Search

The article examines the essential features, deep causes and main forms of inflation as a multifactorial phenomenon that inevitably accompanies the economic development of almost all countries of the world. It is shown that the sources and consequences of inflation are not only of a monetary nature, but rather are deeply rooted in structural problems and affect directly and indirectly the totality of social relations. It is noted that the nature of inflation is rooted in the social conflict regarding the distribution of the social product between different social groups of the society. It is justified that inflation itself is complex and heterogeneous in its causes of origin, general features of the inflationary process, its mechanism of action, and consequences. It is argued that inflation is a monetary phenomenon, as it is caused by an excess of money in circulation. However, it should be noted that non-monetary factors can also be the cause of inflation. Regardless of the area in which inflation originates – monetary or non-monetary – monetary and non-monetary factors are interdependent, as they interact in a reproductive process. It is emphasized that one of the driving forces of the inflationary mechanism is the unevenness of price increases, as a result of which some economic subjects are interested in the existence of inflation. It is found that the nature of the national economy and the market has a significant impact on the inflationary process. The dominance of monopolistic structures of the economy, the majority of imperfect competition in the markets is a favorable environment in which inflationary tendencies are quite easily picked up and become strengthened. It is identified that inflationary processes of the national economy can also arise as a result of international exchange, through the price mechanism of foreign trade, when the increase in the price of imported resources creates an impulse for inflationary costs within the country.

Monetary support of the economy represents a necessary prerequisite for ensuring sustainable economic development, which is a priority strategic direction of public policy of any State. The purpose of the article is to identify the features and trends of monetary provision of the world economy in general and in terms of groups of countries, which will contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between economic development and the process of monetization of the economy. The concept of «monetization of the economy» is distinguished as a state and as a process. In the context of management, the monetization of the economy should be considered as a process that is a product of a reaction to the measures of public policies to manage the supply and demand for money, which is expressed in the remonetization and demonetization of the economy, while the state of monetization of the economy is proposed to be considered as a criterion for the adequacy of monetary provision to the economy. It is noted that a sufficient level of monetary provision of the economy has a positive impact on economic development, the dominant component of which is defined as economic growth. The analysis of the monetization of the world economy in the dynamics for 2000-2020 reveals a general trend towards monetary expansion of world economies. Based on data for 133 countries, the article identifies an increasing correlation between the level of monetization of the economy and economic development in the years of 2000, 2010 and 2020, which shows the importance of ensuring the processes of remonetization of economies for the economic development of the global economy. It is determined that the monetization of the world economy has a general upward trend, which intensifies after the passage of economic crises. The hypothesis that there is a link between the level of monetary support of the economy and economic development in other countries is justified. The existence of a positive relationship over the past 20 years, which has been strengthening over time, has been revealed. Several countries have a generally high level of monetization, but do not have tangible progress in economic development, which is primarily due to the non-monetary features of the development of these countries.

