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The U.S. economic expansion since 2009 is the longest on record since 1854, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycle Dating Committee. This paper seeks to understand this phenomenon better by looking at the time paths of popular narratives over this interval, of stories that people have been telling that offer clues into their economic behavior. Six constellations of narratives are studied, identified by keywords “Great Depression,” “secular stagnation,” “sustainability,” “housing bubble,” “strong economy,” and “save more.” Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Non-ferrous metals are important basic raw material in the urbanization and industrialization process, the sustainable development of non-ferrous metal industry (NMI) is important for China's economy development. To clarify the decoupling status and its driving factors of China's 29 NMIs, this paper integrated Tapio index and a comprehensive decomposition approach to estimate the decoupling degree and further decompose the decoupling index of China's NMI. The results indicate that during 2004–2017, China's NMI experienced five different decoupling statuses (i.e., weak decoupling, expansive coupling, expansive negative decoupling, strong decoupling, and strong negative decoupling) and dominated by weak decoupling. View the whole study period, the decoupling relationship gradually towards to a lower decoupling level. Energy-saving technology progress was a dominant contributor facilitated decoupling process, while energy-saving technology gap change impeded the decoupling process in most industries except four manufacturing and rolling processing industries. Potential energy intensity also was an important factors facilitated decoupling process in most industries. Additionally, production technology change played a mild role in promoting decoupling process in most NMIs. Briefly, the decoupling process and its driving factors were distinctly various among 29 different NMIs, thus the decoupling policies should be established and implemented tailored to their characteristics.

Context Transnational alcohol corporations (TACs) employ a range of strategies to achieve their business objectives, including attempts to frame perceptions of their activities in media debates. TACs aim to achieve a favourable regulatory environment by presenting themselves as socially responsible actors. However, the need to secure financial investment means they must also emphasise their potential for growth. This article investigates tensions between these objectives in coverage of the global alcohol industry in the UK print media. Methods This article examines coverage of the world's four largest TACs in five British daily newspapers and one industry publication between March 2012 and February 2013. 477 articles were identified for analysis through keyword searches of the LexisNexis database. Thematic coding of articles was conducted using Nvivo software. Findings Two conflicting framings of the alcohol industry emerge from our analysis. The first presents TACs as socially responsible actors; key partners to government in reducing alcohol-related harms. This is targeted at policy-makers and the public in an attempt to shape policy debates. The second framing highlights TACs' potential for economic growth by establishing new markets and identifying new customer bases. This is targeted at an audience of potential investors. Conclusions A fundamental contradiction lies at the heart of these framings, reflecting the tensions that exist between TACs' political and financial strategies. Alcohol industry involvement in policy-making thus involves a fundamental conflict of interests. Consequently, the UK government should reassess the prominence it currently affords to the industry in the development and delivery of alcohol policy.

Environmental degradation remains a huge obstacle to sustainable development. Research on the factors that promote or degrade the environment has been extensively conducted. However, one important variable that has conspicuously received very limited attention is energy innovations. To address this gap in the literature, this study investigated the effects of energy innovations on environmental quality in the U.S. for the period 1974 to 2016. We have incorporated GDP and immigration as additional regressors. Three indices comprising of CO2 emissions, ecological footprint and carbon footprint were used to proxy environmental degradation. The cointegration tests established long-run relationships between the variables. Using a maximum likelihood approach with a break, the results showed evidence that energy innovations significantly improve environmental quality while GDP degrades the quality of the environment, and immigration has no significant effect on the environment. Policy implications of the results are discussed in the body of the manuscript.

China’s transport industry is energy intensive and high-polluting. While with the surging urbanization and the development of service industry, China’s economic relies more and more on the transport sector. Therefore, exploring the relationship between transport energy-related carbon emission (TECE) and economic development is crucial to the realization of China’s “Post Paris” mitigation target. The paper carries out a decoupling research between TECE and Gross domestic product (GDP) at both national level and province level based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition analysis with the extended Kaya identity and Tapio decoupling model. The model quantifies eight factors’ effects on the relationship with focusing on external macro socio-economic related factors (i.e., spatial pattern, urbanization, per capita service industry output value, reciprocal of the service industry’s share of GDP, and demographic variable) successfully. The key conclusions are indicated as follows: (1) the national decoupling status was extensive coupling during 2004–2010 and then weak decoupling during 2010–2016. The progress can be attributed to the decline of energy intensity. (2) Per capita service output was always the prominent factor to promote carbon emissions growth in different time periods and provinces with inhibiting the advancement of decoupling process, followed by urbanization. (3) Scenario analysis shows that with the continuous growth of traffic demand and the promotion of urbanization, improving energy efficiency has become the key link to realize the decoupling between China’s TECE and its economy.

This paper examines the impact of policies and programs implemented by the United States federal government during the 1990's on poor Americans. The primary objective of this review is to determine how poverty reduction policies and programs, along with the significant economic expansion of the United States economy during the 1990's impacted the economic predicament of people living below the poverty line.

The paper presents an attempt to describe a production induced evolution of the economy with identical homogeneous preferences and strictly convex production sets. The proposed phenomenological model is based on the regular behaviour of the multiple equilibrium prices and production vectors established in the paper, as the production period tends to zero, which allows for a consistent definition of the product rates and the assumption that the characteristic time scale of relaxation of the equilibria is much less than that associated with the production. The system of differential equations thus obtained is studied for the case of two commodities. The results and several examples with three commodities show an asymptotical price and production rates stabilization.

