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Introduction. In the periods from 2014 to 2019 and from 2019 to 2022, Ukraine implemented various economic and social policies that resulted in diverse socio-economic consequences. This article aims to conduct a comparative analysis of specific aspects of social and economic policy during these periods. Analysis of scientific research. Research on specific theoretical and practical aspects of state economic and social policy implementation in Ukraine during the periods from 2014 to 2019 and from 2019 to 2022 has been conducted by prominent scientists including S. V. Mocherny, Yu. S. Shemchushenko, O. P. Orlyuk, and others. The examination of the socio-economic consequences resulting from the implementation of economic and social policies in Ukraine during the periods from 2014 to 2019 and from 2019 to 2022 remains insufficiently explored, necessitating comprehensive scientific research in this field. The purpose of this scientific article is to investigate specific aspects of economic and social policy implemented in Ukraine during the periods from 2014 to 2019 and from 2019 to 2022. The main tasks of the article are to provide a theoretical and mathematical description of specific aspects of economic and social policy during the periods from 2014 to 2019 and from 2019 to 2022, as well as to analyze their consequences in Ukraine. Research methodology and methods. During the writing of the article, several special research methods were employed. These methods include direct observation, which involved gathering information on various indicators such as the number of points in the Corruption Perception Index (CPI) in Ukraine from 2013 to 2022, changes in real gross domestic product (GDP) from 2016 to 2020, the amount of state and state-guaranteed debt from January 2016 to January 2022, and Ukraine's position in the democracy rating from 2014 to 2022. Information processing methods were used to develop tables for calculating the growth and changes in the number of points in the CPI in Ukraine from 2013 to 2022, as well as the amount of state and state-guaranteed debt from January 2016 to January 2022. Graphical analysis was conducted to examine the dynamics of the CPI in Ukraine from 2013 to 2022, changes in GDP from 2016 to 2021, the size of the state and state-guaranteed debt from January 2016 to January 2022, and Ukraine's position in the democracy rating from 2014 to 2021. The time range for analyzing changes in GDP and the national debt was chosen by the author to minimize the impact of the acute phases of the conventional Russian-Ukrainian war during 2014-2015 and after February 24, 2022. Similarly, the time range for the CPI from 2013 to 2022 was selected to demonstrate that the conventional war does not have a decisive influence on the fight against corruption. Additionally, the time range for Ukraine's position in the Democracy Rating from 2014 to 2021 was chosen to mitigate the impact of the large-scale conventional Russian-Ukrainian war that began on February 24, 2022 Research results. According to the data from the Corruption Perception Index, it was found that effective measures were taken by the Ukrainian authorities to combat corruption during the period of 2014-2018. However, from 2019 to 2023, the progress in the fight against corruption slowed down. The analysis also demonstrates that following the cessation of active hostilities that took place between 2014 and 2015, the economic policies implemented by the state authorities facilitated consistent economic growth for sixteen quarters, spanning from 2016 to 2019. However, after a change in power occurred in 2019, economic growth shifted from positive to negative starting from 2020. During the period of 2016-2019, the government's economic policies not only focused on fostering economic growth but also aimed at reducing the external debt burden on the economy. Conversely, following the change in power in 2019, the new leadership pursued an active policy of foreign borrowing, resulting in an increase in the debt burden on the Ukrainian economy. Scientific novelty of the research results. A comparative mathematical analysis was conducted to examine specific aspects of state economic and social policies in Ukraine during the periods from 2014 to 2019 and from 2019 to 2022. Practical significance of the obtained research results. The author believes that conducting a qualitative comparative mathematical analysis of specific aspects of state economic and social policy in Ukraine during the periods from 2014 to 2019 and from 2019 to 2022 will facilitate the identification of more effective methods for implementing economic and social policies. This, in turn, will contribute to the establishment of an independent and efficient state [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of the article is illumination of the results of the carried out studies aimed at analyzing and quantifying the relationships between key monetary instruments and indicators of domestic debt in the context of determining the threshold levels of debt security of the State. An approach to modeling and forecasting the causal relationships between monetary instruments and the size of domestic public debt has been proposed. A model of discriminant analysis based on the autoregressive model of distributed lag is developed, a classification