Monetary support of the economy represents a necessary prerequisite for ensuring sustainable economic development, which is a priority strategic direction of public policy of any State. The purpose of the article is to identify the features and trends of monetary provision of the world economy in general and in terms of groups of countries, which will contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between economic development and the process of monetization of the economy. The concept of «monetization of the economy» is distinguished as a state and as a process. In the context of management, the monetization of the economy should be considered as a process that is a product of a reaction to the measures of public policies to manage the supply and demand for money, which is expressed in the remonetization and demonetization of the economy, while the state of monetization of the economy is proposed to be considered as a criterion for the adequacy of monetary provision to the economy. It is noted that a sufficient level of monetary provision of the economy has a positive impact on economic development, the dominant component of which is defined as economic growth. The analysis of the monetization of the world economy in the dynamics for 2000- 2020 reveals a general trend towards monetary expansion of world economies. Based on data for 133 countries, the article identifies an increasing correlation between the level of monetization of the economy and economic development in the years of 2000, 2010 and 2020, which shows the importance of ensuring the processes of remonetization of economies for the economic development of the global economy. It is determined that the monetization of the world economy has a general upward trend, which intensifies after the passage of economic crises. The hypothesis that there is a link between the level of monetary support of the economy and economic development in other countries is justified. The existence of a positive relationship over the past 20 years, which has been strengthening over time, has been revealed. Several countries have a generally high level of monetization, but do not have tangible progress in economic development, which is primarily due to the non-monetary features of the development of these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article is devoted to defining the influence of monetary policy on the development of national production and substantiating the prospects for its monetary regulation. It has been established that in recent years the monetary policy of Ukraine has been unfavourable for the industrial development in Ukraine. The NBU, which adheres to the monetary regime of inflation targeting, pursues a relatively strict policy, in particular, maintaining the real key rate at a level above neutral and low growth rates of the real money supply. As a result, for many years the national industry has been operating in conditions of a chronic shortage of working capital and investments, which exacerbates the problems of its development. To establish the nature and strength of the influence of monetary factors on long-term economic growth in Ukraine, a new economic and mathematical model based on production functions has been developed. Its parameterization showed that national output directly depends on the increase in invested labour, and vice versa - on the increase in Hryvnia exchange rate to U.S. Dollar (discourages exports) and U.S. Dollar Index (worsens the foreign economic situation). The impact on the increase in the real money supply can also have a positive impact on the economy, but its strength depends on the growth rate of broad money (with controlled inflation). At moderate rates, typical for the basic scenario of long-term development of the Ukrainian economy, investments are not increasing as vigorously as it is necessary for accelerated growth of real GDP and incomes of citizens. An increase in the growth rate of the real money supply (up to about 15% per year), set forth in the accelerated development scenario, can provide better results. It is proved that despite the importance of monetary variables, the key factors influencing the links in the chain "real money supply - investment - industrial growth" should be sought outside the monetary sphere proper. Stable expansion of the monetary base and growth of the real money supply do matter, but they are not able to solve the fundamental problems of modernization of economic institutions, structural restructuring of the economy and overcoming technological gaps with industrialized countries. It follows from this that in Ukrainian economy in the long run it is important for the regulator to maintain stable growth of the real money supply and controlled inflation, but this will be of fundamental importance for solving the accumulated problems only if the policies of the regulator and the government are coordinated, which should create favourable conditions and form appropriate institutions to reduce the dependence of the economy on raw material exports, accelerate national technical and technological development and increase its overall level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article is devoted to topical issues of studying the operation of fiscal and monetary levers of economic development of the country, the peculiarities of their implementation in modern transformational conditions in relation to macroeconomic indicators. Monetary policy in combination with fiscal regulation instruments forms the basis of the country's stabilization policy. Monetary impulses, passing through a number of transmission channels, contribute to the achievement of the main general economic goals: sustainable economic growth, a moderate level of inflation and balance of payments. The study of existing and the search for new effective tools and forms of implementation of fiscal and monetary policy, changing the basic conditions of the functioning of the national economy of Ukraine becomes a challenge for improving the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary regulation. The main indicators for assessing the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary instruments of Ukraine are determined. The importance of monetary and fiscal instruments for macroeconomic stability is analysed, in particular by indicators: GDP, budget expenditures, tax revenues, discount rate and money supply. An economic and mathematical model for analysing the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary levers on the economic development of Ukraine is constructed. Ways to improve the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary levers of economic development in Ukraine are proposed based on the obtained main modelling results.

