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Formulation of the problem. Soils are a significant source of greenhouse gases (GHGs), the release of which into the atmosphere forms the global warming potential. Mathematical models describing greenhouse gas emissions make it possible to assess the impact of climate change on the GHG emissions on a regional scale, and study how land-use changes affect these emissions. The study is aimed at assessment of potential changes in CO2 and N2O emissions from soils at agroecosystems under the influence of temperature regime changes and increasing aridity in the context of global climate change. Materials and methods. Numerical experiments with a comprehensive model of GHG emissions from the soils at the winter wheat agroecosystem were performed by means of RCP4.5 climate change scenario. The study is based on the materials of agrometeorological observations at the hydrometeorological station of Bilovodsk (Eastern Ukraine) for the period of 1991-2020 and the climate change scenario RCP4.5 for the period of 2021-2050. Results. Classification of crop vegetation conditions allowed us to reduce the diversity of their regimes to certain weather types, characterizing the common conditions of crop formation in spring and summer, due to which the so-called ‘dry’ and ‘humid’ years were distinguished. The tendencies of change in air temperature and rainfall during vegetation of winter wheat in years different on humidity have been established. The increase in air temperature from the beginning of the growing season was gradual, while maintaining a stable correlation: a ten-day average long-term temperature was more than a temperature of the ‘dry’ year which was more than a temperature of the ‘humid’ year. The intensity of greenhouse gas emissions is defined by the type of humidification in the growing season. In the ‘dry’ years at the beginning of the vegetation season, CO2 emissions will make up 0.044-0.079 tons of С-CO2 ha-¹ per a ten-day period, which is higher than the average long-term values and almost twice as high as in the ‘humid’ years. In the spring at the beginning of the growing season, as a rule, the level of moisture content in the arable soil layer is quite high, which leads to the formation of anaerobic conditions. They, in turn, determine the level of N2O emissions. Increasing aridity reduces the level of N2O fluxes. For ‘dry’ years, at the expense of a fairly high level of spring moisture of the arable layer at the beginning of the growing season, the level of N2O emissions was quite high (0.061-0.089 kg of N-N2O ha-1 per a ten-day period). Subsequently its level decreased significantly. In general, total greenhouse gas emissions in terms of CO2 equivalent will decrease by 6.2% in ‘dry’ years and by 32.3% in ‘humid’ years. Conclusions. Based on numerical experiments with the model of greenhouse gas emissions from soils at the winter wheat agroecosystem, the general patterns of vegetation-related variation of CO2 and N2O emissions are identified. The main patterns feature consists in increasing CO2 emissions during spring-summer vegetation of winter wheat from the beginning of a growing season to the wax ripeness phase and in decreasing N2O emissions from the beginning of the winter wheat growing season until its ending. Their peculiarities are defined by the years’ different humid conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Problem formulation. One of the main factors affecting climate change is the greenhouse effect conditioned by adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, among which CO2, CH4 and N2O are the most dangerous heat-trapping gases. In addition to anthropogenic activities, the source of greenhouse gases is emissions from natural ecosystems and agroecosystems. Carbon dioxide (CO2) accounts for the largest share of greenhouse gas emissions, nitrous oxide (N2O) also has large global warming potential, being nearly 300 times higher than CO2 on a weight basis. The purpose of the study is to create the integrated model of greenhouse gas emissions from soils in the agroecosystems on the basis of studies concerning modelling carbon dioxide emissions from mineral soils, quantitatively describing nitrous oxide emissions and modelling agroecosystem productivity. Methods. Mathematical modelling of environmental processes, the synthesis of quantitative approaches to their description. Results. The results of modelling greenhouse gas emissions from soils in agro-ecosystems during 2017- 2019 obtained by means of the integrated model developed showed that there is an interseasonal and interannual variability of CO2 and N2O fluxes. The higher CO2 flow rate was observed in 2017, in 2018 the lower CO2 emission intensity was discovered and in 2019 the CO2 flow rate was even lower. The emission of greenhouse gases varies depending on soil temperature, moisture and humus level of the soil. The equally low level of CO2 fluxes was observed at sufficiently low (from 1 to 6°C) soil temperatures. It was 0.072 - 0.401 g C-CO2/m² /day. The highest level of CO2 emission was observed in 2017 with a combination of high soil temperature (24-27°C) and sufficient soil moisture, and varies between 1,058 to 1,307 g С- CO2/m² /day. It was revealed that the most intense emission of N2O was observed during periods of high soil moisture when anaerobic conditions were established in the soil. The denitrification process was particularly intense in the spring of 2019, when the seasonal precipitation sum was 226 mm, and water-filled pore space (WFPS) reached more than 0.8 relative units. The average emission level of N2O was 15.592 g N-N2O/m² /day over this period, and the total N2O emission was the highest (1.134 kg of N-N2O/ha). The N2O emission intensity varied depending on the meteorological seasons. In the spring of 2017 and spring of 2018, the total N2O emission was 0.153-0.173 kg N-N2O/ha. The N2O emissions reached to 0.202- 0.503 kg N-N2O/ha in the summer season and 0.192-0.660 kg N-N2O/ha in the autumn. The highest emission levels were observed in the spring seasons (2018 and 2019) and in the autumn months (2017 and 2018), an increase in soil moisture worsened soil aeration, which led to an intensive denitrification process. In total, for the three meteorological seasons the highest emission was in 2019 (1.567 kg N- N2O/ha). The emission level was lower in 2018 (1.323 kg N-N2O/ha) and even lower in 2017 (0.569 kg N-N2O/ha). Conclusions. Based on the synthesis of approaches to modelling CO2, N2O emissions and agroecosystem productivity, an integrated model of greenhouse gas emissions from soils in agro-ecosystems has been developed (plant-agrosoil-GHG-model). The interseasonal and interannual variability of CO2 and N2O fluxes and their dependence on weather conditions and humus level of the soil have been obtained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]