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The dynamics of changes in the consumer price index in Ukraine and the dynamics of devaluation of hryvnia against the US dollar are analyzed in the article. On the basis of the Pearson correlation coefficient, the closeness and form of the connection between devaluation and inflation is determined, the calculation is based on the formation of a statistical sample exclusively of the periods of devaluation of the national monetary unit and the existence of inflationary processes. The elasticity of inflcation depending on the devaluation in the long term (Exchange Rate Pass Through was determined) on the basis of the regression model is calculated. The dependence of the Exchange Rate Pass Through in the negative shift of the exchange rate of hryvnia against the US dollar to the consumer price index depending on the economic activity in the country was established. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article formulates the assumptions for the baseline scenario for the development of Ukrainian industry as to the dynamics of the world economy, world food and commodity price indices, the population size of Ukraine, the exchange rate of hryvnia against the dollar and the euro, the dynamics of wages in Ukraine and the EU, the propensity to invest in the Ukrainian economy, the value of the world GDP deflator. The initial data for the base scenario for the development of Ukrainian industry in 2020-2035 have been determined. The baseline scenario is conservative and reflects the continuing trends in the national industry that were observed until 2019. The main results of modeling the baseline scenario for the development of the national industry for 2020-2035 by sectors have been presented. The growth rates of value added by sectors, as well as the growth rates of GDP from 2010 to 2035 have been calculated. Changes in the share of sectors of the economy of Ukraine for 2011-2020 (fact) and from 2021 to 2035 (basic scenario) have been presented. It should be noted that the development of the scenarios was based on the continuation of the trends of 2010-2019 without taking into account unpredictable factors (such as the coronavirus pandemic or military combat), so the main goal is to assess general economic trends and factors rather than accurately predict certain indicators in specific conditions. The dynamics of relative indicators that indicate the structural features of the process of value added creation was calculated and analyzed, including capital-labor ratio, capital productivity, efficiency of labor costs and labor productivity for each sector. It has been established that in the baseline scenario, the economy of Ukraine will experience steady growth in the main sectors: mining, by an average of 1% per year; agriculture by 2-2,5% per year, while the largest growth will be observed in the processing industry, above 4% per year. This is generally in line with the trends in the global economy: growth is mainly concentrated in processing industries rather than industries that extract natural resources. The annual GDP growth, according to the simulation results, will be in the range of 3-5%, which approximately corresponds to the forecasts of various world institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article is devoted to the issues assessing the state household bank savings during the crisis states of the Ukrainian economy, which were observed in 2008-2009, 2014-2016, and 2020-2022 and were caused by various reasons. Based on the analysis the structure bank savings, their types, dynamics and trends, it was concluded that the savings behavior of households had multidirectional vectors. In particular, during the crisis states the economy in 2009, 2014-2016, 2020-2021, household savings in the national currency had a downward trend, while in foreign currency – an increasing trend. The overflow of savings from national currency to foreign currency proves the existence high devaluation expectations during the crises observed in Ukraine. The assessment the structure household savings during the analyzed period showed that the lion's share of deposits in their total volume belongs to short-term deposits “on demand”, which in the current year has a growing tendency. Such a trend is threatening and carries potential risks for the stability the exchange rate dynamics of the hryvnia and the reduction of inflation rates in Ukraine. Low interest rates on longer-term household deposits and low trust in banks during economic crises are among the main reasons for this trend. It was determined that certain factors affect the saving behavior and motivation of households during economic crises, including the presence of asymmetric information, which does not make it possible to make an informed decision; insufficient level of financial literacy; the advantage of investing in foreign currency; accumulation of funds outside the banking system in various assets. It is emphasized that household savings have active and passive forms. Active savings are an investment potential for their owners and the state as a whole. Passive savings in conditions of economic growth are a factor inhibition of macroeconomic development and a lost opportunity for the country. Restoration of economic growth requires large amounts investment, the source which in any country is domestic savings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The large-scale war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, causing colossal damage to Ukrainian society and economy, led to a significant increase in state spending, primarily on defense, which required the maximum mobilization of external and internal sources of financing the budget deficit. The national currency was subjected to strong inflationary and devaluation