This paper uses a conventional two-sector real trade model and demonstrates how, within that framework, the relative price effect resulting from a demand expansion in one country may quite plausibly generate negative effects in overall activity abroad. It is shown how, under the chosen assumptions of wage rigidities, the transmission of an expansion which occurs through the relative price effect may be decomposed into (a) an employment effect and (b) a terms-of-trade effect, either of which may be positive or negative. Expansions resulting from (i) an increase in the money supply and (ii) increases in government expenditure on the importable and exportable commodity are discussed.

Reducing energy intensity and coping with climate change are important policy issues that face all countries. This study examines the impact of business cycles (recessions and expansions) on energy intensity in sixteen emerging countries in 1990–2014. We find that during periods of economic expansion (recessions), business cycles reduce (increase) energy intensity. We also study the moderating effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) between business cycles and energy intensity and find that FDI lowers (raises) energy intensity in countries with high (low) level economic development. In addition, this study finds a nonlinear relationship between business cycles and energy intensity. Policy implications of the findings are discussed.

The drive toward the attainment of sustainable environment globally through clean energy development or energy efficiency is not more desirable than in the 21st century, thus the existential policy moderations of economic, trade and security mechanisms. On this premise, and foremost in the literature, the current study examined the country-specific (for the United States) and the driving impacts of economic policy uncertainty, trade policy and national security on the development of cleaner energy sources by using quarterly frequency time series data for period 1990:Q1-2018:Q2. By employing economic expansion as additional factor, the study implemented the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Testing approach to reveal interesting results: (1) there is a significant evidence that economic expansion, economic policy uncertainty (EU), trade policy (TP), and national security (NS) exhibits long term properties in common, (2) the increase in economic expansion and NS effectiveness significantly yields more cleaner energy development, and (3) a more tightened TP and high EU are statistically significant and detrimental to the development of clean energy. The Granger causality evidence substantiates the role economic expansion, TP, EU and national security in renewable energy development. Generally, the study posits cleaner and energy efficiency policy directive for policymakers in the United States and other countries of interest from the framework of climate action and sustainable development.

This paper deals with issues arising in Solow's growth model when contrasted with Marx's schemes of expanded reproduction. More specifically, we argue that Solow's growth model lacks the crucial dynamic features of capital accumulation derived from the long-term movement of the rate of profit, which are well integrated in classical political economy. Classical economists discussed the attainment of the stationary state of the economy as a result of a falling rate of profit eliminating net investment. In Solow's growth model, however, the seemingly stationary state is proved to be a ‘saddle’ point, an aspect that has not received appropriate attention in the extant economic growth literature. By contrast, in Marx's analysis of absolute overaccumulation resulting from the falling profit rate the system is driven to a turning point and the conditions for major institutional changes that may lead to a new period of economic expansion are set.

A crime epidemic appears to have erupted in many advanced economies, raising questions on whether higher unemployment leads to greater incidence of crime. In this paper, we establish a robust connection between unemployment and crime, considering both violent and non-violent crimes, in a 4 variable time-varying VAR setting in identifying four shocks: unemployment, output, migration fear, and crime shocks. Using data from France and the UK over the time period 1975Q1 to 2013Q4 and 1983Q1 to 2018Q2 respectively, we find significant positive effects of unemployment shocks on crime rates in both countries, particularly so during the times of economic contraction. We also find that crime rates decline during times of economic expansion (in response to a positive shock in GDP growth). Considering shocks in migration fears, we find that migration fears are fuelling higher incidence of crime in France, whereas unemployment shock continues to drive crime rates in the UK. Undertaking further analysis for a single country at quarterly frequency for the UK, and with panel data from 24 countries at annual frequency over the period 1998 to 2016, we support our main hypothesis that higher unemployment rate tends to increase non-violent crime. Our results imply that maintaining stable economic activity is critical in order to stabilize incidence of non-violent crime. These findings have political significance, given the recent unprecedented levels of concern and uncertainty about migration in European countries.

This paper endeavors to shed light on the asymmetric heterogeneous relationship between energy use and economic growth in nineteen selected African countries from 1971 to 2014. We employ, to this end, a nonlinear panel autoregressive distributed lag model and an asymmetric panel causality test. The empirical results suggest that the relationship between energy use and economic growth is asymmetric and depends on the phases of economic cycle. Firstly, in periods of economic expansion, positive shocks on energy use have a positive and significant effect on economic growth in the long-run but have a weak positive effect in the short-run. Negative shocks on energy use have a negative and significant effect on economic growth in the long-run but a positive and significant effect in the short-run. Moreover, in periods of economic expansion, economic growth tends to react more to a decrease in energy use than to an increase in energy use. Secondly, in period of economic contraction, positive shocks on energy use accentuate the negative variation of economic growth in the long-run while in the short-run, economic contraction is resorb by negative shocks on energy use. Thirdly, net energy-importing economies located in North Africa, East Africa, Central Africa and Southern Africa are the most subject to energy asymmetric shocks. For net energy-exporting countries, the asymmetric relationship between energy use and economic growth is mixed. We also find that negative changes in economic activity lead to negative variations of energy use. Fourthly, positive and negative shocks on the cyclical components of energy use and economic growth do not have, over the time, the same correlation with positive and negative shocks of one or other of the variables. From the research that has been carried out, it appears that sound economic policy decisions require information on the asymmetric linkage between energy use and economic growth.