Industrialization, which is currently taking place in the world under new technological conditions, guarantees successful economic development. In this regard, analysts, entrepreneurs, government officials, politicians at the local and national levels are interested in timely and reliable information about the state and prospects for the development of the national industry. To get signals about changes in economic activity in the near future, economists use leading indicators -- dynamic data series that demonstrate a fairly stable connection with the basic data series of the macroeconomic development cycle in a particular country. However, in connection with the peculiarities of development, each state has to find its own solutions in this subject area. The article focuses on leading indicators of industry development. The objectives of the work are to generalize the accumulated experience in the field of short-term forecasting of industry based on the use of the dynamics of indicators that have a leading connection with industrial production, and to substantiate recommendations regarding the possibilities of their use for short-term forecasting of the industrial development of Ukraine. As a result of the generalization of the world experience of using leading indicators, considering the national industrial specifics, two working hypotheses were suggested in the research process. The first one is based on the fact that: when forecasting the turning points of economic activity in the national industry, it is necessary to focus on general and specific leading indicators of countries that are the main partners of Ukraine, especially those to which goods of the industrial group are exported; the list of candidate indicators should include world energy prices, taking into account the significant dependence of national production on hydrocarbon imports; in addition to the real money supply, the dynamics of industrial value added are influenced by other monetary factors, namely -- the hryvnia exchange rate to the dollar and the index of the US dollar, which is explained by the openness of the national economy, its small size, specialization in the export of raw materials and significant dependence on the import of industrial goods, necessary to create products with high value added. For further verification of this hypothesis, it is offered to divide the relevant indicators into four groups: those based on the results of enterprise surveys, indicators of financial activity of enterprises, monetary and socio-economic indicators. At the same time, the availability of data and promptness of updating (at least quarterly) is a key condition for their inclusion in the selection of candidates. The second working hypothesis is that the proposed indicators can serve as ones to provide early signals about the dynamics of the value added created in the industry. In order to verify it in practice, it is necessary to create a database of indicators that can be used to predict the dynamics of gross value added in industry, perform mathematical calculations (build quantitative dependencies of value added on selected indicators considering the time lag), integrate individual indicators into a composite index of industrial development. The subject of further research is solving these problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Financial Space is the property of Cherkasy Institute of Banking, University of Banking of the National Bank of Ukraine and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Scientific Proceedings of Ostroh Academy National University Series, Economics is the property of National University of Ostroh Academy and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The conditions for raising capital and the availability of capital to finance business are important for the economic development of the country. They are especially relevant for countries with low capital accumulation. The article considers how the institutional environment and macro financial imbalances affect the conditions and ways of attracting capital by business structures in Ukraine. To assess this impact, the ratio of the supply of current assets in the financial market (money supply M3) and the demand of the state for them (public debt), which during 2008-2019 decreased from 2.7 to 0.7. That is unprecedentedly low level and is the reason for the reduction of bank lending to businessses. To assess the level of depletion of the banking system, the BSER indicator (the share of bank assets that is immobilized to finance public debt) was calculated. The growth of the indicator from 5.6% in 2008 to 51.5% in 2020 indicates a progressive depletion of the banking system due to the reallocation of banks' assets to finance public debt. Analysis of the trend of fund raising by business in the stock market by placing shares showed that the number of issues and their volumes during 2015-2020 decreased significantly, and not less than 90% of the volume is carried out to recapitalize banks (including state) and state enterprises sector of the economy. The hypothesis that the identified unfavourable macro financial and institutional factors (crowding out effect, high currency risk, insecurity of property rights, raiding activity, length of court proceedings, etc.) led to the spread of non-transparent business financing practices in Ukraine and segmentation of Ukraine was confirmed. It is proved that the accumulation of a significant part of current assets in the shadow segment creates an artificial deficit of capital in the market and does not contribute to intersectoral mobility of capital, which inhibits the economic development of the country. To solve this problem, a strategy was proposed to restore the functional capacity of the country's financial system by gradually reducing the share of banking system resources invested in public debt to 10%. To deepen the analytical justification of the results obtained in further research, it is advisable to pay special attention to modelling and forecasting the impact of macro financial and institutional factors on the choice of instruments and channels of business financing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The instability of the domestic economy and the influence of external factors lead to the deviation of the basic macroeconomic indicators from the normative equilibrium values. This requires the development of a qualitatively new integrated approach to the analysis of the main macroeconomic indicators of the development of the economy sectors in order to identify the effective institutional and financial foundations for stimulating economic progress of our state. The purpose of the work is to study the theoretical positions of the financial and real sectors of the economy and conduct an econometric analysis of the indicators of their development. Results. Theoretical positions about the place of the real and financial sectors of the economy in the general economic system of the state has been systematized in the article. The main indicators (KPIs — key performance indicators) of the studied sectors of the economy has been revealed. The econometric analysis of the main indicators of the development of the economy sectors has been based on real (actual) values corrected for inflation and has been presented in the classical theoretical Hix-Hansen equilibrium model on commodity and money markets (IS-LM). The data of the National Bank of Ukraine on the dynamics of the monetary base (B) and monetary aggregates (M0 — M3), and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine on GDP (Y) and inflation (СРІ) has been used in the research. The econometric analysis has showed a significant correlation between the nominal and real GDP, money supply and money base indicators, which are almost synchronized during 2001—2017. The presence of strong interdependence between the real values of these indicators has been confirmed by very high correlation values, which are ranged from 0.94 to 0.99. Almost functional dependence of the money supply on the monetary base has been explained by the availability of the existing mechanism of monetary multiplication, and the money market multiplier tends to increase. The high statistical dependence between the real NBU discount rate and the weighted average rate on all instruments has been revealed. It proved the effectiveness of the main instrument for implementing the discrete monetary policy of macroeconomic regulation. The negative significance of the correlation coefficients between the interest rates and the quantitative indicators of the real and financial sectors of the economy has shown that the traditional theoretical compromise in choosing the main problems to be solved in the economy to ensure macroeconomic stability is also typical for Ukraine. The application of the «expensive money» policy to combat high inflation negatively affects the real money supply, but taking into account the very high dependence between it and GDP, slows down the growth of the real sector of the economy, and vice versa. The obtained two-factor regression equation with very high reliability has explained by the retrospective changes in the real money supply. The most important factor for it is real GDP. This confirms the strong interconnection between the real and financial sectors of the economy in the process of developing the economic system. Quantitative indicators of development of both sectors are under the influence of long-term trends. They have their own nature and often depend on trends in the development of the world economy and finance as well as internal problems that are often predictable. Conclusions. The results has been obtained suggest that the synchronous long-term dynamics of real GDP, money supply and money base, as well as the statistical interdependence between them, firstly, signal that in Ukraine the rules of a market economy have already been formed and can be applied effectively in such conditions of the methods and tools of macroeconomic regulation, and secondly, processes occurring in one of the specified sectors of the economy will necessarily reflect on another. Therefore, solving macroeconomic problems requires a balanced and integrated approach taking into account the nature and strength of the interdependence between different processes and phenomena.