pressure, which required an immediate response from the National Bank of Ukraine (hereinafter referred to as the NBU). The general background for the abovementioned dramatic events was the "post-Covid" acceleration of inflation rates in the world and the resulting increase in interest rates by the leading central banks. The article analyzes the key decisions of the NBU in the field of monetary policy during the war from the point of view of their compliance with the challenges of wartime and in the context of the main trends of monetary regulation in the world. It was concluded that the NBU managed to ensure macro-financial stability, but its monetary policy did not fully take into account the needs of the state in financing military expenditures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the peculiarities of the functioning of the currency market of Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. The exchange rate dynamics in the pre-war period are shown and the factors of its formation in 2022-2023 are determined. It is noted that a significant inflow of capital into the country in the form of foreign aid from allied countries makes it possible to compensate for the foreign currency deficit. The NBU's measures to maintain exchange rate stability and their consequences for the monetary sphere in general and the foreign exchange market, in particular, are analyzed. Based on the study of risks and threats to the stability of the foreign exchange market, appropriate measures of the NBU to neutralize them in the conditions of martial law have been determined. The expediency of fixing the exchange rate at the current stage and the conditions for restoring the regime of flexible exchange rate formation are substantiated. It is established that during the period of martial law, financial markets remained stable due to the significant inflow of non-market capital into the country, the application of a fixed exchange rate and currency restrictions. Such positive consequences of maintaining a fixed exchange rate of the hryvnia as curbing the volatility of the foreign exchange market, reducing the cost of risk insurance, reducing the vulnerability of the economy to changes in capital flows, and stabilizing Ukraine's debt position have been identified. The directions for improving the regulation of the foreign exchange market in the short and long term are outlined. The NBU's strategic direction regarding the regulation of the foreign exchange sphere is the movement towards the gradual weakening of currency control and the removal of currency restrictions introduced at the beginning of the war, the transition to flexible exchange rate formation and the return to the monetary policy of inflation targeting. The restoration of production and the adjustment of transport logistics (opening of ports and/or setting up of alternative transportation routes), the revival of exports and the growth of foreign exchange earnings from other sources will ensure an increase in the supply of foreign currency on the market. After the cessation of hostilities, the NBU should conduct an exchange rate policy taking into account the tasks of post-war reconstruction, balancing between the stimulation of imports and the attraction of foreign investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industrialization, which is currently taking place in the world under new technological conditions, guarantees successful economic development. In this regard, analysts, entrepreneurs, government officials, politicians at the local and national levels are interested in timely and reliable information about the state and prospects for the development of the national industry. To get signals about changes in economic activity in the near future, economists use leading indicators -- dynamic data series that demonstrate a fairly stable connection with the basic data series of the macroeconomic development cycle in a particular country. However, in connection with the peculiarities of development, each state has to find its own solutions in this subject area. The article focuses on leading indicators of industry development. The objectives of the work are to generalize the accumulated experience in the field of short-term forecasting of industry based on the use of the dynamics of indicators that have a leading connection with industrial production, and to substantiate recommendations regarding the possibilities of their use for short-term forecasting of the industrial development of Ukraine. As a result of the generalization of the world experience of using leading indicators, considering the national industrial specifics, two working hypotheses were suggested in the research process. The first one is based on the fact that: when forecasting the turning points of economic activity in the national industry, it is necessary to focus on general and specific leading indicators of countries that are the main partners of Ukraine, especially those to which goods of the industrial group are exported; the list of candidate indicators should include world energy prices, taking into account the significant dependence of national production on hydrocarbon imports; in addition to the real money supply, the dynamics of industrial value added are influenced by other monetary factors, namely -- the hryvnia exchange rate to the dollar and the index of the US dollar, which is explained by the openness of the national economy, its small size, specialization in the export of raw materials and significant dependence on the import of industrial goods, necessary to create products with high value added. For further verification of this hypothesis, it is offered to divide the relevant indicators into four groups: those based on the results of enterprise surveys, indicators of financial activity of