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The article formulates the assumptions for the baseline scenario for the development of Ukrainian industry as to the dynamics of the world economy, world food and commodity price indices, the population size of Ukraine, the exchange rate of hryvnia against the dollar and the euro, the dynamics of wages in Ukraine and the EU, the propensity to invest in the Ukrainian economy, the value of the world GDP deflator. The initial data for the base scenario for the development of Ukrainian industry in 2020-2035 have been determined. The baseline scenario is conservative and reflects the continuing trends in the national industry that were observed until 2019. The main results of modeling the baseline scenario for the development of the national industry for 2020-2035 by sectors have been presented. The growth rates of value added by sectors, as well as the growth rates of GDP from 2010 to 2035 have been calculated. Changes in the share of sectors of the economy of Ukraine for 2011-2020 (fact) and from 2021 to 2035 (basic scenario) have been presented. It should be noted that the development of the scenarios was based on the continuation of the trends of 2010-2019 without taking into account unpredictable factors (such as the coronavirus pandemic or military combat), so the main goal is to assess general economic trends and factors rather than accurately predict certain indicators in specific conditions. The dynamics of relative indicators that indicate the structural features of the process of value added creation was calculated and analyzed, including capital-labor ratio, capital productivity, efficiency of labor costs and labor productivity for each sector. It has been established that in the baseline scenario, the economy of Ukraine will experience steady growth in the main sectors: mining, by an average of 1% per year; agriculture by 2-2,5% per year, while the largest growth will be observed in the processing industry, above 4% per year. This is generally in line with the trends in the global economy: growth is mainly concentrated in processing industries rather than industries that extract natural resources. The annual GDP growth, according to the simulation results, will be in the range of 3-5%, which approximately corresponds to the forecasts of various world institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industrialization, which is currently taking place in the world under new technological conditions, guarantees successful economic development. In this regard, analysts, entrepreneurs, government officials, politicians at the local and national levels are interested in timely and reliable information about the state and prospects for the development of the national industry. To get signals about changes in economic activity in the near future, economists use leading indicators -- dynamic data series that demonstrate a fairly stable connection with the basic data series of the macroeconomic development cycle in a particular country. However, in connection with the peculiarities of development, each state has to find its own solutions in this subject area. The article focuses on leading indicators of industry development. The objectives of the work are to generalize the accumulated experience in the field of short-term forecasting of industry based on the use of the dynamics of indicators that have a leading connection with industrial production, and to substantiate recommendations regarding the possibilities of their use for short-term forecasting of the industrial development of Ukraine. As a result of the generalization of the world experience of using leading indicators, considering the national industrial specifics, two working hypotheses were suggested in the research process. The first one is based on the fact that: when forecasting the turning points of economic activity in the national industry, it is necessary to focus on general and specific leading indicators of countries that are the main partners of Ukraine, especially those to which goods of the industrial group are exported; the list of candidate indicators should include world energy prices, taking into account the significant dependence of national production on hydrocarbon imports; in addition to the real money supply, the dynamics of industrial value added are influenced by other monetary factors, namely -- the hryvnia exchange rate to the dollar and the index of the US dollar, which is explained by the openness of the national economy, its small size, specialization in the export of raw materials and significant dependence on the import of industrial goods, necessary to create products with high value added. For further verification of this hypothesis, it is offered to divide the relevant indicators into four groups: those based on the results of enterprise surveys, indicators of financial activity of enterprises, monetary and socio-economic indicators. At the same time, the availability of data and promptness of updating (at least quarterly) is a key condition for their inclusion in the selection of candidates. The second working hypothesis is that the proposed indicators can serve as ones to provide early signals about the dynamics of the value added created in the industry. In order to verify it in practice, it is necessary to create a database of indicators that can be used to predict the dynamics of gross value added in industry, perform mathematical calculations (build quantitative dependencies of value added on selected indicators considering the time lag), integrate individual indicators into a composite index of industrial development. The subject of further research is solving these problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article substantiates the expediency of modeling the development of national industry taking into account how the main interconnected key sectors of Ukrainian economy (not only processing and extractive industries, but also agriculture) are developing, as well as taking into account the factors that cause changes in this development over time. Based on previous researches, multiplicative production function has been chosen as the base for building the model, which was modified by taking into account the peculiarities of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the specifics of individual industries in Ukraine. The economic-mathematical model of long-term development of specified branches of economy of Ukraine in the conditions of digitalization was proposed, in which the value added in the branch is the dependent variable, and the classic components of production functions (labor and the capital) are the independent variables, as well as the new factor - digitalization, and factors, specific to individual industries (world food price index for agriculture and world raw material price index for the extractive industry). A specific feature of the model is also the use of correction factors that reflect the change in the return of factors over time and increase the accuracy of calculations. In addition, separate models have been developed to calculate each of the main factors, based on the dynamics of investments, taking into account the recursive influence of value added, propensity to invest, the condition of the world economy and other specific factors. The calculation of value added in agriculture, extractive and processing industries of Ukraine in 2010-2019 was performed using the model. The adequacy of the model was validated based on the results of its parameterization, which showed sufficient accuracy for the implementation on practice, as the average absolute error of approximation ranges from 2.94% to 4.14% depending on the industry, with abnormal 2014-2015 excluded from the calculations. The value of GDP in the country as a whole was calculated on the basis of the results of value added calculations by key industries. Taking into account the fact that the proposed set of models does not include all industries, a regression model was used to calculate GDP, to which value added for the identified key industries was used as factor. It is established that the proposed model is quite accurate and can be used to calculate the GDP of Ukraine on the basis of value added calculations in agriculture, extractive and processing industries. Given the prospects of practical use of the model for management decisions, the elasticity of the main driving factor (investments) of the development of individual industries was assessed for the main variables, which, in particular, showed that the exchange rate of hryvnia to the US dollar has a negative impact on investments, and the most pronounced - on investments in fixed assets of the processing industry. This questions the widespread idea that the devaluation of the hryvnia stimulates domestic production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]