rule is proposed, which together allow to determine the threshold level of debt security, as well as to predict the effectiveness of monetary instruments on the amount of domestic public debt and debt security. The essence of the results obtained within the terms of the carried out study lies in the development of existing scientific and methodological instrumentarium for macroeconometric modeling and forecasting the amount of domestic debt and debt security analysis. Allocating the monetary policy indicators independently of other macroeconomic factors, using the adjusted Akaike criterion to determine the lag of variables allowed to develop and evaluate a set of models that can serve as guidelines to assess the impact of monetary policy on the amount of domestic public debt and debt security, which is a distinctive feature of the presented development compared to analogues. The causality of impact analysis was also carried out to identify the most effective monetary instruments, and the analysis of the application of the results of the developed model of discriminant analysis made it possible to identify periods where domestic debt indicators underwent the greatest changes and affected the level of debt security, without taking into account the amount of external debt. Further development of the chosen direction of research will expand the range of models aimed at assessing the effectiveness of debt security mechanisms, taking into account the dynamics of monetary and other macroeconomic indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current macroeconomic and political situation in Ukraine is characterized by instability and impact of a number of adverse factors. In such circumstances, Ukraine's debt relations are focused on the increased need to attract financing. At the same time, because of the ongoing war, Ukraine's expenses are constantly and rapidly growing. The revenue side of the budget under such conditions is limited. Today it is impossible to adhere to the chosen strategic benchmark – reducing the share of the external public debt and loans in foreign currency. The article is aimed at studying the practical aspects of attracting financing by Ukraine in the foreign market with an emphasis on the problems accompanying this process. The article examines the main indicators of attracting financial resources in the foreign market, the structure of Ukraine's debt in terms of currencies, as well as an overview of the risks that accompany the current debt situation. The primary task of Ukraine's debt policy is to optimize the attraction of financial resources in the foreign market within the security corridors. Taking into account the experience of attracting financial resources both in the domestic and foreign loan capital markets will allow defining the existing problems and identifying the directions for optimizing the attraction of such financing in the current crisis. Despite the significant need for financing and limited opportunities to attract resources in the domestic market, it is proposed to limit the use of external sources. In the current period, it is proposed to focus on restructuring the existing debt and finding opportunities to attract soft lending programs. Further, in the postwar period, a clear and flexible debt policy should be formed with the definition of quantitative benchmarks for Ukraine's debt security. However, prospects for solving Ukraine's debt problems will appear only after the settlement of the political situation in the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Balance on the public debt market is a guarantee of the stability of public finances. The state of public debt and the country's debt security depend on the efficiency of the public debt market of any country. When determining the key determinants of the debt market state, indicators that take into account the macroeconomic conditions of the borrowing country should be taken into account. Therefore, the article focuses on relative indicators. In addition, it is worth taking into account not only the indicators contained in domestic regulations, but also international recommendations. Usually, international standards characterizing debt security are quite high. Compliance with such indicators is primarily important for countries with emerging markets, to which Ukraine belongs. And for highly developed countries, the key is compliance with solvency, not indicators and norms related to the size of the debt and its components. The key determinants of the Ukraine's public debt market state in the pre-war period were the definition and assessment of the following indicators: the ratio of state and guaranteed state debt to gross domestic product, the share of debt in foreign currency, the share of guaranteed debt, the share of external debt, the ratio of gross external debt to GDP and the ratio of official international reserves to external debt, an indicator of the ratio of debt repayment expenditures in relation to general budget expenditures, as well as the ratio of debt service expenditures in budget expenditures. All the analyzed indicators illustrate a permanent excess of the permissible norms, which are substantiated by scientists and recommended by international financial institutions. The high debt burden on the budget and the economy as a whole, caused by the State debt accumulated over the