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By placing particular attention to the socio-economic dimension, this thesis explores the role of three pillars of an educational system: decentralization, early education and curricular tracking. The first article focuses on an experiment in Mexico that aimed to increase parental empowerment in the school's decision-making. Results show that increased participation produced an increase in cognitive abilities, however, this was mediated by the SES of the student. The second article brings an international perspective by comparing the evolution of the achievement gap over time in 32 countries. The findings suggest that tracking and vocational enrollment are important explanatory mechanisms of the cross-country variability in achievement gaps. The third article studies whether early education is associated with adult outcomes but concentrating on a particularly vulnerable population in the United States: GED recipients. Results show that participation in early education is associated with greater odds of graduating high school over attaining a GED. Esta tesis explora el rol de tres pilares de un sistema educativo: descentralización, educación temprana y seguimiento curricular. El primer artículo estudia un experimento en México que tuvo como objetivo aumentar el empoderamiento de padres en la toma de decisiones en la escuela. Los resultados muestran que mayor participación de los padres aumentó las habilidades cognitivas de sus hijos. Sin embargo, esto fue mediado por el SES del estudiante. El segundo artículo compara la evolución de la brecha de logros en 32 países. Los hallazgos sugieren que el seguimiento curricular y los estudios vocacionales pueden ser mecanismos explicativos de la brecha. El tercer artículo estudia si la educación temprana está asociada con resultados positivos en la adultez en Estados Unidos. Los resultados muestran que la participación en educación temprana está asociado con mayores probabilidades de graduarse de la escuela secundaria en comparación con la obtención de un GED.

Global budget (GB) arrangements have become a popular method worldwide to control the rise in healthcare expenditures. By guaranteeing hospital funding, payers hope to eliminate the drive for increased production, and incentivize providers to deliver more efficient care and lower utilization. We evaluated the introduction of GB contracts by certain large insurers in Dutch hospital care in 2012 and compared health care utilization to those insurers who continued with more traditional production-based contracts, i.e., cost ceiling (CC) contracts. We used the share of GB hospital funding per postal code region to study the effect of contract types. Our findings show that having higher share of GB financing was associated with lower growth in treatment intensity, but it was also associated with higher growth in the probability of having at least one hospital visit. While the former finding is in line with our expectation, the latter is not and suggests that hospital visits may take longer to respond to contract incentives. Our study covers the years of 2010–2013 (2 years before and 2 years following the introduction of the new contracts). Therefore, our results capture only short-term effects. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s10198-019-01114-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background In 2005, China established an internet-based Tuberculosis Information Management System (TBIMS) to monitor changes in tuberculosis (TB). Many scholars have conducted epidemiological research using TBIMS; however, few studies assessing control strategies have been performed based on this platform data. Henan province is a high TB incidence area in China where, in addition to following the nationwide TB strategies, a series of local intervention combinations have been implemented. Objective Our study aims to evaluate the impact of nationwide TB intervention combinations on epidemiological changes and determine whether Henan province can achieve the World Health Organization’s (WHO) goal of reducing TB incidence by 50% and TB mortality by 75% by the year 2025. Methods We used descriptive statistical methods to show the spatial and temporal distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) reported to the TBIMS database from 2005 to 2018, and logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the risk factors of bacteriological-positive TB. The dynamic compartmental model and Bayesian melding approach was adopted to estimate the burden of TB under the impact of different TB control policies. Results In total, 976,526 PTB cases were notified to the TBIMS in Henan in a period of 14 years. Although the overall incidence of PTB declined from 91.4/105 to 58.5/105, and the overall incidence of bacteriological-positive PTB declined from 44.5/105 to 14.7/105, the WHO’s 2025 goal could not be met. The distribution of high incidence and poverty-stricken counties were basically overlapped. Men, farmers and herdsmen (in rural areas), and subjects aged ≥60 years were more likely to develop bacteriological-positive PTB. The increasing treatment success for drug-susceptible tuberculosis and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis has not provided the desired reduction in incidence and mortality. Conclusions To achieve the targeted goal, while improving the cure rate of TB, new active (rather than passive) detection and intervention strategies should be formulated based on epidemiological characteristics in Henan province.

Policy interventions aimed at affecting a specific behavior may also indirectly affect individual choices in other domains. In this paper we study the direct effect of tobacco excise taxes and smoking bans on smoking behavior, and the indirect effect on eating behavior and body weight. Using very detailed clinical data on individual health, smoking, and dietary habits, we show that antismoking policies are effective in reducing smoking, but their consequences on eating behavior dramatically depend on the specific implemented policy. Increasing excise taxes on tobacco decreases body weight and caloric intake, and it improves the quality of eaten food. Smoking bans, instead, do not significantly affect body weight, although they impact on the diet composition. Smoking bans in restaurants induce a significant rise in the quality of food and in daily caloric intake. Conversely, smoking bans in bars negatively affect the quality of the daily diet, as individuals eat more fats and less fibers, and drink more alcohol and caffeine.

Enterprise Risk Management is the latest form of risk management. It has become an essential part of best business practices. Under the Financial Administration Act of 1985, the Treasury Board Secretariat was established to serve as the management agency for the government. Within this mandate is included best management practices. This paper examines the Treasury Board Secretariat’s main risk management guidance, the Guide to Integrated Risk Management and how it assists government departments, agencies, and organizations in implementing Enterprise Risk Management based on key principles. This paper evaluates whether or not the Guide to Integrated Risk Management does a good job is outlining those principles in an effective and explicit way for public servants within the federal government.

Nonpharmaceutical policies for epidemic prevention and control have been extensively used since the outbreak of COVID-19. Policies ultimately work by limiting individual behavior. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of policies by combining macro nonpharmaceutical policies with micro-individual going-out behavior. For different going out scenarios triggered by individual physiological safety needs, friendship needs, and family needs, this paper categorizes policies with significant differences in intensity, parameterizes the key contents of the policies, and simulates and analyzes the effectiveness of the policies in different going-out scenarios with simulation methods. The empirical results show that enhancing policy intensity can effectively improve policy effectiveness. Among different types of policies, restricting the times of going out is more effective. Further, the effect of controlling going out based on physiological safety needs is better than other needs. We also evaluate the policy effectiveness of 26 global countries or regions. The results show that the policy effectiveness varies among 26 countries or regions. The quantifiable reference provided by this study facilitates decision makers to establish policy and practices for epidemic prevention and control.

