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This study aims to uncover the impact of interest rates, gold prices, and the USD exchange rate on the BIST 100 index. For this purpose, the effects of the weighted average interest rate on bank deposits, the price of gold in Turkish Lira per gram, and the USD exchange rate according to the Central Bank of Türkiye's buying rate on the BIST 100 index are revealed through monthly data from January 2002 to November 2023, encompassing 262 observations. The analysis employs the Fourier ADF unit root test, Fourier Bootstrap ARDL test, and Fourier Bootstrap Quantile causality test. The findings indicate a long-term negative relationship between interest rates and the BIST 100 index, while asserting a long-term positive relationship with gold prices and the USD exchange rate. Moreover, according to the short-term relationships facilitated by Fourier functions, a positive and significant relationship exists between interest rates and the BIST 100 index at two lags; a negative effect in the current period, a positive effect at one lag, and a negative effect at two lags are observed between the USD exchange rate and the BIST 100 index. No short-term impact of gold prices on the BIST 100 index is observed. Additionally, considering Fourier function-driven causality relationships, causality is detected from interest rates to the BIST 100 index at the 9th quantile and from the BIST 100 index to interest rates at the 1st quantile; from gold prices to the BIST 100 index at the 3rd quantile; and from the USD exchange rate to the BIST 100 index at the 3rd and 4th quantiles.. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bu çalışmada BIST100 hisse senedi endeksinin faiz, döviz kuru ve altın fiyatları açısından duyarlılığının belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla 4 Ocak 2000-28 Haziran 2021 dönemini kapsayan günlük veriler kullanılarak tüm örneklem dönemine ilişkin değişkenler arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönem ilişkilerinin COVID-19 pandemi dönemi ile kıyaslandığında nasıl seyrettiği Johansen-Juselius eşbütünleşme analizi, Granger nedensellik testi, varyans ayrıştırma ve etki-tepki analizleri uygulanarak araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, eşbütünleşme analizi için bağımlı değişkenin BIST100 endeksi getirisi olduğu durumda değişkenler arasında bir uzun dönem ilişki bulunmuş olup; altın fiyatlarının BIST100 üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi bulunamamıştır. Granger nedensellik analizi sonuçları ise ele alınan dönem için BIST 100 endeksi ile hem döviz kuru hem de faiz serisi arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını saptarken, BIST100 endeksinden altın fiyatlarına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi ortaya koymuştur. COVID-19 dönemi ele alındığında %5 anlamlılık düzeyinde seriler arasında bir uzun dönem ilişkisi bulunamamış olup, %10 anlamlılık düzeyinde bulunan bir eşbütünleşik ilişki için ise hata düzeltme mekanizması yalnızca bağımlı değişkenin faiz oranları olduğu durumda çalışmıştır. Ayrıca bu dönemde genel dönemdeki kısa dönem ilişkilerinin tersine BIST100 endeksindeki değişimi serinin kendisinden sonra en çok açıklayan değişkenin altın fiyatları olduğu saptanmış olup, altın fiyatlarından BIST100’e doğru ve BIST100’den faiz oranlarına doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkileri elde edilmiştir.

İnsanoğlu tarafından doğada kullanılmaya başlanan ilk madenlerden biri olan altın, birçok medeniyet tarafından öncelikle mücevher ve süs eşyası olarak, tarihsel süreç içerisinde ise para yerine kullanılmasıyla uluslararası para sisteminin temelini oluşturmaktadır. Parasal sistem içindeki önemini git gide kaybetmesine rağmen altın, günümüzde hala finans ve güvenilir yatırım aracı olarak kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’deki altın fiyatlarını etkileyen faktörleri incelemek amacıyla Ocak 2000-Temmuz 2019 döneminde ARDL Sınır Testi ile uzun dönemli ilişki incelenmiştir. Yapılan literatür taraması kapsamında, altın fiyatlarını etkileyebilecek faktörler olarak Londra piyasası altın ons fiyatı, ABD enflasyon oranı, Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi, ABD Merkez Bankası faiz oranı ve reel efektif döviz kuru değişkenleri seçilmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlara göre, değişkenlerin uzun dönemde eş bütünleşik olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır.