Which factors have driven fiscal revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa in the long run? We address this question by studying quantitatively the long-term relationship between fiscal outcomes, economic expansion and external dependency in four francophone West African countries – Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Niger and Senegal – between 1893 and 2010. Using panel co-integration modelling we find a long-term relationship between, on the one hand, tax revenue and local economic development, proxied by international trade, and, on the other hand, tax revenue and developments of the economy and taxation in the former colonizing power France. The results indicate that economic expansion has been a significant factor in driving the long-term development of tax revenue in West Africa, just as it was in historical Europe, but also point to the historical vulnerability and external dependency of the fiscal systems of the four West African countries. We suggest that the wider implication of these results is that they point to the importance of deepening our understanding of how domestic contexts interact with external economic and institutional external forces to shape African fiscal systems, in contrast to factors such as inter-state warfare that are ubiquitous in narratives of historical European taxation and state development.

Multifaceted social processes have shaped long-term economic dynamics in Europe with apparent spatial outcomes. The construction sector has been one of the industries with the most evident (crisis-driven) change in Greece, likely the most affected country in Europe. With the aim at providing a comprehensive knowledge of short-term dynamics in real estate local markets, the present study investigates spatial variations in the value of new dwellings at 54 Greek prefectures over sequential economic downturns (2000–2014). Supplemented with contextual indicators, an exploratory framework based on non-parametric correlations, multivariate statistics, and spatial regressions, was run to identify geographical patterns in the average dwelling value characteristic of economic expansion (2000–2007) and recession (2007–2014). The average value of new dwellings per surface area increased in a spatially heterogeneous fashion across Greece, with significant differences between the two time intervals. With economic expansion, the highest values of new dwellings were more likely observed in dynamic districts with agglomeration economies, upper socioeconomic functions, and transport accessibility. With recession, the spatial distribution of dwelling values was more heterogeneous and decoupled from the socioeconomic profile of local contexts, with the highest growth rate recorded in accessible rural districts and coastal areas - including islands. Spatial changes in the average dwelling value reflect the (evolving) geography of economic performance and wealth accumulation in Greece. A comprehensive investigation of the role of economic downturns shaping dwelling values over space provides the appropriate background to inform post-crisis development measures.

United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN-SDGs) such as access to clean energy (SDG-7), responsible energy consumption (SDG-12) and sustainable economic growth revolves around the subject of human development that resonates with (SDG-8), and among others. Based on these highlights, this study examines sustainable development for the panel of selected Sub-Sahara African countries that are largely plagued with huge energy deficit (energy poverty) and setback in technological innovation. This study leverages on panel econometrics strategies to explore the hypothesized relationship between the outlined indicators for the period 2000–2016 in Sub-Saharan African countries. Empirical results show that human development index (HDI), economic expansion, access to clean energy. and technological innovation exhibits long-run equilibrium relationship. Subsequently, the finding revealed that economic expansion, access to energy and technological innovation in the sampled countries spur higher HDI indices. That is, a 1% increase in economic growth increases HDI by 0.040% and 0.017% in the short and long run respectively. Thus, we can infer that enhanced sustainable economic growth leads to higher HDI indices which encompases higher literacy rate, better income level and increase life expectancy in both short and long run. In contrary, access to clean energy in the selected blocs dampens HDI index in the short run but the effect is statistically positive (desirable) in the long run.

The study investigates (i) the time-varying and directional connectedness of nine equity sectors through intra- and inter-sector volatility spillover periods and (ii) assesses the impact of state variables on aggregate volatility spillovers. The study finds about 76% of volatility linkage is associated with cross-sector volatility transmissions. Aggressive sectors, which are sensitive to macroeconomic risk, play the net volatility transmission role. Defensive sectors that are largely immune to macroeconomic risk play the net volatility receiving role. The intensity and direction of volatility transmissions among the sectors vary with economic expansion and recession periods. Over time, some sectors switching from net transmitting to net receiving role and vice versa. Macro and financial market uncertainty variables significantly impact volatility spillover at lower volatility spillover (economic expansion period) and higher volatility (economic recession periods) volatility spillover quantiles. Political signals are seemingly more imprecise and uninformative during economic expansion or low quantiles, intensifying volatility spillover. Overall, the causal effects of macro, financial, and policy uncertainty variables on aggregate volatility spillover are asymmetric, nonlinear, and time-varying. The study's result supports the cross-hedging and financial contagion views of volatility transmission across nine US equity sectors.

In times of climate change, biodiversity loss, or growing natural resource scarcity, the circular business model (CBM) concept is increasingly attractive, promoting the reorganization of current value creation architectures and supply chains toward a sustainable system of production and consumption. Driven by a vision of continued economic expansion and growth on a planet with finite natural resources, CBMs are endorsed by political institutions, multinational corporations, business consultancies, and academia. Some argue that CBM configurations contribute to a more holistic and radical change in the existing business logics than approaches that achieve incremental resource efficiency improvements. However, how “holistic” and “radical” are CBMs theoretically constituted in academia if we consider the deep structural and paradigmatic shifts in societies necessary to deal with the challenges associated with the Anthropocene? Prior studies do not examine the inherent normative settings and the operational change approaches beneath CBM concepts. To reconstruct the theoretical foundations of CBMs critically, the recent CBM body of academic literature is systematically reviewed according to (1) the legitimacy of CBMs (why should it be done) (2) the modes of value creation and offerings (what should be done), and (3) the core principles of CBM integration into daily business (how should it be done). From this synthesis, the predominant notion of sustainability behind the CBM concept can be revealed. This study argues contemporary scientifically constructed CBMs need to be reconsidered if they are intended to contribute to a profound economic transition toward sustainability. Hence, the paper shows how principles from more “holistic”, “radical”, and pluralistic economic approaches can widen CBMs and how future research can help to diversify the concept.