This paper provides a systematic literature review of studies investigating the effect of an intervention on the efficiency of a decision-making unit, when efficiency is computed using nonparametric frontier approaches. This paper offers a guide for future research by identifying patterns in (1) the fields of application, (2) applied efficiency models, and (3) analysis of efficiency determinants. Our findings indicate that, despite the prominent role of frontier techniques in the analysis of public sector performances and the importance of the effectiveness and the policy perspective, these two approaches have long been kept separate. Nevertheless, the combination of efficiency and effectiveness is fundamental to evaluate public interventions and to detect inefficiencies at the policy level, especially in key sectors such as education, health, and environment.

As a comprehensive benefit coordination mechanism, ecological protection compensation has received increasing attention internationally. China has also introduced a series of policies to promote ecological protection compensation mechanism improvement. The evaluation of ecological protection compensation policies is the main basis for the formulation, adjustment and improvement of the policy. Based on the front-end perspective of policy formulation, this paper selects 10 ecological protection compensation policies issued by the State Council and various ministries in China from 2006 to 2021. A text mining-based PMC index evaluation system using the ROSTCM tool is constructed to quantitatively evaluate these 10 typical policies, and four representative policies are selected for comparative analysis. The overall design of China’s ecological protection compensation policies is reasonable, and 5 out of 10 policies have good PMC index scores, which are: P1, P2, P5, P7 and P9; and 5 are at acceptable levels, which are: P3, P4, P6, P8 and P10. However, the PMC surface and the concavity index indicate that there are still some limitations that need to be improved, including the obvious internal differentiation of the policies, the single effectiveness of the policies, and the insufficient incentive and guarantee measures. Finally, this paper provides suggestions for the optimization of ecological protection compensation policies accordingly.

This paper offers a new way of assessing government cash transfers using a social welfare function framework. It demonstrates how one can use soci al welfare functions to measure the efficiency of such program s without requir ing the specif ication of a poverty line or particular poverty measures . The paper introduces three alternative principles of targeting, which provide a basis for measuring program efficiency. By applying the methodology developed in this paper , we compare the targeting efficiencies of 44 countries , which include both middle and high income countries.

Policy is an important support for risk society to prevent and resolve crises. Based on the content analysis of the policy text and PMC-Index model, this paper takes texts of 327 public health emergency response policies (PHERP) at the central level in China from 1989 to 2022 as the analysis object, designs an indicator system, and combines qualitative and quantitative methods to evaluate the existing policies. The results of content analysis indicate that current policy focuses on emergency rather than preventive control, the main policy-making and issuing authority is the Ministry of Health and policies are mostly issued in the form of notice. The PMC-Index of ten selected policies is all ranked above acceptable, which means that the overall quality of policy text is relatively high. However, the PMC-Surface shows that there is still considerable variability in the scores of the main indicators for each policy. The top three main scoring indicators are policy nature, policy evaluation and policy instrument, while the bottom three are policy time, policy release agency and policy target groups, which reminds us that the design of policy text can still be improved in terms of optimizing policy time, policy issuing institutions and expanding policy target groups. In response to these problems, this paper puts forward six suggestions for optimization.

Agricultural cooperatives are professional organizations that increase farmers’ incomes through market failure corrections, livelihood resilience, and sustainable rural development. The main purpose of this paper was to evaluate the policy effects of the construction of demonstration cooperatives for farmers in China. The authors of this paper used the propensity score matching (PSM) method to evaluate the policy effect of the construction of demonstration cooperatives based on questionnaire survey data on 509 farmer cooperatives in 10 counties in Sichuan Province of China. On this basis, the inverse probability weighting-regression adjustment (IPWRA) method was used as a robustness test. The authors of this study were the first to systematically and comprehensively assess the policy effects of demonstration cooperatives while considering selectivity effects. The empirical results show that the Chinese government’s construction of demonstration cooperatives has significant policy effects, especially regarding policy support in improving the economic strength, service capacity, product quality, and social response of demonstration cooperatives. However, the policy effect of improving the democratic management of cooperatives is not significant. It is recommended that the government continue to strengthen policy support in improving the economic strength, service capacity, product quality, and social response of demonstration cooperatives. Simultaneously, more effective measures should be taken to promote the democratic management of model cooperatives.

Most countries put significant amounts of time and effort in writing and issuing high-level policy documents. These are supposed to guide subsequent national defence efforts. But do they? And how do countries even try to ensure that they do? This paper reports on a benchmarking effort of how a few "best of breed” small- to medium-sized defence organisations (Australia, Canada, and New Zealand) deal with these issues. We find that most countries fail to link goals to resources and pay limited attention to specific and rigorous ex-ante or post-hoc evaluation, even when compared to their own national government-wide provisions. We do, however, observe a (modest) trend towards putting more specific goals and metrics in these documents that can be - and in a few rare cases were - tracked. The paper identifies 42 concrete policy "nuggets” - both "do's and don'ts” - that should be of interest to most defence policy planning/analysis communities. It ends with two recommendations that are in line with recent broader (nondefence) scholarship on the policy formulation-policy implementation gap: to put more rigorous emphasis on implementation (especially on achieving desired policy effects), but to do so increasingly in more experiential ("design”) ways, rather than in industrial-age bureaucratic ones ("PPBS”-systems). © 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Aim of study: This paper evaluates the effect of pre-accession EU grants on beneficiaries in the agri-food sector using a quasi-experimental approach on the case of Croatia. An insight into the available literature reveals a lack of rigorous research and evaluation of the results of using these funds in Croatia as well as in other beneficiary countries.Area of study: Republic of Croatia, Europe (2006–2017).Material and methods: Two datasets were used: (1) financial and structural data on the population of Croatian enterprises for the 2003–2017 period, and (2) data on SAPARD and IPARD grants in the 2007–2016 period. Data were analyzed using counterfactual impact analysis, i.e., a combination of difference-in-difference approach and propensity score matching.Main results: The grants showed to have a positive effect on firm survival, as well as positive effects on obtaining bank loans and increasing turnover, value added, employment, and total factor productivity. Heterogeneous treatment effects show that the grants resulted in the greatest additionality for micro-sized firms located in Central Croatia. Cost-benefit analysis estimates an increase in the value added, which outweighs scheme-induced costs by 120% in the short run and 90% in the mid run.Research highlights: Pre-accession programs in Croatia had a positive impact on the beneficiaries’ growth and business performance indicators in both short and mid term. This paper also promotes the application of similar research in other EU candidate countries where the same or similar funds are implemented.

