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Start Over Topic water supply Publication Year Range Last 3 years Language ukrainian
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1. ПРИРОДНО-СОЦІАЛЬНІ НАСЛІДКИ ВОЄННИХ ДІЙ НА ТЕРИТОРІЇ ХАРКІВСЬКОЇ ОБЛАСТІ

Author

Дмітрієв, Святослав and Решетченко, Світлана

Subjects
BODIES of water, WATER supply, REMOTE-sensing images, DRINKING water, WATER use, WATER shortages
Abstract

This study is a continuation of long-term scientific work on studying the impact of climate change on the ecological state of water bodies with the involvement of a large array of statistical data for the period 1961-2020. But since in 2022 the studied territory became a theater of active war actions, it became necessary and scientific relevant to make a research about their impact on the state of water bodies. This is important in the context of changes in people's living conditions, as water is a vital resource, especially in this region, where due to the specifics of water use and the speed of climate change, water resources have undergone a rather rapid degradation, and according to forecasts, Kharkiv region was to face problems of shortage of water resources already in the coming decades. Military operations have accelerated the deterioration of water bodies, and sources of drinking water are especially sensitive to such changes. Thus, in the city of Kharkiv, according to laboratory studies, out of 11 sources of drinking water, the water is suitable for consumption in only 1. To study changes in the state of water bodies, cartographic analysis was actively used, which makes it possible to assess the spatial distribution and differentiation of the speed of these changes, and to establish relationships between the factors affecting this, such as the location of the network of settlements and the concentration of the population, as well as the degree of proximity to the front line and intensity of shelling from all types of ballistic weapons. To determine the changes that took place after the beginning of the full-scale invasion due to the lack of statistical data from stationary monitoring points, data from satellite images were used. The scientific novelty of this research is the study of modern changes in the ecological state of water bodies and their comparison with previous changes due to the nature of climatic dynamics, since taking into account the proximity of the research object to the zone of active hostilities, scientific activity in this area is very complicated, and therefore Currently, studies on a similar topic are just beginning to appear, but they are fragmentary in nature, and therefore there is a scientific need to create a more comprehensive study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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2. ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ МІСЬКОГО ДОБОВОГО ВОДОСПОЖИВАННЯ

Subjects
модель, model, water supply, водопостачання, forecast, прогнозування, forecasting, штучна нейронна мережа, часовий ряд, statistical analysis, water demand, прогноз, статистичний аналіз, попит на воду, time series, artificial neural network
Abstract

Problem. The problem of building models and methods of forecasting the daily need for urban water is considered. Much more attention needs to be given to forecasting methods if utilities are to make decisions that reflect the level of uncertainty precisely in future daily demand forecasts. Daily water consumption, unlike annual and monthly water consumption, is much more highly dependent on chance. Goal. The main goal of this paper is to obtain enough accurate forecasts of daily urban water consumption. Method. An algorithm for calculating the urban daily water demand forecast based on the concept of same-type days of water demand for previous years has been suggested. Scientific novelty. The originality of the method lies in the fact that it does not use neural network models, but still makes it possible to obtain enough accurate forecasts of daily urban water needs. Results. The presented algorithm for calculating the urban daily water demand forecast has been implemented in the form of a software package and has been tested for many years in real-life conditions. The average absolute percentage error of the daily forecast of urban water demand for one month does not exceed 5%. Practical significance. The practical value of this work lies in the fact that the presented software complex for calculating the forecast of the city's daily water demand can be used in the information services of city utility companies to make operational and tactical decisions regarding the provision of water supply services to the population., Розглянуто моделі та методи прогнозування міської потреби у воді. Набагато більше уваги необхідно приділяти методам прогнозування, якщо комунальні підприємства мають приймати рішення, які відображатимуть рівень невизначеності саме в щоденних прогнозах попиту. Добове споживання води, на відміну від річного та місячного споживання води, дуже сильно залежить від випадку. Основною метою даної роботи є отримання достатньо точних прогнозів добового водоспоживання міста. Запропоновано алгоритм розрахунку прогнозу міської добової потреби води на основі концепції однотипних днів водоспоживання за попередні роки. Цей метод не використовує моделі нейронних мереж, але все ж дозволяє отримати досить точні прогнози щоденної міської потреби у воді. Представлений алгоритм розрахунку прогнозу міської добової потреби у воді реалізований у вигляді програмного комплексу та пройшов багаторічну перевірку в реальних умовах. Середня абсолютна відсоткова похибка добового прогнозу водо споживання міст на один місяць не перевищує 5%. Розроблений програмний комплекс для розрахунку прогнозу міської добової потреби у воді може бути використаний в інформаційних службах міських комунальних підприємств для прийняття оперативних, тактичних і стратегічних рішень щодо надання послуг водопостачання населенню.

Published
2023
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