Cyclical fluctuations in the market economy have been the focus of attention of researchers for many years. Today, the process of reproduction is becoming cyclical, which is a problem of interest of all economic agents. The purpose of the article is to reveal the main causes of economic cycles, their nature and to show the effect of cyclical fluctuations on the production process and employment, as well as in the development of a new socio-economic society as a whole. The article shows the essence of each stage, their disadvantages and advantages, influence on the formation of a creatively developed person.

The paper is devoted to scientific-theoretical and econometric analysis of dollarization on the example of Central and Eastern European countries. The views of scientists on the essence of the investigated category are generalized; the presence of high degree pluralism, particularly among Ukrainian researchers is determined. The authors’ definition, according to which the necessary conditions for dollarization in the economy such as: the recognition by residents the ability of foreign currency to perform one or more national money’s functions and systematic use of such currency in cash and/or non-cash circulation is given. Three-dimensional classification of dollarization, consistent with the modern money theory, according to the criteria of penalty, state recognition and performance of specific money’s functions is presented. Genesis and manifestations of inferred types are investigated. The global level of commitment to the U.S. dollar as the most common settlement and reserve currency is defined according to the global statistics of cross-border payments and the currency composition of the official central banks’ reserves. Methodological approaches for determining the level of dollarization of the economy, the most common of which – dollarization of money supply according to IMF and external debt–to–GDP ratio illustrated by statistics of 9 Central and Eastern European countries with own currencies are analyzed. It is determined that the high level of dollarization indicates the substitutionary competition between national and foreign money, where the latter are considered as a key factor for entering the global financial and commodity markets. According to the results of construction, estimation and re-estimation of BVAR dollarization model of Ukraine, Belarus, Poland and Russia, the significant causal relationship between the share of the currency component in the money supply of Russia and Poland and the corresponding indicators of Belarus and Ukraine is proved. This substantiates the previous conclusions about the unity of the dollarization evolutionary logic in historically close economies. The need for further empirical research of provoking and restraining factors of dollarization in Central and Eastern European countries is emphasized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Refinancing of commercial banks is one of the instruments of monetary policy and is based on the functions of the central bank as a "lender of last resort". Its essence at the micro level is to maintain the liquidity of banks, and at the macro level - to expand the money supply in the country's economy. In most cases, refinancing is secured by domestic government bonds. As generally known, this type of securities is considered to be the most highly liquid collateral. This guarantees to the Central Bank in the repayment of refinanced funds, in particular in the case of classifying the borrowing bank as insolvent. This is especially relevant given the recent crisis in Ukraine and leading to the loss of banking institutions. During 2014-2018, the National Bank of Ukraine initiated the filing of 115 lawsuits to repay insolvent banks' debts under refinancing agreements. The total amount of claims is UAH 37 billion. Almost half of the cases have already been approved and are being enforced. However, some legal contraventions regarding the procedure for the sale of mortgaged property under refinancing agreements (in the case of classifying the bank as insolvent), significantly complicate the process, lead to re (under new circumstances) consideration of cases and delay the repayment of previously provided funds. This, therefore, has a negative impact on the state and size of gold and foreign exchange reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine. The analysis of various aspects of the implementation of the monetary policy of the state, including the features of refinancing of commercial banks, has become the object of attention of many both domestic and foreign scientists. However, today there are still some problems, regarding the priority of application of the norms of various legislative acts in the procedural issues of repayment of such funds in case of classifying the borrowing bank as insolvent. This highlights the need for further scientific research in the appropriate direction. The methodological basis of the study were modern methods of cognition: formallogical, analytical-synthetic, logical-legal and others. The formal-logical method was used to analyse court practice, as well as regulations governing relations related to refinancing banks and the insolvent bank's fulfilment of its obligations to creditors. Logical-legal method revealed inconsistencies in the current legislation of Ukraine the field study and justify suggestions for their elimination. In the analysis the authors concluded that the courts in disputes over the fulfilment of their obligations to creditors by an insolvent bank, which introduced a temporary administration and / or liquidation procedures implemented, should take into account the priority of the Law of Ukraine "On the Individual Deposit Guarantee System" in relation to other legislative acts of Ukraine in such legal relations. During the analysis, the authors came to the conclusion that courts in disputes over the performance of an insolvent bank, which introduced a temporary administration and/or liquidation procedure, its obligations to creditors, should take into account the priority of the Law of Ukraine "On Deposit Guarantee System" concerning other legislative acts of Ukraine in such legal relations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Scientific Proceedings of Ostroh Academy National University Series, Economics is the property of National University of Ostroh Academy and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper presents a new explanation of neutrality of money in general case, regardless of the duration. It is based on the CMI-model of macroeconomic dynamics, which proposes the fundamental relationship between the efficiency of the use of production resources, money supply, inflation, and dynamics of the economic growth. This relationship is proved empirically by its testing on the examples of two completely different economies (the U.S. and Ukrainian ones). The testing period covers several consecutive real business cycles for each of these economies. According to this relationship, the value of money supply affects GDP growth rate in every period of time. Thus, monetary aggregate M2 is divided in two parts: one part is always non-neutral and the other is always neutral, both in the short run and in the long run.