This study assesses the effect of tax incentives on scrappage in periods of both economic expansion and crisis. Although such incentives are common during a recession, they may also be useful in renewing the vehicle fleet during other periods in order to reduce pollution and improve road safety. The present analysis is based on panel data covering the period from 2011 to 2017 in Spain, where several schemes were intermittently implemented. Using duration models, we specify the scrappage rate as a function of car age and other factors related to business cycle and transportation sector. On the base of this specification, we control for tax incentives. Our results confirm the relevant impact of car age and scrappage schemes on the scrappage rate and, consequently, on fleet age distribution. Therefore, cash for clunkers schemes may be of interest to policymakers as part of a strategy to reduce pollution and road accidents, regardless of the stage of the business cycle.

The industrial pollution caused by China's unprecedent economic expansion seriously imperils public health, giving rise to public's high demand for better environmental quality. The paper employs the difference-in-differences (DID) methodology to conduct a quasi-natural experiment based on the Pollution Information Transparency Index (PITI) to evaluate the public participation impact on pollution emissions reduction and environment technology efficiency. The results show that PITI information disclosure has a positive influence on pollution emissions reduction, however, some existing literatures may overstate the effect of public participation on environment improvement in China, the empirical results show that government administrative measures still play essential role at current stage. The paper also finds that the influence of public participation exists in eastern China rather than in central and western China. In addition, the results of using environment technology efficiency as outcome variable show insignificant effect, but eastern China has positive environment technology efficiency, suggesting that economic development may increase enterprise technological input, hence achieving mutually beneficial achievements of economy and ecological efficiency.

The sustainable mobility paradigm has dominated the urban transport research agenda for more than a decade. This paradigm focuses on the environmental impacts of travel and the imperative for climate change mitigation, however the specific outcomes of transport in terms of trip type and purpose are not robustly conceptualised, with limited intellectual foundations to understand the ethical considerations of transport service provision. This paper critically considers transport strategies recently developed for London’s Night Time Economy, including policy discourse and technical approaches that shape of transport services provision at night. The case study evaluates the spatiotemporal dimensions of equity. Analysis of policy discourses revealed how night time transport are conceived as an instrumental means to grow the ‘Night Time Economy’, drawing from the conventional wisdom linking accessibility improvements with economic expansion. This strategy viewed ‘London at night’ as a vehicle for economic development, focusing on the consumption-side of the economy and improving individuals’ access to entertainment and recreation. Policy discourse recognised the existence of night-time workers in sectors outside arts and recreation, however, attempts to broaden the ‘Night Time Economy’ agenda to accommodate the travel needs of night-time workers were lost through the narrow selection of accessibility metrics used in transport planning practice. This case demonstrates a missed opportunity to improve transport equity across spatial and temporal dimensions, as night-time workers face severe accessibility barriers, often relying on low-frequency bus services that have inadequate service coverage across Greater London. Scrutinising socio-spatial and temporal dimensions of transport provision can advance more systematic critical perspectives on transport equity by integrating a variety of distributional issues and linking more closely to the practical barriers faced by night-time workers to access transport.

Total and per-capita urbanization rates are increasingly divergent worldwide, indicating an accelerated land consumption and an increased ecological footprint of cities. Under the hypothesis that spatio-temporal divides in total and per-capita urbanization rates are representative of the evolving urban footprint, this study proposed a multivariate analysis of land consumption spatial patterns in a southern European city (Athens, Greece) throughout a building cycle (1948–2015) reflecting sequential waves of economic expansion and stagnation. The footprint's spatial structure was investigated along the urban gradient using descriptive statistics, mapping, multivariate techniques and inferential approaches. The increase of total and per-capita built-up area over time followed a non-linear trend as a result of distinct growth waves. Socioeconomic profiles of municipalities with diverging (total and per-capita) urbanization rates changed over the study period as a result of joint transformations in metropolitan form and functions. Population aging, land-use diversification, vertical profile of buildings and a viable agricultural sector were associated to a low divergence between total and per-capita urbanization rates. Results of our study indicate that effective policies for sustainable development of fringe districts may incorporate urban containment strategies based on specific measures: (i) supporting settlement densification, (ii) stimulating brownfield recovery and (iii) concentrating new development in already fragmented, low-quality land, taking account of the background socioeconomic context and the demographic structure of local communities.

Feedback loops stabilize energy and nutrient flow in ecological food webs and the ecosystems in which they are embedded. In these feedback loops, flow of energy propels nutrients from autotrophs through food chains to decomposers where the nutrients recycle back to autotrophs. An increase or decrease in ecosystem level flows caused by environmental variations triggers an increase or decrease of the populations that comprise the food webs. Conversely, changes in populations cause proportional changes in ecosystem level flows of energy and nutrients, resulting in stability at a different metastable state. In contrast to ecological systems, economic food systems are inherently unstable because they lack effective feedback control. There is inherent system instability caused by incompatibility between the economic system's need to increase farm yield, and the biophysical controls that limit such increase. Money supply that stimulates economic expansion does not generate feedback that could ensure stability of economic food systems and the farms on which they depend.