enterprises, monetary and socio-economic indicators. At the same time, the availability of data and promptness of updating (at least quarterly) is a key condition for their inclusion in the selection of candidates. The second working hypothesis is that the proposed indicators can serve as ones to provide early signals about the dynamics of the value added created in the industry. In order to verify it in practice, it is necessary to create a database of indicators that can be used to predict the dynamics of gross value added in industry, perform mathematical calculations (build quantitative dependencies of value added on selected indicators considering the time lag), integrate individual indicators into a composite index of industrial development. The subject of further research is solving these problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of the government's debt policy on the development of Ukraine's economy is analyzed. It is determined that today almost all indicators of debt stability in Ukraine exceed the critical limit, beyond which the state loses the ability to solve debt problems on its own. Thus, during 2014–2021, the domestic public and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine increased in hryvnia equivalent by 3.9 times and as of the end of 2021 amounted to UAH 1,111.6 billion. The increase in debt was primarily due to direct public debt, which increased 4.1 times during the analyzed period. It is concluded that the scale of government borrowing in Ukraine makes it a threat to the economy, because without a change in the current government debt policy, the risk of the government's inability to meet its obligations to repay and service the debt will increase. Emphasis is placed on rethinking the country's economic policy in the direction of limiting the country's debt dependence, improving the structure of balance of payments and foreign trade balances, a balanced approach to the liberalization of relations in the foreign economic sphere and attracting foreign investment. A detailed analysis of trends in the issuance of domestic and external government bonds, as well as attracting debt financing from international financial organizations. The study of trends, and most importantly the structure of domestic government bonds, suggests that their growth is due to the need to finance not only the state budget deficit, but also the shortcomings and miscalculations of monetary and debt policy, as well as protectionist interests of individual businesses. Emphasis is placed on the fact that a significant share of non-residents' funds in domestic government bonds increases the country's exchange rate and financial vulnerability and is a factor that allows non-residents to influence the foreign exchange market and, accordingly, the national currency and international reserves of Ukraine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article substantiates the expediency of modeling the development of national industry taking into account how the main interconnected key sectors of Ukrainian economy (not only processing and extractive industries, but also agriculture) are developing, as well as taking into account the factors that cause changes in this development over time. Based on previous researches, multiplicative production function has been chosen as the base for building the model, which was modified by taking into account the peculiarities of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the specifics of individual industries in Ukraine. The economic-mathematical model of long-term development of specified branches of economy of Ukraine in the conditions of digitalization was proposed, in which the value added in the branch is the dependent variable, and the classic components of production functions (labor and the capital) are the independent variables, as well as the new factor - digitalization, and factors, specific to individual industries (world food price index for agriculture and world raw material price index for the extractive industry). A specific feature of the model is also the use of correction factors that reflect the change in the return of factors over time and increase the accuracy of calculations. In addition, separate models have been developed to calculate each of the main factors, based on the dynamics of investments, taking into account the recursive influence of value added, propensity to invest, the condition of the world economy and other specific factors. The calculation of value added in agriculture, extractive and processing industries of Ukraine in 2010-2019 was performed using the model. The adequacy of the model was validated based on the results of its parameterization, which showed sufficient accuracy for the implementation on practice, as the average absolute error of approximation ranges from 2.94% to 4.14% depending on the industry, with abnormal 2014-2015 excluded from the calculations. The value of GDP in the country as a whole was calculated on the basis of the results of value added calculations by key industries. Taking into account the fact that the proposed set of models does not include all industries, a regression model was used to calculate GDP, to which value added for the identified key industries was used as factor. It is established that the proposed model is quite accurate and can be used to calculate the GDP of Ukraine on the basis of value added calculations in agriculture, extractive and processing industries. Given the prospects of practical use of the model for management decisions, the elasticity of the main driving factor (investments) of the development of individual industries was assessed for the main variables, which, in particular, showed that the exchange rate of hryvnia to the US dollar has a negative impact on investments, and the most