The rapid development of information technologies has led to the formation of a "big data" network by increasing the coverage area of the internet network. The use of big data has gained importance in many fields from science to industry, from the private sector to the public. The use of this big data makes the users of the data advantageous compared to their competitors. The aim of this study is to examine the causality relationship between the data obtained from Google Trends, which presents the search frequency of the keyword searched in the Google search engine and the course of gold prices. The data set of the study includes monthly data on the search frequency of the keyword "gold" in the Google search engine within the borders of Turkey between 01.01.2004 and 01.12.2021. In the study, the stationarity of the variables was analyzed, and then the Johansen Cointegration test was used to determine the long-term relationship between the variables. At the last stage, Granger Causality Analysis was performed. As a result of the study, one-way Granger causality towards gold prospecting was determined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Covid-19 ilk olarak Çin’in Wuhan kentinde Aralık 2019’da tespit edilmiş olup bu tarihten sonra kısa bir süre içerisinde global bir problem haline gelmiştir. Daha sonra da Dünya Sağlık Örgütü (WHO) tarafından 11 Mart 2020’de pandemi olarak ilan edilmiştir. Virüsün uzun dönemde hem sağlığa hem de ekonomiye nasıl etkilerde bulunacağı henüz bilinmemektedir. Bu çalışma, bölgesel Covid-19 vakaları, altın fiyatları, Euro kuru ile Borsa İstanbul şehir endeksleri arasındaki uzun ve kısa vadeli ilişkileri ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Nüfus yoğunluğunun en yüksek olduğu üç büyük şehre göre BIST İstanbul, BIST İzmir ve BIST Ankara şehir endeksleri seçilmiştir. Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Sağlık Bakanlığı Covid-19 Bilgilendirme Sayfası web sitesinde 29 Haziran 2020’den bu yana açıklanan bölgesel Covid-19 vaka sayıları ile şehir endeksleri eşleştirilmiştir. Analizlerde, serilerin farklı seviyelerde durağan bulunması nedeniyle, ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) Sınır testi kullanılarak, eşbütünleşme ilişkisi incelenmiştir. 29.06.2020 – 23.11.2020 dönemine ait günlük veriler kullanılmıştır. BIST İstanbul, BIST İzmir şehir endeksleri ile bölgesel Covid-19 vakaları, altın fiyatları ve Euro kuru arasında uzun dönemli ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Diğer yandan, BIST Ankara şehir endeksi için elde edilen katsayılar anlamlı bulunmamıştır.

Copyright of Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews / Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar is the property of Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews / Finans Politik & Ekomomik Yorumlar and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

One of the most important steps required for future planning in gold investment is being forecasted the prices in the future periods. Starting from here, it was aimed to be forecasted Cumhuriyet gold prices of Turkey in the future. For this purpose, ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), Holt-Winters (Additive and Multiplicative models), Simple Exponential Correction and Holt Linear Trend from time series methods were used. Forecasting analysis results that were made with these methods were also compared on the basis of RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) and Sum of Squared Residuals (SSR), which are the forecast evaluation criteria. According to the basic criteria, ARIMA was determined to be the best performing method. In the forecast analysis made with the established ARIMA model, it was forecasted that Cumhuriyet gold prices will continue to increase in the first six months of 2021. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gold is preferred for many reasons such as high convertibility worldwide, being a reliable investment instrument against financial fluctuations and not losing value against inflation. This situation causes the demand for gold to increase day by day. According to World Gold Council data for the year 2019, Turkey is among the countries with the most gold reserves has risen to 18 as well. For this aim, Turkey's causal relationship between stock prices and gold prices, with the monthly data for January 2005 to September 2019, has been tested with Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis. The results of the analysis show that there is a one-way causality relationship from gold prices to stock prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) defines the minimum capital required for the risks assumed by banks or the maximum risk level considering the existing capital. In the context of the proposals submitted within the framework of Basel Accords, the current scope of these risks (credit and market) has been expanded in compliance with newer Basel Accords and operational risks have been considered in calculating the capital adequacy. Undoubtedly, the risk-taking behavior of banks is influenced by the mobility of various macroeconomic factors in the market. In this context, this study aims to detect whether the foreign exchange rate fluctuations, gold prices, and risk appetite have significant impacts on the CAR. Accordingly, monthly standard deviations of TL/USD exchange rate, gold price, and risk appetite data are calculated throughout January 2010 - December 2019 and analyzed whether they have impacts on the CAR. The regression analysis results assert a significant and positive impact of TL/USD exchange rate on the change in the CAR, whereas the risk appetite has a negative impact, and the gold market does not affect the change in the CAR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Covid-19 Pandemic or in other words this century's black death affects deeply on health sector at the same time financial markets. İn this study it has been examined whether there is significant relationship between gold prices and Covid-19 by ARDL modelling with using daily data 22.01.