Copyright of Economy & Forecasting / Ekonomìka ì Prognozuvannâ is the property of Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences, Institute for Economic Forecasting and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article presents approaches, which explain the transition process of the financial systems’ re–monetization, and on this basis ─ reasonable priority areas of the central bank monetary policy in Ukraine. Relevant depending modeled by using a dynamic model with rational expectations, where equation (1) describes factors that affect the price level; in equation (2) monetization dynamic is proportional to the change in the absolute value of this indicator. However, monetization is inversely proportional to the price level and inflation. Similarly, it is assumed that higher inflation limits the monetization dynamic. Likewise they are affecting currency devaluation and budget deficits. Among exogenous factors of monetization important are: efficiency of the banking system; completion of the market environment’s formation; improve conditions for foreign investment. The equation (3) presents functional dependence for the current account balance, which is improved by lowering prices, currency devaluation and improving the budget balance. As the results of the study following conclusions were made, namely—the re–monetization tempo of the Ukrainian economy is strong even among successful Eastern European economies; a significant increase monetization may lead to crisis.

Copyright of Financial & Credit Activity: Problems of Theory & Practice is the property of University of Banking of the National Bank of Ukraine and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Economy & Forecasting / Ekonomìka ì Prognozuvannâ is the property of Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences, Institute for Economic Forecasting and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article considers actual issues of economy dollarization classification, its nature, advantages, disadvantages, and consequences for specific economic conditions. It also reveals the possible determination methods of economy dollarization level in addition to the possible ways of economy de–dollarization. The economy dollarization evaluation method is based on studies of the structure of monetary aggregates. We also performed the SWOT–analysis of the Ukraine’s economy dollarization level and the results disclose its basic causes, as well as the opportunities and threats for the economy of Ukraine. Also, we show the possible ways to improve the monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine.

Increasing competitiveness of the national economy is one of the most challenging problems of today. The authors review directions of monetary policy and define what impact this policy makes on the competitiveness of economy based on research of links between monetary and macroeconomic variables. It was concluded that the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) used interest rate as an instrument of monetary variables correction rather than as the instrument to increase competitiveness. It is proved that for quite a long time there has been condition of partial disequilibrium of money market in Ukrainian economy. This condition reflects in too high risks, which, in turn, maintain high level of interest rates leading to relative money deficit in real sector of economy and relative surplus in the banking sector. Such disequilibrium partially distorts incentive effect of monetary policy. In order to stimulate competitiveness, it is necessary to decrease interest rates, activate interest rate channel of monetary transmission mechanism, improve the structure of emission mechanism and reduce dollarization. In order to solve the above mentioned problems, it is required to activate market mechanisms and use other regulatory mechanisms of money circulation. On this basis, we outline the ways to improve NBU monetary policy to increase competitiveness of Ukraine's economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Scientific Journal of Chernihiv State Institute of Economics & Management. Series 1, Economics is the property of Chernihiv State Institute of Economics & Management and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)