pronounced - on investments in fixed assets of the processing industry. This questions the widespread idea that the devaluation of the hryvnia stimulates domestic production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pandemic COVID-2019 has been an unexpected challenge for the economies of many countries. In order to avoid the rapid spread of the disease, the governments of most countries imposed quarantine, forcibly closed borders, imposed restrictions on the movement of the population, and so on. Obviously, this provoked instability in financial markets, sharp fluctuations in national exchange rates and worsened the economic expectations of the population. In the scientific article, the authors conducted a study of the deposit policy of Ukrainian banks in this economic instability, which was provoked by the COVID-2019 pandemic. Based on statistical data, the structure of deposits of legal entities and individuals, the dynamics of interest rates, the regional distribution of deposits, as well as identified the leading banks to raise funds. The authors obtained unexpected conclusions about the lack of significant impact of the pandemic on the deposit market. Despite all the negative forecasts, there was no significant outflow of deposits in Ukraine, rather the opposite — banks were able to increase the amount of funds raised from individuals and legal entities. However, the negative expectations of the population affected the structure of deposit resources, in particular, in the analyzed period the share of demand deposits and short-term deposits increased significantly. Based on the analysis of experts’ opinions, as well as the forecast of the main economic indicators that have an impact on the deposit market, three scenarios for further development of Ukraine’s economy and the banking sector were developed and substantiated — optimistic, critical and realistic. According to the authors, the most reasonable in these conditions may be a realistic scenario that will provide positive dynamics in the growth of basic economic indicators, which will affect the growth of deposit resources in banks, while taking into account potential non-economic risks that could destabilize the situation. The findings can be applied in developing strategies for the development of individual banks and the banking system as a whole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Scientific Proceedings of Ostroh Academy National University Series, Economics is the property of National University of Ostroh Academy and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article aims at assessing cryptocurrency dynamics in global economy; studying the prospects and risks of its use in business activities; suggesting approaches to recognize, record and value cryptocurrency in the accounting system of domestic enterprises. The article considers the prospects and risks of using cryptocurrencies by domestic businesses and identifies the importance of developing digital assets at an enterprise. The urgency of developing such accounting and of the necessity to manage cryptocurrencies at an enterprise is substantiated. It is established that the attitude to cryptocurrency and the level of development of the regulatory field significantly vary from state to state, and thus international regulations govern neither the use of nor accounting for such assets. The article substantiates the compliance of cryptocurrency with the recognition criteria for enterprise assets, thus making it necessary and possible for an enterprise accounting system to recognize cryptocurrency. The authors substantiate the options for attributing cryptocurrency to various types of enterprise assets. Due to the lack of regulation of cryptocurrency accounting at the legislative level, guidelines are suggested for the cryptocurrency accounting process, which include options for classifying cryptocurrency depending on the purpose of its use, namely: classifying cryptocurrency as intangible enterprise assets, but distinguishing between current and non-current assets, and monetary and non-monetary ones. Each of these options is accompanied by the use of separate accounts and the order of recording the valuation, use and disposal of cryptocurrency. Necessity to revalue cryptocurrencies due to their high volatility is substantiated. It is suggested to conduct revaluation of cryptocurrency to ensure objective valuation of assets and that of the enterprise in the form of revaluation (increase/decrease in the value) and by determining exchange rate differences [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose. Apply integrated approaches for the air exchange rate determination based on CO2 concentration in educational and residential buildings of Ukraine. Methods. Taking into account variability of building's visitors and occupants operational and behavioral features experimental and calculated determination of the air exchange rate are considered. Results. Recommendations for providing comfort conditions in terms of air quality in the considered objects premises, recommendations on the premises operating conditions, ventilation schedule. Scientific novelty. The comprehensive approach to in-depth analysis of energy consumption has been developed, procedures for assessing the air quality and the level of air exchange in buildings have been improved taking into account the variability of operating conditions. The practical significance. Experimental studies of changes in CO2 concentration were conducted in three schools, in higher education institution and in residential building. The research results allowed to establish the actual level of CO2 concentration and air change rate under different operational and behavioral conditions in buildings during working hours, subject to comfortable conditions, and