-08.04.2020. It has been identified gold prices as dependent variable, total Covid-19 cases in the world, total Covid-19 cases in Turkey, exchanges rate (US Dolar), Turkey political interest rate, gasoline prices on pump as independent variables in the model. In the frame of the ARDL model is applied due staiblity of selected variables at different levels, it has consisted within the findings of the short term and long term. According to the error correction model results, the long-term capture rate of the model is 51 percent. Gold is the most known and traditional financial instrument that can be observed how investors develop behavior in situations that cause global panic to financial instruments.According to empirical findings, there are negative effects on gold prices with exchanges rate and Turkey political interest rate, moreover there are positive relationships between gold prices and gasoline prices on pump, total Covid-19 cases in the World, total Covid-19 cases in Turkey's lags and gold prices lags in the short run. İn the long run there are cointegrated relationships between gold prices and all variables except total Covid-19 cases in Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gold, which has a wide usage area, has become an extremely important asset with its use as an investment tool in recent years. Especially in terms of portfolio management, due to the long-term return of gold, the effect of gold price on macroeconomic and financial variables become vital. In this study, the relationship between the London FTSE100 Stock Index, which is the most important and valued indices in the world, and gold prices is examined. The main purpose of the study is to determine whether there is a long-term relationship between the variables. The study was carried out with appropriate econometric time series analysis covering monthly data between January 2010 and April 2020 period. For the purpose of the study, unit root, Co-integration and Granger causality tests are employed. As a result, it is concluded that there is no long-term co-integrated among the variables, but there is a bi-directional causality relationship in the short term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As at the top of the precious metals, gold has been historically seen as a symbol of wealth, economic power and prosperity by both countries and households. There are many studies supply and demand based on discussions of the factors affecting gold prices in the literature. Especially in recent years the gold prices have seen the historical peak level might well be the main reason of choosing subject of this study. In this study, it is aimed whether there is long run Granger causality between gold prices and other chosen variables with using weekly data between 2015 and 2019. In the model, while gold prices are determined as dependent variables, oil prices, BIST100 Index, exchange rate (USD) are determined as independent variables of VIX Index. In the study, it is examined whether the existence of a long-term relationship between variables with using the cointegration tests. In addition, in order to reveal the effect of the shocks in the variables in the long term, VAR analysis was applied. According to the results of VAR analysis, a longterm relationship has been determined between gold prices and other independent variables. In the light of the empirical findings, it can be said that there are Granger causality relationships between gold prices and BIST 100 Index, oil prices and exchange rate variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Individuals in developing economies use many alternative investment instruments to protect the purchasing power of national currency against inflation. One of these alternatives is the gold investment. Scientific studies investigate whether or the gold investment decision of individuals is really hedging instrument during the inflationary periods of economies. This study, 'Is it a hedging instrument gold investment in Turkey in inflationary period?' tries to answer its the question. While doing this, 1994-2019 period was analyzed by using gold prices and CPI monthly time series data. In the study, the relationship between gold prices and CPI was investigated with ADF, KPSS and Ng-Perron from of the traditional unit root tests, Lee ve Strazicich unit root test with endogenous structural break, a TodaYamamoto with structural breaks causality test. Our findings, in the period under, review doesn't support the view that an advantage against inflation of gold investment in Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between stock prices, gold and crude oil prices in 2003:01 and 2018:06 periods. The stability of the variables was analyzed by a structural break (Zivot-Andrews) unit root test. Whether or not there is a long-term relationship between the variables was investigated by the Gregory-Hansen structural fracture cointegration test. The causality relationship between the variables was examined by the Hatemi-J (2012)Asymmetric Causality test and Balcılar and others (2010) a Boostrap Rolling Window Test. In the Hatemi-J Asymmetric Causality test, it is seen that there is a causality from negative shocks in oil prices to stock prices positive shocks. It is seen that there is a causality from stock prices positive shocks towards positive shocks in petroleum. Again, there is a causality from the stock prices negative shocks towards negative shocks in oil. Finally, there are causality from stock prices negative shocks to positive shocks in petroleum. In addition, stock prices negative shocks were found to have a causality towards negative shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Itobiad: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches / İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi is the property of Itobiad: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The aim of this study was to examine the effect of the period 1997M1-2016M5 stock return of oil and gold prices. Johansen-Juselius Cointegration study, Impulse Responses, variance decomposition and Granger causality analysis were used.The analysis results in the of one unit increase in the price of oil has created a decrease of 1,516 units BIST100 stock returns, in other hand of one unit increase in the price of gold has created a increase of 0.455 units BIST100 stock returns. In other words a negative correlation between oil prices and BIST100, positive relationship between gold prices with BIST100 have been identified. is also a result of the causality analysis were identified two way relationship between oil prices and BIST100. Gold prices are among the statistical BIST100 stock returns that as there was no causation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Social Sciences Research / Sosyal Bilimler Arastirmalari Dergisi is the property of ODU Journal of Social Sciences Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Gold, is placed at the 1B group of rare metals and has the feature of being the most known and recognized metal in every segments of the society. In this study the panel data anaysis which has several advantages compared to one dimension analysis is used and the existence of effects of gold prices on the ISE 100 Index is investigated, and moreover if there is an effect, the direction and magnitude of this effect is aimed to be determined. For this aim the fixed effect models and random effect models are emphasized. As the time series August 1995-March 2011 period and as the horizontal cross section 9 different independent variables' data are analyzed. As a result of these analysis it appears that the gold prices have not a direct effect on the ISE 100 Index, but a factor among the parameters explaining the differences in the the ISE 100 Index. Another point which takes attention at the result of this study is except the foreign trade balance, the all other variables precede the exchange rate in the ranking of effects to the ISE 100 Index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]