Based on a literature review and theoretical mechanism, this paper takes the implementation point of the adjustment and transformation policy for old industrial cities as the breakthrough point, and uses a regression model to explore the impact of the adjustment and transformation policy of these old industrial cities on urban carbon emissions. This paper also robustly tests the effective mechanisms and environmental hypotheses. Overall, the implementation of the adjustment and renovation policy has significantly reduced the carbon emissions of old industrial cities by about 0.068 units. Compared with the control group cities, the pilot cities reduced carbon emissions by an average of about 310,000 tons after the implementation of the policy. Based on a summary of the excellent Chinese case experience and an empirical analysis, it can be concluded that improvements in the green innovation capacity of old industrial cities, the agglomeration of high-end service industries, and the strengthening of ecological restoration are important mechanisms that lead to reduced carbon emissions. There is no subsequent exacerbation of the carbon intensity of neighboring cities, and there is insufficient evidence to prove pollution via neighboring transfers and use of the beggar-thy-neighbor policy. The extended analysis shows that the “inverted U-shaped” CO2 Kuznets environmental curve hypothesis is significantly present in the sample of old industrial cities, but most cities do not cross the threshold. In 2013, about 60% of the urban sample economic growth and carbon emissions showed signs of tapping into potentials and increasing efficiency (absolute decoupling) and intensive expansion (relative decoupling). In old industrial cities, the proportion of relative decoupling shows a fluctuating upward trend. In the future, the government should accurately select its own development orientation and actively seek the “best balance” between economic growth and a green and low-carbon path.

In this paper, we analyze a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) that was introduced in Catalonia on May 1, 2017. The Bill established the requirement of a 100% pass-through of the tax to the final consumer and two levels of the tax: 0.08 euro/liter for products with 5-less than 8 g of sugar and 0.12 euro/liter for products with 8 g of sugar or more. Previous literature focusing on the impact of SSB taxes finds that pass-though is only complete in the long-term. Our paper provides new evidence that, when the tax increases prices substantially and immediately, the sales response is also significant. In particular, we estimate that the new SSB tax in Catalonia reduced SSB purchases by 7.7%. We document that part of this reduction is substituted by an increase in sales of zero/light drinks (substitution effect). Importantly, the reduction in purchases is stronger in areas with a higher incidence of obesity, in areas with higher household incomes and for products with higher sugar content.

The article introduces the special section on “Geographical Clustering and the Evaluation of Cluster Policies”. We first provide a motivation of cluster policies and briefly review the state of the art in cluster evaluation research. We proceed with summaries of the papers comprising the special section, which take different perspectives and cover distinct facets of cluster policy evaluation. The papers identify challenges for evaluation by highlighting the variety of approaches towards cluster policies addressed at different policy levels. Additional challenges for an identification of policy impact result from the complexity as well as the timing of policy effects. Thus, proper evaluations should employ and combine a broad set of evaluation methods. Based on the main lessons learned, we finally propose several avenues for future research to cope with these challenges.

When properly implemented, Randomized Controlled Trials (RCT) achieve a high degree of internal validity. Yet, if an RCT is to inform policy, it is critical to establish external validity. This paper systematically reviews all RCTs conducted in developing countries and published in leading economic journals between 2009 and 2014 with respect to how they deal with external validity. Following Duflo, Glennerster, and Kremer (2008), we scrutinize the following hazards to external validity: Hawthorne effects, general equilibrium effects, specific sample problems, and special care in treatment provision. Based on a set of objective indicators, we find that the majority of published RCTs does not discuss these hazards and many do not provide the necessary information to assess potential problems. The paper calls for including external validity dimensions in a more systematic reporting on the results of RCTs. This may create incentives to avoid overgeneralizing findings and help policy makers to interpret results appropriately.

Agent-based modeling has recently gained popularity in the field of simulation and modeling. Due to their characteristic properties, agent-based models (ABMs) allow for an improved and flexible way of modeling complex systems. Social dynamics is one such a complex system, which has complex components, such as demography, sociology, economics, psychology, health, and so on. Demography is one of the bigger and more important sub-systems of this complex system. In this paper, we have focused on utilizing the potential of ABM techniques to analyze the underlying processes in social demography. We propose and implement a holistic ABM that can be used for analysis, understanding, and prediction of socio-demographic processes as well as a tool for policy design and evaluation. The proposed model incorporates well-known factors affecting demography and provides ease and flexibility of adding newer factors. In this paper, we considered the use case of Korea and utilized the Korean census data for model development. Many ABMs have been proposed for demography but most of them not only have limited functionalities, but also lack the suitable usage of agent-based modeling itself. The proposed approach is wide-ranging, flexible, and general and can be reused by simply making changes in the initial data set for the analysis of the target society. We exhibit the validation of the proposed model, as well as its usage by executing virtual experiments for socio-demographic analysis and prediction.

Accessibility is usually evaluated using indicators calculated from spatial data. However, perceived accessibility, defined as the perceived potential to participate in spatially dispersed opportunities, is often poorly reflected by these calculated measures. This paper sets out to explain the mechanisms that lead to these mismatches. A conceptual model is constructed to establish what factors shape perceived accessibility. A schematic framework shows that mismatches between a calculated indicator and perceptions can stem from inaccuracies in awareness as well as from inaccuracies in the measure if the measure fails to take account of the subjective evaluations of accessibility components. When evaluating the performance of land-use and transport system configurations, calculated measures based on spatial and transport data only serve as proxies for how accessibility is actually experienced. This paper argues that bringing perceived accessibility to the fore of accessibility-based planning, by acknowledging and evaluating potential mismatches with calculated accessibility indicators, will advance the evolution from mobility-based to accessibility-based planning.