Based on the stock index of 20 internationally well-known petroleum companies from 27 February, 2001 to 3 July, 2018, we use the binomial probability distribution model to build a daily investor sentiment endurance index to explore the impact of investor sentiment on stock returns of petroleum companies. The results show that, first, the investor sentiment endurance index can effectively predict the stock returns of petroleum companies, and the predictive power will be weakened over time. Second, after considering the impact of macroeconomic environment, the sentiment effect remains significant across all the time horizons. Meanwhile, the sentiment effect appears more stronger in the period of economic expansion and in stock market downturns of oil and gas company.

Countries are placed under high ecological pressure during economic expansion periods, especially in the construction sector. In order to tackle the effects of such expansion, it is necessary to clearly identify its principal sources of impact. In this respect, the present methodology is proposed, where two dwelling projects (one in Spain, where the methodology is initially implemented, and a second in Chile) are economically and environmentally assessed in the design stage. The procedure is based on the Ecological Footprint indicator and the project's bill of quantities, where the latter traditionally classifies project elements into three major categories: materials, manpower, and machinery. Each element has an associated footprint in terms of fossil fuel, cropland, pastures, forest and carbon absorption land, productive sea, and/or built land. The Chilean dwelling has an Ecological Footprint per m2 of floor area similar to that in Spain. The first is mainly built out of wooden materials, while the second is made of concrete and brick. The forest footprint of wooden materials is high compared to the fossil footprint of ceramic materials. The construction cost is significantly lower in Chile than in Spain, due to the cost of construction materials. In the case of the Chilean project, the footprint can be reduced from 0.17 to 0.07 hag/m2, largely due to the use of recycled wood. In Spain, a 25% reduction is achieved by using recycled concrete and steel, and by substituting ceramic vaults with cement vaults. The indicator is sensitive to different building typologies and construction materials, such as wooden, ceramic, and concrete products. The main obstacles in the assessment are related to the classification system of construction work.

We study the asymmetric responses of hedge fund return moments—especially higher moments as measured by return co-skewness and co-kurtosis—to macroeconomic and financial shocks depending on the phase of the business cycle. Similarly to previous papers on hedge fund systematic market risk (beta), we find that hedge funds seem to monitor their return co-skewness and co-kurtosis. The response of their return moments to VIX shocks—our indicator of macroeconomic and financial uncertainty—is particularly important, hedge funds reducing their beta and co-kurtosis and increasing their co-skewness following a (positive) VIX shock. Overall, the representative hedge fund tends to behave as an insurance seller in economic expansion and as an insurance buyer in recession or crisis. Finally, VIX shocks contribute to increase systemic risk in the hedge fund industry.

China has implemented the “Western Development Strategy” to support the socioeconomic development of its western region since 2000. The development progress, however, appears to come at the cost of air quality. Reversing this trend is imperative for both the public and the Chinese government, which has frequently emphasized its commitment to not repeat the “pollution first and then treatment” experience of developed countries. With official statistical information and data from peer-reviewed literature, this study estimates the fine particles (PM2.5), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxide (NOX) emissions of the economic sectors of Sichuan province, which is the largest economy in western China, and uses structural decomposition analysis to measure the contribution of different socioeconomic driving forces to the emissions change from 2002 to 2012. The results show that, the efficiency gains of PM2.5 and SO2 have prevailed over the emissions-increasing effect of economic expansion, while for NOX, the efficiency contribution still lags behind the impact of economic scale. The large-scale infrastructure investment and the rapid expansion of the real estate sector boosted Sichuan's economy but exacerbated regional air pollution. Overall, a more emissions-efficient, material-efficient and structurally-optimized production system is the overarching pollution reduction strategy. In addition, the GDP structure should be optimized to more adequately meet the changing consumption demands of the public instead of merely investing in profitable but emissions-heavy sectors such as construction.

People with disabilities face substantial barriers to sustained employment and stable, adequate income. We assess how they and their families fared during the long economic expansion that followed the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009, using data from the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) and the March CPS annual income supplement. We find that the expansion bolstered the well-being of people with disabilities and, in particular, their labor market engagement. We also find that federal disability benefits fell during the expansion. On balance, our results suggest that sustained economic growth can bolster the labor market engagement of people with disabilities and potentially reduce their reliance on disability benefits.

This paper revisits the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) irrelevance hypothesis from a multi-country perspective, investigating country-specific adjustment to external world shocks across a panel of 17 advanced economies from 1979 to 2019. To quantify world shocks, a broad set of real commodity prices are used to proxy global demand pressures. I then document a robust threshold in policy rates lying between 2.5% and 3.5%, below which global demand spillovers to domestic financial markets and economic activity rise substantially. These magnified spillovers near the ZLB persist after controlling for the post-2008 period, economic boom-bust cycles, secular time trends, and commodity exporters. Estimates from a threshold-augmented VAR further show that global demand shocks near the ZLB induce magnified financial and real adjustment along with rising real interest rates. Meanwhile, the economic expansion associated with a 1 percentage point drop in idiosyncratic long-term bond yield innovations offsets completely the average impact of global demand spillovers near the ZLB. This suggests that magnification near the ZLB is relevant, yet potentially countered by endogenous unconventional monetary policies targeting long-term yields over the same period.