during non-use hours. The research results also help to determine the dynamics of changes in the studied factor over time under the building performance indicators influence. The obtained results allow to provide recommendations on ensuring the quality of indoor air exchange and on providing comfort working, studying and living conditions. The use of experimental and calculated air exchange rate values for various premises would allow to avoid in mathematical modeling the overestimation of the level of buildings energy consumption, which arises when standard air change rate values is using. So the obtained results allow to approximate more accurately the mathematical modeling results of buildings energy efficiency to the actual conditions and help to choose the optimal schedule for the building engineering networks managing considering comfort conditions with intermittent operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this article is to improve the theoretical, methodological and practical grounds of monetary policy in the context of economic transformations. The main tasks of monetary regulators in transformational economies are the following: 1) to ensure long-term stability of the national currency; 2) to guarantee the stability of the state financial system; 3) to stimulate economic development indirectly. The necessity to continually improve the methodological tools for implementing monetary policy, as the use of original tools for quantitative and credit easing, has been substantiated. The role of interest rate policy has been identified as the main tool of monetary regulation in countries with advanced and transformational economies. The expediency of using the Taylor rule to increase the effectiveness of monetary policy in Ukraine has been substantiated. The article proves that in order to strengthen the monetary policy efficiency in the strategic perspective, and to approach intermediate and end goals, such policy should be based on a combination of floating exchange rate (of various types), inflation targeting, and adaptive use of other tools (interest rates, monetary aggregates, etc.). The methodological and application-specific peculiarities of implementing restrictive and incentive monetary policy have been outlined. It has been established that the monetary regulator mainly applied restrictive monetary policy in Ukraine in 2005-2020, but loosened it, when the socio-economic situation became challenging. The main features of inflation targeting have also been indicated, with the substantiation of its application in transformational economies, and in Ukraine, in particular. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Ekonomika APK is the property of Economy of Argo-Industrial Complex and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Problems of Economy is the property of Research Centre for Industrial Developmen Problems of Nas and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Financial & Credit Activity: Problems of Theory & Practice is the property of University of Banking of the National Bank of Ukraine and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article considers methods of assessment of optimal parameters of the dealing service of the bank with a limited base of counteragents. The methods are based on a mathematical model of microstructure of the interbank currency market [5]. The methods allow identification of optimal parameters of the infrastructure of the dealing service of the bank based on indicators of dynamics of currency rates and market environment of the bank. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper describes development of the model structure of the euro/dollar with 2 lags members of input, 11 input factors with sampling 5 days or month and 2 controls with sampling 5 days. We choose the factors to take into account the theoretical material on the subject and to achieve the highest possible quality at such high rate sampling. 5 days sampling characterized by significant speculative fluctuations require frequent adjustment of the coefficient. At the second stage we synthesize the optimality criterion in the form of generalized variance. By minimizing the optimality criterion we define the equation for optimal decision-making on both controls. Disadvantages of this approach are that the model may change over time requiring its constant adjustments and possible lack of harmonization between the FED and ECB. Results of numerical simulations show possibility of reducing the synthesized indicator in the form of generalized variance. The model development allows evaluating the influence of different variables and considering possible impact of changes in control on the input given the historical relationship between variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper describes the development of the model structure of the hryvnia/dollar in the ARMAX form. The model inputs are seven factors and one control, which are measured at different time intervals. This allows us considering the model with multirate sampling, where the output coordinate and control are measured every ten days, and the factors in their turn have three time rates: every ten days, monthly and quarterly. Based on this model, we propose and test the approach to the optimal decision based on the optimality decision-making in the form of the generalized variance. To simplify its usage, we derive an equation for determining the optimal solution based on the proposed optimality criterion. Relying on historical data, we analyze the reduction of the generalized variance for the historical horizon of testing in general, which suggests the possibility of managing the exchange rate hryvnia/dollar and reducing the fluctuations of the output coordinate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]