmental policies for the USA. However, the asymmetric effect of natural resources on environmental pollution has been neglected in the literature. In this paper, the effects of economic growth, renewable energy, biocapacity, and natural resources on the ecological footprint are addressed within the framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis over the period 1980-2017. Empirical findings confirm that economic growth and biocapacity increase environmental degradation, while renewable energy consumption helps reduce environmental damage. More specifically, when the results are analyzed in terms of natural resources, positive shocks in natural resources contribute to reducing environmental damage, while negative shocks in it negatively affect the environmental quality. The paper presents important policy implications for economy-centered environmental issues.

PurposeThe paper aims to shed light on the effects of inflation on gold price and exchange rate in Vietnam by using time-varying cointegration.Design/methodology/approachUsing cointegration techniques with fixed coefficient and time-varying coefficient, the study exams the impacts of inflation in models and compares the results through coefficient estimates.FindingsA significant inflation impacts are found with the time-varying cointegration but not with the fixed coefficient cointegration models. Moreover, monetary policy affects exchange rate not only directly via its instruments as money supply and interest rate but indirectly via inflation. Also, interest rate is one of the determinants of gold price.Originality/valueTo the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to use time-varying cointegration to analyze the impact of inflation on the gold price and exchange rate in Vietnam. Gold price and exchange rate fluctuations are always the essential and striking issues, which have been emphasized by economists and policymakers. In macroeconometric researches, cointegration models are often used to analyze the long-term relations between variables. Attentionally, applied models show a limitation when estimating coefficients are fixed. This characteristic might not really match with the data properties and the variation of the economy. Currently, time-varying cointegration models are emerging method to solve the above issue.

Due to the transparency, simplicity, and blockchain system, cryptocurrencies gained popularity in the modern world. This led to more use of cryptocurrencies for speculation and investment rather than a medium of exchange. It is crucial to analyse the nature of the crypto market before investing in such currencies. With this intention, the paper tried to know the extent of following (Followness) of altcoins to the bitcoin in the different dominance phases like High Dominance, Low Dominance, and Moderate Dominance. For this purpose, daily closing prices of the Bitcoin and five major altcoins (Ethereum, Litecoin, Namecoin, Doge, and Ripple) are collected for the last five years and analyse the relationship between bitcoin and altcoins. Pearson's correlation coefficient test is used to know the direction of the relationship, and Vector Error Correction Model is used to see the extent of the relation. In general, the empirical result of the study showed cointegration between bitcoin and Altcoin. It also depicted that Altcoin showed a high level of followness in the moderate dominance phase and low followness in the low dominance phase. The study developed a price estimation equation to predict the price of altcoins depending upon the price of bitcoin and its dominance in the crypto market. This paper concludes that the dominance of Bitcoin also has a significant role in the price movement of altcoins.

This paper investigates the long-run and causal relationships of technology spillovers on manufacturing performance in Nigeria using the share of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in gross fixed capital formation as a proxy for technology transfer for the period 1981 to 2019 in a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The FDI stock appears to be too low at less than 1% of capital formation to generate any significant positive spillovers on manufacturing performance, resulting in an insignificant negative long-run relationship and the absence of causal relationships. The size of the local market has the most significant positive long-run effect on manufacturing performance, and the causality for this effect is one-way from manufacturing. A one-way causality was also observed from manufacturing to income per capital, though the long-run effect was significantly negative. The paper concluded that FDI technology spillover is presently not a major factor in Nigeria’s manufacturing performance. This may be redressed with policies aimed at increasing FDI inflows, increasing the technology-learning capacity of local firms and their vertical integration with foreign firms, and the creation of national infrastructure for technology development and diffusion

This paper has investigated the role of education and Financial Market Development (FMD) on the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows in Pakistan from 1970-2019. In the short run, education has a positive effect on FDI inflows. 1% increasing of government's spending on education would increase 0.361% of FDI inflows in Pakistan. Moreover, the FMD has a positive effect on FDI inflows in the short run. 1% increasing FMD may increase 0.0496% of FDI in the short run. Both education and FMD are supporting the FDI inflows in the short run. Comparatively, education shows a larger effect on FDI than that of FMD in the short run. However, FMD and government spending on education could not affect the FDI inflows in the long run. This paper recommends supporting education and financial markets to attract FDI inflows in Pakistan.