This study employs the linear and nonlinear ARDL cointegration methodologies to examine the potential symmetric and asymmetric responses of suicide rates to unemployment rates in the US from 1928 to 2013. Our results suggest that suicide rates are pro-cyclical with respect to the business cycle (measured by changes in the unemployment rate) after extensively controlling for divorce and fertility rates. Unemployment has symmetric long-run effects on the age-adjusted suicide rate and four age-specific (from ages 25–34 to 55–64) suicide rates, while the effect of an economic expansion on suicide rates for those aged over 45 is greater than the effect of an economic recession. These findings imply that the effect of an economic expansion on the decrease of the suicide rate is higher than the effect of an economic recession on the increase of the suicide rate for individuals aged over 45. Therefore, intervention designed to reduce suicidal behaviors should emphasize periods of economic recession more than periods of economic expansion for those of middle age and beyond.

In last decade, the world economy has seen a twin glut in which a commodity glut depressed commodity prices and export values since 2014, while a liquidity glut boosted equity values and capital flows, creating a new reality in which net capital inflows for most countries and regions now surpass net trade inflows. The global Covid-19 pandemic is poised to further widen this divergence between global economic and financial paths. In this paper, we lay out what Nigeria could do to take advantage of such global liquidity and position itself favourably in a global post-pandemic environment in which most of the green shoots will be financial, as trade flows that were frozen by the pandemic will take a while to thaw. By taking the measures we suggest, Nigeria (and indeed Africa) could finally reduce its reliance on exports for the external liquidity inflows required for sustaining economic growth and stability and depend more on available global capital flows. The Nigerian economy had enjoyed good times fuelled by sustained improvements in global commodity prices in the first fifteen years after returning to democratic rule in 1999 but had also seen bad times since that jolly ride ended abruptly in the second half of 2014 when commodity prices started weakening: 1. Windfalls from commodity price surges from 1999 to 2014 fueled positive economic narrative: a. Economic Expansion- Nigeria’s economy climbed from 52nd to 22nd in the world. b. Financial Expansion- deposits, bonds, equity, forex and government revenue surged. c. Stability- a strong exchange rate, single-digit inflation and interest rates. d. Reduction in Misery- falling unemployment and poverty rates. 2. Shortfalls replaced windfalls since July 2014 and Nigeria’s economy has endured: a. Economic Contraction- recession, and sluggish recovery to now rank 30th in the world. b. Financial Contraction- as bank deposits, equity, forex, and government revenue shrank. c. Instability- Naira lost against US dollar, inflation and interest rates rose to double-digits. d. Growing Misery- more unemployed, poor, and disenchanted. 3. The common thread between the two eras is the quantum of external liquidity at Nigeria’s disposal. External liquidity windfalls fueled expansion and stability and external liquidity shortfalls inflicted contraction and instability, underscoring the fact that meeting an adequate external liquidity threshold is the primary catalyst of stability and growth. Nigeria had been in search of ways of stemming the economic decline before Covid-19 pandemic forced the country, like most other countries across the world, into a lockdown that brought the economy to a halt since March 2020 and would most probably end at some point in May 2020, with 2170 confirmed cases and 68 deaths as of 1st of May, when Nigeria must push policies that could brighten the post-pandemic outlook. Unfolding global realities now give Nigeria a chance to leverage its vast public assets to raise external liquidity thresholds enough to switch from contraction to expansion by adopting securitization privatization, liberalization, commercialization policies. The global liquidity glut has seen capital inflows to developing countries double in the last decade and Nigeria is well-placed to get a share of that. This piece points out that despite negative external income shock, Nigeria remains asset rich domestically. Nigeria’s history of oil booms combines favourably with her large population, over half of which are spread in hundreds of urban centres, to bequeath her with huge stocks of valuable public assets. While Nigeria’s economic, fiscal, and financial struggles resulting from the decline in income have been conspicuous in news headlines and policy discussions, the solutions that the value of assets owned by Nigeria could unleash have been less so. It is time to broaden the conversation to include the differences that the value buried in vast assets owned by Nigeria could bring to the narratives, evaluate the case for unlocking domestic and external liquidity from them, and explore ways of doing so. Doing these will change Nigeria’s economic, fiscal, and financial narratives by unlocking liquidity needed to strengthen Naira, rejuvenate fiscal, systemic, and foreign exchange streams, break dependence on volatile oil revenue and costly deficits, rebuild infrastructure, diversify, and accelerate growth, eradicate poverty and unemployment, and lay foundations for shared prosperity. In general terms, we must ensure that our policies are well-aligned with unfolding global realities by repositioning to get a good share of the post pandemic financial green shoots: we must push for large FDI/Remittances inflows as our main sources of external liquidity and deploy those into transport and energy infrastructure to boost stability, growth, and trade. More specifically, we must select the corporate assets we are willing to sell to equity investors to attract large Brownfield FDI inflows, the intangible assets we are willing to license to foreign investors to attract large Greenfield FDI inflows, the financial assets we can securitize to attract remittances, and the lands and built structures we can repurpose, redevelop, and commercialize for lease/sale. We should stop waiting passively to give investors incentives after they arrive, as such investors never arrive. We should learn that it is up to us to strategically offer equity and other investment opportunities as follows: a. Securitize Financial Assets- issue foreign currency bonds based on JV equity stakes b. Privatize Corporate Assets- sell up to 51 percent of all wholly owned SOEs c. Liberalize Intangible Assets- break government monopoly infrastructure sectors d. Commercialize Non-Financial Assets- optimize underutilized lands and buildings. We must also articulate clear enough visions of our future by coming up with credible external liquidity and infrastructure roadmaps that our diaspora and foreign investors can invest in, like India, Saudi Arabia, and lately Egypt do.