years, is extremely negative. The high level of expenses for maintenance and debt payment makes it necessary to reduce the total expenses of the state, which affects social or other components, or forces to expand fiscal sources and increase fiscal pressure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article analyzes the structure of Ukraine's external debt liabilities for the period from 2011 to 2021 and in the period since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. It is determined that the amount of state external liabilities, taking into account projected data, may exceed 70% of this country's GDP, which will become the dominant form of both attracting financial resources to the state budget and threatening the state security. The authors provide an assessment of the difficulties of restructuring the external debt in terms of the specific weight of the creditor and the weight of short-term payments for the period 2022-2023. It is concluded that at the beginning of 2022, the largest specific weight in the structure of external liabilities was the debt for issued securities for foreign markets and liabilities to international financial organizations and the EU. The main payments for them fall on the third quarters of 2022 and 2023 (3.0 and 3.6 billion USD, respectively), and the payment of interest accounts for 30% of total. The article considers possible mechanisms of write-off and restructuring of the state's external debts, taking into account international experience and with regard to the crises and military conflicts. The following mechanisms for write-off and restructuring of foreign debt are analyzed: Brady Plan for debt restructuring of developing countries; and debt relief programs for the poorest countries - HIPC (heavily indebted poor countries) and MDRI (The Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative). The authors identify the guidelines of work on minimizing Ukraine's external liabilities in 2022-2023. A conclusion is made regarding the initiation of negotiations on the restructuring and write-off of the external debt burden to ease the payments on external debts, including GDP warrants. Such a task should be carried out as soon as possible before the period of the largest payments and taking into account the existing support of the governments of leading foreign countries18 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adopting a budget with a deficit in the modern world is not considered a negative phenomenon. However, it is imperative to identify sources of funding for such a deficit. In this regard, the use of market sources of financing the state budget deficit is the most optimal. The purpose of the article is to reveal the theoretical provisions and practice of financing the state budget deficit of Ukraine with the help of market sources. The article solves the following tasks: determining the place of financing the budget deficit in the process of equalization using different sources; characterization of existing sources of financing the budget deficit, and establishing criteria for classifying them as "market"; analysis of statistics on the preconditions for the state budget deficit in Ukraine; assessment of the use of market sources of financing the state budget deficit of Ukraine and the consequences of such financing. The existing sources of financing the state budget deficit are considered, among which: deficit financing emission, tax sources, budget sequestration, sale of budget assets, internal state loans, external state loans, free assistance. Market features identify the sources related to the use of debt financing instruments of the budget deficit, namely internal and external government loans. The advantages of using market sources of financing the state budget deficit are determined, namely: non-inflationary nature, efficiency of coverage, possibility to choose the most optimal offers on the market, wide opportunities for diversification, large base of risk reduction mechanisms, high liquidity. An assessment of the market sources use in terms of the state budget deficit financing in Ukraine allowed us to establish that external financing, which carries the greatest burden on the budget, accounts for the majority. In the structure of external financing, the largest share belongs to loans received by Ukraine from international financial institutions. Sold foreign government bonds also account for a large share of external debt. The domestic market for deficit financing is realized through the sale of domestic bonds. The increase in domestic and external debts poses a threat to Ukraine's debt security, which was analyzed using a number of indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of the government's debt policy on the development of Ukraine's economy is analyzed. It is determined that today almost all indicators of debt stability in Ukraine exceed the critical limit, beyond which the state loses the ability to solve debt problems on its own. Thus, during 2014–2021, the domestic public and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine increased in hryvnia equivalent by 3.9 times and as of the end of 2021 amounted to UAH 1,111.6 billion. The increase in debt was primarily due to direct public debt, which increased 4.1 times during the analyzed period. It is concluded that the scale of government borrowing in Ukraine makes it a