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This article addresses the problem of interrelations between economic factors and military conflicts, examining the role of econometric forecasting in the context of academic management during periods of uncertainty surrounding hostilities. It delves into the two principal theories of classical macroeconomics – neutrality and dichotomy – and explores their applicability to the complex interplay between economic forces and military dynamics. In doing so, it challenges the conventional binary view of conflicts as either war or peace, emphasizing the nuanced gradations that emerge over time. The study highlights the significance of economic advantages in shaping decisions related to military conflicts and underscores the role of econometric forecasting as a critical factor in academic institutions navigating the indirect repercussions of hostilities. The article also presents a comprehensive examination of strategic interactions, introducing distinctions between moves, rounds, and plays in conflict scenarios. Drawing on recent research and publications, the article underscores the importance of understanding the economic principles governing the preservation of peace and forecasting the consequences of such decisions. It references seminal work by economists P. Romer, R. Lucas, R. Barro, I. Salla y Martin, and R. Levine, who laid the foundation for the study of endogenous economic development. The theories of trade and military conflict are two distinct branches in economic analysis and prediction. Trade theory is founded on contractual agreements and mutual benefits, while the military conflict theory centers on competition for dominance. It's important to recognize that various analytical methods exist for modeling equilibrium in such situations, whether they involve active hostilities or the coexistence of armed forces during economic stagnation due to anticipated conflicts. It becomes evident that the decision to initiate or de-escalate a military conflict is primarily driven by economic advantages, even in the domain of academic management. In this context, econometric forecasting techniques play a role in the economic activities of academic institutions, which may experience direct or indirect consequences of hostilities. This is because various sectors must compete for their survival amidst these dynamics. Purpose. The study's objectives include assessing the impact of military budgeting productivity on economic growth using economic and mathematical modeling techniques, with a focus on countries facing uncertainties related to hostilities, evolving budget and tax regulations, and inflation. The article adapts the models of J. Battis and T. Koeli to facilitate this analysis. Methods Macroeconomic Analyses, Economentric Analyses, Trend Analyses Results. Determining the optimal level of taxation to obtain the necessary income for the budgets of academic institutions in conditions of uncertainty in the conduct of hostilities. In conclusion, the study challenges classical economic doctrines by establishing a strong connection between military budget allocation and the real sectors of the economy. It underscores that a nation's economic growth is contingent upon the productivity and effectiveness of its military budgeting, even in a globalized world economic system. This study opens the door to further research in this interdisciplinary field. Keywords: Econometric forecasting, Academic management, Uncertainty, Hostilities, Economic modeling, Endogenous economic development, Academic institutions, Budgeting, Military conflicts, Financial impact, Economic growth, Strategic decision-making, Budget optimization, Risk assessment, Financial efficiency. Methods Macroeconomic Analyses, Economentric Analyses, Trend Analyses fig .: ; tab .: ; bibl .: 9.

The purpose of the study is to improve the methodological support for the assessment of the financial efficiency of the agricultural sector of Ukraine under the influence of the innovative potential management of its resource provision. The main scientific methods used in the study are fundamental provisions of the theory of innovation and finance, correlation and multifactor regression analysis, mathematical programming, etc. According to the results of the conducted research the parameter of technological progress as an indicator of the level of innovation development of the agrarian sector of the Ukrainian economy was obtained after modelling of autoregressive multiplicative Tinbergen-Solow production function. The numerical value of the technological progress parameter indicates a potential for additional growth in agricultural output of +0.142%, while other conditions remain unchanged. 23 indicators of the state of the resource provision of the agricultural sector were systematized in 4 groups: the results of the production activity of the agricultural sector (6 indicators), the resource supply of the agricultural sector (8 indicators), the efficiency of the use of resources by agricultural enterprises (4 indicators), and sustainability of the financial condition of agricultural enterprises (5 indicators). A power-law four-factor regression model of the impact of the output volume of the agricultural sector, the value of current assets, return on capital and the current liquidity ratio on the volume of net profit of agricultural enterprises of Ukraine was obtained. It is proved that the elasticity of net profit for agricultural output is 0.01%, for the value of current assets - 1.46%, for capital accumulation - 0.72%, for current liquidity - 3.2%. We constructed the target functions of maximization of the agricultural production output on the basis of the Tinbergen-Solow production function, net profit on the basis of the four-factor power model of net profit, return on equity on the basis of the two-factor DuPont model for the short term. The solving of target functions allowed for maximization of the return on equity of agrarian enterprises of Ukraine only at the expense of the existing innovation potential of production resources and will be used in further research by the authors.

The article is aimed to prove that, in the current stages of economic development, agricultural enterprises need to carry out financial-economic diagnostics, which include the use of a certain sum of information of both internal and external nature concerning results and prospects of the enterprise’s financial and economic activities. Of particular importance is the timely and objective assessment of the financial-economic situation of enterprises with different forms of ownership, since no owner should neglect the potential possibilities for increasing the profits of enterprise, which can only be provided on the basis of timely and objective analysis. Carrying out the diagnostics of the financial health of enterprises facilitates the informational provision of all participants in the production process to develop plans and projections for financial recovery of enterprises.