The papers by Dortet-Bernadet and Sicsic and by Redor in this issue examine respectively the success of R&D financial support programs in stimulating private R&D and the success of subsidized start-ups for the unemployed in creating long-lasting firms. Both papers focus on small French firms. Both programs are found to suffer from a deadweight loss. This comment discusses the results obtained and the policy conclusions that can be drawn from them. It is argued that the deadweight loss is in part unavoidable but that there are ways to limit it, for instance by using a policy mix of R&D tax incentives and subsidies, favoring tax incentives for small firms and subsidies for large firms. It is also recalled that a policy ought to be evaluated from various perspectives. Besides R&D additionality and firm survival a full cost benefit analysis would also consider R&D externalities, firm retention and decrease in unemployment., Mohnen Pierre. Comment: Effectiveness of public support for R&D and entrepreneurship. In: Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, n°493, 2017. Evaluation of public support to small and medium-sized firms. pp. 43-48.

Background The transition towards a more sustainable energy system is urgent for addressing global environmental and social challenges, and will require transformative changes including improved energy efficiency in the built environment. To reach identified efficiency potentials, various policy instruments have been introduced but their effects are often unclear. In this paper, we argue that the outline of transformative policy strategies will require well-designed evaluations. The objective is to present a theory-based evaluation framework that can be used to assess existing evaluations, in order to support transformative policy strategies. The framework is also applied to provide insights from current Swedish evaluation practices. Methods The theory-based evaluation framework presented builds on evaluation theory, policy analysis and transition research and is arranged around methods, value judgements and use of the evaluations. Moreover, key aspects from transition research are included to provide guidance for transformative efforts in the evaluations. The systematic review presented in the paper is qualitative, covering 33 policy evaluations for energy efficiency in buildings in Sweden, commissioned by Swedish governmental authorities over a decade. Results The results of the review reveal a wide range of evaluations undertaken, using a sound methodological evaluation base that builds on a variety of methods for analysis, and application of multi-criteria analyses. Commonly, however, a rather narrow scope was applied and we note a missed opportunity for triangulation of findings. Key aspects for capturing transformative efforts, such as system-, scale- and multi-actor approaches, as well as visioning, experimentation and learning, were considered to varying extents, but could be more explicit and elaborate. Conclusion In all, we find the proposed theory-based evaluation framework useful for assessing and discussing both robustness and transformative efforts of current policy and evaluation practices. The review of the Swedish policy evaluations further indicates sound evaluation practices, and a foundational structure for identifying and analysing transformative efforts. To fully support transformative changes, we suggest a wider system perspective and a more thorough multi-actor approach and actor involvement in the evaluations. We also stress the need to further link evaluation theory with transition research to design evaluations that can support transformative changes in society.

This paper discusses the utility of mixed methods research in international comparative studies on elite sport policies and (quantitative) composite indicators (CIs) in particular. It illustrates how complex and large amounts of data in 15 nations have been objectified into easily understood formats, CIs. Using a nine Pillar model, data were collected through a research inventory and surveys completed by 3142 elite athletes, 1376 coaches and 241 performance directors. Ninety-six critical success factors and 750 sub-factors were aggregated into a CI. The paper shows how CIs are helpful in identifying a possible (non) relationship between elite sport policies and success, in facilitating interpretation and comparison, and in understanding differences and convergences in elite sport systems. However, there are a number of drawbacks, for example, understanding elite sport policies as part of a broader social, cultural and political context. Complementary qualitative analysis is necessary and has been used to interpret elite sport policies of nations.

The success or failure of urban freight transport measures crucially depends on local policy makers’ knowledge and awareness of stakeholders’ preferences. The behavioral approach calls for stakeholder-specific data acquisition and model estimation. Considering the cost and time to perform an appropriate data acquisition process and the ever present aim of compressing research costs, it is important to investigate innovative data acquisition procedures that can satisfy the above mentioned constraints while not sacrificing data quality. The paper tests the capability of an alternative, less expensive and faster to administer procedure of acquiring stakeholder-specific data capable of reproducing policy evaluation results (i.e. willingness to pay measures) derivable from a standard data acquisition process. In more detail, the paper investigates the respective capabilities retailers and transport providers have in predicting each other responses to a stated ranking exercise aimed at measuring agents’ preferences for alternative urban freight policies for the limited traffic zone in the city center of Rome. Results show that retailers are capable of predicting with a good level of accuracy transport providers’ preferences for a given policy while the opposite is not true. This represents an important step forward in willingness to pay estimation for policy changes when the substitution rates between the various attributes considered are the main research objective of a strategic level analysis. Were this possible one could, in fact, interview retailers alone to understand also which would be transport providers’ preferences for the policies evaluated.

Healthcare systems are increasingly recognised as complex, in which a range of non-linear and emergent behaviours occur. China’s healthcare system is no exception. The hugeness of China, and the variation in conditions in different jurisdictions present very substantial challenges to reformers, and militate against adopting one-size-fits-all policy solutions. As a consequence, approaches to change management in China have frequently emphasised the importance of sub-national experimentation, innovation, and learning. Multiple mechanisms exist within the government structure to allow and encourage flexible implementation of policies, and tailoring of reforms to context. These limit the risk of large-scale policy failures and play a role in exploring new reform directions and potentially systemically-useful practices. They have helped in managing the huge transition that China has undergone from the 1970s onwards. China has historically made use of a number of mechanisms to encourage learning from innovative and emergent policy practices. Policy evaluation is increasingly becoming a tool used to probe emergent practices and inform iterative policy making/refining. This paper examines the case of a central policy research institute whose mandate includes evaluating reforms and providing feedback to the health ministry. Evaluation approaches being used are evolving as Chinese research agencies become increasingly professionalised, and in response to the increasing complexity of reforms. The paper argues that learning from widespread innovation and experimentation is challenging, but necessary for stewardship of large, and rapidly-changing systems.