We evaluate the effects of structural tax reforms on government spending efficiency in a sample of OECD economies over the period 2007-2016. After calculating input spending efficiency scores, we assess the relevance for efficiency of narrative tax changes in a panel setup. We find that: i) input efficiency scores average around 0.6-07; ii) increases in the tax rates are reflected in falling public sector efficiency; iii) such negative effect is significant for PIT and VAT; iv) controlling for endogeneity, increases in tax rates are still associated with lower public sector efficiency, mainly in PIT; v) increasing tax bases for PIT and VAT improve public sector efficiency; vi) in economic expansion periods, increasing CIT base and reducing PIT rates, positively affect public sector efficiency; ix) in recessions, efficiency improves when PIT and VAT bases increase and CIT rate increases.

The U.S. economy shows a contrasting difference in cyclical properties between low- and high-income groups. Income shares of the bottom three income quintiles are procyclical; while those of the next 35 percent are countercyclical. However, the income share of the very top five percent income group is acyclical over the business cycle. This study attempts to explain the cyclical behavior of the income distribution over the business cycle, particularly focusing on the top five percent income earners' share, using a heterogeneous agent model featuring an extensive labor supply margin and a choice to become an entrepreneur. The model economy successfully reproduces the acyclical behavior of the income share of the top five percent income earners as well as the overall cyclicality of income shares of the income groups. In an economic expansion, relatively more people in the low income groups newly begin employment as workers, which raises the income shares of the bottom three quintiles and lowers the income shares of the top two quintiles, while at the top, relatively more people become entrepreneurs, which offsets the decline in the income share of the high-income earners from the workers' side

Over the last four decades, China has sustained extraordinary economic development despite Western assertions of under-constructed economic markets and the lack of an independent adjudicative process. The purpose of this paper is to set out the context of China’s judicial independence and high economic development scenario in the global economy. The paper aims to establish that vast economic expansion is possible without the conventional concept of an independent judiciary in which China provides an important example for the world. The study is mainly qualitative in nature and takes the analytical approach. The data and statistics have been collected from sources of the World Bank, IMF, WTO, UNCTAD, The World Factbook of the CIA, and the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics. The content analysis references the Chinese Constitution and judges law, reports of the Supreme People’s Court, books, journal articles, newspaper articles, media reports, and internet documents. The findings of the study are that China preserves “adjudicative independence” as a unique feature instead of embracing the Western concept of judicial independence that promotes the confidence of investors to make more investments. Additionally, the initiatives of “Made in China” and “One Belt, One Road” attach new wings to China’s emergence as the world’s crucial economic power. The article concludes that China’s experience provides a lesson for policymakers and economists of other developing or transitional countries struggling with weak legal and court systems, and emerging financial markets. The study strengthens the flourishing literature on the connection between judicial independence and economic development.

This paper uses a two-sector open economy model to examine the dynamic absorption of foreign aid in the presence of both formal and informal production. Calibrating the model to yield a long-run equilibrium consistent with sample averages for 72 aid-recipient developing countries for the period 1990-2017, we show that an increase in foreign aid impacts the sectoral composition of the recipient economy, driving resources into the informal sector, and away from the formal sector. Further, if aid is untied (say, provided for general budget support), then the expansion of the informal sector can lead to a contraction of the aggregate economy through the Dutch Disease effect. If the recipient government’s objective is to drive an economic expansion by increasing the share of formal production, then re-allocating existing aid to public investment is more effective than an increase in the aggregate level of aid.

China’s real estate has been a key engine of its sustained economic expansion. This paper argues, however, that even before the Covid-19 shock, a decades-long housing boom had given rise to severe price misalignments and regional supply-demand mismatches, making an adjustment both necessary and inevitable. We make use of newly available and updated data sources to analyze supply-demand conditions in the fast-moving Chinese economy. The imbalances are then compared to benchmarks from other economies. We conclude that the sector is quite vulnerable to a sustained aggregate growth shock, such as Covid-19 might pose. In our baseline calibration, using input-output tables and taking account of the very large footprint of housing construction and real-estate related sectors, the adjustment to a decline in housing activity can easily trim a cumulative 5-10 percent from the level of output (over a period of years). Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

This study examines the effect of lottery characteristics on analysts’ earnings forecasts. We find that analysts are more optimistic for lottery firms. The optimism of earnings forecast decreases with analysts’ general and firm-specific experience. Information uncertainty would enhance the effect of lottery characteristics on analysts’ earnings forecast bias. Market states and investor sentiment positively affect the effect of lottery characteristics on analyst optimism. Moreover, the level of optimism on lottery stocks increases during economic expansion. Our findings suggest that behavioral biases, rather than rational incentives, explain the optimism of analysts’ earnings forecasts for lottery stocks.