threat to the economy, because without a change in the current government debt policy, the risk of the government's inability to meet its obligations to repay and service the debt will increase. Emphasis is placed on rethinking the country's economic policy in the direction of limiting the country's debt dependence, improving the structure of balance of payments and foreign trade balances, a balanced approach to the liberalization of relations in the foreign economic sphere and attracting foreign investment. A detailed analysis of trends in the issuance of domestic and external government bonds, as well as attracting debt financing from international financial organizations. The study of trends, and most importantly the structure of domestic government bonds, suggests that their growth is due to the need to finance not only the state budget deficit, but also the shortcomings and miscalculations of monetary and debt policy, as well as protectionist interests of individual businesses. Emphasis is placed on the fact that a significant share of non-residents' funds in domestic government bonds increases the country's exchange rate and financial vulnerability and is a factor that allows non-residents to influence the foreign exchange market and, accordingly, the national currency and international reserves of Ukraine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The article aims at studying the current state of Ukraine’s national debt and developing directions for its optimization. It is established that the currency component in the structure of Ukraine’s national debt is slightly lower than the threshold level for the currency component in the debt structure set by the IMF for developing countries. This structure of Ukraine’s national debt indicates the dependence of the domestic financial system on currency exchange rate fluctuations and the need to increase foreign exchange costs for servicing debt obligations. The amount of debt on loans from international financial organizations and government agencies of foreign countries comprises about a third of the total amount of national and guaranteed debt, indicating significant support Ukraine receives from its international partners, especially from the International Monetary Fund. The currency component in Ukraine’s national and state-guaranteed debt indicates high vulnerability of its financial system to currency shocks. It is established that the structure of Ukraine’s national and state-guaranteed debt by types of interest rates is quite optimistic and indicates a low vulnerability of public finances to interest rate risks. The size of Ukraine’s national and state-guaranteed debt in hryvnia equivalent increased during 2013–2020 by more than 4.4 times, and its growth in USD was quite moderate. It is determined that during 2020 the size of Ukraine’s national and state-guaranteed debt increased by 27.7% in hryvnia equivalent, due to the following situations: financing the state budget deficit; the allocation of funds to combat COVID-19; national currency devaluation, etc. The ratio of national and state-guaranteed debt to GDP, reaching a maximum of 81.0 % at the end of 2016, gradually decreased to 50.3% at the end of 2019, which corresponds to the norm established by the national legislation. However, the values of this index for the period under review exceed the threshold level of national debt set by international standards for countries with emerging markets (30-50 % of GDP). It is shown that the 2013 2019 period saw a tendency to increase the total cost of repayment and servicing of Ukraine’s national debt, which creates the risk of refinancing national debt, causes additional pressure on the state budget and GDP, and limits Ukraine’s ability to finance its social and economic goals of social development. The main risks for Ukraine’s debt obligations are highlighted, and ways to optimize them are outlined. The need to establish a National Debt Management Agency, the activity of which would help reduce both the debt burden and the cost of public debt servicing, is substantiated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the modern widespread approaches to the nature of external debt and its effects on economic processes, debt financing is among the distinctive features of the liberalization-oriented world of nowadays. Accordingly, unrestricted capital flows signify orientation at macroeconomic balance, since under the conditions when administrative barriers are absent capital distribution is even and symmetric, enabling leveling of factor prices. Associated with these arguments is a claim that prices of goods and services do not indicate nonnegligible fluctuations and a financial system gains economic agents' confidence. This research addresses the issues of the phenomenon of external debt and provides an insight into the U.S. external debt and its effects on both the U.S. and world economy. The findings show that the U.S. external debt is of no considerable threat to the world economy in the short-term, since the peace of the world's economic leader's growth exceeds that of debt servicing expenditures. However, an economic decline may turn the status-quo upside down, since the country may face inability to raise enough funds in time to discharge its financial liabilities, especially to non-residents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]