This paper presents the PESERA-DESMICE integrated model developed in the EU FP6 DESIRE project. PESERA-DESMICE combines a process-based erosion prediction model extended with process descriptions to evaluate the effects of measures to mitigate land degradation, and a spatially-explicit economic evaluation model to evaluate the financial viability of these measures. The model operates on a grid-basis and is capable of addressing degradation problems due to wind and water erosion, grazing, and fire. It can evaluate the effects of improved management strategies such as maintaining soil cover, retention of crop residues, irrigation, water harvesting, terracing, and strip cropping. These management strategies introduce controls to various parameters slowing down degradation processes. The paper first describes how the physical impact of the various management strategies is assessed. It then continues to evaluate the applicability limitations of the various mitigation options, and to inventory the spatial variation in the investment and maintenance costs involved for each of a series of technologies that are deemed relevant in a given study area. The physical effects of the implementation of the management strategies relative to the situation without mitigation are subsequently valuated in monetary terms. The model pays particular attention to the spatial variation in the costs and benefits involved as a function of environmental conditions and distance to markets. All costs and benefits are added to a cash flow and a discount rate is applied. This allows a cost-benefit analysis(CBA) to be performed over a comparative planning period based on the economic lifetime of the technologies being evaluated. It is assumed that land users will only potentially implement technologies if they are financially viable. After this framework has been set-up, various analyses can be made, including the effect of policy options on the potential uptake of mitigation measures and an analysis of where cost-effectiveness is highest. Apart from model description, we present case studies of the use of the framework to illustrate its functioning and relevance for policy-making.

The paper offers an updated picture of the policies implemented by the government of the Guangdong Province (China) to foster the industrial development and the technological upgrading of its territories. Among these policies is the promotion and the institutional acknowledgement of a growing number of industrial clusters, defined as “Specialised Towns”, characterized by a high spatial concentration of firms producing one specific item (or a limited range of similar products). In the view of the provincial and local governments these types of industrial development programs are used to increase firm agglomerations, spatial concentration and visibility, which in turn leads to increased specialisation, industrial output, innovation and economic growth. However, little specific empirical evidence has been collected to support this view and the debate, at the national and international level, on the effectiveness of such interventions seems to be still largely ideological. The paper offers a contribution in this sense by offering a detailed description of the policy tools, by suggesting synthetic indexes to quantify policy efforts and industrial performances in Guangdong territories and by providing a first statistical analysis of these indexes.

The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of empirical cross-country growth literature. The paper begins with describing the basic framework used in recent empirical crosscountry growth research. Even though this literature was mainly inspired by endogenous growth theories, the neoclassical growth model is still the workhorse for cross-country growth empirics. The second part of the paper emphasises model uncertainty, which is indeed immense but generally neglected in the empirical cross-country growth literature. The most outstanding feature of the literature is that a large number of factors have been suggested as fundamental growth determinants. Together with the small sample property, this leads to an important problem: model uncertainty. The questions which factors are more fundamental in explaining growth dynamics and hence growth differences are still the subject of academic research. Recent attempts based on general-to-specific modeling or model averaging are promising but have their own limits. Finally, the paper highlights the implications of model uncertainty for policy evaluation.

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Research Policy. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2011 Elsevier B.V. The presence of universities has generally been associated with technological entrepreneurship. But what is the real impact of new universities on the levels of firm creation in a region? The present paper uses policy evaluation methodologies and longitudinal data on the establishment of higher education institutions in Portuguese municipalities for the period 1992–2002 to examine its effect on entry rates of new firms in different sectors. We find that the establishment of a new university has a positive and significant effect on subsequent levels of knowledge based firm entry in municipalities, and a negative effect on the levels of entry in other sectors, such as low-tech manufacturing.

This paper introduces a method to analyse and explore consistency within policy mixes in order to support the policymaking cycle and applies it to energy and climate change policies in the United Kingdom (UK) biofuels policy context. The first part of the paper introduces a multi-level method to evaluate consistency within policy mixes implemented over a period of time. The first level explores consistency across policy design features in policy mixes. The second level evaluates how stakeholders, and their interactions with policy instruments and each other, can impact consistency within a given context. These interactions influence the implementation of policies and can lead to unintended outcomes that fail to meet the overarching goals. In the second part of the paper, we apply our method to the UK biofuels policy mix, to explore a sector that cuts across the policy areas of transportation, energy, land-use, air, and climate change. Our analysis demonstrates how, by overlooking complex interactions in the design and implementation of policies in the biofuels sector, policy mixes have conflicted with the development of a potential low-carbon technology.

This paper offers arguments that policy evaluation should be considered and researched as a distinctive field with its own challenges and limits. The paper puts forthsome of the approaches that might be useful in policy evaluation endeavors. In order to achieve this task, the definition and some of the most important concepts of evaluation are reviewed first, using a variety of sources. The concluding discussion emphasizes some of the directions for research in the area of policy evaluation, singling out strategies as a useful policy tool for the use of policy evaluation attempts.

This paper studies the effect of women’s higher education on fertility outcomes in Ethiopia. We exploit an abrupt increase in the supply of tertiary education induced by a deregulation policy. Using an age discontinuity in the exposure to higher education reform, we find that education lowers fertility by 8% and increases the likelihood of never giving birth by 25%. We explore the role of potential underlying mechanisms and find that this negative effect on fertility is channeled through positive assortative mating and the postponement of marriage and motherhood., CINCH working paper series, vol. 2015, no. 09

Like many post-industrial cities around the world, Hong Kong has been experiencing de-industrialisation since the 1980s, and revitalisation of multi-storey industrial buildings within a high-density development context is necessary. Focussing on recent progress in revitalisation of industrial buildings in Hong Kong, this research investigates the Government regulations and market responses. It is found that simply relieving the regulations and institutional constraints in revitalisation does not work, either for the policy aim in a narrow sense or for the local economy in a broad sense. New revitalisation measures by the Government have led to new constraints in revitalisation. It is necessary to address the policy lag. This paper presents an opening statement of discussing effectiveness of revitalisation policy in terms of urban competitiveness. It advocates some general principles and goals been taken into account in making revitalisation policy, including industrial diversity, indigenously owned companies, social costs and quality of life., Highlights • This research focuses on recent progress in revitalisation of industrial buildings in Hong Kong. • This paper investigates Government regulations and market responses in the process. • New revitalisation measures by the Government have led to new constraints in revitalisation. • It is necessary to discuss policy effectiveness from a perspective of urban competitiveness to cope with policy lag. • The paper advocates some general principles and goals to be taken into account in making revitalisation policy.

