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The article is devoted to defining the influence of monetary policy on the development of national production and substantiating the prospects for its monetary regulation. It has been established that in recent years the monetary policy of Ukraine has been unfavourable for the industrial development in Ukraine. The NBU, which adheres to the monetary regime of inflation targeting, pursues a relatively strict policy, in particular, maintaining the real key rate at a level above neutral and low growth rates of the real money supply. As a result, for many years the national industry has been operating in conditions of a chronic shortage of working capital and investments, which exacerbates the problems of its development. To establish the nature and strength of the influence of monetary factors on long-term economic growth in Ukraine, a new economic and mathematical model based on production functions has been developed. Its parameterization showed that national output directly depends on the increase in invested labour, and vice versa - on the increase in Hryvnia exchange rate to U.S. Dollar (discourages exports) and U.S. Dollar Index (worsens the foreign economic situation). The impact on the increase in the real money supply can also have a positive impact on the economy, but its strength depends on the growth rate of broad money (with controlled inflation). At moderate rates, typical for the basic scenario of long-term development of the Ukrainian economy, investments are not increasing as vigorously as it is necessary for accelerated growth of real GDP and incomes of citizens. An increase in the growth rate of the real money supply (up to about 15% per year), set forth in the accelerated development scenario, can provide better results. It is proved that despite the importance of monetary variables, the key factors influencing the links in the chain "real money supply - investment - industrial growth" should be sought outside the monetary sphere proper. Stable expansion of the monetary base and growth of the real money supply do matter, but they are not able to solve the fundamental problems of modernization of economic institutions, structural restructuring of the economy and overcoming technological gaps with industrialized countries. It follows from this that in Ukrainian economy in the long run it is important for the regulator to maintain stable growth of the real money supply and controlled inflation, but this will be of fundamental importance for solving the accumulated problems only if the policies of the regulator and the government are coordinated, which should create favourable conditions and form appropriate institutions to reduce the dependence of the economy on raw material exports, accelerate national technical and technological development and increase its overall level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industrialization, which is currently taking place in the world under new technological conditions, guarantees successful economic development. In this regard, analysts, entrepreneurs, government officials, politicians at the local and national levels are interested in timely and reliable information about the state and prospects for the development of the national industry. To get signals about changes in economic activity in the near future, economists use leading indicators -- dynamic data series that demonstrate a fairly stable connection with the basic data series of the macroeconomic development cycle in a particular country. However, in connection with the peculiarities of development, each state has to find its own solutions in this subject area. The article focuses on leading indicators of industry development. The objectives of the work are to generalize the accumulated experience in the field of short-term forecasting of industry based on the use of the dynamics of indicators that have a leading connection with industrial production, and to substantiate recommendations regarding the possibilities of their use for short-term forecasting of the industrial development of Ukraine. As a result of the generalization of the world experience of using leading indicators, considering the national industrial specifics, two working hypotheses were suggested in the research process. The first one is based on the fact that: when forecasting the turning points of economic activity in the national industry, it is necessary to focus on general and specific leading indicators of countries that are the main partners of Ukraine, especially those to which goods of the industrial group are exported; the list of candidate indicators should include world energy prices, taking into account the significant dependence of national production on hydrocarbon imports; in addition to the real money supply, the dynamics of industrial value added are influenced by other monetary factors, namely -- the hryvnia exchange rate to the dollar and the index of the US dollar, which is explained by the openness of the national economy, its small size, specialization in the export of raw materials and significant dependence on the import of industrial goods, necessary to create products with high value added. For further verification of this hypothesis, it is offered to divide the relevant indicators into four groups: those based on the results of enterprise surveys, indicators of financial activity of enterprises, monetary and socio-economic indicators. At the same time, the availability of data and promptness of updating (at least quarterly) is a key condition for their inclusion in the selection of candidates. The second working hypothesis is that the proposed indicators can serve as ones to provide early signals about the dynamics of the value added created in the industry. In order to verify it in practice, it is necessary to create a database of indicators that can be used to predict the dynamics of gross value added in industry, perform mathematical calculations (build quantitative dependencies of value added on selected indicators considering the time lag), integrate individual indicators into a composite index of industrial development. The subject of further research is solving these problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conditions for raising capital and the availability of capital to finance business are important for the economic development of the country. They are especially relevant for countries with low capital accumulation. The article considers how the institutional environment and macro financial imbalances affect the conditions and ways of attracting capital by business structures in Ukraine. To assess this impact, the ratio of the supply of current assets in the financial market (money supply M3) and the demand of the state for them (public debt), which during 2008-2019 decreased from 2.7 to 0.7. That is unprecedentedly low level and is the reason for the reduction of bank lending to businessses. To assess the level of depletion of the banking system, the BSER indicator (the share of bank assets that is immobilized to finance public debt) was calculated. The growth of the indicator from 5.6% in 2008 to 51.5% in 2020 indicates a progressive depletion of the banking system due to the reallocation of banks' assets to finance public debt. Analysis of the trend of fund raising by business in the stock market by placing shares showed that the number of issues and their volumes during 2015-2020 decreased significantly, and not less than 90% of the volume is carried out to recapitalize banks (including state) and state enterprises sector of the economy. The hypothesis that the identified unfavourable macro financial and institutional factors (crowding out effect, high currency risk, insecurity of property rights, raiding activity, length of court proceedings, etc.) led to the spread of non-transparent business financing practices in Ukraine and segmentation of Ukraine was confirmed. It is proved that the accumulation of a significant part of current assets in the shadow segment creates an artificial deficit of capital in the market and does not contribute to intersectoral mobility of capital, which inhibits the economic development of the country. To solve this problem, a strategy was proposed to restore the functional capacity of the country's financial system by gradually reducing the share of banking system resources invested in public debt to 10%. To deepen the analytical justification of the results obtained in further research, it is advisable to pay special attention to modelling and forecasting the impact of macro financial and institutional factors on the choice of instruments and channels of business financing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]