This paper analyses the interactions between financial regulation and crises with reference to the experience of the United States in the period after the global financial crisis up to the COVID-19 emergency. In the last few years, a new regulatory system for large banks has arisen in the U.S., reversing some elements of the Dodd-Frank Act and introducing deviations from the international rules. This approach is also confirmed by some of the measures adopted in response to Covid-19. If this trend were to spread to other jurisdictions, the globally harmonized approach to regulation could break down. In the current exceptional circumstances as well, the international standards must not be breached, as they provide the resilience needed to sustain lending to the economy, and to keep banks safe. With the memory of the global financial crisis fading and the long post-crisis economic expansion coming to an end, the pressures to dilute the G-20 rules could grow stronger. The importance of maintaining a consistent approach to banking regulation needs to be emphasized.

Incorporating socioeconomic and environmental considerations into energy decisions is necessary when tackling climate change and accelerating green growth. In this work, we propose a novel extension of the multi-factor energy input-output model to support evidence-informed energy policy-making and green growth planning through the introduction of eight different multipliers and two green growth indexes. We demonstrate the approach through application at the national scale in Canada. In particular, we quantitatively assess the extent to which changes in final demand impact the domestic and imported primary (and renewable) energy flows, CO2 emissions, economic expansion, and energy job earnings. The results point to a potential path of green growth in Canada, prioritizing activities that generate economic and job growth at minimal environmental pressure (i.e., fewer CO2 emissions). Economic activities that are critical for stimulating green growth in the short to medium run are identified, and recommendations are made regarding a longer structural change path for improving the supply chains of other economic activities. This work provides insights to decision-makers seeking strategies (e.g., policy reforms or targeted public expenditure strategies) to accelerate green growth planning on a national scale.

This paper studies the macroeconomic impact of a statutory minimum wage. I demonstrate by means of a medium-scale DSGE model, which I estimate with US data, how the minimum wage impacts aggregate variables. The model framework enables me to take into account various general-equilibrium effects that the minimum wage can potentially trigger. Under the estimated stance of monetary policy, the model predicts that the minimum wage has a negligible effect on the macroeconomy. However, if the Federal Reserve conducted highly dovish monetary policy, the federal minimum wage would substantially affect the macroeconomy. A minimum-wage hike would even cause an economic expansion. The paper also examines the possibility of indexing the minimum wage to an inflation measure. It compares the indexation to price inflation with the indexation to wage inflation. By considering an alternative estimated model, I present evidence that performance standards are an important adjustment channel through which firms react to changes in the minimum wage.

Although the recent economic expansion and redistributive fiscal policies implemented in Latin America since the turn of the century have raised the wellbeing of the population, the private monetary transfers from immigrants to their relatives back home are proving to be one of the most stable drivers of this change. This paper uses a new dataset for 18 Latin American countries covering the 2000–2013 period to examine the effectiveness of international remittances in reducing poverty and inequality. Dynamic panel data results using a number of measures for remittances indicate that increases in remittances have a negative and statistically significant impact on overall poverty and inequality in the region, even if it exacerbates moderate poverty. Such effect is robust to alternative remittances measures used to control for endogeneity concerns. In particular, remittances seem to have a stronger effect in countries receiving smaller amounts and in countries with a larger share of its population working abroad. Regional differences also affect the impact that remittances have on the wellbeing of the population, but financial development is found to have a limited impact on the effectiveness of remittances on poverty and inequality.

The triple components of energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, and economic expansion are important to achieving sustained economic activity and sound ecological advancement. This study aims to estimate the impact of wide-ranging parameters on environmental circumstances in South Asian countries. This analysis required two approaches: 1)quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL) as an econometric model, and 2) data envelopment analysis (DEA) non-parametric comparable composite index to examine concurrently South Asian nations' data for the 2000–2018 period. The underscored category of the parameters were grouped into four key indices, namely financial, fiscal, human, and energy. The DEA's mathematical composite findings reveal varied circumstances regarding environmental self-maintenance in South Asian nations. India and Pakistan are doing quite well; Afghanistan is abysmal. In addition, the QARDL approach findings reveal that energy use and fiscal indicators abate pollution. Furthermore, the correlation between fiscal decentralization and ecological attributes is strengthened by the excellent level of institutions and human capital progress. There is a unidirectional impact emanating from fiscal devolution, gross domestic product, human capital, eco-innovation, and institutional excellence on carbon dioxide pollution, although different from the other correlations obtained.

Corresponding to economic expansion of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), one of attractive businesses in this region is power generation as demand for electricity has grown continuously; however, not many studies focus on an assessment of business environment of power generation. Therefore, the study provides systematic and quantitative measure to compare the attractiveness of power generation markets in the ASEAN countries with respect to the expansion of market, the secure business environment, the economic and political uncertainty, the available infrastructure in delivering power, the financial supports and the human resources. To foster the attractiveness for power generation investment in the region, well-planned infrastructure development among ASEAN countries would help fulfill the gap these countries lack. ASEAN cooperation may come useful in addressing key concerns.

Jacks et al. (2011) offer an alternative to price gaps to quantify trade costs. Implementing a method which consists in deducing international trade costs from trade flows, they argue that the reduction in trade costs was the main driving force of trade growth during the first globalization (1870-1913), whereas economic expansion was the main driving force during the second globalization (1950-2000). We argue that this important result is driven by the use of an ad hoc aggregation method. What Jacks et al. (2011) capture is the difference in the relative starting trade of dyads experiencing faster trade growth in the first and second globalization. More generally, we cast doubts on the possibility to reach conclusions of such nature with a method that infers trade costs from trade flows, and then uses these costs to explain trade flows. We argue that it can only rephrase the information already contained in openness ratios.