This paper investigates the effects of tuition fees on the university enrollment and location decision of high school graduates in Germany. After a Federal Constitutional Court decision in 2005, 7 out of 16 German federal states introduced tuition fees for higher education. In the empirical analysis, we use the variation over time and across regions in this institutional change in order to isolate the causal effect of tuition fees on student enrollment and migration. Controlling for a range of regional- and university-specific effects, our results from Difference-in-Differences estimations show that there is generally no effect of tuition fees on internal enrollment rates. However, we find a redirecting effect on first-year students' migratory behavior as indicated by a signicant drop in the gross in-migration rates in fee-charging states. Further, our results point at a stronger migration response of male students, which, however, can mainly be attributed to a 'border effect'. That is, interregional migration flows of male students are redirected from fee-charging universities to those universities that are geographically close by while being located in a non-charging neighboring state. Controlling for these border effects, the relocating trend in long-distance migration of university freshmen does not show any particular gender differences. Diese Studie analysiert Effekte der Einführung von Studiengebühren in Deutschland auf das Einschreibe- und Mobilitätsverhalten von Studienberechtigten. Nach der Entscheidung des Bundesverfassungsgerichts im Jahr 2005, die das vorherige Gebührenverbot für verfassungswidrig erklärte, erhoben 7 von 16 Bundesländern Beiträge für ein Hochschulstudium. Die empirische Analyse nutzt die regionale Variation dieser Reform, um den kausalen Effekt der Gebühreneinführung auf Einschreiberaten und innerdeutsche Migration zu identifizieren. Nach Kontrolle für regionale als auch hochschulspezifische Effekte zeigen die Ergebnisse von Differenz-in-Differenzen-Schätzungen keinen generellen Effekt auf landesinterne Einschreiberaten. Allerdings wird ein Umverteilungseffekt bezüglich der Wanderung von Studienanfängern gefunden, welcher sich in einem signifikanten Rückgang der Brutto-Einwanderungsraten in Gebührenländer zeigt. Dieser Effekt ist für männliche Studienberechtigte stärker ausgeprägt und kann größtenteils einem 'Grenzeffekt' zugeschrieben werden. Dies bedeutet, dass Migrationsströme bei Männern von Gebührenländern umgeleitet werden, und zwar zu Hochschulen in benachbarten Nicht-Gebührenländern, die in der Nähe von Bundeslandgrenzen gelegen sind. Wenn für diesen Grenzeffekt kontrolliert wird, werden keine Geschlechterunterschiede im Wanderungsverhalten über längere Distanzen beobachtet.

Bus priority covers a wide range of measures intended to speed up the progress of buses and avoid congestion, especially in urban areas. The implementation of No Car Lanes as a method of allocating space on the highway differs from conventional bus priority measures since No Car Lanes give priority not just to buses but to other vehicles, facilitating the movement of goods as well as people in congested urban areas. This paper compares the impact of the different eligibility requirements of ‘warrants’ on the different classes of traffic using the road network in the single location of Tyne and Wear in the north-east of England, UK and reports quantification of benefits and disadvantages to give an improved understanding of the contribution of No Car Lanes within the more general context of bus priority measures. The motivation for the study was to give an evidence based approach to the development of conurbation-wide policy. The paper concludes that the balance of evidence suggests No Car Lanes are preferable for all motorised modes (car, HGV, taxi and bus). From a practical point of view having many short lengths of priority lane (of whatever form) lowers the benefit arising from priority as well as having an adverse effect on user and non-user attitudes towards priority lanes. The modelling suggests that the impact on the environment is less negative from No Car Lanes. Against this is the less positive evidence for No Car Lanes in terms of road safety and enforcement.

This paper presents an endogenous growth model where, in line with the recent em- pirical evidence, the telecommunications industry (telecom) is an engine of growth. In such a framework, this paper analyzes the channels through which telecom con- tributes to economic growth and focuses on market structure analysis for telecom, in the light of the recent changes in it. This paper suggests how the market struc- ture of telecom and the competition type in the telecom market can matter for its contribution to economic growth. It also proposes the optimal market structure for telecom from the social welfare perspective. In addition, it suggests the direction of telecom policies which can improve social welfare, and uses its theoretical results for qualitative evaluation of the Telecommunications Act of 1996 and similar policies.

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the 'European Economic Review' 2013, 58, 31-57. In this paper, we use a recent policy change in the Netherlands to study how changes in search requirements for the older unemployed affect their transition rates to employment, early retirement and sickness/disability benefits. The reform, becoming effective on January 1st 2004, required the elderly to formally report their job search efforts to the employment office in order to avoid a (temporary) cut in benefits. Before the new law was passed, unemployed were allowed to stop all search activity at the moment they turned 57.5. Estimating various duration models using difference-in-difference and regression discontinuity approaches, we find that for several groups of individuals that were affected by the policy change, the stricter search requirements did significantly increase their entry rate into employment. However, we also find evidence of a higher outflow to sickness/disability insurance schemes, a presumably unwanted side-effect of the policy change.

Since Reddito Minimo d'Inserimento pilot experiment ended, a number of papers have attempted to study minimum income policies in Italy. Contributions have aimed at providing insight for possible future program implementations. In this paper we present a case study as an applied contribution to this debate. We analyze a minimum income support program implemented in a small town in the South of Italy, Mola di Bari, by using a new dataset which has been designed and collected for the purpose. With respect to the program, we describe the policy intervention and we analyze such issues as (i) the eligibility criteria, (ii) the targeting choices and results, (iii) the distributive and the welfare effects on the beneficiaries and on the overall town population (iv) the incentive effects, i.e. the effects on the labour market partecipation.

This review presents empiricalresearcherswith recent advances in causal inference, and stresses the paradigmatic shifts that must be un- dertaken in moving from traditionalstatistical analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Special emphasis is placed on the assumptions that un- derly all causal inferences, the languages used in formulating those assump- tions, the conditional nature of all causal and counterfactual claims, and the methods that have been developed for the assessment of such claims. These advances are illustrated using a general theory of causation based on the Structural Causal Model (SCM) described in Pearl (2000a), which subsumes and unifies other approaches to causation, and provides a coher- ent mathematical foundation for the analysis of causes and counterfactuals. In particular, the paper surveys the development of mathematical tools for inferring (from a combination of data and assumptions) answers to three types of causal queries: (1) queries about the effects of potential interven- tions, (also called "causal effects" or "policy evaluation") (2) queries about probabilities of counterfactuals, (including assessment of "regret," "attri- bution" or "causes of effects") and (3) queries about direct and indirect effects (also known as "mediation"). Finally, the paper defines the formal and conceptual relationships between the structural and potential-outcome frameworks and presents tools for a symbiotic analysis that uses the strong features of both.

This paper is part of the project: "IDB's Science and Technology Programs: An Evaluation of the Technology Development Funds (TDF) and Competitive Research Grants (CRG)." This paper analyzes the role of National Research Funds in promoting scientific production in emerging economies. The investigation focuses on the impact of the Chilean National Science and Technology Research Fund (FONDECYT). To measure the program's impact, we implement a Regression Discontinuity (RD) design on projects submitted for funding between 1988 and 1995. The results do not show any significant impact either in terms of publications or in terms of quality of publications in the proximity of the program threshold ranking. Although results show that the program has been partially effective in identifying the best projects in terms of expected quality, evidence suggests that the FONDECYT's lack of impact may be due to targeting problems in terms of both researchers and research projects.

An assessment of the economic impact that can be achieved through grants makes it possible to refine such policy instruments in order to make public funding more effective in relation to the objectives pursued. In this paper, we investigate the effects of a business development grant scheme. More specifically we question whether firms’ performance measures increased after receiving such grants. Methodically, we match grant receiving firms with grant non-receivers and estimate the average treatment effect on the treated using a two way fixed effects regression. Our results point towards a positive effect of the grant scheme, which is particularly evident for firms of smaller size. Our estimated dose- response functions show that the share of grant amount in firm profits needs to be high enough for the grants to be effective. According to back of- the envelope analysis, benefits outweigh the direct scheme costs.

Significance International carbon markets are an appealing and increasingly popular tool to regulate carbon emissions. They put a price on carbon emissions and make pollution less attractive for regulated firms. However, carbon markets often produce prices which are deemed too low relative to the social cost of carbon. We argue that despite low prices, carbon markets can help reduce emissions. Using a statistical model and sectoral emissions data, we find that the EU ETS, which initially regulated roughly 50% of EU carbon emissions from mainly energy production and large industrial polluters, saved more than 1 billion tons of CO2 between 2008 and 2016. This translates to reductions of 3.8% of total EU-wide emissions compared to a world without the EU ETS., International carbon markets are an appealing and increasingly popular tool to regulate carbon emissions. By putting a price on carbon, carbon markets reshape incentives faced by firms and reduce the value of emissions. How effective are carbon markets? Observers have tended to infer their effectiveness from market prices. The general belief is that a carbon market needs a high price in order to reduce emissions. As a result, many observers remain skeptical of initiatives such as the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), whose price remained low (compared to the social cost of carbon). In this paper, we assess whether the EU ETS reduced CO2 emissions despite low prices. We motivate our study by documenting that a carbon market can be effective if it is a credible institution that can plausibly become more stringent in the future. In such a case, firms might cut emissions even though market prices are low. In fact, low prices can be a signal that the demand for carbon permits weakens. Thus, low prices are compatible with successful carbon markets. To assess whether the EU ETS reduced carbon emissions even as permits were cheap, we estimate counterfactual carbon emissions using an original sectoral emissions dataset. We find that the EU ETS saved about 1.2 billion tons of CO2 between 2008 and 2016 (3.8%) relative to a world without carbon markets, or almost half of what EU governments promised to reduce under their Kyoto Protocol commitments. Emission reductions in sectors covered under the EU ETS were higher.

RESUMO A existência de milhões de jovens que nem estudam nem trabalham, os denominados nem-nem, tem implicações danosas para a sociedade e para a economia. Este estudo foca nos principais custos econômicos associados à ociosidade desses jovens por meio do Propensity Score Macthing. Os resultados revelam que os jovens nem-nem representaram um custo de 0,6% do PIB em 2015. Considerando esse significante custo anual, e a trajetória crescente desse contingente juvenil nos últimos anos, há que se clamar pela implementação de políticas que contenham esse crescimento, a fim de se evitar severos prejuízos de ordem econômica e social no longo prazo. ABSTRACT The existence of millions of youths remain in the NEET status brings severe implications for the society and for the economy. Thus, this paper focuses on the main costs associated with the neet youth idleness through the Propensity Score Matching. The results reveal that the neet youths accounted for a cost of 0.6% of the GDP in 2015. Considering this significant annual cost and the increasing amount of neet youths in the last years, there is to be claimed for policies that hinder such a growing path in order to avoid severe economic and social losses in the long run.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relation between government measures, volunteer participation, climate variables and forest fires. A number of studies have related forest fires to causes of ignition, to fire history in one area, to the type of vegetation and weather characteristics or to community institutions, but there is little research on the relation between fire production and government prevention and extinction measures from a policy evaluation perspective. An observational approach is first applied to select forest fires in the north east of Spain. Taking a selection of fires with a certain size, a multiple regression analysis is conducted to find significant relations between policy instruments under the control of the government and the number of hectares burn in each case, controlling at the same time the effect of weather conditions and other context variables. The paper brings evidence on the effects of simultaneity and the relevance of recurring to army soldiers in specific days with extraordinary high simultaneity. The analysis also brings light on the effectiveness of two preventive policies and of helicopters for extinction tasks.

Many US cities are addressing climate change by setting goals to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by a specified amount within a specified time period. In order to achieve these goals, reducing emissions from existing buildings is crucial. Many cities are passing legislation to target existing buildings through benchmarking, auditing, retuning, or energy or emissions performance standards. As cities design legislation, they must consider the timing of the policies, how to prioritize building types and sizes, and how these design decisions will impact the city’s emissions. This paper addresses these questions for one particular US city: Seattle, Washington. A model of Seattle’s building stock was created with benchmarking and tax assessor data. It was then used to predict GHG emissions reductions due to different policy implementations for existing commercial and multifamily buildings. Key findings are: (1) the proposed emissions policy is expected to reduce cumulative emissions from buildings by 19% between 2020 and 2050; (2) delaying the implementation of the policy by five years could limit savings to 12%; and (3) including smaller buildings in the policy could increase savings to 34%. The lessons learned and how this can be used by other cities are discussed. Policy relevance As cities design legislation for energy performance standards, they must consider the impact that the timing of policies, prioritization of building types and sizes, and electrification will have on the city’s GHG emissions. A new process is presented that can assist policymakers to understand the impacts of policy decisions on decarbonizing the building stock. A model of Seattle’s building stock was created to predict emissions reductions due to different policy implementation scenarios. This model shows the impact of Seattle’s proposed emissions policy. The current policy is expected to reduce cumulative emissions from buildings by 19% between 2020 and 2050. If the implementation of the policy is delayed by five years, then cumulative emissions savings would be reduced to 12%. The inclusion of smaller buildings in the policy could increase cumulative emissions savings to 34%. Other cities can use this process to better understand their proposed policies for their building stock.

To effectively mitigate climate change, it is crucial to better understand the reaction of fossil-fuel demand to price and tax changes, and more precisely to climate policy instruments such as a carbon levy. The Swiss CO2 levy on heating fuels was introduced in 2008 at CHF 12/tCO2eq, and was increased steadily up to CHF 84/tCO2eq during the period of 2016/2017. This paper investigated the effectiveness of the levy as an instrument to reduce heating fuel demand, and hence carbon emissions, of private real estate owners. The Swiss Household Budget Survey 2006–2017 constituted the main data source. Before–after and pseudo-panel regressions were used to capture the CO2 levy’s effects, and a large set of household characteristics, as well as climatic conditions, were controlled for. No significant effects in the first two policy periods of 2008–2013 were found. Over the period of 2014–2017, a significant reduction in house owners’ heating fuel demand of up to 14% with respect to 2006–2007 was detected. The effect was less significant and smaller in magnitude for flat owners. A significant CO2 levy semielasticity of heating fuel demand of −1.3% for house owners was further estimated. Hence, the results confirmed the effectiveness of the CO2 levy under the conditions that the levy was sufficiently high, as during the years of 2014–2017, and households directly paid the levy and were responsible for decisions concerning heating and insulation, as was the case for house owners.

Volume-based drug purchasing by China’s health insurance system currently represents the largest group purchasing organization worldwide. After exchanging the market that accounted for nearly half of the volume of the healthcare system for the ultra-low-price supply of limited drugs, what are the effects on patient and funding burdens, drug accessibility, and clinical efficacy? We aimed to verify the effectiveness of the policy, explore the reasons behind the problem and identify regulatory priorities and collaborative measures. We used literature and reported data from 2019 to 2021 to conduct a stakeholder analysis and health impact assessment, presenting the benefit and risk share for various dimensions. The analysis method was a multidimensional scaling model, which visualized problematic associations. Seventy-nine papers (61 publications and 18 other resources) were included in the study, with 22 effects and 36 problems identified. The results indicated favorable affordability and poor accessibility of drugs, as well as high risk of reduced drug quality and drug-use rationality. The drug-use demand of patients was guaranteed; the prescription rights of doctors regarding clinical drug use were limited; unreasonable evaluation indicators limited the transformation of public hospitals to value- and service-oriented organizations; the sustainability of health insurance funds and policy promotion were at risk; and innovation by pharmaceutical companies was accelerated. The problems associated with high co-occurrence frequencies were divided into the following clusters: cost control, drug accessibility, system rationality, policy fairness, drug quality, and moral hazards. These findings suggested that China has achieved short-term success in reducing the burden on patients and reducing fund expenditure. However, there were still deficiencies in guaranteed supply, quality control, and efficacy tracking. The study offers critical lessons for China and other low- and middle-income countries.

The issue of time horizons has received scant attention in discussions pertaining to health economic evaluations unlike discounting or translation of health outcomes into life-cycle measures (e.g. quality-adjusted life years or disability-adjusted life years). The available guidelines do not offer clear and consistent guidance for many problems addressed in health economic evaluations. In practice, variation of time horizons between studies for the same diseases is a matter of concern, as results on cost-effectiveness depend on the time horizon. Our paper contributes to establishing a consistent approach to setting time horizons across common types of health economic evaluations and mitigating potential bias where the choice of a time horizon may affect results of the evaluation. We find that available guidance is clear only for patient-focused interventions, but not in the presence of population-level effects owing to transmission of infections or other linkages. We distinguish between a policy period—over which an intervention is delivered or initiated—and an evaluation period over which the effects are measured. One important challenge in establishing a time horizon for evaluation is that, at least for infectious diseases, the state of the epidemic at the end of the policy period cannot be evaluated precisely and incorporated in the results of an economic evaluation. While longer policy periods partly mitigate this challenge, they are subject to greater uncertainty, and outcomes may not adequately reflect the cost-effectiveness of current policies because outcomes reflect an average over the policy period. Incremental analysis on interventions implemented in sub-periods of the policy period (especially at the beginning) potentially improves accuracy and helps to identify potential for improving cost-effectiveness by varying the path of implementation or the mix of interventions offered over time.

In most countries, minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) and energy labels are the key policies to accelerate the diffusion of energy-efficient appliances and to help meet energy efficiency and climate policy targets. This paper estimates country-specific multivariate econometric models for eight EU countries over the period of 2007–2017 to evaluate the combined effects of changes in the MEPS and the energy labels entering into force in the EU in 2010 and 2011. The findings suggest that these policies increased the market share of cold appliances (refrigerators and fridge-freezer combinations) with an energy label of A+ and better between about 15 and 38 percentage points. For these appliances, autonomous developments (captured through a time trend) are estimated to range between 5 and 10 percentage points per year. Thus, failure to account for autonomous developments would have resulted in substantially overestimating the combined effects of MEPS and energy label policies in the EU. The findings further imply that policy evaluations should allow for policy effectiveness and autonomous developments to differ across countries.

In this paper, we discuss the state of the art in research and policy making related to the dynamics of financing innovation, highlighting gaps in the literature and setting up the objectives of this Special Issue. We also provide a discussion of methodological issues and future directions for the stream of studies aiming at the evaluation of the effectiveness and impact of policies to finance innovation. Finally, we discuss how the articles in this collection contribute to improve our understanding of the financing of innovation along different perspectives.